11/16/2009 Gridiron Power Index (GPI), Villanova No. 1

[CSN-info]

http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/skins/andreas_01/img/GPI.JPG

11/16/2009 Gridiron Power Index (GPI), Villanova No. 1
College Sporting News

The Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the index ranking for the NCAA Division I FCS and a top indicator of at-large playoff selection continues with Villanova in the top spot on the eve of playoff selection.

The Colonial Athletic Association, the largest league in the FCS has seven teams in the top 25; the Big Sky Conference has five; the Missouri Valley Football Conference has three; the Ohio Valley, Southern, and Southland Conferences have two each; and the Big South and Mid-Eastern Athletic Conferences plus the Ivy and Patriot Leagues have one each.

(Games through 11/16/09)

The Final 2009 GPI will be released once all the college football games have been played, in January 2010.

11/16/2009 GPI Top 25

1. Villanova (1.50)
2. S Illinois (3.13)
3. Richmond (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.63)
5. Montana (3.88)
6. Appalachian St (6.13)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. New Hampshire (10.00)
10. S Dakota St (10.25)
11. E Washington (12.88)
12. S Carolina St (14.88)
13. Jacksonville St (15.00)
14. Weber St (15.50)
15. McNeese St (15.63)
16. SF Austin (16.00)
17. Liberty (16.25)
18. James Madison (18.00)
19. Delaware (18.25)
20. Montana St (19.63)
21. Holy Cross (19.75)
22. E Illinois (20.00)
23. N Arizona (23.38)
24. Penn (23.63)
25. Massachusetts (24.13)

Full GPI Detail:
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/GPI/20091116gpi.html

Conference Ranking:
Rank, League, Total Average

1. Colonial Athletic Association (25.40)
2. Big Sky Conference (30.29)
3. Great West Conference (31.15)
4. Southern Conference (31.72)
5. Missouri Valley Football Conference (33.40)
6. Southland Conference (40.50)
7. Big South Conference (49.95)
8. Ohio Valley Conference (50.70)
9. Patriot League (51.40)
10. Ivy League (51.75)
11. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (60.14)
12. Southwestern Athletic Conference (64.23)
13. Northeast Conference (66.22)
14. Pioneer Football League (73.40)
15. Independents (75.21)

Read more ... (http://tiny.cc/OH6P6)

[JMUNJ08]

JMU is the best 5 win team out there!

[WVAPPmountaineer]

How in the world is the Great West rated higher than the SoCon, MVC and Southland? ---- especially the MVC? ----

[WrenFGun]

JMU is the best 5 win team out there!

I was very impressed with JMU this weekend, actually. First time I'd really paid any attention to Moats. What a beast. Thorpe looked like a mini-Landers out there at times.

[89Hen]

11. E Washington (12.88)
Wins over: Western Oregon, Northern Colorado, SacSt, Idaho State, Montana State, Portland State and SUU, while losing to Montana and Weber (and Cal). Best win is MSU. #11? xeyebrowx

[CSN-info]

GPI INDICATES

SEEDS
1. Villanova (1.50)
2. S Illinois (3.13)
3. Richmond (3.25)
5. Montana (3.88)

AQ 1. Villanova (1.50)
AQ 2. S Illinois (3.13)
AQ 5. Montana (3.88)
AQ 6. Appalachian St (6.13)
AQ 12. S Carolina St (14.88)
AQ 15. McNeese St (15.63)
AQ 21. Holy Cross (19.75)
AQ 22. E Illinois (20.00)

AT-LARGE
3. Richmond (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.63)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. New Hampshire (10.00)
10. S Dakota St (10.25)
11. E Washington (12.88)
16. SF Austin (16.00)

Since Richmond plays W&M this week the seed goes to higher GPI Richmond. 4 loss and ineligible teams removed. AQ and seeds based on GPI.

[Skjellyfetti]

Hey CSN-Info, you know seeds aren't handed out 1-4 of the GPI, right?

[Appattk]

GPI INDICATES

SEEDS
1. Villanova (1.50)
2. S Illinois (3.13)
3. Richmond (3.25)
5. Montana (3.88)

AQ 1. Villanova (1.50)
AQ 2. S Illinois (3.13)
AQ 5. Montana (3.88)
AQ 6. Appalachian St (6.13)
AQ 12. S Carolina St (14.88)
AQ 15. McNeese St (15.63)
AQ 21. Holy Cross (19.75)
AQ 22. E Illinois (20.00)

AT-LARGE
3. Richmond (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.63)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. New Hampshire (10.00)
10. S Dakota St (10.25)
11. E Washington (12.88)
16. SF Austin (16.00)

Since Richmond plays W&M this week the seed goes to higher GPI Richmond. 4 loss and ineligible teams removed. AQ and seeds based on GPI.

I will say that this is looking like the BEST field of 16 we've seen in a long time... Definitely no sure fire "wins" for anyone!

It's gonna make this post season that much better!

[Pard4Life]

Lafayette is 26. How is Penn 24? Flip us and I'd be cool with it...

[CSN-info]

Hey CSN-Info, you know seeds aren't handed out 1-4 of the GPI, right?

Neither are AQs. Seeds are given to best 4 teams in the eyes of the committee. I wrote "AQ and seeds based on GPI." Read this article: "How The 2009 D-I Football Championship Works" by CSN: http://tiny.cc/u7jr0

[JMUNJ08]

I was very impressed with JMU this weekend, actually. First time I'd really paid any attention to Moats. What a beast. Thorpe looked like a mini-Landers out there at times.

Thanks for the lovexthumbsupx

Thorpe has that potential and more. Just not as big and durable which may be an issue (Dudzik). Definitely excited for the next 3 seasons to watch him.

Hopefully those outside the CAA will give Moats some love. I don't think he hasn't had a non-jaw dropping moment at least once in a game all season.

[OhioHen]

How in the world is the Great West rated higher than the SoCon, MVC and Southland? ---- especially the MVC? ----

SoCon - no WCU to pull the average down

MVC - no Indiana State and Western Illinois to pull the average down

SLC - no Nicholls State and Northwestern State to pull the average down

[Pard4Life]

SoCon - no WCU to pull the average down

MVC - no Indiana State and Western Illinois to pull the average down

SLC - no Nicholls State and Northwestern State to pull the average down

Hmm, yeah, can you say Georgetown, anyone?

[boonegoon]

SoCon - no WCU to pull the average down

MVC - no Indiana State and Western Illinois to pull the average down

SLC - no Nicholls State and Northwestern State to pull the average down

Yeah Bottom dweller WCU whips EKU, # 2 in OHio Valley. Kind of makes you wonder who rates the percieved conference strenths.

[Squealofthepig]

I will say that this is looking like the BEST field of 16 we've seen in a long time... Definitely no sure fire "wins" for anyone!

It's gonna make this post season that much better!

100% agree - should be a fun year - I expect to see some road upsets much more this year than any previous year. Still think it'll be one CAA team vs. someone else, but no idea who the national champ will be - think where you play will affect a team's chances as much as how good they are in getting to Chatty.

[Anovafan]

GPI INDICATES

SEEDS
1. Villanova (1.50)
2. S Illinois (3.13)
3. Richmond (3.25)
5. Montana (3.88)

AQ 1. Villanova (1.50)
AQ 2. S Illinois (3.13)
AQ 5. Montana (3.88)
AQ 6. Appalachian St (6.13)
AQ 12. S Carolina St (14.88)
AQ 15. McNeese St (15.63)
AQ 21. Holy Cross (19.75)
AQ 22. E Illinois (20.00)

AT-LARGE
3. Richmond (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.63)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. New Hampshire (10.00)
10. S Dakota St (10.25)
11. E Washington (12.88)
16. SF Austin (16.00)

Since Richmond plays W&M this week the seed goes to higher GPI Richmond. 4 loss and ineligible teams removed. AQ and seeds based on GPI.

That looks pretty accurate for the field. Only change could be Lafayette, Liberty or Montana St. instead of E. Washington depending on how things shake out this weekend.

[19Duke97]

Someone needs to inform the voters of a few discrepancies (from most ridiculous to least):
41T Prairie View SWAC 7-1 34.50 216 36 43 43 48 34 46 51 21 20 19
53 Florida A&M MEAC 7-3 43.13 269 35 54 54 61 48 56 57 26 26 24
37T Colgate PL 9-2 33.50 202 28 42 38 36 42 44 47 23 22 21

[CSN-info]

That looks pretty accurate for the field. Only change could be Lafayette, Liberty or Montana St. instead of E. Washington depending on how things shake out this weekend.

Yes, the committee does something unusual every year. We describe that GPI deserving team as "WOOFED" and last year it was W&M.

[Aho_Old_Guy]

That looks pretty accurate for the field. Only change could be Lafayette, Liberty or Montana St. instead of E. Washington depending on how things shake out this weekend.

Yup.

I vote we temp slot Liberty to prevent bandwidth/thread overload through the end of the week xrolleyesx but I think E-Dub will round out the field (unless MSU comes up 'bigtime')

[Silenoz]

Hey CSN-Info, you know seeds aren't handed out 1-4 of the GPI, right?

That's why they said indicates

And I'm also kind of surprised by how high EWU is. That ass-kicking at home to Weber should be dragging them down, I would think

[Eight Legger]

Thanks for the lovexthumbsupx

Thorpe has that potential and more. Just not as big and durable which may be an issue (Dudzik). Definitely excited for the next 3 seasons to watch him.

Hopefully those outside the CAA will give Moats some love. I don't think he hasn't had a non-jaw dropping moment at least once in a game all season.

I can't say that I don't not disagree with you there!

[SCSUBULLDOG1]

This is a joke. How can SCSU have 1 loss and still behind all these other teams with 3 losses. Oh and that 1 loss did come to a BCS school. This poll is so different from the other polls that it is truely a joke.

[SCSUBULLDOG1]

I guess if you get beat by FCS teams it means more than getting beat by BCS teams.

[GannonFan]

This is a joke. How can SCSU have 1 loss and still behind all these other teams with 3 losses. Oh and that 1 loss did come to a BCS school. This poll is so different from the other polls that it is truely a joke.

You can't truly be shocked. Come on, have you not noticed the lack of regard for the MEAC as a conference over the past, say, decade? Conferences get respect for big OOC wins during the year and good, recent playoff performances, two things the MEAC has been lacking for quite some time. SCSU gets the next opportunity this year to begin reversing that perception. xthumbsupx

[kalm]

That's why they said indicates

And I'm also kind of surprised by how high EWU is. That ass-kicking at home to Weber should be dragging them down, I would think

I'm a little surprised to. But the Big Sky is really good. There's 5 teams in the top 25 and one in the top 5. Our 3 losses are to quality teams Cal, WSU, and Montana and evidently don't hurt that much. Wins against MSU, SAC ST., and SUU are probably under-rated by some.

[kalm]

That also would explain why UNI and SDSU are so high. All losses to quality teams.

[UNH Fanboi]

I guess if you get beat by FCS teams it means more than getting beat by BCS teams.

No. The GPI is a composite of computer and human rankings. SC State is ranked where they are because they haven't beaten anyone good. Computer rankings place a premium on victories over good teams. Computers don't just rank teams highly because they have a lot of wins over crappy teams. The teams ranked above SC State have wins over better teams, and their losses were also to good teams.

To take an extreme example, I could go 10-0 against my 10 year old cousin in one on one basketball, but does that prove I'm better than Kobe Bryant and LeBron James who went 5-5 against each other? Of course not. SC State's low ranking in computer polls is just a less extreme example of that principle.

If SC State doesn't like that methodology, they'll have a chance to prove themselves in the playoffs.

[Tribe4SF]

This poll is so different from the other polls that it is truely a joke.

The GPI is not a poll. Read the description of what it is, and it should make sense to you. While you may not like the computers ranking of SCSU, those ranking systems are objective. Every team is assigned a numerical ranking based on the same criteria. It's the computer power rankings that hurt SCSU in the GPI.

[andy7171]

Interesting. Villanova went from a 1.63 rating to 1.5 after beating Towson last weekend.

I guess the computer factors "complete and thorough a$$kicking" in there somewhere.

[molly]

All of the 7 computers in the GPI had Nova at #1 last week as well. Nova's overall rating dropped because they moved from #3 to #2 in the TSN poll, so I guess those voters factored "complete and thorough a$$kicking" in their ranking. xsmiley_wix

[JMUNJ08]

Interesting. Villanova went from a 1.63 rating to 1.5 after beating Towson last weekend.

I guess the computer factors "complete and thorough a$$kicking" in there somewhere.

They just leave it off when they transfer it to AGS xthumbsupx

[Khan4Cats]

I'm a little surprised to. But the Big Sky is really good. There's 5 teams in the top 25 and one in the top 5. Our 3 losses are to quality teams Cal, WSU, and Montana and evidently don't hurt that much. Wins against MSU, SAC ST., and SUU are probably under-rated by some.

So a win over a 4-6 Sac St. or 4-6 Southern Utah team is a good win?

Would that be the same Southern Utah team that lost by 24 to South Dakota. A team that is 5-5 and lost by almost 60 to UNI but is NOT considered a good win for UNI?

Okay, got it.

[EdubAlum]

a lot of E-Dub hate in this room.

[JMUNJ08]

a lot of E-Dub hate in this room.

No hate. Educate! xthumbsupx I like their chances of getting in as long as Montana takes care of business in the wilderness game. But there really isn't anything major separating them from the pack of AL candidates...

[Saluki09]

How in the world is the Great West rated higher than the SoCon, MVC and Southland? ---- especially the MVC? ----

They have a bloated SOS. Only 44 of their 50 games count toward computer rankings (since the 6 D2 games they played aren't calculated), and of those 44... 7 were against FBS teams. MVFC has played 92 games, 90 of which count, 9 against FBS.

GWFC 7/44 = 15.9% of their schedule against FBS
MVFC 9/90 = 10% of their schedule against FBS

[eastbayaggie]

They have a bloated SOS. Only 44 of their 50 games count toward computer rankings (since the 6 D2 games they played aren't calculated), and of those 44... 7 were against FBS teams. MVFC has played 92 games, 90 of which count, 9 against FBS.

GWFC 7/44 = 15.9% of their schedule against FBS
MVFC 9/90 = 10% of their schedule against FBS

If you look at the links at the bottom of the GPI, a cursory glance suggests that Massey, Laz Index, Self, and Ashburn calculate all divisions together - FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III, and NAIA. I'm quite sure the other computer rankings use some other formulas for D2 games as well.

[Geaux25]

Wow...

McNeese no. 15? May be a bit low to me, but I understand how they come up with these numbers. The bottom of the SLC is as bad as anywhere this year, however I figured with five teams being ranked at some point or another (UCA, Texas State, SELA, SFA, and McNeese), the conference strength would be a little bit higher.

I hope this doesn't hurt the Cowboys chances of hosting

[kalm]

So a win over a 4-6 Sac St. or 4-6 Southern Utah team is a good win?

Would that be the same Southern Utah team that lost by 24 to South Dakota. A team that is 5-5 and lost by almost 60 to UNI but is NOT considered a good win for UNI?

Okay, got it.

Yeah, that South Dakota who beat Cal Poly who beat SDSU who beat UNI.xrolleyesx

Read my next post and you'll understand I'm just speculating why EWU, UNI, and SDSU are so high, and like I said, I'm a little surprised to.

Quality is relative, and I would consider EWU's only true quality win MSU which is still a better win than any on UNI's schedule. But our win against the likes of SUU and Sac State are evidently a little more highly regarded in the GPI system - just like your wins against Missouri State and YSU. I'm also guessing your close loss to Iowa and SDSU's close loss to Minnesota are what have you ranked ahead of us.

Perhaps not so much edub hate as UNI nervousness. xthumbsupx

Perhaps now you've got it. xthumbsupx

[eastbayaggie]

How in the world is the Great West rated higher than the SoCon, MVC and Southland? ---- especially the MVC? ----

Apparently, the Great West Conference is made up of all above-average quality teams that just can't crack the top 25.

#27 UC Davis
#31 Southern Utah
#32 South Dakota
#35 Cal Poly
#44T North Dakota

All of the Great West Conference teams are in the second quintile of all 125 FCS teams.

[AshevilleApp]

This is a joke. How can SCSU have 1 loss and still behind all these other teams with 3 losses. Oh and that 1 loss did come to a BCS school. This poll is so different from the other polls that it is truely a joke.

I could be wrong, but the computer generated GPI scores come from the strength of teams that you played and their combined strength of schedule. Beating a 5-5 team that got its 5 wins against lower strength of schedule teams does not count toward your GPI rating as much as beating a 5-5 team that got quality wins against teams that had more difficult schedules. I'm pretty sure that it goes down to that level and does not just look at base record. Someone correct me if I'm wrong??

[UNH Fanboi]

They have a bloated SOS. Only 44 of their 50 games count toward computer rankings (since the 6 D2 games they played aren't calculated), and of those 44... 7 were against FBS teams. MVFC has played 92 games, 90 of which count, 9 against FBS.

GWFC 7/44 = 15.9% of their schedule against FBS
MVFC 9/90 = 10% of their schedule against FBS

Playing FBS games can only boost the strength of the conference if the teams WIN those FBS games. The GWFC is ranked so highly because they don't have any really crappy teams to bring down their average like every other conference.

[WrenFGun]

Wow...

McNeese no. 15? May be a bit low to me, but I understand how they come up with these numbers. The bottom of the SLC is as bad as anywhere this year, however I figured with five teams being ranked at some point or another (UCA, Texas State, SELA, SFA, and McNeese), the conference strength would be a little bit higher.

I hope this doesn't hurt the Cowboys chances of hosting

It won't. Unless you get paired with a seed, or potentially UNI or Appalachian State, you're going to host. You'll be able to outbid teams like EWU/Weber State/UNH/W&M/SDSU, if it comes down to it, I'd imagine.

[MacThor]

I will say that this is looking like the BEST field of 16 we've seen in a long time... Definitely no sure fire "wins" for anyone!

It's gonna make this post season that much better!

+1,000. Barring upsets this weekend, I believe this will be the field. It's nice to see higher quality AQ's all down the line.

[AshevilleApp]

This will be a great playoff field and at least we don't have a Division that will likely have 4-5 quality undefeated teams left at the end of the regular season with no hopes of figuring out who is the best.

[skinny_uncle]

What is ARC that is factored into the GPI? I probably knew at one time, but the brain is a bit fuzzy today.

[19Duke97]

This is a joke. How can SCSU have 1 loss and still behind all these other teams with 3 losses. Oh and that 1 loss did come to a BCS school. This poll is so different from the other polls that it is truely a joke.

If you apply this reasoning, ODU would be ranked.. sorry not all wins are created equal.

[eastbayaggie]

What is ARC that is factored into the GPI? I probably knew at one time, but the brain is a bit fuzzy today.

ARC (Adjusted Rankings of the Computers) = Sum of 5 computer ranking numbers (removing the max and min number from the 7 used)

[UNH Fanboi]

Think of it this way. A win over a good team gains you 2 points, and loss to that good team loses you 1 point. A win over a crappy team gains you 1 point, and loss to that crappy team loses you 2 points.

So a team that plays 9 good teams and goes 6-3 earns 6x2 - 3x1 = 9 points. A team that plays 8 crappy teams and 1 good team earns 8x1 - 1x1 = 7 points. That is how a 6-3 and team is ranked ahead of an 8-1 team.

Note that computer rankings do NOT simply give teams positive points for getting blown out by FBS teams, and I'm sick of that fallacy being thrown.

[IaaScribe]

CSN-info or anyone else who might be able to help, does anyone have a link to the 2006 GPI heading into the final week of the season (or even the one right before the playoffs)? I'm curious to where Coastal Carolina stood. Thanks.

[IaaScribe]

Never mind, found it.

[Native]

GPI INDICATES

SEEDS
1. Villanova (1.50)
2. S Illinois (3.13)
3. Richmond (3.25)
5. Montana (3.88)

AQ 1. Villanova (1.50)
AQ 2. S Illinois (3.13)
AQ 5. Montana (3.88)
AQ 6. Appalachian St (6.13)
AQ 12. S Carolina St (14.88)
AQ 15. McNeese St (15.63)
AQ 21. Holy Cross (19.75)
AQ 22. E Illinois (20.00)

AT-LARGE
3. Richmond (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.63)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. New Hampshire (10.00)
10. S Dakota St (10.25)
11. E Washington (12.88)
16. SF Austin (16.00)

Since Richmond plays W&M this week the seed goes to higher GPI Richmond. 4 loss and ineligible teams removed. AQ and seeds based on GPI.

Just skipping over the #14 team, with a convincing on-the-road beat down of the #11 team, are we?

Weber 31, Eastern Washington 13
Weber 27, Northern Arizona 9

xeyebrowx

[WMTribe90]

I think the GPI is nailing the top four. This should be the seeding based on the results of the season and SOS:

1) VU
2) SIU
3) WM/UR winner
4) Montana

Agree with others, this is a strong field with no obvious weak links.

[Keenan]

Never mind, found it.

Where were they?

[IaaScribe]

http://www.gobison.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=2400&ATCLID=694450

[BDKJMU]

I was very impressed with JMU this weekend, actually. First time I'd really paid any attention to Moats. What a beast. Thorpe looked like a mini-Landers out there at times.


Thanks for the lovexthumbsupx

Thorpe has that potential and more. Just not as big and durable which may be an issue (Dudzik). Definitely excited for the next 3 seasons to watch him.

Hopefully those outside the CAA will give Moats some love. I don't think he hasn't had a non-jaw dropping moment at least once in a game all season.


I can't say that I don't not disagree with you there!

Actually 2 weeks ago against Maine he was held sackless for the only time since Maryland, but still was in on a 1/2 doz tackles including one for a loss. Part of that was due to Maine using alot of 3 step drop with quick passes to try to neutralize Moats & the rest of the JMU pass rush. You also have to give credit to the listed at 6'6" 319 Maine LT- he did the best job blocking Moats I have seen all year. Give credit where credit is due, but I do think he was getting away with some holding though.

Last week against UMass Moats was in on 11 tackles, 2.5 for losses, including 1.5 sacks. He was abusing the 6'5", 330 lb UMass LT, supposedly a NFL draft prospect.

Leads nation in tackles for loss:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&div=IAA&rpt=IAA_playertacklesloss&site=org&div=IAA&dest=O

Leads the CAA and is tied for 4th in the nation in sacks:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&div=IAA&rpt=IAA_playerpasssacks&site=org&div=IAA&dest=O

Leads the nation in tackles by a DL. No one else is remotely close. In the top 98 leading tacklers in the nation there is only one DL- Moats- at 69, avg 8.3 a game, nearly unheard of #s for a DL.
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&rpt=IAA_playertotaltackles&site=org&div=IAA&dest=O
He's 8th in the CAA in tackles. Not another DL in the top 20.

[MacThor]

Just skipping over the #14 team, with a convincing on-the-road beat down of the #11 team, are we?

Weber 31, Eastern Washington 13
Weber 27, Northern Arizona 9

xeyebrowx

Just skipping over the "4 loss teams removed" disclosure, are we? xeyebrowx

[MacThor]

The field as projected divides quite nicely 8 "East" and 8 "West." The 4 seeds will also likely divide 2E & 2W. I'm betting no matter what order they seed them, they'll make sure if the seeds hold, the semis will both be E vs W.

I'll take a quick crack at it - I doubt they'll have a potential W&M vs Richmond rematch two weeks later, but here goes.

1) Villanova vs Holy Cross
ASU vs UNH

4) Montana vs SFA
UNI vs McNeese

3)Richmond vs SC St
W&M vs Elon

2) SIU vs EIU
SDSU vs EWU

[tribe_pride]

GPI INDICATES

SEEDS
1. Villanova (1.50)
2. S Illinois (3.13)
3. Richmond (3.25)
5. Montana (3.88)

AQ 1. Villanova (1.50)
AQ 2. S Illinois (3.13)
AQ 5. Montana (3.88)
AQ 6. Appalachian St (6.13)
AQ 12. S Carolina St (14.88)
AQ 15. McNeese St (15.63)
AQ 21. Holy Cross (19.75)
AQ 22. E Illinois (20.00)

AT-LARGE
3. Richmond (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.63)
7. Northern Iowa (8.13)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. New Hampshire (10.00)
10. S Dakota St (10.25)
11. E Washington (12.88)
16. SF Austin (16.00)

Since Richmond plays W&M this week the seed goes to higher GPI Richmond. 4 loss and ineligible teams removed. AQ and seeds based on GPI.

Why are you removing 4 loss teams. They are eligible unless they don't play all D-I teams. (See Maine last year who got in with a 8-4 record and still would have been on the radar with a 7-4 record)

[WMTribe90]

Actually 2 weeks ago against Maine he was held sackless for the only time since Maryland, but still was in on a 1/2 doz tackles including one for a loss. Part of that was due to Maine using alot of 3 step drop with quick passes to try to neutralize Moats & the rest of the JMU pass rush. You also have to give credit to the listed at 6'6" 319 Maine LT- he did the best job blocking Moats I have seen all year. Give credit where credit is due, but I do think he was getting away with some holding though.

Last week against UMass Moats was in on 11 tackles, 2.5 for losses, including 1.5 sacks. He was abusing the 6'5", 330 lb UMass LT, supposedly a NFL draft prospect.

Leads nation in tackles for loss:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&div=IAA&rpt=IAA_playertacklesloss&site=org&div=IAA&dest=O

Leads the CAA and is tied for 4th in the nation in sacks:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&div=IAA&rpt=IAA_playerpasssacks&site=org&div=IAA&dest=O

Leads the nation in tackles by a DL. No one else is remotely close. In the top 98 leading tacklers in the nation there is only one DL- Moats- at 69, avg 8.3 a game, nearly unheard of #s for a DL.
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&rpt=IAA_playertotaltackles&site=org&div=IAA&dest=O
He's 8th in the CAA in tackles. Not another DL in the top 20.

Moats is a heck of a player. So, I'm not taking anything away from him here really, but I find the tackle numbers a little suspect. He is credited with a ton of assisted tackles and asisted tackles for loss. The schools track these stats. My guess is there are alot JOP's being credited as assisted tackles.

Take away the assist numbers and Tracy and Moats have very similar numbers. When you consider that WM leads the conference in TOP and that WM's defense isn't on the field as much as JMU's, it puts Tracy's numbers in the proper perspective.

My money is on Tracy for DPOY in the CAA.

[MacThor]

Why are you removing 4 loss teams. They are eligible unless they don't play all D-I teams. (See Maine last year who got in with a 8-4 record and still would have been on the radar with a 7-4 record)

The committee has shown that given the choice they'll take an 8-win team over a 7-win team (see Maine vs W&M last year). It's not necessarily fair, of course. I agree that if their choice of the last team is between EWU & Weber St., they should give the nod to the head-to-head winner.

[Dukie95]

Moats is a heck of a player. So, I'm not taking anything away from him here really, but I find the tackle numbers a little suspect. He is credited with a ton of assisted tackles and asisted tackles for loss. The schools track these stats. My guess is there are alot JOP's being credited as assisted tackles.

Take away the assist numbers and Tracy and Moats have very similar numbers. When you consider that WM leads the conference in TOP and that WM's defense isn't on the field as much as JMU's, it puts Tracy's numbers in the proper perspective.

My money is on Tracy for DPOY in the CAA.

JMU's only had four home games and his lowest tackle/sack total this season came against Maine...a home game. His higest tackle totals were @UMass 11 and @Hofstra 10.

The TOP argument makes sense, but there's no home cooking at play here.

[19Duke97]

The field as projected divides quite nicely 8 "East" and 8 "West." The 4 seeds will also likely divide 2E & 2W. I'm betting no matter what order they seed them, they'll make sure if the seeds hold, the semis will both be E vs W.

I'll take a quick crack at it - I doubt they'll have a potential W&M vs Richmond rematch two weeks later, but here goes.

1) Villanova vs Holy Cross
ASU vs UNH

4) Montana vs SFA
UNI vs McNeese

3)Richmond vs SC St
W&M vs Elon

2) SIU vs EIU
SDSU vs EWU

That looks very reasonable, the only thing I could think maybe different is flipping Elon and SCSU and having W&M at SCSU. Then again, Sat could change things quickly.