Most Likely to get upset in the First Round

[paul1978]

Weber St over William and Mary
xthumbsupx

[Bettina90]

I will consider it an "Upset", if Weber is within 17 points entering the fourth quarter of play.

[TheTribeHasSpoken]

Montana over SDST

[theasushow]

Assuming the home teams are the favorites.
I'll go with UNH over Mcneese State

[msupokes1]

Home teams are not the favorites. I actually believe that UNH is the favorite in this game. I would say if McNeese wins it would be an upset.

[GolfingGriz]

Weber over William and Mary. If Weebs O can get on a roll they'll be a tough out.

[Saint3333]

Home teams are not the favorites. I actually believe that UNH is the favorite in this game. I would say if McNeese wins it would be an upset.

McNeese fans are great sandbaggers. I heard this the week before ASU, is your RB 100%?

[Gil Dobie]

Most of the games are close, so if one of the top 4 seeds lost, like maybe SIU, it would be an upset.

[ezgriz51]

Weber State

[McNeese75]

McNeese fans are great sandbaggers. I heard this the week before ASU, is your RB 100%?

xeekx Us????????? :D Pendland appears to be just fine.

[smcwildcat]

mcneese im interested to see how u feel about playn us?.....im pretty worried about goin to lilweeziana 17000 fans a game?ish?

[McNeeserocket]

mcneese im interested to see how u feel about playn us?.....im pretty worried about goin to lilweeziana 17000 fans a game?ish?

You will find most McNeese fans are knowledgeable football fans. McNeese fans know that the CAA is very strong conference and that your team beat Villanova this year and that you team has had success in recent playoff games.

We are respective of good teams like yours and believe McNeese will have to play mistake free football to compete with your team. We are anxious about playing your team, but we have seen our Cowboys play tough when we have to.

Come to Lake Charles for a good hard fought game and enjoy our tailgating before and after the game.

[Reign of Terrier]

either App or Richmond IMO

[putter]

I really think that both EWU and Weber have better than average changes to win on the road....if they both come to play. xbowx

[Screamin_Eagle174]

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2766/4126471837_c5d04da3bc_o.gif

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2702/4126744956_1644d8fee0_o.gif

[Squealofthepig]

You will find most McNeese fans are knowledgable football fans. McNeese fans know that the CAA is very strong conference and that your team beat Villanova this year and that you team has had success in recent playoff games.

We are respective of good teams like yours and believe McNeese will have to play mistake free football to compete with your team. We are anxious about playing your team, but we have seen our Cowboys play tough when we have to.

Come to Lake Charles for a good hard fought game and enjoy our tailgating before and after the game.

McNeese is just a great place to go for an FCS playoff game. The fanbase is knowledgeable, the venue is energetic but respectful - McNeese has a LONG history in the playoffs, and I don't think you'll find many fans who were upset who traveled there. They're not mindless homers and you'll find a great place to visit if you head down to the bayou.

[Bettina90]

That BSC fans are thinking Weber will upset W&M is hilarious. Just picking the hard-luck loser in the CAA South vs their brethren? W&M will beat Weber down and hard. I will take the under on Weber scoring 14 points.


34-13 Tribe.

[MR. CHICKEN]

AWK!

[Squealofthepig]

That BSC fans are thinking Weber will upset W&M is hilarious. Just picking the hard-luck loser in the CAA South vs their brethren? W&M will beat Weber down and hard. I will take the under on Weber scoring 14 points.


34-13 Tribe.

Dude, most likely upset, not sure thing. You can't get upset by BSC fans thinking they have a good shot here at what they would consider an upset. I'll be the first to say it's a hard thing to gauge, as there are not any common opponents. I'd still take William & Mary, but I'll also say Weber can be very dangerous. If it's the Weber team that showed up in Missoula, I think the Tribe rolls. If the Ogden boys play at their best, though, this should be a VERY fun game to watch. I'd still bet cash on W&M, but it should be a fun match-up.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

That BSC fans are thinking Weber will upset W&M is hilarious. Just picking the hard-luck loser in the CAA South vs their brethren? W&M will beat Weber down and hard. I will take the under on Weber scoring 14 points.


34-13 Tribe.

xlolx

Few CAA teams have faced offenses like those in the Sky. Weber, like EWU, has a LOT of threats offensively. Three of the top-10 offenses in the country, are Big Sky Teams, with Weber coming in just outside at 13. I'll take the over on Weber scoring 14 for days son.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2702/4126744956_1644d8fee0_o.gif

[GrizNzonecrazy]

I'll take the overs on Weber putting up at least 24 and Higgins will throw for over 300. Toone will have 100+ and so will Trevyn Smith......gonna be a big day for the Weebs

[SDSUJacks]

Weber or McNeese. Not being a homer, but I also think SDSU has a decent shot against Montana, though I'm not holding my breath.

[Head Cat]

Montana is going down.

[Squealofthepig]

Weber or McNeese. Not being a homer, but I also think SDSU has a decent shot against Montana, though I'm not holding my breath.

I'll agree on that. I like the Jackrabbit team. I certainly don't discount them; if they play like they did vs. SIU, I'll look forward to week #2. But I think they make a heckuva game out of this - it's certainly no cakewalk!

[Bettina90]

xlolx

Few CAA teams have faced offenses like those in the Sky. Weber, like EWU, has a LOT of threats offensively. Three of the top-10 offenses in the country, are Big Sky Teams, with Weber coming in just outside at 13. I'll take the over on Weber scoring 14 for days son.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2702/4126744956_1644d8fee0_o.gif



Yeah, we learned about those great offenses in the Championship game last year. Weber is going to learn what it's like to have ZERO time to throw the ball, like Richmond did last Saturday. It's also hilarious how BSC fans don't realize the difference a defense with at least marginal NFL caliber players, in particular D-Linemen, can make.

W&M's D-Line may be better than Richmond's last year, which wrecked Montana/Fraud.

[Prominentwon]

McNeese fans are great sandbaggers. I heard this the week before ASU, is your RB 100%?

Sandbaggers??? Whatever do you mean????

Todd Pendland is healthy. But he may be a little too small to play with the big boys. Just look at tiny he is!!.....Size is definitely a disadvantage.....





http://www.geauxcowboys-eastside.org/images/sam09g22td22.jpg

[McNeese72]

xeekx Us????????? :D Pendland appears to be just fine.

Might as well tell them the truth, we don't have a chance in hell in this game. ;)

Doc

[soccerguy315]

I'll take the overs on Weber putting up at least 24 and Higgins will throw for over 300. Toone will have 100+ and so will Trevyn Smith......gonna be a big day for the Weebs

Weber's RB is not going to run for 100 yards. Let me list the teams that have put up 24 or more points on W&M this year: Villanova. Not a long list.

[TxState_GO_CATS!]

EWU over SFA.:(

[ElonAlum]

I think Elon actually has a good chance of shocking Richmond. Elon has no pressure becaues they arent supposed to win and every one wrote them off with the loss to App St. They are a VERY dangerous team.

[McNeese72]

Sandbaggers??? Whatever do you mean????

Todd Pendland is healthy. But he may be a little too small to play with the big boys. Just look at tiny he is!!.....Size is definitely a disadvantage.....





http://www.geauxcowboys-eastside.org/images/sam09g22td22.jpg

Yes, he is so small, please don't hurt him.

http://www.geauxcowboys-eastside.org/images/uca09g22run3.jpg

Doc

[Bettina90]

I agree with ElonAlum, I think Richmond wins the game but Elon has a shot. Richmond has some holes.


But Weber State will get worked, I would rather see them come to City Stadium.

[BlackNGold]

GO ELON! (atleast this week)

[ngineer]

I agree on the Elon possibility. Lembo has a lot of playoff experience as both asst. and hc at Lehigh, including a win at Richmond back in 1998. I will also not be shocked to see SDSt. pull off an upset.

[SoDakState]

App State possibly..and again not bein a homer but SDSU has a good shot at Montana

[ElonAlum]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

[soccerguy315]

I think SDSU has the best shot to upset a seed. I say that more as thinking Montana drew the toughest first round game for a seed (but potentially the easiest 2nd round game).

I don't think UR or Nova or SIU's opponents are as good as SDSU.

I am not really clear who the "favorites" are of the other 4 games, so I can't really pick an upset.

[Applete]

xlolx

Few CAA teams have faced offenses like those in the Sky. Weber, like EWU, has a LOT of threats offensively. Three of the top-10 offenses in the country, are Big Sky Teams, with Weber coming in just outside at 13. I'll take the over on Weber scoring 14 for days son.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2702/4126744956_1644d8fee0_o.gif


Kinda like last years Championship game? If I was the Big Sky I'd be "offended" too. xlolx Sorry couldn't resist.

[putter]

True App, I really think Montana abandoned the run too early last year which allowed Sidbury to really pin his ears back and wreak havoc against the Griz. EWU and Weber have solid offenses and through the power of Dish have been able to watch W&M a couple of times this year. They are a solid team but IMO Weber will be able to move the ball against them. They may not win but I don't think they will get blown out (unless they play like they did against Montana)

[art vandelay]

Home teams are not the favorites. I actually believe that UNH is the favorite in this game. I would say if McNeese wins it would be an upset.

interesting point. I wonder who is the underdog. Being a UNH alum I know who I will be pulling for. should be fun.

[FCS Go!]

Presuming that the following teams are the favorites in their matchups, in order of most likely to least likely:

Stephen F Austin
McNeese St
App St
Montana
W & M
Richmond
S. Illinois
Villanova

[GrizNzonecrazy]

i wouldnt be so sure that SFA will be a favorite over EWU.....Eastern is a tough team.....got a top 5 FCS QB that can straight up play

[seattlespider]

I watched the EWU game vs NAU and their offense is no joke. Their defense was ridiculously bad (in part b/c EWU scored in like 2 minutes it seemed), so that will definitely need to be shored up.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I watched the EWU game vs NAU and their offense is no joke. Their defense was ridiculously bad (in part b/c EWU scored in like 2 minutes it seemed), so that will definitely need to be shored up.

We scored too quickly, which led to our D being on the field 36 minutes... at 7000 ft. xnutsx

We also had to respect the run because of Alex Henderson (top-10 FCS RB), which allowed NAU to further exploit our secondary. SFA on the otherhand doesn't have much of a ground game to speak of, and rely on the arm of Moses, which will allow us to key in on the pass and prevent the big plays. Running around at 302 ft. will also be a million times easier after the workout we got in Flagstaff.

Going by the GPI, EWU is the favorite.

I'll take my Eagles 45 - 31. xthumbsupx

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[paward]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

Fact Check.org need to get on this one.

[FL connection]

[QUOTE=FCS Go!;1474274]Presuming that the following teams are the favorites in their matchups, in order of most likely to least likely:

Stephen F Austin
McNeese St
App St
Montana
W & M
Richmond
S. Illinois
Villanova[/QUOTE





..............so, you think there's a chance

[gophoenix]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

Uhm, no we didn't.

[Native]

Yeah, we learned about those great offenses in the Championship game last year. Weber is going to learn what it's like to have ZERO time to throw the ball, like Richmond did last Saturday. It's also hilarious how BSC fans don't realize the difference a defense with at least marginal NFL caliber players, in particular D-Linemen, can make.

W&M's D-Line may be better than Richmond's last year, which wrecked Montana/Fraud.

Naw, Weber respects your defense, especially the line. Coach Mac has put a few of his own in the league, from both Utah and Weber, and they tend to be linemen.

Cameron Higgins and the hogs have faced defenses the equal of W&M's and managed to post a few yards and touchdowns. Cam's a bit of a gambler, so sometimes he throws snake eyes, but more often than not, he hits his numbers. He hit three TD strikes versus Utah last year, and three against Wyoming this year. The Cowboys are probably the defense most similar to the Tribe's, with an outstanding D-Line and linebacker corps but a vulnerable defensive secondary. The 'Cats managed 411 yards at Wyoming, including 322 in the air, something to which the W&M defense is not accustomed.

Weber wrecked Montana last year, too, by the same margin as did Richmond.

Win or lose, it won't be the same old same old in Williamsburg this week.

[appmaj]

EWU

[Native]

Sagarin "predictor" ratings for the first round, based on the 22 November ratings:

Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois 18.41
Weber State at William & Mary 10.52
South Dakota St at Montana -0.9
Holy Cross at Villanova 25.07
SC State at App State 11.02
E Washington at SFA -1.44
UNH at McNeese -2.94
Elon at Richmond 11.91

[MacThor]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

Huh?

[Eight Legger]

Elon DID beat Richmond 28-2 in the number of players rolling around with cramps during the game I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D


Fixed it.

[bluehenbillk]

I think one quarterfinal match-up we won't see is.... App State at Richmond.

[89Hen]

How are more people not picking EWU over SFA??? CLEARLY the most likely "upset". xrulesx

[GolfingGriz]

How are more people not picking EWU over SFA??? CLEARLY the most likely "upset". xrulesx

I think you answered your own question by puting upset in quotation marks.

[sharkeycox]

Might as well tell them the truth, we don't have a chance in hell in this game. ;)

Doc

Your right Doc. I do not know how the hell we made it to the playoffs! xoopsx

[AllForAppState]

I think Elon actually has a good chance of shocking Richmond. Elon has no pressure becaues they arent supposed to win and every one wrote them off with the loss to App St. They are a VERY dangerous team.

If they can keep Hudgins on the field for back-to-back plays they have a chance to be dangerous. They also need to establish a ground game in order for Riddle to be more effective, otherwise, he'll be punting more than passing...I think Elon is tough, but they need some offensive variety other than Riddle to Hudgins, Riddle to Hudgins, Riddle to Hudgins...you get my point...I'd love to see them win, though!

[GolfingGriz]

If they can keep Hudgins on the field for back-to-back plays they have a chance to be dangerous. They also need to establish a ground game in order for Riddle to be more effective, otherwise, he'll be punting more than passing...I think Elon is tough, but they need some offensive variety other than Riddle to Hudgins, Riddle to Hudgins, Riddle to Hudgins...you get my point...I'd love to see them win, though!

Take it from a Montana fan, you must keep Richmond honest. Even if that means running it up the middle for two yards everytime. In the Brawl Montana rushed 48 times for only 95 yards, but it kept the cats honest. It opened up the passing game for 270 yards and 4 TDs. Run the ball, keep them honest, and pull the upset!xnodx

[Bettina90]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D



Hmmm, I'm thinking you may want to go back and review what actually took place that game.

[UncleSam]

Best chance for an upset

South Dakota St over Montana

[wr70beh]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

What game were you watching? :D

http://www.richmondspiders.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2008-2009/urelon.html

[MacThor]

What game were you watching? :D

http://www.richmondspiders.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2008-2009/urelon.html

Apparently, just the second quarter.

[CID1990]

If Richmond does not get anyone in Riddle's face, Elon will win that game. If Richmond does pressure Riddle it is going to be a blowout by Richmond.

I am also a little worried about ASU. SC State has a good squad and ASU's defense sometimes doesn't show up. AE needs to have a good day.

[FormerPokeCenter]

Your right Doc. I do not know how the hell we made it to the playoffs! xoopsx

No doubt. I had such high hopes for this team after the App State game. But after watching the debacles against Tulane and SFA, then seeing how we struggled mightily against SELA, UCA and Texas State, I'm worried about us living up to our "One and Done" nickname yet again...

I hope SFA is able to take care of EWU, or else the SLC could be watching the rest of the dance from the sidelines, yet AGAIN.

[Elon Fightin' Christians]

Uhm, no we didn't.

Yeah....... we PLAYED Richmond and they pretty much took it to us.

[ElonPride]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

xsmhx

Close game at the half, beaten the "cramp" out of in the 2nd.

[Ivytalk]

SFA

[Eight Legger]

Take it from a Montana fan, you must keep Richmond honest. Even if that means running it up the middle for two yards everytime. In the Brawl Montana rushed 48 times for only 95 yards, but it kept the cats honest. It opened up the passing game for 270 yards and 4 TDs. Run the ball, keep them honest, and pull the upset!xnodx

Good luck with that.

[PhoenixMan]

Fact Check.org need to get on this one.

28-10 Spiders was the score in that one.

[appirishmen]

Elon DID beat Richmond I believe last year for our opener at Rhodes Stadium :D

August 30 Richmond L 28-10

via espn. haha yea right. I think Elon has a small shot if they can protect Riddle. If they play like they did against App... UR will have a bunch of sacks. Riddle us really good..unless you put pressure on him.

[appirishmen]

I think one quarterfinal match-up we won't see is.... App State at Richmond.

because UR is going to lose right? xrotatehxxnodxxrotatehx

[ElonAlum]

xoopsxxbowx



Good catch guys!




(walks out of room quietly) :o

[Poker Alan]

SC St
SD St (gulp!)

[GrizGrowler]

I think people are forgetful of how upset prone Big Sky Conference teams have been in the past. Eastern Washington has always been a dangerous team in the playoff's. Weber, just last year, went into California and Knocked of a Poly team that was as talented as anyone in the field. Montana St has played good teams well in the past. Not to mention Montana who is usually favored in almost every game they have played in the last 10 years, went to JMU and knocked off the #1 team. Personally I will be more surprised if W&M win's than if Weber does. I don't think you guy's out east realize what your getting into with the WildCat's. Cameron Higgin's could light 'em up for 400 yards and 4 touchdown's without breaking a sweat.

[SCSUBULLDOG1]

App. App. App

Revenge revenge revenge

Payback Payback Payback

[Silenoz]

Here is the upsets in order of probability (IMO of course):

1) Eastern Washington
2) New Hampshire
3) Elon
4) South Dakota State
5) Weber State
6) South Carolina State
7) Holy Cross
8) Eastern Illinois

[crusader11]

My head tells me Eastern Washington has the best shot...my heart says Holy Cross. I'll go with my ticker.

[TypicalTribe]

Most to least:

EWU/SFA - Tossup, hard to call an upset either way
UNH/McNeese - Tough venue, but UNH is no stranger to that
Weber/Tribe - Best chance for a true upset
SDSU/UM - Hard to see the playoff newcomers winning at WA-Griz
SCSU/ASU - Expect similar to last year with Armanti & Co. rolling
Elon/UR - Spiders too physical for the Phoenix
HC/Nova - Playmaking QB still not enough to beat the Cats
EIU/SIU - Snowball/Hell

A little more on the Weber/W&M game. The wildcard in this matchup is travel to me. As in, when does Weber make the trip and how does that affect their preparation? Tough to travel on Friday and then play what amounts to a morning game coming from Utah. But, hard to imagine travelling on Thursday and basically missing Thanksgiving in transit. Going to make for a difficult week for WSU because of that. Will be interesting to see.

[GolfingGriz]

Good luck with that.

Read my post. I didn't say the runs had to go anywhere, but if you abandon the run against a very good defense then game over. Montana would have had a better chance if they wouldn't have panicked when they fell behind 21-0 in the chipper last year. We stopped running the ball, and ultimately ended our chance of winning that game.

[GolfingGriz]

Most to least:

EWU/SFA - Tossup, hard to call an upset either way
UNH/McNeese - Tough venue, but UNH is no stranger to that
Weber/Tribe - Best chance for a true upset
SDSU/UM - Hard to see the playoff newcomers winning at WA-Griz
SCSU/ASU - Expect similar to last year with Armanti & Co. rolling
Elon/UR - Spiders too physical for the Phoenix
HC/Nova - Playmaking QB still not enough to beat the Cats
EIU/SIU - Snowball/Hell

A little more on the Weber/W&M game. The wildcard in this matchup is travel to me. As in, when does Weber make the trip and how does that affect their preparation? Tough to travel on Friday and then play what amounts to a morning game coming from Utah. But, hard to imagine travelling on Thursday and basically missing Thanksgiving in transit. Going to make for a difficult week for WSU because of that. Will be interesting to see.

Good breakdown of the games. Its tough to call either of the first two an upset, but the others certainly would be.

As far as the travel goes, I could see it really effecting Weber. Considering that Utah is basically in the middle of the BSC, theyre trips probably aren't too difficult on the team. Maybe a Weber fan can add to this, but other than their Hawaii trip last year this has got to be one of their longest trips ever.

[AshevilleApp]

If Richmond does not get anyone in Riddle's face, Elon will win that game. If Richmond does pressure Riddle it is going to be a blowout by Richmond.

I am also a little worried about ASU. SC State has a good squad and ASU's defense sometimes doesn't show up. AE needs to have a good day.

The Defense did not show up in the McNeese game but lately we've plugged the holes in the run defense and as long as we can get to the passer a throwing team will be hard pressed against our D - I'd be worried about either (a) a good passing team with good blocking ability or (b) a team that runs the screen really well.

ASU Defense Rushing Yards Allowed By Game
ECU - 189 yds
McNeese - 181 yds
Samford - 102 yds
Citadel - 214 yds
NCCU - 5 yds
Wofford - 384 yds
GSU - 15 yds
Furman - 185 yds
Chatty - 105 yds
Elon - 58 yds
Western - 70 yds

[89Hen]

Here is the upsets in order of probability (IMO of course):

1) Eastern Washington
2) New Hampshire
3) Elon
4) South Dakota State
5) Weber State
6) South Carolina State
7) Holy Cross
8) Eastern Illinois
I might flip Elon and Weber. xpeacex

[Silenoz]

Truthfully, I have never seen Elon play (ever), but I figure they had a terrible game at ASU, but a pretty sparkling FCS resume aside from that

[19Duke97]

Truthfully, I have never seen Elon play (ever), but I figure they had a terrible game at ASU, but a pretty sparkling FCS resume aside from that

Their schedule is a bit soft, and they have struggled against better competition
Date Opponent Time/Result Audio/Video
Sat, Sep 5 Davidson W 56-0 --
Sat, Sep 12 at Presbyterian W 41-7 --
Sat, Sep 19 at Wake Forest L 7-35 --
Sat, Sep 26 Georgia Southern W 28-14 --
Sat, Oct 3 at Furman W 19-12 --
Sat, Oct 10 Citadel W 43-7 --
Sat, Oct 24 Chattanooga W 45-10 --
Sat, Oct 31 at Wofford W 34-6 --
Sat, Nov 7 at Western Carolina W 42-17 --
Sat, Nov 14 Appalachian State L 10-27 --
Sat, Nov 21 at Samford W 27-7 --
Sat, Nov 28 at Richmond 1:00 pm --
Richmond will be as good a team they have played all year, including WF and ASU. They will need to step it up to win this game. IMO

[Owl Wingman]

I think its gotta be SDSU over Montana. Montana, in no way shape or form, should've gotten the No. 1 seed this year.

[Pard4Life]

Jackrabbits jack the Griz! This match-up should not be a first round game.

[Native]

I think Elon actually has a good chance of shocking Richmond. Elon has no pressure becaues they arent supposed to win and every one wrote them off with the loss to App St. They are a VERY dangerous team.

Utilizing this week's Sagarin "predictor" ratings, Richmond is favored by 11.91 points.

[Native]

i wouldnt be so sure that SFA will be a favorite over EWU.....Eastern is a tough team.....got a top 5 FCS QB that can straight up play

Even on the road, Eastern Washington is indeed a 1.44 point favorite, using this week's Sagarin "predictor" scores.

[clawman]

Most to least:

EWU/SFA - Tossup, hard to call an upset either way
UNH/McNeese - Tough venue, but UNH is no stranger to that
Weber/Tribe - Best chance for a true upset
SDSU/UM - Hard to see the playoff newcomers winning at WA-Griz
SCSU/ASU - Expect similar to last year with Armanti & Co. rolling
Elon/UR - Spiders too physical for the Phoenix
HC/Nova - Playmaking QB still not enough to beat the Cats
EIU/SIU - Snowball/Hell

A little more on the Weber/W&M game. The wildcard in this matchup is travel to me. As in, when does Weber make the trip and how does that affect their preparation? Tough to travel on Friday and then play what amounts to a morning game coming from Utah. But, hard to imagine travelling on Thursday and basically missing Thanksgiving in transit. Going to make for a difficult week for WSU because of that. Will be interesting to see.
Don't overlook the McBride factor. Ron is a very seasoned coach that adds a few point to the scoreboard with his experience in these situations.

[Poker Alan]

Most to least:

EWU/SFA - Tossup, hard to call an upset either way
UNH/McNeese - Tough venue, but UNH is no stranger to that
Weber/Tribe - Best chance for a true upset
SDSU/UM - Hard to see the playoff newcomers winning at WA-Griz
SCSU/ASU - Expect similar to last year with Armanti & Co. rolling
Elon/UR - Spiders too physical for the Phoenix
HC/Nova - Playmaking QB still not enough to beat the Cats
EIU/SIU - Snowball/Hell

A little more on the Weber/W&M game. The wildcard in this matchup is travel to me. As in, when does Weber make the trip and how does that affect their preparation? Tough to travel on Friday and then play what amounts to a morning game coming from Utah. But, hard to imagine travelling on Thursday and basically missing Thanksgiving in transit. Going to make for a difficult week for WSU because of that. Will be interesting to see.

Excellent point on the travel, pardon my ignorance, but what is the closest large airport to W&M? Weber does have in its favor that it will fly out of SLC, a major airport hub in the western US, hopefully won't take many connections. I would have to think that Thanksgiving may have to be sacrificed, at least partially... has to be hard to fly on the Friday after Turkey day, already, with flights being booked for so long now...

[MacThor]

Excellent point on the travel, pardon my ignorance, but what is the closest large airport to W&M? Weber does have in its favor that it will fly out of SLC, a major airport hub in the western US, hopefully won't take many connections. I would have to think that Thanksgiving may have to be sacrificed, at least partially... has to be hard to fly on the Friday after Turkey day, already, with flights being booked for so long now...

It's one stop to PHF (Newport News/Williamsburg) or RIC (Richmond).

[GrizFamily]

Sagarin "predictor" ratings for the first round, based on the 22 November ratings:

Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois 18.41
Weber State at William & Mary 10.52
South Dakota St at Montana -0.9
Holy Cross at Villanova 25.07
SC State at App State 11.02
E Washington at SFA -1.44
UNH at McNeese -2.94
Elon at Richmond 11.91

South Dakota St at Montana -0.9
So does that mean if the Griz win, it's an upset?

[19Duke97]

Excellent point on the travel, pardon my ignorance, but what is the closest large airport to W&M? Weber does have in its favor that it will fly out of SLC, a major airport hub in the western US, hopefully won't take many connections. I would have to think that Thanksgiving may have to be sacrificed, at least partially... has to be hard to fly on the Friday after Turkey day, already, with flights being booked for so long now...

Prob Norfolk. There are closer ones like Newport News, but they are tiny. not sure whaich is closer - Richmond or Norfolk. Any way you do it, if you are coming out of Bozeman, you'll prob connect through Chicago or Dallas or (ugh) Detroit.

[Poker Alan]

South Dakota St at Montana -0.9
So does that mean if the Griz win, it's an upset?

Yes!

[clawman]

Excellent point on the travel, pardon my ignorance, but what is the closest large airport to W&M? Weber does have in its favor that it will fly out of SLC, a major airport hub in the western US, hopefully won't take many connections. I would have to think that Thanksgiving may have to be sacrificed, at least partially... has to be hard to fly on the Friday after Turkey day, already, with flights being booked for so long now...

In years past the NCAA has sent a charter jet to make a direct flight to the closest airport. Is that still the case??

[Poker Alan]

Prob Norfolk. There are closer ones like Newport News, but they are tiny. not sure whaich is closer - Richmond or Norfolk. Any way you do it, if you are coming out of Bozeman, you'll prob connect through Chicago or Dallas.

You missed my post, this was regarding Weber St, that will fly out of Salt Lake City...

[19Duke97]

You missed my post, this was regarding Weber St, that will fly out of Salt Lake City...

Ack, yeah sorry missed that. Still will require a hop, but RIC or NOR most likely, Newport News would prob require a second stop.

[Silenoz]

Their schedule is a bit soft, and they have struggled against better competition
Date Opponent Time/Result Audio/Video
Sat, Sep 5 Davidson W 56-0 --
Sat, Sep 12 at Presbyterian W 41-7 --
Sat, Sep 19 at Wake Forest L 7-35 --
Sat, Sep 26 Georgia Southern W 28-14 --
Sat, Oct 3 at Furman W 19-12 --
Sat, Oct 10 Citadel W 43-7 --
Sat, Oct 24 Chattanooga W 45-10 --
Sat, Oct 31 at Wofford W 34-6 --
Sat, Nov 7 at Western Carolina W 42-17 --
Sat, Nov 14 Appalachian State L 10-27 --
Sat, Nov 21 at Samford W 27-7 --
Sat, Nov 28 at Richmond 1:00 pm --
Richmond will be as good a team they have played all year, including WF and ASU. They will need to step it up to win this game. IMO
The Southern is down for sure. Still, I wouldn't doubt that they give Richmond trouble

[ASU_MBA]

Their schedule is a bit soft, and they have struggled against better competition
Date Opponent Time/Result Audio/Video
Sat, Sep 5 Davidson W 56-0 --
Sat, Sep 12 at Presbyterian W 41-7 --
Sat, Sep 19 at Wake Forest L 7-35 --
Sat, Sep 26 Georgia Southern W 28-14 --
Sat, Oct 3 at Furman W 19-12 --
Sat, Oct 10 Citadel W 43-7 --
Sat, Oct 24 Chattanooga W 45-10 --
Sat, Oct 31 at Wofford W 34-6 --
Sat, Nov 7 at Western Carolina W 42-17 --
Sat, Nov 14 Appalachian State L 10-27 --
Sat, Nov 21 at Samford W 27-7 --
Sat, Nov 28 at Richmond 1:00 pm --
Richmond will be as good a team they have played all year, including WF and ASU. They will need to step it up to win this game. IMO


I think to beat Elon
1) you need a great offense which I don't think Richmond does...
2)put pressure on Riddle and he folds like a card table....i think Richmond can do that.....but......

I still like Elon in this game....their D is solid and if it gets to a shootout I like Elon's chances....

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I think its gotta be SDSU over Montana. Montana, in no way shape or form, should've gotten the No. 1 seed this year.

11-0 will breed a lot of jealousy... xcoffeex

[HLNgriz]

Jackrabbits jack the Griz! This match-up should not be a first round game.

Thats what we thought about Wofford and look what happenedxthumbsdownx

Griz have a lot of respect for Wofford coach and team. I just do not see a upset this weekend in WaGrizxnodx

[GrizFamily]

Thats what we thought about Wofford and look what happenedxthumbsdownx

Griz have a lot of respect for Wofford coach and team. I just do not see a upset this weekend in WaGrizxnodx

Ya, but to be fair we didn't see that one coming either, until Carps sailed one wide right. Worst feeling ever leaving the WaGriz that day. Cept for maybe when we lost to UD 49-48 on a missed PAT.

[appstate38]

Yep there will be 8 new homeowners in Crapsville after Saturday..... I think there may be some obivious ones in the minds of some but to be honest it could be any one of the field of 16. Just depends on who gets hot and who is not.

[Houndawg]

South Dakota St at Montana -0.9
So does that mean if the Griz win, it's an upset?

Huh? xconfusedx

You tryin' to tell me that the #1 seed isn't favored?xeyebrowx

[AshevilleApp]

FWIW:
FCS Offensive Rank of 16 Playoff Teams
02 - App State
03 - SFA
04 - Eastern Washington
05 - McNeese State
07 - Holy Cross
08 - Elon
09 - Montana
13 - Weber State
15 - SIU
28 - SC State
32 - Villanova
36 - William & Mary
46 - UNH
49 - Richmond
57 - S. Dakota State
75 - Eastern Illinois

FCS Defensive Rank of 16 Playoff Teams
02 - Elon
03 - William & Mary
04 - SC State
10 - Richmond
16 - S. Dakota State
23 - Eastern Illinois
31 - UNH
32 - SFA
36 - Villanova
39 - App State
50 - SIU
58 - Montana
64 - McNeese State
79 - Weber State
83 - Holy Cross
109 - Eastern Washington

[89Hen]

FCS Defensive Rank of 16 Playoff Teams
02 - Elon
03 - William & Mary
04 - SC State
10 - Richmond
16 - S. Dakota State
23 - Eastern Illinois
31 - UNH
32 - SFA
36 - Villanova
39 - App State
50 - SIU
58 - Montana
64 - McNeese State
79 - Weber State
83 - Holy Cross
109 - Eastern Washington
What, they don't play defense in the Big Sky? xeyebrowx

[GrizNzonecrazy]

FWIW:
FCS Offensive Rank of 16 Playoff Teams
02 - App State
03 - SFA
04 - Eastern Washington
05 - McNeese State
07 - Holy Cross
08 - Elon
09 - Montana
13 - Weber State
15 - SIU
28 - SC State
32 - Villanova
36 - William & Mary
46 - UNH
49 - Richmond
57 - S. Dakota State
75 - Eastern Illinois



What, they don't play defense in the Big Sky? xeyebrowx

no they just play a lot of offense in the big sky......xnonox

[Tailbone]

What, they don't play defense in the Big Sky? xeyebrowx

Nope.
And apparently they don't have any offense in the CAA.

[crossfire07]

McNeese fans are great sandbaggers. I heard this the week before ASU, is your RB 100%?

was no sandbagging before the ASU game. we all went with what we knew we had. a new offensive line and basiclly a new defense with so few returning starters. we had not and would not play anybody to test what we had before the App game.

[GrizFamily]

Huh? xconfusedx

You tryin' to tell me that the #1 seed isn't favored?xeyebrowx

So says Mr. Sagarin. So, since that is the case I agree with the posters who are saying that Montana is the most likely to get the "upset" this weekend. xeekxxsmiley_wixxeyebrowxxnodx

[GolfingGriz]

FWIW:
FCS Offensive Rank of 16 Playoff Teams
02 - App State
03 - SFA
04 - Eastern Washington
05 - McNeese State
07 - Holy Cross
08 - Elon
09 - Montana
13 - Weber State
15 - SIU
28 - SC State
32 - Villanova
36 - William & Mary
46 - UNH
49 - Richmond
57 - S. Dakota State
75 - Eastern Illinois

FCS Defensive Rank of 16 Playoff Teams
02 - Elon
03 - William & Mary
04 - SC State
10 - Richmond
16 - S. Dakota State
23 - Eastern Illinois
31 - UNH
32 - SFA
36 - Villanova
39 - App State
50 - SIU
58 - Montana
64 - McNeese State
79 - Weber State
83 - Holy Cross
109 - Eastern Washington

This should be done based on points. You don't win games by gaining more yards.

[89Hen]

Nope.
And apparently they don't have any offense in the CAA.
Don't need much when you hold your opponents.

[GrizNzonecrazy]

Don't need much when your opponents dont have any offense either.

Fixed it for ya.....

[AshevilleApp]

This should be done based on points. You don't win games by gaining more yards.

Hence the FWIW......but since you asked

FCS Playoff Team Rank: Scoring Offense
01 - SFA
02 - McNeese State
03 - App State
05 - SIU
08 - Montana
09 - Eastern Washington
14 - Holy Cross
14 - UNH
16 - SC State
16 - Elon
20 - Villanova
22 - Richmond
25 - Weber State
40 - William & Mary
42 - S. Dakota State
47 - Eastern Illinois

FCS Playoff Teams: Scoring Defense
02 - Elon
02 - Villanova
05 - S. Dakota State
07 - William & Mary
08 - Richmond
09 - SC State
11 - SIU
19 - Montana
21 - Eastern Illinois
27 - SFA
30 - UNH
32 - Weber State
48 - Holy Cross
54 - App State
64 - McNeese State
70 - Eastern Washington

[JohnStOnge]

McNeese fans are great sandbaggers. I heard this the week before ASU, is your RB 100%?

UNH is the favorite by power ratings and I'm confident that if somebody looks up any lines on this game on sites that do that for FCS UNH will be the favorite there too. Sagarin has it at UNH -3. If you go by the average rankings at http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm UNH is 8th and McNeese is 16th. If you go by the GPI thing as of last week UNH was 9th and McNeese 15h. The Cowboys have been blown out in their last three playoff appearances, even when they entered as high seeds on two occasions. UNH is from a much stronger conference. McNeese is clearly the underdog. I don't think they look to be near as much of an underdog as they looked to be going into the App State game, but they're still defintely the underdog.

As of the end of the last game running back Toderick Pendland appeared to be either at or very near 100%.

I'm not giving up hope or anything. You never know what's going to happen. But if I'm using my head and not my heart I realize this is a very tall task for McNeese.

[GolfingGriz]

Thanks asheville.

[crossfire07]

I'm not giving up hope or anything. You never know what's going to happen. But if I'm using my head and not my heart I realize this is a very tall task for McNeese.

your right. you never know what is going to happen. that is why I made the trip to App State for the opening of their new place and watched an upset. I picked up my tickets today and I'm ready.

[CrunchGriz]

Hence the FWIW......but since you asked

FCS Playoff Team Rank: Scoring Offense
01 - SFA
02 - McNeese State
03 - App State
05 - SIU
08 - Montana
09 - Eastern Washington
14 - Holy Cross
14 - UNH
16 - SC State
16 - Elon
20 - Villanova
22 - Richmond
25 - Weber State
40 - William & Mary
42 - S. Dakota State
47 - Eastern Illinois

FCS Playoff Teams: Scoring Defense
02 - Elon
02 - Villanova
05 - S. Dakota State
07 - William & Mary
08 - Richmond
09 - SC State
11 - SIU
19 - Montana
21 - Eastern Illinois
27 - SFA
30 - UNH
32 - Weber State
48 - Holy Cross
54 - App State
64 - McNeese State
70 - Eastern Washington

And here they all are, with combined offensive and defensive rankings (by fewest points given up and most points scored):

Rank Team
16 SIU
18 Elon
22 Villanova
25 SC State
27 Montana
28 SFA
30 Richmond
44 UNH
47 S. Dakota State
47 William & Mary
57 App State
57 Weber State
62 Holy Cross
66 McNeese State
68 Eastern Illinois
79 Eastern Washington

[JohnStOnge]

your right. you never know what is going to happen. that is why I made the trip to App State for the opening of their new place and watched an upset. I picked up my tickets today and I'm ready.

I'm ready too. In fact I kind of like the underdog role better. Like last time McNeese went into the game with Eastern Washington having not been even tested all year and knowing that if it won it was going to host the guys that beat Michigan. If the coaches have any sense at all they know their guys are the underdog in this case and they'll make sure the players know it too. And the coaches do have sense. Whatever else might happen, I do not expect McNeese to lose due to lack of focus or overconfidence.

[JohnStOnge]

Oh...I don't know about overall but among the seeds I think Montana got skewered the worst by drawing South Dakota State. Richmond drawing Elon was bad too but I'd pick Montana as getting the rawest deal among the seeds because if South Dakota State has the same kind of team it's had in the past I think they'll match up well with the Griz. If they have the kind of team they've had in the past they're very physical. And, obviously, the weather will be no problem for them. Plus I think it's obvious that they're very good.

[GoneTribal]

Nope.
And apparently they don't have any offense in the CAA.

its hard to have the best O's in the land when you constantly face the best D's....know what I'm sayin;)

[Green and Yellow]

SDSU over Montana. The Bunnies do not care about seeds they play tough and win a lot of games where they are out matched.

[09griz]

I think to beat Elon
1) you need a great offense which I don't think Richmond does...
2)put pressure on Riddle and he folds like a card table....i think Richmond can do that.....but......

I still like Elon in this game....their D is solid and if it gets to a shootout I like Elon's chances....

You are high.

[mlbowl]

SDSU over Montana. The Bunnies do not care about seeds they play tough and win a lot of games where they are out matched.

How many teams were they outmatched againstxconfusedx...and how many did they beat?

[Proud Griz Man]

Nope.
And apparently they don't have any offense in the CAA.

xsmileyclapxxsmileyclapxxlolxxlolxxlolxxsmileyclap xxsmileyclapxxsmileyclapx;);)

[appfan2008]

unfortunately app may be the most likely to be upset... also one of the most likely for a big win...

[B&G]

In order of likelihood...

1. EWU over SFA - these teams are pretty even but SFA is the home team thus it's an upset if they lose.

2. UNH over McNeese - same as #1. These are the two games that probably couldn't be considered upsets either way.

3. Weber over W&M - Odds are that one of the CAA teams will falter in the 1st round. This is an interesting matchup.

4. SDSU over Montana - I'm not sure that SDSU's wins have been that impressive. And Montana's best wins have been against teams that barely made it into the playoffs. One of these teams isn't the real deal.

5. Elon over Richmond - If this is to happen, Elon has to play a perfect game. Perhaps the Spiders kicking game comes back to haunt them.

6. SCSU over ASU - The Bulldogs made a valiant effort last season and they may have gotten better. Then again, ASU is playing their best defense in years right now. Maybe SCSU's familiarity helps them with the upset.

7. EIU over SIU - not gonna happen

8. HC over Nova - ditto

... basically these games are in tiers.

1-2: Not considered upsets
3-4: 50/50 chance
5-6: slightly longer odds but it could happen if things fall right
7-8: very unlikely

[DG Cowboy]

I guess the NCAA will make McNeese go on and play the game with UNH anyway.

[MaxASU'81]

How about playing in this "Down for sure" SoCon! See you in a couple of years....home and home!

[MaxASU'81]

the week we played you .....i think i recall you guys wanting to fire you defensive coordinator! ....but then some on our message board wanted to fire ours a few weeks later!

[AshevilleApp]

And here they all are, with combined offensive and defensive rankings (by fewest points given up and most points scored):

Rank Team
16 SIU
18 Elon
22 Villanova
25 SC State
27 Montana
28 SFA
30 Richmond
44 UNH
47 S. Dakota State
47 William & Mary
57 App State
57 Weber State
62 Holy Cross
66 McNeese State
68 Eastern Illinois
79 Eastern Washington

This is just adding the rankings??

Here is a list of point margin (AVG Points Scored - AVG Points Allowed). I'm ranking the teams here 1-16 since I do not have a true FCS list.
01 - SIU (19.55)
02 - Elon (19.01)
03 - Vilanova (18.91)
04 - SFA (17.82)
05 - SC State (16.82)
06 - Montana (16.64)
07 - Richmond (16.18)
08 - ASU (13.46)
09 - UNH (13.00)
10 - William & Mary (12.63)
11 - S. Dakota State (12.46)
12 - McNeese State (11.73)
13 - Holy Cross (10.64)
14 - Weber State (10.55)
15 - Eastern Washington (7.82)
16 - Eastern Illinois (6.18)

[B&G]

I guess the NCAA will make McNeese go on and play the game with UNH anyway.

xblahblahxxblahblahx

[SpidersSportsEditor]

Montana or App State, since I don't really consider the other close matchups "upsets" Montana is untested and App is untested, too. I think both teams will win, but if I had to pick an upset, those would be mine.

[AshevilleApp]

Montana or App State, since I don't really consider the other close matchups "upsets" Montana is untested and App is untested, too. I think both teams will win, but if I had to pick an upset, those would be mine.

Care to explain that??

[DG Cowboy]

How about playing in this "Down for sure" SoCon! See you in a couple of years....home and home!

Loving it! That and the Griz H and H can only make the Cowboys better.

I'll tell you this, if we don't adjust to UNH better than we did to EWU there will be a lot of rumblings in SW Louisiana. I still wake up in a cold sweat seeing EWU throwing 6-8 yard passes in the middle of the defense and then popping a RB for 5-6 yards for variety. Evidently the EWU QB isn't real religiously connected, cause I know he was praying for McNeese again.:o

[SpidersSportsEditor]

Care to explain that??

They haven't won any big games this season, except for the win over Elon, and Elon is a questionable "best win." AE is tested and they have playoff experience, but this year's team hasn't really been tested.

[Skjellyfetti]

They haven't won any big games this season, except for the win over Elon,

xconfusedx

[SpidersSportsEditor]

xconfusedx

Ok, I'll make it more clear. If your signature win is against an Elon team that has beaten NOONE, you haven't been tested IMO.

[AshevilleApp]

Ok, I'll make it more clear. If your signature win is against an Elon team that has beaten NOONE, you haven't been tested IMO.

Uh, McNeese tested us pretty hard......

[McNeese72]

Uh, McNeese tested us pretty hard......

Haven't you been paying attention? We, SFA, and the whole Southland Conference sucks. The shame of it, getting beat by a Southland team. :)

I guess we will show up and play the game with UNH even though we don't have a chance in hell of winning. ;)

Doc

[AllForAppState]

They haven't won any big games this season, except for the win over Elon, and Elon is a questionable "best win." AE is tested and they have playoff experience, but this year's team hasn't really been tested.

The seniors on this team were untested when they won their first of a few championships. A lot of these guys were on the team that beat Michigan, they went to Lousiana and played LSU (and were beaten badly), and they played ECU this year to start the season. Win or lose, you can't really say this team hasn't been tested. Jerry Moore will have this team ready to play, they know what they're getting as they played them last year, but the difference is they won't underestimate SCSU this year...

Three out of the last four years, App State has been the national champion...yes, the personnel has changed in certain areas, but this is a winning program and that hasn't changed.

[ElonAlum]

WOW! I LOVE how ignorant some CAA fans can be!


App IS battle tested! They beat the crap out of us and Elon IS a good team! We have steam rolled pretty much every one except for our two losses. We also played App AT Elon!

Oh and I forgot about McNeese! They are SUCH a bad team xrolleyesx

And dont forget the seniors who have WON two national championships!

[Skjellyfetti]

If your signature win is against an Elon team that has beaten NOONE, you haven't been tested IMO.

xconfusedx xlolx

And Richmond's signature win is against William and Mary. Elon and William and Mary are about 3 or 4 spots different in the polls. xlolx

If you beat a team ranked #6 = "HUGE VICTORY! WE'RE UNSTOPPABLE!!!"
If you beat a team ranked #9 = "TERRIBLE. INSIGNIFICANT VICTORY!"

xlolx

What a ****ing joke.

[soccerguy315]

The difference is W&M has an FBS win and a top 10 FCS win. And 2 loses to top 4 FCS teams.

Elon has... losses to the good teams it has played and wins against no one of note.

IMO App is the real deal this year and has as good a shot as any of the top 6 (I think the top 6 all have a shot). I'm not sold on Elon yet.

[SpidersSportsEditor]

xconfusedx xlolx

And Richmond's signature win is against William and Mary. Elon and William and Mary are about 3 or 4 spots different in the polls. xlolx

If you beat a team ranked #6 = "HUGE VICTORY! WE'RE UNSTOPPABLE!!!"
If you beat a team ranked #9 = "TERRIBLE. INSIGNIFICANT VICTORY!"

xlolx

What a ****ing joke.

Richmond also beat Duke, on the road. I'd say that's a bigger win than any on App or Elon's schedule and if you argue that, you're nuts. And, for the record, I think W&M would beat Elon soundly and would have a great chance to beat App St. I think App St. is a very very good team and I was not happy to see that we may have to play them in the second round, but that doesn't mean they played a lot of good teams during this regular season.

The SoCon was down. Everybody knows it. Both teams lost their BCS games. As I said before, both teams could end up doing well in the playoffs (well, App could do well, Elon could sneak an upset or two), but they haven't proven anything to me yet. Call me a CAA homer, but in my opinion, neither Elon nor App State has proven themselves against really good opponents yet this season. Luckily for them, both will get the chance.

[paytonlives]

So says Mr. Sagarin. So, since that is the case I agree with the posters who are saying that Montana is the most likely to get the "upset" this weekend. xeekxxsmiley_wixxeyebrowxxnodx

He is smokin...

Sagarin says

MONTANA 68.88
SD STATE 64.27
Total UM +4.5 then add 3 for homefeild and Griz

ARE A 7.5 Favorite according to Sagarin...

The dope was looking at Montana State

[espete]

He is smokin...

Sagarin says

MONTANA 68.88
SD STATE 64.27
Total UM +4.5 then add 3 for homefeild and Griz

ARE A 7.5 Favorite according to Sagarin...

The dope was looking at Montana State

When that was first posted he was using the PREDICTOR instead of the RATING

Rating Predictor
75 Montana AA = 68.88 63.39
93 South Dakota State AA = 64.27 67.41

so using the predictor SDSU is favored by 1.02

[uofmman1122]

When that was first posted he was using the PREDICTOR instead of the RATING

Rating Predictor
75 Montana AA = 68.88 63.39
93 South Dakota State AA = 64.27 67.41

so using the predictor SDSU is favored by 1.02But isn't predictor on a neutral field? xconfusedx

[B&G]

Montana or App State, since I don't really consider the other close matchups "upsets" Montana is untested and App is untested, too. I think both teams will win, but if I had to pick an upset, those would be mine.

If you want to say ASU doesn't have a marquee win, then that is fine. But to say we are untested? That is just plain incorrect. The fact is that we have played two teams in the playoffs and East Carolina. Sure you guys beat Duke. They're 5-6 and 5th in the ACC. Oh wait, make that 5th in the ACC Coastal. ECU is currently tops in Conference USA. So are we really untested? Or did you just use a poor choice of words? xchinscratchx

[espete]

But isn't predictor on a neutral field? xconfusedx

I don't know, all I know is he used predictor..

this is what the website says

In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games. The ELO-CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).

[AppyinVA]

I hate to say it but the two most likely upsets are SCSU over App State and SDSU over Montana.

[AppyinVA]

I am concerned that AE will be hurt again in the 1st half. We will then be without Coco or AE. If that happens, ASU will lose. Other teams know this and will try to exploit it.

[MTGrizzFan]

Weber over Bill and Mary

[Native]

But isn't predictor on a neutral field? xconfusedx

Each week Sagarin publishes an average home field advantage. In calculating the odds, whether you use the power ratings or the predictor ratings, you have to add the HA to the equation. This week the HA is 3.14.

[PhoenixMan]

Ok, I'll make it more clear. If your signature win is against an Elon team that has beaten NOONE, you haven't been tested IMO.

Most likely to get upset......I would have to say the Richmond Spiders. I wouldn't have said that earlier today, but I'm hoping that on some level their players have the same attitude as the UR fans I have seen on here. They have basically said that Elon sucks, and this one is in the bag.....good. I like that attitude. They think it's time to go ahead make reservations in Chatty on Dec. 18.

[Prominentwon]

I guess the NCAA will make McNeese go on and play the game with UNH anyway.

Yeah. Apparently App St. is one of the best teams in the playoffs yet no one remembers who beat them in Week 2. First opening home loss since 2000.

http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/bb117/prominentwon2/2qmnhuvjpg.gif

[Prominentwon]

.I would have to say the Richmond Spiders. I wouldn't have said that earlier today, but I'm hoping that on some level their players have the same attitude as the UR fans I have seen on here. They have basically said that Elon sucks, and this one is in the bag.....good. I like that attitude. They think it's time to go ahead make reservations in Chatty on Dec. 18.

Agreed. Seems to be the norm with these CAA fans.

[AppyinVA]

http://www.dailypress.com/news/wtkr-willaim-and-mary-queen,0,6280186.story

I think William and Mary's transgender homecoming queen is the most likely to be upset in the opening round. Ze sees the pile-up on the 50 and realizes ze is not a part of it. Ze becomes upset.

[B&G]

Most likely to get upset......I would have to say the Richmond Spiders. I wouldn't have said that earlier today, but I'm hoping that on some level their players have the same attitude as the UR fans I have seen on here. They have basically said that Elon sucks, and this one is in the bag.....good. I like that attitude. They think it's time to go ahead make reservations in Chatty on Dec. 18.

Man, I thought for a second you were going to go with the "I guess Elon shouldn't even bother to play the game" quip. Glad you didn't. That one is old hat. Anyway, I'm sure the players will take a Top 10 team very seriously even if their fanbase doesn't.

[MacThor]

Man, I thought for a second you were going to go with the "I guess Elon shouldn't even bother to play the game" quip. Glad you didn't. That one is old hat. Anyway, I'm sure the players will take a Top 10 team very seriously even if their fanbase doesn't.

Don't worry, McNulty. He's just being "touchy."

[Montana_Mojo]

My odds of an upset for each first round matchup, ranked from most likely to least likely...

1. EWU over SFA...Odds: 3/2
2. New Hampshire over McNeese...Odds: 1/2
3. South Dakota State over Montana...1/3
4. Weber State over W&M...Odds: 2/5
5. South Carolina St over App State...Odds: 1/4
6. Eastern Illinois over So. Illinois...Odds: 1/6
7. Elon over Richmond...Odds: 1/6
8. Holy Cross over Villanova...Odds: 1/16

[ThompsonThe]

Most likely to get upset......I would have to say the Richmond Spiders. I wouldn't have said that earlier today, but I'm hoping that on some level their players have the same attitude as the UR fans I have seen on here. They have basically said that Elon sucks, and this one is in the bag.....good. I like that attitude. They think it's time to go ahead make reservations in Chatty on Dec. 18.

Richmond fans "have the big head". They get by App State last year when Armanti can barely walk, win the NC and think that they are all gods.
They beat an ACC team that would have been an upset if they lost, and claim that they are so wonderful. Play an insular schedule in the CAA and do well. That doesn't necessaily mean anything because they are thinking the competition is good, but no one really knows.
When Elon beats the Spiders, what will your excuses be?
That Elon had a "lucky" game?

[MacThor]

Gotta love a post that uses "Armanti can barely walk" and "what will your excuses be" in the same breath.

[paul1978]

xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

[Tribe4SF]

Richmond fans "have the big head". They get by App State last year when Armanti can barely walk, win the NC and think that they are all gods.
They beat an ACC team that would have been an upset if they lost, and claim that they are so wonderful. Play an insular schedule in the CAA and do well. That doesn't necessaily mean anything because they are thinking the competition is good, but no one really knows.
When Elon beats the Spiders, what will your excuses be?
That Elon had a "lucky" game?

xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxsmileyclapxxsmileyclapxxsmile yclapxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

Top to bottom...inside to out...the funniest post of the young playoff season. Great work, Thompson!xthumbsupx

[srgrizizen]

Montana or App State, since I don't really consider the other close matchups "upsets" Montana is untested and App is untested, too. I think both teams will win, but if I had to pick an upset, those would be mine.

The reason Montana hasn't lost is that they haven't been tested. And the reason they haven't been tested is that they haven't lost. When they lose, and all but one playoff team will, THEN you can say they have been tested -- and flunked.
If by some miracle Montana pulls out the NC, then it will have to be because of a miraculously weak year when they could do so without having been tested.xlolxxlolxxlolx