FCS teams a growing threat to FBS opponents

[bonarae]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703556604575501740109812272.html


Not really. FCS upsets over FBS teams aren't on the rise. They're happening at the same rate that they have for the past 15 years. The big boys' victory margin isn't narrowing either.

This, of course, is as it should be. FBS teams, by virtue of their significantly larger followings and greater visibility, hold massive advantages over FCS schools. This is reflected in their head-to-head results, which have not deviated this year from past seasons:

FBS performance vs. FCS schools

Year Win% Record Differential
1996 .851 40-7 15.1
1997 .857 30-5 20.8
1998 .872 41-6 21.8
1999 .865 45-7 22.9
2000 .709 39-16 19.7
2001 .860 49-8 21.3
2002 .877 57-8 24.8
2003 .859 61-10 23.6
2004 .893 50-6 21.5
2005 .963 52-2 25.4
2006 .910 71-7 26.7
2007 .886 70-9 25.9
2008 .977 85-2 28.9
2009 .947 89-5 29.1
2010 .913 63-6 27.4
Total .890 842-104 24.4
Source: Stats Inc.

But there are certain schools and scheduling scenarios that name teams should be wary of. Basically, if you're a fan of a major school, the biggest threats to the 40-7 breather you're expecting are the Colonial Athletic Association and your own athletic director's foolishness.

[JohnStOnge]

A 0.11 probability is not what I'd call "miniscule." Relatively small? Yes. Miniscule? No.

Another thing is that I think that over time the proportion of games against BCS level schools has increased. That has an influence on the overall FBS loss rate to FCS schools.

[aust42]

A 0.11 probability is not what I'd call "miniscule." Relatively small? Yes. Miniscule? No.

Another thing is that I think that over time the proportion of games against BCS level schools has increased. That has an influence on the overall FBS loss rate to FCS schools.

When the 12 game season was implemented for 1A teams many more 1A teams started scheduling 1AA teams since they count towards bowl eligibility. Now we have a lot of 1A schools that never would play a 1AA team scheduling them each year. Problem is for 1AA, we have the 1AA teams that are not even competetive in their own league, playing the likes of Miami, Florida, Oklahoma, etc. for the big paychecks. I wish the Montana's, Delaware's, etc. of 1AA would schedule 1A teams each year. If they did we would see more big wins like JMU, and Appy State every now and then.

[appfan2008]

anybody have the caa winning percentage over the last five years against fbs schools... i would imagine it is tops in fcs and probably around 25-30%

[aust42]

anybody have the caa winning percentage over the last five years against fbs schools... i would imagine it is tops in fcs and probably around 25-30%

CAA record vs 1A teams is 10 wins & 34 losses dating from the 2006 season to date. 29% winning percentage.

[JMUNJ08]

anybody have the caa winning percentage over the last five years against fbs schools... i would imagine it is tops in fcs and probably around 25-30%


CAA record vs 1A teams is 10 wins & 34 losses dating from the 2006 season to date. 29% winning percentage.

Can I take you to Vegas? xnodxxnodxxnodx

[JMUNJ08]

1996 .851 40-7 15.1
1997 .857 30-5 20.8
1998 .872 41-6 21.8
1999 .865 45-7 22.9
2000 .709 39-16 19.7
2001 .860 49-8 21.3
2002 .877 57-8 24.8
2003 .859 61-10 23.6
2004 .893 50-6 21.5
2005 .963 52-2 25.4
2006 .910 71-7 26.7
2007 .886 70-9 25.9
2008 .977 85-2 28.9
2009 .947 89-5 29.1
2010 .913 63-6 27.4
Total .890 842-104 24.4
Source: Stats Inc.

As noted with the 12 game schedule, look at how many MORE games are played really starting in '06:
Avg 43 games '96-'98
Avg 83 games '08-'10 (and we are only 3 weeks in)

Teams have to do this so they can mediocre, go 6-6, and get a decent payday to the Chlorox Bowl. Arizona St. played two this year from FCS and they are a BCS conference team!

And I do agree with other posters the numbers do lie a bit. There are a lot more big teams scheduling MEAC/OVC/SWAC type schools as most FCS teams just play 1 FBS oppennent and racking up HUGE wins. While the FCS power conferences are giving the big guys too much of a game too often. While JMU/App St. may still find teams to get their paydays, the types of teams they can schedule from FBS are dwindling because no one wants to pay for a loss...

[URMite]

CAA record vs 1A teams is 10 wins & 34 losses dating from the 2006 season to date. 29% winning percentage.

Isn't 10-34 22.727%? Unless they were 10 out of 34...xchinscratchx

[URMite]

If the CAA is 10-34 22.727%, does that make everyone else 19-344 5.234%? xchinscratchx

[Cocky]

K-State has already pull a agreed to deal away from us.
Didn't Montana play Iowa a few years ago? Delaware and Montana can get game it is just they make too much money playing at home. Why would a FBS school pay Montana, Delaware or any others 750,000 to 800,000 when other schools will play for 400,000 or so? The winning percentage wouldn't change much if any if these schools were playing every year. It is still a upset when you win against a BCS school. Now if the top level was playing the MAC, WAC, CUSA, MWC and SBC schools of the world the percentage would change