Week 1: Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

Probably over-reacted to some of the results of the opening weekend (see NDSU's seed). We'll see... almost left McNeese State out and could in the week's ahead, just need to see what Southeastern's QB situation is, if Florida A&M and Eastern Illinois can bounce back from FBS loss and if we can find another CAA team....

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: UMass, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Furman @ Liberty
South Carolina State @ Richmond
Albany @ Lafayette
Elon @ Southern Illinois

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Furman/Liberty winner @ #1 Montana
Northern Iowa @ Stephen F Austin

Elon/Southern Illinois winner @ #4 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ Jacksonville State

Richmond/South Carolina State winner @ #3 North Dakota State
Eastern Washington @ McNeese State

Albany/Lafayette winner @ #2 Villanova
UMass @ Appalachian State

BUBBLE
Southeastern Louisiana, Eastern Illinois, Florida A&M, William & Mary, Stony Brook

[Gil Dobie]

I wouldn't put NDSU that far up the ladder yet, still need to have success in the conference schedule. Missouri St deserves a look. U Mass from the CAA also might be in there after a nice win this weekend. Just some thoughts after the first week.

[Panthers_Blue]

Don't count EIU out just yet.

[DOME]

Doubt UNI would have their first playoff game against SFA as they're coming to Cedar Falls week three. Also when UNI beats NDSU this coming weekend we'll swap places ;)

[WrenFGun]

I'd have Delaware in over McNeese, unless I'm missing something. 3 point win over Lamar? Meh.

[TexasTerror]

Don't count EIU out just yet.

A loss this week and Eastern Illinois is on the ropes. It's hard to make sense of an FBS game, especially when it is a bit out of control.


I wouldn't put NDSU that far up the ladder yet, still need to have success in the conference schedule. Missouri St deserves a look. U Mass from the CAA also might be in there after a nice win this weekend. Just some thoughts after the first week.

The Missouri State win was baffling...can we expect them to play that way for the next 11 weeks? UMass is in the playoffs... and yep, over-reacted to NDSU, but hey - it's week one!


I'd have Delaware in over McNeese, unless I'm missing something. 3 point win over Lamar? Meh.

Lamar had no video on them heading in and it was their Super Bowl. Lamar had two years of prep for this one game and McNeese apparently went very vanilla with their offense. Hard to make much sense of it just yet...

[MSUBear42]

The Missouri State win was baffling...can we expect them to play that way for the next 11 weeks?


Not really baffling when you look at it. MSU returned 17 starters from last years 6-5 team and added a bunch of depth at WR and actually has a running game this year (We played with our 3rd and 4th teamers most of last year).

[UNH Fanboi]

I'd have Delaware in over McNeese, unless I'm missing something. 3 point win over Lamar? Meh.

It's going to be tough for the CAA to get 5 teams in this year, even with the expanded field. Delaware especially doesn't have much room for error because of their Div II game.

[Dane96]

First, I would be ecstatic if Albany got the first ever NEC Auto-Bid.

Second, if we got that matchup...I would be very happy.

[MplsBison]

I wouldn't put NDSU that far up the ladder yet, still need to have success in the conference schedule. Missouri St deserves a look. U Mass from the CAA also might be in there after a nice win this weekend. Just some thoughts after the first week.

I swear almost every NDSU fan on this board, plus Bohl and the whole team are so scared for people to see the team for what it really is: a championship contender.

Don't be scared of success. For crying out loud.

[jmufan999]

First, I would be ecstatic if Albany got the first ever NEC Auto-Bid.

Second, if we got that matchup...I would be very happy.

hats off to beating maine. you essentially got 7 turnovers (i personally call failed 4th down conversions turnovers because they ARE turnovers. on downs.), that's really, really impressive. i really don't know anything about either team to be honest, but i respect the CAA and Maine has made the playoffs recently. congrats and good luck to you from here on out, i'll be rooting for you. i also love that you put a loss in their loss column!!!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

MVFC won't get 4 in, more likely MVFC and Big Sky get 3 each.

[EmeryZach]

Nice, we made into TT's playoff prognostications!! I always get excited when that happens. Thanks TT.

[TexasTerror]

Nice, we made into TT's playoff prognostications!! I always get excited when that happens. Thanks TT.

No problem. Deserving of the spot... this week! ;)

[SpidersSportsEditor]

I still think Bill and Mary is a playoff team. Not a good way to start, but on the road at UMass isn't a gimme, obviously.

[MSUBear42]

MVFC won't get 4 in, more likely MVFC and Big Sky get 3 each.

Care to give a reason?

The MVFC is STACKED this year.

[rumple]

I dont think Umass can make it with Havens, hes just not very good.

[SalukiJim]

Care to give a reason?

The MVFC is STACKED this year.

I would think it has to do with so many other conferences not having had an auto-bid in the past. It will be hard to get 4 in, but there's always the CAA ;)

[Houndawg]

I swear almost every NDSU fan on this board, plus Bohl and the whole team are so scared for people to see the team for what it really is: a championship contender.

Don't be scared of success. For crying out loud.

They're being realistic, dude. There is a lot of football left; last year at this time UNI was being hailed as a juggernaut after the Iowa game. Nobody saw anybody beating them, they were huge, they were fast, they should have won, etc., etc..........

[PantherRob82]

I swear almost every NDSU fan on this board, plus Bohl and the whole team are so scared for people to see the team for what it really is: a championship contender.

Don't be scared of success. For crying out loud.

Is it possible that maybe they all know something you don't?

A win is a win, especially over an FBS squad, but most FCS fans I've talked to would reason that UNI is probably better than Kansas as well. So the next game says a lot more than the one yesterday.

I don't want to downplay the Bison win at all. I just think that it's good to find the middle point between NDSU National Champs and NDSU Bottom Feeder at this point. Cautious optimism maybe?

Unfortunately that's all I can have because we haven't played a down yet.

[bluehenbillk]

TT- you seem like a pretty down to earth guy, that's why I'm shocked someone associated with Richmond has photos of you in a compromising position.

Seriously, you'll look back in a few weeks and say to yourself, "man why couldn't I see they were over-rated".

[lionsrking2]

almost left McNeese State out and could in the week's ahead, just need to see what Southeastern's QB situation is,

Beatty will be fine...has a sprained MCL...will likely miss this week's game with UTM and will play it by ear after that, but should be ready to go by the start of conference play at the latest...we may look a little different in the interim, but we feel good about what we have backing him up.

[TexasTerror]

Beatty will be fine...has a sprained MCL...will likely miss this week's game with UTM and will play it by ear after that, but should be ready to go by the start of conference play at the latest...we may look a little different in the interim, but we feel good about what we have backing him up.

I'll have to go with Tennesee-Martin per the SLC predictions thread. This could impact SLU's ability at an at-large, which was already in question due to two FBS games (let's be honest - you need a split at the very least there with your slate) and the Lions will have to focus on the SLC prize.

[ngineer]

Lafayette in the PL?? Granted, with my brown colored glasses I would normally have trouble with that, but even with my homerist view of things, one would have to go with Colgate or Holy Cross as the favorite based upon what they have returning. 'pards can certainly challenge, but they have a lot of new faces in new places and until they show their spots, picking them, now, without a game under their fur is odd.

[WrenFGun]

I didn't see much from W&M that indicated playoff contender to me in week one, but again, it's just week one. The QB's arm strength was IMO, pretty underwhelming, though he was a good scrambler. I agree with the folks that think Havens isn't good enough to lead the team to the playoffs as well.

Still think UD is at least honorable mention here and I'd have them over McNeese for sure. I don't care who it is, you cannot win by 3 over a team in it's first game in quite some time and expect that it is normal to do that.

[tribefan40]

So one loss and we go from top-5 team to bubble hopeful? Not quite sure I'm ready to toss out the season just yet......

[TexasTerror]

So one loss and we go from top-5 team to bubble hopeful? Not quite sure I'm ready to toss out the season just yet......

Changes week to week... W&M can be back in this thing easily. It does not take much! The first few weeks will see tons of changes until several teams are eliminated.

[caribbeanhen]

Delaware not even a Bubble team? just being in the CAA alone should count for being on the bubble

[TexasTerror]

Delaware not even a Bubble team? just being in the CAA alone should count for being on the bubble

Road schedule is as tough as nails - Richmond, JMU, W&M and UMass. Let's at least see how you do against South Dakota State before we put you on the bubble! Throw out West Chester... can't make much of it positive or negative.

[caribbeanhen]

Road schedule is as tough as nails - Richmond, JMU, W&M and UMass. Let's at least see how you do against South Dakota State before we put you on the bubble! Throw out West Chester... can't make much of it positive or negative.

interestingly enough over on gohens they are clucking about the relatively easy schedule this year.... tough skeds come with the CAA.. agree 100 pct on your comments about West Chester and next weeks game

[Houndawg]

Road schedule is as tough as nails - Richmond, JMU, W&M and UMass. Let's at least see how you do against South Dakota State before we put you on the bubble! Throw out West Chester... can't make much of it positive or negative.

Don't throw out West Chester.

Having a tune up before SDSU comes to play their first game is a big advantage. Hens roll at home.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Care to give a reason?

The MVFC is STACKED this year.

So is the Big Sky. xcoffeex

[uofmman1122]

So is the Big Sky. xcoffeexDude, it's the Big Sky. We're never stacked. xrolleyesx

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Dude, it's the Big Sky. We're never stacked. xrolleyesx

Yep, UM, EWU, MSU, NAU, and Weber should all pack it in, no chance at making the playoffs. xlolxxlolx

[Native]

Yep, UM, EWU, MSU, NAU, and Weber should all pack it in, no chance at making the playoffs. xlolxxlolx

Not really happy about ANY loss, but Cameron Higgins looked like his old, 2008 self against BC this past weekend. Excellent decisions with few mistakes. If the Boston College game is a harbinger of the rest of his 2010 season, Cam will make another run at the Payton on the Wildcats' way to the playoffs. Unlike 2009, when he forced so many mistakes against better teams, he was cool, calm and collected all the way. The O-line gave him adequate protection against an FBS defense, and Higgins has plenty of excellent receivers and running backs, too. Vai Tafuna made some hard third down conversions on short yardage, and Bo Bolen picked up where Tom Toone left off on returns.

The Weber defense performed well against the BC second team offense and is unlikely to face any QB with better accuracy than the Eagles' David Shinskie.

[TexasTerror]

The Sports Network's stab at them...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[NHwildEcat]

The Sports Network's stab at them...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

They have 6 CAA teams in the tourney...haha I don't know about that. Plus, I am not sure we would end up with W&M in the first round, I would think that might be a game against a team not from the CAA.

[MSUBear42]

They have 6 CAA teams in the tourney...haha I don't know about that. Plus, I am not sure we would end up with W&M in the first round, I would think that might be a game against a team not from the CAA.

And only 2 MVFC??? What idiots. But, what do you expect when you see Indiana State receiving 3 votes on their poll!

[TexasTerror]

They have 6 CAA teams in the tourney...haha I don't know about that. Plus, I am not sure we would end up with W&M in the first round, I would think that might be a game against a team not from the CAA.


And only 2 MVFC??? What idiots. But, what do you expect when you see Indiana State receiving 3 votes on their poll!

The quality has gone down tremendously at the Sports Network while the quantity has gone up... has anyone noticed that? TSN is doing so much more while doing it at a very poor level.

[FCS Go!]

The Sports Network's stab at them...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

Not much for regionalization are they?

[sharkeycox]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

Probably over-reacted to some of the results of the opening weekend (see NDSU's seed). We'll see... almost left McNeese State out and could in the week's ahead, just need to see what Southeastern's QB situation is, if Florida A&M and Eastern Illinois can bounce back from FBS loss and if we can find another CAA team....

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: UMass, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Furman @ Liberty
South Carolina State @ Richmond
Albany @ Lafayette
Elon @ Southern Illinois

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Furman/Liberty winner @ #1 Montana
Northern Iowa @ Stephen F Austin

Elon/Southern Illinois winner @ #4 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ Jacksonville State

Richmond/South Carolina State winner @ #3 North Dakota State
Eastern Washington @ McNeese State

Albany/Lafayette winner @ #2 Villanova
UMass @ Appalachian State

BUBBLE
Southeastern Louisiana, Eastern Illinois, Florida A&M, William & Mary, Stony Brook

I'm not sold on my Cowboys yet.......a lot of cleaning up to do before confereence play...and if Beatty comes back for SELA, they will be the favorite in the SLC in my opinion.

[McNeese75]

SLU may win the SLC but SFA will not be in the top two.

[GoGSU]

I wouldn't count out Georgia Southern just yet... xnodx

[NDB]

Is it possible that maybe they all know something you don't?

A win is a win, especially over an FBS squad, but most FCS fans I've talked to would reason that UNI is probably better than Kansas as well.

is that right, pauline kael.

[ToTheLeft]

My stab at it...

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington, Weber State
Colonial: UMass, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, North Dakota State
Southern: Elon, Wofford
Southland: SELA

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

They have 6 CAA teams in the tourney...haha I don't know about that. Plus, I am not sure we would end up with W&M in the first round, I would think that might be a game against a team not from the CAA.

First game for both teams; therefore, they can't play in that second round. If one had played in the first round, then a different story. That's how I've read the guidelines.

And believe me Colgate would be playing Central CT -- can you say bus game!!! xnodx

[Skjellyfetti]

I like yours much better than the Sports Network ones.

However, wouldn't South Carolina State outbid Richmond?

[Thundar]

Is it possible that maybe they all know something you don't?

A win is a win, especially over an FBS squad, but most FCS fans I've talked to would reason that UNI is better than Kansas as well. So the next game says a lot more than the one yesterday.

I don't want to downplay the Bison win at all. I just think that it's good to find the middle point between NDSU National Champs and NDSU Bottom Feeder at this point. Cautious optimism maybe?

Unfortunately that's all I can have because we haven't played a down yet.

Fixed it for you

[JMUNJ08]

Still curious why JMU who is in the middle of the polls isn't at least in consideration? Although I must say there are SEVERAL teams you can throw in their right now to the Bubble.

Plus, UMass won a league game at home so they flip over JMU and Delaware from the preseason polls? I have to see more to justify that move.

And isn't it a fact UNI is ineligible for at-large bids EVER and must win the MVFC??? NDSU as the at-large then and it can work...

[Squealofthepig]

Yeah, at this stage would have to say you have to keep the Dukes in the running. Good buzz for the program and voter recognition, and the games will sort themselves out.

Also don't see an issue with six CAA teams; about the only thing that keeps them from getting more is having to get to seven DI wins while playing each other.

[Kid Dakota]

NDSU too high of a pick. The battle for the MVC is between SDSU, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa with Missouri State as the sleeper.

[CopperCat]

NDSU deserves some props, they are in the MVFC race (definitely over Missouri State).

Big Sky should get three teams in.

Overall, nobody knows enough about anybody to really say where they will finish the season.

[Gil Dobie]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: UMass, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

BUBBLE
Southeastern Louisiana, Eastern Illinois, Florida A&M, William & Mary, Stony Brook

NDSU and UNI are still in the hunt, reversed situations though. SIU and SDSU are spoilers, and WIU is a front-runner.

[TexasTerror]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: UMass, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Furman @ Liberty
South Carolina State @ Richmond
Albany @ Lafayette
Elon @ Southern Illinois

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Furman/Liberty winner @ #1 Montana
Northern Iowa @ Stephen F Austin

Elon/Southern Illinois winner @ #4 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ Jacksonville State

Richmond/South Carolina State winner @ #3 North Dakota State
Eastern Washington @ McNeese State

Albany/Lafayette winner @ #2 Villanova
UMass @ Appalachian State

BUBBLE
Southeastern Louisiana, Eastern Illinois, Florida A&M, William & Mary, Stony Brook

These weren't too, too bad.... ;)