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JALMOND
November 10th, 2009, 02:54 AM
Well, the season is finally coming to a close. This week, three teams play their last regular season game (ISU, UNC and PSU) while two others (Sac State and WSU) play their last conference game. Do we have anything left to settle? Even with the scare in Pocatello last week, the Griz still are the team to beat. The main question is, will the Big Sky get one or maybe two more teams in to the playoff field? Here are this week's power rankings. As usual, these are strictly my opinion only and all are open for discussion. This week (last week).

1. Montana (1)---OK, sure, the Grizzlies got the win at Idaho State last week, but it was definitely not how they thought they would do it, needing a field goal in the last minutes of the game. Losing to the Bengals might not have cost them the top spot (hard to say), but it definitely gave some hope to those teams the Grizzlies still have to play. This week, Northern Colorado comes to town. Before and on paper a sure win. But now?

2. Weber State (2)---The Wildcats took advantage of a rest in their season to gear up for the last two games of the year. For them, simple. Just win and hope to get selected for an at large bid into the playoffs. First off, the last conference game of the year as Northern Arizona comes to town. Well, no one said it was going to be easy.

3. Eastern Washington (3)---Just like Weber State, the Eagles took last week off to gear up for a dash to the finish. Hard to imagine that they could leapfrog over Weber State somehow and earn an at large, but stranger things have happened. One thing for sure, they need to win and this week, they stay out of conference and head down to the Great West's Southern Utah.

4. Northern Arizona (4)---The Jacks took some time away from Big Sky play and moved up for a week to play some SEC competition, heading over to Mississippi. As expected, they lost, but there really was nothing unexpected, nor spectacular about the game. Just a loss, and not much worse than the opening loss to Arizona. This week, back to where the games count and they head up to Weber State. Someone will have their season destroyed.

5. Montana State (5)---The rain and the cold put a damper on the Bobcats second half performance last week against Portland State, yet the defense held on for the win. By the second half, no one really could get anything going and the Bobcats were glad to return victorious. This week, they stay at home and face the upstart Sacramento State team. This is the first of a two game home stand to finish the year, can they close out strong?

6. Sacramento State (6)---Great first half performance by the Hornets at Northern Colorado last week. However, things got interesting in the second half, but fortunately they were far enough in front to stymie the Bears' comeback attempt. The Hornets are rolling and hope to continue. This week, the final conference game finds them on the road at Montana State. Can they win out in conference?

7. Northern Colorado (7)---Great time to start playing for real is right after halftime, and the Bears stormed back against Sacramento State. However, they spotted the Hornets too big of a lead and therefore their rally fell short. Maybe they need to play a full game. They only have one more game left on their schedule and that is against Montana. The Bears might be feeling a little better heading in there after what Idaho State did last week.

8. Portland State (8)---Are the Vikings still playing or just playing out the string. A few good moments on the defense, but a terrible offensive performance enabled Montana State to leave with the win. The rain and the cold may have had something to do with it, but the Bobcats had to deal with it, too. This week, no weather issues as they head to Idaho State. Yet, after last week, this game is no gimme.

9. Idaho State (9)---Confidence. The Bengals have to have it now after coming so close to upsetting Montana last week. Somehow finding a way to keep the score down and having a chance to win is probably the best thing for the Bengals. They get to try one more time for a win, as they welcome a team that is equally struggling, Portland State. Can the Bengals go out winners?

Ronbo
November 10th, 2009, 06:47 AM
Eastern Washington and Montana State are the only teams left that have a prayer for an at-large playoff spot. There will be too many 9-2 and 8-3 teams to allow Weber State a chance. They are done.

EdubAlum
November 10th, 2009, 11:03 AM
Eastern Washington and Montana State are the only teams left that have a prayer for an at-large playoff spot. There will be too many 9-2 and 8-3 teams to allow Weber State a chance. They are done.

agreed

kalm
November 10th, 2009, 11:41 AM
I disagree.

With 5 teams in the GPI top 25 a 7-4 BSC will be a toss up against a 9-2 and especially an 8-3 team from a weaker conference with potentially the same amount of DI wins.

GrizFanStuckInUtah
November 10th, 2009, 11:55 AM
I disagree.

With 5 teams in the GPI top 25 a 7-4 BSC will be a toss up against a 9-2 and especially an 8-3 team from a weaker conference with potentially the same amount of DI wins.

ECB is going to win out, we will be lucky to get 2 teams in. We won this week and fell in the polls. xrulesxxcoffeex

Silenoz
November 10th, 2009, 12:05 PM
Since this is UNC's final game I don't doubt they're going to come to play, but we'd better have a fire under our ass and win by 40+. Make a statement

kalm
November 10th, 2009, 12:12 PM
ECB is going to win out, we will be lucky to get 2 teams in. We won this week and fell in the polls. xrulesxxcoffeex

Which is why the committee uses something similar to the GPI that combines polls and computer rankings. And that's why I brought up the GPI instead of the current polls. Using a human poll where probably 90% of the voters live east of the Mississippi is no way to determine if a 7-4 Weber State is a better team than an 8-3 Lafayette.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 12:16 PM
Eastern Washington and Montana State are the only teams left that have a prayer for an at-large playoff spot. There will be too many 9-2 and 8-3 teams to allow Weber State a chance. They are done.

What makes MSU and EWU any different? A DII win?!???

Blazerbird
November 10th, 2009, 12:40 PM
Yes.

JALMOND
November 10th, 2009, 12:45 PM
ECB is going to win out, we will be lucky to get 2 teams in. We won this week and fell in the polls. xrulesxxcoffeex

I think this is close to the truth and something Big Sky fans should realize. The games remaining...

NAU @ WSU---the loser is done, and that is a good team that will be staying home.

If NAU wins, next week---

EWU @ NAU---the loser is done, another good team staying home.

If Weber wins, next week---

Cal Poly @ WSU---Even if the Wildcats win, no guarantee they are in for sure. Possibly another good team staying home.

EWU wins out (@SUU, @NAU), will they go? The committee is a funny bunch and would they consider the Eagles, knowing that they were banned from the playoffs earlier in the year (just reinstated two weeks ago). Is that, and the ugly home loss to WSU enough of a reason to keep them home?

Montana State has an ugly home loss to NAU and needs to win both games to get to seven wins (home to Sac State and Montana). Can they beat the Griz? Can they beat the Hornets? Will that be enough to put them in?

Remains to be seen. xoopsx I have a headache.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 01:03 PM
Which is why the committee uses something similar to the GPI that combines polls and computer rankings. And that's why I brought up the GPI instead of the current polls. Using a human poll where probably 90% of the voters live east of the Mississippi is no way to determine if a 7-4 Weber State is a better team than an 8-3 Lafayette.

This year, EWU, MSU, NAU and WSU are all far superior to Lafayette and every other Patriot League team. UNC, PSU and SSU would probably have a fair chance of beating them, too.

JALMOND
November 10th, 2009, 01:07 PM
This year, EWU, MSU, NAU and WSU are all far superior to Lafayette and every other Patriot League team. UNC, PSU and SSU would probably have a fair chance of beating them, too.

PSU would have a fair chance at beating Presbyterian. Anything above that is highly subjective.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 01:57 PM
Eastern Washington and Montana State are the only teams left that have a prayer for an at-large playoff spot. There will be too many 9-2 and 8-3 teams to allow Weber State a chance. They are done.

Statistically, the most likely regular season finishes for the BSC second-place contenders are:

1. Weber beats NAU and Cal Poly at home to finish with 7 DI wins.

2. Eastern Washington loses at both Southern Utah and Northern Arizona to finish with 5 DI wins.

Note: I think EWU will beat the odds and win at least one of these two road games to finish with 6 DI wins.

3. Northern Arizona loses on the road wt Weber and beats Eastern Washington at home to finish with 6 DI wins.

4. Montana State beats Sac State and loses to Montana to finish with 6 DI wins.

Here are the predicted score differentials using this week's Sagarin ratings:

EWU 1 point underdog at SUU, 2 point underdog at NAU

NAU 3 point underdog at Weber, 2 point advantage hosting EWU

Weber 3 point advantage hosting NAU, 10 point advantage hosting Cal Poly

MSU is favored by more than 2 TDs over Sac State and is nearly a TD underdog at home against Montana.


ANY ONE OF THESE BIG SKY SECOND PLACE CONTENDERS WOULD BE FAVORED OVER ANY PATRIOT OR BIG SOUTH TEAM ON A NEUTRAL FIELD WITH A SINGLE EXCEPTION: LIBERTY HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER MONTANA STATE. THIS IS NOT BASED ON MY OPINION OR SUBJECTIVE POLLS, BUT COMPUTER ODDS BASED OBJECTIVELY ON THE RESULTS OF MORE THAN A THOUSAND GAMES INCLUDING LAFAYETTE'S LOSS TO LIBERTY AND LIBERTY'S LOSS TO JAMES MADISON. THE MAJOR POWER RATINGS ARE PRETTY DARNED ACCURATE BY THIS TIME OF THE SEASON.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 02:01 PM
Yes.

Nope. The DII games don't count for anything and you should be ashamed to brag on them or even bring them up.

The real difference between the Big Sky second place contenders is the power ratings. EWU is rightly rated very highly and ahead of Weber at this point in the season.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 02:20 PM
PSU would have a fair chance at beating Presbyterian. Anything above that is highly subjective.

It's the blogger opinions and polls that are subjective, not the computer power ratings, especially at this time of year with more than a thousand games played and results added to the data pool.

JALMOND
November 10th, 2009, 03:21 PM
It's the blogger opinions and polls that are subjective, not the computer power ratings, especially at this time of year with more than a thousand games played and results added to the data pool.

I should have said highly debatable. Poor choice of words on my part. How we were playing at the beginning of the year with a healthy Hubel is far different than how we are playing now with an injured Hubel or healthy Kavanaugh. Polls and ratings usually take into account the year as a whole. Right now we are a totally different team.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 03:25 PM
I should have said highly debatable. Poor choice of words on my part. How we were playing at the beginning of the year with a healthy Hubel is far different than how we are playing now with an injured Hubel or healthy Kavanaugh. Polls and ratings usually take into account the year as a whole. Right now we are a totally different team.

That kind of insight is exactly the advantage that humans have over computers, and most polls, too! xthumbsupx

Walkon79
November 10th, 2009, 07:15 PM
Again, I would flip-flop NAU and MSU

Blazerbird
November 10th, 2009, 07:18 PM
Nobody's bragging here Native, and you're the one who brought up DII wins. If Eastern doesn't make the playoffs it's only because they didn't win the games they needed to, not because another team padded their schedule. Same goes for everybody else. If you don't want the answer, don't ask the question.

Native
November 10th, 2009, 07:28 PM
...If Eastern doesn't make the playoffs it's only because they didn't win the games they needed to, not because another team padded their schedule. Same goes for everybody else. ...

Agreed!

Native
November 10th, 2009, 07:32 PM
Nobody's bragging here Native, and you're the one who brought up DII wins. ...If you don't want the answer, don't ask the question.

It would not have been my answer, BB, and I doubt that the DII game makes any difference at all to the selection committee.

My answer is that EWU is rightly ranked higher in the GPI and other power ratings at this point in time. If that condition still pertains at selection time, that's what will get Eastern Washington into the playoffs, and if that happens, I will be rooting for the Eagles. xpeacex

But counting any DII game is just offensive and reflects poorly on the Big Sky Conference, in my obviously-not-so-humble opinion. :o

wapiti
November 10th, 2009, 10:01 PM
If UM plays like they did against ISU for their last two games, then the Griz will most likely lose their last two games, and not earn the AQ, and the BSC ranking will be a bit more jumbled.

GrizFanStuckInUtah
November 10th, 2009, 10:05 PM
If UM plays like they did against ISU for their last two games, then the Griz will most likely lose their last two games, and not earn the AQ, and the BSC ranking will be a bit more jumbled.

I would hope that poor outing was enough motivation to come back and play better. It is hard to think they could play that bad again, but AGS was in full effect last weekend. xnonono2x

GrizzlyEdd
November 11th, 2009, 12:16 AM
I disagree.

With 5 teams in the GPI top 25 a 7-4 BSC will be a toss up against a 9-2 and especially an 8-3 team from a weaker conference with potentially the same amount of DI wins.

In the two polls that the NCAA Committee considers (Sports Network & Coaches) the Griz did NOT drop. The Committee doesn't use the AGS poll...;)

JALMOND
November 11th, 2009, 01:51 PM
It would not have been my answer, BB, and I doubt that the DII game makes any difference at all to the selection committee.

My answer is that EWU is rightly ranked higher in the GPI and other power ratings at this point in time. If that condition still pertains at selection time, that's what will get Eastern Washington into the playoffs, and if that happens, I will be rooting for the Eagles. xpeacex

But counting any DII game is just offensive and reflects poorly on the Big Sky Conference, in my obviously-not-so-humble opinion. :o

A higher ranking in the GPI does not automatically give you an at large bid over a head to head win. In 2006, Portland State finished the year 10th in the GPI, Montana State was 14th, yet the Bobcats went to the playoffs and the Vikings stayed home, mainly because the Bobcats beat us.

kalm
November 11th, 2009, 03:08 PM
It would not have been my answer, BB, and I doubt that the DII game makes any difference at all to the selection committee.

My answer is that EWU is rightly ranked higher in the GPI and other power ratings at this point in time. If that condition still pertains at selection time, that's what will get Eastern Washington into the playoffs, and if that happens, I will be rooting for the Eagles. xpeacex

But counting any DII game is just offensive and reflects poorly on the Big Sky Conference, in my obviously-not-so-humble opinion. :o

ECGSL bias.;)