FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions

[Profane]

Full Post:

http://prof-fan.blogspot.com/2009/11/fcs-playoff-watch-2009-3-midweek-update.html

Summary:

Predictions

Seeds:
1. Villanova
2. Southern Illinois
3. Montana
4. Richmond

Auto-Bids:
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (CAA)
South Carolina State (MEAC)
Southern Illinois (MVFC)
Eastern Illinois (OVC)
Holy Cross (Patriot)
Appalachian State (SOCON)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large Bids: (in order of comfort)
Richmond (CAA)
William & Mary (CAA)
Northern Iowa (MVFC)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Elon (SOCON)
South Dakota State (MVFC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
McNeese State (Southland)

Bubble:
Lafayette (Patriot)
Weber State (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)

GO DAWGS!

[WrenFGun]

I agree with most of your assessment but don't think McNeese needs to worry, win or lose. Disagree that Elon is safe with a loss.

[4th and What?]

Although their computer numbers are soft, the fact that this comes from a team in an auto-qualifying conference means that the committee will be tempted to take them

Is this correct? I assume not by any sort of rule, but is there a tendancy for this historically? I would guess this relationship is much more related to strength of conference than simply if they are an AQ conference.

And agreed with Wren regarding Elon. The only teams 100% (or maybe 99%) safe with a loss this week would be App St, Montana, Holy Cross, Villanova, Richmond, W&M, SIU, SC State and EIU.

UNH is more like 98% safe with a loss. McNeese could be in trouble with a loss combined with wins by all the other win-and-in teams including Montana St, but if any of the other win-and-in teams lose, the App St victory should give McNeese the edge.

Elon has no top 25 win, so cannot afford a loss to streaking Samford.

[PhoenixMan]

Elon loses and I feel sure they don't get in, and I don't think they should get in. Are they good enough to compete in the playoffs? I think so, but the jury is out. I do know this. We have played 2 good teams...Wake Forest and App St....and neither game was close, we got whipped. Did we blow out some so-so teams? Yep. BEAT SAMFORD or chalk it up as another late season melt down. But, I think we will win, and get our first play-off bid.

GO PHOENIX!!

[kirkblitz]

no way laffy is higher up then lib

[Profane]

"Although their computer numbers are soft, the fact that this comes from a team in an auto-qualifying conference means that the committee will be tempted to take them."


Is this correct? I assume not by any sort of rule, but is there a tendancy for this historically? I would guess this relationship is much more related to strength of conference than simply if they are an AQ conference.

The precedent is 2005, when the Patriot League sent two 8-3 teams, Colgate and Lafayette, to the playoffs. The resume for Lafayette this year, the potential Patriot League at-large, is stronger than in 2005.

Given the example of Maine last year, I will have to disagree with you guys on Elon - after all, they do have 8 DI wins. Not that I think they are losing on Saturday!

[ToTheLeft]

Speaking of precedents, LU looks pretty similar to Coastal a couple years back when they got in...

[furpal87]

I hope Elon wins and erases all doubt, but I think even with a loss they are in, because I don't see that many teams that could jump them except for Montana State. Samford is not a terrible team (6-5 with a win), who had a FG blocked on the last play at Furman, nearly beat UCF, and a 4th qtr. collapse against Citadel from having a shot at a playoff berth, too.

[furpal87]

Speaking of precedents, LU looks pretty similar to Coastal a couple years back when they got in...

But didn't Coastal beat JMU that year?

[siuham]

But didn't Coastal beat JMU that year?

xlolx

[ToTheLeft]

But didn't Coastal beat JMU that year?

They also had a couple of SoCon losses, both to "middle of the pack" SoCon teams, neither of which finished in the top 25. (GSo and Elon)

[furpal87]

Look, I would love to see Liberty make it, for three reasons: 1) It would be a major step in the founder's dream of big-time football, one of my best friends is an '89 grad, and my godfather was the head coach there in the 90's and early 2000's. I'm just asking who they have beaten.

[APPS]

Predictions

Seeds:
1. Villanova
2. Southern Illinois
3. Montana
4. Richmond

Auto-Bids:
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (CAA)
South Carolina State (MEAC)
Southern Illinois (MVFC)
Eastern Illinois (OVC)
Holy Cross (Patriot)
Appalachian State (SOCON)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large Bids: (in order of comfort)
Richmond (CAA)
William & Mary (CAA)
Northern Iowa (MVFC)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Elon (SOCON)
South Dakota State (MVFC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
McNeese State (Southland)

Looks just like the GPI thread except for the predicted AQ and order of seeds.

[Grabholdofyosef]

They also had a couple of SoCon losses, both to "middle of the pack" SoCon teams, neither of which finished in the top 25. (GSo and Elon)
CC had a close loss to Elon and a blowout loss to GSU who was ranked at the time I think. But I think the wins against a 7-4 Wofford team and a playoff bound Furman team were big reasons they got in. Liberty does not have a victory as strong as those two.

[SuperJon]

If you wanted to stretch it, you could say the win over 8-3 Furman was the same as the win over 9-2 Lafayette (assuming they win this week). The biggest difference is we don't have that second win.

I think that right now, there is one spot left. That spot will go to one of the Big Sky teams. However, if Elon loses, I think we take their spot.

[Grabholdofyosef]

If you wanted to stretch it, you could say the win over 8-3 Furman was the same as the win over 9-2 Lafayette (assuming they win this week). The biggest difference is we don't have that second win.

I think that right now, there is one spot left. That spot will go to one of the Big Sky teams. However, if Elon loses, I think we take their spot.
That would be a big stretch. Furman was highly ranked most of the year and lost to UNC by 3 and ASU. Maybe the Wofford win could compare to Lafayette but as you said there is no other signature win for Liberty.

But 2006 is such a long time ago. Back to the present.

I think Liberty and Lafayette will be the next in line and Liberty would probably get the nod with the head to head win if two EWU, MSU, Elon, UNI, SFA, or McNeese lose

[4th and What?]

I think Liberty and Lafayette will be the next in line and Liberty would probably get the nod with the head to head win if two EWU, MSU, Elon, UNI, SFA, or McNeese lose

I don't think McNeese can fall behind Liberty, even with a loss. And I would add SD State to that list, if they lose they will have closed the season out with three straight losses (two would be "quality"). I also think Weber St will be in the discussion with Liberty/Lafayette.

[Bogus Megapardus]

no way laffy is higher up then lib

And no way that Penn (a conference champion whom it defeated) is higher than Lafayette, but that's how the dice roll at times. Lafayette has wins over two top 25 teams (Penn and Colgate), has defeated a conference champ and its runner-up (Penn and Harvard) and it is located near the New York metropolitan area which otherwise wouldn't have a horse in the race. It's losses are to Libbie (by a score at the very beginning of the season) and to #13 Holy Cross (by two missed extra points). I'm not saying it will happen, but if a slot opens, the committee could select Lafayette and it would have a rational basis for doing so. :)

[Keenan]

Look, I would love to see Liberty make it, for three reasons: 1) It would be a major step in the founder's dream of big-time football, one of my best friends is an '89 grad, and my godfather was the head coach there in the 90's and early 2000's. I'm just asking who they have beaten.

Who did the 2008 Maine team beat?

[JMUNJ08]

Who did the 2008 Maine team beat?

CAA is King. JMU and UD are still on the bubble. Watch out!xeyebrowx

[jlcharles]

Who did the 2008 Maine team beat?

A bad UMass team. Lost to every other good team they played. I don't recall who else was on the bubble with them. But they probably didn't deserve a bid.

[4th and What?]

Who did the 2008 Maine team beat?

I thought the committee either stated outright or at least insinuated that Maine was selected more on the notion that they had no "bad losses" rather than a strong win. This I think would relate perfectly to both Lafayette and Liberty.


For that matter, it also relates to Elon and UNI.

[Tribe07]

A bad UMass team. Lost to every other good team they played. I don't recall who else was on the bubble with them. But they probably didn't deserve a bid.

I beg to differ. There is no argument whatsover for Maine getting in over William & Mary last year. We had a signature win over a playoff bound top ten ranked team (UNH) and Maine didn't. Their eighth win (8-4) over nobody forced the UMass AD on the committee to push for them instead of W&M (7-4). Northern CAA bias. And frankly, the north has sucked, last year and this season.

Not that I'm bitter or anything...

[bluehenbillk]

CAA is King. JMU and UD are still on the bubble. Watch out!xeyebrowx

Please. Don't embarass yourself with a comment like that.

[Grabholdofyosef]

I beg to differ. There is no argument whatsover for Maine getting in over William & Mary last year. We had a signature win over a playoff bound top ten ranked team (UNH) and Maine didn't. Their eighth win (8-4) over nobody forced the UMass AD on the committee to push for them instead of W&M (7-4). Northern CAA bias. And frankly, the north has sucked, last year and this season.

Not that I'm bitter or anything...
That surprised me last year witht he Maine selection.

If Richmond beats W&M, I am afraid ASU will see W&M in the 1st or 2nd rd (if we both win our 1st rd) and it could end up like last year; losing to the eventual national champion : ( If youre gonna go down, go down to the champ!

[TTUEagles]

Is this correct? I assume not by any sort of rule, but is there a tendancy for this historically? I would guess this relationship is much more related to strength of conference than simply if they are an AQ conference.

And agreed with Wren regarding Elon. The only teams 100% (or maybe 99%) safe with a loss this week would be App St, Montana, Holy Cross, Villanova, Richmond, W&M, SIU, SC State and EIU.



If EIU (6-1 in the OVC) loses tonight (vs TSU) and EKU (5-2) wins at Jacksonville St (Saturday), then EKU is the OVC representative by virture of EKU defeating EIU earlier this season...I think it's a longshot, but...

[UR Spider]

I know some people in Durham that might object to your comment.

[UR Spider]

I thought the committee either stated outright or at least insinuated that Maine was selected more on the notion that they had no "bad losses" rather than a strong win. This I think would relate perfectly to both Lafayette and Liberty.


For that matter, it also relates to Elon, UNI, and Richmond.

- Sorry forgot to quote the post I was replying too. (Still getting use to the system)

[gophoenix]

Is this correct? I assume not by any sort of rule, but is there a tendancy for this historically? I would guess this relationship is much more related to strength of conference than simply if they are an AQ conference.

And agreed with Wren regarding Elon. The only teams 100% (or maybe 99%) safe with a loss this week would be App St, Montana, Holy Cross, Villanova, Richmond, W&M, SIU, SC State and EIU.

UNH is more like 98% safe with a loss. McNeese could be in trouble with a loss combined with wins by all the other win-and-in teams including Montana St, but if any of the other win-and-in teams lose, the App St victory should give McNeese the edge.

Elon has no top 25 win, so cannot afford a loss to streaking Samford.

Furman was ranked when we beat them. That seems to be enough to satisfy "strength" to UNH fans.

[4th and What?]

Furman was ranked when we beat them. That seems to be enough to satisfy "strength" to UNH fans.

You nullified your own argument with your second sentance.


I know some people in Durham that might object to your comment.

Yeah, I'm an idiot, dunno why I forgot that.