My FCS Write Up

[joecooll6]

A couple of my buddies were asking about the playoff situation in the FCS so I decided to write down what I knew and send it to them on Facebook. As I got going it wound up being over five pages long. I think its a pretty good write up so I thought I would share it with all of you. I did one last week too, so if there are references to what I said last week that would be why.

Part I- The seeds.

Due to the events of last week, if there are no suprises then what once was very murky and difficult to figure out actually has becomes quite cut and dry. Who gets the #1 and #2 seeds is still a bit sticky, but if all the favorites win next week then the four seeds are pretty simple.

#1) Southern Illinois (9-1), Next Week: @ Southeast Missouri State (2-8).
-Not much new here. SIU is still my pick for #1, and is the number one rated team in two of the three polls. They got an easy 20 point win over Mo State last week to finish the MVFC schedule undefeated, winning their conference games by an average of 16.5 points. Undefeated in the FCS with a game they should win with ease next week, the Salukis are rolling right now and are a legitimate threat to win the national title. Will they be seeded #1 or #2? We will find out in a week.

#2) Villanova (9-1), Next Week: Delaware (6-4).
-Villanova got an easy 49-7 win last week against 2-8 Townson. The Wildcats will claim the CAA title and auto bid with a win over Delaware at home next week. Even if the Wildcats lose, they are clearly in the playoffs. They arent worried about that, what they are worried about is whether they will be a top 2 seed if they beat the Blue Hens. Nova is #3 in all three polls, but they are #1 in GPI (the BCS of the FCS) and the committee has been known to use that as a major tool when picking teams and seeding them. We will have to see next week. Regardless, Nova is gonna be seeded if they win.

#3) Montana (10-0), Next Week: @ Montana State (7-3)
-The Griz struggled for a quarter and a half at home against Northern Colorado (the second worst team in the Big Sky) before eventually putting them away 38-10. The Griz are rated #1 in the coaches poll, #2 in the other polls, but are #4 in the GPI behind Nova, SIU and Richmond. They have a relatively tough game on the road against rival Montana State next week, and the way they’ve been playing they could definitely lose that game. If they win it, though, I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving an undefeated Montana out of the top two seeds. It could happen however as the Griz’s resume is a little lacking.

#4) Richmond (9-1), Next Week: William and Mary (9-1)
-Due to UNH losing and Elon losing, the seeding situation is pretty cut and dry. The top three will go to SIU, Nova, and Montana if they all win, while the fourth will go to the winner of the Richmond-Bill and Mary game next week. Richmond is at home, defending champs, and have gotten pretty used to winning by this point. Also, I just think the Spiders are a touch better, so I’m giving it to UR right now.

#5) William and Mary (9-1), Next Week: @ Richmond (9-1)
- A late field goal pushed the Tribe to a 20-17 win over New Hampshire last weekend, ending the Wildcats seeding hopes and pushing William and Mary into a chance to get a seed. Win this game, and William and Mary are a shoe in for a seed (they would have wins over Virginia, Delaware, New Hampshire and Richmond, with their loss being to Nova). The Tribe are tied with Montana for 4th in the GPI, so it pretty much would be an automatic. Also, if Nova loses to Delaware, the winner of the UR/W&M game is the CAA champs.

#6) Appalachian State (8-2), Next Week: Western Carolina (2-8)
- If one of the top three falls, conventional wisdom dictates that Appy becomes the most likely to be the 4th seed. The Mountaineers are Southern Conference champions, have won eight in a row, and beat Elon with ease last week. Their GPI is 10th, however they were ahead of UNH, SDSU, and Elon who all lost, so they should be at least 7th, behind the five already mentioned and UNI (who currently sits 8th somehow) when the new poll comes out tomarrow. Next week’s game is very winnable for ASU, combine that with their SoCon title and their rep and they could find themselves seeded after an 0-2 start.

#7) New Hampshire (8-2), Next Week: Maine (5-5)
-The Wildcats loss to William and Mary last week puts them squarely on the outside looking in for a seed. But if a lot of crap goes down and a couple of the top teams lose, UNH could be back in the conversation. They have a FBS win (over Ball State, one of the worst teams in the FBS) as well as over Villanova, but besides that have managed to not beat any teams with a winning record despite playing in the CAA (and they have a loss to 5-5 Umass). If the crap hits the fan, UHN would be in the running, but might lose out to the UR/W&M loser, or to the next team.

#8) South Carolina State (9-1), Next Week: North Carolina A&T (4-5)
-The Bulldogs have dominated the MEAC. While the MEAC is a weak conference, SCSU has shown they are a step above the rest in that league having dismantled every team in it with relative ease. They won the autobid already, and with a win, and some craziness happening up top (like Nova and Montana both losing), the Bulldogs could find themselves in the conversation for a seed. Their #11 GPI, which could rise as high as 8 this week, certainly helps them, as well as their great attendence, which is much higher than most FCS teams. We shall see.

[joecooll6]

Part II- The Other Locks, the “win and you’re ins”, and the odds and ends.

-Locks- These teams are in, a cement lock (or in the case of EIU and EKU, one of the two is a cement lock)

#15) Eastern Illinois (8-2) or Eastern Kentucky (5-5), Next Week: Tennessee State (3-7), @ Jacksonville State (7-3)
-Jake Christiansen’s EIU Panthers are in the driver’s seat in the OVC, but since one of their two losses is to EKU, they still could find themselves without the automatic berth from the OVC if things go terribly wrong next week. If Eastern Illinois takes care of 3-7 Tennessee State at home next Thursday (in a game that can be seen on ESPNU), the Panthers are in. If EIU slips up, then Eastern Kentucky can claim the auto bid by going on the road and beating Jacksonville State on Saturday. Hopefully for bubble teams, EIU can take care of this on Thursday night so we don’t have to worry about another team on the bubble on Saturday. Honestly, I think EIU is one of the better teams to come out of the OVC in awhile. Should they get in, they will likely be headed to Carbondale to face SIU in the first round of the playoffs and could give them a run for their money. Still,
the OVC hasn’t won a playoff game in a long, long, long time.

#16) Holy Cross (9-1), Next Week: @ Bucknell (3-7)
-Holy Cross is in the playoffs, for the first time since 1983 and the second time ever, as the Patriot League champs courtesy of their 28-26 win over Lafeyette last week. Now they have to focus on whether or not they will be the first Patriot League team to win a playoff game in a half decade. The Crusaders aren’t a bad team, but their odds of winning their first game are low because they will likely be sent on the road to play a CAA team, probably Villanova. Even without a playoff win, the Crusaders still have plenty to celebrate this season.

-The Win-and-You’re Ins- These teams were locks last week, and still control their own fate, but if they slip up on the last week of the season they could find themselves amongst the bubblers. They wouldn’t necessarily be out with a loss, but they are definitely in with a win, no debate.

#9) McNeese State (8-2), Next Week: Central Arkansas (5-5)
-The Cowboys came out of the Southland scuffle in decent shape. They didn’t get the scenario they needed to be in line for the auto bid, but they did win their game and that set them up for a decent shot at a playoff berth. MSU is carrying a huge out of conference win, @ Appy State, and with a win on the last week of the season a 9-2 record puts them solidly in with an at large berth (or automatic if SFA loses). Central Arkansas is not a pushover though, they lost to the three best teams in the Southland other than McNeese by a total of 10 points, lost to FBS Hawaii by 5 and beat FBS Western Kentucky handily (although WKU is probably the worst team in FBS). If MSU loses, they fall back to the bubble and their locked position opens up. They could still get in with a loss, especially with their win over Appy, but their GPI is currently 17 and would fall with a loss. Also, they have a D2 win amonst their wins so they would only have 7 DI wins. They could still get in, but they wouldn’t feel safe with a loss.

#10.) Stephen F. Austin (8-2), Next Week: @ Northwestern State (0-10)
-You could almost count SFA as a lock. The Lumberjacks came out of the Southland fray in excellent shape, and now hold the inside track for the Southland auto bid. All the Lumberjacks have to do is beat winless Northwestern State and they are in, automatically. Even if they lose, if McNeese loses too they are in automatically. If they find a way to lose to Northwestern State on the last day of the season and McNeese wins the auto, well they would have a tough time explaining that season ending loss. Couple that with a D2 win putting them at 7 DI wins and a #19 GPI that would likely fall drastically as a result of that loss, and they would likely be going home. But its doubtful they are going to lose.

#11.) Elon (8-2), Next Week: @ Samford (5-5)
-It pains me to say this, but Elon may just find a way to avoid the playoffs yet again. Appy beat them with relative ease and beat them up in the process. Now the Phoenix will carry some injuries into their game with Samford next weekend. I honestly don’t think Elon is going to lose, but their fans are so pessimistic that I have a hard time ignoring it. It would pretty much follow their curse to find a way to blow it. Honestly, I think its my fault because I purnounced them “in” last week. Samford is a decent team and will be playing at home, so they could pull it off, especially if Elon is banged up. If Elon loses, I personally think they still have a decent chance to get in. Their GPI is currently #6, although it will fall with a loss to Appy this week, and it would fall again with another loss. Plus, they already have 8 DI wins because they didn’t play a D2 team. But they would fall back into the conversation with a loss.

#12.) South Dakota State (7-3), Next Week: @ Western Illinois (1-9)
-These guys should technically be on the bubble and not in the “win and you’re in” category. The teams on the bubble HAVE TO WIN, while “win and youre in” teams would just lose their sense of security if they lose. SDSU would be out with a loss, so they HAVE TO WIN. However, they are playing Western Illinois who is completely hapless. I know, cause I watched UNI play them yesterday, and not play very well, and beat them 34-0. I also watched SDSU play Minnesota toe to toe and only a late turnover and some missed opportunities in the red zone cost the Jacks a 16-13 loss to the Gophers. I just don’t see any way SDSU loses this game. Win, and they’re in. They’ll win and they will be in.

*Odds and ends.

-UC-Davis leads the Great West, Penn leads the Ivy League, in the SWAC Prarie View A&M leads their division and Alabama A&M and Jackson State lead theirs, Old Dominion (an independent that will be joining the CAA) is 8-2 in its first year of existance as a football program (with 2 D2 wins, 2 wins over Pioneer League teams, 2 wins over fellow independents who are terrible, a win over the worst team in the Patriot League and a win over the worst team in the Big South). In the NEC, Wagner lost the inside track for the title and now Central Connecticut controls its own destiny again.

-And in the Pioneer League, Butler lost to Jacksonville and Dayton beat Drake. Now Dayton, Butler and Drake are all tied with one loss in conference. Drake has the toughest road to the Gridiron Classic, however. If Butler beats Drake this week @Butler, they are going to the GIC. If Drake beats Butler and Dayton wins its game against Marist, Dayton goes to the GIC. If Drake wins and Dayton loses (its doubtful Dayton will lose), then Drake goes to the GIC. There is some hope for the Bulldogs as Marist is 7-3 and has won 6 straight games. So its possible they could beat Dayton, but it would be a pretty big upset (Drake beat Marist 34-6).

[joecooll6]

Part III- The Bubbles

-Bubbles- Last and least the bubble teams. I have rated them by the likelihood of them getting in if they win, not by where I think its stands now, just FYI.

BUBBLES BURST- Three this week. First it was Florida A&M getting shut down by Hampton (ha! Hampton) 25-0, ending the Rattlers playoff dreams. Then it was Delaware, who, despite leading at halftime, couldn’t pull off the miracle and lost to Navy. Finally, the Southland fray had SFA and McNeese come out victorious, leaving Texas State and Southeastern Louisiana ineliable, making it impossible for the Southland to sport a 3rd playoff team. There are 5 bubble teams left (and another 2 possibly lurking depending on what goes down).

#13) Montana State (7-3), Next Week: Montana (10-0)
-Montana State’s resume is very very interesting. If they pull off the win this weekend, they would have beaten Montana, the only team in the country that could say that, and Weber State who is likely going to be 7-4, on the road. They also got beat by fellow bubble team Eastern Washington, lost to 5-5 Northern Arizona at home and got blown out by 41 in their FBS game vs. Michigan State, and needed overtime to beat transitional DI South Dakota (who UNI beat 66-7) and beat D2 Dixie State by 3. If it comes down to EWU vs. MSU, it will be very, very interesting to see if the committee values the two quality wins more, or if it values the head to head loss to EWU more. Montana State’s GPI is currently 23. And MSU would only have 7 DI wins not 8. Also, if Montana wins as expected, this would all be a moot point.

#14) Northern Iowa (7-3), Next Week: @ Illinois State (5-5)
-The Panthers claimed a businesslike 34-0 win over hapless Western Illinois last week. The game was not very pretty, and the Panthers, and Pat Grace especially, didn’t look as good in real life as they did on paper. They seem to have lost that magic that they had at the beginning of the year, and they better find it or they will lose next week in Normal. There is a 95% chance Papa T and I will be there watching the Cats try to make their case for the playoffs. UNI’s resume includes three losses, a 1 point loss to FBS Iowa, 7 point loss at home to 9-1 SIU, and a 10 point loss @ 7-3 SDSU. Unfortunately for UNI, their best win is over 6-5 Missouri State. But they don’t have any losses that are even somewhat bad, and their GPI is currently 8, and is likely going to go to 6 next week, which is a huge feather in their cap, and the Panthers would also have 8 DI wins with a win, which is also helpful to them. If the Panthers can win next week, they will definitely be in the conversation, and if MSU loses to Montana they will feel good about their chances.

#17) Eastern Washington (7-3), Next Week: @ Northern Arizona (5-5)
-The Eagles got off to an early lead, and weathered a torrid comeback last week against 4-6 Southern Utah to pull out a 41-28 win that was more of a blowout than it looks like. The Eagles are carrying a 42 point loss to their FBS foe Cal, a loss to 10-0 Montana (by 7 in Missoula) and an 18 point loss at home to Weber State who will likely be 7-4. EWU’s best win is over Montana State, and they have a D2 win. Their GPI is at 13 right now. The game in Arizona wont be easy as NAU is a decent team and it will be on the road. If EWU can pull it out though, and MSU wins too, and UNI, it will be a decent debate as to who should be in the playoffs.

#18) Liberty (8-2), Next Week: @ Stony Brook (5-5)
-Liberty trailed by one at the half last week, but won the second half 24-0 to beat Gardner-Webb, 51-28. If this were next year, their game with Stony Brook this week would be for the Big South’s playoff spot. Instead its just for the Big South title. The Flames playoff hopes most likely hinge on a win this week and some teams (like Elon, UNI, EWU, and MSU) losing. They have a D2 win, so they really would only be 8-2. Also, their biggest win is over Lafayette, the 8-2 2nd place team in the Patriot League. Their biggest win over a fully funded scholarship team is over any of the three 5-5 teams they beat in the Big South. They have losses to FBS West Virginia, and James Madison, who is now 5-5 in the CAA and not looking like AS BAD of a loss. Their GPI is currently 21. If Liberty wins next week they likely need some teams above them to lose, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the committee let them in, but Id be a little shocked.

#19.) Lafayette (8-2), Next Week: @ Lehigh (3-7)
-After losing to Holy Cross last week, the Patriot League’s runner up’s playoff hopes are for an at large bid. The likelihood of that happening is minimal though (even though they would have 9 DI wins) because they lost to Liberty at home, 19-13. Lafayette’s OOC slate does include wins over the top two Ivy League teams, for what its worth (which isn’t much). That makes them somewhat intrigueing. Still, their loss to Liberty would mean that LU would probably have to get in before them, which would mean that MSU, EWU and UNI would all have to lose for Lafayette to have a decent shot. The only real thing they got going for them is 9 DI wins. So who knows. Their GPI is currently 24 but should fall after their loss last week. Also, keep in mind they are playing Lehigh, their archrivals. Even though Lehigh’s record isnt very good this is a hardcore rivalry so a loss by Laffy is definitely possible this week.

-Lurkers

*Eastern Illinois (8-2)- I consider Eastern Illinois a bubble team if they lose to Tennessee State and EKU beats Jax State. If EIU wins, or EKU loses (both of which or likely), EIU’s bubble disentegrates and they are in with the OVC auto bid. If EIU is 8-3 and without autobid, their resume isnt too great. They have a blowout loss to FBS Penn State, a loss to EKU (who would be 6-5 in this scenario) and would have a bad loss to 4-7 Tennessee State. Their best wins would be over 7-4 Jax State and Illinois State who would be either 6-5 or 5-6. It could happen, but I think if the top 4 bubble teams hold serve an 8-3 EIU wouldn’t get in ahead of them, and they should just win this week so they don’t have to worry about it anyway.

#20) Weber State (6-4), This week: Cal Poly (4-6)
-If a bunch of bubble teams lose (and all 5 of them are playing loseable games), and the whole system falls down to 7-4 teams, look no further than Weber State. The Wildcats didn’t play a D2 game, so the still would have the necessary 7 wins with a win, and their losses are by 7 to FBS Wyoming, by 1 to FBS Colorado State, 7-3 Montana State and 10-0 Montana. They have wins over 7-3 Eastern Washington and 5-5 Northern Arizona, and their GPI is right in there with the bubble teams at 16. I think EWU, MSU and UNI would definitely be in over them, but if two of those teams lose, Weber is back in the conversation and being compared to Liberty and Lafayette. Also, two other teams to consider if ALL hell breaks loose and a lot of bubble teams lose are Florida A&M (who would be 8-3 with 8 DI wins, but in the terrible terrible MEAC and has a very bad loss to Hampton, GPI=33 before this week’s loss) and Colgate (who would be 9-2 out of the Patriot League with 9 DI wins, but lost to both Holy Cross and Lafayette so they are the 3rd team out of the Patriot League and HIGHLY unlikely GPI=41).

[Schfourteenteen]

Very nice. I could see Weber State gettting in over Liberty near the end, especially if Eastern Washington wins Saturday. Weber State then would have a win over a playoff team, which Liberty does not.

[santosballnewhampshire]

Nice job dude

[Poker Alan]

Nice write-up, hope you FB buddies appreciate it...

[seattlespider]

Not much to quibble with here. Nice work.

[Pitbull]

xthumbsupxxthumbsupx

[ASU_Fanatic]

nice! but i hope we are higher than 6th seed

[kirkblitz]

lib is in, end thread

[UNHFootballAlum]

nice! but i hope we are higher than 6th seed

Who are you going to jump over? SIU, Villanova, Montana, UR, WM. They all won and have better resumes than App St

[ToTheLeft]

nice! but i hope we are higher than 6th seed

Love you guys, huge win over the FireChickens...

but...

There will be 4 teams with better resumes out there in terms of seeds. App might get a seed, but it won't be hard earned. I think Montana and/or 3 CAA teams be the seeds along with SIU, and I can't see App being ahead of SCSU with it's unblemished FCS record and almost equally impressive home stadium and potential crowd.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Very nice analysis Joe. I think most everything you mentioned is right on.

As far as the last at large spot and the Big Sky... if EWU and MSU wins this weekend, the Cats are in most likely. If MSU loses and EWU and WSU win, EWU is in, most-likely.

[joecooll6]

Very nice analysis Joe. I think most everything you mentioned is right on.

As far as the last at large spot and the Big Sky... if EWU and MSU wins this weekend, the Cats are in most likely. If MSU loses and EWU and WSU win, EWU is in, most-likely.

I agree with that 100%.

[rcny46]

Very nice analysis Joe. I think most everything you mentioned is right on.

As far as the last at large spot and the Big Sky... if EWU and MSU wins this weekend, the Cats are in most likely. If MSU loses and EWU and WSU win, EWU is in, most-likely.

I have a feeling that if EWU,and MSU win this weekend,they will both make it in.

[joecooll6]

I have a feeling that if EWU,and MSU win this weekend,they will both make it in.

Do you think they both make it in over UNI? Look at the resumes. I think ours is better between EWU and UNI if both finish 8-3.

[Skjellyfetti]

Who are you going to jump over? SIU, Villanova, Montana, UR, WM. They all won and have better resumes than App St

And Villanova had a better resume than UNI last year. xeyebrowx

[WMTribe90]

Joe, nice work. Minor point. WM will likely be ranked above Montana in the new GPI that comes out tomorrow by virtue of this week's results. Montana beat unranked Northern Colorado and WM beat #8 UNH. That will end the tie. Next week WM plays a much higher ranked UR than Montana's opponent MSU. If WM beats UR then they will finish above Montana in the GPI.

Also, you rank VU above Montana for seeding and I agree. But, using that logic WM should also be seeded above Montana in the 3 spot. VU and WM will have virtually identical resumes.

Three versus four seed probably doesn't matter much, but I'm curious why a 10-1 VU is above Montana, but not a 10-1 WM (or UR if they win next week)?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I have a feeling that if EWU,and MSU win this weekend,they will both make it in.

I wish that were the case, but that's very unlikely, unless UNI drops to WIU or Elon drops their game.

[joecooll6]

Joe, nice work. Minor point. WM will likely be ranked above Montana in the new GPI that comes out tomorrow by virtue of this week's results. Montana beat unranked Northern Colorado and WM beat #8 UNH. That will end the tie. Next week WM plays a much higher ranked UR than Montana's opponent MSU. If WM beats UR then they will finish above Montana in the GPI.

Also, you rank VU above Montana for seeding and I agree. But, using that logic WM should also be seeded above Montana in the 3 spot. VU and WM will have virtually identical resumes.

Three versus four seed probably doesn't matter much, but I'm curious why a 10-1 VU is above Montana, but not a 10-1 WM (or UR if they win next week)?

Right now Villanova is #1 in the GPI, W&M will likely be #4 next week. I dont think the committee will put Montana down to four if they are undefeated. More likely, actually, they will put them at 1 or 2 and and 2 of the VU UR/W&M and SIU crowd will be 3 and 4.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Part III- The Bubbles

-Bubbles- Last and least the bubble teams. I have rated them by the likelihood of them getting in if they win, not by where I think its stands now, just FYI.

BUBBLES BURST- Three this week. First it was Florida A&M getting shut down by Hampton (ha! Hampton) 25-0, ending the Rattlers playoff dreams. Then it was Delaware, who, despite leading at halftime, couldn’t pull off the miracle and lost to Navy. Finally, the Southland fray had SFA and McNeese come out victorious, leaving Texas State and Southeastern Louisiana ineliable, making it impossible for the Southland to sport a 3rd playoff team. There are 5 bubble teams left (and another 2 possibly lurking depending on what goes down).

#13) Montana State (7-3), Next Week: Montana (10-0)
-Montana State’s resume is very very interesting. If they pull off the win this weekend, they would have beaten Montana, the only team in the country that could say that, and Weber State who is likely going to be 7-4, on the road. They also got beat by fellow bubble team Eastern Washington, lost to 5-5 Northern Arizona at home and got blown out by 41 in their FBS game vs. Michigan State, and needed overtime to beat transitional DI South Dakota (who UNI beat 66-7) and beat D2 Dixie State by 3. If it comes down to EWU vs. MSU, it will be very, very interesting to see if the committee values the two quality wins more, or if it values the head to head loss to EWU more. Montana State’s GPI is currently 23. And MSU would only have 7 DI wins not 8. Also, if Montana wins as expected, this would all be a moot point.

#14) Northern Iowa (7-3), Next Week: @ Illinois State (5-5)
-The Panthers claimed a businesslike 34-0 win over hapless Western Illinois last week. The game was not very pretty, and the Panthers, and Pat Grace especially, didn’t look as good in real life as they did on paper. They seem to have lost that magic that they had at the beginning of the year, and they better find it or they will lose next week in Normal. There is a 95% chance Papa T and I will be there watching the Cats try to make their case for the playoffs. UNI’s resume includes three losses, a 1 point loss to FBS Iowa, 7 point loss at home to 9-1 SIU, and a 10 point loss @ 7-3 SDSU. Unfortunately for UNI, their best win is over 6-5 Missouri State. But they don’t have any losses that are even somewhat bad, and their GPI is currently 8, and is likely going to go to 6 next week, which is a huge feather in their cap, and the Panthers would also have 8 DI wins with a win, which is also helpful to them. If the Panthers can win next week, they will definitely be in the conversation, and if MSU loses to Montana they will feel good about their chances.

#17) Eastern Washington (7-3), Next Week: @ Northern Arizona (5-5)
-The Eagles got off to an early lead, and weathered a torrid comeback last week against 4-6 Southern Utah to pull out a 41-28 win that was more of a blowout than it looks like. The Eagles are carrying a 42 point loss to their FBS foe Cal, a loss to 10-0 Montana (by 7 in Missoula) and an 18 point loss at home to Weber State who will likely be 7-4. EWU’s best win is over Montana State, and they have a D2 win. Their GPI is at 13 right now. The game in Arizona wont be easy as NAU is a decent team and it will be on the road. If EWU can pull it out though, and MSU wins too, and UNI, it will be a decent debate as to who should be in the playoffs.

#18) Liberty (8-2), Next Week: @ Stony Brook (5-5)
-Liberty trailed by one at the half last week, but won the second half 24-0 to beat Gardner-Webb, 51-28. If this were next year, their game with Stony Brook this week would be for the Big South’s playoff spot. Instead its just for the Big South title. The Flames playoff hopes most likely hinge on a win this week and some teams (like Elon, UNI, EWU, and MSU) losing. They have a D2 win, so they really would only be 8-2. Also, their biggest win is over Lafayette, the 8-2 2nd place team in the Patriot League. Their biggest win over a fully funded scholarship team is over any of the three 5-5 teams they beat in the Big South. They have losses to FBS West Virginia, and James Madison, who is now 5-5 in the CAA and not looking like AS BAD of a loss. Their GPI is currently 21. If Liberty wins next week they likely need some teams above them to lose, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the committee let them in, but Id be a little shocked.

#19.) Lafayette (8-2), Next Week: @ Lehigh (3-7)
-After losing to Holy Cross last week, the Patriot League’s runner up’s playoff hopes are for an at large bid. The likelihood of that happening is minimal though (even though they would have 9 DI wins) because they lost to Liberty at home, 19-13. Lafayette’s OOC slate does include wins over the top two Ivy League teams, for what its worth (which isn’t much). That makes them somewhat intrigueing. Still, their loss to Liberty would mean that LU would probably have to get in before them, which would mean that MSU, EWU and UNI would all have to lose for Lafayette to have a decent shot. The only real thing they got going for them is 9 DI wins. So who knows. Their GPI is currently 24 but should fall after their loss last week. Also, keep in mind they are playing Lehigh, their archrivals. Even though Lehigh’s record isnt very good this is a hardcore rivalry so a loss by Laffy is definitely possible this week.

-Lurkers

*Eastern Illinois (8-2)- I consider Eastern Illinois a bubble team if they lose to Tennessee State and EKU beats Jax State. If EIU wins, or EKU loses (both of which or likely), EIU’s bubble disentegrates and they are in with the OVC auto bid. If EIU is 8-3 and without autobid, their resume isnt too great. They have a blowout loss to FBS Penn State, a loss to EKU (who would be 6-5 in this scenario) and would have a bad loss to 4-7 Tennessee State. Their best wins would be over 7-4 Jax State and Illinois State who would be either 6-5 or 5-6. It could happen, but I think if the top 4 bubble teams hold serve an 8-3 EIU wouldn’t get in ahead of them, and they should just win this week so they don’t have to worry about it anyway.

#20) Weber State (6-4), This week: Cal Poly (4-6)
-If a bunch of bubble teams lose (and all 5 of them are playing loseable games), and the whole system falls down to 7-4 teams, look no further than Weber State. The Wildcats didn’t play a D2 game, so the still would have the necessary 7 wins with a win, and their losses are by 7 to FBS Wyoming, by 1 to FBS Colorado State, 7-3 Montana State and 10-0 Montana. They have wins over 7-3 Eastern Washington and 5-5 Northern Arizona, and their GPI is right in there with the bubble teams at 16. I think EWU, MSU and UNI would definitely be in over them, but if two of those teams lose, Weber is back in the conversation and being compared to Liberty and Lafayette. Also, two other teams to consider if ALL hell breaks loose and a lot of bubble teams lose are Florida A&M (who would be 8-3 with 8 DI wins, but in the terrible terrible MEAC and has a very bad loss to Hampton, GPI=33 before this week’s loss) and Colgate (who would be 9-2 out of the Patriot League with 9 DI wins, but lost to both Holy Cross and Lafayette so they are the 3rd team out of the Patriot League and HIGHLY unlikely GPI=41).

HUNDRED PLUS...TEAMS..DIDN'T GET DUH CHANCE......BAH DUH WAY....JES' MESSIN'...AN' DAT IS UH VERAH IMPRESSIVE BODAH O' RESEARCH...xthumbsupx...AWK!!

[WMTribe90]

Right now Villanova is #1 in the GPI, W&M will likely be #4 next week. I dont think the committee will put Montana down to four if they are undefeated. More likely, actually, they will put them at 1 or 2 and and 2 of the VU UR/W&M and SIU crowd will be 3 and 4.

I agree that the committee will likely put Montana at 1 or 2, but I thought these were your picks based on your analysis, which is why I asked why VU was above Montana, but not a nearly identical 10-1 UR/WM?

Like I said, IF WM wins out they will be top 2-3 GPI and above Montana. They would have a better resume when you stack WM's 10 DI wins against Montana's 10 DI wins.

So, if you're predicting what the committee WILL do, I agree Montana will likely be a top 2 seed. If you're predicting what SHOULD happen, then I'd still be curious as to the rationale.

[joecooll6]

I agree that the committee will likely put Montana at 1 or 2, but I thought these were your picks based on your analysis, which is why I asked why VU was above Montana, but not a nearly identical 10-1 UR/WM?

Like I said, IF WM wins out they will be top 2-3 GPI and above Montana. They would have a better resume when you stack WM's 10 DI wins against Montana's 10 DI wins.

So, if you're predicting what the committee WILL do, I agree Montana will likely be a top 2 seed. If you're predicting what SHOULD happen, then I'd still be curious as to the rationale.

I guess what I did, without making a concious decision to, was group SIU, VU and UM into a group, since most people are assuming they are going to be the top 3 seeds, and I didnt really consider anyone else for the top 3.

[rcny46]

Do you think they both make it in over UNI? Look at the resumes. I think ours is better between EWU and UNI if both finish 8-3.

Actually,when I was considering the possibilities,I mis-counted,and had 17 teams in instead of 16.I definitely think UNI would have the better resume vs EWU.Time for some remedial math instruction.McNeese has a difficult game,and a loss might eliminate them.:o

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Actually,when I was considering the possibilities,I mis-counted,and had 17 teams in instead of 16.I definitely think UNI would have the better resume vs EWU.Time for some remedial math instruction.McNeese has a difficult game,and a loss might eliminate them.:o

I don't see how UNI's schedule/results is in any way better than EWU's. Both are average at best.

UNI 7-3
9/05 @ No. 22 Iowa (9-2) L 17-16
9/12 South Dakota (5-5) W 66-7
9/19 St. Francis (PA) (2-8) W 30-0
9/26 @ Missouri State (6-5) W 35-7
10/03 Indiana State (1-10) W 62-7
10/10 @ North Dakota State (3-7) W 42-27
10/17 Southern Illinois (9-1) L 27-20
10/24 @ South Dakota State (7-3) L 24-14
11/07 Youngstown State (5-5) W 28-7
11/14 Western Illinois (1-9) W 34-0
11/21 @ Illinois State (5-5) 1:00 PM

EWU 7-3
9/05 Western Oregon (D-II)(5-5) W 35-14
9/12 @ No. 10 California (7-3) L 59-7
9/19 Northern Colorado (3-8) W 16-0
9/26 @ Sacramento State (4-6) W 56-30
10/03 @ Idaho State (1-10) W 38-3
10/10 Weber State (6-4) L 31-13
10/17 @ Montana (10-0) L 41-34
10/24 Montana State (6-3) W 35-24
10/31 Portland State (2-9) W 47-10
11/14 @ Southern Utah (4-6) W 41-28
11/21 @ Northern Arizona (5-5) 5:05 PM

I've color-coded the games that I think are equivalent opponents/outcomes between the two teams. I know it's a little hard to read, but I don't know how I could format it differently. The schedules and outcomes are virtually the same.

[joecooll6]

I don't see how UNI's schedule/results is in any way better than EWU's. Both are average at best.

UNI 7-3
9/05 @ No. 22 Iowa (9-2) L 17-16
9/12 South Dakota (5-5) W 66-7
9/19 St. Francis (PA) (2-8) W 30-0
9/26 @ Missouri State (6-5) W 35-7
10/03 Indiana State (1-10) W 62-7
10/10 @ North Dakota State (3-7) W 42-27
10/17 Southern Illinois (9-1) L 27-20
10/24 @ South Dakota State (7-3) L 24-14
11/07 Youngstown State (5-5) W 28-7
11/14 Western Illinois (1-9) W 34-0
11/21 @ Illinois State (5-5) 1:00 PM

EWU 7-3
9/05 Western Oregon (D-II)(5-5) W 35-14
9/12 @ No. 10 California (7-3) L 59-7
9/19 Northern Colorado (3-8) W 16-0
9/26 @ Sacramento State (4-6) W 56-30
10/03 @ Idaho State (1-10) W 38-3
10/10 Weber State (6-4) L 31-13
10/17 @ Montana (10-0) L 41-34
10/24 Montana State (6-3) W 35-24
10/31 Portland State (2-9) W 47-10
11/14 @ Southern Utah (4-6) W 41-28
11/21 @ Northern Arizona (5-5) 5:05 PM

I've color-coded the games that I think are equivalent opponents/outcomes between the two teams. I know it's a little hard to read, but I don't know how I could format it differently. The schedules and outcomes are virtually the same.

Cal 59, EWU 7 and Iowa 17, UNI 16 are not the same. I know a loss is a loss, but these two games clearly send different messages about the quality of the teams that lost.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Cal 59, EWU 7 and Iowa 17, UNI 16 are not the same. I know a loss is a loss, but these two games clearly send different messages about the quality of the teams that lost.


Not exactly. I think it says more about the opponents played. Iowa has been overrated all season, having to come from behind to win against teams they should have smothered. Cal was also a little overrated, but is a much tougher FBS team than Iowa.

[FargoBison]

Not exactly. I think it says more about the opponents played. Iowa has been overrated all season, having to come from behind to win against teams they should have smothered. Cal was also a little overrated, but is a much tougher FBS team than Iowa.


Really???

Iowa 27
Arizona 17

Cal 24
Arizona 17

I also see these results on Cal's schedule...

Oregon 42
Cal 3

USC 30
Cal 3

Oregon State 31
Cal 14

Iowa beat Penn State(on the road), beat Wisconsin(on the road), took Ohio State into OT with their backup QB(on the road). No team has crushed them like Cal has been beaten three times.

Iowa>>>Cal

[uofmman1122]

Really???

Iowa 27
Arizona 17

Cal 24
Arizona 17

I also see these results on Cal's schedule...

Oregon 42
Cal 3

USC 30
Cal 3

Oregon State 31
Cal 14

Iowa beat Penn State(on the road), beat Wisconsin(on the road), took Ohio State into OT(on the road). No team has crushed them like Cal has been beaten three times.

Iowa>>>CalI see your reasoning, and I don't disagree, but I fail to see what this has to do with UNI and EWU.

Just because UNI played Iowa close, and EWU lost to Cal badly does not mean that UNI is therefore better and more deserving than EWU.

UNI has played, IMO, three good teams all year, and lost to all of them.

EWU has played, IMO, four good teams all year, and lost to three and beat one.

Honestly, the only thing keeping UNI in the polls so high right now is their game against Iowa and their name. Had they lost to Iowa by 40 and then lost to SDSU and SIU at home, people would probably have them around 12-15, much like EWU is now. The only difference is that EWU doesn't have their name to rely on to give them a good ranking in preseason.

[FargoBison]

I see your reasoning, and I don't disagree, but I fail to see what this has to do with UNI and EWU.

Just because UNI played Iowa close, and EWU lost to Cal badly does not mean that UNI is therefore better and more deserving than EWU.

UNI has played, IMO, three good teams all year, and lost to all of them.

EWU has played, IMO, four good teams all year, and lost to three and beat one.

Honestly, the only thing keeping UNI in the polls so high right now is their game against Iowa and their name. Had they lost to Iowa by 40 and then lost to SDSU and SIU at home, people would probably have them around 12-15, much like EWU is now. The only difference is that EWU doesn't have their name to rely on to give them a good ranking in preseason.

I just wanted to point out that Iowa is better than Cal and when teams like UNI and EWU are both 8-3 it may come down to something like that.

For the record I'll take the top of the MVFC over the top of the Big Sky any day. UNI is ahead of EWU because the pollsters think they are better. Just look at how the top of the MVFC has fared against the FBS...they lost their three games by a combined 7 points to teams that are all .500 or better.

[MacThor]

I agree that the committee will likely put Montana at 1 or 2, but I thought these were your picks based on your analysis, which is why I asked why VU was above Montana, but not a nearly identical 10-1 UR/WM?


Head to head?

[joecooll6]

Not exactly. I think it says more about the opponents played. Iowa has been overrated all season, having to come from behind to win against teams they should have smothered. Cal was also a little overrated, but is a much tougher FBS team than Iowa.

1.) I completely disagree with that

2.) It doesnt matter if Cal is better than Iowa, which they arent. They arent so much better that a 52 point loss to them is the same as a 1 point loss to Iowa.

[unigriff]

Simple fact that would get us in over EWU...UNI didn't play a DII this year. You did...and only won by 21? If we count USD as a D2 (transitional)....we still won 62-7.

[uofmman1122]

Simple fact that would get us in over EWU...UNI didn't play a DII this year. You did...and only won by 21? If we count USD as a D2 (transitional)....we still won 62-7.You also haven't beaten anyone in the top 25, and only one team with a winning record. The only legitimate thing keeping UNI ranked so highly is their loss to Iowa and their name.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Simple fact that would get us in over EWU...UNI didn't play a DII this year. You did...and only won by 21? If we count USD as a D2 (transitional)....we still won 62-7.

Oh. My bad.


I guess I was under the impression that St Francis (PA) and Indiana State were D-II. I guess I'm mistaken... they're clearly touch D-I competition. xcoffeex

[Chi Panther]

You also haven't beaten anyone in the top 25, and only one team with a winning record. The only legitimate thing keeping UNI ranked so highly is their loss to Iowa and their name.

Some will argue the Iowa game, UNI winning at half time against SIU and SDSU even though we turned the ball over 6 times with even more fumbles UNI recovered, that UNI has the Number 1 scoring Defense in the country....

I will only argue UNI is rated soo high because of the UNI name. Thats it. Look at what UNI has accomplished the past 4 years and this IS our most talented team.xthumbsupxxpeacex

[unigriff]

Oh. My bad.


I guess I was under the impression that St Francis (PA) and Indiana State were D-II. I guess I'm mistaken... they're clearly touch D-I competition. xcoffeex

Fact is Fact...get over it:) Are you still upset over 2005?

[joecooll6]

Great...... I have help........ xoopsx