Elon @ UR Poll

[KiddBrewer]

Who wins this game? IMO, its one of the most interesting games of the first round. As an Appalachian fan it has huge implications (if we win saturdayxpopcornx) I think these teams are pretty close. Im going with Elon for a number of reasons (riddle, hudgins, implications for second round, socon homer, etc), but what do you think?

[LacesOut]

Spidahs.

[KiddBrewer]

the question comes down to can Elon's typically awesome offense move it on Richmond's awesome defense....xcoffeex

[soccerguy315]

I went with UR, and I don't really think this game will be close.

maybe Elon will surprise me though.

the ASU fans are obviously rooting hard for Elon, because 1. they would get another home game, and 2. they already squashed Elon, and would be happy to do it again.

[KiddBrewer]

i doubt its that cut and dry in this one. but maybe ill be wrong. dont really care either way. just interesting. i think elon is a lot better than they played against appalachian.

[Skjellyfetti]

The 2009 Southern Conference Champions triumph 28-24

[Elon Fightin' Christians]

I had to be a Homer.

[Native]

the question comes down to can Elon's typically awesome offense move it on Richmond's awesome defense....xcoffeex

Elon's offense is ranked 108th among all 240+ DI teams this week by Massey. Richmond's is 66th.

[PhoenixSupreme]

Elon's offense is ranked 108th among all 240+ DI teams this week by Massey. Richmond's is 66th.

Interesting cuz The Sports Network says Elon's total offense is better than Richmond's (9th vs 49th) and in scoring offense (T-16th vs T-22nd).

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/stat/1AA-team-totaloff.htm

[Native]

Interesting cuz The Sports Network says Elon's total offense is better than Richmond's (9th vs 49th) and in scoring offense (T-16th vs T-22nd).

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/stat/1AA-team-totaloff.htm

Massey is one of several. I can't tell from the brief description how he figures the rating, but to achieve results from the pure NCAA scoring stats, he must normalize the defensive power differences among teams and conferences. Here is what the web site says:

"Offense / Defense

A team's Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpreted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team's Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent's expected score accordingly.

It should be emphasized that the Off/Def breakdown is simply a post-processing step, and as such has no bearing on the overall rating. A consequence of this is that the Off/Def ratings may not always match actual production numbers. A team that routinely wins close games may have somewhat inflated Off/Def ratings to reflect the fact that they are likely to play well when they have to. Winning games requires more than just the ability to score points, but also teamwork, mental strength, and consistency. The Off/Def breakdown is simply an estimate of how much of a team's strength can be attributed to good offensive and defensive play respectively."

http://www.mratings.com/theory/massey.htm#offdef

[KiddBrewer]

although im not discrediting mr. massey or yourself, i find it hard to believe that they are really middle of the pack in offense

56-0
41-7
7-35
28-14
19-12
43-7
45-10
34-6
42-17
10-27
27-7

thats 31.1 points per game. i understand he must weigh in the opposing defenses pretty heavily, so that may make some sense. however, i simply believe they have a strong offense, regardless of opponent.

[phoenixphanatic21]

Had to go homer here. And I refuse to believe that we are a middle of the pack offense, regardless of what Massey says.

[Saluki09]

As a non SoCon/CAA fan I will throw in my xtwocentsx though part of the explanation shows MVFC bias...

I don't see either seeded team on that side of the bracket making the semis... I believe Richmond will beat Elon, but won't be able to take down App second round. Richmond has had a lot of close games and a team can only keep it up so long. That being said Elon really hasn't done anything. They lost their only 2 tough games (by 17+), not scoring more than 10 points in either one, and even their "signature" win @Furman scored only 19.

As for the blatant MVFC bias, I for some reason am feeling good about an SDSU upset @Montana, hence the statement of neither seed on that side of the bracket making the semis. If Montana blows SDSU out I'll eat my crow.

[appmaj]

Conference Homer

[PhoenixMan]

Had to go homer here. And I refuse to believe that we are a middle of the pack offense, regardless of what Massey says.

I think Elon's offense boils down to this in the big picture (having seen all home games and a couple of away this year)......IF Riddle gets time to throw, and I don't mean all day, just long enough for someone (usually TH) to get open, it's trouble for the defense. He rarely makes a mistake if he has time. When he gets pressure, sacked more than 3 times, they struggle to score (Wake and App St.). So, let's block a little bit this Saturday boys.