Week 5: Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Delaware
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: UMass, William & Mary, James Madison, Villanova
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford, Georgia Southern
Southland: Texas State - San Marcos

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Southeast Missouri @ Texas State-San Marcos
Wofford @ Liberty
Hampton @ Villanova

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/Colgate winner @ #1 Appalachian State
UMass @ South Carolina State

Wofford/Liberty winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
James Madison @ Georgia Southern

Hampton/Villanova winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Western Illinois @ Montana State

SEMO/Texas State winner @ #2 Delaware
William & Mary @ Northern Iowa

[profisme]

I think you will still see 3 teams from the Big Sky this year. University of Montana will probably win out until Cat/Griz weekend and there is no way the committee will keep them out of the playoffs if they are 8-3. Eastern Washington could very well win out as they handily beat a Weber State team even without the best RB in FCS football, Taiwan Jones. They would be impossible to leave out of the playoffs after beating UM. If MSU runs the table until Cat/Griz, they will get in with at least a share of the conference title and the best overall record in the conference. I think that those three are still the top three teams in the conference and will probably all get into the playoffs. As for the rest of your predictions, I can't say too much because I am still recovering from the minor heart attack my Bobcats gave me yesterday.

[TexasTerror]

I think you will still see 3 teams from the Big Sky this year. University of Montana will probably win out until Cat/Griz weekend and there is no way the committee will keep them out of the playoffs if they are 8-3. Eastern Washington could very well win out as they handily beat a Weber State team even without the best RB in FCS football, Taiwan Jones. They would be impossible to leave out of the playoffs after beating UM. If MSU runs the table until Cat/Griz, they will get in with at least a share of the conference title and the best overall record in the conference. I think that those three are still the top three teams in the conference and will probably all get into the playoffs. As for the rest of your predictions, I can't say too much because I am still recovering from the minor heart attack my Bobcats gave me yesterday.

Big Sky is going to have it rough...

There's too many weaks in the season and way too many wins for most of the Big Sky contenders to get with limited opportunities to get them. Got a thread discussing it - http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74453-Big-Sky-Limited-to-AQ-for-Playoffs/

[Gil Dobie]

WIU is undefeated in the MVFC and had a better game against NDSU on the road.

[aceinthehole]

As the season progresses, I don't see the MEAC getting an at-large (Hampton). It's much more likely that Big Sky (Northern Arizona/Montana) gets at least 1 at-large bid. Also, you could see a 3rd team out of the MVFC (NDSU/Missouri State/YSU) and possibly Richmond (CAA) in the race for an at-large as well.

[profisme]

Big Sky is going to have it rough...

There's too many weaks in the season and way too many wins for most of the Big Sky contenders to get with limited opportunities to get them. Got a thread discussing it - http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74453-Big-Sky-Limited-to-AQ-for-Playoffs/

I have read that thread and up until yesterday's games where EWU showed they still have great capability to dominate a decent opponent and UM's beatdown of UNC, I would have agreed that it looked like a possible 1-bid year for the Big Sky. UM will end up being, well, UM. They will make the playoffs because that is what they do. Eastern's still has to clear the NAU hurdle, but I believe they will.

[CopperCat]

Big Sky is going to have it rough...

There's too many weaks in the season and way too many wins for most of the Big Sky contenders to get with limited opportunities to get them. Got a thread discussing it - http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74453-Big-Sky-Limited-to-AQ-for-Playoffs/

It sounds like you have just made up your mind to put the Big Sky on a back burner.

[DetroitFlyer]

It is simply mind numbing to think that either the OVC or the MEAC could get two teams into the FCS playoffs while the PFL champion stays home.... Things in the PFL could get real interesting this year. JU and Dayton both could go undefeated in the PFL since they do not play each other.... JU seems to be getting more love in the polls, but Dayton has a win over the potential NEC champion.... IF either Dayton or JU goes undefeated in the PFL, they deserve a bid over a second team from either the OVC or MEAC....

[Old Cage]

If you picks were correct, I doubt that four of the five CAA teams would be told to go on the road in the second round.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I think WIU should get the autobid for the MVC over UNI, at least just going by what has happened so far this season. Chattanooga has a chance to take the SoCon spot from Wofford.

DetroitFlyer -

I agree with you that the PFL should get a spot before a 2nd team from the MEAC or OVC. Actually, I don't think the MEAC should get an autobid at all.

[UAalum72]

Really, Hampton? They have wins against teams with records of 1-4, 0-4, and 0-5. Did you just decide that at this point the MEAC gets a second team in?

[TexasTerror]

Really, Hampton? They have wins against teams with records of 1-4, 0-4, and 0-5. Did you just decide that at this point the MEAC gets a second team in?

With the Big Sky still on my back burner until we get a bit deeper into the season for a second bid and several leagues out of the running for a second bid (see Big South, NEC) and the Pioneer having no legitimate chance at one (let's be honest with ourselves), it's easier to slot a second MEAC team at this point.

[CopperCat]

With the Big Sky still on my back burner until we get a bit deeper into the season for a second bid and several leagues out of the running for a second bid (see Big South, NEC) and the Pioneer having no legitimate chance at one (let's be honest with ourselves), it's easier to slot a second MEAC team at this point.

EWU, UM, and NAU have played MUCH more competetive schedules than Hampton has, not to mention the Big Sky is a stronger conference than the MEAC in the first place.

[TexasTerror]

EWU, UM, and NAU have played MUCH more competetive schedules than Hampton has, not to mention the Big Sky is a stronger conference than the MEAC in the first place.

Yes, but Montana and EWU have to each go 5-1 to make the playoffs. Even with the expansion, the committee will shy away from putting a six win team in, unless they are forced to with limited options...

Montana State is good to go and NAU is 2-1, but still has Montana and EWU remaining. I have good reasoning for putting the Big Sky on the backburner at this point and am aware of what's going on in that league. It's not like I am doing it due to some hate of the conference.

Whoever comes out of this week's NAU/EWU game is going to be to be in a GREAT position to make the playoffs. The other is going to be on the ropes. NAU still has Montana & Montana State after EWU! I see them being 'out' of the race in the next three weeks unless they find two wins... on the otherhand, they can absolutely spoil the season for any one of these three teams ahead.

[UAalum72]

With the Big Sky still on my back burner until we get a bit deeper into the season for a second bid and several leagues out of the running for a second bid (see Big South, NEC) and the Pioneer having no legitimate chance at one (let's be honest with ourselves), it's easier to slot a second MEAC team at this point.

Easier, but right? Note that in both the Massey and Sagarin ratings, both the Big South and NEC are ranked ahead of the MEAC this week.

Assuming they'll lose to SC State, Hampton will have to beat Old Dominion to get to 8 wins, and they may not be favored over Bethune-Cookman or even FAMU either.

[aceinthehole]

With the Big Sky still on my back burner until we get a bit deeper into the season for a second bid and several leagues out of the running for a second bid (see Big South, NEC) and the Pioneer having no legitimate chance at one (let's be honest with ourselves), it's easier to slot a second MEAC team at this point.

That's just an awful methodolgy for selecting teams, even at this early point in the schedule. The Big Sky today has a good chance of at least 1 at-large and if Liberty or RMU were to get upset once in league play (and lose the AQ) they would still have a better resume than Hampton.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I'd add a fourth team from the SoCon before a second from the MEAC.

[JaxSinfonian]

It is simply mind numbing to think that either the OVC or the MEAC could get two teams into the FCS playoffs while the PFL champion stays home.... Things in the PFL could get real interesting this year. JU and Dayton both could go undefeated in the PFL since they do not play each other.... JU seems to be getting more love in the polls, but Dayton has a win over the potential NEC champion.... IF either Dayton or JU goes undefeated in the PFL, they deserve a bid over a second team from either the OVC or MEAC....


I agree with you that the PFL should get a spot before a 2nd team from the MEAC or OVC. Actually, I don't think the MEAC should get an autobid at all.

How about we let the teams' records determine their worthiness for playoff spots, and not your perceptions of their conference's worthiness before anyone's played half their schedule yet? I hate to count any chickens before they've hatched, so I'll present this as a hypothetical: Suppose Jax State and Southeast Missouri both win the remainder of their games, except their contest against each other Nov. 13. If Jax State wins that game, they'd get the OVC autobid, and SEMO would finish 9-2 with losses only to JSU and FBS Ball State (27-10) and a win over a then-No. 5 SIU team (that is somehow still in the poll while the Redhawks aren't - for now). If SEMO beats JSU, they'd get the autobid, and Jax State would finish 10-1, likely still ranked in the top 15 and undefeated out of conference including an FBS win over the SEC's Ole Miss. If either of those scenarios play out, the OVC more than likely will get two teams into the playoffs, especially considering the four extra berths available this year. The same outcomes would likely have gotten both teams into a 16-team field. I'll let the MEAC fans speak up for their league.

Now, I mean no disrespect to the Pioneer League, but what victories could the Flyers or Dolphins - even assuming they both win out - point to that would match the accomplishments of the teams I described above? I don't know who the other 18 spots would go to (except for nine I assume the CAA will get), but I don't think it's homerism to suggest that under the hypothetical conditions I've presented both the Gamecocks and Redhawks would be in the postseason. If your team is to have a chance at the title, it needs to play and win big games. JU had a chance to prove it belonged Sept. 11, and didn't get it done. What's Dayton's biggest accomplishment so far?

I want no one to afford the OVC or its teams credit where it isn't earned, and many of the league's teams in recent years have proven themselves unprepared for competition with the FCS elite, my Gamecocks included. But so far this season Jax State and SEMO are getting it done. Let's see how they finish before ruling either of them out of the playoffs, OK?

[Go...gate]

It is simply mind numbing to think that either the OVC or the MEAC could get two teams into the FCS playoffs while the PFL champion stays home.... Things in the PFL could get real interesting this year. JU and Dayton both could go undefeated in the PFL since they do not play each other.... JU seems to be getting more love in the polls, but Dayton has a win over the potential NEC champion.... IF either Dayton or JU goes undefeated in the PFL, they deserve a bid over a second team from either the OVC or MEAC....

The Pioneer has got to get an autobid. Do you guys have a petition in?

[BlueHenSinfonian]

How about we let the teams' records determine their worthiness for playoff spots, and not your perceptions of their conference's worthiness before anyone's played half their schedule yet? I hate to count any chickens before they've hatched, so I'll present this as a hypothetical: Suppose Jax State and Southeast Missouri both win the remainder of their games, except their contest against each other Nov. 13. If Jax State wins that game, they'd get the OVC autobid, and SEMO would finish 9-2 with losses only to JSU and FBS Ball State (27-10) and a win over a then-No. 5 SIU team (that is somehow still in the poll while the Redhawks aren't - for now). If SEMO beats JSU, they'd get the autobid, and Jax State would finish 10-1, likely still ranked in the top 15 and undefeated out of conference including an FBS win over the SEC's Ole Miss. If either of those scenarios play out, the OVC more than likely will get two teams into the playoffs, especially considering the four extra berths available this year. The same outcomes would likely have gotten both teams into a 16-team field. I'll let the MEAC fans speak up for their league.

Now, I mean no disrespect to the Pioneer League, but what victories could the Flyers or Dolphins - even assuming they both win out - point to that would match the accomplishments of the teams I described above? I don't know who the other 18 spots would go to (except for nine I assume the CAA will get), but I don't think it's homerism to suggest that under the hypothetical conditions I've presented both the Gamecocks and Redhawks would be in the postseason. If your team is to have a chance at the title, it needs to play and win big games. JU had a chance to prove it belonged Sept. 11, and didn't get it done. What's Dayton's biggest accomplishment so far?

I want no one to afford the OVC or its teams credit where it isn't earned, and many of the league's teams in recent years have proven themselves unprepared for competition with the FCS elite, my Gamecocks included. But so far this season Jax State and SEMO are getting it done. Let's see how they finish before ruling either of them out of the playoffs, OK?

First of all, this is just mid-season musing, no reason to take it too seriously.

If Jax State and SEMO both run the table aside from their final game with each other, I could see both getting into the playoffs, though I think the PFL should still get an autobid. Maybe the CAA will just have to deal with 4 teams in instead of 5.

Conference strength does, and should, play a factor in playoff spots though. You could take UNH, which looks like they might not even get to the playoffs this year, stick them in the OVC, and they would be a conference championship contender. Jax State is traditionally probably the strongest team in the OVC, but it does look like SEMO is having a breakout year.

As far as the MEAC goes, they are usually all awful. All time they are 29-75 with the CAA, 2-26 with the MVC, 37-70 with the OVC, and 18-69 with the SoCon. The only conferences they have played enough games against and are competitive with are the Big South and the SWAC, which are usually also at the bottom of the rankings. SC State is having a great year, and I think they would win an at-large big even without the MEAC getting an autobid.

[WestCoastAggie]

Unfortunately, I don't see any MEAC teams in the top 20 of the Polls and our SOS is weak so the computer ratings will have us low. Only one team from the MEAC will get a bid.

The OVC is stronger and not only SEMO and Jax. St. are locks for the playoffs, AT THIS POINT, but Tenn. State will be a factor as well even though their loss to Jackson St. will hurt them.

[TexasTerror]

The OVC is stronger and not only SEMO and Jax. St. are locks for the playoffs, AT THIS POINT, but Tenn. State will be a factor as well even though their loss to Jackson St. will hurt them.

Tenn State losing their star RB did them in...

Still very optimistic that the SLC gets two teams in. Could squeeze in a third if a team can split with SFA/TXST this year and win out besides that. Perhaps a UCA at 9-2 (8-2 against Div I).

[emilimo701]

who is your #5 seed?