CAA Playoff Seed(s) and At-large Scenarios Thread

[UNH Fanboi]

I thought it would be fun to start a season-long thread where we can discuss which CAA teams will get into into the playoffs and get seed(s). I think the CAA will most likely get 4 teams into the playoffs, but there are some scenarios, which I will give one example of below, that could result in the CAA getting 5 teams into the playoffs. This scenario could also result in 3 CAA teams being considered for playoff seeds! Now before all the east-coast bias and CAA haters come in here and flame me, I'm not saying that will or should happen. But it would be a very interesting proposition for the committee depending on what happens in the other conferences.

When mapping out specific scenarios, it will be important to keep in mind which teams do not play each other.

UNH - Delaware
Nova - UMass
JMU - URI
W&M - Towson
Richmond - Maine

The good news so far is that all of the top teams have taken care of their OOC FCS business. The bad news is that only 1 team has 1 FBS win, so every team except JMU (pending W&M's FBS game) will need 5 CAA wins to make the playoffs. That includes Delaware because they played a DII game.

At this point, I think there are 3 tiers in the CAA, with 4 teams fighting for a seed, 3 teams fighting for their playoff lives, and 3 teams looking to play spoiler:

Tier 1:
Nova
JMU
Delaware
UMass

Tier 2:
UNH
W&M
Richmond

Tier 3:
Maine
URI
Towson

There could be movement between those tiers as the season develops, but that's how I see things now.

As we saw with URI upsetting UNH, every team in the CAA is dangerous, so it will be very hard for teams to win every game that they should win, which makes it unlikely that 5 teams will make the playoffs. That being said, consider the following scenario, which isn't too far-fetched:

JMU 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Delaware
Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
Nova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, JMU and UNH
UNH 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Nova, JMU and URI

Given the expanded playoffs, I think a 7-4 CAA team will (or at least should be) a lock for the playoffs. The more interesting question is what would the committee do with those three 7-1 CAA teams? I think JMU would obviously get a seed because of their record and FBS win. But how would you distinguish between Nova and Delaware? Nova would have the head-to-head win, but Delaware would have the better record, though no FBS opponent. Would it be possible for BOTH of them to get seeds if there is carnage in the other conferences. Remember, there will be 5 seeded teams this year.

Anyway, I hope this generates some good discussion throughout the season. Right now everything is very hypothetical, but that's part of the fun!

[superman7515]

It's still September... I can't imagine why some folks find CAA posters obnoxious. Haha.

[UNH Fanboi]

It's still September... I can't imagine why some folks find CAA posters obnoxious. Haha.

This is just the CAA equivalent of TT's playoff prognostications threads. Pure speculation because I'm bored.

[rufus]

It was just announced today that JMU is negotiating to rent Richmond's old stadium if we make the playoffs, since our stadium will be under construction immediately following our last regular season home game. It would definitely be surreal to see that field with JMU paint on it. With the number of fans JMU used to bring to that stadium, it always sort of felt like a home game. Now I suppose it really will be a home game.

[jstclmet]

JMU 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Delaware
Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
Nova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, JMU and UNH
UNH 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Nova, JMU and URI

Given the expanded playoffs, I think a 7-4 CAA team will (or at least should be) a lock for the playoffs. The more interesting question is what would the committee do with those three 7-1 CAA teams? I think JMU would obviously get a seed because of their record and FBS win. But how would you distinguish between Nova and Delaware? Nova would have the head-to-head win, but Delaware would have the better record, though no FBS opponent. Would it be possible for BOTH of them to get seeds if there is carnage in the other conferences. Remember, there will be 5 seeded teams this year.

Anyway, I hope this generates some good discussion throughout the season. Right now everything is very hypothetical, but that's part of the fun!

Nova could be 8 - 0 in the CAA, draw the #1 seed, and the other two could still be worthy of a top 5 seed, but I understand why you gave all 3 one loss. If Nova had to have one loss, it would be more easily digestible if it was at UD vs home to JMU. UD losing to JMU at JMU would probably more easily accepted.

Nova cannot and will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home. While the victory down in H-Burg was nice last year, there's some unfinished business that still needs to be resolved on the Main line. Regardless of how many injuries or how thin and depleted Nova will be by the 23rd, JMU needs to be dismembered limb from limb as retribution for that Hail Mary play of two years ago. Then, the world will rotate correctly again. xnodx

[GannonFan]

Nova could be 8 - 0 in the CAA, draw the #1 seed, and the other two could still be worthy of a top 5 seed, but I understand why you gave all 3 one loss. If Nova had to have one loss, it would be more easily digestible if it was at UD vs home to JMU. UD losing to JMU at JMU would probably more easily accepted.

Nova cannot and will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home. While the victory down in H-Burg was nice last year, there's some unfinished business that still needs to be resolved on the Main line. Regardless of how many injuries or how thin and depleted Nova will be by the 23rd, JMU needs to be dismembered limb from limb as retribution for that Hail Mary play of two years ago. Then, the world will rotate correctly again. xnodx

Retribution?? Really? Just cover the play next time and it won't happen. Heck, in that game nova blew coverage on two other TD's as well so there was plenty of inward blame to go around - I mean, who in the secondary didn't blow a TD that game?

[mcveyrl]

Retribution?? Really? Just cover the play next time and it won't happen. Heck, in that game nova blew coverage on two other TD's as well so there was plenty of inward blame to go around - I mean, who in the secondary didn't blow a TD that game?

Yea, I seem to remember a Fourth and 17 conversion for a touchdown (where Rodney Landers faked a run, no less)...which was identical to a play we ran against App earlier in the year.

[NovaWildcat]

The Hail Mary wasn't blown coverage. It was a fluke bounce that went off a player's helmet right into JMU hands. Can't do much about that - the players were defended. Unlucky bounce. Might have had other chances to prevent TD's earlier in the game, but the fact of the matter is that we still should've won if it wasn't for that bounce. Heartbreaking loss.

Yes, GannonFan, that's called RETRIBUTION. Similar to what your boys should be looking to do to us after getting smacked around the last couple of years.

This year's JMU game is homecoming as well. Should be a good crowd. Can't wait.

[jstclmet]

Retribution?? Really? Just cover the play next time and it won't happen. Heck, in that game nova blew coverage on two other TD's as well so there was plenty of inward blame to go around - I mean, who in the secondary didn't blow a TD that game?

Trust me son, your time with Nova will come soon enough, Nov 20 will be here in the flick of an eye, hopefully, you'll be able to attend as these two circle each other at the Tub. Been a long time since UD came out on the Victory side. Will this be their year??

[VUCats02]

I certainly don't see nova going 8-0 in the CAA. Remember, everyone Nova faces will probably be playing harder and will probably be more focused than playing other teams since we're the defending champs. I can definitely see Nova going 6-2 in the CAA (Nova would have had two losses last year as well if it wasn't for a 20-30 something yard field goal that richmond missed at the end of the game). The CAA is WAY too tough to go 8-0, and if you go 7-1, most likely you had a really lucky win that you shouldn't have won.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I certainly don't see nova going 8-0 in the CAA. Remember, everyone Nova faces will probably be playing harder and will probably be more focused than playing other teams since we're the defending champs. I can definitely see Nova going 6-2 in the CAA (Nova would have had two losses last year as well if it wasn't for a 20-30 something yard field goal that richmond missed at the end of the game). The CAA is WAY too tough to go 8-0, and if you go 7-1, most likely you had a really lucky win that you shouldn't have won.

You hit the nail on the head with that one. Aside from an occassional rebuilding year for a bad team, any CAA team is dangerous to any other. The 2003 Blue Hens were arguably the best CAA team of the decade, yet had an undefeated season ruined by Neastern of all teams.

[Nebuta]

Nova will not be 8-0 in the CAA if they play like they did last week. I dont see how any team in the CAA will go undefeated. Conference just too tough.

[jmufan999]

Nova... will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home.

you realize we've beaten you 5 out of the last 7 meetings, right? including the last trip to nova. and do you also realize you won't be facing a true freshman QB like last year... instead you'll get a redshirt senior who already played in the toughest environment he'll face all year. i'm not guaranteeing a win like you, i guess we'll just have to see what happens.

[JMUNJ08]

Nova cannot and will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home. While the victory down in H-Burg was nice last year, there's some unfinished business that still needs to be resolved on the Main line. Regardless of how many injuries or how thin and depleted Nova will be by the 23rd, JMU needs to be dismembered limb from limb as retribution for that Hail Mary play of two years ago. Then, the world will rotate correctly again. xnodx

Show some mercy! What was it? 27-0? We took just as big a punch to the gut as you did the year before just in a different form. This should be a great game but injuries and the next 3 weeks will give us more insight to how this will play out then we can write about now.

[Col Hogan]

UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, JMU and UNH


15611

[smcwildcat]

o please...no one thought umass would be as good as they're playing right now

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

15611

Stranger things have happened when UNH and UMass get together.....

Col, will you be in Foxboro?

[URMite]

If each tier lose to the one above it and away games against the same tier then...

JMU 7-1 loss @ Nova
Nova 7-1 loss @UD - misses UMass
UMass 7-1 loss @JMU - misses Nova
UD 6-2 losses @ JMU @UMass

UNH 4-4 (6-5) misses UD plus UR, W&M @ home [URI loss really hurts]
W&M 3-5
UR 2-6 xbawlingx

Assuming no one figures out how to play better or worse than they are now...xoopsxHere's hoping that isn't true for us! xprayx

[MacThor]

If each tier lose to the one above it and away games against the same tier then...

JMU 7-1 loss @ Nova
Nova 7-1 loss @UD - misses UMass
UMass 7-1 loss @JMU - misses Nova
UD 6-2 losses @ JMU @UMass

UNH 4-4 (6-5) misses UD plus UR, W&M @ home [URI loss really hurts]
W&M 3-5
UR 2-6 xbawlingx

Assuming no one figures out how to play better or worse than they are now...xoopsxHere's hoping that isn't true for us! xprayx

2-6, 4-7 is a very reasonable expectation for the Spiders at this point. That's assuming we win the three games we "should win" remaining on the schedule. We certainly can beat anyone left on the schedule, but the lines will need to play much better.

[GannonFan]

Trust me son, your time with Nova will come soon enough, Nov 20 will be here in the flick of an eye, hopefully, you'll be able to attend as these two circle each other at the Tub. Been a long time since UD came out on the Victory side. Will this be their year??

Sure I'll be there - why wouldn't I? It'll be nice to have a game mean something in this series - it's been quite awhile since both teams came into the game with something on the line other than pride - I think '04 was the last time both teams came in with seasons on the line.

[wideright82]

Nova will not be 8-0 in the CAA if they play like they did last week. I dont see how any team in the CAA will go undefeated. Conference just too tough.

Why is all I hear this year about Nova speculation because of the Penn game?


Was last years 14-3 victory over the quakers indicative of our season? Must have been, huh?


However I doubt we go undefeated too, but I could have seen it much easier had we not been hit with injuries.

[Nebuta]

Why is all I hear this year about Nova speculation because of the Penn game?


Was last years 14-3 victory over the quakers indicative of our season? Must have been, huh?


However I doubt we go undefeated too, but I could have seen it much easier had we not been hit with injuries.

You are right, Nova will not go undefeated.

Normally, 3 games in the season. A team can only be judge on a small body of work and the previous week is an good indication of how teams are playing and how oppenents are adjusting to was on film.

To answer your question.
Last year, Nova won the following week and didnt go undefeated in the conference play. 7-1. Won the NC

But if want to use history to try to prove your point. If you want to be completely honest, how did your seniors fared over their 4 yr career.
How did it go in 2008? when Nova got pushed to overtime by Penn. The following week they nearly lost to Richmond. Nova finished their season to JMU in the 2nd round of the playoffs for the 2nd time that season.
How did work out in 2007? when Villanova killed Penn. The following week Nova got killed the next week by 4 scores to JMU (35-7)Nova finished the season at 7-4 and was home watching the playoffs.

You can spin history like stats to prove your point. huh?

I am stating when I watched the Nova Penn game last week. Nothing on offensive side of the ball screamed high-powered. There was few and far between signs of hope for the offense, the way Nova struggled to score points. Granted its all about matchups and play calling, but what I saw last Saturday was a team that needed a pick 6 in the end to secure the game.
Like I said before, Nova will need to step it up on offense to have make a strong run in conference play and the playoffs.

[wideright82]

You are right, Nova will not go undefeated.

Normally, 3 games in the season. A team can only be judge on a small body of work and the previous week is an good indication of how teams are playing and how oppenents are adjusting to was on film.

To answer your question.
Last year, Nova won the following week and didnt go undefeated in the conference play. 7-1. Won the NC

But if want to use history to try to prove your point. If you want to be completely honest, how did your seniors fared over their 4 yr career.
How did it go in 2008? when Nova got pushed to overtime by Penn. The following week they nearly lost to Richmond. Nova finished their season to JMU in the 2nd round of the playoffs for the 2nd time that season.
How did work out in 2007? when Villanova killed Penn. The following week Nova got killed the next week by 4 scores to JMU (35-7)Nova finished the season at 7-4 and was home watching the playoffs.

You can spin history like stats to prove your point. huh?

I am stating when I watched the Nova Penn game last week. Nothing on offensive side of the ball screamed high-powered. There was few and far between signs of hope for the offense, the way Nova struggled to score points. Granted its all about matchups and play calling, but what I saw last Saturday was a team that needed a pick 6 in the end to secure the game.
Like I said before, Nova will need to step it up on offense to have make a strong run in conference play and the playoffs.


you aren't going to base it off of any of the other games they played is my point. You are using one game to be indicative, I wasn't. Don't try to call me out for being logically off base.

[Syntax Error]

Penn has one of the best defenses in FCS. Plus they most always play Nova tough.

[umassfan]

Penn has one of the best defenses in FCS. Plus they most always play Nova tough.

This is based off of their win vs Lafayette and game vs Nova? They have only played 2 games where most teams have played 3 or 4.

[Syntax Error]

This is based off of their win vs Lafayette and game vs Nova? They have only played 2 games where most teams have played 3 or 4.

It is based off of having a knowledge of their personnel and performance. The players have not played only two games in their careers, same for the coaches.

[Nebuta]

Gotcha, you are saying the Penn game was a fluke and is no means a representation of Nova's offense. Nor an indictation how Nova's offense may play in Conference. Please disregard the game for the most recent offensive performance. The starters were not playing at 100%, the play calling horrid at best and games tapes have all been erased, so there is no way a team can use the defensive schemes against Nova. This game in no way represents how Nova's offense run this season.

[FCS Go!]

Penn is/was considered a near top ten team by many people heading into the season because of their returning players and their play last year. Their efforts so far this year shouldn't really change that view.

[VUCats02]

UPenn had "statistically" the best defense last year, with a lot of players on that defense coming back, so by saying it's one of the best defenses this year, we're not just basing it based off their game vs Lafayette. All of last year they were dominant, and usually if you have a group of players who are dominant one year, and most come back the following year, they are still dominant. Plus nobody (from outside of Philly) seems to be taking into consideration that it was a BIG 5 MATCHUP. Temple is 50 times better than nova. Temple was beating Penn St. at halftime and barely lost to them. Is nova that good? Absolutely not. But the past 2 years the Nova-Temple game came down to the last play. Big 5 matchups are just different than normal games. They are almost always close - and they are almost always ugly. Nova would have only beaten Upenn last year 7-3 if it wasn't for an opening kickoff return from Szczur. All of the Nova people were saying take Upenn to cover the spread if you're a betting man, but when I looked at a lot of non-nova people's predictions, they had Nova winning in a blow out.

[wideright82]

Gotcha, you are saying the Penn game was a fluke and is no means a representation of Nova's offense. Nor an indictation how Nova's offense may play in Conference. Please disregard the game for the most recent offensive performance. The starters were not playing at 100%, the play calling horrid at best and games tapes have all been erased, so there is no way a team can use the defensive schemes against Nova. This game in no way represents how Nova's offense run this season.


Works for me. Thanks for understanding.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

If each tier lose to the one above it and away games against the same tier then...

JMU 7-1 loss @ Nova
Nova 7-1 loss @UD - misses UMass
UMass 7-1 loss @JMU - misses Nova
UD 6-2 losses @ JMU @UMass

UNH 4-4 (6-5) misses UD plus UR, W&M @ home [URI loss really hurts]
W&M 3-5
UR 2-6 xbawlingx

Assuming no one figures out how to play better or worse than they are now...xoopsx Here's hoping that isn't true for us! xprayx

That's probably as logical a way to look at things as one can today on October 1st. And yes the Rhody game will come back to haunt us in a huge way! xsmhx

At the same time, things never seem to fall so cleanly in the CAA. Between injuries, extreme weather and the figuring out how to play better or worse, seasons never map out as folks tend to think in late August.

Strapping on the seat belt in preparation for a wild ride. xnodx xnodx

[tandemlax]

Well that wild run has begun. Bit of a shake-up at the top/middle of the conference already today with several games still to play. With Delaware taking out the Dukes in Harrisonburg and the Tribe holding on over Nova, looks like we'll have to revise the model. On the upside, every team essentially controls its own destiny as far as making the playoffs, and even getting a seed. I think if Nova wins out they're a lock for a seed even with 2 losses. W&M has to be back in the conversation, and Delaware has certainly put themself in an enviable position. Big games every single week for here on out...

[Col Hogan]

Nova could be 8 - 0 in the CAA, draw the #1 seed, and the other two could still be worthy of a top 5 seed, but I understand why you gave all 3 one loss. If Nova had to have one loss, it would be more easily digestible if it was at UD vs home to JMU. UD losing to JMU at JMU would probably more easily accepted.

Nova cannot and will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home. While the victory down in H-Burg was nice last year, there's some unfinished business that still needs to be resolved on the Main line. Regardless of how many injuries or how thin and depleted Nova will be by the 23rd, JMU needs to be dismembered limb from limb as retribution for that Hail Mary play of two years ago. Then, the world will rotate correctly again. xnodx

Not any more!!!

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Well that wild run has begun. Bit of a shake-up at the top/middle of the conference already today with several games still to play. With Delaware taking out the Dukes in Harrisonburg and the Tribe holding on over Nova, looks like we'll have to revise the model. On the upside, every team essentially controls its own destiny as far as making the playoffs, and even getting a seed. I think if Nova wins out they're a lock for a seed even with 2 losses. W&M has to be back in the conversation, and Delaware has certainly put themself in an enviable position. Big games every single week for here on out...

I was thinking Delaware would get a nice breather with Maine and Rhody coming up on the schedule, but the way Maine is playing UNH makes me think they might be a challenge, and now W&M looks like a credible threat on the schedule again. CAA play is rough this year, we have Rhody and Towson at home (and Towson is actually playing tough against UMass, although given Towson's history I am willing to write this off as an aberration) but we still have to travel to W&M and to Amherst for the UMass game, and of course, finish our season with 'Nova. After today's win over JMU and Nova's loss to W&M we should come up #1 in the polls on Monday, but it's going to be a battle to stay there.

[superman7515]

Well with UNH losing to Maine tonight after the URI loss, does this stick a fork in their season?

[UNH Fanboi]

Well with UNH losing to Maine tonight after the URI loss, does this stick a fork in their season?

Yes xnonono2x

[soccerguy315]

Well with UNH losing to Maine tonight after the URI loss, does this stick a fork in their season?

if they don't run the table... still 4 games left against top 10 teams.

[SouthernMan]

Even one more loss and a 7-4 CAA team gets in (probably ousting a more deserving 7-4 team 8-3 team from another conference).....always remember, you cant spell NCAA without the CAA.

[UNH Fanboi]

I may look ridiculous in a couple of weeks, but here are my projections after Week 5:

1. Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to UMass
2. UMass 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
3. Villanova 6-2 (8-3) - loses to W&M and Delaware
4. JMU 5-3 (8-3) - loses to Delaware, Villanova and Maine xeyebrowx
5. W&M 4-4 (6-5) - loses to UMass, Delaware, JMU, UNH xeyebrowx and UNC, just barely missing the playoffs

Delaware and UMass get seeds.

[UNH Fanboi]

Projections after Week 6:

1. Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to UMass
2. UMass 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
3. Villanova 6-2 (8-3) - loses to W&M and Delaware
4. JMU 5-3 (8-3) - loses to Delaware, Villanova and W&M
5. W&M 5-3 (7-4) - loses to UMass, Delaware, UNH and UNC

Delaware and UMass get seeds.

[CAAisBOSS]

Projections after Week 6:

1. Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to UMass
2. UMass 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
3. Villanova 6-2 (8-3) - loses to W&M and Delaware
4. JMU 5-3 (8-3) - loses to Delaware, Villanova and W&M
5. W&M 5-3 (7-4) - loses to UMass, Delaware, UNH and UNC

Delaware and UMass get seeds.

you've been hating on the tribe all year. you really think UNH will win? or just a homer pick?

[MacThor]

I predict Richmond will beat at least one of the projected schools, muddying the waters even more. That still only gets us to 5-6, though. :)

[UNH Fanboi]

you've been hating on the tribe all year. you really think UNH will win? or just a homer pick?

I haven't been hating on them. I wasn't impressed with their performance against Maine or ODU, but things seem to be coming together for them. I don't think predicting that they lose to Delaware and UNC is all that controversial or hateresque. I think UNH matches up pretty well against W&M. Our defense is extremely good this year and will keep the game close like they have been for the past several years. I think having homefield advantage could tip this game in our favor. But I'm well aware that we haven't beaten you guys since 1998, so I don't feel all that confident about the prediction.

[WMTribe90]

I haven't been hating on them. I wasn't impressed with their performance against Maine or ODU, but things seem to be coming together for them. I don't think predicting that they lose to Delaware and UNC is all that controversial or hateresque. I think UNH matches up pretty well against W&M. Our defense is extremely good this year and will keep the game close like they have been for the past several years. I think having homefield advantage could tip this game in our favor. But I'm well aware that we haven't beaten you guys since 1998, so I don't feel all that confident about the prediction.

UNH doesn't match up well with WM because McDonnell can't out-coach and out-scheme WM like he does to other CAA programs. WM and UNH have very similar formulas for success and its hard to beat another team at their own game. IF WM plays to our abilities we should win this game. Of course, I don't take any road win in the CAA for granted.

[SpidersSportsEditor]

UNH smoked Richmond on Saturday and was still unimpressive. They have no running game to speak of and their offense in general is lackluster. Plus, our punter played QB for all but one series, meaning the UNH defense could load up on the run, and we still had essentially our third string running back rush for 100 yards in the first half. Richmond is worse (because of all the injuries), but if a top-CAA team loses to UNH, especially at home, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.

[Tribe4SF]

I haven't been hating on them. I wasn't impressed with their performance against Maine or ODU, but things seem to be coming together for them. I don't think predicting that they lose to Delaware and UNC is all that controversial or hateresque. I think UNH matches up pretty well against W&M. Our defense is extremely good this year and will keep the game close like they have been for the past several years. I think having homefield advantage could tip this game in our favor. But I'm well aware that we haven't beaten you guys since 1998, so I don't feel all that confident about the prediction.

You've got us beating JMU at their place, so I can't categorize you as hating.

[UNHFootballAlum]

UNH smoked Richmond on Saturday and was still unimpressive. They have no running game to speak of and their offense in general is lackluster. Plus, our punter played QB for all but one series, meaning the UNH defense could load up on the run, and we still had essentially our third string running back rush for 100 yards in the first half. Richmond is worse (because of all the injuries), but if a top-CAA team loses to UNH, especially at home, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.

Come on, Don't use the injury excuse. Everyone has injuries to key people at this time of the year. You either win or lose with who is playing the game

[WMTribe90]

I watched this game on Saturday. It was an ugly affair and neither team showed well. UR defense was impressive. Still limited UNH to 17 points despite seven turnovers from the UR offense. Yes, every team has injuries, but going from your 1st to 3rd string QB in the middle of a game is going to have a huge impact on the outcome of the game. The way the UR defense played, I think UR wins a close one, if Corp stays healthy. Would, coulda, I know...

[SpidersSportsEditor]

Come on, Don't use the injury excuse. Everyone has injuries to key people at this time of the year. You either win or lose with who is playing the game

Not my point. My point was that I don't think UNH is very good. You still could have won with Corp in the game, but if good CAA teams lose to NH, I won't feel sorry for them when they don't make the playoffs.

Other than the scoring drive to open the second half, I don't think objective UNH
fans took that game as a sign of good things to come. In fact, I heard a lot of complaining even when they had 7-0 halftime
lead.

[UNH Fanboi]

UNH smoked Richmond on Saturday and was still unimpressive. They have no running game to speak of and their offense in general is lackluster. Plus, our punter played QB for all but one series, meaning the UNH defense could load up on the run, and we still had essentially our third string running back rush for 100 yards in the first half. Richmond is worse (because of all the injuries), but if a top-CAA team loses to UNH, especially at home, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.

Believe me, I am well aware of UNH's limitations and have been on the record with those concerns. But against W&M we'll be at home and well-rested after a bye-week, whereas W&M will be coming off two tough games against Delaware and UNC. I don't think it's crazy to predict a close win under the circumstances.

[UNHFootballAlum]

Not my point. My point was that I don't think UNH is very good. You still could have won with Corp in the game, but if good CAA teams lose to NH, I won't feel sorry for them when they don't make the playoffs.

Other than the scoring drive to open the second half, I don't think objective UNH
fans took that game as a sign of good things to come. In fact, I heard a lot of complaining even when they had 7-0 halftime
lead.

I agreee that the offense has a lot of work to do, but give our Defense as much credit as you gave the UR defense. If I recall correctly, on the play that Corp was injured he threw a pick 6. We'll never know what woulda or coulda happened if Corp would have stayed in the game. Our TE was one of the league leaders in receptions after 2 games. he has not played since. That could have something to do with our offense stagnating as well. As I said, we can all talk about our key injuries and how they might have affected the game

[bigchocolate]

I thought it would be fun to start a season-long thread where we can discuss which CAA teams will get into into the playoffs and get seed(s). I think the CAA will most likely get 4 teams into the playoffs, but there are some scenarios, which I will give one example of below, that could result in the CAA getting 5 teams into the playoffs. This scenario could also result in 3 CAA teams being considered for playoff seeds! Now before all the east-coast bias and CAA haters come in here and flame me, I'm not saying that will or should happen. But it would be a very interesting proposition for the committee depending on what happens in the other conferences.

When mapping out specific scenarios, it will be important to keep in mind which teams do not play each other.

UNH - Delaware
Nova - UMass
JMU - URI
W&M - Towson
Richmond - Maine

The good news so far is that all of the top teams have taken care of their OOC FCS business. The bad news is that only 1 team has 1 FBS win, so every team except JMU (pending W&M's FBS game) will need 5 CAA wins to make the playoffs. That includes Delaware because they played a DII game.

At this point, I think there are 3 tiers in the CAA, with 4 teams fighting for a seed, 3 teams fighting for their playoff lives, and 3 teams looking to play spoiler:

Tier 1:
Nova
JMU
Delaware
UMass

Tier 2:
UNH
W&M
Richmond

Tier 3:
Maine
URI
Towson

There could be movement between those tiers as the season develops, but that's how I see things now.

As we saw with URI upsetting UNH, every team in the CAA is dangerous, so it will be very hard for teams to win every game that they should win, which makes it unlikely that 5 teams will make the playoffs. That being said, consider the following scenario, which isn't too far-fetched:

JMU 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Delaware
Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
Nova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, JMU and UNH
UNH 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Nova, JMU and URI

Given the expanded playoffs, I think a 7-4 CAA team will (or at least should be) a lock for the playoffs. The more interesting question is what would the committee do with those three 7-1 CAA teams? I think JMU would obviously get a seed because of their record and FBS win. But how would you distinguish between Nova and Delaware? Nova would have the head-to-head win, but Delaware would have the better record, though no FBS opponent. Would it be possible for BOTH of them to get seeds if there is carnage in the other conferences. Remember, there will be 5 seeded teams this year.

Anyway, I hope this generates some good discussion throughout the season. Right now everything is very hypothetical, but that's part of the fun!

Nooooooooo!!! 7-4 team should make that playoffs! I don't care if they play in the SEC

[Saint3333]

One, if not two, of the at-large playoff teams will be 7-4 this year and will be every year from now on with the expanded playoffs. Read the sig.

[URMite]

Come on, Don't use the injury excuse. Everyone has injuries to key people at this time of the year. You either win or lose with who is playing the game

Yes, using the injury excuse because of the QB is wrong. But no, not every team has 32 of their top 41 players from last year not able to take the field this year...

[UNHFootballAlum]

Yes, using the injury excuse because of the QB is wrong. But no, not every team has 32 of their top 41 players from last year not able to take the field this year...

So you lost 32 players from last year's team to injury? Where did you find enough able bodies to even practice or compete on the field and yet you've been ranked in the top ten this year. Wow! That is an unbelievable feat

[Saint3333]

UR lost 17 of 24 starters from last year, which is part of his point. My preseason UR predictions look spot on at the mid-point of the season.

[UNHFootballAlum]

UR lost 17 of 24 starters from last year, which is part of his point. My preseason UR predictions look spot on at the mid-point of the season.

He was using the excuse of injuries as to possibly why they lost to UNH. So for every game that they lose, they now have a built in excuse of graduating many of their key players. In addition, They also have a new coaching staff

[URMite]

So you lost 32 players from last year's team to injury? Where did you find enough able bodies to even practice or compete on the field and yet you've been ranked in the top ten this year. Wow! That is an unbelievable feat

"He was using the excuse of injuries as to possibly why they lost to UNH. So for every game that they lose, they now have a built in excuse of graduating many of their key players. In addition, They also have a new coaching staff"

I was actually trying to state that players lost to injury during a game shouldn't be used as an excuse for the outcome of a game, but that unanticipated losses of personnel can be used as an explanation of why a team's season long performance is not what some believed it would be.

We had 15 starters graduate as expected, 5 5th year seniors unexpectedly not return, and 12 other players from last season's two deep miss multiple games. That does lead to a situation where performance to date being less than originally expected shouldn't be a complete surprise.

That may mean your win is not as big of an accomplishment as you may think, but doesn't mean you have any less of a team. So just go win 3-0 in OT next week in Harrisonburg and we can both move on...xpeacex

[molly]

Nooooooooo!!! 7-4 team should make that playoffs! I don't care if they play in the SEC

Perhaps they shouldn't, but they will. Last year, 7-4 Weber State made it. In 2007, 7-4 UNH made it. If 7-4 teams made the playoffs with only 16 teams, why wouldn't they when there are 20 teams?

[UNHFootballAlum]

"He was using the excuse of injuries as to possibly why they lost to UNH. So for every game that they lose, they now have a built in excuse of graduating many of their key players. In addition, They also have a new coaching staff"

I was actually trying to state that players lost to injury during a game shouldn't be used as an excuse for the outcome of a game, but that unanticipated losses of personnel can be used as an explanation of why a team's season long performance is not what some believed it would be.

We had 15 starters graduate as expected, 5 5th year seniors unexpectedly not return, and 12 other players from last season's two deep miss multiple games. That does lead to a situation where performance to date being less than originally expected shouldn't be a complete surprise.

That may mean your win is not as big of an accomplishment as you may think, but doesn't mean you have any less of a team. So just go win 3-0 in OT next week in Harrisonburg and we can both move on...xpeacex

Considering all that you have said, are you surprised that UR has been ranked in the top 10 this year? if you read the CAAsports.com weekly release today, it says that the CAA has 4 of the top 10 defenses in the country. So possibly it is not all a matter of terrrible offensive play, but that these defenses have something to do with it. I think that the UNH offense has struggled in so many ways this year, unexpectantly. I will also say that the UR and UNH defenses play extremely well this past weekend and I believe that this trend will continue the rest of the way in the CAA

[URMite]

Considering all that you have said, are you surprised that UR has been ranked in the top 10 this year? if you read the CAAsports.com weekly release today, it says that the CAA has 4 of the top 10 defenses in the country. So possibly it is not all a matter of terrrible offensive play, but that these defenses have something to do with it. I think that the UNH offense has struggled in so many ways this year, unexpectantly. I will also say that the UR and UNH defenses play extremely well this past weekend and I believe that this trend will continue the rest of the way in the CAA

Preseason and through the 1st 3 weeks I was disagreeing with people that were giving us little chance to perform well. Even with all the changes, I knew we had the talent and it all depended on how well it meshed together. I was surprised by our ranking during that time, because of all the negative chatter even among our own fans, not because of my own evaluation of the team.

Since then (through the UD, CCU, & UNH games) I have been ranking our team 2-5 spots below the published polls. Even though I have seen the D starting to live up to expections, I have also seen the likelyhood of the O doing the same diminish for a longer and longer period.

But our ranking being above my expectations, may also be related to the huge number of inconsistent teams this year. Have there been more than 5 teams (if that many) who haven't had a poor performance or two this year?

And you are right about the D - with us finally living up to potentional, and your guys performance this year, is there any of the 7 ranked CAA teams that don't have a dangerous D?

[UNHFootballAlum]

Preseason and through the 1st 3 weeks I was disagreeing with people that were giving us little chance to perform well. Even with all the changes, I knew we had the talent and it all depended on how well it meshed together. I was surprised by our ranking during that time, because of all the negative chatter even among our own fans, not because of my own evaluation of the team.

Since then (through the UD, CCU, & UNH games) I have been ranking our team 2-5 spots below the published polls. Even though I have seen the D starting to live up to expections, I have also seen the likelyhood of the O doing the same diminish for a longer and longer period.


But our ranking being above my expectations, may also be related to the huge number of inconsistent teams this year. Have there been more than 5 teams (if that many) who haven't had a poor performance or two this year?

And you are right about the D - with us finally living up to potentional, and your guys performance this year, is there any of the 7 ranked CAA teams that don't have a dangerous D?

If you look at the CAA teams' scoring offensive numbers this eyar they are way down from last year. there is not one team in the league that is averaging over 30ppg. That is definately attributed to a higher level of "D" this year. Even teams like Towson, & URI have improved defenses. You are right that all of the defenses of the top 7 teams are extremely dangerous and capable of winning games by themselves. The offenses need to take care of the ball, try to get out to an early lead and don't give up short fields to the opponent.

[UNH Fanboi]

Projections after Week 7:

1. Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
2. Villanova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to W&M
3. UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Richmond, Delaware, and JMU
4. W&M 5-3 (7-4) - loses to UMass, Delaware, UNH and UNC
5. JMU 4-4 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, UNH, Villanova and W&M

Delaware and Nova get seeds.

I am bullish on Nova and bearish on JMU and UMass. I am also bullish on W&M, but they're remaining schedule is very tough. UMass v. UNH next week should be very close, but with the way that UMass has owned us in big games, I can't pick us to win that one. I am sticking by my prediction of UNH over W&M for the reasons previously stated: UNH will be at home after a bye week and W&M will be coming off of two very tough games against Delaware and UNC.

If things work out as I predict above, will the committee leave one of the 7-4 teams out? With Cal-Poly losing, the MVFC in chaos, the Patriot getting destroyed OOC, the Big Sky possible beating up on each other, and the Southland without a clear #2, I don't think so, but you never know. While we're on the subject, what would the committee do in the following scenario (Note - I am not saying this is likely to happen):

1. Nova 7-1 (9-2) - Loses to W&M
2. Delaware 6-2 (9-2) - Loses to Nova and UMass
3. UMass 5-3 (7-4) - Loses to Richmond, UNH and JMU
4. W&M 5-3 (7-4) - Loses to UMass, Delaware, UNC and UNH
5. UNH 5-3 (7-4) - Loses to URI, Maine and Nova
6. JMU 4-4 (7-4) - Loses to Delaware, UNH, Nova and W&M

There would be 4 CAA teams with 7 D1 wins. Could the committee possibly give the CAA 5 at-larges?? If they leave one of them out, which one do they pick?? You could make a ton of different arguments: UNH would have a H2H win over each of the other 7-4 teams, so that should put them in. JMU has a win over a Top 25 FBS, so that should put them in. W&M would have a win over a seeded team and the conference champ, so that should put them in. But then UMass has a H2H win over W&M and win over Delaware, so that should put them in. As you can see, it would be extremely difficult to pick 3 out those 4 teams in any objective manner. Could a 10-1 Jacksonville who hasn't beaten anyone get in over one of them?? It's crazy to even think about it.

[WestCoastAggie]

Projections after Week 7:

1. Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
2. Villanova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to W&M
3. UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Richmond, Delaware, and JMU
4. W&M 5-3 (7-4) - loses to UMass, Delaware, UNH and UNC
5. JMU 4-4 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, UNH, Villanova and W&M

Delaware and Nova get seeds.

I am bullish on Nova and bearish on JMU and UMass. I am also bullish on W&M, but they're remaining schedule is very tough. UMass v. UNH next week should be very close, but with the way that UMass has owned us in big games, I can't pick us to win that one. I am sticking by my prediction of UNH over W&M for the reasons previously stated: UNH will be at home after a bye week and W&M will be coming off of two very tough games against Delaware and UNC.

If things work out as I predict above, will the committee leave one of the 7-4 teams out? With Cal-Poly losing, the MVFC in chaos, the Patriot getting destroyed OOC, the Big Sky possible beating up on each other, and the Southland without a clear #2, I don't think so, but you never know. While we're on the subject, what would the committee do in the following scenario (Note - I am not saying this is likely to happen):

1. Nova 7-1 (9-2) - Loses to W&M
2. Delaware 6-2 (9-2) - Loses to Nova and UMass
3. UMass 5-3 (7-4) - Loses to Richmond, UNH and JMU
4. W&M 5-3 (7-4) - Loses to UMass, Delaware, UNC and UNH
5. UNH 5-3 (7-4) - Loses to URI, Maine and Nova
6. JMU 4-4 (7-4) - Loses to Delaware, UNH, Nova and W&M

There would be 4 CAA teams with 7 D1 wins. Could the committee possibly give the CAA 5 at-larges?? If they leave one of them out, which one do they pick?? You could make a ton of different arguments: UNH would have a H2H win over each of the other 7-4 teams, so that should put them in. JMU has a win over a Top 25 FBS, so that should put them in. W&M would have a win over a seeded team and the conference champ, so that should put them in. But then UMass has a H2H win over W&M and win over Delaware, so that should put them in. As you can see, it would be extremely difficult to pick 3 out those 4 teams in any objective manner. Could a 10-1 Jacksonville who hasn't beaten anyone get in over one of them?? It's crazy to even think about it.

Jacksonville is getting serious love from the computer rankings that the Committee will use in their modified version of the GPI.

[UNH Fanboi]

Predictions through Week 9:

1. Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to W&M
2. Villanova 6-2 (8-3) - loses to W&M and Delaware
3. W&M 6-2 (8-3) - loses to UMass and UNH
4. UNH 5-3 (7-4) - loses to URI, Maine and Nova
5. UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Richmond, UNH and Delaware

Delaware gets a seed

I haven't been right about much this year, but I'm standing by my prediction of UNH over W&M. W&M is banged up, and UNH is at home, on a roll and well rested. Nevertheless, UMass still has a better chance of making the playoffs than UNH because of their easier schedule.

I think the Delaware-Nova game will be extremely close, but I think home field advantage will tip that game in Delaware's favor.

With SFA's loss this weekend, there's a slight possibility of an 8-3 CAA team getting a seed.