Best Chances for a Win over FBS

[TexasTerror]

Heading into 2010, what is the FCS best chance at an FBS win?

Here's some games I've pinpointed, you give me your feedback or add some other games...I'm sure the UNH guys will add their game based on recent track records..

Sept 2
North Dakota @ Idaho
Eastern Washington @ Nevada

Sept 3
Wofford @ Ohio

Sept 4
Elon @ Duke
Southeastern La. @ Tulane

Sept 11
North Dakota @ Northern Illinois

Sept 26
Southeastern La. @ ULM

[CrazyCat]

Sept. 11

Montana State @ Washington State

2009 final sagarin ratings: MSU(120) WSU(126)

[NHwildEcat]

Heading into 2010, what is the FCS best chance at an FBS win?

Here's some games I've pinpointed, you give me your feedback or add some other games...I'm sure the UNH guys will add their game based on recent track records..

Sept 2
North Dakota @ Idaho
Eastern Washington @ Nevada

Sept 3
Wofford @ Ohio

Sept 4
Elon @ Duke
Southeastern La. @ Tulane

Sept 11
North Dakota @ Northern Illinois

Sept 26
Southeastern La. @ ULM

No...not this year. We may play Pitt close if things go well, but anyone who is realistic knows this one may not be within reach!

[Squealofthepig]

Sept. 11

Montana State @ Washington State

2009 final sagarin ratings: MSU(120) WSU(126)

Oh, man, that'd be worth driving over to Pullman for!

As far as a conference's best chances, the Missouri Valley has some interesting matchups:

9/4
NDSU @ Kansas
YSU @ Penn State

9/11
Illinois State @ Northwestern
Indiana State @ Cincinnati
Missouri State @ Kansas State
SIU @ Illinois
Western Illinois @ Purdue

9/25
UNI @ Iowa State
SDSU @ Nebraska

So staying in the middle of the country and playing a bunch of Big Ten and Big Twelve Schools (and one Big East). Although I'll be cheering for the visiting team on every single game, not sure any of those are probable upsets, though many are possible. UNI at Iowa State is a definite possibility, and SIU @ Illinois is far from out there. IF SDSU was earlier, I'd say they'd have a shot at Nebraska, but Big Red will have a couple games under their belt AND will be heading into a bye week.

And the Penguins at Penn State is just plain fun, though hard to pick against Joe Paterno at home.

[Brad82]

URI over Buffalo.
Only because this may be one of their best chances given the schedule.

[Squealofthepig]

D'oh, and since Texas Terror didn't post it:

9/4
SHSU @ Baylor (4-8 in 2009)

To be fair, Baylor didn't have an easy schedule last year, but opening the year with an in-state FBS school might not bring out the Bears fans, so hopefully some Southland supporters will come in force!

[aggiemba]

Sept 4th

UC Davis Aggies over Cal :D

[lionsrking2]

For the record, the Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane game will be played on Thursday, September 2nd.

[TexasTerror]

For the record, the Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane game will be played on Thursday, September 2nd.

I knew that! ;)

May need to get a press pass for that game. It's one I would not mind watching in the least bit.

[Wildcat80]

No...not this year. We may play Pitt close if things go well, but anyone who is realistic knows this one may not be within reach!

Ya Gotta believe!!!! Pitt has a history of starting slow when heavily favored. May not be the best chance for an FBS win....BUT IT WOULD BE HUGE!!! Go Cats!! xhurrayxxhurrayxxhurrayx

[SpeedkingATL]

Maybe the Apps can catch the Florida Gators looking ahead to Florida State.:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[PhoenixSupreme]

As long as Elon doesn't catch their basketball team, I'd say they would have a decent shot to beat Duke if a receiver steps up.

[Eight Legger]

If we get our OL situation straightened out, we should have a pretty good shot to beat UVA and our former coach in September.

[Keenan]

Liberty @ Ball State 09/11/10

[ThreadStopper]

Liberty @ Ball State 09/11/10

Ball State is FBS? :D

[NHwildEcat]

Ya Gotta believe!!!! Pitt has a history of starting slow when heavily favored. May not be the best chance for an FBS win....BUT IT WOULD BE HUGE!!! Go Cats!! xhurrayxxhurrayxxhurrayx

Of course it would be huge...hell it would be the biggest yet! But, in all reality if we play them within 10 points I would be surprised.

[jstclmet]

Fri, 9/3, Nova @ Temple @ The Linc.

Nova owns a 2 game win streak over the Owls. Came from 10 down in the 4th to win 27 - 24 last year.

[ming01]

Oh, man, that'd be worth driving over to Pullman for!

As far as a conference's best chances, the Missouri Valley has some interesting matchups:

9/4
NDSU @ Kansas
YSU @ Penn State

9/11
Illinois State @ Northwestern
Indiana State @ Cincinnati
Missouri State @ Kansas State
SIU @ Illinois
Western Illinois @ Purdue

9/25
UNI @ Iowa State
SDSU @ Nebraska

So staying in the middle of the country and playing a bunch of Big Ten and Big Twelve Schools (and one Big East). Although I'll be cheering for the visiting team on every single game, not sure any of those are probable upsets, though many are possible. UNI at Iowa State is a definite possibility, and SIU @ Illinois is far from out there. IF SDSU was earlier, I'd say they'd have a shot at Nebraska, but Big Red will have a couple games under their belt AND will be heading into a bye week.

And the Penguins at Penn State is just plain fun, though hard to pick against Joe Paterno at home.

Im gonna go with SIU vs. Illinois.

[Rob Iola]

da8-legged Freaks over daHoos - 9/4

[Gil Dobie]

IMO, Montana St over WSU, Elon over Duke and Nova over Temple xhurrayx

[darell1976]

Given how sucky Idaho was in football in the past I would say UND has a chance to knock them off, but Idaho turned things around and went bowling so I would say UND will lose to both Idaho and N. Illinois who also went bowling last year. But anything is possible.:D

[bjtheflamesfan]

I think LU has a chance to knock off Ball State. It may not be a major FBS probram but a win over an FBS school would definitely do great things for the lagacy of Danny Rocco as LU coach (and itd be only our second in school history)

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'd have to say the most likely would be Montana State over Washington State. The Cougars are just god-awful and MSU should be in contention for the BSC title and a playoff bid.

[GoAgs72]

UC Davis plays two FBS teams in 2010.

9/4: Cal - about 1 in 100 chance of a UC Davis win
10/2: San Jose State - about a 50/50 chance of a UC Davis win.

[appfan2008]

Duke will be much better off of a 5 win team... it will take everything elon has...

would love to see app pull off another miracle but I wouldnt bet on it...

[Go...gate]

9/25

Colgate @ Syracuse

[Squealofthepig]

Love this thread, and compiled all of the FBS vs. FCS matchups for 2010 in a separate thread (see link); thought it would be worth separating as a single resource, and will edit as we go. Hope it's a great resource for this thread!

http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?p=1522621

[Houndawg]

Im gonna go with SIU vs. Illinois.

Wish we could have played them last year.

Last two meetings: 1985 - SIU misses a 47 yard FG with 0:00 on the clock to lose 28-25. You could have heard a pin drop in Champaign.

Last meeting - forget when, > 10 years ago - UI rallies to Beat SIU 52-21 after being down 21-0. UI quit scheduling SIU.

[slostang]

Cal Poly @ Fresno State on Oct. 2nd. xshhhx

[bincitysioux]

I'm optimistic that North Dakota will go 1-1 against the FBS this season.............I think we stand a chance against either Idaho or Northern Illinois.

[darell1976]

I'm optimistic that North Dakota will go 1-1 against the FBS this season.............I think we stand a chance against either Idaho or Northern Illinois.

Depends what Sioux team shows up. Last years team was such a mystery you didn't know what team would show.

[Redbird Ray]

Liberty over Ball State, Nova over Temple, and SIU over Illinois are the three most likely IMO.

There are usually what, like 2-4 FCS over FBS upsets each year? While I can see many other FBS teams being pushed by FCS squads, these are the only three that jump out at me as legit possibilities. But you never know, so good luck to all FCS squads in their FBS battles!

BTW, I will be going to TWO FCS/FBS games on 09/11 when Illinois State takes on Northwestern in Evanston at 11AM, and then hauling ass down I-57 to catch SIU @ Illinois at night (630PM?) in Champaign.

[JBB]

NDSU over KU? Not likely. Defense isnt proven. Thats a lot to hope for: predicting a win with an unproven defense. Add in a few questions on offense and you have a long shot. I hope they could win. I felt we were in the game with ISU last year, probably should have won. Should have is not winning but ISU was better than KU last year. So, the BISON have an interesting game. Probably as much chance of a blow out as a BISON win.

[SpidersSportsEditor]

If we get our OL situation straightened out, we should have a pretty good shot to beat UVA and our former coach in September.

Yea, I'd say Richmond wins that game at least one out of four times, so 25% chance is pretty good compared to some of the other games listed there. Plus, we all know London lets games go down to the wire, so I certainly think we'll give them a run.

[LakesBison]

Texas Terror, that is laughable for anyone to think that UND could win a FBS game, even pathetic teams who went to bowl games like idaho and northern illinois they lost to a NAIA team last year and was losing to a NAIA team that was 2-9 in the 3rd quarter, and you think they can beat a fbs?


NOVA and COLGATE (syracuse was horrible vs minnesota last year)

[darell1976]

Texas Terror, that is laughable for anyone to think that UND could win a FBS game, even pathetic teams who went to bowl games like idaho and northern illinois they lost to a NAIA team last year and was losing to a NAIA team that was 2-9 in the 3rd quarter, and you think they can beat a fbs?


NOVA and COLGATE (syracuse was horrible vs minnesota last year)

As far as i know its a new season Mr. 3-8.

[LakesBison]

ha ha, spin it how you want, you LOST to a NAIA, and were losing to a 2-9 NAIA team in the 3rd quarter. wow, you can see thru brick walls huh. xbangx

[darell1976]

ha ha, spin it how you want, you LOST to a NAIA, and were losing to a 2-9 NAIA team in the 3rd quarter. wow, you can see thru brick walls huh. xbangx

We lost to the NAIA Champion, and were losing but WON against another opponent. Big diff in losing but ending up winning a game than losing the game something NDSU did 8 times last year.

[bjtheflamesfan]

this is about the best chance for an FCS team to beat an FBS team...not which North Dakota Football Program is better

[JBB]

UND isnt the best hope for an FCS over FBS victory. In fact they have no hope. Even though its a new year you wouldnt know that by the UND posters and their slams against NDSU record from last year. But that is irrelevant. Its just more of the hate from them.

NDSU has a tough hill to climb even though KU isnt a great FBS team. They are ranked 31 by some but have a lot of questions themselves. Their projected finish in the Big 12 is in the lower tier.

Their defense is suspect. NDSUs offense is looking good. Their offense has a lot of question marks. New head coach too. The NDSU defense has been rebuilding from the ground up. We lost a great defensive lineman to crime this off season. That hurts, but there is a boat load of young talent. Coach Bohl knows what it takes to be successful. He is no warmed over D2 coach, or worse yet a high school hopeful. He has a lot of young players that have at least a year under their belt. Its a classic bubbling under scenario.

Win or lose I love these games. They are the most interesting games the FCS plays. Can anyone ever forget how it felt when ASU went the Big House and won. I know NDSU and its fans will never forget what it felt like to win at Minnesota either. These games point the way to a more exciting future for programs inclined to move up. They also provide all FCS teams with a nice payday and they are for the most part winnable David/Goliath match-ups.

[jmufan999]

still upset we lost in OT to Maryland last year. painful.

[JMUDuke2002]

still upset we lost in OT to Maryland last year. painful.

Ugh. Don't remind me. I'm convinced we would have been playoff bound with that win even though it would have put us at only 7 wins on the season.

[PhoenixPhan06]

Elon over Duke on 9/4 in a close one

[UNIFanSince1983]

I think we can beat ISU, but doubt we will. We have played well against them recently. Beat them soundly in 2007, and missed a long field goal at the end in 2006. The problem is I think Rhodes has them headed in the right direction, and we have LOTS of question marks.

I have to assume people don't give us a great chance because of all those question marks. I think Montana State has probably the best chance. I think Richmond could win. There are probably a couple others.

[lionsrking2]

Don't know that we have the best chance of pulling out an FCS over FBS win, but I feel like our chances of beating either Tulane or ULM - or both - are relatively good. We've played better Tulane teams with much lesser talent and experience than we have now and played them to within a TD both times. Lost 28-21, on a kickoff return, in 2005, and lost 35-27 in '07, when Matt Forte ran wild on us...we had 7 true freshman logging lots of snaps on defense that year, and most of them are back.

ULM is really thin up front defensively and I feel good about going into Monroe and having a chance to win...we played a better Louisiana Tech team close in 2008 and we're much better now than we were two years ago.

We could just as easily lose both, but I think we'll get at least one.

[JohnStOnge]

Based on the way things have gone with the Sun Belt in recent years (i.e., they appear to be less and less inclined to play FCS teams that can beat them), I'm surprised that ULM is even playing Southeastern Louisiana. Especially when I think Southeastern Louisiana is going to have its best team since bringing back football.

[lionsrking2]

Based on the way things have gone with the Sun Belt in recent years (i.e., they appear to be less and less inclined to play FCS teams that can beat them), I'm surprised that ULM is even playing Southeastern Louisiana. Especially when I think Southeastern Louisiana is going to have its best team since bringing back football.

I too was surprised ULM agreed to schedule us, though we were at the bottom of the league at the time...I'm still not sure they're all that concerned about us - at least their fans don't seem to be from what I read on their message boards. That's understandable, but I'm sure some of the old-timers who follow their program aren't too thrilled to be playing us, considering we used to kick their ass with regularity before dropping football after the '85 season...in fact, they were one of our only two wins that year. I think we're something like 25-10 against them all-time.

[jmufan999]

Ugh. Don't remind me. I'm convinced we would have been playoff bound with that win even though it would have put us at only 7 wins on the season.

absolutely agree. if Maine got in with 7 wins a few years ago without an FBS win, i think we would have had a legit shot. oh well. we wouldn't have had a chance to win it all with Thorpe, anyway (just my opinion). at least not in his freshman year and against that field of playoff teams.

[RabidRabbit]

Don't know that we have the best chance of pulling out an FCS over FBS win, but I feel like our chances of beating either Tulane or ULM - or both - are relatively good. We've played better Tulane teams with much lesser talent and experience than we have now and played them to within a TD both times. Lost 28-21, on a kickoff return, in 2005, and lost 35-27 in '07, when Matt Forte ran wild on us...we had 7 true freshman logging lots of snaps on defense that year, and most of them are back.

ULM is really thin up front defensively and I feel good about going into Monroe and having a chance to win...we played a better Louisiana Tech team close in 2008 and we're much better now than we were two years ago.

We could just as easily lose both, but I think we'll get at least one.

SE LA has a team this year that should challenge well for the Southland crown, and also has two FBS games that are winnable.

Not like SDSU going to Lincoln to face the Hooskers. Hope that game will be like Minnesota was last year, and totally not like the IA St game in '08.

[JohnStOnge]

I too was surprised ULM agreed to schedule us, though we were at the bottom of the league at the time...I'm still not sure they're all that concerned about us - at least their fans don't seem to be from what I read on their message boards. That's understandable

I think it's understandable only in that fans of Sun Belt schools live in a world of delusion in which they think that they play in a conference that is above FCS in caliber. ULM as a I-A/FBS is 5-6 against I-AA/FBS Southland Conference teams during the BCS era. Moreover, as a Sun Belt member ULM is 0-5 against Southland Conference teams. The (now) Warhawks last won a game against a Southland Conference team in 2000. They then lost to Southland teams in 2001, 2002, 2003 (twice), and 2005. It's been a while but you're talking about a team that beat 0-12 Western Kentucky...you know...that Western Kentucky team that lost to Central Arkansas by 28-7...by 21-18 last year.

So, yes, if they had any connection to reality they would be concerned and realize that they can lose to Southeastern Louisiana in 2010.

[apaladin]

Furman over South Carolina on 9/18/ xthumbsupx

[Redbird Ray]

I think it's understandable only in that fans of Sun Belt schools live in a world of delusion in which they think that they play in a conference that is above FCS in caliber. ULM as a I-A/FBS is 5-6 against I-AA/FBS Southland Conference teams during the BCS era. Moreover, as a Sun Belt member ULM is 0-5 against Southland Conference teams. The (now) Warhawks last won a game against a Southland Conference team in 2000. They then lost to Southland teams in 2001, 2002, 2003 (twice), and 2005. It's been a while but you're talking about a team that beat 0-12 Western Kentucky...you know...that Western Kentucky team that lost to Central Arkansas by 28-7...by 21-18 last year.

So, yes, if they had any connection to reality they would be concerned and realize that they can lose to Southeastern Louisiana in 2010.

I made it pretty clear on the SB board awhile back that if WKU were still in the MVFC, they would have finished in the bottom third of the conference. WKU and SB fans just shrugged this claim off, saying that I just don't "know" the difference, and that strength, speed, and depth is so much superior at their level.

[JohnStOnge]

I made it pretty clear on the SB board awhile back that if WKU were still in the MVFC, they would have finished in the bottom third of the conference. WKU and SB fans just shrugged this claim off, saying that I just don't "know" the difference, and that strength, speed, and depth is so much superior at their level.

Yes, I know. I learned a long time ago that Sun Belt fans live in la la land. Like before McNeese played ULL in 2007 it was all about how superior their level is then McNeese beat them 38-17. You're reporting that WKU fans are saying stuff like that in spite of getting handled 28-7 by Central Arkansas last year. And I'm sure if ULL were playing a Southland team or even a CAA team this year they'd be saying the same kinds of things this year as they were saying in 2007 before they got thumped by McNeese.

I guess if you talk about the level of FBS overall they're right. But the majority of the teams in FBS are BCS league teams. The problem for the Sun Belt is that when it comes to talent level they are a distant, bottom of the barrell outlier with respect to FBS. Way, WAY below average. The worst. Much closer to the average talent level of FCS than they are to the average talent level of FBS.

[aggiemba]

Seriously people, could be UC Davis vs. San Jose St. in mid October.

[JohnStOnge]

Seriously people, could be UC Davis vs. San Jose St. in mid October.

That might do it if ULM wasn't playing somebody! It'd be hard to think of a weaker FBS program than ULM Well, Western Kentucky maybe. But it's close.

[holycrossC]

IMO, Montana St over WSU, Elon over Duke and Nova over Temple xhurrayx

How about Montana, there FBS opponent is...Oh thats right.

[JohnStOnge]

Given how sucky Idaho was in football in the past I would say UND has a chance to knock them off, but Idaho turned things around and went bowling so I would say UND will lose to both Idaho and N. Illinois who also went bowling last year. But anything is possible.:D

Well, I guess going "bowling" means they're not really, REALLY bad but more than half the teams in FBS do that this year. So "going bowling" and "good" are by no means synonymous. Like, yeah, Idaho and Northern Illinois went to bowls last year but, just to get an idea, they ended up at 73rd and 83rd among 120 FBS teams in the "average" rankings at http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm .

As those rankings imply the 64 teams in bowls probably weren't the "best" 64 FBS teams. I think there were teams in BCS leagues with fewer than 6 wins that were better than teams from minor conferences that were bowl eligible.

Bottom line: I think both Idaho and Northern Illinois were weaker than average FBS teams last year and I expect the same will be true of both this year.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Well, I guess going "bowling" means they're not really, REALLY bad but more than half the teams in FBS do that this year. So "going bowling" and "good" are by no means synonymous. Like, yeah, Idaho and Northern Illinois went to bowls last year but, just to get an idea, they ended up at 73rd and 83rd among 120 FBS teams in the "average" rankings at http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm .

As those rankings imply the 64 teams in bowls probably weren't the "best" 64 FBS teams. I think there were teams in BCS leagues with fewer than 6 wins that were better than teams from minor conferences that were bowl eligible.

Bottom line: I think both Idaho and Northern Illinois were weaker than average FBS teams last year and I expect the same will be true of both this year.

By average if you mean a team that is ranked around 60 out of the around 120 FCS teams in say the GPI, then I disagree. Perhaps you need to review the Northern Illinois 2009 results -- lost by 8 at Wisconsin, won by 7 at Purdue and beat Western Illinois 41-7. For argument sake WIU was #94 in the final GPI. Teams #59, 60 and 61 were Northeastern (3-8), Northern Colorado (3-8) and Eastern Kentucky (5-6). My money is on Idaho and Northern Illinois in those match-ups. xtwocentsx

http://espn.go.com/ncf/teams/schedule?teamId=2459&year=2009

[JohnStOnge]

By average if you mean a team that is ranked around 60 out of the around 120 FCS teams in say the GPI, then I disagree. Perhaps you need to review the Northern Illinois 2009 results -- lost by 8 at Wisconsin, won by 7 at Purdue and beat Western Illinois 41-7. For argument sake WIU was #94 in the final GPI. Teams #59, 60 and 61 were Northeastern (3-8), Northern Colorado (3-8) and Eastern Kentucky (5-6). My money is on Idaho and Northern Illinois in those match-ups

As often happens we're getting way off topic but I'll go ahead and respond. I don't know what the point about the GPI is. In its only game against a BCS league team, Idaho lost by 42-23 to 5-7 Washington. Then Idaho beat Northern Illinois. And I don't see how Northern Illinois edging 5-7 Purdue showed that much. Purdue was also probably a below average FBS team.

We could go on and look at who played who and who played who, etc. But I'm not seeing how what you posted supports the argument that Northern Illinois and Idaho weren't below average FBS teams.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

As often happens we're getting way off topic but I'll go ahead and respond. I don't know what the point about the GPI is. In its only game against a BCS league team, Idaho lost by 42-23 to 5-7 Washington. Then Idaho beat Northern Illinois. And I don't see how Northern Illinois edging 5-7 Purdue showed that much. Purdue was also probably a below average FBS team.

We could go on and look at who played who and who played who, etc. But I'm not seeing how what you posted supports the argument that Northern Illinois and Idaho weren't below average FBS teams.

My apologies, guess I hadn't cleared the cobwebs out by Noon today. :o :o xnonono2x I thought you were saying average FCS teams could beat Idaho and Northern Illinois, that's why I brought the GPI into the discussion. Reading mistake on my part. xpeacex xpeacex xpeacex

[TexasTerror]

I too was surprised ULM agreed to schedule us, though we were at the bottom of the league at the time...I'm still not sure they're all that concerned about us - at least their fans don't seem to be from what I read on their message boards. That's understandable, but I'm sure some of the old-timers who follow their program aren't too thrilled to be playing us, considering we used to kick their *** with regularity before dropping football after the '85 season...in fact, they were one of our only two wins that year. I think we're something like 25-10 against them all-time.

Those ULM fans will be thinking they have a cakewalk coming into that game. They'll be in for it...

The SLC is what - 9-4 against the Sun Belt since the league formed? Figure ULM will go back to regularly scheduled SWAC contests after this one. Problem is, they probably do not have the $$$ to meet the SWAC's high cost for buying a guarantee game.