Playoff Scenario - Last Guess

[Go Apps]

Stunning upsets highlight the action that helped clear the playoff picture - I am ready to declare my post season guess...

Seeds:
1-Villanova
2-Montana
3-S. Illinois
4-Richmond (but this could go to ASU) either way it will not change my predictions.


Rest of Field:

N Hampshire - at large
W&M - at large
SCSt - autobid
ASU- autobid
SFA - autobid
SDakSt - at large
E. Washington - at large
Elon - at large
Colgate - at large
Holy Cross - autobid
E. Illinois - autobid
McNeese St - at large

Again I think that ASU could take the #4 seed - but I will put in Richmond just based on rankings

1) Villanova
Holy Cross

Colgate @
N. Hampshire

W&M @
ASU

Elon
4) Richmond - Again can switch the seed for ASU and Richmond- pod stays same



2) Montana
South Dakota St.

E. Washington @
McNeese St.

SFA @
South Carolina St.

E. Illinois
3) S. Illinois

[art vandelay]

if Colgate got in I doubt UNH would travel to them.

[Go...gate]

Colgate would be on the road no matter what.

[mlbowl]

Southland Conference with 2 autobids....nice!

[KiddBrewer]

if app were the 4 seed, they wouldnt play elon first round

[PhoenixSupreme]

I would switch the places of the ASU/W&M, Colgate/UNH, and the SFA/SCSt. games in the bracket...not the teams in the games, but just the games. I really can't see all 4 CAA teams on the same side of the bracket, and I can't see a potential PL/PL matchup, or a SoCon/SoCon matchup in the 2nd round, along with the two CAA/CAA matchups on that side either.

[seattlespider]

I would switch the places of the ASU/W&M, Colgate/UNH, and the SFA/SCSt. games in the bracket...not the teams in the games, but just the games. I really can't see all 4 CAA teams on the same side of the bracket, and I can't see a potential PL/PL matchup, or a SoCon/SoCon matchup in the 2nd round, along with the two CAA/CAA matchups on that side either.

Yeah, there's no way that happens.

[Waco Kid]

3 conferences having 3 teams in (IMO) makes the whole thing tough. Here is my shot at it.


EIU
1) SIU

EWU @
SDSU

Weber St @
McNeese

Elon @
4)Richmond



HC @
2) Nova

W&M@
SCSU

NH@
ASU

SFA @
3) Montana

[UncleSam]

Stunning upsets highlight the action that helped clear the playoff picture - I am ready to declare my post season guess...

Seeds:
1-Villanova
2-Montana
3-S. Illinois
4-Richmond (but this could go to ASU) either way it will not change my predictions.


Rest of Field:

N Hampshire - at large
W&M - at large
SCSt - autobid
ASU- autobid
SFA - autobid
SDakSt - at large
E. Washington - at large
Elon - at large
Colgate - at large
Holy Cross - autobid
E. Illinois - autobid
McNeese St - at large

Again I think that ASU could take the #4 seed - but I will put in Richmond just based on rankings

1) Villanova
Holy Cross

Colgate @
N. Hampshire

W&M @
ASU

Elon
4) Richmond - Again can switch the seed for ASU and Richmond- pod stays same



2) Montana
South Dakota St.

E. Washington @
McNeese St.

SFA @
South Carolina St.

E. Illinois
3) S. Illinois

All four CAA teams on the same side of the bracket??? I don't think so.

[smcwildcat]

colgate realllly?

[nmatsen]

We don't deserve to be in after Phat Grace and our O-Coordinators collasial bed wetting today, but Colgate? Really?

[ASU_MBA]

What about all the liberty talk? Crickets. Haha

They are you we thought they were.

[4th and What?]

Weber should be in over Colgate. That being said, a 9-2 Colgate could be the screwy pick the committee goes with over Weber St. The playoffs just wouldn't be complete without a little disagreement.

[Go Apps]

SFA won the autobid

[ItsyBitsySpider]

There is no way Richmond is denied a seed. Would be a complete joke.

[wr70beh]

There is no way Richmond is denied a seed. Would be a complete joke.

It would be a traveshamockery if there ever was one. The only ones suggesting otherwise are connected with Boone.

[Pard4Life]

Richmond, Nova, Montana, SIU clear seeds for sure.

Colgate? I like the PL, but no way.

[Waco Kid]

It would be a traveshamockery if there ever was one. The only ones suggesting otherwise are connected with Boone.

I agree that Richmond will get it. Had W&M won ASU might have been able to grab it since the NCAA likes $$$ and ASU is a proven team. With UR being #4, 10-1, and defending champs no way they don't get it.

[AlphaSigMD]

It would be a traveshamockery if there ever was one. The only ones suggesting otherwise are connected with Boone.

Maybe you should have won your conference championship, then you wouldn't have to be so worried...xsmiley_wixxlolx

[HLNgriz]

siu,um,nova,ur in that order. past that is a jump ball.Three big sky teams? Weebs will be nervous tonight.

[GolfingGriz]

BSC: for sure two teams.
Looks like three teams will be in!

[Native]

siu,um,nova,ur in that order. past that is a jump ball.Three big sky teams? Weebs will be nervous tonight.

No, not nervous about toinight. ...just massively pissed tomorrow if the Wildcats are not selected.

Weber has by far the best bubble team resume:
1. 31-13 blowout win over GPI #11 EWU in Cheney
2. Blowout 27-9 blowout win over GPI #23 NAU
3. 47-14 blowout win over GPI #35 Cal Poly
4. Stronger schedule than any other bubble team

Colgate and FAMU are not even IN the top 35 of the GPI and they both have signature LOSSES to non-top 25 teams.

[DTSpider]

Maybe you should have won your conference championship, then you wouldn't have to be so worried...xsmiley_wixxlolx

Technically, UR is a conference co-champion. The CAA does not declare a singular champion if multiple teams are tied.

Anyway - I don't think there's any debate on the seeds. Would actually think that ASU will be matched up in the same pod as Villanova or SIU. No reason other than I think that the committee would rather have ASU-Montana or ASU-UR in the semifinals (if both teams win).

[09griz]

I think we are gonna see three Big Sky teams.

[GolfingGriz]

No, not nervous about toinight. ...just massively pissed tomorrow if the Wildcats are not selected.

Weber has by far the best bubble team resume:
1. 31-13 blowout win over GPI #11 EWU in Cheney
2. Blowout 27-9 blowout win over GPI #23 NAU
3. 47-14 blowout win over GPI #35 Cal Poly
4. Stronger schedule than any other bubble team

Colgate and FAMU are not even IN the top 35 of the GPI and they both have signature LOSSES to non-top 25 teams.

Only thing WSU has to worry about is the blowout loss to Montana. This was the big game on their schedule and they didn't show up. That being said, I think WSU will get in, but won't be as comforting as they will wish.

[MarchingMountaineer]

Technically, UR is a conference co-champion. The CAA does not declare a singular champion if multiple teams are tied.

Anyway - I don't think there's any debate on the seeds. Would actually think that ASU will be matched up in the same pod as Villanova or SIU. No reason other than I think that the committee would rather have ASU-Montana or ASU-UR in the semifinals (if both teams win).

Two years ago, ASU was the defending Champion, Conference co-champion, and wasn't seeded. I'm not saying Richmond shouldn't get a seed, but I don't know that it's a lock either. The committee always does something odd.

[UNH Fanboi]

Weber should get in, but I wouldn't be shocked if the committee was like "Ooooh, Colgate has 9 wins and Weber has 7" and picks Colgate. I think Maine getting in over W&M last year showed the committee isn't always rational. The committee is comprised of Athletic Directors who are probably really busy and don't live and breathe FCS like all of us, so what seems obvious to us isn't necessarily so to them. .

[tribe_pride]

ASU and UR should be in the same Quarters pod. Proximity makes sense and the fact that they are probably the 4 and 5 seeds makes the most sense.

[mlbowl]

Weber should get in, but I wouldn't be shocked if the committee was like "Ooooh, Colgate has 9 wins and Weber has 7" and picks Colgate. I think Maine getting in over W&M last year showed the committee isn't always rational. The committee is comprised of Athletic Directors who are probably really busy and don't live and breathe FCS like all of us, so what seems obvious to us isn't necessarily so to them. .


Agreed!

[ToTheLeft]

If EWU loses, Liberty v. UNI v. Colgate for that last spot... right?

I guess Colgate would be the top pick there, mainly due to sheer number of wins.

[ASU_MBA]

This will be a test on how much the ncaa wants money. If app gets the 4 seed over richmond it will be because of our attendance.

[JMUNJ08]

Maybe you should have won your conference championship, then you wouldn't have to be so worried...xsmiley_wixxlolx

They did. They are Co-champs....xrulesx

[tribe_pride]

Two years ago, ASU was the defending Champion, Conference co-champion, and wasn't seeded. I'm not saying Richmond shouldn't get a seed, but I don't know that it's a lock either. The committee always does something odd.

Not really a good comparison. That year, UNI, McNeese and Montana were 1, 2, and 3 and were all undefeated. #4 was SIU who lost only by 6 at #1 UNI.

App. St lost twice that year. Once at a 9-4 Wofford playoff team and once to a 7-4 Georgia Southern non-playoff team at home

As we all know, it was a Delaware - App. St. finals so the seeds don't always mean everything.

[ToTheLeft]

If EWU loses, the last team in will be UNI/Colgate/Liberty right?

[MacThor]

Not really a good comparison. That year, UNI, McNeese and Montana were 1, 2, and 3 and were all undefeated. #4 was SIU who lost only by 6 at #1 UNI.

App. St lost twice that year. Once at a 9-4 Wofford playoff team and once to a 7-4 Georgia Southern non-playoff team at home

As we all know, it was a Delaware - App. St. finals so the seeds don't always mean everything.

And both McNeese & Montana were overrated and choked in the first round, so it was practically as if ASU had a seed anyway!

[CAAisBOSS]

does anyone actually think app st has a better resume than 9-2 WM or 10-1 Richmond? i mean honestly. theres no objective way you can say that they have a better resume. reputation shouldnt count for anything

[JMUNJ08]

Based on nothing but what I think....

UR has the resume but not the $$ over ASU. Seeds first then money. UNH still most likely to head west and a BSC will come east (Weber or EWU).

Now, the committee places the match ups with seeds first by geography. Therefore, I believe there is a chance (against what everyone else thinks) that ELON goes to UR...SCST will get a home game it just HAS to happen and why not a western team as they don't need the away team to bring fans to get that place rocking.

I can't wait for tomorrow night!!!!

1) Nova
Holy Cross

SCST
Weber St.

4) UR
Elon

ASU
W&M


2) Montana
SDSU

SFA
EWU

3) SIU
EIU

McNeese St.
UNH

[MacThor]

EWU is currently losing. That could throw another monkey wrench into this thing.

[Duke Dawg]

this is going to be the easiest bracket the committee has had to do in years....maybe ever.

Keeping in mind the NCAA's main objectives:

1) Geography rules ! - travel costs the NCAA $$$
2) teams from same conference cannot play in Rd1.

With those two criteria that are prominent in how they set up the bracket, this is what you'll see. And I'm not even going to attempt to figure out the order of the 4 seeded teams, because they are all pretty close and worthy of being 1....or 4.

One half of the bracket, let's call it the "Eastern" bracket will be:

Elon at Richmond (seed)
Wiliam & Mary at Appalachain State

Holy Cross at Villanova (seed)
New Hampshire at South Carolina State

The other half, the "Midwest/Western" bracket will be:

Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois (seed)
Weber State at McNeese State

South Dakota State at Montana (seed)
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F Austin (no idea who will outbid on this)


Now, some will argue that SC State will be matched up with ASU. But the 400-mile rule ONLY is required for the seeded teams. the objective of the other 4 matchups is to cut travel down as much as possible AS A GROUP. Knowing that, if you send SCSU to App State, you are forced to have both WM and UNH be matched up with teams outside the Eastern time zone because those two teams cannot play each other in Rd1. That increases travel.

By simply pairing WM with Appy State and UNH (who has to fly somewhere regardless) with SC State, you've kept all 8 Atlantic Coast teams in the Eastern time zone.....and all 8 midwestern/western teams in the Central/Mountain time zones. There are no cross country trips....no teams passing each other in the sky.

This is a competitive, fair bracket that mixes and matches up well.

It's very simple this year. I'd almost bet money the bracket you see above is what will be presented tomorrow.

[Phoenix87]

Here is my best guess taking location in to account. The multiple bids from multiple conferences made things tough.

#1 Villanova (CAA) 10-1 vs. Elon (SOCON) 9-2 DISTANCE: 440 MILES
New Hampshire (CAA) 9-2 vs. Holy Cross (Patriot) 9-2 DISTANCE: 97 MILES

#4 Richmond (CAA) 10-1 vs. South Carolina St. (MEAC) 10-1 DISTANCE: 383 MILES
App State (SOCON) 9-2 vs. William & Mary (CAA) 9-2 DISTANCE: 358 MILES


#3 Southern Illinois (MVC) 10-1 vs. Eastern Illinois (OVC) 8-3 DISTANCE: 160 MILES
McNeese State (Southland) 9-2 vs. Weber State (Big Sky) 7-4 DISTANCE: 1657 MILES

#2 Montana (Big Sky) 11-0 vs. South Dakota State (MVC) 8-3 DISTANCE: 1052 MILES
SF Austin (Southland) 9-2 vs. Eastern Washington (Big Sky) 8-3 DISTANCE: 2066 MILES

[ASU_MBA]

does anyone actually think app st has a better resume than 9-2 WM or 10-1 Richmond? i mean honestly. theres no objective way you can say that they have a better resume. reputation shouldnt count for anything

There is a good chance you come to The Rock next weekend and we had bill and mary to our resume.

Look at the app state 07 resume. We beat #5 michigan then lost two FCS games and did not get a seed. You beat a horrible acc team and have lost 2 FCS teams. You may be on the road inround one.

[appybybirth]

Seeding is so odd. I would like to know the number of people who think Montana is better than Richmond or ASU?

[MacThor]

'Nova v Holy Cross
App St v W&M

Montana v SFA
SDSU v Weber

Richmond v Elon
SC St vs UNH

SIU v EIU
McNeese v EWU

I just have a feeling the committee is going to squeeze UNH into Richmond's "pod" somehow. It's the one CAA playoff team UR hasn't played in November.

[Profane]

Full Post:

http://prof-fan.blogspot.com/2009/11/fcs-playoffs-2009-bracket-projection.html

Summary:

Holy Cross (9-2; Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#1 Villanova (10-1; CAA Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3; At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2; At-Large)


Elon (9-2; At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1; At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1; MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2; SOCON Auto-Bid)


Eastern Illinois (8-3; OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Southern Illinois (10-1; MVFC Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2; At-Large)
at
McNeese State (8[9]-2[3]; At Large)


South Dakota State (8-3; At-Large)
at
#3 Montana (11-0; Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4; At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2; Southlands Auto-Bid)

[Native]

Here is my best guess taking location in to account. The multiple bids from multiple conferences made things tough.

#1 Villanova (CAA) 10-1 vs. Elon (SOCON) 9-2 DISTANCE: 440 MILES
New Hampshire (CAA) 9-2 vs. Holy Cross (Patriot) 9-2 DISTANCE: 97 MILES

#4 Richmond (CAA) 10-1 vs. South Carolina St. (MEAC) 10-1 DISTANCE: 383 MILES
App State (SOCON) 9-2 vs. William & Mary (CAA) 9-2 DISTANCE: 358 MILES


#3 Southern Illinois (MVC) 10-1 vs. Eastern Illinois (OVC) 8-3 DISTANCE: 160 MILES
McNeese State (Southland) 9-2 vs. Weber State (Big Sky) 7-4 DISTANCE: 1657 MILES

#2 Montana (Big Sky) 11-0 vs. South Dakota State (MVC) 8-3 DISTANCE: 1052 MILES
SF Austin (Southland) 9-2 vs. Eastern Washington (Big Sky) 8-3 DISTANCE: 2066 MILES

After you get past the maximum bus distance, mileage does not matter so much.

In the west, Southern Illinois, Montana, South Dakota State and McNeese - if they win tonight - will likely stay at home.

The reasons why McNeese will most likely earn the home game and not SFA - despite SFA snagging the Southland autobid - are that McNeese has more quality wins, is ranked higher in the GPI and has much higher average attendance at home games.

I see Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois, Eastern Washington at South Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin at Montana, and Weber State at McNeese.

[UNH Fanboi]

No way does Montana get lower than a #2 seed. The committee wants as many games in Missoula as possible, and an 11-0 record won't make it hard to justify.

[theasushow]

this is going to be the easiest bracket the committee has had to do in years....maybe ever.

Keeping in mind the NCAA's main objectives:

1) Geography rules ! - travel costs the NCAA $$$
2) teams from same conference cannot play in Rd1.

With those two criteria that are prominent in how they set up the bracket, this is what you'll see. And I'm not even going to attempt to figure out the order of the 4 seeded teams, because they are all pretty close and worthy of being 1....or 4.

One half of the bracket, let's call it the "Eastern" bracket will be:

Elon at Richmond (seed)
Wiliam & Mary at Appalachain State

Holy Cross at Villanova (seed)
New Hampshire at South Carolina State

The other half, the "Midwest/Western" bracket will be:

Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois (seed)
Weber State at McNeese State

South Dakota State at Montana (seed)
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F Austin (no idea who will outbid on this)


Now, some will argue that SC State will be matched up with ASU. But the 400-mile rule ONLY is required for the seeded teams. the objective of the other 4 matchups is to cut travel down as much as possible AS A GROUP. Knowing that, if you send SCSU to App State, you are forced to have both WM and UNH be matched up with teams outside the Eastern time zone because those two teams cannot play each other in Rd1. That increases travel.

By simply pairing WM with Appy State and UNH (who has to fly somewhere regardless) with SC State, you've kept all 8 Atlantic Coast teams in the Eastern time zone.....and all 8 midwestern/western teams in the Central/Mountain time zones. There are no cross country trips....no teams passing each other in the sky.

This is a competitive, fair bracket that mixes and matches up well.

It's very simple this year. I'd almost bet money the bracket you see above is what will be presented tomorrow.

and, all 4 caa teams are on the same side of the bracket, while all the BSC teams are on the other side....highly unlikely, regardless of travel.

[19Duke97]

does anyone actually think app st has a better resume than 9-2 WM or 10-1 Richmond? i mean honestly. theres no objective way you can say that they have a better resume. reputation shouldnt count for anything

Most likely neither team will be seeded and ASU will most likely bid more than you all, and they will certainly draw better. Betting money is yes, you will go to Boone. And as everyone has stated here I think Weber will and should be the last team in.

[ASU_MBA]

If EWU loses, the last team in will be UNI/Colgate/Liberty right?

Liberty is done, no quality win (Laf. Lost again today)
And liberty lost to stony brook.
UNI would get in first.

[seattlespider]

Liberty is done, no quality win (Laf. Lost again today)
And liberty lost to stony brook.
UNI would get in first.

Of course, this is now moot given the results.

[hebmskebm]

and, all 4 caa teams are on the same side of the bracket, while all the BSC teams are on the other side....highly unlikely, regardless of travel.

I'm sorry, but I think this year geography and travel costs win out over bracket balance. If the NCAA can get away with keeping all of the West teams in one bracket, knocking each other off week after week (and keeping the total number of flights down and keeping the distance of each flight to a minimum), they're going to do it.

[theasushow]

I'm sorry, but I think this year geography and travel costs win out over bracket balance. If the NCAA can get away with keeping all of the West teams in one bracket, knocking each other off week after week (and keeping the total number of flights down and keeping the distance of each flight to a minimum), they're going to do it.

you could be right, and if so...that is complete garbage. good thing the NCAA tourney isnt like that. (carolina vs. duke in the first or 2nd round, etc.)

[DaGriz]

No offense Weber, I'd love to see three Big Sky teams get in, but if you don't make it you have nobody to blame but yourselves. One FBS money game I can understand, it helps with the balance sheet, but Wyoming and CSU this year? I thought it was stupid at the time and really left no room for error-and that could be just what happens. You can't have it both ways, you can't play the money games and then complain about the losses. We're basically in the same scenario. We take the easy route with a weaker schedule and then bitch if we go undefeated and don't get a top 2 seed. I feel the same with our team, if we're going to take the sure thing with an easy out of conference schedule, then we can't bitch when we get a 4 seed when we're undefeated.

[jlcharles]

Two years ago, ASU was the defending Champion, Conference co-champion, and wasn't seeded. I'm not saying Richmond shouldn't get a seed, but I don't know that it's a lock either. The committee always does something odd.

Was ASU 10-1 with an FBS win and their only loss to the #2/3 team in the country? I think Richmond is a lock for a seed.

[ToTheLeft]

Of course, this is now moot given the results.

Some App fans take every chance they can to talk down on LU. Don't know why they do it, but they do....

[theasushow]

Was ASU 10-1 with an FBS win and their only loss to the #2/3 team in the country? I think Richmond is a lock for a seed.

well app did have an fbs win that year if i recall correctly.....

[theasushow]

Some App fans take every chance they can to talk down on LU. Don't know why they do it, but they do....

pretty sure that was a richmond fan.

[HLNgriz]

Full Post:

http://prof-fan.blogspot.com/2009/11/fcs-playoffs-2009-bracket-projection.html

Summary:

Holy Cross (9-2; Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#1 Villanova (10-1; CAA Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3; At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2; At-Large)


Elon (9-2; At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1; At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1; MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2; SOCON Auto-Bid)


Eastern Illinois (8-3; OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Southern Illinois (10-1; MVFC Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2; At-Large)
at
McNeese State (8[9]-2[3]; At Large)


South Dakota State (8-3; At-Large)
at
#3 Montana (11-0; Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4; At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2; Southlands Auto-Bid)

I like this one

[Go Apps]

I think the right thing to do is to seed the autos of the top four conferences -

[Appattk]

Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Villanova
MEAC: SCSU
MVFC: SIU
OVC: EIU
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Appalachian
Southland: SF Austin

Richmond 10-1
UNH 9-2
William & Mary 9-2
Elon 9-2
McNeese St 9-2
Weber St 7-4
EWU
SDSU 8-3

EIU @
#1 SIU

UNH @
McNeese St

William & Mary @
ASU

EWU @
#4 Richmond

SF Austin @
#2 Montana

Weber St @
SDSU

Elon @
SCSU

Holy Cross @
#3 Villanova


Week 1
#1 SIU over EIU
UNH over McNeese St
ASU over William & Mary
#4 Richmond over EWU
#2 Montana over SF Austin
SDSU over Weber St
Elon over SCSU
#3 Villanova over Holy Cross


Week 2
#1 SIU over UNH
ASU over #4 Richmond
SDSU over #2 Montana
#3 Villanova over Elon


Week 3
#1 SIU over ASU
#3 Villanova over SDSU


Championship
#3 Villanova over #1 SIU

[UNHFootballAlum]

Maybe you should have won your conference championship, then you wouldn't have to be so worried...xsmiley_wixxlolx

Richmond is CoChamps of the CAA, so I guess they did win the conference

[seattlespider]

I think the right thing to do is to seed the autos of the top four conferences -

How convenient for you. So if that "top-4" conference happened to go 8-3 with two conference losses, they should still get a top four seed over a 10-1 (7-1) team that wins a FBS game? Just wondering how far your argument goes.

[theasushow]

How convenient for you. So if that "top-4" conference happened to go 8-3 with two conference losses, they should still get a top four seed over a 10-1 (7-1) team that wins a FBS game? Just wondering how far your argument goes.

it goes 30,000 strong.

[UNHFootballAlum]

No, not nervous about toinight. ...just massively pissed tomorrow if the Wildcats are not selected.

Weber has by far the best bubble team resume:
1. 31-13 blowout win over GPI #11 EWU in Cheney
2. Blowout 27-9 blowout win over GPI #23 NAU
3. 47-14 blowout win over GPI #35 Cal Poly
4. Stronger schedule than any other bubble team

Colgate and FAMU are not even IN the top 35 of the GPI and they both have signature LOSSES to non-top 25 teams.

Is Weber in over UNI with teh same record?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Villanova
MEAC: SCSU
MVFC: SIU
OVC: EIU
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Appalachian
Southland: SF Austin

Richmond 10-1
UNH 9-2
William & Mary 9-2
Elon 9-2
Colgate 9-2
McNeese St 9-2
Weber St 7-4
SDSU 8-3

EIU @
#1 SIU

UNH @
McNeese St

William & Mary @
ASU

EWU @
#4 Richmond

SF Austin @
#2 Montana

Weber St @
SDSU

Elon @
SCSU

Holy Cross @
#3 Villanova


Week 1
#1 SIU over EIU
UNH over McNeese St
ASU over William & Mary
#4 Richmond over EWU
#2 Montana over SF Austin
SDSU over Weber St
Elon over SCSU
#3 Villanova over Holy Cross


Week 2
#1 SIU over UNH
ASU over #4 Richmond
SDSU over #2 Montana
#3 Villanova over Elon


Week 3
#1 SIU over ASU
#3 Villanova over SDSU


Championship
#3 Villanova over #1 SIU

EWU is a lock for the playoffs.. I don't know why you have them listed as losing to UR when you have Colgate listed under at-larges.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2611/4122897653_a31d6c8695_o.gif

[Go Apps]

No the top four winners this year are all deserving

[ToTheLeft]

pretty sure that was a richmond fan.

I was talking about the quote in the Richmond fan's post, which was from ASU_MBA, who has smacked on LU many times in the past.

[UNH Fanboi]

No offense Weber, I'd love to see three Big Sky teams get in, but if you don't make it you have nobody to blame but yourselves. One FBS money game I can understand, it helps with the balance sheet, but Wyoming and CSU this year? I thought it was stupid at the time and really left no room for error-and that could be just what happens. You can't have it both ways, you can't play the money games and then complain about the losses. We're basically in the same scenario. We take the easy route with a weaker schedule and then bitch if we go undefeated and don't get a top 2 seed. I feel the same with our team, if we're going to take the sure thing with an easy out of conference schedule, then we can't bitch when we get a 4 seed when we're undefeated.

I agree that scheduling 2 FBS teams is a bad idea, but maybe Weber was simply unable to find another FCS opponent? There just aren't that many teams out west, and turning down a money game to fly out to an eastern FCS team is probably a tough sell in this economy.

[Appattk]

EWU is a lock for the playoffs.. I don't know why you have them listed as losing to UR when you have Colgate listed under at-larges.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2611/4122897653_a31d6c8695_o.gif

Colgate was replaced in the list with EWU

Realized EWU's resume was much stronger than Colgate's.

[Ronbo]

No way does Montana get lower than a #2 seed. The committee wants as many games in Missoula as possible, and an 11-0 record won't make it hard to justify.


11-0 and the Champion in the 2nd ranked Conference.

[Go Apps]

11-0 and the Champion in the 2nd ranked Conference.

But how many national titles during the 2000's that is the defining stat

[UNH Fanboi]

I can't believe how shameless some ASU fans are. They revert every argument back to their 3 championships regardless of how irrelevant it is. I really hope y'all face W&M in the first round and get embarrassed on your home field for the second year in a row.

[Native]

Is Weber in over UNI with teh same record?

Both teams are 7-4 in DI contests.

Weber's worst loss is to GPI #20 Montana State. Weber has TWO GPI top 25 victories over #11 Eastern Washington and #23 Northern Arizona. Both were blowout wins. The 31-13 victory over EWU was on the road at Cheney. The margin over NAU was 27-9.

Northern Iowa's worst loss is to GPI #40 Illinois State to finish the season. UNI has ZERO victories over GPI top 25 teams, and ZERO victories over GPI top 30 teams. Northern Iowa's best wins were over Missouri State (#33 GPI) and Youngstown State (#34 GPI). The MVFC as a conference only won 10 of 15 FCS out-of-conference matchups, while the Big Sky won 9 of 11 FCS out-of-conference games. South Dakota State, for example, lost 14-21 against the same Cal Poly team Weber beat 47-14.

[Appattk]

11-0 and the Champion in the 2nd ranked Conference.

Don't forget to mention your average attendance of 25,652.

That surely doesn't hurt.

[Go Apps]

not shameless and you cant argue with Montana's success - but we have some great stats as well - but I think both your and my teams play in a much more competitive conference year after year so everything is relative...

[theasushow]

funny thing is the brackets may be set by now...and yet some people will be up on ags until 4am arguing over something that has already been set.

[Cincy App]

Now, some will argue that SC State will be matched up with ASU. But the 400-mile rule ONLY is required for the seeded teams. the objective of the other 4 matchups is to cut travel down as much as possible AS A GROUP. Knowing that, if you send SCSU to App State, you are forced to have both WM and UNH be matched up with teams outside the Eastern time zone because those two teams cannot play each other in Rd1. That increases travel.



The 400 mile radius is not required "just" for the seeded teams. Generally, the NCAA will attempt to set up as many first round bus trips as possible. Typically the NCAA sets up 5 bus trips. The NCAA has also suggested that it doesn't matter about distance once a bus trip is out of the question. 400 miles is the stated distance cutoff of bus vs. fly but there have been exceptions to the rule (ie - Richmond vs. EKU).

[UNH Fanboi]

not shameless and you cant argue with Montana's success - but we have some great stats as well - but I think both your and my teams play in a much more competitive conference year after year so everything is relative...

I can't believe I'm defending Montana, but...

We all know that the Big Sky is generally weaker than the other power conferences (though not this year) and Montana may have snuck into the playoffs a couple of years when they wouldn't have in other conferences. Over all though, I don't think their playoff record is anything to be ashamed of. Montana has won 2 championships in their current 16-year streak. An average playoff team would average 1 championship over 16 appearances in a 16-team field.

Anyway, all this is completely irrelevant to the current discussion. Objective computers rank the Big Sky as the #2 full conference this year, and Montana went 11-0. I personally have SIU and Villanova over them, but they are clearly a solid team that deserves a seed regardless of their history or their conference's history.

[Cincy App]

Both teams are 7-4 in DI contests.

Weber's worst loss is to GPI #20 Montana State. Weber has TWO GPI top 25 victories over #11 Eastern Washington and #23 Northern Arizona. Both were blowout wins. The 31-13 victory over EWU was on the road at Cheney. The margin over NAU was 27-9.

Northern Iowa's worst loss is to GPI #40 Illinois State to finish the season. UNI has ZERO victories over GPI top 25 teams, and ZERO victories over GPI top 30 teams.

I like Weber's chances for the last spot. Still, UNI has a shot. UNI was a blocked FG away from beating FBS ranked Iowa (and national title contender for much of the season). Weber's I-A outcomes were much less impressive. Again, I like Weber's chances - but you're not a lock.

[Grabholdofyosef]

this is going to be the easiest bracket the committee has had to do in years....maybe ever.

Keeping in mind the NCAA's main objectives:

1) Geography rules ! - travel costs the NCAA $$$
2) teams from same conference cannot play in Rd1.

With those two criteria that are prominent in how they set up the bracket, this is what you'll see. And I'm not even going to attempt to figure out the order of the 4 seeded teams, because they are all pretty close and worthy of being 1....or 4.

One half of the bracket, let's call it the "Eastern" bracket will be:

Elon at Richmond (seed)
Wiliam & Mary at Appalachain State

Holy Cross at Villanova (seed)
New Hampshire at South Carolina State

The other half, the "Midwest/Western" bracket will be:

Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois (seed)
Weber State at McNeese State

South Dakota State at Montana (seed)
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F Austin (no idea who will outbid on this)


Now, some will argue that SC State will be matched up with ASU. But the 400-mile rule ONLY is required for the seeded teams. the objective of the other 4 matchups is to cut travel down as much as possible AS A GROUP. Knowing that, if you send SCSU to App State, you are forced to have both WM and UNH be matched up with teams outside the Eastern time zone because those two teams cannot play each other in Rd1. That increases travel.

By simply pairing WM with Appy State and UNH (who has to fly somewhere regardless) with SC State, you've kept all 8 Atlantic Coast teams in the Eastern time zone.....and all 8 midwestern/western teams in the Central/Mountain time zones. There are no cross country trips....no teams passing each other in the sky.

This is a competitive, fair bracket that mixes and matches up well.

It's very simple this year. I'd almost bet money the bracket you see above is what will be presented tomorrow.
i agree with your bracket. The field is crazy strong this year and the East side is loaded, but it works out almost perfect geography wise. However, I hate that ASU would have to play W&M in the 1st rd. That feels like a quarterfinal or semifinal matchup.

Also, there is no way ASU deserves a seed over the top 4 this year. UR, Nova, MONT and SI have too good of a resume. The only way ASU deserved a seed was with a Nova, MONT or SI loss.

[UNH Fanboi]

I like Weber's chances for the last spot. Still, UNI has a shot. UNI was a blocked FG away from beating FBS ranked Iowa (and national title contender for much of the season). Weber's I-A outcomes were much less impressive. Again, I like Weber's chances - but you're not a lock.

Any team whose highlight of the season is a loss in week1 has no shot of getting into the playoffs. UNI has not done jack against anybody of note since then and just lost to a mediocre team. I think Colgate is the team that Weber has to worry about, as crazy as that sounds.

[WSBE]

If UNH travels to McNeese St....(& of course it won't be televised)....I will puke. My biggest complaint about FCS. You can follow your team pattionately all year...then the biggest game of the season, the game that you wait 365 days to enjoy, isn't televised. So the best you can do if you have a family & can't travel, is listen to the freakin radio circa 1950. I'm sorry but any pride & excitement of FCS goes out the window fast when this happens.

[Go Apps]

Colgate is a real threat - Lafayette surprised everyone years ago and I think the Patriot could have an argument - but losses by the other two today did not help their case - Weber can send a thank you note to Liberty who was the team that absolutely blew it today!!!

By the way will the committee remember that EWU was on probation?

[biggie]

For the UR vs App seed, still comes down to how greedy NCAA is and the conf championship is the bailout for them if they choose App.

The money people will look at revenue of UR even with all 3 games at home will be almost equal to Apps first home game by itself. Us taking the attendence crown today enforces that.

[WestCoastAggie]

Thank Northern Iowa for sending UNH to O'Berg.

[Go Apps]

For the UR vs App seed, still comes down to how greedy NCAA is and the conf championship is the bailout for them if they choose App.

The money people will look at revenue of UR even with all 3 games at home will be almost equal to Apps first home game by itself. Us taking the attendence crown today enforces that.

Did ASU out average Montana for the year?

[WestCoastAggie]

Colgate is a real threat - Lafayette surprised everyone years ago and I think the Patriot could have an argument - but losses by the other two today did not help their case - Weber can send a thank you note to Liberty who was the team that absolutely blew it today!!!

By the way will the committee remember that EWU was on probation?
Don't forget Northern Iowa.

[biggie]

Did ASU out average Montana for the year?
Yes, needed about 28.5k or so today and got a little over 30k. Of course that isn't "official" yet.

[Go Apps]

Yes, needed about 28.5k or so today and got a little over 30k. Of course that isn't "official" yet.

One can only imagine the crowds if the first three games were in great weather

[Native]

I like Weber's chances for the last spot. Still, UNI has a shot. UNI was a blocked FG away from beating FBS ranked Iowa (and national title contender for much of the season). Weber's I-A outcomes were much less impressive. Again, I like Weber's chances - but you're not a lock.

I agree that Weber is not a lock, but only because of NCAA political considerations, not strength of performance. I also agree that Weber's resume is not all that much stronger than UNI's, but the differences - including overall strength of schedule and November finish - are very clear.

Weber was in every game except the Montana game this year, losing at Wyoming by only a TD, at Colorado State by only a single point, out-gaining both Colorado State and Montana State in total yardage, and holding the lead at times in the latter two games.

[Cincy App]

My bracket guess:

E. Illinois at #1 S. Illinois
E. Washington at SD State

SC State at #4 Richmond
William & Mary at ASU

SF Austin at #2 Montana
Weber State at McNeese St

Elon at #3 Villanova
Holy Cross at New Hampshire

I do think the Playoff Selection Committee (PSC) will stick with regionalization and will attempt to set up 5 first round bus trips. The above brackets would have 5 bus trips if Elon was encouraged to bus (Philly is slightly over 400 miles).

If the PSC wants a mix of regionalization and balance, then I would suggest the following bracket:

E. Illinois at #1 S. Illinois
Weber St at McNeese State

Elon at #4 Richmond
William & Mary at SC State

SD State at #2 Montana
E. Washington at SF Austin

Holy Cross at #3 Villanova
New Hampshire at ASU

Option #3 - if the PSC actually follows its guidelines for pairings:

E. Illinois at #1 S. Illinois
SD State at ASU

Elon at #4 Richmond
William & Mary at SC State

SF Austin at #2 Montana
E. Washington at McNeese St

Holy Cross at #3 Villanova
Weber St at New Hampshire

[Go Apps]

Northern Iowa is no longer in the running not sure why people keep considering them - the team still with a breath would be Fla A&M but noone is talking about them

[WestCoastAggie]

My FINAL Prediction:

With Weber State in (The Most likely pick now.)
Holy Cross vs. (1) Villanova
New Hampshire vs. South Carolina State

Elon vs. (4) Richmond
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota State vs. (2) Montana
Weber State vs. McNeese State

Now IF somehow FAMU gets in (Yes it is unlikely but still):
Holy Cross vs. (1) Villanova
New Hampshire vs. South Carolina State

Elon vs. (4) Richmond
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota State vs. (2) Montana
Florida A&M vs. McNeese State

Now IF UNI still Manages to get in:
Holy Cross vs. (1) Villanova
New Hampshire vs. South Carolina State

Elon vs. (4) Richmond
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota State vs. (2) Montana
Northern Iowa vs. McNeese State

[Prominentwon]

out-gaining both Colorado State and Montana State in total yardage, and holding the lead at times in the latter two games.

I honestly believe this is irrelevant.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

My FINAL Prediction:

Holy Cross vs. (1) Villanova
New Hampshire vs. South Carolina State

Elon vs. (4) Richmond
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington vs. Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota State vs. (2) Montana
Weber State vs. McNeese State

Swap South Dakota State and Stephen F. Austin and I think you have a winner!

[Go Apps]

Montana will not beat Sdakstate

[Go Apps]

Not saying it is not but perhaps the CAA wasn't the best conference this year - but the playoffs always tell the tale - but the CAA always get the the nod as the season begins

[Native]

I honestly believe this is irrelevant.

Agreed, until you get down to two teams with very, very close resumes.

[Native]

Montana will not beat Sdakstate

Probably correct, because either Weber or Eastern Washington will already have taken out the Jacks in the first round! xsmiley_wix

[PhoenixSupreme]

Richmond/W&M/App/Elon will not be in the same 4-team group.....everyone is predicting it that way but I don't see it happening that way. I still can see Elon/UR and W&M/App playing each other, but just not in the same group

[Native]

Swap South Dakota State and Stephen F. Austin and I think you have a winner!

Yup! xthumbsupx

[CrunchGriz]

Montana will not beat Sdakstate

I'm still trying to figure out how you've come to this conclusion. While I don't put a ton of stock in the transitive property to compare teams (i.e., Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, so Team A will beat Team C), the only points of comparison between South Dakota State and Montana this season are their respective games against Cal Poly.

That comparison:
Cal Poly 21, South Dakota State 14
Montana 35, Cal Poly 23

And the game, should it happen, will be in Missoula.

Or, what is it specifically about the potential matchup that you think favors South Dakota State?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Probably correct, because either Weber or Eastern Washington will already have taken out the Jacks in the first round! xsmiley_wix

xnodxxnodxxnodx

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2611/4122897653_a31d6c8695_o.gif

[Squealofthepig]

Probably correct, because either Weber or Eastern Washington will already have taken out the Jacks in the first round! xsmiley_wix

Boy, I don't know about this. I view the Jacks game against SIU kinda like I do the PSU game for the Griz - a bit of an anomaly, with one team at the top of their game and the other kinda near the bottom. The Jacks are a better team than what showed up at the SIU game, and any team that takes them lightly is probably in for a surprise. I wouldn't bet on them to win the NC, but I could definitely see them successfully playing a spoiler role.

(I'll be admittedly torn if (OK, when) SDSU is matched up against a BSC team. I like their team, but gotta pull for the big fluffy whenever possible. :)

[ThompsonThe]

There is no way Richmond is denied a seed. Would be a complete joke.

They might not be willing to give the CAA 2 Seeds.

[ThompsonThe]

I can't believe how shameless some ASU fans are. They revert every argument back to their 3 championships regardless of how irrelevant it is. I really hope y'all face W&M in the first round and get embarrassed on your home field for the second year in a row.

Armanti may be injured, but I don't think he is as injured as last year playing Richmond. I just wanted to see the game over, so he could get off the field. 2 operations the next week or two.

[uofmman1122]

Like I said in another thread, I think UNI's loss today kills SIU's chance for the top seed.

Now you have a SIU team that has only one win over a playoff caliber team in SDSU, and one win over a mediocre UNI team.

Wins over the #10 GPI SDSU and #7 UNI (Obviously overrated)
Next closest wins are #33 Missouri State and #34 Youngstown State

Compare that to Montana

Wins over two likely playoff teams in EWU and WSU, with mediocre wins over Montana State, UC Davis, and Northern Arizona.

Wins over #11 GPI EWU, #14 WSU, #20 MSU, #23 NAU, and #27 UC Davis.

Montana's only downside is the horrible performance against ISU, which I feel the games vs. NoCo and MSU showed was nothing more than a very good team playing a horrible, horrible game.

SIU's loss to Marshall is nothing to scoff at, but it isn't as impressive as a win would have been, and as UNI showed this year, a close FBS loss doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I don't see how anyone can argue for SIU over Montana at this point. Both are undefeated vs. FCS teams, with Montana playing arguably the tougher schedule.

[Native]

Boy, I don't know about this. I view the Jacks game against SIU kinda like I do the PSU game for the Griz - a bit of an anomaly, with one team at the top of their game and the other kinda near the bottom. The Jacks are a better team than what showed up at the SIU game, and any team that takes them lightly is probably in for a surprise. I wouldn't bet on them to win the NC, but I could definitely see them successfully playing a spoiler role.

(I'll be admittedly torn if (OK, when) SDSU is matched up against a BSC team. I like their team, but gotta pull for the big fluffy whenever possible. :)

Don't forget that the Jackrabbits lost to Cal Poly this year.

[Native]

Like I said in another thread, I think UNI's loss today kills SIU's chance for the top seed.

Now you have a SIU team that has only one win over a playoff caliber team in SDSU, and one win over a mediocre UNI team.

Wins over the #10 GPI SDSU and #7 UNI (Obviously overrated)
Next closest wins are #33 Missouri State and #34 Youngstown State

Compare that to Montana

Wins over two likely playoff teams in EWU and WSU, with mediocre wins over Montana State, UC Davis, and Northern Arizona.

Wins over #11 GPI EWU, #14 WSU, #20 MSU, #23 NAU, and #27 UC Davis.

Montana's only downside is the horrible performance against ISU, which I feel the games vs. NoCo and MSU showed was nothing more than a very good team playing a horrible, horrible game.

SIU's loss to Marshall is nothing to scoff at, but it isn't as impressive as a win would have been, and as UNI showed this year, a close FBS loss doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I don't see how anyone can argue for SIU over Montana at this point. Both are undefeated vs. FCS teams, with Montana playing arguably the tougher schedule.

Well said! UNI's loss changed a lot of things, not just the bubble team at-large bids.

With today's wins by Weber and Sac State, the Big Sky stands 10-2 in FCS out-of-conference games.

[uofmman1122]

Well said! UNI's loss changed a lot of things, not just the bubble team at-large bids.

With today's wins by Weber and Sac State, the Big Sky stands 10-2 in FCS out-of-conference games.Even with all that said, the only thing keeping Montana in the #1 or #2 seed argument is being undefeated.

Richmond and Nova make good cases against us. :(

[Go Apps]

Not sure if Montana will grab one of the top two

[Stonewall D]

The following are teams more deserving of a #4 seed than Montana.

App State
William & Mary
New Hampshire
Elon
UNI
South Carolina State
McNeese State

Montana will be punished for its weak out of conference schedule.

[Stonewall D]

I believe that App State will be seeded higher than Montana. Montana does not deserve to be seeded in the top 4. If it is seeded at all, it will be seeded #4. The committee will punish Montana for its weak out of conference schedule. Head to Head, App State is much better than Montana.

[NovaHater]

They might not be willing to give the CAA 2 Seeds.

Why not, they gave the MVF 2 seeds in 07.

[JohnStOnge]

I believe that App State will be seeded higher than Montana. Montana does not deserve to be seeded in the top 4. If it is seeded at all, it will be seeded #4. The committee will punish Montana for its weak out of conference schedule. Head to Head, App State is much better than Montana.

Whether or not Montana is really better than App State is another debate but I don't think there's any way Montana's not going to be seeded higher than the Mountaineers will be. In fact the Mountaineers probably aren't going to be seeded. I think you can kind of get an idea of how "opinions" tend to go by looking at this page: http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm . As I type it's still as it was before this weekends games but the only thing I can think of that's likely to change who the top 4 are is William & Mary losing to Richmond. That'll move Montana up to 4 from 5 and Appalachian State will probably be at 5.

Yesterday Appalachian State won but struggled with Western Carolina so I don't see perceptions that have had Montana rated slightly higher will change.

[mlbowl]

I believe that App State will be seeded higher than Montana. Montana does not deserve to be seeded in the top 4. If it is seeded at all, it will be seeded #4. The committee will punish Montana for its weak out of conference schedule. Head to Head, App State is much better than Montana.


Please feel free to attach some of these...they are here for you and they are free!!!

xlolx:D:p

[Houndawg]

Any team whose highlight of the season is a loss in week1 has no shot of getting into the playoffs. UNI has not done jack against anybody of note since then and just lost to a mediocre team. I think Colgate is the team that Weber has to worry about, as crazy as that sounds.

I think so too, UNI peaked too early, were a much better team in the first half of the season

xoopsx 7-4 with a major choke job against the Griz ............. makes Weeber pretty shaky, imo......

[Go Apps]

Whether or not Montana is really better than App State is another debate but I don't think there's any way Montana's not going to be seeded higher than the Mountaineers will be. In fact the Mountaineers probably aren't going to be seeded. I think you can kind of get an idea of how "opinions" tend to go by looking at this page: http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm . As I type it's still as it was before this weekends games but the only thing I can think of that's likely to change who the top 4 are is William & Mary losing to Richmond. That'll move Montana up to 4 from 5 and Appalachian State will probably be at 5.

Yesterday Appalachian State won but struggled with Western Carolina so I don't see perceptions that have had Montana rated slightly higher will change.

The reason that ASU did not play as well was because they did not play Armanti - holding him out for the playoffs and giving the backup some experience...

[mlbowl]

I think so too, UNI peaked too early, were a much better team in the first half of the season

xoopsx 7-4 with a major choke job against the Griz ............. makes Weeber pretty shaky, imo......


UNI's major choke job against SIU makes them pretty shaky, imo......

[Houndawg]

Like I said in another thread, I think UNI's loss today kills SIU's chance for the top seed.

Now you have a SIU team that has only one win over a playoff caliber team in SDSU, and one win over a mediocre UNI team.

Wins over the #10 GPI SDSU and #7 UNI (Obviously overrated)
Next closest wins are #33 Missouri State and #34 Youngstown State

Compare that to Montana

Wins over two likely playoff teams in EWU and WSU, with mediocre wins over Montana State, UC Davis, and Northern Arizona.

Wins over #11 GPI EWU, #14 WSU, #20 MSU, #23 NAU, and #27 UC Davis.

Montana's only downside is the horrible performance against ISU, which I feel the games vs. NoCo and MSU showed was nothing more than a very good team playing a horrible, horrible game.

SIU's loss to Marshall is nothing to scoff at, but it isn't as impressive as a win would have been, and as UNI showed this year, a close FBS loss doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I don't see how anyone can argue for SIU over Montana at this point. Both are undefeated vs. FCS teams, with Montana playing arguably the tougher schedule.

UNI was #2 when SIU beat them at their place. Go back and read the posts from the time, the whole FCS community thought they were the best team in the division. It was a good win when it happened.xnodx

[Houndawg]

UNI's major choke job against SIU makes them pretty shaky, imo......

And they shouldn't be in the playoffs..........xwhistlex

[Houndawg]

Don't forget that the Jackrabbits lost to Cal Poly this year.

Meh. The Jacks starting QB went down.

[mlbowl]

And they shouldn't be in the playoffs..........xwhistlex

Keep a whistlin'...hopefully the selection committee will be able to make all your dreams come true with an easy first round matchup with EWU or WSUxthumbsupx

[Houndawg]

Keep a whistlin'...hopefully the selection committee will be able to make all your dreams come true with an easy first round matchup with EWU or WSUxthumbsupx

Huh? xconfusedx Are you saying you think UNI does still deserve consideration after their major choke job against SIU?

Pretty sure that it will be EIU taking the bus to C'dale in the first round. xnodx

[ngineer]

Colgate would be on the road no matter what.

Fingers crossed for 'gate. Who woulda thunk a week ago!

[Rekdiver]

what ever team from the CAA finished 3rd will travel west not south.....remember the committee putting Wofford at Montana 3 years ago?

[MacThor]

what ever team from the CAA finished 3rd will travel west not south.....remember the committee putting Wofford at Montana 3 years ago?

Wofford finished third in the CAA?

[uofmman1122]

UNI was #2 when SIU beat them at their place. Go back and read the posts from the time, the whole FCS community thought they were the best team in the division. It was a good win when it happened.xnodxCongratulations on beating the most overrated team in FCS this year. xrolleyesx xlolx

[kalm]

I believe that App State will be seeded higher than Montana. Montana does not deserve to be seeded in the top 4. If it is seeded at all, it will be seeded #4. The committee will punish Montana for its weak out of conference schedule. Head to Head, App State is much better than Montana.

Montana went undefeated playing 8 teams in the GPI top 40. xcoffeex

[Aho_Old_Guy]

3 conferences having 3 teams in (IMO) makes the whole thing tough. Here is my shot at it.


EIU
1) SIU

EWU @
SDSU

Weber St @
McNeese

Elon @
4)Richmond



HC @
2) Nova

W&M@
SCSU

NH@
ASU

SFA @
3) Montana

I like this --- except you need to switch EWU@SDSU & Weber St@McNeese in the bracket with W&M@SCSU & NH@ASU.

(better 'East-West' regionalism)

-
-
-

edit: Oops!

And maybe switch EIU@SIU with HC@'Nova .....

[yosef1969]

Holy Cross at (1) Villanova
UNH at SCSU

William and Mary at ASU
Elon at (4) Richmond

SDSU at (2) Montana
EWU at McNeese State

EIU at (3) SIU
SFA at Weber State

Yeah I know the CAA and BSC teams are all on the same sides of the bracket but if the committee is concerned about limiting travel cost it may just play out that way this year.

[BDKJMU]

W&M @
ASU



ASU/W&M



ASU
W&M




Wiliam & Mary at Appalachain State




App State (SOCON) 9-2 vs. William & Mary (CAA) 9-2



App St v W&M




William & Mary @
ASU




William & Mary at ASU




William & Mary vs. Appalachian State




William and Mary at ASU



On the W&M @ UR thread on Saturday after the game a # of people posted that W&M was going to be @ ASU, and I replied a # of times that no, ASU was going to be hosting SCSU. I can't understand why so many people had W&M @ ASU when Boone is about 243 miles from Orangeburg and 358 from Williamsburg. xconfusedx Anyone who knew the history of the committee would figure that SCSU would be @ ASU. Props to profane for being the only one on this thread who posted a bracket guess this past weekend who apparently consulted mapquest and got the ASU/SCSU matchup right.



South Carolina State (10-1; MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2; SOCON Auto-Bid)

[MacThor]

On the W&M @ UR thread on Saturday after the game a # of people posted that W&M was going to be @ ASU, and I replied a # of times that no, ASU was going to be hosting SCSU. I can't understand why so many people had W&M @ ASU when Boone is about 243 miles from Orangeburg and 358 from Williamsburg. xconfusedx Anyone who knew the history of the committee would figure that SCSU would be @ ASU. Props to profane for being the only one on this thread who posted a bracket guess this past weekend who apparently consulted mapquest and got the ASU/SCSU matchup right.

Or maybe they consulted their maps and realized Weber State is over 2000 miles from Williamsburg, and UNH is about 1700 from McNeese State.

[BDKJMU]

Or maybe they consulted their maps and realized Weber State is over 2000 miles from Williamsburg, and UNH is about 1700 from McNeese State.

No- once a team gets on a plane it doesn't matter if its 1,000, 1,500, or 2,000 miles. But after they picked the 4 teams for each seed for the remaining 8 if you have a team A that is 200 something miles from team B and 300 something miles from team C, they are going to match up team A and B. Logic would dictate that.

[MacThor]

No- once a team gets on a plane it doesn't matter if its 1,000, 1,500, or 2,000 miles. But after they picked the 4 teams for each seed for the remaining 8 if you have a team A that is 200 something miles from team B and 300 something miles from team C, they are going to match up team A and B. Logic would dictate that.

So the committee decided to put two teams on planes instead of one.

Congratulations on your prediction.