Playoffs WriteUp - Final Week

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:
The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Teams ineligible: Bryant, UTC, C. Arkansas, Jacksonville State, NC Central, North Dakota, Presbyterian, South Dakota, and Winston Salem St. A team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible for an at large berth. – ALSO there are teams with still a mathematical chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule and belief that they will lose but will add back in coming weeks as the potential field shrinks.

Below, are prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field of 16, regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.

1. Montana (10-0, 7-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana State (11/21)

Outlook:AQ The grizzles have grabbed the Autobid, but danger is ahead with a tough final game at Montana State. If Montana fails to win, it could spell trouble based on other games as it relates to the top 4 seeds – if they do lose they will not get one of the top two, however a win secures a top 2 seed.

2. Southern Illinois (9-1, 8-0 MVC)
The Games: at SE MO St (11/21)

Outlook: AQ S. Illinois is in line for the top seed in the tournament but certainly a top 4 spot, a loss could put them out of the top 4 seeds.

3. Villanova (9-1, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: Delaware (11/21)

Outlook: IN It all comes down to the final week in the CAA – and Villanova needs a victory to perhaps win the CAA – but more importantly to grab a top 4 seed – if they lose no top seed. While Delaware will not show up in my report below I think they have an outside chance in multiple teams lose and they will be playing hard to knock off the wildcats.

4. Appalachian State (8-2, 7-0 Southern)
The Games: Western Carolina (11/21)

Outlook: AQ The Mountaineers played like true champions on Saturday and it was their defense that was most impressive – not something we have heard a lot this year. The Mountaineers seem to be peaking at the right time, but cannot afford a letdown as WCU comes to town. The Mountaineers will need an impressive victory and will be pulling hard for Delaware so they can steal a top 4 seed – the committee wants it as well $$$.

5. Richmond (9-1, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: W&M (11/21)

Outlook:IN The Spiders are headed back to the playoffs, but a top seed and Autobid is still a possibility- a showdown with W&M will determine the CAA AB.

6. William & Mary (9-1, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at Richmond (11/21)

Outlook: IN Don’t look now but W&M is knocking on the door of winning the CAA, they will need a victory at Richmond and they will be in the mix for one of the top 4 seeds.

7. New Hampshire (8-2, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine (11/21)

Outlook: IN As thought, NH failed to beat W&M and they could really use a win this weekend, but that might not be so easy as Maine looks to play spoiler. Either way I have them in the field.

8. South Carolina State (8-1. 5-0 MEAC)
The Games: at NC A&T (11/21)

Outlook: AQ Things dogs snagged the Autobid on Saturday. Know the focus remains on a win over the Aggies and hopeful that they are not paired with ASU – if not they should be playing at home on Thanksgiving.

9. Holy Cross (9-1, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Bucknell (11/21)

Outlook: AQ Holy Cross held off Lafayette to capture the Autobid. A date with Villanova looms large in two weeks.

10. Elon (8-21, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: at Samford (11/21)

Outlook: Elon failed to secure the Autobid as the Mountaineers took that away this past weekend. What appeared to be a lock for the playoffs now seems to be in a bit of trouble. A tough game at Samford is ahead but I still believe that regardless of outcome that the Phoenix rise and earn their first playoff berth or will they be WOFFED?

11. South Dakota State (7-3, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at W. Illinois (11/21)

Outlook: The Jackrabbits played a great game at Minnesota but could not get the victory. They will need to win this weekend to secure a spot if they do, a date with Montana looks likely.

12. SF Austin (8-2, 5-1 Southland)
The Games: at N’western State (11/21)

Outlook: SFA got the victory this weekend and will need to beat N’western State to get in the Autobid. A loss could spell trouble.

13. McNeese State (8-2, 5-1 Southland)
The Games: C. Arkansas (11/21)

Outlook: A huge win at ASU keeps the Cowboys in the mix. An Autobid is still within reach but any a loss this weekend could push the cowboys out of the playoffs. If they win I see a first round home game.

14. Northern Iowa (7-3, 4-2 MVC)
The Games: at Illinois State (11/21)

Outlook: One more test remains – win and you are in – lose and you are out.

15. Eastern Kentucky/Eastern Illinois (OVC)
The Games:

Outlook: AB E. Illinois controls it’s destiny if they lose it could open the door for EKU who had a surprising loss this weekend to WCU. Either way no at large berth remains for this conference

16. E. Washington (7-3, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at N. Arizona (11/21)

Outlook: EW is clearly back in the postseason hunt a win in their last next week could assure them a spot, but will the committee remember they just got off probation?

17. Montana State (7-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana (11/21)

Outlook: The game with Montana should be for a playoff bid. If they do it win it will certainly burst some bubbles.

18. Layfayette (8-2, 4-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh (11/21)

Outlook: A two point loss to Holy Cross most likely ends the post season dreams of this team – but they need some help in the form of losses by Montana State, EWU and SFA to be in the mix.

19. Liberty (8-2, 5-0 Big South)
The Games: at Stony Brook (11/21)

Outlook: The flame is burning out for Liberty – their only chance is losses by E. Washington, UNI, SFA, Layfayette, and Montana State will really help to keep them in the mix.

20. Colgate (9-2, 4-2 Patriot)
The Games: Regular Season Complete

Outlook: Colgate saws its playoff hopes take a real hit this past weekend, they will need to win to stay in the mix, however they appear to be the 3rd team from the Patriot and there is no hope of 3 teams from this conference getting in.

21. Weber State (6-4, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Cal Poly (11/21)

Outlook: They still have a small outside chance, but again they must win this weekend and hope that both EWU and Montana State lose. Only the fact that two of their losses are to FBS schools keeps them in the playoff chase. But I am beginning to like the 4 loss Delaware team if they can win over Nova…

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Holy Cross, A10: Villanova, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: SFA, Southern: ASU, Gateway: S. Illinois., MEAC: SCSt, OVC: E. Illinois

At-large: Richmond, N. Iowa, N. Hamp, W&M, SDakSt, Elon, McNeese, E.Wash

Seeds: Richmond, Montana, S. Illinois, ASU

Last In: N Hamp and E. Wash
Last Out: Liberty, Lafayette and Weber State

Bracket I:
Elon at No. 1 Richmond
Holy Cross @ Villanova

W&M at No. 4 ASU
SFA @ SCSt

Bracket II:
E. Illinois at No. 3 S. Illinois
N Hampshire at N. Iowa

S Dak St. at No. 2 Montana
E. Washington @ McNeese St

NOTES:
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, SDak St/Montana and W&M/ASU.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/Richmond
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – S Dakota State over Montana.
*NC game based on my projections, S. Illinois vs. Villanova – S. Illinois wins it all…

[jcmanson]

The Flame is not burning out for LU. We are in ahead of Laffy.

[tribe_pride]

You have Delaware beating Villanova I assume? Not that I am saying it's not going to happen because Delaware is playing really well right now but interesting that you have them falling out of a seed and having Richmond as a 1 seed especially since you have Nova going to the finals.

Does that mean if Villanova and Richmond win this weekend, they grab the 1 & 2 seeds (Nova beat Richmond at Richmond only 2 weeks ago)

[Go Apps]

You have Delaware beating Villanova I assume? Not that I am saying it's not going to happen because Delaware is playing really well right now but interesting that you have them falling out of a seed and having Richmond as a 1 seed especially since you have Nova going to the finals.

Does that mean if Villanova and Richmond win this weekend, they grab the 1 & 2 seeds (Nova beat Richmond at Richmond only 2 weeks ago)

Making an assumption that Nova loses and Richmond wins - with that said my predictions will work out. If Richmond wins it will be hard to deny both Nova and Richmond top seeds but I just see the committee picking the top 4 conferences with Big Sky, SoCon, CAA, and MVC as top seeds

[tribe_pride]

Got it, Just wanted to confirm. Both the W&M/Richmond and Delaware/Nova games should be close and will probably come down to the final few minutes.

[Bogus Megapardus]

We are in ahead of Laffy.

To All Libbie-Wibs - Enough already; everyone knows you won your game against Lafayette. It will never happen again in a hundred lifetimes, but it did this year. Enjoy. I hope it's good enough to get you into the playoffs.

[ToTheLeft]

To All Libbie-Wibs - Enough already; everyone knows you won your game against Lafayette. It will never happen again in a hundred lifetimes, but it did this year. Enjoy. I hope it's good enough to get you into the playoffs.

I hope you mean "will never happen again because we'll never play again" rather than implying that LC has a better program right now than LU.

The idea that Lafayette is ahead of LU is a joke. LC has no wins, and a loss to a team they're going up against for the last spot. Definite oversight when putting together the list.

[LUHawker]

7. New Hampshire (8-2, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine (11/21)

Outlook: IN As thought, NH failed to beat W&M and they could really use a win this weekend, but that might not be so easy as Maine looks to play spoiler. Either way I have them in the field.


9. Holy Cross (9-1, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Bucknell (11/21)

Outlook: AQ Holy Cross held off Lafayette to capture the Autobid. A date with Villanova looms large in two weeks.


Bracket I:
Elon at No. 1 Richmond
Holy Cross @ Villanova


Bracket II:
E. Illinois at No. 3 S. Illinois
N Hampshire at N. Iowa





I wouldn't be too quick to ship Holy Cross off to Villanova. New Hampshire would be a closer destination than VU. Either way Holy Cross draws a top CAA team.

[Bogus Megapardus]

I hope you mean "will never happen again because we'll never play again" rather than implying that LC has a better program right now than LU.

The idea that Lafayette is ahead of LU is a joke. LC has no wins, and a loss to a team they're going up against for the last spot. Definite oversight when putting together the list.

I have no idea if Lafayette will play Liberty again. It was a one-off, home-and-home this time where each team won on the opposition's field. But yes, if such a game ever is scheduled again, I am confident that Lib.U. will not win. A "hundred lifetimes" perhaps contains a hint of deliberate ironic hyperbole, so let's just say it won't happen in mine.

As far as the "better program" goes, the two are diametrical opposites and are founded on completely different philosophies (other than the desire to win games). So it would be of precious little argumentative benefit for me to compare "programs." They're like apples and oranges. Each has its competitive advantages, and each has its patent, notable drawbacks.

Good luck with the remainder of your season. If Lib.U. does not make the playoffs this year, the conference auto-bid next year will make the discussion moot.

[knucklehead]

But yes, if such a game ever is scheduled again, I am confident that Lib.U. will not win. A "hundred lifetimes" perhaps contains a hint of deliberate ironic hyperbole, so let's just say it won't happen in mine.
.

I am perplexed as to why you say LU would never beat your version of LU again in your lifetime. There is confidence, and then there is blind rhetoric.

There is no doubt that both are good programs, and that future meetings will be competetive.

[Bogus Megapardus]

I am perplexed as to why you say LU would never beat your version of LU again in your lifetime. There is confidence, and then there is blind rhetoric.

There is no doubt that both are good programs, and that future meetings will be competetive.

Forgive me; this is rivalry week up in the Lafayette Valley. It's the time of year that we sharpen our witty barbs and our over-the-top assertions of supremacy. It's been going on, unabated, for 120 continuous years in much the same fashion, so there's little anyone can do to stop it. I suppose you just have to be there to understand . . . . .

[knucklehead]

Forgive me; this is rivalry week up in the Lafayette Valley. It's the time of year that we sharpen our witty barbs and our over-the-top assertions of supremacy. It's been going on, unabated, for 120 continuous years in much the same fashion, so there's little anyone can do to stop it. I suppose you just have to be there to understand . . . . .

HAHA, nice. Well then in that spirit: your team stinks and we will dominate you forthwith for years to come. Maybe we can schedule another game in Mike Brown's senior season so you can be a part of his Walter Payton Award winning campaign.

In all seriousness, we are cheering for your LU this weekend. We did that this weekend too but it didn't help.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I wouldn't be too quick to ship Holy Cross off to Villanova. New Hampshire would be a closer destination than VU. Either way Holy Cross draws a top CAA team.

Except that, I believe when the pairings are made they start with the #1 seed and locate the closest team, then do the same with #2 and so on. Doing that Holy Cross would go to Villanova. Then of course if there isn't anyone within the "bus distance" you get pairings like UNH at #1 UNI in 2007! xoopsx

What will really be interesting is the bids if the committee decided to pair UNH-Holy Cross to have a bus game (about 1.5 hours apart). I'm guessing Holy Cross dips into their bank and bids more than attendance would support. And the NCAA is more than happy to have the game at Fitton Field rather than at Cowell Stadium.

I'd rather not hear the Big Sky ranting about the CAA getting "easy" draws in the playoffs with Patriot teams. But after traveling to Cedar Falls (twice) and Carbondale in the past two years, my bank account would welcome a game in my back yard!! :p :D :D

[WMTribe90]

Making an assumption that Nova loses and Richmond wins - with that said my predictions will work out. If Richmond wins it will be hard to deny both Nova and Richmond top seeds but I just see the committee picking the top 4 conferences with Big Sky, SoCon, CAA, and MVC as top seeds


Of course you do. :p

[Pitz]

16. E. Washington (7-3, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at N. Arizona (11/21)

Outlook: EW is clearly back in the postseason hunt a win in their last next week could assure them a spot, but will the committee remember they just got off probation?

21. Weber State (6-4, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Cal Poly (11/21)

Outlook: They still have a small outside chance, but again they must win this weekend and hope that both EWU and Montana State lose. Only the fact that two of their losses are to FBS schools keeps them in the playoff chase. But I am beginning to like the 4 loss Delaware team if they can win over Nova…

Does anyone else think that Weber State's resume looks better than E Washington with the same amount of D-I wins and a head-to-head win at EWU?

[4th and What?]

Does anyone else think that Weber State's resume looks better than E Washington with the same amount of D-I wins and a head-to-head win at EWU?

I've been thinking it, but I am in enough arguments on AGS recently I didn't want to walk into another. Does the Montana St loss really outweigh a head to head win against EWU? In most people's minds I guess it does, but I still have Weber St ranked above EWU.

Would a Montana St win, help or hurt either team should other win-and-in's lose?

Weber St played two FBS teams tight, and lost to two playoff contention teams, while beating EWU directly. A win at home against Cal Poly though is not as strong as a win @ SUU. So that falls on the side of EWU. How does two close average FBS losses match up against a DII win and a top FBS blowout?

There's room for discussion either way I guess, but I always tend to fall back on the head to head game.

[Green26]

Thanks, Go Apps. Your summary and analysis was very good and helpful.

[McNeese75]

Nice summary but I disagree with your opinion that a McNeese loss this week would drop them from contention. I think the Cowboys will win but even with a loss I seen them getting an AL spot and travelling.

[4th and What?]

Nice summary but I disagree with your opinion that a McNeese loss this week would drop them from contention. I think the Cowboys will win but even with a loss I seen them getting an AL spot and travelling.

A McNeese loss could put them outside if Montana St wins, and no other win-and-in team loses. However, McNeese's win over App St and only losses right now being to SF Austin and Tulane give them a little extra compared to others.

[Go Apps]

Nice summary but I disagree with your opinion that a McNeese loss this week would drop them from contention. I think the Cowboys will win but even with a loss I seen them getting an AL spot and travelling.

Actually I think that it puts them in a discussion - but I believe that their win over ASU secures their bid - SFA could be in trouble if they lose as they do not have that victory over a powerhouse like McNeese

[RabidRabbit]

Nice summary but I disagree with your opinion that a McNeese loss this week would drop them from contention. I think the Cowboys will win but even with a loss I seen them getting an AL spot and travelling.

A loss leaves McNeese with a 7-3 D-I, with a great win over App St. I would agree that McNeese's win OOC is probably one of the best wins from the at-large pool. Losses in the SLC would be SFA (likely auto-bid, if win) and UCA, who was in the top 25 most of the season.

[Saluki09]

*NC game based on my projections, S. Illinois vs. Villanova – S. Illinois wins it all…

I like the way you think xthumbsupx

Granted I don't know how the attendance would be for that game...

[Pard94]

HAHA, nice. Well then in that spirit: your team stinks and we will dominate you forthwith for years to come. Maybe we can schedule another game in Mike Brown's senior season so you can be a part of his Walter Payton Award winning campaign.

In all seriousness, we are cheering for your LU this weekend. We did that this weekend too but it didn't help.

Thanks for the cheers...but NEVER call Lafayette College..."LU" (as in Lehigh University). We'd rather you insult our mothers or key our cars or soemthing.

[Bogus Megapardus]

Thanks for the cheers...but NEVER call Lafayette College..."LU" (as in Lehigh University). We'd rather you insult our mothers or key our cars or soemthing.

Our brethren at Holy Cross and Dartmouth often suffer the same indignity, Pard. I let it go this time, of course, considering the source . . . .

[ToTheLeft]

Yeah, I wanted to tell him about that but I figured I would let you guys.

It would be like calling Colorado State "Colorado"

[Pard4Life]

Actually I think that it puts them in a discussion - but I believe that their win over ASU secures their bid - SFA could be in trouble if they lose as they do not have that victory over a powerhouse like McNeese

There is little doubt that SFA and McNeese both make it. SFA plays a winless team.

Couldn't the Southland have a four-way tie? Either way it's a two bid league by virtue of SFA over McNeese and McNeese over Appy.

[smcwildcat]

hahaha last in NH? no wayyy

[Go Apps]

hahaha last in NH? no wayyy

If you lose then it will put you towards the bottom - many have stated that of the CAA contenders - N Hampshire has had the easiest schedule...but I still think they are in regardless

[PhoenixMan]

Elon loses this week they are out, and should be. Win and in!!

[Go Apps]

Elon loses this week they are out, and should be. Win and in!!

Elon should win this week

[UNHWILDCATS05]

Except that, I believe when the pairings are made they start with the #1 seed and locate the closest team, then do the same with #2 and so on. Doing that Holy Cross would go to Villanova. Then of course if there isn't anyone within the "bus distance" you get pairings like UNH at #1 UNI in 2007! xoopsx

What will really be interesting is the bids if the committee decided to pair UNH-Holy Cross to have a bus game (about 1.5 hours apart). I'm guessing Holy Cross dips into their bank and bids more than attendance would support. And the NCAA is more than happy to have the game at Fitton Field rather than at Cowell Stadium.

I'd rather not hear the Big Sky ranting about the CAA getting "easy" draws in the playoffs with Patriot teams. But after traveling to Cedar Falls (twice) and Carbondale in the past two years, my bank account would welcome a game in my back yard!! :p :D :D


Go DE!!!

[WrenFGun]

I wouldn't be too quick to ship Holy Cross off to Villanova. New Hampshire would be a closer destination than VU. Either way Holy Cross draws a top CAA team.

IMO, the only way Holy Cross won't draw 'Nova is for 'Nova to fall out of seed contention with a loss to Delaware.

I guess that's what I'll root for! Also, how is New Hampshire one of the last two in? They'd be in ahead of Northern Iowa, Elon and South Dakota State, as well.

[UNHFootballAlum]

I wouldn't be too quick to ship Holy Cross off to Villanova. New Hampshire would be a closer destination than VU. Either way Holy Cross draws a top CAA team.

I agree with this as HC is only 1.5 hour drive from UNH. UNH will not be the last team in, even if they lose to Maine as they have a top 5 win over Villanova and UNI won't have a quality win over a top team.

[phoenixphanatic21]

Elon loses this week they are out, and should be. Win and in!!

God doesn't this sound familiar...Good news is I think this is the year we do finally get the win and get in, even with all the injuries we have coming into the game.

[TypicalTribe]

Biggest questions for the weekend:

1. Assuming Villanova wins, does the Richmond/W&M winner get the last seed over ASU? They have almost identical resumes and the winner would be 10-1, with their only loss being to a seeded team and having an FBS win on their resume. Seems to me they should, but would the committee give ASU the seed with an eye on the 2nd round game being in Boone rather than Richmond or the Burg. I expect this to be a quarterfinal pairing, so it's a big decision.

2. How does the committee handle SCSU and HC? Both look to finish with 10 wins while winning two of the weakest AQ leagues in the playoffs? Could either/both get home games, with maybe Elon and UNH coming to town?

3. Will EWU get a somewhat slanted look from the committee because of the recent infractions?

4. Is there a scenario out there that could result in a bid for Liberty?

Can't wait for the weekend. Should be fun.

[ASU_MBA]

I think App will host the loser of the Richmond, W&M game the only other option would be a SC State rematch......
still a lot of questions....

[Pitz]

Is there a scenario out there that could result in a bid for Liberty?

In my opinion, they need the three Big Sky bubblers (Weber St, EWU, MSU) to fall.

And obviously a win at Stony Brook.