SPECIAL REPORT: The CSN Way: Who's In?

[CSN-info]

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By Chuck Burton, The CSN Way Columnist

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This weekend saw six FCS teams clinch conference titles, five clinching autobids for the FCS playoffs, and one SWAC team’s clinching of a spot in the SWAC Championship game in December.

Who’s in, and who can still get in?

For all the scenarios for the remainder of the conference titles and postseason opportunities, check below the flip.

Read more ... (http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php/2009/11/16/special-report-the-csn-way-who-s-in?blog=5)

[Lehigh Football Nation]

New Hampshire (8-2)
Postseason: As long as they beat 5-5 Maine in the “Battle for the Brice-Cowell Musket” this weekend, the Wildcats are a mortal lock for an at-large spot. If they lose, they are probably in the field anyway - but it won’t be an easy night’s sleep with two losses (William & Mary) in their last two games.

xeyebrowx

[Bogus Megapardus]

Aren't people mostly concerned about Liberty's chances of getting a bid? Most think they should be awarded a home game . . . .

[crusader11]

Well done.

[Sly Fox]

Aren't people mostly concerned about Liberty's chances of getting a bid? Most think they should be awarded a home game . . . .

Dude, your team lost. Let it go.

[DetroitFlyer]

http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/skins/andreas_01/img/CSNWay.JPG

By Chuck Burton, The CSN Way Columnist

http://www.hudsoft.com/products/whosin/images/whosin-ref.jpg

This weekend saw six FCS teams clinch conference titles, five clinching autobids for the FCS playoffs, and one SWAC team’s clinching of a spot in the SWAC Championship game in December.

Who’s in, and who can still get in?

For all the scenarios for the remainder of the conference titles and postseason opportunities, check below the flip.

Read more ... (http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php/2009/11/16/special-report-the-csn-way-who-s-in?blog=5)

Dayton already has 8 Division I wins and is playoff eligible today! A win on Saturday over Marist would be FCS win #9, along with at least a share of the PFL title.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Dayton already has 8 Division I wins and is playoff eligible today! A win on Saturday over Marist would be FCS win #9, along with at least a share of the PFL title.

And a D-II loss :p

[kalm]

UNI: With their history in the playoffs, as long as they take care of business against 5-5 Illinois State this weekend, they seem to be a near-certain lock for one of the at-large bids to the playoffs.

I don't disagree with this statement at all but again no Big Sky love. The author ignores the fact the the BSC is 5-1 in it's last 6 first round games, has knocked off 3 seeds in the last 5 years on the road and excludes Montana State's chances completely from the article.

A little more digging please.

[Big Dawg]

Florida A&M (7-3)
Postseason: Their postseason chances took a terrible dive with their 25-0 loss to 5-5 Hampton this past weekend, but still could find themselves with eight Division I wins if they beat Bethune Cookman in the “Florida Classic” this weekend. They’d need some serious help, but they’re still in the conversation if they win this weekend.

Uhhhh...How many teams do we need to lose n order for that to happen??? A crap load, I assume.

Also I don't know if I would even wanna take the team we have, with all the injuries that we accumulated over the past couple of weeks, into the playoffs.

[DetroitFlyer]

And a D-II loss :p


Hard to argue with the facts.... All on the coaches. If Steve Valentino had been our QB in game one, we win easily.

I'm sure folks have not been watching closely, but Steve Valentino and Andrew Huck, (Butler's QB), have both won four PFL offensive player of the week honors. One has to think that this coming week will determine who wins PFL offensive player of the year....

More remarkable in Tino's case, is that last season, he was all PFL as a receiver and kick returner. Tino is perhaps the best overall athlete in all of FCS, but playing in the PFL has kept him under the radar.

[19Duke97]

When did EWU drop a loss and pickup an extra win? I see them at 7-3 not 8-2....

[joecooll6]

Wow, an article that mentions Drake, Butler and Central Connecticut's playoff hopes doesn't even have a blurb for Montana State?

Fail.

[MacThor]

Wow, an article that mentions Drake, Butler and Central Connecticut's playoff hopes doesn't even have a blurb for Montana State?

Fail.

Um, it's right there under "Other Possible At-Large."

Read the article much? Fail.

[DetroitFlyer]

Wow, an article that mentions Drake, Butler and Central Connecticut's playoff hopes doesn't even have a blurb for Montana State?

Fail.

Oh, I get it, Rob Ash used to coach at Drake, so there is kind of a tie in to the PFL....

In all honesty, Mr. Ash has done a great job in getting Montana State back on track, both on and off the field. I was sorry to see him leave Drake, but Montana State picked up a great coach.

[Pard4Life]

I don't disagree with this statement at all but again no Big Sky love. The author ignores the fact the the BSC is 5-1 in it's last 6 first round games, has knocked off 3 seeds in the last 5 years on the road and excludes Montana State's chances completely from the article.

A little more digging please.

Past performance is not indicative of future results... this is pretty standard during the selection process. We have heard this many times from NCAA committees. Now if you want to argue based upon the Big Sky's rating compared to other conferences this year, that's a better bet on getting more teams in.

[FCS Go!]

From the SFA section:

"may be able to shop a close loss to SMU and wins over McNeese State and Central Arkansas as reasons why they should host a first round playoff game"

Is the author talking about a seed here or is he unaware that home games are awarded based on a bid? There are a few other spots where the author seems to be under the impression that home games are awarded for on-field accomplishment rather than $$$. Nitpicky I know, but not understanding the process seems to undermine any analysis in the article.

[Pard4Life]

Finances aside, record and performance are taken into account when hosting. See the previous CSN article.

[Bogus Megapardus]

"When determining host sites for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, the committee decides the location based on quality of facility, revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, attendance history and potential, team’s performance (e.g., conference place finish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), student-athlete well-being (travel, missed class time, etc.), and previous crowd-control measures and crowd behavior of the prospective host institution."

[FCS Go!]

I stand corrected.

[19Duke97]

He has 8 potential seed teams - sorry I just don't see that many - maybe 6. SCSU and HC have no business being mentioned as seed potentials, IMO, sorry. FAMU is done, cooked, forget about it, so is Lafayette and Colgate.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

He has 8 potential seed teams - sorry I just don't see that many - maybe 6. SCSU and HC have no business being mentioned as seed potentials, IMO, sorry. FAMU is done, cooked, forget about it, so is Lafayette and Colgate.

You really don't think a potential 10-1 Holy Cross or a 10-1 SCSU has no chance to be a seed in a thermonuclear scenario? I'm not saying it's likely, but if all the current frontrunners for a seed lose, they have to be in the conversation...

Take Richmond/W&M out for a second. The thermonuclear scenario is the unlikely possibility that SEMO beats SIU, WCU beats App St, Delaware beats Villanova, and Montana State beats Montana. Who are the teams that become seeds in that case? Certainly the Richmond/W&M winner, but who else? Elon? Northern Iowa? SDSU? No way are 8-3 teams seeds before SCSU and HC.

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but it is still possible.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Uhhhh...How many teams do we need to lose n order for that to happen??? A crap load, I assume.

Also I don't know if I would even wanna take the team we have, with all the injuries that we accumulated over the past couple of weeks, into the playoffs.

Fair enough, but the truth is that if FAMU wins this weekend they will be one of a handful of teams that have eight Division I wins. For sure a bunch of teams have to lose, but there still has to be a small glimmer of hope that his possible. Believe me, weird stuff happens the last weekend of the year.

[19Duke97]

You really don't think a potential 10-1 Holy Cross or a 10-1 SCSU has no chance to be a seed in a thermonuclear scenario? I'm not saying it's likely, but if all the current frontrunners for a seed lose, they have to be in the conversation...

Take Richmond/W&M out for a second. The thermonuclear scenario is the unlikely possibility that SEMO beats SIU, WCU beats App St, Delaware beats Villanova, and Montana State beats Montana. Who are the teams that become seeds in that case? Certainly the Richmond/W&M winner, but who else? Elon? Northern Iowa? SDSU? No way are 8-3 teams seeds before SCSU and HC.

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but it is still possible.

I guess it's possible, but I have a better chance of winning the lottery.

[kalm]

Past performance is not indicative of future results... this is pretty standard during the selection process. We have heard this many times from NCAA committees. Now if you want to argue based upon the Big Sky's rating compared to other conferences this year, that's a better bet on getting more teams in.

What are ya, an investment commercial?;)

I was responding the reporter's own reasoning for UNI getting an AL based on history.

Although the author is also probably aware that criteria like past success, number of teams from one conference, and quality of FBS wins and losses are officially not supposed to carry weight in the selection process, we all know that realistically they do.

And if you think about it, that's not entirely unreasonable. If history has shown that teams from weaker conferences that play weak schedules don't fare well in the playoffs, then isn't safe to assume that until they play up more and increase their amount of quality wins, they are less deserving than teams from conferences with a proven track record? In other words, past decisions using very similar circumstances have been vindicated.

[19Duke97]

You really don't think a potential 10-1 Holy Cross or a 10-1 SCSU has no chance to be a seed in a thermonuclear scenario? I'm not saying it's likely, but if all the current frontrunners for a seed lose, they have to be in the conversation...

Take Richmond/W&M out for a second. The thermonuclear scenario is the unlikely possibility that SEMO beats SIU, WCU beats App St, Delaware beats Villanova, and Montana State beats Montana. Who are the teams that become seeds in that case? Certainly the Richmond/W&M winner, but who else? Elon? Northern Iowa? SDSU? No way are 8-3 teams seeds before SCSU and HC.

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but it is still possible.

However every team in the top 10 would have to lose, save the UR/W&M winner, including UNH, Elon, McNeese, which have better resumes than either HC or SCSU. And yes I think McNeese and UNH deserve seeds before SCSU or HC. Elon before HC @ 9-2.

[Pard4Life]

What are ya, an investment commercial?;)

I was responding the reporter's own reasoning for UNI getting an AL based on history.

Although the author is also probably aware that criteria like past success, number of teams from one conference, and quality of FBS wins and losses are officially not supposed to carry weight in the selection process, we all know that realistically they do.

And if you think about it, that's not entirely unreasonable. If history has shown that teams from weaker conferences that play weak schedules don't fare well in the playoffs, then isn't safe to assume that until they play up more and increase their amount of quality wins, they are less deserving than teams from conferences with a proven track record? In other words, past decisions using very similar circumstances have been vindicated.

It's difficult to attian quality wins when the top conferences do not want to schedule you and recieving a low seed in the playoffs. Wish we had more football examples, but when you have teams such as Butler, Bucknell, Princeton etc getting 7, 8, 6 seeds in basketball, they win their games because of more evenly matched competition. Probably 75% of this year's playoff field, even power conference teams, would lose at top teams Nova/Richmond, for example. The fact that smaller conference teams always get such games only increases the perception they are "weak" and don't deserve a bid. But, it is what it is. You catch lightning in a bottle now and then.

[Pard4Life]

You really don't think a potential 10-1 Holy Cross or a 10-1 SCSU has no chance to be a seed in a thermonuclear scenario? I'm not saying it's likely, but if all the current frontrunners for a seed lose, they have to be in the conversation...

Take Richmond/W&M out for a second. The thermonuclear scenario is the unlikely possibility that SEMO beats SIU, WCU beats App St, Delaware beats Villanova, and Montana State beats Montana. Who are the teams that become seeds in that case? Certainly the Richmond/W&M winner, but who else? Elon? Northern Iowa? SDSU? No way are 8-3 teams seeds before SCSU and HC.

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but it is still possible.

What was the field like when 12-0 Colgate got a seed? Weren't they 4?

You are right HC had a sliiiiim chance of a seed. Peyton candidate Randolph helps perceptions.

Don't look but Lafayette's AD heads the eastern bloc of the committee.

[kalm]

It's difficult to attian quality wins when the top conferences do not want to schedule you and recieving a low seed in the playoffs. Wish we had more football examples, but when you have teams such as Butler, Bucknell, Princeton etc getting 7, 8, 6 seeds in basketball, they win their games because of more evenly matched competition. Probably 75% of this year's playoff field, even power conference teams, would lose at top teams Nova/Richmond, for example. The fact that smaller conference teams always get such games only increases the perception they are "weak" and don't deserve a bid. But, it is what it is. You catch lightning in a bottle now and then.

Good points Pard. And the same can be said for when CAA fans point out that no BSC team other than Montana has reached the Semi's since 1997. The challenge for us, just like you, is the BSC #2 is often playing on the road at a seed, and if when win they're on the road again for the quarters. And if you finish the regular season with a pair of road games - that's a lot of travel and pretty tall order.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Good points Pard. And the same can be said for when CAA fans point out that no BSC team other than Montana has reached the Semi's since 1997. The challenge for us, just like you, is the BSC #2 is often playing on the road at a seed, and if when win they're on the road again for the quarters. And if you finish the regular season with a pair of road games - that's a lot of travel and pretty tall order.

And of course they argue they're superior because they get so many more teams from the CAA into the semi's and title game.

Well DUH they'll get more teams that deep if your conference is 1) so large (12), 2) split so all teams don't have to play each other which inflates their overall records, 3) regionalization forces BSC teams to play each other in the 2nd round, eliminating half of our teams (since BSC teams usually win their 1st round games).

[yosef1969]

Found it interesting that he seems to favor ASU as the 4th seed if everybody wins out. That surprises me, pleasantly. I've bounced it around in my own head so much lately that while I still doubt it, I'm beginning to believe it's not as far fetched as I originally thought. Guess we'll see what happens Saturday and consequently Sunday.

[MacThor]

Well DUH they'll get more teams that deep if your conference is 1) so large (12), 2) split so all teams don't have to play each other which inflates their overall records, 3) regionalization forces BSC teams to play each other in the 2nd round, eliminating half of our teams (since BSC teams usually win their 1st round games).

1) The size of a conference has nothing to do with advancing in the playoffs.
2) How does a split conference "inflate" overall records, exactly?
3) BSC teams have met once in the past decade - last year. So what? Villanova went to JMU in the 2nd round last year too. UMass-UNH in '06. W&M-UD in '04. (And I hardly think 10-9 equates to "usually" winning 1st round games).

Regionalization sucks, but it affects everyone. Bidding for home games sucks, but it's the system we have.

The inferiority complex is so tiresome. Who cares about conference vs. conference? Unseeded JMU won the whole thing on the road in '04. Unseeded UD knocked off two seeds en route to the '07 final. Unseeded UR took out 3 seeds and 4 conference champs last year, including road wins in two of the toughest venues in FCS.

Stop whining about pairings, seeds and home games. Playoffs are awesome, and anyone can win it on the field. "To be the best, you've got to beat the best."

[Pard94]

He says if Lafayette beats Lehigh "they have an excellent chance of getting in". Really??? I though we had a snowball's chance in hell no matter what happens this weekend. I like his opinion better.

[Squealofthepig]

1) The size of a conference has nothing to do with advancing in the playoffs.
2) How does a split conference "inflate" overall records, exactly?
3) BSC teams have met once in the past decade - last year. So what? Villanova went to JMU in the 2nd round last year too. UMass-UNH in '06. W&M-UD in '04. (And I hardly think 10-9 equates to "usually" winning 1st round games).

Regionalization sucks, but it affects everyone. Bidding for home games sucks, but it's the system we have.

The inferiority complex is so tiresome. Who cares about conference vs. conference? Unseeded JMU won the whole thing on the road in '04. Unseeded UD knocked off two seeds en route to the '07 final. Unseeded UR took out 3 seeds and 4 conference champs last year, including road wins in two of the toughest venues in FCS.

Stop whining about pairings, seeds and home games. Playoffs are awesome, and anyone can win it on the field. "To be the best, you've got to beat the best."

Just to pile on here, as I agree almost 100%.

CAA may have more teams, but they also have more quality teams. When it's almost half the field, it does seem to be a bit too much (when there are undefeated or nearly undefeated teams from other conferences), but their records in the playoffs have shown that they generally deserve to get the number of teams in the playoffs.

Regionalization does, however, hit the BSC teams a bit harder, as the lack of depth makes it rare for BSC teams to be placed elsewhere, whereas CAA teams often get spread around a bit simply because they have enough teams in that they can't play each other in the first round. And talking about the second round isn't really that convincing anyway, as ultimately it's a question of who makes it to Chatty.

Don't get me wrong - I would LOVE to see a BSC vs. BSC team make it to the NCG, but we will need to have a bit stronger of a conference and get three or four teams in before there's any likelihood of that happening. Until then, it's just railing against reality.

And the good news this year is that it should be fifteen VERY competitive games - looking forward to it. :) Whoever wins will not have done so by feasting on cupcakes to get to chatty, for certain!

[MacThor]

Regionalization does, however, hit the BSC teams a bit harder

How, exactly? Two BSC teams have only met once (Weber St. vs Montana last year). I can find a lot more examples of BSC teams in opposite brackets than once.