Week 2: Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

Another stab at it...

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Duquesne
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: UMass, Villanova, Delaware
Great West: Cal Poly
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Missouri State, North Dakota State
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: Central Arkansas

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State
Duquesne @ Lehigh
Missouri State @ Cal Poly
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Liberty/South Carolina State winner @ #1 James Madison
Furman @ Villanova

Lehigh/Duquesne winner @ #4 Appalachian State
Elon @ Delaware

Central Arkansas/Jacksonville State winner @ #2 Montana
North Dakota State @ Stephen F. Austin

Missouri State/Cal Poly winner @ #3 Northern Iowa
UMass @ South Dakota State


PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)

[NHwildEcat]

The CAA is too deep...I think they need to expand the playoffs to 24!

[NHwildEcat]

UNH would still be in over JMU though...we were in the week 1 prognostications and both teams played out of FCS so that shouldn't change IMO.

[UNH Fanboi]

4 MVFC teams and SIU isn't one of them? NDSU and SDSU didn't look great yesterday.

[4th and What?]

UNH would still be in over JMU though...we were in the week 1 prognostications and both teams played out of FCS so that shouldn't change IMO.


FBS games certainly influence at-large bids and ranking. My question would be why does Villanova get the CAA autobid if JMU is the #1 seed? By producing this, are you projecting that Nova would win the conference matchup against JMU and others to win the autobid, or are you using CAA's current tie-breaking rules? If you are using the CAA rules, wouldn't UMass have the autobid right now with a 1-0 conference record?

[tribe_pride]

UNH would still be in over JMU though...we were in the week 1 prognostications and both teams played out of FCS so that shouldn't change IMO.

Do you really think that a win over an FBS ranked team does not drastically improve a team's playoff chances? A loss may not hurt but a win helps big time. Not saying UNH should be out but if playoffs were today, JMU is in.

[R3TRO]

Kind of hard to believe that UNH is out of the playoff hunt after losing to Pitt. But, following this logic, I guess UMass will be out next week and UNH will be back in.

[JSU02]

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State

No 1st week bye????? Really?????

[TexasTerror]

4 MVFC teams and SIU isn't one of them? NDSU and SDSU didn't look great yesterday.

By virtue of the fact that they have NINE games remaining and ZERO Division I wins. Road games - NDSU, Missouri State. Very difficult. Is SIU going to get to seven wins? I do not think they win the MVFC at this point.


No 1st week bye????? Really?????

OVC has a weak track record and the teams falling by the wayside at this point to the SLC is really hurting the league. Jax State may need some style points here - seriously. One loss in OVC play may actually drop Jax State more than it typically would.


Kind of hard to believe that UNH is out of the playoff hunt after losing to Pitt. But, following this logic, I guess UMass will be out next week and UNH will be back in.

I'm taking a stab at it. You can do so if you'd like! I'm just trying to generate conversation. At this point in the year, it is much too difficult to really plot these things out.


FBS games certainly influence at-large bids and ranking. My question would be why does Villanova get the CAA autobid if JMU is the #1 seed? By producing this, are you projecting that Nova would win the conference matchup against JMU and others to win the autobid, or are you using CAA's current tie-breaking rules? If you are using the CAA rules, wouldn't UMass have the autobid right now with a 1-0 conference record?

Fixed! I was changing around my champions after going through seeding and slipped up!

[th0m]

JMU goes from not even being an at-large candidate in last week's prognostication to #1 seed this week? Where did Richmond and UNH go? Is the CAA deserving of "only" 4 bids? Which is the same as the MVC... Tough to make accurate claims but those stand out to me :)

[4th and What?]

Well, each teams resume did just double over the course of the last week......if at the end of the season JMU was undefeated and half of their wins were against top 25 BCS teams, I would expect they would be the #1 seed :)

I still think this should go by the rules of the conferences and minimize opinion as much as possible, which would mean UMass would have the autobid as they are the only team with a conference win so far.

[th0m]

True but I think in these early stages you have to factor in momentum and potential, neither of which was affected (of UR and UNH) by JMU's win.

[Dane96]

TT, not criticizing just asking a question:

Why move Dukes in and Albany out. That said, this is the Dukes squad that I have been expecting since they joined the league...and hoping for to build the strength of the NEC. I think they are the surprise team of the NEC and their growth, along with that of Bryant, legitimately makes the NEC a 5 deep league...with RMU (if they get their **** together) right up there to give it 6 toughies (Albany, CCSU, MONMOUTH, DUKES, BRYANT, RMU).

That said, the Dukes haven't played anyone close to the schedule Albany has...and though we got smoked yesterday, that has no bearing on how Albany will play IN THE LEAGUE. I would think that right now the game yesterday would have no bearing on in league.

That said, it all doesn't matter in week 2. Was just curious.

[rcny46]

Kind of hard to believe that UNH is out of the playoff hunt after losing to Pitt. But, following this logic, I guess UMass will be out next week and UNH will be back in.


Not to worry,R3TRO.UNH is going to be just fine,and I think as the season progresses,they will prove to be one of the better teams in the CAA.

[NHwildEcat]

Do you really think that a win over an FBS ranked team does not drastically improve a team's playoff chances? A loss may not hurt but a win helps big time. Not saying UNH should be out but if playoffs were today, JMU is in.

Of course a big win over an FBS helps. What I am saying is that you need 7 wins (correct me if I am wrong) to be eligible for the FCS playoffs. Therefore right now as far as wins go in regards to that requirement, UNH and JMU are still even. With them being even, last week UNH was in the playoffs picture but now they are not when the situation has not really changed. That is just how I interpret the qualifications. If I am wrong then oh well! HAHA

Anyways we will find out next month who is better between UNH & JMU...

[Sader87]

We'll pass as a league this year...thanks...see ya' in 2011.

[Col Hogan]

I love watching people getting their panties all up in a wedgie over these "prognostications"...

They are about as accurate as the long range weather forecast...which means it's all guess work...

[crusader11]

Why Lehigh?

[CopperCat]

One team out of the Big Sky. Wow.

[NHwildEcat]

I love watching people getting their panties all up in a wedgie over these "prognostications"...

They are about as accurate as the long range weather forecast...which means it's all guess work...

It is all for fun...if you don't like it and think its wasteful then why read and post?

[Col Hogan]

It is all for fun...if you don't like it and think its wasteful then why read and post?

Did I not say "I love...."

It's entertaining....funny and entertaining...

[TexasTerror]

Why move Dukes in and Albany out. That said, this is the Dukes squad that I have been expecting since they joined the league...and hoping for to build the strength of the NEC. I think they are the surprise team of the NEC and their growth, along with that of Bryant, legitimately makes the NEC a 5 deep league...with RMU (if they get their **** together) right up there to give it 6 toughies (Albany, CCSU, MONMOUTH, DUKES, BRYANT, RMU).

That said, the Dukes haven't played anyone close to the schedule Albany has...and though we got smoked yesterday, that has no bearing on how Albany will play IN THE LEAGUE. I would think that right now the game yesterday would have no bearing on in league.

Eh, they are 2-0. No one in the NEC has really done anything impressive. A few teams, you could just throw out the door. Albany is 0-2 on the season and while Duquesne is not going to be in the mix (more than likely) when the AQ is determined - let's give'em some love!


Why Lehigh?

Georgetown beat Lafayette and Davidson, but just did not feel they were the best team in the league. No teams truly stuck out and Lehigh's loss was at least to a strong squad with a relatively convincing win to go along with it - compared to some close calls. It's week two afterall...


One team out of the Big Sky. Wow.

The entire Big Sky is 1-1. Weber State barely escaped NoCo and still has Tx Tech left. Did not feel good about them. Montana State has no Div I wins, same for NAU, EWU, Sacramento State. Should I've awarded Montana State for "style points"? Portland State has two FBS games and will have to make a run late (not early)

[rufus]

No 1st week bye????? Really?????

If JSU runs the table, it will have one quality win. Granted, it's a very high quality win. Even if they go undefeated, I think JSU will struggle to get a top 4 seed. If they lose one, there's no chance.

It might seem unfair, but JSU essentially gets to walk into the playoffs after its BCS game. A school like JMU still has to play seven top 20 FCS teams, and doesn't even get to play URI this year because of the CAA's unbalanced schedule.

I think you are more likely to see two CAA schools get buys than JSU. The win over Ole Miss was fantastic, but JSU essentially has 9 buy weeks between now and the playoffs.

[JSU02]

If you don't think Chattanooga was a quality win, then you haven't seen them play...

If we are the only 11-0 team, I don't see how we could not get a seed. Especially with a win over a SEC school. I agree our schedule isn't the toughest though.

[rufus]

Chattanooga may turn out to be very good, but they're off to an 0-2 start against two good FCS programs. I think it's too early to call it a quality win, based on this year's performance and other recent performance, but that could clearly change before the playoffs.

[Go...gate]

As of today, the PL candidate is, and should be, undefeated Georgetown. God bless em!

[TexasTerror]

If we are the only 11-0 team, I don't see how we could not get a seed. Especially with a win over a SEC school. I agree our schedule isn't the toughest though.

11-0. A seed.
10-1. You fall significantly.
9-2. The top team in the first round.

OVC is hurting. The losses by EIU (at home to UCA) and Tenn-Martin (on the road to starting QB-less SLU) did not help.

[caribbeanhen]

Another stab at it...

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: James Madison
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Duquesne
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: UMass, Villanova, Delaware
Great West: Cal Poly
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Missouri State, North Dakota State
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: Central Arkansas

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State
Duquesne @ Lehigh
Missouri State @ Cal Poly
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Liberty/South Carolina State winner @ #1 James Madison
Furman @ Villanova

Lehigh/Duquesne winner @ #4 Appalachian State
Elon @ Delaware

Central Arkansas/Jacksonville State winner @ #2 Montana
North Dakota State @ Stephen F. Austin

Missouri State/Cal Poly winner @ #3 Northern Iowa
UMass @ South Dakota State


PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)

scratch any 2 Mizzu valley teams and add UNH and Da spidahs

[ToTheLeft]

Something to remember, CAA Flunkies.

You only have 10 teams now. Assuming 7 is the magic number, that means you need 6 teams to win at least 4 games in conference. However, most will need 5 wins (UD because of the WC game, Maine/UNH/Nova/Richmond for OOC losses, probably UMass for an OOC loss to Michigan, too.) You can't expect to get 6 teams with 5 wins. Even if EVERYONE beat their combo URI/Towson/Maine (assuming every team plays at least two of them. I'm not sure about the schedules), they still need to get 2 or 3 wins against the rest of the league. If they get more than 2 or 3, that eliminates someone else. One of the only ways the CAA gets 6 teams in is a final standings like this...

1. 7-1
2. 5-3
5-3
5-3
5-3
5-3
7. 4-4
8. 2-6
9. 1-9
10. 1-9

[UNH Fanboi]

Something to remember, CAA Flunkies.

You only have 10 teams now. Assuming 7 is the magic number, that means you need 6 teams to win at least 4 games in conference. However, most will need 5 wins (UD because of the WC game, Maine/UNH/Nova/Richmond for OOC losses, probably UMass for an OOC loss to Michigan, too.) You can't expect to get 6 teams with 5 wins. Even if EVERYONE beat their combo URI/Towson/Maine (assuming every team plays at least two of them. I'm not sure about the schedules), they still need to get 2 or 3 wins against the rest of the league. If they get more than 2 or 3, that eliminates someone else. One of the only ways the CAA gets 6 teams in is a final standings like this...

1. 7-1
2. 5-3
5-3
5-3
5-3
5-3
7. 4-4
8. 2-6
9. 1-9
10. 1-9

You're right. The CAA will most likely get only 4 teams in. Maaaybe 5 if the wins get divided just right, but I wouldn't count on that. There are gonna be some pretty **** good 6-5 teams that get left out of the playoffs.

[ToTheLeft]

I agree. And if there are no good 7 win teams left for the 10th spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 6-5 CAA team get a serious look.

[MSUDuo]

Just curious, why the love for Missouri State this week?

[TexasTerror]

scratch any 2 Mizzu valley teams and add UNH and Da spidahs

The math is not favorable. ToTheLeft did a great job explaining it...

Schedule some more Div I games instead of non-Div I games (I'm looking at you Delaware!) and perhaps it'd be easier...

[tribefan40]

1. 7-1
2. 5-3
5-3
5-3
5-3
5-3
7. 4-4
8. 2-6
9. 1-9
10. 1-9

With the improved play of JMU and UD, this could come close to happening.

On a side note, I wish we played in the Big Sky. That way we could lose an early season fcs game to an unranked team, and still get a playoff seed. xbawlingx

[GoGSU]

Elon doesn't make it in and Georgia Southern will be in it's place............you heard it here 1st xnodx

[JMUNJ08]

Of course a big win over an FBS helps. What I am saying is that you need 7 wins (correct me if I am wrong) to be eligible for the FCS playoffs. Therefore right now as far as wins go in regards to that requirement, UNH and JMU are still even. With them being even, last week UNH was in the playoffs picture but now they are not when the situation has not really changed. That is just how I interpret the qualifications. If I am wrong then oh well! HAHA

Anyways we will find out next month who is better between UNH & JMU...

We have 2 wins that count. Morehead is a FCS team from the Pioneer. Its no better than West Chester but counts none the less xhurrayx

[ElonFirefighter]

Elon doesn't make it in and Georgia Southern will be in it's place............you heard it here 1st xnodx

did some one say somethingxconfusedxxscanxxrulesxxviolinx

[caribbeanhen]

I agree. And if there are no good 7 win teams left for the 10th spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 6-5 CAA team get a serious look.

Yes, but if the 6-5 CAA team was included - they would do some playoff damage:D

[caribbeanhen]

The math is not favorable. ToTheLeft did a great job explaining it...

Schedule some more Div I games instead of non-Div I games (I'm looking at you Delaware!) and perhaps it'd be easier...

the math is the problem, We all know what would happen if the 6-5 CAA team made the playoffs -
The CAA is a brutal schedule - telling Delaware to play more Div 1 games is like telling an SEC team to schedule a few NFL games

[Umpire]

I say a 4th SoCon team could make it. A 7-4 (5-3 conference) Furman or Georgia Southern would have seven DI wins (Elon wouldn't)

[UNIFanSince1983]

After the first two weeks the Valley looks like it may not be as strong as it looked to be prior to the season. SDSU does not even compete against the big time FCS opponent. Illinois State squeaked by a D2 and then lost to an FBS badly. It honestly looks like we may only get 2 in at best, and I do not even know who those two would be. I mean we have a chance, but we have a daunting schedule. SIU will be tough, and I wouldn't count the Jacks out yet, but our conference has not been as impressive as I thought it should be.

[TexasTerror]

The latest from our 'boy' at the Sports Network...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

James Madison v William & Mary? Six teams from the CAA?!!? Three from the Big Sky?!?!?

[Walkon79]

The entire Big Sky is 1-1. Weber State barely escaped NoCo and still has Tx Tech left. Did not feel good about them. Montana State has no Div I wins, same for NAU, EWU, Sacramento State. Should I've awarded Montana State for "style points"? Portland State has two FBS games and will have to make a run late (not early)[/QUOTE]

There's still four BSC teams in the top 25. At least one of them will challenge for the conference title and will get an at large, and probably two.

[caribbeanhen]

The latest from our 'boy' at the Sports Network...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

James Madison v William & Mary? Six teams from the CAA?!!? Three from the Big Sky?!?!?

ya seexnodx

[jstclmet]

Here's my roll of the dice;

AUTO's:
BSC: Montana
BSo.: Liberty
CAA: Nova
MEAC: SCST
MVC: SIU
NEC: Albany
OVC: Jacksonville St.
PL: Colgate
SOCON: ASU
SLC: SFA

AL's
BSC: Montana St.
CAA: UNH, JMU, UD, UMass
GW: Cal Poly
MVC: UNI
SOCON: Elon
SLC: C.Ark, McNeese

Opening Round Games:
Albany @ Colgate
Montana St @ C. Arkansas
Cal Poly @ McNeese
Liberty @ SCST

Second Round:
Albany/Colgate Winner @ #1 Nova
J. State @ UMass
SFA @ #5 SIU
Montana St/C. Ark Winner @ #4 UNH
Cal Poly/McNeese Winner @ #3 Montana
UNI @ Delaware
JMU @ Elon
Liberty/SCST Winner @ #2 ASU

Have at it.

[TexasTerror]

There's still four BSC teams in the top 25. At least one of them will challenge for the conference title and will get an at large, and probably two.

Big Sky will cap out at two teams. Unfortunately, the Big Sky of all the AQ conferences deals more with the lack of Div I FCS schools in the area than any other conference. I know the Grizwalds may not like it, but playing the most conference games may not be a bad thing. Too many FBS and sub-Div I games because there's no one in the vicinity to play.

[caribbeanhen]

Here's my roll of the dice;

AUTO's:
BSC: Montana
BSo.: Liberty
CAA: Nova
MEAC: SCST
MVC: SIU
NEC: Albany
OVC: Jacksonville St.
PL: Colgate
SOCON: ASU
SLC: SFA

AL's
BSC: Montana St.
CAA: UNH, JMU, UD, UMass
GW: Cal Poly
MVC: UNI
SOCON: Elon
SLC: C.Ark, McNeese

Opening Round Games:
Albany @ Colgate
Montana St @ C. Arkansas
Cal Poly @ McNeese
Liberty @ SCST

Second Round:
Albany/Colgate Winner @ #1 Nova
J. State @ UMass
SFA @ #5 SIU
Montana St/C. Ark Winner @ #4 UNH
Cal Poly/McNeese Winner @ #3 Montana
UNI @ Delaware
JMU @ Elon
Liberty/SCST Winner @ #2 ASU

Have at it.

looks good from here, especially since your over Maine

[GaSouthern]

My dream would be for GSU to make the playoffs and upset CCSU, UNH, TxSt, and then beat appy for the 7th flag.

Too bad we prob won't have a real shot at the playoffs this season.

[jstclmet]

looks good from here, especially since your over Maine

All of these matchups are Television worthy. Hard to find a bad game in the bunch. Weather at that time of year might affect attendance though.

[Houndawg]

After the first two weeks the Valley looks like it may not be as strong as it looked to be prior to the season. SDSU does not even compete against the big time FCS opponent. Illinois State squeaked by a D2 and then lost to an FBS badly. It honestly looks like we may only get 2 in at best, and I do not even know who those two would be. I mean we have a chance, but we have a daunting schedule. SIU will be tough, and I wouldn't count the Jacks out yet, but our conference has not been as impressive as I thought it should be.

True dat. Although I think the jury is still somewhat out since the MVC hasn't played anyone but Delaware that can be used as an indicator, and the Jacks were down two TDs before they got up to game speed. UNI looks the best so far but the Bison aren't much of a benchmark either. SIU got trounced by a team that isn't half as bad as the word on the street. SIU's problem right now is that they have ten games that count and they're 0-1 in them so far with a five week stretch of SEMO, @YSU, @ISU, UNI, SDSU before hte bye week, and two All-Americans out with bad ankles.

[caribbeanhen]

All of these matchups are Television worthy. Hard to find a bad game in the bunch. Weather at that time of year might affect attendance though.

a closer look reveals you have Colgate in - xchinscratchx

I'd take Maine over Colgate

[jstclmet]

a closer look reveals you have Colgate in - xchinscratchx

I'd take Maine over Colgate

Maine isn't in the PL......YET.......someone from the PL has to get in...........

[caribbeanhen]

Maine isn't in the PL......YET.......someone from the PL has to get in...........

I thought Colgate would make a better showing down at Furman, only 2 teams in from the SOCO?

[AxeEmJacks]

The latest from our 'boy' at the Sports Network...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

James Madison v William & Mary? Six teams from the CAA?!!? Three from the Big Sky?!?!?


No, not Montana... Anything but Montana again.