Week #12 USA Today Sagarin Ratings

[Keenan]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

#1 Villanova NC
#2 William & Mary +1
#3 Richmond -1
#4 Southern Illinois NC
#5 Montana NC
#6 Northern Iowa NC
#7 South Dakota State NC
#8 Appalachian State +13
#9 New Hampshire -1
#10 Eastern Washington NC
#11 Elon NC
#12 Weber State +2
#13 James Madison +4
#14 Stephen F. Austin +6
#15 Liberty +7
#16 Delaware NC
#17 Jacksonville State -8
#18 Montana State +1
#19 Northern Arizona -7
#20 McNeese State +5
#21 Pennsylvania +7
#22 Massachusetts -7
#23 South Carolina State -10
#24 UC Davis NC
#25 Lafayette +5
#26 Eastern Illinois -8
#27 Holy Cross +10
#28 Southern Utah -5
#29 Maine +5
#30 Furman +20
#31 Texas State -4
#32 Cal Poly-SLO -6
#33 South Dakota +5
#34 North Dakota -3
#35 Missouri State NC
#36 Youngstown State +5
#37 Harvard +5
#38 Illinois State -9
#39 Samford +++Not in Top 50 last week+++
#40 SE Louisiana -8
#41 Sacramento State +2
#42 Prairie View A&M -3
#43 Colgate +2
#44 Central Arkansas -8
#45 Hofstra -5
#46 Brown NC
#47 Chattanooga +++Not in Top 50 last week+++
#48 North Dakota State -1
#49 Georgia Southern +3 +++Not in Top 50 last week+++
#50 Stony Brook -2

Dropped Out
#54 Florida A&M -21
#60 Eastern Kentucky -16
#62 Tennessee Tech -13

Big South
#15 Liberty +7
#50 Stony Brook -2
#63 Charleston Southern +23
#64 Coastal Carolina -2
#65 Gardner-Webb +11
#92 VMI +12
#114 Presbyterian +6

[WestCoastAggie]

I do not like the fact that Sagarin uses margin of victory in the equation.

#23 South Carolina State -10 (Thanks to FAMU losing 25-0 to Hampton) xsmhx

[SDSUJacks]

App State, Furman and Holy Cross were the big winners yesterday. Really surprised that South Carolina State fell like they did, no reason for it. Happy to see the Jacks weren't penalized, I thought they may lose maybe 2 spots.

[WestCoastAggie]

App State, Furman and Holy Cross were the big winners yesterday. Really surprised that South Carolina State fell like they did, no reason for it. Happy to see the Jacks weren't penalized, I thought they may lose maybe 2 spots.

The Bulldogs fell because their strength of schedule fell. This fell because FAMU not only lost by 25 pts to a team with 5 losses, they were shut out.

Sagarin uses margin of victories in the equation to compute the rankings.

[Skjellyfetti]

Yeah, I don't like Sagarin ratings for our subdivision at all. App jumps over a dozen schools... when a human observer could see that they looked like a better football team than those 13 schools.

I also don't think it makes sense to drop SC State 10 spots just because FAMU lost.

JMU 13? Pennsylvania 21? Liberty 15? Sagarin is bad.

[SDSUJacks]

The Bulldogs fell because their strength of schedule fell. This fell because FAMU not only lost by 25 pts to a team with 5 losses, they were shut out.

Sagarin uses margin of victories in the equation to compute the rankings.

I understand it effects their SOS, but they still went out and took care of business yesterday. At worst, I think SCSU should only drop 1 or 2 spots, if any at all.

[Keenan]

Yeah, I don't like Sagarin ratings for our subdivision at all. App jumps over a dozen schools... when a human observer could see that they looked like a better football team than those 13 schools.

I also don't think it makes sense to drop SC State 10 spots just because FAMU lost.

JMU 13? Pennsylvania 21? Liberty 15? Sagarin is bad.

Like it or not, Sagarin is used in GPI. How does App jump over a dozen schools? Who had they beaten prior to this weekend? Their ranking is finally justified in the human polls.

[WestCoastAggie]

I understand it effects their SOS, but they still went out and took care of business yesterday. At worst, I think SCSU should only drop 1 or 2 spots, if any at all.

I wholeheartedly agree. But right now. It doesn't matter for SCSU. they won the MEAC and are looking to hosting a first round game.

[WMTribe90]

Actually, UPenn will crack my top 25 this week and I think Liberty should be in the 16-17 range, as you would expect for a bubble team. JMU is too high given their record. Overall, Sagarin is a good tool.

[4th and What?]

I also don't think it makes sense to drop SC State 10 spots just because FAMU lost.

JMU 13? Pennsylvania 21? Liberty 15? Sagarin is bad.

The SC State thing doesn't make sense, especially since they do continue to win by 3 touchdowns or more against most of their opponents.

Other than that, looks fine to me. You think SC State should be around 15, but then call Liberty out at 15 as being ridiculous? Where is the big difference in resume? They are both blowing out their lower tier competition. Liberty at least kept the game with WVU close, while SC State got blown out by USC.

JMU's only bad loss is Hofstra, took Richmond to the wire, and has wins over the #29, #22, and #16 which you have no issue with. So why is #13 so far off? Not bad, their non-Hofstra losses are to #1, #2, and #3.

[WestCoastAggie]

The SC State thing doesn't make sense, especially since they do continue to win by 3 touchdowns or more against most of their opponents.

Other than that, looks fine to me. You think SC State should be around 15, but then call Liberty out at 15 as being ridiculous? Where is the big difference in resume? They are both blowing out their lower tier competition. Liberty at least kept the game with WVU close, while SC State got blown out by USC.

JMU's only bad loss is Hofstra, took Richmond to the wire, and has wins over the #29, #22, and #16 which you have no issue with. So why is #13 so far off? Not bad, their non-Hofstra losses are to #1, #2, and #3.

SC. St. was within 3 at halftime.

[4th and What?]

SC. St. was within 3 at halftime.

And was down 31-7 at the end of the third quarter......and I'm not saying bad things about SC State, the only game I have watched this year was the SC State/FAMU game, and they looked like a good team. I just think they have a similar resume to Liberty, especially now that FAMU has been exposed a bit.

[TheValleyRaider]

3...TCU....91.49
4...Texas..91.05

I don't know, Sagarin's numbers look pretty solid to me :D

Margin of Victory is good to have in there. Teams that win by blowout consistently should be rewarded, and the occasional close game won't kill a team's ranking all by itself. Caveats about small sample size apply throughout, but we should also keep in mind that MOV has a degree of diminishing returns. Beating a team by 20 is better than winning by 10, but that quantitative difference is lower when the two margins in question are 40 and 30

For a team like SCSU, the biggest thing that probably killed them wasn't FAMU losing, but the fact the Bulldogs lined up against Morgan State who is currently #209. Add that to teams who were able to improve their SOS by playing better opponents then they had previously, and SCSU is going to get jumped. Remember that SOS only takes into account games played, not games remaining on the schedule.

[WestCoastAggie]

And was down 31-7 at the end of the third quarter......and I'm not saying bad things about SC State, the only game I have watched this year was the SC State/FAMU game, and they looked like a good team. I just think they have a similar resume to Liberty, especially now that FAMU has been exposed a bit.

SCSU beat FAMU by more than 14 pts and was up by 21 at the half.

[Keenan]

Eastern Washington,Weber St. and Montana St. all look to have an inside tract on that final at large spot.

#10 Eastern Washington NC
#11 Elon NC
#12 Weber State +2
#13 James Madison +4
#14 Stephen F. Austin +6
#15 Liberty +7
#16 Delaware NC
#17 Jacksonville State -8
#18 Montana State +1