what happens to us if the 4 mega-conferences does happen?

[godogs]

as is being reported now, it appears that there is a very real possibility that D-1 football may become 4 mega-conferences of 16 teams each. surely, that will mean a 12 game schedule for everyone but where does that leave our schools? The Citadel always has at least 1 big-money game a year vs. Clemson, so carolina, ga tech, unc, etc. but it appears that the mega-scheduling would make these games neither feasible nor attractive for the big schools -- soooo.......where does that leave D-1A? is there enough pull to demand "luxury-tax" type payments to the lower divisions as opposed to scheduling games that obviously no longer fit in the big guys scenerio? there will be more tv $$$ than anyone can spend if this scenario plays out --- does the ncaa cease to exist? do the megas form their own ruling organization? tv will be in control of all of this, so this whole discussion is both fascinating and terrifying at the same time.

thoughts?

[DFW HOYA]

is there enough pull to demand "luxury-tax" type payments to the lower divisions...?
will there will be more tv $$$ than anyone can spend if this scenario plays out --- does the ncaa cease to exist?
do the megas form their own ruling organization?


No to all three. The Big East and ACC aren't going away, and neither are the WAC, CUSA, and the Sun Belt. I could see the MWC and Big 12 geting together if the other half moves west.

[PaladinFan]

I don't think you'll see any changes with the SEC either. The conference has the highest revenue, the best teams, the biggest stadiums, and the most national exposure. Why on earth would they break that up?

I really can't even see them taking on another member either unless one of the member schools broke off and needed to be replaced. I don't see any schools doing that, as noted, because the SEC is where they make the most money.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If megaconferences do end up happening for whatever reason, the only way there's an issue with FCS if they come up with a sort-of "ten or eleven game mandate" for their members, or a requirement that they can only play FBS schools (for example, WAC, Sun Belt, or others). But as of now there's no indication that either will happen.

Fox's dream of owning all the rights to college football broadcasts - and forcing their networks on the basic tier across the country - doesn't really consider FCS at all. If anything Fox would want some "easy wins" to ensure good bowl spots.

However, I think all this chest-thumping is actually a smokescreen to say "if X does Y, or if Z happens, then the Pac Ten will (scoop up the remains of the Big XII, expand with Utah, or do nothing)". If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten tomorrow, all this ends I think.

[TexasTerror]

This is circulating the boards...

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs323.ash1/28310_804404529950_23932973_43629332_6361812_n.jpg

[DSUrocks07]

This is circulating the boards...

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs323.ash1/28310_804404529950_23932973_43629332_6361812_n.jpg

That would put the breaks on the FCS moving up to FBS talk across the board...unless you get an entire conference to move up together. But the four BCS conferences with four "mid-majors" would bring balance to the FBS landscape and solidify the divide between FBS and FCS schools.

[Redbird Ray]

I am starting to think this whole mega-conference thing is going to happen. I could see 4 or 5 16 team conferences taking in the 80 most desirable "big time" programs, and playing a regular season schedule AND POST SEASON PLAYOFF similar to the NFL. The BTN has shown how profitable it can be, and now all other power conferences want in on the action.

If this does happen, the gap in talent between the Power conference schools and non-power conference schools will be huge. It makes me wonder if those left out of the top 64/80 would then merge with FCS to create one large D1AA style subdivision, OR if those left out of the top 64/80 would stay in FBS, and you see a whole heap of stronger (competitively and financially) FCS teams move up to the new version of D1AA. Does that mean FCS as it is becomes D1AAA? Or do the FCS schools in their current state all go down to D2?

I wouldn't apply current rules or logic to any of these scenarios, as it does not appear that the powers that be are doing so.

[The Moody1]

That would put the breaks on the FCS moving up to FBS talk across the board...unless you get an entire conference to move up together. But the four BCS conferences with four "mid-majors" would bring balance to the FBS landscape and solidify the divide between FBS and FCS schools.

I wouldn't say that. The 14 team conferences will most likely look to go to 16. This would open up 8 spots.

[Ronbo]

This is circulating the boards...

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs323.ash1/28310_804404529950_23932973_43629332_6361812_n.jpg

It seems like a dropdown for Cinncinati to go to the CUSA. Also would Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State go to the MWC? I see problems with this setup dropping some schools that won't go without a fight.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I wouldn't say that. The 14 team conferences will most likely look to go to 16. This would open up 8 spots.

And that chart doesn't include South Alabama or Texas-San Antonio so that only leaves six spots. Charlotte and Georgia State are on record as wanting to go FBS which leaves four spots. Then you have App State, Georgia Southern, Jacksonville State, Texas State, JMU, Liberty, Illinois State, Stony Brook, Delaware, Montana, Youngstown State, ODU, etc., etc. Then add in potential start-ups at George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth. That's an awful lot of competition for four spots. Looks like a new league would have to be formed.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

It seems like a dropdown for Cinncinati to go to the CUSA. Also would Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State go to the MWC? I see problems with this setup dropping some schools that won't go without a fight.

If this 16 team mega conference expansion occurs, schools like Cincinnati, Louisville, Kansas, Kansas State, etc. could very easily be the "odd man out" and have no choice but align with the best remaining opportunity.

Missouri and Nebraska are being wooed by the Big Ten, Texas is being wooed by everyone, I don't see anyone seeking out the Kansas schools. Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn and West Virginia get mentioned often, South Florida, Louisville and Cincinnati not so much.

[paytonlives]

The FCS gets even more lost in the back pages.....

[PaladinFan]

I like the idea though. I am of the firm opinion that the FBS needs fewer schools not more. There's absolutely no reason for some of these teams to be FBS football. They don't have the money, the athletes, the alumni, the boosters, or the stadium.

I also don't think it would be bad for the FCS. Perhaps more schools could drop back down, restore rivalries, and increase the competition across the board.

[Ronbo]

The Conferences and the NCAA seems to have little backbone when it comes to dropping schools down. And none of the schools want to. There are schools like San Jose State that say they will drop football before dropping down.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

If megaconferences do end up happening for whatever reason, the only way there's an issue with FCS if they come up with a sort-of "ten or eleven game mandate" for their members, or a requirement that they can only play FBS schools (for example, WAC, Sun Belt, or others). But as of now there's no indication that either will happen.

Fox's dream of owning all the rights to college football broadcasts - and forcing their networks on the basic tier across the country - doesn't really consider FCS at all. If anything Fox would want some "easy wins" to ensure good bowl spots.

However, I think all this chest-thumping is actually a smokescreen to say "if X does Y, or if Z happens, then the Pac Ten will (scoop up the remains of the Big XII, expand with Utah, or do nothing)". If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten tomorrow, all this ends I think.

If that chart becomes true, there is no doubt in my mind that Navy and Army are all sports members of the ACC-16. I'd have to think that would be a serious impact on the Patriot League.

And there will be trickle down effect on all the remaining all sports leagues that will impact FCS.

But I will agree that there is a major league high stakes poker game going on. The Big 12 is trying to force Nebraska and Missouri's hand. If they don't get the commitment they're looking for, are they bluffing with the PAC 10 scenario???????

Personally, I don't think this all ends with a Notre Dame choice to be the 12th team in the Big Ten because they won't make that choice. They can still play the Independent game in that world. But if the Big East Football Conference ceases to exist like it would with the 16 team mega-conference proposal, the Irish would have to join a conference. Isn't their BCS bowl entry via the Big East? Regardless, the mega-conference world will finally make scheduling as an Independent too difficult for Notre Dame to endure. xtwocentsx

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Please, let's not get hysterical here. And get serious for a moment. There are Cadillac-sized loopholes in these arrangements.

How, exactly, are the CUSA-14 teams supposed to make money in basketball with an arrangement like that? That's a two bid league at best.

Why would the ACC want two football-only schools in Army of Navy?

Why would Cincy "slum" back in C-USA when they moved Hell and high water to get out of said conference? For football? Please.

But the biggest of all issues with these 16 team conferences - not least scheduling, travel, etc. - is how all the schools are going to make money. You have to expand the pot an awful lot to keep up these payouts at $7 million, etc. apiece. Yes, the conference that gets Texas (and *possibly* Notre Dame) would get that - but would anyone else? I can say for ****ed sure that the CUSA-14 abomination wouldn't. They and the MAC-14 would go bankrupt if they attempted to grow in the way this scenario presents itself.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If that chart becomes true, there is no doubt in my mind that Navy and Army are all sports members of the ACC-16. I'd have to think that would be a serious impact on the Patriot League.

Which is precisely why this would never happen. They are not willing to sacrifice Army/Navy football to go to the ACC, and they're not willing to become the whipping boys of Duke and UNC in basketball. If anything they'd go there as affiliates, but even then I think that's dicey. Especially if Notre Dame remains independent, since Notre Dame/Navy would still be an option.


But I will agree that there is a major league high stakes poker game going on. The Big 12 is trying to force Nebraska and Missouri's hand. If they don't get the commitment they're looking for, are they bluffing with the PAC 10 scenario???????

Personally, I don't think this all ends with a Notre Dame choice to be the 12th team in the Big Ten because they won't make that choice. They can still play the Independent game in that world. But if the Big East Football Conference ceases to exist like it would with the 16 team mega-conference proposal, the Irish would have to join a conference. Isn't their BCS bowl entry via the Big East? Regardless, the mega-conference world will finally make scheduling as an Independent too difficult for Notre Dame to endure. xtwocentsx

But if Notre Dame joins the Big Ten and the game ends, all the Big East needs to do is get another school (Temple? ECU? Memphis?) and then things continue on as normal.

I still think this is a big bluff in order to get headlines. Everyone wants Texas (or possibly Notre Dame), it's the only school that could make any of these financial Disneylands work. If Texas stays Big XII, this ends fast. Even a Notre Dame move wouldn't spell the end of the Big East. It's only if Notre Dame + 2 or Notre Dame + 4 happens that weird stuff might happen.

[WestCoastAggie]

What will all of this do to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the true money maker for MOST involved?

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Isn't the only difference between today's MAC and the MAC-14 the addition of Temple as an all sports member? Don't see how that would bankrupt them.

LFN, we know you hate the idea of the mega-conferences, but no one is getting hysterical here because the mega-conference is being very seriously discussed across the country. The BCS schools for a long time have wanted to exclude rather than include schools in their sharing of the money. People are only commenting on very possible scenarios and fallout.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Which is precisely why this would never happen. They are not willing to sacrifice Army/Navy football to go to the ACC, and they're not willing to become the whipping boys of Duke and UNC. If anything they'd go there as affiliates, but even then I think that's dicey. Especially if Notre Dame remains independent, since Notre Dame/Navy would still be an option.

Whipping boy of Duke???? You can't be serious. The Duke that loses to CAA teams? Richmond has beat Duke twice, correct?

If four mega-conferences of 16 evolve, then how do independents survive?

There won't be any affiliates in the Power 64. xtwocentsx



But if Notre Dame joins the Big Ten and the game ends, all the Big East needs to do is get another school (Temple? ECU? Memphis?) and then things continue on as normal.

I still think this is a big bluff in order to get headlines. Everyone wants Texas (or possibly Notre Dame), it's the only school that could make any of these financial Disneylands work. If Texas stays Big XII, this ends fast. Even a Notre Dame move wouldn't spell the end of the Big East. It's only if Notre Dame + 2 or Notre Dame + 4 happens that weird stuff might happen.

But there is little sign that Notre Dame will join a 12 member Big Ten. That's why all the discussions and scenarios evolve.

Sure Texas wants to stay in the Big 12, but the Big 12 seems to be asking Nebraska and Missouri for a commitment they aren't willing to give. That has been documented. If there wasn't a very good chance of an offer from the Big Ten, why would those schools not re-commit to the Big 12? Then a ten team Big XII will not stand still.

Sorry, but I think there is a whole lot more than bluffs to get headlines going on.

[PaladinFan]

Why is this even an issue? It seems that all of this talk started of the need for the Pac 10 and Big 10 to pony up and play a conference championship game and add one or two more competitive teams to their conference. Not sure why the whole college football landscape has to go bottoms up.

[UAalum72]

The Austin American-Statesman said last night that the Big 12 presidents have given Nebraska and Missouri until 5 pm Friday to decide if they're staying or going to the Big 10. http://www.statesman.com/sports/nebraska-missouri-given-ultimatum-on-deciding-their-futures-729660.html

[MplsBison]

The Austin American-Statesman said last night that the Big 12 presidents have given Nebraska and Missouri until 5 pm Friday to decide if they're staying or going to the Big 10. http://www.statesman.com/sports/nebraska-missouri-given-ultimatum-on-deciding-their-futures-729660.html

So again, it comes down to the Big Ten.

I wonder what happens if it's Friday around 3-4pm and Big Ten has told Missouri yes for sure but not to Nebraska?

What does Nebraska do?


And if Big Ten does guarantee spots for NU and MU, then what's next? Will Texas give the "yes" signal and the entire Big XII south goes to the Pac 10? Or will A&M say "just hold on a second, we want the SEC"?

[godogs]

Why is this even an issue? It seems that all of this talk started of the need for the Pac 10 and Big 10 to pony up and play a conference championship game and add one or two more competitive teams to their conference. Not sure why the whole college football landscape has to go bottoms up.

almighty $$$$$ ----- bottom line

[Cocky]

And that chart doesn't include South Alabama or Texas-San Antonio so that only leaves six spots. Charlotte and Georgia State are on record as wanting to go FBS which leaves four spots. Then you have App State, Georgia Southern, Jacksonville State, Texas State, JMU, Liberty, Illinois State, Stony Brook, Delaware, Montana, Youngstown State, ODU, etc., etc. Then add in potential start-ups at George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth. That's an awful lot of competition for four spots. Looks like a new league would have to be formed.


JSU's BOT is on record of supporting a move to FBS. They tried but were denied because of the moratorium. Plus we are not spending 60 million on stadium improvements to stay in the FCS or at least I hope not. That would be a huge waste of money in a football stadium went you could upgrade other athletic items to attract athletes.

[zilla]

If the Big 10 is going to invite Nebraska & Missouri, why not go ahead and extend an invitation to Kansas?

Such an addition would be great for Big 10 basketball. The Jayhawks aren't too shabby in FB/baseball either.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The Austin American-Statesman said last night that the Big 12 presidents have given Nebraska and Missouri until 5 pm Friday to decide if they're staying or going to the Big 10. http://www.statesman.com/sports/nebraska-missouri-given-ultimatum-on-deciding-their-futures-729660.html

I counted four anonymous sources in that thing that is masquerading as reporting.

[Go...gate]

I cannot see the service academies, including Air Force, surviving where they are slotted.

[WileECoyote06]

I cannot see the service academies, including Air Force, surviving where they are slotted.

I don't think it matters to them either way.

As far as the projections:

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs323.ash1/28310_804404529950_23932973_43629332_6361812_n.jpg

I don't think I agree with the movement of several CUSA teams to the WAC. I also think we're more likely to see the Big 12 fetch several CUSA and MWC members before we see the opposite occur. And I can't see the ACC taking on Army and Navy as football only schools.

Also don't see the ACC taking Louisville, or West Virginia (even if that's what the fans desperately want); but that's highly dependent on what the southern ACC schools do. . . I don't know if football is enough to draw the southern schools away, especially since the ACC is very competitive in the olympic sports.

--- Two-time defending national champions in mens basketball
--- Men's Lacrosse champions
--- Women's Lacrosse champions
--- Field Hockey
--- Men's Soccer
--- Women's Soccer

[EIU02]

The big losers in all this expansion talk is the Big 12. What was Dan Beebe thinking. I remember him when he was in the OVC. What will Beebe do when the Big 12 is no more. The way the FCS is, is just fine. We have a playoff system in place, just like every other sport out there. And that seems to work.

[MplsBison]

If the Big 10 is going to invite Nebraska & Missouri, why not go ahead and extend an invitation to Kansas?

Such an addition would be great for Big 10 basketball. The Jayhawks aren't too shabby in FB/baseball either.

This is a legitimate question.

Kansas has an elite bball program with large national exposure, a decent and improving football program and a great rivalry with MU that could be ported over to the Big Ten like the MU-Illinois rivalry.

Kansas is also AAU, like Missouri and Nebraska.


Probably the only thing holding KU back from the Big Ten is KSU. Would Kansas legislature allow KU to leave KSU out in the wind? Probably not.

[Bogus Megapardus]

What would four FCS über-conferences look like?

[Twentysix]

I don't think you'll see any changes with the SEC either. The conference has the highest revenue, the best teams, the biggest stadiums, and the most national exposure. Why on earth would they break that up?

I really can't even see them taking on another member either unless one of the member schools broke off and needed to be replaced. I don't see any schools doing that, as noted, because the SEC is where they make the most money.

I was under the impression the Big Ten is everything you said.

Maybe its relative to where we reside and what percieved national exposure is, its interesting though ive heard it reported that the Big Ten is the biggest money maker.

Well maybe not the best teams part, but the revenue and stadium size.

[Twentysix]

Just looked up the attendance factoid, guess not.

[Squealofthepig]

For those curious on the biggest draws in FBS (2009 numbers):

Rank School......G...Attendance...Average
1. Michigan.......8...871,464........108,933
2. Penn St........8...856,066........107,008
3. Ohio St........7...736,830........105,261
4. Texas .........6...607,049........101,175
5. Tennessee....8...793,760.........99,220
6. Georgia........6...556,476.........92,746
7. LSU.............7...647,420.........92,489
8. Alabama.......7...644,084.........92,012
9. Florida.........7...634,446.........90,635
10. Nebraska....7...601,216.........85,888

15. Wisconsin...7...560,764.........80,109
19. Michigan St.7...523,186.........74,741
21. Iowa .........7...491,499.........70,214
29. Illinois........6...357,267.........59,545

Pretty good, 7 of the top 30. However, they're #2 in overall average attendance:

Rank Conference.......Teams Games...Attendance....Average...Chg.
1. Southeastern.............12...86.......6,560,738.. .... 76,288.....-556
2. Big Ten.....................11...77.....*5,526,237.... .. 71,769... 1,644
3. Big 12.......................12...82.......5,155,739.. .....62,875......-81

*Conference record

But, as others have noted, the Big Ten (+/-) is #1 in revenues generated per team, thanks mostly to The Big Ten Network. The big irony here is that if we had all gotten behind Comcast (!) and helped them strangle the BTN in its grave, we might not be here now.

All stats from the NCAA - http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/stats/football_records/Attendance/2009.pdf