Week 7: Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Delaware
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
Colonial: UMass, William & Mary, Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Sam Houston State @ Montana State
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Colgate @ Liberty
Southeast Missouri @ Western Illinois

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/South Carolina State winner @ #1 Appalachian State
William & Mary @ Northern Iowa

Sam Houston State/Montana State winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Villanova @ Eastern Washington

Southeast Missouri/Western Illinois winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Bethune Cookman @ Wofford

Colgate/Liberty winner @ #2 Delaware
Montana @ UMass

Notes:
Sam Houston State could very well go 8-3 (all against Div I) with wins in 8 of final 9 with lone loss to SFA. Though this may sound like a 'homer' pick, I am still confident the SLC can get two teams in and TXST is not doing themselves favorites, so this is where we are for now.
Montana is IN for now because they have NAU and Montana State at home. If they did not, they'd be OUT.
CAA is rough because William & Mary plays three straight on road after hosting Delaware. Those three are No Carolina, UNH and James Madison. A split gets them in, anything worse could put them on the sidelines.
Great West is OUT now in my opinion

[Ud1Hens]

Always a fun topic and subject, thanks for putting this together every week. Now for comments, if it ends up being Umass/Montana, Umass is getting sent to Montana because of the attendance/money. And as always the CAA will be interesting with the top 6 still playing each other:

UD: @ William and Mary, @ Umass, Villanova
New Hampshire: Umass, William and Mary, @ Villanova
Villanova: JMU, New Hampshire, @ Delaware
JMU: @ Villanova, Umass, @ William and Mary
William and Mary: Delaware, @ North Carolina, @ New Hampshire, @ James Madison
Umass: New Hampshire, @ JMU, Delaware

Things should work itself out but there are a few teams playing for their playoff lives. Any one of these teams could win the conference or fall straight out of the hunt with a couple losses.

[TexasTerror]

That's the issue - the CAA will play itself out. They could easily get five teams in, but with so many great games left on tap - you could see a team lose all two or three of its critical games to fall right out of the playoff hunt...

Wish the CAA games were earlier for a prognostication standpoint - but from a pure fan standpoint, these are like EARLY playoff games! Just like Montana-Montana State could be in the Big Sky and a few other games around the country...

[SpiderSafety75]

Based on yesterday, might be a bit early to leave Richmond's games with Nova, JMU, and W&M out of the 'key CAA games.'

[WrenFGun]

I don't see SC. State a playoff team with this loss..9-2 at best with zero quality wins? I guess they might make it in a 20 team field but that's pretty unimpressive stuff.

SEMO looks a bit better, IMO, in their case for an at-large. I think if SHS wins out besides SFA, they could get in, but 8-3 with wins over no one? Meh.

I'd have Furman in right now ... brutal schedule left, but at least they have the win over Colgate..The Chatanooga/Furman winner next week would be in my bracket.

The CAA is crazy ... William & Mary is 5-1, and yet have to play at UNC, UNH and JMU the next three weeks after a home game against UD and they close with a home game against Richmond, who just beat UMass. They need to win at least two of those games, but there really is no gimme there. Nova has a lot of their tough games at home, but it's really the same boat there (UD, UNH, JMU, Richmond). UMass seems to be in pretty good shape to me, as they may be in as long as they win one against UNH, JMU and Delaware.

Delaware is really only the safe team, and I think UNH, JMU and Richmond are all still there, too. I think if you somehow get to 7-4 in the CAA you're probably safe.

[Nebuta]

I think if you somehow get to 7-4 in the CAA you're probably safe.
Totally agree. With a 20 man field. I dont see how a 7-4 CAA team is left out the field.

[WileECoyote06]

I would switch some of the pods; but your picks are solid.

[EdubAlum]

Are you saying you expect Montana to win out? Just curious why you had EWU as the big sky automatic bid, when technically it can still be montana state if we both win out (because they have the tie breaker over us)

[appfan2008]

looks like probably 3 straight years with scst! but i am not convinced they make it in

[ToTheLeft]

AQ's:

EWU (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)
Delaware (CAA)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
W. Illinois (MVFC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Jacksonville St. (OVC)
Colgate (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At Larges:

-Griz, NAU (Big Sky)
(Griz win Cat/Griz play-in game, NAU loses to Griz but wins other games, only road game other than Griz is @NoCo)

-Mass, Nova, William and Mary (CAA)
(JMU only gets to 6 wins, UR/UNH don't get to 7 either)

-SC State (MEAC)
(I don't think they have a resume to deserve it, but they'll have wins, and be second in their conference, and since there's just not enough candidates...)

-None (MVFC)
(I'm sure I'll catch flack for this, but I just don't see it at this point. ISUblue, UNI, and NDSU can only lose once, and ISUblue has to play both teams. Plus NDSU has SDSU remaining on their schedule. UNI and SDSU are the most likely candidates in my opinion, but SDSU has to win out, and UNI has to play @WIU, @YSU, and @ISUblue, and can only lose once)

-SEMO St. (OVC)
(Run the table except for Jax State)

-Appalachian St., Chatty, Furman (SoCon)
(Wofford beats App, but App still makes it, Chatty keeps winning, and Furman beats GSU the last week and gets in)

Seeds:
1. Delaware
2. SFA
3. Jax St.
4. WIU
5. Wofford

Round one games:

NAU @ SC State (@ #1 UD Rd. 2)
Chatty @ B-CU (@ #2 SFA Rd. 2)
RMU @ Nova (@ #3 Jax St Rd. 2)
SEMO St. @ Montana (@ #4 WIU Rd. 2)

Round 2 games:

Colgate @ UMass
Furman @ Liberty
EWU @ App St.
William and Mary @ #5 WoCo

Last four out: Lehigh, Dayton, Sam Houston St., Hampton

Those with 6 wins that likely could have made it with 7 wins: JMU, UNI, NDSU, Richmond

[aceinthehole]

IF, CCSU beats RMU for the NEC AQ, how does RMU's resume look compared to SCSU for an at-large bid?

RMU (8-2, 7-1 NEC)
Sep 4 - L at Dayton, 14-28
Sep 11 - W at Sacred Heart, 35-31
Sep 18 - W vs. #15 Liberty, 30-23
Sep 25 - W at Wagner, 30-9
Oct 2 - W at St Francis-PA, 35-14
Oct 9 - W vs. Monmouth, 17-16
Oct 16 - W vs. Albany, 38-0
Oct 30 - vs. Duquesne, 12:00 PM
Nov 6 - vs. Cent Conn St, 12:00 PM
Nov 13 - at Bryant, 12:00 PM

SCSU (8-2, 7-1 MEAC)
Sep 4 - L at Georgia Tech, 10-41
Sep 11 - W vs. Miss Valley St, 44-0
Sep 18 - W at Benedict, 61-20 (*non D-I win)
Oct 2 - W at Florida A&M, 19-0
Oct 9 - W vs. Norfolk State, 34-13
Oct 16 - L vs. Bethune-Cookman, 0-14
Oct 23 - vs. Hampton, 1:30 PM
Oct 30 - at Delaware State, 1:00 PM
Nov 6 - vs. Howard, 1:30 PM
Nov 11 - at Morgan State, 7:30 PM
Nov 20 - at NC A&T, 1:30 PM

What quality win does SCSU have?

[UNH Fanboi]

-None (MVFC)
(I'm sure I'll catch flack for this, but I just don't see it at this point. ISUblue, UNI, and NDSU can only lose once, and ISUblue has to play both teams. Plus NDSU has SDSU remaining on their schedule. UNI and SDSU are the most likely candidates in my opinion, but SDSU has to win out, and UNI has to play @WIU, @YSU, and @ISUblue, and can only lose once)


I agree, things are looking very grim for the MVFC getting an at-large.

[Edge316007]

AQ's:

EWU (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)
Delaware (CAA)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
W. Illinois (MVFC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Jacksonville St. (OVC)
Colgate (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At Larges:

-Griz, NAU (Big Sky)
(Griz win Cat/Griz play-in game, NAU loses to Griz but wins other games, only road game other than Griz is @NoCo)

-Mass, Nova, William and Mary (CAA)
(JMU only gets to 6 wins, UR/UNH don't get to 7 either)

-SC State (MEAC)
(I don't think they have a resume to deserve it, but they'll have wins, and be second in their conference, and since there's just not enough candidates...)

-None (MVFC)
(I'm sure I'll catch flack for this, but I just don't see it at this point. ISUblue, UNI, and NDSU can only lose once, and ISUblue has to play both teams. Plus NDSU has SDSU remaining on their schedule. UNI and SDSU are the most likely candidates in my opinion, but SDSU has to win out, and UNI has to play @WIU, @YSU, and @ISUblue, and can only lose once)

-SEMO St. (OVC)
(Run the table except for Jax State)

-Appalachian St., Chatty, Furman (SoCon)
(Wofford beats App, but App still makes it, Chatty keeps winning, and Furman beats GSU the last week and gets in)

Seeds:
1. Delaware
2. SFA
3. Jax St.
4. WIU
5. Wofford

Round one games:

NAU @ SC State (@ #1 UD Rd. 2)
Chatty @ B-CU (@ #2 SFA Rd. 2)
RMU @ Nova (@ #3 Jax St Rd. 2)
SEMO St. @ Montana (@ #4 WIU Rd. 2)

Round 2 games:

Colgate @ UMass
Furman @ Liberty
EWU @ App St.
William and Mary @ #5 WoCo

Last four out: Lehigh, Dayton, Sam Houston St., Hampton

Those with 6 wins that likely could have made it with 7 wins: JMU, UNI, NDSU, Richmond

Wofford fan? Only real explanation.

I'd love the brackets that TT posted, but I'd love them even more if you flipped William & Mary and Montana. It might not make sense, and it'd feature a scheduled conference matchup (though be better on travel) but I'd love to get another crack at Montana, especially in Boone and especially this year.

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty fan, and it's not that absurd to think Wofford could control the ball and run all over an ASU defense that's been less than incredible.

[WestCoastAggie]

IF, CCSU beats RMU for the NEC AQ, how does RMU's resume look compared to SCSU for an at-large bid?

RMU (8-2, 7-1 NEC)
Sep 4 - L at Dayton, 14-28
Sep 11 - W at Sacred Heart, 35-31
Sep 18 - W vs. #15 Liberty, 30-23
Sep 25 - W at Wagner, 30-9
Oct 2 - W at St Francis-PA, 35-14
Oct 9 - W vs. Monmouth, 17-16
Oct 16 - W vs. Albany, 38-0
Oct 30 - vs. Duquesne, 12:00 PM
Nov 6 - vs. Cent Conn St, 12:00 PM
Nov 13 - at Bryant, 12:00 PM

SCSU (8-2, 7-1 MEAC)
Sep 4 - L at Georgia Tech, 10-41
Sep 11 - W vs. Miss Valley St, 44-0
Sep 18 - W at Benedict, 61-20 (*non D-I win)
Oct 2 - W at Florida A&M, 19-0
Oct 9 - W vs. Norfolk State, 34-13
Oct 16 - L vs. Bethune-Cookman, 0-14
Oct 23 - vs. Hampton, 1:30 PM
Oct 30 - at Delaware State, 1:00 PM
Nov 6 - vs. Howard, 1:30 PM
Nov 11 - at Morgan State, 7:30 PM
Nov 20 - at NC A&T, 1:30 PM

What quality win does SCSU have?

If SCSU beats Hampton, whom should be ranked next week, the schedules will look pretty much even. SCSU played a FBS and & D-2 School and RMU lost to a PFL team but beat a then #15 Liberty.

[aceinthehole]

If SCSU beats Hampton, whom should be ranked next week, the schedules will look pretty much even. SCSU played a FBS and & D-2 School and RMU lost to a PFL team but beat a then #15 Liberty.

What? Are you really suggesting 3 MEAC teams (BCU, SCU, and HU) should be ranked?

SCSU has been top-10 without a quality win this season. Then they get shoutout by a conference team.

RMU has run the table in the NEC so farand has a win vs a ranked team, yet they haven't sniffed the top-25.

I think we need more evidence that the MEAC is deserving of these rankings, whereas NEC are not.

[UNH Fanboi]

What? Are you really suggesting 3 MEAC teams (BCU, SCU, and HU) should be ranked?

SCSU has been top-10 without a quality win this season. Then they get shoutout by a conference team.

RMU has run the table in the NEC so farand has a win vs a ranked team, yet they haven't sniffed the top-25.

I think we need more evidence that the MEAC is deserving of these rankings, whereas NEC are not.

FWIW, Sagarin has the MEAC rated as the worst confernce in FCS, and it's behind the NEC by a large margin:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc10.htm

And I would bet that RMU will be ranked this week.

[TexasTerror]

This is the first time I've gotten plenty more positive reviews than negative - thanks guys! Guess it's my extra Big Sky teams in there! ;)

[El Gato]

This is the first time I've gotten plenty more positive reviews than negative - thanks guys! Guess it's my extra Big Sky teams in there! ;)

Well we are little further into the season and the picture is starting to get somewhat clearer.

[El Gato]

I do agree that SHSU at this point should be considered for the at-large bid. However, if the Cats do manage to bounce back and hands the Bearkats a loss, and McNeese who has shown a little bit of life as of late also hands you another loss, then the Bearkats won't have the necessary 7 D1 wins. The SLC could very well be a auto bid conference only this season.

On that note, you mentioned that Texas State isn't helping their case anymore. I honestly believe that our at-large bid chances are now gone. Even if we do win out the season and get the 7 D1 wins, do you think the committee will look favorably upon us when they look at that Nicholls loss? Especially if Nicholls goes on to lose every game from here on out. I mean if we get 7 D1 wins then that means victories over SFA and McNeese (whom I think may still finish strong) Cal Poly and Southern Utah. But, with Cal Poly losing to un unranked SUU team, that win doesn't hold as much weight anymore?

I don't know, losing to Nicholls in baseball in the spring is what caused the Cats to lose at large consideration for the playoffs their as well. They were a shoe in for an at large bid until dropping a series to the Colonels. I feel that the same thing will occur here (of course assuming we win the next 5, which I don't think is likely).

[WestCoastAggie]

What? Are you really suggesting 3 MEAC teams (BCU, SCU, and HU) should be ranked?

SCSU has been top-10 without a quality win this season. Then they get shoutout by a conference team.

RMU has run the table in the NEC so farand has a win vs a ranked team, yet they haven't sniffed the top-25.

I think we need more evidence that the MEAC is deserving of these rankings, whereas NEC are not.

Don't think for one second that I am slighting the Northeast Conference or Robert Morris at all. I definitely agree that RMU should be ranked in the top 20.

SCSU was overrated this year, holding on to the top 10 due to their accomplishments last season. Most teams in the poll have that respect going for them and it's why it's so hard for a team like RMU to break in.

But even with this loss, SCSU should still be ranked even though they played a laughable OOC, which wasn't their fault. Benedict wouldn't keep taking a buyout and from my understanding, a team from one of the stronger FCS conferences backed out of their game at the last minute and had to scramble to find a home game and Wofford, Elon, Liberty & Coastal Carolina couldn't agree to terms with them for this game because they wanted SCSU to come to them. So all that was left for them to schedule was Miss. Valley State.

The reason why the MEAC is at the bottom of the FCS this year is because teams like my Undergrad Alma Mater (A&T), Howard, DSU, Morgan St, NSU are seriously weighing down the conference's strength of schedule. We just suck and it's hurting teams like Hampton, SCSU and BCU. It's really sad really but these problems go way beyond the gridiron.

So I am not slighting the NEC in any way at all. I am just more familiar with the MEAC and know our struggles in scheduling OOC games especially at home.

BTW: the U of Jacksonville SHOULD be ranked as well and they are getting serious love from the computer rankings.

[Edge316007]

Liberty fan, and it's not that absurd to think Wofford could control the ball and run all over an ASU defense that's been less than incredible.

Against the pass, not the run.

Not that the Wofford game doesn't scare me a little, but I just don't see us losing this at home.

[aceinthehole]

...

SCSU was overrated this year, holding on to the top 10 due to their accomplishments last season. Most teams in the poll have that respect going for them and it's why it's so hard for a team like RMU to break in.

... SCSU should still be ranked even though they played a laughable OOC ...

... the MEAC is at the bottom of the FCS this year is because teams like my Undergrad Alma Mater (A&T), Howard, DSU, Morgan St, NSU are seriously weighing down the conference's strength of schedule. We just suck ...

OK, I agree with you

[appfan2008]

I like the playoff prediction with one exception I think either UTC or Furman will sneak in as a 3rd socon team... just my guess...

[Reign of Terrier]

Against the pass, not the run.

Not that the Wofford game doesn't scare me a little, but I just don't see us losing this at home.

Georgia Southern was first in the conference in run defense (after playing Navy no less), and Wofford still found a way to rush for 300 yards. Not to mention this year we may have a defense but I'm not holding my breath just yet.

[millwoga1]

Wofford fan? Only real explanation.

I'd love the brackets that TT posted, but I'd love them even more if you flipped William & Mary and Montana. It might not make sense, and it'd feature a scheduled conference matchup (though be better on travel) but I'd love to get another crack at Montana, especially in Boone and especially this year.

Heaven forbid someone other than a Wofford fan has an opinion that ASU might just lose to Wofford. Holy cow- what an absurd comment

[Edge316007]

Heaven forbid someone other than a Wofford fan has an opinion that ASU might just lose to Wofford. Holy cow- what an absurd comment

Or, App hasn't shown pretty much any weakness against the run. The only teams that have really challenged them have been the best passing teams in the league. Everyone else has lost in a blowout. Forgive me if predicting Wofford as the SoCon champs at this point is a little absurd itself.

[CharlestonAppFan]

Against the pass, not the run.

Not that the Wofford game doesn't scare me a little, but I just don't see us losing this at home.

Edge,

TTL is a Liberty and CAA homer, so it's really no use in talking to him, he doesn't speak "sense". Go on the other site and look at his posts....

[emilimo701]

trying to be as objective as possible, this is how i'd see it if the season ended today... still plenty of football left obviously. It's nice to see my team still getting respect from some of you after a heartbreaking loss.


Robert Morris @ Colgate --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
Western Illinois --| | |
at |---| |
Montana --| |
|---|
Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| | |
Jacksonville State (5) --| | | |
|---| |
SE Missouri St @ Chattanooga --| | |
at |---| |
Villanova (4) --| |
|
Liberty @ South Carolina St --| |
at |---| |
Appalachian State (3) --| | |
|---| |
Wofford --| | | |
at |---| | |
James Madison --| | |
|---|
Eastern Washington --| |
at |---| |
William & Mary --| | |
|---|
New Hampshire @ N Arizona --| |
at |---|
Stephen F. Austin (2) --|

First four out:
Northern Iowa
Montana State
Massachusetts
North Dakota State

Next four out:
Furman
Richmond
Sam Houston State
Jacksonville

I didn't want to give James Madison a bye, but I couldn't justify another team more worthy at this point.

Northern Arizona was among my first four out, until I noticed their Sagarin numbers. So I swapped the teams for now.

A win over New Hampshire this week (at Gillette stadium!) and the Minutemen replace them in my bracket.

[Squealofthepig]

trying to be as objective as possible, this is how i'd see it if the season ended today... still plenty of football left obviously. It's nice to see my team still getting respect from some of you after a heartbreaking loss.


Robert Morris @ Colgate --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
Western Illinois --| | |
at |---| |
Montana --| |
|---|
Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| | |
Jacksonville State (5) --| | | |
|---| |
SE Missouri St @ Chattanooga --| | |
at |---| |
Villanova (4) --| |
|
Liberty @ South Carolina St --| |
at |---| |
Appalachian State (3) --| | |
|---| |
Wofford --| | | |
at |---| | |
James Madison --| | |
|---|
Eastern Washington --| |
at |---| |
William & Mary --| | |
|---|
New Hampshire @ N Arizona --| |
at |---|
Stephen F. Austin (2) --|

First four out:
Northern Iowa
Montana State
Massachusetts
North Dakota State

Next four out:
Furman
Richmond
Sam Houston State
Jacksonville

I didn't want to give James Madison a bye, but I couldn't justify another team more worthy at this point.

Northern Arizona was among my first four out, until I noticed their Sagarin numbers. So I swapped the teams for now.

A win over New Hampshire this week (at Gillette stadium!) and the Minutemen replace them in my bracket.

Nothing in here I could critique too much; think these are fair assessments. The Blue Hens would have a lot of "prove it" teams in their bracket, but think this is fair. Montana is a shadow of previous teams; BC is good, but no telling hwo good; and JSU may be either the real deal or a fluke. It really will be up to the playoffs to decide.

Given these 16 teams, I imagine the committee would shift teams around based on geography more (e.g., no UNH at NAU), but so much football to be played, I can't overly critique - a good guess at what this all may look like!

[Edge316007]

I'd love to hear an argument for SFA over App at #2. I called out someone in the poll thread but they didn't respond. I don't see it, but I'd like to hear the argument.

[danefan]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Delaware
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
Colonial: UMass, William & Mary, Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Sam Houston State @ Montana State
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Colgate @ Liberty
Southeast Missouri @ Western Illinois

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/South Carolina State winner @ #1 Appalachian State
William & Mary @ Northern Iowa

Sam Houston State/Montana State winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Villanova @ Eastern Washington

Southeast Missouri/Western Illinois winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Bethune Cookman @ Wofford

Colgate/Liberty winner @ #2 Delaware
Montana @ UMass

Notes:
Sam Houston State could very well go 8-3 (all against Div I) with wins in 8 of final 9 with lone loss to SFA. Though this may sound like a 'homer' pick, I am still confident the SLC can get two teams in and TXST is not doing themselves favorites, so this is where we are for now.
Montana is IN for now because they have NAU and Montana State at home. If they did not, they'd be OUT.
CAA is rough because William & Mary plays three straight on road after hosting Delaware. Those three are No Carolina, UNH and James Madison. A split gets them in, anything worse could put them on the sidelines.
Great West is OUT now in my opinion

Don't have much to gripe about the teams, but the opening round matchups will likely be slightly different, IMO.

400 miles is the bus trip limit and anything that falls within that will be a bus trip, regardless of matchup.

So if you're first round teams are correct, Liberty and SCSU will be playing with the winning bidder hosting. Its only 338 miles per the NCAA trip calculator.

https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

The SEMO vs. WIU game would stay (also a bus trip).

That leaves 4 teams not within driving distance (SHSU, MSU, RMU and Colgate).

RMU @ Colgate & SHSU @ MSU makes the most sense.


And BTW, I'd love to see that matchup. Works out perfectly for the NEC's first playoff win.

[OL FU]

This is the first time I've gotten plenty more positive reviews than negative - thanks guys! Guess it's my extra Big Sky teams in there! ;)

I have been meaning to mention how dumb that isxnodxxlolx

you know I am joshing youxsmiley_wix

[emilimo701]

I'd love to hear an argument for SFA over App at #2. I called out someone in the poll thread but they didn't respond. I don't see it, but I'd like to hear the argument.

Strength of schedule to date. It could be argued either way. Why didn't I just go with the team getting the most first-place poll votes? I guess just trying to make a point? Maybe App is oodles better, but I haven't seen any games/clips of SFA play yet.

[emilimo701]

Don't have much to gripe about the teams, but the opening round matchups will likely be slightly different, IMO.

400 miles is the bus trip limit and anything that falls within that will be a bus trip, regardless of matchup.

So if you're first round teams are correct, Liberty and SCSU will be playing with the winning bidder hosting. Its only 338 miles per the NCAA trip calculator.

https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

The SEMO vs. WIU game would stay (also a bus trip).

That leaves 4 teams not within driving distance (SHSU, MSU, RMU and Colgate).

RMU @ Colgate & SHSU @ MSU makes the most sense.


And BTW, I'd love to see that matchup. Works out perfectly for the NEC's first playoff win.

yup I'd switch Robert Morris with Liberty there man.

and I duno about UMass hosting Montana. I'd love to see that happen, but wouldn't you think Montana, based on history and revenue, would outbid all but about 3 FCS teams for a home game?

[Edge316007]

Strength of schedule to date. It could be argued either way. Why didn't I just go with the team getting the most first-place poll votes? I guess just trying to make a point? Maybe App is oodles better, but I haven't seen any games/clips of SFA play yet.

An SOS that's perhaps slightly better (if at all)? Ignoring everything else, and you haven't even seen SFA play? And you're basically just going against the system (I see you're a CAA fan)? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I thought this was supposed to be the best poll around. So far I've seen a lot of fans voting against teams they dislike or voting for their conference.

[emilimo701]

An SOS that's perhaps slightly better (if at all)? Ignoring everything else, and you haven't even seen SFA play? And you're basically just going against the system (I see you're a CAA fan)? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I thought this was supposed to be the best poll around. So far I've seen a lot of fans voting against teams they dislike or voting for their conference.

Yeah, I just think UNI is a sexier win up to this point. ASU has a nice gritty win at Chattanooga, but so does SFA at McNeese State.

I am a CAA fan indeed. I put UNH in over Montana State.... with teams like NDSU and Cal Poly losing. That may have been a homer decision (was it?) but notice I wouldn't put my Minutemen in right now based on their downward slide. Sometimes it's all about momentum.

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty would likely bid as much as they could to host a playoff game in our new stadium.

Just saying, if we make it in, it's likely we'll host. And we're a bus trip from SCST, WoCo, William and Mary, Hampton, Nova, UD, and App (but I know we wouldn't host App), and we're on the verge of being a bus trip from Chatty, I haven't checked the official source.

[Edge316007]

Yeah, I just think UNI is a sexier win up to this point. ASU has a nice gritty win at Chattanooga, but so does SFA at McNeese State.

I am a CAA fan indeed. I put UNH in over Montana State.... with teams like NDSU and Cal Poly losing. That may have been a homer decision (was it?) but notice I wouldn't put my Minutemen in right now based on their downward slide. Sometimes it's all about momentum.

Well, good thing this isn't a Boise State situation where everything will be decided on the field. I don't disagree with most of the rest of it (and neither does the TSN poll apparently) but I do disagree with SFA over App for a top 2 seed. I think that's a bit ridiculous at this point. Thankfully, if App runs the table it will be moot because they'll pick up a least 1 quality win in Wofford.

[emilimo701]

Well, good thing this isn't a Boise State situation where everything will be decided on the field. I don't disagree with most of the rest of it (and neither does the TSN poll apparently) but I do disagree with SFA over App for a top 2 seed. I think that's a bit ridiculous at this point. Thankfully, if App runs the table it will be moot because they'll pick up a least 1 quality win in Wofford.

If ASU runs the table, they get the #1 seed hands down. One loss and it would take an undefeated team to get it over them. There possibly might not even be one.

[Fear the Bird]

If ASU runs the table, they get the #1 seed hands down. One loss and it would take an undefeated team to get it over them. There possibly might not even be one.

If Delaware runs the table with wins AT William & Mary, AT UMass and vs. Villanova, there is no way they aren't the #1 seed

[UNH Fanboi]

If Delaware runs the table with wins AT William & Mary, AT UMass and vs. Villanova, there is no way they aren't the #1 seed

If ASU runs the table, that would include a win over Florida. Yes, it's a down year for Florida, but that would probably be enough to give them the #1 seed. It doesn't really matter though because #2 is as good as #1.

[asu70]

If Delaware runs the table with wins AT William & Mary, AT UMass and vs. Villanova, there is no way they aren't the #1 seed

If App and UD run the table, UD will be #2 seed.

[Fear the Bird]

If App and UD run the table, UD will be #2 seed.

Ahh my apologies, I forgot the Florida game

[asu70]

Ahh my apologies, I forgot the Florida game

No apology needed, I would take being second seeded to a great UD team right now. UF might be down a little, but they'll be tough for any FCS team to beat at The Swamp.

[asknoquarter21]

my concern would be a scenerio of UD losing once(doesn't matter to who) and jax st winning out, ASU wins all but UF.

If ASU was #1 before the UF game would the loss to UF drop them to #3?

[Edge316007]

my concern would be a scenerio of UD losing once(doesn't matter to who) and jax st winning out, ASU wins all but UF.

If ASU was #1 before the UF game would the loss to UF drop them to #3?

No way. They'll pick up a huge quality win over Wofford in that scenario. Jacksonville state is living off their FBS win and scraping by bad teams otherwise. If they lost to Ole Miss they'd probably be a lot farther down the poll.

And it doesn't matter if App is #1 or #2 to me, since they both get home field through Frisco

[caribbeanhen]

UF might be down a little, but they'll be tough for any FCS team to beat at The Swamp.

just beat them anyway

[heath]

my concern would be a scenerio of UD losing once(doesn't matter to who) and jax st winning out, ASU wins all but UF.

If ASU was #1 before the UF game would the loss to UF drop them to #3?
Not with a respectable game.They go undefeated in the 2nd best FCS league......They will be 1 or 2 based on UD