Week 4: Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Illinois State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Georgetown
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: UMass, Delaware, James Madison
Great West: Cal Poly
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, Youngstown State
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Texas State University - San Marcos

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Georgetown @ Delaware
Robert Morris @ Hampton
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Delaware winner @ #1 Villanova
UMass @ Illinois State

Coastal Carolina/James Madison winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Youngstown State @ Texas State - San Marcos

Robert Morris/Hampton winner @ #2 Appalachian State
South Carolina State @ Georgia Southern

Western Illinois/SEMO winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Cal Poly @ Montana State

[Squealofthepig]

Do you think Nova really will win the CAA? Nova definitely still is a playoff team, and could repeat as a national champion, but I imagine another colonial team will play spoiler this year. Just a lot of parity there, and Nova showed some weaknesses today.

Also see Cal Poly in the mix, given wins over Montana and McNeese (good but not great teams). The Great West has some significant wins this year, and I can't see the entire conference being completely left out of the playoffs with the expansion. Also like the Robert Morris pick.

[TexasTerror]

Do you think Nova really will win the CAA? Nova definitely still is a playoff team, and could repeat as a national champion, but I imagine another colonial team will play spoiler this year. Just a lot of parity there, and Nova showed some weaknesses today.

Everyone shows weaknesses, but until they are beat - hard to justify moving.


Also see Cal Poly in the mix, given wins over Montana and McNeese (good but not great teams). The Great West has some significant wins this year, and I can't see the entire conference being completely left out of the playoffs with the expansion. Also like the Robert Morris pick.

Cal Poly is in there... if they stumble in the conference, they'll squeeze themselves out...

[umassfan]

Right now I would pick Delaware as the CAA sleeper for the title. They made Richmond look really bad today.

[Squealofthepig]

Right now I would pick Delaware as the CAA sleeper for the title. They made Richmond look really bad today.

Yeah - if I was a betting man, I'm not sure who I would bet on in the CAA between Delaware, UMass, JMU and Nova. Will be interesting to see how the CAA shakes out, as that will define what the road to the NC looks like.

Ultimately, as far as the CAA is concerned, this is a good problem to have. :)

[GoAgs72]

It is quite possible that the Big Sky and Great West together may end up with just one team in the playoffs - Montana State.

[X-Factor]

Where is NDSU? I think you had them on there last week. We already have 3 division I wins, that is more than some of the teams on that list can say...like Illinois State for example. xeyebrowx

[Twentysix]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Illinois State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Georgetown
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: UMass, Delaware, James Madison
Great West: Cal Poly
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, Youngstown State
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Texas State University - San Marcos

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Georgetown @ Delaware
Robert Morris @ Hampton
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Delaware winner @ #1 Villanova
UMass @ Illinois State

Coastal Carolina/James Madison winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Youngstown State @ Texas State - San Marcos

Robert Morris/Hampton winner @ #2 Appalachian State
South Carolina State @ Georgia Southern

Western Illinois/SEMO winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Cal Poly @ Montana State

Jeesh i hope western doesnt get the At large over us.

NDSU won there BCS game, NDSU beat a ranked opponent handily. And i personally put morgan state over Valpo.

[GoGSU]

I wouldn't be so sure on that "automatic bid" in the SoCon just yet........ ;)

[AppStateold299]

I wouldn't be so sure on that "automatic bid" in the SoCon just yet........ ;)


Awwwe...The arrogant GSU (Georgia Southern not Georgia State) is finally back. It is good to have them so confident yet again. I have missed the confidence in their step. I personally still think they have to prove consistency before they take the lead again. I admit you have had some pretty convincing and impressive wins this season. Congrats on the start of the season and I look forward to the matchup on November 6th. I will be there at Paulson to see the possible SoCon game of the season.

[bluehenbillk]

Don't sleep on the Blue Hens TT. They beat up Richmond yesterday, winning by 3 TD's in a CAA road game. If they beat JMU next week I'll expect you to have a top-4 seed label next to their name....

[Gil Dobie]

Jeesh i hope western doesnt get the At large over us.

NDSU won there BCS game, NDSU beat a ranked opponent handily. And i personally put morgan state over Valpo.

NDSU only beat USD, while WIU beat Indiana St for a conference win. Need to let the players decide their fate on the field.

[TexasTerror]

It is still early guys...

Conference games just started. Glad you guys are enjoying discussing various team's merits!

[caribbeanhen]

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Delaware winner @ #1 Villanova

I would hope Nova and Delaware are paired on opposite sides of the bracket potentially setting up a true NC game

[superman7515]

Oddly enough, I believe that Maine could have a say in who wins the CAA. Just a 3 point loss to William & Mary, so they could knock off a team or two, especially at home, in the coming weeks. Be careful this week UNH... lose this one after a loss to URI and that could be all she wrote.

[Saint3333]

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Delaware winner @ #1 Villanova

I would hope Nova and Delaware are paired on opposite sides of the bracket potentially setting up a true NC game

Wow...

[WrenFGun]

Oddly enough, I believe that Maine could have a say in who wins the CAA. Just a 3 point loss to William & Mary, so they could knock off a team or two, especially at home, in the coming weeks. Be careful this week UNH... lose this one after a loss to URI and that could be all she wrote.

* -- it would be all she wrote. :)

[Professor Chaos]

Jeesh i hope western doesnt get the At large over us.

NDSU won there BCS game, NDSU beat a ranked opponent handily. And i personally put morgan state over Valpo.

NDSU only beat USD, while WIU beat Indiana St for a conference win. Need to let the players decide their fate on the field.

Agreed, NDSU hasn't won a conference game yet. OOC wins are great, especially against quality opponents like KU and USD, but NDSU needs to start winning in conference to prove their playoff pedigree. A win against WIU would be a step in that direction next week but the Bison have to put up at least 4 more wins before I'll stop quoting Jim Mora when people talk about the Bison in the playoffs.

[jlcharles]

Do you think Nova really will win the CAA? Nova definitely still is a playoff team, and could repeat as a national champion, but I imagine another colonial team will play spoiler this year. Just a lot of parity there, and Nova showed some weaknesses today.

Also see Cal Poly in the mix, given wins over Montana and McNeese (good but not great teams). The Great West has some significant wins this year, and I can't see the entire conference being completely left out of the playoffs with the expansion. Also like the Robert Morris pick.

The only thing I can say about Nova is that we played like crap against Penn last year as well and we lost our best player early in the game. I'm not saying we're going to win the CAA, but I don't think this will be indicative of how the rest of the season will go. IMO, it looked like we thought Penn would roll over for us and I expect the combination of that scare and Talley's coaching to get it out of their systems real quick.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Agreed, NDSU hasn't won a conference game yet. OOC wins are great, especially against quality opponents like KU and USD, but NDSU needs to start winning in conference to prove their playoff pedigree. A win against WIU would be a step in that direction next week but the Bison have to put up at least 4 more wins before I'll stop quoting Jim Mora when people talk about the Bison in the playoffs.


If the Bison keep playing like they are capable of, the playoffs will take care itself.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Kudos to the CCU and GSU picks last week. They are both look better after week 4.

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State - yeah, I'd say that's the best pick for now. Though Northern Arizona could also take it.

Big South: Coastal Carolina - CCU will get better as the season goes on and will be ready for Gardner-Webb and Libery late season. I think they'll get the inagural Big South autobid

Colonial: Delaware - a good offense plus one of the best defenses in the FCS (#1 in scoring defense now against some pretty good teams) means the hens are for real. Might be the best team in the FCS

MEAC: South Carolina State - could be the most uncontested conference champ of this year. Who's playing for second?

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa - Might be the first time in a while that the CAA doesn't have the most exciting conference race. YSU, UNI, WIU, and ISU could all win it. UNI has a stout defense (held the Moses Machine in check) and the offense will get better and give them the title.

Northeast: Robert Morris - Hard to argue against that.

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State - Don't think they are a top 10 in the FCS, but they are the best in the OVC as far as I'm concerned

Patriot: Georgetown - A very nice turnaround from last year, especially on offense. GSU and G-town can be the comeback kids of the FCS for 2010.

SoCon: Appalachian State - GSU and Furman can win the conference, but App. State is still the best pick. Will probably have to wait for GSU-FU, GSU-ASU, and ASU-FU games to know for sure. Feels like old times in the SoCon.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin - Probably the best SLC team since at latest 2005 (that Texas State semifinal team)

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana - isn't looking real great for the Griz right now, but they'll claw and tooth their way back into the playoffs. Mark it down

Colonial: Villanova, JMU, UMass - the CAA gets four in. UNH and Richmond and W&M possibly not being as good as expected keep the CAA from knocking too many of themselves out of contention.

Big South: Liberty - Flames finish with at least 8 wins and with an FBS win I think they'll be the last team in

Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, Illinois State - and YSU is one of the first ones out

Southern: Georgia Southern, Furman - as with the CAA, Wofford and Elon being somewhat down makes more room at the top. The Big 3 go into the playoffs together for the first time since 2005.

Southland: Texas State - whoever is second behind SFA will get this AL bid

SEEDS
1. Delaware
2. Appalachian State
3. Stephen F. Austin
4. Villanova

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Georgetown @ Jacksonville State
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Liberty @ Texas State
Coastal Carolina @ UMass

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Jacksonville State winner @ #1 Delaware
Georgia Southern @ James Madison

Liberty/Texas State winner @ #4 Villanova
Western Illinois @ Montana

Coastal Carolina/UMass winner @ #2 Appalachian State
Furman @ Illinois State

Robert Morris/South Carolina State winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Northern Iowa @ Montana State

I know what you're thinking - "OMG, WIU has to go play the Griz in Missoula?" But that's the nature of the playoff format we've had since 2001.

[caribbeanhen]

Colonial: Delaware - a good offense plus one of the best defenses in the FCS (#1 in scoring defense now against some pretty good teams) means the hens are for real. Might be the best team in the FCS.

nice observation Sir, and to think that Tex had excluded Delaware from even making the playoffs after week 1

[UNIFanSince1983]

Kudos to the CCU and GSU picks last week. They are both look better after week 4.

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State - yeah, I'd say that's the best pick for now. Though Northern Arizona could also take it.

Big South: Coastal Carolina - CCU will get better as the season goes on and will be ready for Gardner-Webb and Libery late season. I think they'll get the inagural Big South autobid

Colonial: Delaware - a good offense plus one of the best defenses in the FCS (#1 in scoring defense now against some pretty good teams) means the hens are for real. Might be the best team in the FCS

MEAC: South Carolina State - could be the most uncontested conference champ of this year. Who's playing for second?

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa - Might be the first time in a while that the CAA doesn't have the most exciting conference race. YSU, UNI, WIU, and ISU could all win it. UNI has a stout defense (held the Moses Machine in check) and the offense will get better and give them the title.

Northeast: Robert Morris - Hard to argue against that.

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State - Don't think they are a top 10 in the FCS, but they are the best in the OVC as far as I'm concerned

Patriot: Georgetown - A very nice turnaround from last year, especially on offense. GSU and G-town can be the comeback kids of the FCS for 2010.

SoCon: Appalachian State - GSU and Furman can win the conference, but App. State is still the best pick. Will probably have to wait for GSU-FU, GSU-ASU, and ASU-FU games to know for sure. Feels like old times in the SoCon.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin - Probably the best SLC team since at latest 2005 (that Texas State semifinal team)

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana - isn't looking real great for the Griz right now, but they'll claw and tooth their way back into the playoffs. Mark it down

Colonial: Villanova, JMU, UMass - the CAA gets four in. UNH and Richmond and W&M possibly not being as good as expected keep the CAA from knocking too many of themselves out of contention.

Big South: Liberty - Flames finish with at least 8 wins and with an FBS win I think they'll be the last team in

Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, Illinois State - and YSU is one of the first ones out

Southern: Georgia Southern, Furman - as with the CAA, Wofford and Elon being somewhat down makes more room at the top. The Big 3 go into the playoffs together for the first time since 2005.

Southland: Texas State - whoever is second behind SFA will get this AL bid

SEEDS
1. Delaware
2. Appalachian State
3. Stephen F. Austin
4. Villanova

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Georgetown @ Jacksonville State
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Liberty @ Texas State
Coastal Carolina @ UMass

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Jacksonville State winner @ #1 Delaware
Georgia Southern @ James Madison

Liberty/Texas State winner @ #4 Villanova
Western Illinois @ Montana

Coastal Carolina/UMass winner @ #2 Appalachian State
Furman @ Illinois State

Robert Morris/South Carolina State winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Northern Iowa @ Montana State

I know what you're thinking - "OMG, WIU has to go play the Griz in Missoula?" But that's the nature of the playoff format we've had since 2001.

While this still isn't out of the realm of possibility, and we are currently 1-0 in conference I don't see us winning the conference. A couple things would need to happen. Our offense needs to get light years better, and cut down on turnovers. We are currently -8 in that department this year after only 3 games. To me we need to start Zach Davis, and that depends on how injured he is. We did see how much better NDSUs offense got after they switched quarterbacks. The MVFC is more up for grabs than it has been in a real long time. It seems as if anyone (sans Indiana State) has a realistic chance to win it. Just can't wait to see how things pan out!

[caribbeanhen]

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Delaware winner @ #1 Villanova

I would hope Nova and Delaware are paired on opposite sides of the bracket potentially setting up a true NC game


Wow...

although I am a bit concerned about Nova

[Tribe4SF]

Oddly enough, I believe that Maine could have a say in who wins the CAA. Just a 3 point loss to William & Mary, so they could knock off a team or two, especially at home, in the coming weeks. Be careful this week UNH... lose this one after a loss to URI and that could be all she wrote.

Maine has a solid team, and their offense has come alive the last two weeks, but their undisciplined play is hurting them. Their defense is good enough to have them in most games, and if they can find a way to finish without shooting themselves in the foot they may pull some upsets. UNH game is huge for both teams.

[VUCats02]

Delaware is a great team and they looked very scary against richmond, but the season is still early and I think there's a lot of overreacting going on. Regardless, I'd be very scared to play Delaware in the 1st game of the playoffs - hope that they are on the opposite side of the bracket from nova :-P

[R3TRO]

Maine has a solid team, and their offense has come alive the last two weeks, but their undisciplined play is hurting them. Their defense is good enough to have them in most games, and if they can find a way to finish without shooting themselves in the foot they may pull some upsets. UNH game is huge for both teams.

Always is a huge game.

[rufus]

JMU will only be playing a home game if we can find a stadium to play it in. Bridgeforth will be under renovation as soon as we finish our last regular season home game.

[Fear the Bird]

So last week you give Delaware a first round bye - now this week after blowing Richmond out of the water in their home, they play a first round road game and go to the #1 seed in the second round?

[Black Saturday]

Right now I would pick Delaware as the CAA sleeper for the title. They made Richmond look really bad today.

Gotta agree somewhat, UMass was pretty impressive vs. Michigan last week as I thought Delaware looked pretty good against Richmond this week. It'll be interesting to see how the top 4 CAA teams shake out, hopefully they all play each other for a fair assessment. At the moment, I think, in no certain order JMU, Villanova, UMass, and Delaware should be in the top 5 national teams.

[ToTheLeft]

You guys are DELUSIONAL if you think CCU is a threat for the Big South title. It's Stony Brook or LU, that's it.

Have you checked CCU's record? They're terrible. They lost a close one to TOWSON, while SBU and LU lost close ones to TOP CAA teams. They haven't beat anyone but a VERY BAD Del St. team.

They just don't compare. SBU and LU have the league in the palm of their hands.

[UAalum72]

You guys are DELUSIONAL if you think CCU is a threat for the Big South title. It's Stony Brook or LU, that's it.

Have you checked CCU's record? They're terrible. They lost a close one to TOWSON, while SBU and LU lost close ones to TOP CAA teams. They haven't beat anyone but a VERY BAD Del St. team.

They just don't compare. SBU and LU have the league in the palm of their hands.Robert Morris is not a top CAA team.

[Twentysix]

NDSU only beat USD, while WIU beat Indiana St for a conference win. Need to let the players decide their fate on the field.


Agreed, NDSU hasn't won a conference game yet. OOC wins are great, especially against quality opponents like KU and USD, but NDSU needs to start winning in conference to prove their playoff pedigree. A win against WIU would be a step in that direction next week but the Bison have to put up at least 4 more wins before I'll stop quoting Jim Mora when people talk about the Bison in the playoffs.

I guess i really dont understand what you mean, So your saying if you beat a Terrible team from your conference it has more weight when deciding an atlarge bid than beating a ranked team from another conference? Fer realz? I guess i was unaware that the indiana state game means more for us (in the case of an at large bid, which is what TT was placing WIU in) than beating a ranked opponent.

I was under the impression that if you did not win your conference your overall record and the teams you beat to earn that overall record (assuming 7 Div 1 wins) was all that mattered.

Say MVFC 1st place gets AQ 8-3 (8-0); 2nd place goes 8-3(6-2) playing only cupcakes ooc; and 3rd place goes 8-3 (5-3) but third place beats an FBS team and a ranked OOC team that finishes well; and 2nd place played a weak ooc SOS.

Wouldnt the atlarge go to 3rd place at 8-3 (5-3) because of SOS and better wins?

What you said totally contradicts that.

----------------------------------------------------

One other thing, you realize your in a prediction thread where all we have to go off of is 4 weeks? Last years teams have no bearing on the matter, only what these teams have done up to this point and could potentially do down the road.

[Gil Dobie]

I guess i really dont understand what you mean, So your saying if you beat a Terrible team from your conference it has more weight when deciding an atlarge bid than beating a ranked team from another conference? Fer realz? I guess i was unaware that the indiana state game means more for us (in the case of an at large bid, which is what TT was placing WIU in) than beating a ranked opponent.

I was under the impression that if you did not win your conference your overall record and the teams you beat to earn that overall record (assuming 7 Div 1 wins) was all that mattered.

Say MVFC 1st place gets AQ 8-3 (8-0); 2nd place goes 8-3(6-2) playing only cupcakes ooc; and 3rd place goes 8-3 (5-3) but third place beats an FBS team and a ranked OOC team that finishes well; and 2nd place played a weak ooc SOS.

Wouldnt the atlarge go to 3rd place at 8-3 (5-3) because of SOS and better wins?

What you said totally contradicts that.

I was being sarcastic :)

[Twentysix]

Oic. Sarcasm doesnt bode well on the internet. Ive learned this first hand, now i hope you have too.

[Twentysix]

Kudos to the CCU and GSU picks last week. They are both look better after week 4.

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State - yeah, I'd say that's the best pick for now. Though Northern Arizona could also take it.

Big South: Coastal Carolina - CCU will get better as the season goes on and will be ready for Gardner-Webb and Libery late season. I think they'll get the inagural Big South autobid

Colonial: Delaware - a good offense plus one of the best defenses in the FCS (#1 in scoring defense now against some pretty good teams) means the hens are for real. Might be the best team in the FCS

MEAC: South Carolina State - could be the most uncontested conference champ of this year. Who's playing for second?

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa - Might be the first time in a while that the CAA doesn't have the most exciting conference race. YSU, UNI, WIU, and ISU could all win it. UNI has a stout defense (held the Moses Machine in check) and the offense will get better and give them the title.

Northeast: Robert Morris - Hard to argue against that.

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State - Don't think they are a top 10 in the FCS, but they are the best in the OVC as far as I'm concerned

Patriot: Georgetown - A very nice turnaround from last year, especially on offense. GSU and G-town can be the comeback kids of the FCS for 2010.

SoCon: Appalachian State - GSU and Furman can win the conference, but App. State is still the best pick. Will probably have to wait for GSU-FU, GSU-ASU, and ASU-FU games to know for sure. Feels like old times in the SoCon.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin - Probably the best SLC team since at latest 2005 (that Texas State semifinal team)

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana - isn't looking real great for the Griz right now, but they'll claw and tooth their way back into the playoffs. Mark it down

Colonial: Villanova, JMU, UMass - the CAA gets four in. UNH and Richmond and W&M possibly not being as good as expected keep the CAA from knocking too many of themselves out of contention.

Big South: Liberty - Flames finish with at least 8 wins and with an FBS win I think they'll be the last team in

Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, Illinois State - and YSU is one of the first ones out

Southern: Georgia Southern, Furman - as with the CAA, Wofford and Elon being somewhat down makes more room at the top. The Big 3 go into the playoffs together for the first time since 2005.

Southland: Texas State - whoever is second behind SFA will get this AL bid

SEEDS
1. Delaware
2. Appalachian State
3. Stephen F. Austin
4. Villanova

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Georgetown @ Jacksonville State
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Liberty @ Texas State
Coastal Carolina @ UMass

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Jacksonville State winner @ #1 Delaware
Georgia Southern @ James Madison

Liberty/Texas State winner @ #4 Villanova
Western Illinois @ Montana

Coastal Carolina/UMass winner @ #2 Appalachian State
Furman @ Illinois State

Robert Morris/South Carolina State winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Northern Iowa @ Montana State

I know what you're thinking - "OMG, WIU has to go play the Griz in Missoula?" But that's the nature of the playoff format we've had since 2001.

Still dont understand the love for WIU. They could deserve it, they just havent played anyone that proves they deserve it.

[darell1976]

Cal Poly is the only team out of the GWFC to have a shot at the playoffs but with the other 4 teams in the conference in a dog fight they may not make it.

[Tribe4SF]

Robert Morris is not a top CAA team.

Think he's referring to LU's loss to JMU yesterday.

[ToTheLeft]

Think he's referring to LU's loss to JMU yesterday.

Yup. RMU loss was pretty bad for LU, but RMU is a potential playoff team, Towson is going to be 1-10.

[Redwyn]

Yup. RMU loss was pretty bad for LU, but RMU is a potential playoff team, Towson is going to be 1-10.

Overall, both SBU and Liberty created question marks in their losses in week 3. This week was encouraging, but it has to translate into W's on the board. Yardage is no consolation prize.

[zilla]

You guys are DELUSIONAL if you think CCU is a threat for the Big South title. It's Stony Brook or LU, that's it.

Have you checked CCU's record? They're terrible. They lost a close one to TOWSON, while SBU and LU lost close ones to TOP CAA teams. They haven't beat anyone but a VERY BAD Del St. team.

TTL, don't write Coastal off just yet. We get your Flames & SB, the two teams that have the BSC in the "palm of their hands," at home this year. We're better than our 1-3 record indicates (ask some GA Southern fans - they'll tell you we're not that bad). Granted, the Towson loss was unacceptable considering we were up by 14 in the 4th Qtr.

If I had to place a bet right now, Liberty would be my auto-bid choice from the Big South. However, I think you will find out that CCU is better than you're giving us credit for being. You may be surprised come November.

[ToTheLeft]

TTL, don't write Coastal off just yet. We get your Flames & SB, the two teams that have the BSC in the "palm of their hands," at home this year. We're better than our 1-3 record indicates (ask some GA Southern fans - they'll tell you we're not that bad). Granted, the Towson loss was unacceptable considering we were up by 14 in the 4th Qtr.

If I had to place a bet right now, Liberty would be my auto-bid choice from the Big South. However, I think you will find out that CCU is better than you're giving us credit for being. You may be surprised come November.

I'm all for CCU being good, it helps the BSC in general. But a loss to Towson doesn't help. ;-)

[zilla]

I know what you're saying. The majority of Coastal's fan base was in "panic mode" after the Towson loss.

However, I've been surprisingly pleased with the last two weeks (even the GSU game, although we came up short). We're making strides.

[ToTheLeft]

I know what you're saying. The majority of Coastal's fan base was in "panic mode" after the Towson loss.

However, I've been surprisingly pleased with the last two weeks (even the GSU game, although we came up short). We're making strides.

Good. MacDowell is an experienced kid with some talent, and if the defense gets better you could do some things for sure.

[Anovafan]

Nova isn't the #1 team in the country now, and won't be the #1 seed this year. Too many injuries so far. The injury report from yesterday looked like a MASH unit. Nova only has 5 OL left, and 2 of them are playing hurt. Whitney is banged up, Szczur and Babbaro both have ankle sprains, DL is thin, two starting DBs are banged up. Nova dodged the injury bug last year but it is coming back in spades this year. I hope Nova can get healthy at some point and make the playoffs at 8-3, but if one or two more players go down, they won't even make the dance.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

So last week you give Delaware a first round bye - now this week after blowing Richmond out of the water in their home, they play a first round road game and go to the #1 seed in the second round?


Gotta agree somewhat, UMass was pretty impressive vs. Michigan last week as I thought Delaware looked pretty good against Richmond this week. It'll be interesting to see how the top 4 CAA teams shake out, hopefully they all play each other for a fair assessment. At the moment, I think, in no certain order JMU, Villanova, UMass, and Delaware should be in the top 5 national teams.

It's going to be interesting in a few hours TT to see where those four CAA teams fall in the poll. Personally, I think there is a very good chance they are all in the top 12 and would not belong in the first round games. Seriously doubt if the season ended today that two of them are in the first round games. If they were then I'd be very skeptical about the NC$$ gerrymandering the pairings to save travel money. That's what they were accused of in the past when all teams were allegedly seeded 1-16.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Nova isn't the #1 team in the country now, and won't be the #1 seed this year. Too many injuries so far. The injury report from yesterday looked like a MASH unit. Nova only has 5 OL left, and 2 of them are playing hurt. Whitney is banged up, Szczur and Babbaro both have ankle sprains, DL is thin, two starting DBs are banged up. Nova dodged the injury bug last year but it is coming back in spades this year. I hope Nova can get healthy at some point and make the playoffs at 8-3, but if one or two more players go down, they won't even make the dance.

That must mean that you have true freshmen in the two deep on the OL? If you truly only have five OL left that means you have zero backups/subs. You better be teaching some TEs or DLs how to be play OL. Or have some new offense that doesn't require five on the OL (LT, LG, C, RG, RT). Going into week five that is not a good thing. But why do I think this is some Talley style smoke bowling?????? xsmiley_wix :) :)

[Anovafan]

Our current backup plan is to put our starting NG at center since he played it in high school if one of the OL went down and play both ways. Our starting TE is out as well, so that is not an option. There are a couple journey-men OL that have never played a snap, but nobody else. This team is very thin. Penn exploited the two freshman DEs and ran right at them all game. While talented, neither of them would be starting but for injuries in the Temple game.

[Walkon79]

Kudos to the CCU and GSU picks last week. They are both look better after week 4.

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State - yeah, I'd say that's the best pick for now. Though Northern Arizona could also take it.

Big South: Coastal Carolina - CCU will get better as the season goes on and will be ready for Gardner-Webb and Libery late season. I think they'll get the inagural Big South autobid

Colonial: Delaware - a good offense plus one of the best defenses in the FCS (#1 in scoring defense now against some pretty good teams) means the hens are for real. Might be the best team in the FCS

MEAC: South Carolina State - could be the most uncontested conference champ of this year. Who's playing for second?

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa - Might be the first time in a while that the CAA doesn't have the most exciting conference race. YSU, UNI, WIU, and ISU could all win it. UNI has a stout defense (held the Moses Machine in check) and the offense will get better and give them the title.

Northeast: Robert Morris - Hard to argue against that.

Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State - Don't think they are a top 10 in the FCS, but they are the best in the OVC as far as I'm concerned

Patriot: Georgetown - A very nice turnaround from last year, especially on offense. GSU and G-town can be the comeback kids of the FCS for 2010.

SoCon: Appalachian State - GSU and Furman can win the conference, but App. State is still the best pick. Will probably have to wait for GSU-FU, GSU-ASU, and ASU-FU games to know for sure. Feels like old times in the SoCon.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin - Probably the best SLC team since at latest 2005 (that Texas State semifinal team)

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana - isn't looking real great for the Griz right now, but they'll claw and tooth their way back into the playoffs. Mark it down

Colonial: Villanova, JMU, UMass - the CAA gets four in. UNH and Richmond and W&M possibly not being as good as expected keep the CAA from knocking too many of themselves out of contention.

Big South: Liberty - Flames finish with at least 8 wins and with an FBS win I think they'll be the last team in

Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, Illinois State - and YSU is one of the first ones out

Southern: Georgia Southern, Furman - as with the CAA, Wofford and Elon being somewhat down makes more room at the top. The Big 3 go into the playoffs together for the first time since 2005.

Southland: Texas State - whoever is second behind SFA will get this AL bid

SEEDS
1. Delaware
2. Appalachian State
3. Stephen F. Austin
4. Villanova

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Georgetown @ Jacksonville State
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Liberty @ Texas State
Coastal Carolina @ UMass

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Jacksonville State winner @ #1 Delaware
Georgia Southern @ James Madison

Liberty/Texas State winner @ #4 Villanova
Western Illinois @ Montana

Coastal Carolina/UMass winner @ #2 Appalachian State
Furman @ Illinois State

Robert Morris/South Carolina State winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Northern Iowa @ Montana State

I know what you're thinking - "OMG, WIU has to go play the Griz in Missoula?" But that's the nature of the playoff format we've had since 2001.

For the first time all year someone picked a BSC school as an at-large. Just the wrong one. If Taiwan Jones is healthy, the Eags may run the table from here on out.

[caribbeanhen]

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Georgetown/Delaware winner @ #1 Villanova

I would hope Nova and Delaware are paired on opposite sides of the bracket potentially setting up a true NC game

Nova vs Delaware works for me

Only 4 teams have a legit shot at this,
1 - ASU
2- W&M
3- NOVA
4 - UD

all the rest are spectators with the exception of UNH but the only make the playoffs every year

[emilimo701]

Nova vs Delaware works for me

Only 4 teams have a legit shot at this,
1 - ASU
2- W&M
3- NOVA
4 - UD

all the rest are spectators with the exception of UNH but the only make the playoffs every year

Guy: are you lost?