Week 8 Playoff Prgonostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 7 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76683-Week-7-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: William & Mary
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
Colonial: Delaware, Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford, Chattanooga, Georgia Southern

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Lehigh
Wofford @ South Carolina State
Chattanooga @ Southeast Missouri
Bethune Cookman @ Georgia Southern


SECOND ROUND GAMES

Wofford/South Carolina State winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Liberty @ Villanova

Northern Iowa @ #5 Eastern Washington
Robert Morris/Lehigh winner @ #4 Delaware


Bethune Cookman/Georgia Southern winner @ #3 Jacksonville State
Montana State @ William & Mary

Western Illinois @Montana
Chattanooga/Southeast Missouri winner @ #2 Stephen F. Austin

NOTES
Lots of games not going the way I suspected and really putting MANY teams on the brink with so many possible setbacks still on tap.

Going with SoCon to get another team in over a Pioneer #1, NEC #2 or some of the other possibilities...

New Hampshire is the favorite for the last CAA spot. With UMass having games at JMU and home vs UD after their loss to UNH, they are behind the eight ball. Richmond still has at Villanova and at William & Mary, so keeping them grounded. JMU's 1-3 start in league play hurts TREMENDOUSLY. W&M is behind Delaware in seeding because Tribe has FBS game remaining

As far as SoCon, Chattanooga has to win 3 of final 4. If they hold homefield, the Nov. 20 game could be a play-in for them and potentially Wofford, pending how things shape up.

No second bid for SLC unless SHSU wins out.

[Chi Panther]

IF UNI makes the playoffs they will be hosting in round one.

Another thing I'm not sure many ppl realize, but UNI is only starting 3 seniors. We may have just figured out the TO bug. Our loses at SIU in OT, by 2 points at Home to #5 SFA where we turned the ball over 3 times in the red zone, and our defense only gave up 13 points to Iowa State (who looks better today).

I can only hope we have turned the corner. GO CATS!!!!xthumbsupx

[TheBisonator]

I knew I wouldn't see NDSU on there after another win, but I do not understand why Georgia Southern (4-3) gets an at-large over NDSU (5-3, win vs. a BCS team)...

And I know WIU beat us, but our overall resume of wins looks better than WIU's does...

[TexasTerror]

I knew I wouldn't see NDSU on there after another win, but I do not understand why Georgia Southern (4-3) gets an at-large over NDSU (5-3, win vs. a BCS team)...

And I know WIU beat us, but our overall resume of wins looks better than WIU's does...

WIU gets in due to head-to-head. Committee has habit of doing that.

Your loss to ILST hurts and yes, Georgia Southern and NDSU are going to be tough to dessiminate, but I am projecting for Ga Southern to beat Appy State as their way in - though keeping Appy at #1 right now to avoid the wrath!

[Chi Panther]

WIU won't be able to run on UNI. We'll give them another L

[tribefan40]

Total Crap (not on you) that W&M will get penalized for a loss to UNC. I know it will happen, but it just doesn't make it right. I do like the look of that bracket though...

[TexasTerror]

Total Crap (not on you) that W&M will get penalized for a loss to UNC. I know it will happen, but it just doesn't make it right. I do like the look of that bracket though...

Think about BCS... better for 'Bama to get that loss earlier in the season than later. If UD runs the table, they'll have just one loss and even though W&M (if you run the table) gets the AQ, UD is better positioned.

[tribefan40]

Yeah I'm with you, as long as the brackets shape up that way. If the reward for a seeding will be meeting APP earlier, in Boone, I think I'm ok without it.

[El Gato]

Agree that the SLC appears to be a one bid conference this year.

Only SHSU and UCA remain eligible for an at large bid (well, SFA too, but I'm pretty sure they are gonna win out and get the at-large bid).

But you say if SHSU wins out they may get an at large bid. But what if UCA wins out, do they not get considered for an at large bid? They were at least ranked at one point in the season.

SHSU OOC losses against Western Illinois and FBS Baylor
UCA OOC losses against FBS Tulsa
Both teams have conference losses to SFA, but UCA does have a loss against a not good NWST team.
However, UCA and SHSU meet in the second to last game of the season, and if both teams haven't lost another conference game at that point then one of you will eliminate the other from at large consideration (7 wins).

All that said, if UCA wins out why wouldn't they be considered for an at large bid?

[B&G]

I'm going with a different scenario here including a shocking participant who makes the field with a late surge...

Round 1
- Liberty @ South Carolina St
- Robert Morris @ New Hampshire
- Lehigh @ Bethune-Cookman
- South Dakota St @ Montana St

Round 2
Liberty/SCSU Winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Wofford @ Villanova

SDSU/MSU Winner @ #4 Stephen F Austin
SE Missouri St @ Montana

RMU/UNH Winner @ #2 Jacksonville St
Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa

Lehigh/B-C Winner @ #3 William & Mary
Chattanooga @ Delaware

[TexasTerror]

But you say if SHSU wins out they may get an at large bid. But what if UCA wins out, do they not get considered for an at large bid? They were at least ranked at one point in the season.

Bears do have 3 of 4 remaining at home, but I think their loss to NWST - as you spelled out later - is the difference maker.


All that said, if UCA wins out why wouldn't they be considered for an at large bid?

They would - especially in light of some of the other teams who are on the verge of being eliminated from consideration (at least as far as chasing down seven Div I wins is concerned).

[JSU02]

Total Crap (not on you) that W&M will get penalized for a loss to UNC. I know it will happen, but it just doesn't make it right. I do like the look of that bracket though...

Beat them and you wont get "penalized"

[TexasTerror]

Round 1
- Liberty @ South Carolina St
- Robert Morris @ New Hampshire
- Lehigh @ Bethune-Cookman
- South Dakota St @ Montana St

For some reason, I am finding it hard to believe the NCAA would put two HBCUs in the first round. They very well might, but seems that you'd have a situation like the NCAA basketball tournament, where the NCAA wouldn't want to offend the MEAC.

[B&G]

For some reason, I am finding it hard to believe the NCAA would put two HBCUs in the first round. They very well might, but seems that you'd have a situation like the NCAA basketball tournament, where the NCAA wouldn't want to offend the MEAC.

I was thinking this could be their way of throwing the conference a bone... giving them a situation where they could have two home games guaranteed.

[TexasTerror]

I was thinking this could be their way of throwing the conference a bone... giving them a situation where they could have two home games guaranteed.

I'm not sure Bethune Cookman has the $$$ to host a home game... guess time will tell.

South Carolina State most certainly would fork it over.

[chattanoogamocs]

Chattanooga has about 400K to spend...since we didn't have to spend it on the title game. :)

[UNHWildCats]

This is my new bracket prediction. This is based on how I think teams will finish looking at remaining schedules, not for where teams are right now. It was just pointed out to me too.. but I didn't mean to put A&M in there, that should be South Carolina State.

http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/5303/bracket21.png
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/5519/bracket22.png

[siuham]

South Dakota State is going to end up 6-2 in conference. Silly.

[caribbeanhen]

geez, now we're down to 3 CAA teams? UNH, UMASS and JMU are better than half your field, and dont think that URI and Maine would not be feared against a few of your playoff teams

[UNH Fanboi]

geez, now we're down to 3 CAA teams? UNH, UMASS and JMU are better than half your field, and dont think that URI and Maine would not be feared against a few of your playoff teams

Whether or not they are better is ireelevant, the question is whether they get to 7 wins. I think at least 1 of tohse 3 will, but it's not guranteed.

[WrenFGun]

Yeah, I think if any of UNH, UMass or JMU get to 7 wins, they're in based on their quality of victories (UNH would have wins over JMU, UMass, Richmond and either 'Nova or W&M, JMU has a win over Virginia Tech, and UMass has the only win over W&M).

[TexasTerror]

This is my new bracket prediction. This is based on how I think teams will finish looking at remaining schedules, not for where teams are right now. It was just pointed out to me too.. but I didn't mean to put A&M in there, that should be South Carolina State.

You do not have SFA as a top five seed... do you think they are going to lose to someone? Who in the SLC is going to beat the Lumberjacks? You either are implementing your ECB or you really think SFA is going to lose.


Whether or not they are better is ireelevant, the question is whether they get to 7 wins. I think at least 1 of tohse 3 will, but it's not guranteed.

Exactly. Those teams mentioned from the CAA- UNH, UMass and JMU - better get their act together or they are going to be unable to get to seven wins.


Yeah, I think if any of UNH, UMass or JMU get to 7 wins, they're in based on their quality of victories (UNH would have wins over JMU, UMass, Richmond and either 'Nova or W&M, JMU has a win over Virginia Tech, and UMass has the only win over W&M).

Correct - those teams would get in if they get to seven. Tough to say they will...

[Cocky]

Yeah, I think if any of UNH, UMass or JMU get to 7 wins, they're in based on their quality of victories (UNH would have wins over JMU, UMass, Richmond and either 'Nova or W&M, JMU has a win over Virginia Tech, and UMass has the only win over W&M).

UMASS will have to beat at least Delaware or W&M? to get to 7?

[WrenFGun]

UMASS will have to beat at least Delaware or W&M? to get to 7?

Right ... I don't think that will happen, but at least one of them is at home ..

All three are in pretty troublesome spots .. UNH has to beat either W&M or 'Nova, too.

[tribefan40]

Beat them and you wont get "penalized"

Yes, yes you beat Ole Miss week one. We've covered that. My point is that against elite FCS competition we are playing as well as anyone right now, and will be penalized for what will probably be a loss to a talented fbs squad in mid-season form. It's happened to several other schools this year and probably will affect APP as well (unless there's an upset)at the end of the season. Just doesn't seem right. xtwocentsx

[Saint3333]

Let's say ASU and JSU win out sans Florida (still lots of football to be played of course and certainly not a given). If ASU is penalized for losing to Florida and JSU jumps them, I'd like for ASU to be paired in the JSU bracket as I don't expect them to make it to the semifinals.

[Cocky]

Let's say ASU and JSU win out sans Florida (still lots of football to be played of course and certainly not a given). If ASU is penalized for losing to Florida and JSU jumps them, I'd like for ASU to be paired in the JSU bracket as I don't expect them to make it to the semifinals.

I would be happy with that bracket. We would match up very well with App.

[LeadBolt]

Think about BCS... better for 'Bama to get that loss earlier in the season than later. If UD runs the table, they'll have just one loss and even though W&M (if you run the table) gets the AQ, UD is better positioned.

So you think that UD should be rewarded for scheduling and beating a Div 2 early in the year and not playing a BCS team and W&M should be penalized for losing to a BCS team late in the year?

[TexasTerror]

So you think that UD should be rewarded for scheduling and beating a Div 2 early in the year and not playing a BCS team and W&M should be penalized for losing to a BCS team late in the year?

It's all about timing... while we despise the FBS around here, a late season loss to FBS or FCS - is not a good one.

If Delaware wins out down the stretch that favors them while W&M would have that loss later in the year. That will in turn impact the polls, GPI that impact the seedings and playoffs.

[Cocky]

Yes, yes you beat Ole Miss week one. We've covered that. My point is that against elite FCS competition we are playing as well as anyone right now, and will be penalized for what will probably be a loss to a talented fbs squad in mid-season form. It's happened to several other schools this year and probably will affect APP as well (unless there's an upset)at the end of the season. Just doesn't seem right. xtwocentsx

I don't think you should be penalized for losing to a quality FBS but I also think we should be rewarded for beating a quality FBS program.

[LeadBolt]

It's all about timing... while we despise the FBS around here, a late season loss to FBS or FCS - is not a good one.

If Delaware wins out down the stretch that favors them while W&M would have that loss later in the year. That will in turn impact the polls, GPI that impact the seedings and playoffs.

I understand your argument, and perhaps we shouldn't have allowed UNC to reschedule to play LSU in Hotlanta when we were scheduled to play them, but it really doesn't seem logical to penalize a team for losing to a BCS program in mid-season form and reward one who ducks all the way down to Div. 2, when they are capable of beating a BCS team, as UD is, but don't even try...

[JMUNJ08]

Here's the remaining schedules for the 4 on the outside for the CAA. I think one should get there but definitely not a sure thing when you look at the sched.

JMU 4-3 (1-3)
H - UMass
A - Richmond
H - W&M
A - Maine
Strength - Wins over VT & Liberty who may both win their respective conferences
Weakness - CAA play / Offense
To get in - JMU must win the next 2 and split the last 2. This is definitely possible with UMass struggling as well and our strong play at UR.

UMass 4-3 (2-2)
A - JMU
H - Maine
H - UD
A - URI
Strength - W&M win and strong play against Michigan
Weakness - Bad L to UR because of the timing and really only propped up by 1 win vs. CAA foe
To get in - Must win their next 2 and split the last 2. URI is not a given like years past so they must take care of business early and get the road win vs. JMU to right the ship

UNH 5-3 (3-2)
H - W&M
A - Nova
H - Towson
Strength - Lehigh/JMU/UMass/UR /CCSU - all good W's which should carry weight
Weakness - Maine/URI - may very well be the 2 worst teams in the league
To get in - Must beat W&M or Nova then take care of Towson. UNH may be in the best position with the W's they could have but the losses throw a decent sized wrench into the discussion

Richmond 4-3 (2-2)
A - Nova
H - JMU
H - URI
A - W&M
Strength - UMass/Elon - which don't look as good as when they originally got the W's
Weakness - QBs MIA and non-competitive losses
To get in - must beat Nova or W&M on the road which is a TALL order THEN take care of business vs URI, improved, and JMU who they haven't beat at home since 2002? Might not be their year but the last 2 wins show they are going to continue to fight.

[JMUNJ08]

TT - Like the predictions this week. All seem legit except for WIU but not sure who's the one to step up unless its one of the CAA outsiders.

[AlphaSigMD]

While the world wouldn't come to an end if the CAA only got 3 teams (which is at least a 50/50 possibility right now) because of the teams not satisfying the 7 wins rule, I think it might just be the end of the conference as we know it.

I'm obviously not a big CAA cheerleader, but too much good football is played in the CAA to not have these teams in the mix come playoff time.

Does anybody really think that a 10-1 Jacksonville could come within 3 scores of a 6-5 New Hampshire or Richmond? Hell, I would favor a 3-8 Rhode Island heads up against a 10-1 Robert Morris.

Not that I think that 3-8 teams should get into the playoffs...but should disaster occur and only 3 CAA teams represent the conference, expect some changes.

[Cocky]

While it is good to be tested, every week will wear you out mentally.

[AxeEmJacks]

This is my new bracket prediction. This is based on how I think teams will finish looking at remaining schedules, not for where teams are right now. It was just pointed out to me too.. but I didn't mean to put A&M in there, that should be South Carolina State.


I seriously doubt that SFA will be playing UNI again.

[UNH Fanboi]

While the world wouldn't come to an end if the CAA only got 3 teams (which is at least a 50/50 possibility right now) because of the teams not satisfying the 7 wins rule, I think it might just be the end of the conference as we know it.

I'm obviously not a big CAA cheerleader, but too much good football is played in the CAA to not have these teams in the mix come playoff time.

Does anybody really think that a 10-1 Jacksonville could come within 3 scores of a 6-5 New Hampshire or Richmond? Hell, I would favor a 3-8 Rhode Island heads up against a 10-1 Robert Morris.

Not that I think that 3-8 teams should get into the playoffs...but should disaster occur and only 3 CAA teams represent the conference, expect some changes.

Don't give Maine and URI too much credit. Maine lost to Albany and URI lost to Fordham, who subsequently lost to a Div II team. We have no one to blame but ourselves for those losses. And Jacksonville isn't in the playoffs yet. There's a very good chamce that a 7-4 CAA would get in the playoffs over them at 10-1, which their fans will probably think is unfair. So the tough schedule can work in our favor too. If we played in a weak conference and lost an OOC game to URI, we'd probably be eliminated from the playoffs because we wouldn't have enough quality opponents to redeem us . In the lon rung, the exposure of the CAA and preparation for the playoffs and FBS games outweighs the "unfairness" of worse teams getting into the playoffs over good 6-5 CAA teams. I think the coaches and athletic directors realize that and will do what they can to keep the league together.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Here's the remaining schedules for the 4 on the outside for the CAA. I think one should get there but definitely not a sure thing when you look at the sched.

UNH 5-3 (3-2)
H - W&M
A - Nova
H - Towson
Strength - Lehigh/JMU/UMass/UR /CCSU - all good W's which should carry weight
Weakness - Maine/URI - may very well be the 2 worst teams in the league
To get in - Must beat W&M or Nova then take care of Towson. UNH may be in the best position with the W's they could have but the losses throw a decent sized wrench into the discussion

Richmond 4-3 (2-2)
A - Nova
H - JMU
H - URI
A - W&M
Strength - UMass/Elon - which don't look as good as when they originally got the W's
Weakness - QBs MIA and non-competitive losses
To get in - must beat Nova or W&M on the road which is a TALL order THEN take care of business vs URI, improved, and JMU who they haven't beat at home since 2002? Might not be their year but the last 2 wins show they are going to continue to fight.

I'd say that is a bit more than a stretch. Maine and URI are both better than Towson, and Towson would have a winning record if you threw them into the MEAC, SWAC, PFL, or maybe even the PL.

[Chi Panther]

I seriously doubt that SFA will be playing UNI again.

Funny thing about your and UNHWildcats comments.....I'm sure SFA and UNH want nothing to do with UNI....

[ToTheLeft]

I'd say that is a bit more than a stretch. Maine and URI are both better than Towson, and Towson would have a winning record if you threw them into the MEAC, SWAC, PFL, or maybe even the PL.

Oh hey look, you did it again. If that's how we evaluated teams, let's just not have a playoff. Let's just have the CAA play a 8 team bracket, and the winner gets to play the winner of App vs. Montana. Winner takes all.

[rcny46]

Funny thing about your and UNHWildcats comments.....I'm sure SFA and UNH want nothing to do with UNI....


I can't speak for SFA, but as far as UNH is concerned,I don't believe they would have any problem if they were matched up with UNI.

[LeadBolt]

Oh hey look, you did it again. If that's how we evaluated teams, let's just not have a playoff. Let's just have the CAA play a 8 team bracket, and the winner gets to play the winner of App vs. Montana. Winner takes all.

Why should App. State and Montana get a double bye?

[AxeEmJacks]

Funny thing about your and UNHWildcats comments.....I'm sure SFA and UNH want nothing to do with UNI....

I'd like to see a match-up of UNI and SFA again. It was a good game but I think they're less rusty now.

[Fear the Bird]

Oh hey look, you did it again. If that's how we evaluated teams, let's just not have a playoff. Let's just have the CAA play a 8 team bracket, and the winner gets to play the winner of App vs. Montana. Winner takes all.

Don't be silly bro - we have to let SIU and UNI in also, but outside of that group who else is having success in the playoffs that proves you have any ground to stand on when you get your panties in a bunch?

[crusader11]

I understand why you have Lehigh as the Patriot League representative, but at this point, I think it should go to Holy Cross. Although LU has a better overall record (5-2 vs. 4-4), they still have to play maybe the two best teams in the league in consecutive weeks. Home against Colgate, and then on the road against Holy Cross. Plus, HC has two weeks to prepare for Lehigh. Holy Cross is coming off of their biggest win of the season against Colgate, who many thought to be the best team in the PL this year. A lot of things still need to be played out, and the crazy thing is, is that a 1-6 Lafayette team is technically still in contention to win the league. A lot of things will begin to take shape after the Lehigh @ Holy Cross game.

[Chi Panther]

I'd like to see a match-up of UNI and SFA again. It was a good game but I think they're less rusty now.

SF Austin Northern Iowa
1st Downs 25 21
Total Yards 435 474
Passing 356 260
Rushing 79 214
Penalties 10-85 10-89
3rd Down Conversions 9-20 3-9
4th Down Conversions 1-1 0-1
Turnovers 0 3
Possession 33:28 26:32

[Chi Panther]

I can't speak for SFA, but as far as UNH is concerned,I don't believe they would have any problem if they were matched up with UNI.

Good point...you couldn't even beat us with Chip Kelly at the wheel....

[Gil Dobie]

WIU won't be able to run on UNI. We'll give them another L

...and that would be 4 losses on the season, tough to get a playoff nod with 4 losses, but it's possilble this year. If a MVFC team with 4 losses makes the playoffs it will be SDSU, IMO.

[Chi Panther]

Only way a 4 loss team makes the playoffs is with the auto bid....

[Gil Dobie]

Only way a 4 loss team makes the playoffs is with the auto bid....

A SDSU team that is 7-4 and 7-3 vs FCS could make the playoffs, it's not written in stone a 4 loss team is out.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Only way a 4 loss team makes the playoffs is with the auto bid....

Please explain. 4 loss teams have made the playoffs before and the field is larger this year than it has been in the past.

[ToTheLeft]

Please explain. 4 loss teams have made the playoffs before and the field is larger this year than it has been in the past.

Exactly. I think people forget the amount of parity there has been lately, and the expanded playoffs. Old "rules" like that (and since I've followed FCS, that's never been true) don't apply.

[JMUNJ08]

I'd say that is a bit more than a stretch. Maine and URI are both better than Towson, and Towson would have a winning record if you threw them into the MEAC, SWAC, PFL, or maybe even the PL.

At best they are 8th and 9th in a 10 team league. I think you forget they have not all played each other yet to make that statement...and those Ls will be looked at just as much as the Ws if UNH is on the bubble

[MacThor]

I understand your argument, and perhaps we shouldn't have allowed UNC to reschedule to play LSU in Hotlanta when we were scheduled to play them, but it really doesn't seem logical to penalize a team for losing to a BCS program in mid-season form and reward one who ducks all the way down to Div. 2, when they are capable of beating a BCS team, as UD is, but don't even try...

They don't need to.

You a) shouldn't assume you'll lose to UNC
b) need to stop with the "penalize for losing to a BCS progam" victimization -- if W&M is "penalized" it will be for having more losses. It's been this way for a long time, and it doesn't matter who you lose to.

[MacThor]

Please explain. 4 loss teams have made the playoffs before and the field is larger this year than it has been in the past.

Looking at the top 25, and how many teams still have to play each other, I think the committee will be hard pressed to find 10 playoff-worthy at-larges that don't have 4 losses. Perhaps even multiple 7-4s will make it.

[crusader11]

Looking at the top 25, and how many teams still have to play each other, I think the committee will be hard pressed to find 10 playoff-worthy at-larges that don't have 4 losses. Perhaps even multiple 7-4s will make it.

Agreed. I would be extremely shocked if there are only 3 CAA teams in the field this year (the way TT has it now). It seems as if William and Mary and Delaware are locks right now. Then, I would guess that 2, maybe even 3, of these teams get a bid: Villanova, UNH, Richmond, UMASS, and JMU. A LOT still needs to be sorted out in the coming weeks, but I see 4-5 CAA teams in the field.

[caribbeanhen]

Whether or not they are better is ireelevant, the question is whether they get to 7 wins.

and now we have identified the problem, contenders out and pretenders in

[caribbeanhen]

While the world wouldn't come to an end if the CAA only got 3 teams (which is at least a 50/50 possibility right now) because of the teams not satisfying the 7 wins rule, I think it might just be the end of the conference as we know it.

I'm obviously not a big CAA cheerleader, but too much good football is played in the CAA to not have these teams in the mix come playoff time.

Does anybody really think that a 10-1 Jacksonville could come within 3 scores of a 6-5 New Hampshire or Richmond? Hell, I would favor a 3-8 Rhode Island heads up against a 10-1 Robert Morris.

Not that I think that 3-8 teams should get into the playoffs...but should disaster occur and only 3 CAA teams represent the conference, expect some changes.

xhurrayx Who are you? Howard Cosell?

[UNH Fanboi]

Good point...you couldn't even beat us with Chip Kelly at the wheel....

Citing the same stats you just did for the SFA-UNI game...

Northern Iowa New Hampshire
1st Downs 16 30
Total Yards 351 631
Passing 185 345
Rushing 166 286
Penalties 2-10 3-25
3rd Down Conversions 6-16 9-18
4th Down Conversions 1-3 1-7
Turnovers 1 3 (all fumbles)
Possession 29:34 30:26

[ASUTodd]

They don't need to.

You a) shouldn't assume you'll lose to UNC
b) need to stop with the "penalize for losing to a BCS progam" victimization -- if W&M is "penalized" it will be for having more losses. It's been this way for a long time, and it doesn't matter who you lose to.
App State wasn't rewarded for beating Michigan... we got dropped for our losses to GSU and Wofford that year...... so I'm not buying the argument.

[MacThor]

App State wasn't rewarded for beating Michigan... we got dropped for our losses to GSU and Wofford that year...... so I'm not buying the argument.

Actually, that is my argument. App State was 9-2 that year and they didn't get a seed. So were Richmond (your semifinal opponent) and UMass, the CAA Co-champions -- they were unseeded, too. Richmond's only losses were a hail mary and a BCS program. UR wasn't "penalized" for losing to an FBS, they were dropped because they were 9-2. There were 3 11-0 seeds and a 10-1.
My point was that if W&M goes 9-2 (a VERY daunting task) and doesn't get a seed, it's probably because they're 9-2, not because they're being "penalized" for a UNC loss. They're getting penalized for 2 losses, period.

[LeadBolt]

They don't need to.

You a) shouldn't assume you'll lose to UNC
b) need to stop with the "penalize for losing to a BCS progam" victimization -- if W&M is "penalized" it will be for having more losses. It's been this way for a long time, and it doesn't matter who you lose to.

The context of my posts were in reply to the following line in the initial post by Texas Terror:

"W&M is behind Delaware in seeding because Tribe has FBS game remaining"

I am not assuming a loss or feeling like a victim. I am challenging his remark that explains his seeding. Victim mentality is the farthest thing from my mindset. I feel as if having beaten both Delaware and Villanova on the field, at this point we should be seeded ahead of them, not behind as he has done using this logic.

[MacThor]

The context of my posts were in reply to the following line in the initial post by Texas Terror:

"W&M is behind Delaware in seeding because Tribe has FBS game remaining"

I am not assuming a loss or feeling like a victim. I am challenging his remark that explains his seeding. Victim mentality is the farthest thing from my mindset. I feel as if having beaten both Delaware and Villanova on the field, at this point we should be seeded ahead of them, not behind as he has done using this logic.

Fair enough. If the season ended today, I'd give the Tribe a seed. I think this season might resemble 2007, where the CAA has a shload of teams between 7-4 and 9-2, and none of them gets a seed.

[ASUTodd]

Actually, that is my argument. App State was 9-2 that year and they didn't get a seed. So were Richmond (your semifinal opponent) and UMass, the CAA Co-champions -- they were unseeded, too. Richmond's only losses were a hail mary and a BCS program. UR wasn't "penalized" for losing to an FBS, they were dropped because they were 9-2. There were 3 11-0 seeds and a 10-1.
My point was that if W&M goes 9-2 (a VERY daunting task) and doesn't get a seed, it's probably because they're 9-2, not because they're being "penalized" for a UNC loss. They're getting penalized for 2 losses, period.

That was my point, guess I should have directed the "not buying the argument" comment at the W&M poster... Thanks for saying what I failed to! xnodx

[Professor Chaos]

...and that would be 4 losses on the season, tough to get a playoff nod with 4 losses, but it's possilble this year. If a MVFC team with 4 losses makes the playoffs it will be SDSU, IMO.
Especially with a 20 team field and what's shaping up to be a pretty weak bubble. I think both SDSU or UNI could sneak in at 7-4 as long as the CAA teams keep beating up on each other.

[Kabooom]

Total Crap (not on you) that W&M will get penalized for a loss to UNC. I know it will happen, but it just doesn't make it right. I do like the look of that bracket though...



Tribe Dude......xtwocentsx...The high cost of a play-upxeyebrowx money game......

[LeadBolt]

Fair enough. If the season ended today, I'd give the Tribe a seed. I think this season might resemble 2007, where the CAA has a shload of teams between 7-4 and 9-2, and none of them gets a seed.

I have a feeling that you may very well be right. I would be very happy to be in that logjam, if it happens. We are capable of winning or losing any and all of our remaining games. I am very proud of how the guys have responded to graduation losses and injuries this year.

I will be coming up to see the UR game, the outcome of which as others have pointed out, has had very little to do with the teams records going into the game over the years. It is my hope that W&M will come out on top for the first time in a bunch of years, but I am not all that sure of the outcome. Maybe we can have a cold drink and say hello then. My brother is a UR alum married to a W&M girl and they will be coming to the game. This game always has special meaning.

[tribefan40]

Tribe Dude......xtwocentsx...The high cost of a play-upxeyebrowx money game......

Not trying to play the victim, just responding to the original post. I understand the importance of the game to program, $$, but just disappointed that we had to reschedule this game and risk a second loss when we've been playing so well and still have so far to go. As to the seeding talk I think ASU is #1 until they lose. Looks like they have a tough road as well, but they've played their way to the top and deserve it at this point. xtwocentsx

[MacThor]

Sounds good. You know what stinks if the "2007 scenario" (5 CAA teams in but no seeds) plays out this year? -- seeds are more important in the new playoff structure. All seeds were good for in the past was home field -- you didn't automatically get a "lower tier" playoff team in the first round. Now the the NCAA has mapped out their "3 tier" FCS playoff system, a top four seed truly is getting a bye and then a home game against a tier 3 game winner.

Richmond was unseeded in '07 and '08, finally got seeded in '09 and was rewarded with Elon in the first round!

[TheTribeHasSpoken]

Oh hey look, you did it again. If that's how we evaluated teams, let's just not have a playoff. Let's just have the CAA play a 8 team bracket, and the winner gets to play the winner of App vs. Montana. Winner takes all.We should seriously consider this.

[UNHWildCats]

I seriously doubt that SFA will be playing UNI again.
that was pointed out elsewhere, and If I hadnt been putting that together late at night that game might have slammed me in the head so I wouldt have matched them up. Not only do I seriously doubt they would play, I would guarantee it. No way they meet in the first round, though

[UNHWildCats]

Funny thing about your and UNHWildcats comments.....I'm sure SFA and UNH want nothing to do with UNI....
not in the first round, but Im sure UNH would still love a shot at redemption.... No better place than the Championship game.. SO LETS ROCK THE PLAYOFFS and make it happen :)

[Skjellyfetti]

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Wofford/South Carolina State winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Liberty @ Villanova

Northern Iowa @ #5 Eastern Washington
Robert Morris/Lehigh winner @ #4 Delaware


Bethune Cookman/Georgia Southern winner @ #3 Jacksonville State
Montana State @ William & Mary

Western Illinois @Montana
Chattanooga/Southeast Missouri winner @ #2 Stephen F. Austin


Chattanooga vs. Appalachian State championship game the year after moving the game to Frisco would be poetic justice.

[UNHWildCats]

SF Austin Northern Iowa
1st Downs 25 21
Total Yards 435 474
Passing 356 260
Rushing 79 214
Penalties 10-85 10-89
3rd Down Conversions 9-20 3-9
4th Down Conversions 1-1 0-1
Turnovers 0 3
Possession 33:28 26:32

box scores are fun...



FIRST DOWNS................... 16 30
RUSHES-YARDS (NET)............ 42-166 54-286
PASSING YDS (NET)............. 185 345
Passes Att-Comp-Int........... 25-15-1 42-27-0
TOTAL OFFENSE PLAYS-YARDS..... 67-351 96-631
Fumble Returns-Yards.......... 1-1 0-0
Punt Returns-Yards............ 0-0 2-20
Kickoff Returns-Yards......... 4-41 4-107
Interception Returns-Yards.... 0-0 1-0
Punts (Number-Avg)............ 6-38.0 1-5.0
Fumbles-Lost.................. 0-0 4-3
Penalties-Yards............... 2-10 3-25
Possession Time............... 29:34 30:26
Third-Down Conversions........ 6 of 16 9 of 18
Fourth-Down Conversions....... 1 of 3 1 of 7
Red-Zone Scores-Chances....... 2-2 2-3
Sacks By: Number-Yards........ 0-0 2-12

[UNHWildCats]

Citing the same stats you just did for the SFA-UNI game...

Northern Iowa New Hampshire
1st Downs 16 30
Total Yards 351 631
Passing 185 345
Rushing 166 286
Penalties 2-10 3-25
3rd Down Conversions 6-16 9-18
4th Down Conversions 1-3 1-7
Turnovers 1 3 (all fumbles)
Possession 29:34 30:26
LOL aww damn u beat me to it :P

[TexasTerror]

Chattanooga vs. Appalachian State championship game the year after moving the game to Frisco would be poetic justice.

Even better would be the FCS team closest to Frisco -SFA - defeating Chattanooga! :)

Two SLC wins over Chatty in the last 12 months!

[MacThor]

Here's my stab at it - my second round was a geographic nightmare because I projected 4 Big Sky teams at 8-3 or better and they all got byes (but not seeds). Yes, I threw up a little in my mouth when this happened. :)

I also assume Richmond doesn't play spoiler down the stretch, JMU's defense goes on a tear, and SEMO gets Woofed (Last team out, but the OVC is in "what have you done for me lately" status, and if they lose their last game, well...

AQ: EWU, Liberty, UD, B-C, WIU, RM, JSU, Lehigh, App St., SFA
AL: Mont, Woff, NAU, Mont St, Nova, JMU, W&M, UNH, UNI, Chatt

I had a mess of 7-4 teams: W&M, UNH, UNI, Chatt, Ga South, NDSU, Cal Poly. Also in the mix 9-2 SEMO, 10-1 Jax, 9-2 SC St. UNI's win over NDSU and Chatt over GSU kicked them, and the rest lose out on SOS.

First Round: W&M @ Liberty, UNH @ UNI (here we go), B-C @ Chatt, RM @ Lehigh.
Second Round WM/Liberty winner at #1 App St.
Lehigh/RM winner at #2 Delaware
B-C/Chatt winner at #3 Jax St
UNH/UNI winner at #4 SFA
#5 EWU vs JMU
Montana vs Nova
WIU vs Montana St
NAU vs. Wofford

There's no way to make that second round work geographically, so JMU/Nova/WIU/Wofford could all be shuffled. I could also see the committee giving an 11-0 B-C a bye, or even a 5 seed (there's precedent). That might actually make the geographic pairings easier.

[tribefan40]

Here's my stab at it - my second round was a geographic nightmare because I projected 4 Big Sky teams at 8-3 or better and they all got byes (but not seeds). Yes, I threw up a little in my mouth when this happened. :)

I also assume Richmond doesn't play spoiler down the stretch, JMU's defense goes on a tear, and SEMO gets Woofed (Last team out, but the OVC is in "what have you done for me lately" status, and if they lose their last game, well...

AQ: EWU, Liberty, UD, B-C, WIU, RM, JSU, Lehigh, App St., SFA
AL: Mont, Woff, NAU, Mont St, Nova, JMU, W&M, UNH, UNI, Chatt

I had a mess of 7-4 teams: W&M, UNH, UNI, Chatt, Ga South, NDSU, Cal Poly. Also in the mix 9-2 SEMO, 10-1 Jax, 9-2 SC St. UNI's win over NDSU and Chatt over GSU kicked them, and the rest lose out on SOS.

First Round: W&M @ Liberty, UNH @ UNI (here we go), B-C @ Chatt, RM @ Lehigh.
Second Round WM/Liberty winner at #1 App St.
Lehigh/RM winner at #2 Delaware
B-C/Chatt winner at #3 Jax St
UNH/UNI winner at #4 SFA
#5 EWU vs JMU
Montana vs Nova
WIU vs Montana St
NAU vs. Wofford

There's no way to make that second round work geographically, so JMU/Nova/WIU/Wofford could all be shuffled. I could also see the committee giving an 11-0 B-C a bye, or even a 5 seed (there's precedent). That might actually make the geographic pairings easier.

So we're going 1-3 down the stretch? If Richmond doesn't play the spoiler then we lose to JMU and UNH. While this is possible (as all things are) it doesn't seem likely at this point. Where's the letdown?

[MacThor]

So we're going 1-3 down the stretch? If Richmond doesn't play the spoiler then we lose to JMU and UNH. While this is possible (as all things are) it doesn't seem likely at this point. Where's the letdown?

That's exactly what I'm projecting. You have to admit the Tribe hasn't looked sharp on the road. Here comes a three-game road trip against teams all better than UMass. UNH is 3-0 at home. If JMU can get to 6-3 Bridgeforth will be rocking.

[WrenFGun]

I think W&M is going to go at least 1-2 in that stretch. They're a good team, but that's a brutal stretch. Cowell is going to be packed and as rocking as possible for that game in two weeks, and UNH is playing as well as anyone in the CAA over the last three weeks.

[emilimo701]

Only way a 4 loss team makes the playoffs is with the auto bid....

man you should know better. it has happened at least twice in the past four years. and with 2 extra at-larges this year, i'd be willing to bet AT LEAST one at-large this season has 4 losses

[emilimo701]

soothsaying aside, this is how i'd field the playoffs if the season had just ended...
Liberty @ James Madison --|
at |---|
Appalachian State (1) --| |
|---|
Wofford --| | |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Robert Morris @ Lehigh --| | |
at |---| |
Delaware (4) --| |
|
SE Missouri St @ Chattanooga --| |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin (3) --| | |
|---| |
Eastern Washignton --| | | |
at |---| | |
Villanova --| | |
|---|
New Hampshire --| |
at |---| |
Montana --| | |
|---|
Bethune-Cookman @ N Arizona --| |
at |---|
Jacksonville State (2) --|

First four out:
Western Illinois
UMass
North Dakota State
Richmond

Next four out:
Georgia Southern
South Carolina State
Cal Poly
Jacksonville

[chattanoogamocs]

Chattanooga vs. Appalachian State championship game the year after moving the game to Frisco would be poetic justice.

Not to mention that the match-up that started the season at the old home of the championship would be the same match-up to end the season at the new home of the championship.

Of course if that all happened...the Mocs would make the 2-pt conversion.

(all the hair just stood up on my arms) :)

[TexasTerror]

soothsaying aside, this is how i'd field the playoffs if the season had just ended...

Cal Poly in the next four out? Have a hard time believing they are deserving of being in any four! ;)

[emilimo701]

Cal Poly in the next four out? Have a hard time believing they are deserving of being in any four! ;)

The only other contenders I see at this point, WITHOUT having to run the table (while also maybe hoping for some upsets), are:

Furman
Sam Houston State
Dayton
Hampton
....

Cal Poly is one of those teams that needs to run the table. But not only do they have the easiest path to doing so IMO, but they'd be at the front of the line over any other team not listed that also were to win the rest of remaining games

[emilimo701]

and in doing this, you also have to keep in mind that the "best" teams aren't always invited, so you have to predict accordingly

[IaaScribe]

Emilio -- I doubt they'd pair Liberty and JMU up a second time since they played in the regular season. Also, if it did happen, the game would certainly be in Lynchburg. JMU isn't hosting playoff games at Bridgeforth, and I doubt they'd put in a bid to host a playoff game at a neutral site in Richmond.

[jstclmet]

Here's my stab at the playoff projections if the season ended last Saturday;

1st round games
UR vs SC St.
UNI vs. RMU
Lehigh vs. Liberty
UMass vs. MT State - Note, I think MT St will win the AB by season's end, but for now, I have to give them the AL.

2nd round games
UR/SC State winner @ #1 seed ASU.
EWU vs Wofford
BC @ #5 Seed Nova
UNI/RMU winnner @ #4 seed SFA.
Lehigh/Liberty winner @ #3 seed W&M
SEMO vs UD
MT vs UNH
UMass/MT St winner @ #2 seed J'ville St.

[chattownmocs]

I dont know. There isnt a whole lot of respect for Chattanooga in any other poll besides ags. 20th is the highest ive seen for them in any other poll. I have a feeling that losses to Auburn and Wofford and they would be left out.

[SpeedkingATL]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 7 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76683-Week-7-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: William & Mary
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
Colonial: Delaware, Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford, Chattanooga, Georgia Southern

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Lehigh
Wofford @ South Carolina State
Chattanooga @ Southeast Missouri
Bethune Cookman @ Georgia Southern


SECOND ROUND GAMES

Wofford/South Carolina State winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Liberty @ Villanova

Northern Iowa @ #5 Eastern Washington
Robert Morris/Lehigh winner @ #4 Delaware


Bethune Cookman/Georgia Southern winner @ #3 Jacksonville State
Montana State @ William & Mary

Western Illinois @Montana
Chattanooga/Southeast Missouri winner @ #2 Stephen F. Austin

NOTES
Lots of games not going the way I suspected and really putting MANY teams on the brink with so many possible setbacks still on tap.

Going with SoCon to get another team in over a Pioneer #1, NEC #2 or some of the other possibilities...

New Hampshire is the favorite for the last CAA spot. With UMass having games at JMU and home vs UD after their loss to UNH, they are behind the eight ball. Richmond still has at Villanova and at William & Mary, so keeping them grounded. JMU's 1-3 start in league play hurts TREMENDOUSLY. W&M is behind Delaware in seeding because Tribe has FBS game remaining

As far as SoCon, Chattanooga has to win 3 of final 4. If they hold homefield, the Nov. 20 game could be a play-in for them and potentially Wofford, pending how things shape up.

No second bid for SLC unless SHSU wins out.

I like what you have but I would expect to see 4 CAA and 3 SoCon as UTC and GSU have difficult games remaining that will likely drop one or the other.

[Cincy App]

Emilio -- I doubt they'd pair Liberty and JMU up a second time since they played in the regular season. Also, if it did happen, the game would certainly be in Lynchburg. JMU isn't hosting playoff games at Bridgeforth, and I doubt they'd put in a bid to host a playoff game at a neutral site in Richmond.

The playoff selection committee generally matches teams up based on proximity - even if the teams met in the regular season. S. Illinois and E. Illinois have met a couple times in the first round even after playing each other in the regular season. Also, Montana and Cal Poly have played each other in the first round after meeting in the regular season. Don't rule it out.

Regarding home field, I agree that Liberty would be likely to host the potential game due to JMU's renovations.

[jmufan999]

I feel as if having beaten both Delaware and Villanova on the field, at this point we should be seeded ahead of them, not behind as he has done using this logic.

without question, i agree with you. win out the rest of your CAA games and you're no worse than the #3 seed, possibly #2. i don't see app state losing this year, at least in the regular season.

[jmufan999]

Regarding home field, I agree that Liberty would be likely to host the potential game due to JMU's renovations.

i wouldn't plan on JMU making the playoffs unless they beat UMass, which i'm not expecting. if we beat UMass, then i'll believe we could possibly beat Richmond and Maine... but i could also see us losing the rest of our games. sometimes, it's just not your year. too many starters missing way too much time.

[IaaScribe]

Cincy: I think I got the idea of staying away from conference rematches in the first round in my head. You're right. 2006, Eastern Illinois and Illinois State had a rematch in the first round, and in 2005, Montana and Cal Poly also had a first-round rematch.

Even if JMU wasn't renovating, I think Liberty would still host the rematch. They're going to put in a monster bid to host a first-round game, one that I don't think anyone will match.