Playoffs Overview - Two Weeks To Go..

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:
The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Teams ineligible: Bryant, UTC, C. Arkansas, Jacksonville State, NC Central, North Dakota, Presbyterian, South Dakota, and Winston Salem St. A team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible for an at large berth. – ALSO there are teams with still a mathematical chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule and belief that they will lose but will add back in coming weeks as the potential field shrinks.

Below, are prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field of 16, regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.

1. Montana (9-0, 6-0 Big Sky)
The Games: N Colorado (11/14), at Montana State (11/21)

Outlook:IN The grizzles avoided an upset on Saturday to keep their undefeated regular season hopes alive, Montana State is the only real remaining threat to a achieving that. At stake is certainly a top 4 and possibly the #1 seed.

2. Villanova (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at Towson (11/14), Delaware (11/21)

Outlook: IN The outlook is great for Villanova - win out and you should be a Top 2 seed!

3. Southern Illinois (8-1, 7-0 MVC)
The Games: MO State (11/14), at SE MO St (11/21)

Outlook: IN S. Illinois took complete control of the MVC this weekend with a big victory over SDakSt. Two winnable games remain and if they win both, they grab a Top 4 seed.

4. Elon (8-1, 6-0 Southern)
The Games: ASU (11/14), at Samford (11/21)

Outlook: IN Elon has easily dispatched all the teams in the SoCon so far this year and now they will get their biggest test, ASU. A blockbuster game will decide the conference champion, and I believe a Top 4 seed.

5. Richmond (8-1, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: at Georgetown (11/14), W&M (11/21)

Outlook:IN The Spiders are headed back to the playoffs, but a top seed and Autobid is still a possibility


6. New Hampshire (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at W&M (11/14), Maine (11/21)

Outlook: IN The best thing for NH is their schedule, only W&M should pose a real threat and even at 3 losses they are in the field. They have a shot at capturing a top seed depending on other games.

7. William & Mary (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: N Hampshire (11/14), at Richmond (11/21)

Outlook: IN Two more losses could be in store for the tribe but if they win out they could steal the Autobid and secure a top seed. It is a horse race for the top 4 teams in the Colonial – last two weeks will sort it all out.

8. South Carolina State (7-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)

Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.

9. Appalachian State (7-2, 6-0 Southern)
The Games: at Elon (11/14), Western Carolina (11/21)

Outlook: The Mountaineers year was played out on Saturday as they had a hot start and went cold, but rallied to knock off the Mocs. Now the showdown with Elon is here, they will need a complete game to knock the Phoenix off. If they do I see a top 4 seed in their future with a winnable game vs WCU. A win in either of their last two games secures the Mountaineers post season berth.

10. Holy Cross (8-1, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Lafayette (11/14), at Bucknell (11/21)

Outlook: They have taken the lead in the Patriot, winning out will secure the Autobid. The goal is here is to keep winning – any lose could keep this team at home for Thanksgiving. The showdown with Lafayette looms large.

11. South Dakota State (7-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: Minnesota (11/14), at W. Illinois (11/21)

Outlook: The Jackrabbits failed to knock off S. Ill this weekend, now a loss at Minnesota appears likely, which could leave their final game a win and you are in scenario – a loss will end a great season.

12. McNeese State (7-2, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: at Texas State (11/14), C. Arkansas (11/21)

Outlook: A huge win at ASU keeps the Cowboys in – but a tough slate of games ahead could push this team right our of the post season. An Autobid is still within reach but any lose could put the Cowboys in jeopardy with a crowded field in the Southland.

13. Northern Iowa (6-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: W. Illinois (11/14), at Illinois State (11/21)

Outlook: MUST WIN OUT! Any loss keeps UNI at home for the holidays.

14. Eastern Kentucky/Eastern Illinois/ Tenn Tech/Tenn State (OVC)
The Games:

Outlook: AB No longer matters, a down year for this conference – someone will get the Autobid and that will be it. Eastern Illinois is starting to look like the winner of this shootout.

15. SF Austin (7-2, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: at SE Louisana (11/14), at N’western State (11/21)

Outlook: SFA got the victory this weekend and will need to beat SELouis to stay in the Autobid and playoff hunt.

16. Layfayette (8-1, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Holy Cross (11/14), at Lehigh (11/21)

Outlook: A big win over Colgate this weekend suddenly puts them in the playoff hunt. A conference showdown this coming weekend could sort the Patriot out.

17. E. Washington (6-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at S. Utah (11/14), at N. Arizona (11/21)

Outlook: EW is clearly back in the postseason hunt a win in their last two could secure a spot, but will the committee remember they just got off probation?

18. SE Louisana (6-3, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: SFA (11/14), Nichols State (11/21)

Outlook: Can still win the Autobid but a lot of football left to be played. They will need to keep winning as another loss sends the Lions packing.

19. Florida A&M (6-2, 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Hampton (11/14), at Bethune Cookman(11/21)

Outlook: An interesting scenario as the MEAC is making a run at two bids this year, the rattlers will need to win out to keep that talk going – if they do it would potentially eliminate a bubble team from around the country. A huge victory this weekend keeps the them in the mix and they must keep winning.

20. Liberty (7-2, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: at Gardner Webb (11/14), at Stony Brook (11/21)

Outlook: Things got a little brighter this weekend for the flames – they need a couple more weeks of elimination to be a true contender – losses by E. Washington, UNI, Delaware, SE Louis, Layfayette, and Colgate will really help their chances.

21. Texas State (6-3, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: McNeese St. (11/14), Sam Houston St. (11/21)

Outlook: Don’t look now but Texas State has a great shot at the postseason and autobid – they too will need to win out, any loss should kill their chances.

22. Montana State (6-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Sacramento State (11/14), Montana (11/21)

Outlook: Win out and you could be in the post season – slip up and you are certainly out. The game at Montana could be for a playoff bid.

23. Colgate (8-2, 3-2 Patriot)
The Games: Bucknell (11/14)

Outlook: Colgate saws its playoff hopes take a real hit this past weekend, they will need to win to stay in the mix, however they appear to be the 3rd team from the Patriot and there is no hope of 3 teams from this conference getting in.

24. Delaware (6-3, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: at Navy (11/14), at Villanova (11/21)

Outlook: The Hens will need to win their last two – that dream ends this Saturday.

25. Butler (9-0, 6-0 Pioneer)
The Games: at Jacksonville (11/14), Drake (11/21)

Outlook: An undefeated season is within their grasp, but they will need to do just that to be in consideration for an at large berth. A closer look at their schedule shows 3 division 3 wins – not likely for an at large bid.

26. Weber State (5-4, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: N Arizona (11/14), at Cal Poly (11/21)

Outlook: Weber may have played themselves right out of post season consideration – they really needed the win last weekend to keep hope alive – they still have a small outside chance, but again they must win out. Only the fact that two of their losses are to FBS schools keeps them in the playoff chase.

27. Drake (8-1, 6-0 Pioneer)
The Games: Dayton (11/14), at Butler (11/21)

Outlook: Looking like an at large bid for the Pioneer is fading away, but should several bubble teams start losing, things could change. For Drake they must win out.


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Holy Cross, A10: Villanova, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: SFA, Southern: Elon, Gateway: S. Illinois., MEAC: SCSt, OVC: E. Illinois

At-large: Richmond, N. Iowa, N. Hamp, W&M, SDakSt, ASU, McNeese, E.Wash

Seeds: Montana, Villanova, S. Illinois, Elon

Last In: SFA and E. Wash
Last Out: Fla A&M, Liberty, Texas State and Weber State

Bracket I: S. Dakota St at No. 1 Montana; E. Washington @ McNeese St.;
E. Illinois at No. 4 S. Illinois; N Hampshire at N. Iowa

Bracket II: Holy Cross at No. 2 Villanova; SFA @ Richmond;
W&M at No. 3 Elon; SCSt at ASU

NOTES:
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, SDak St/Montana and SCSt/ASU.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/Richmond
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – S Dakota State over Montana.
*NC game based on my projections, S. Illinois vs. Villanova – S. Illinois wins it all…

[JMU Newbill]

Looks pretty fair to me...

[TexasTerror]

As far as SLC...

You have McNeese winning the AQ, which means they beat TXST - thereby eliminating the Bobcats from at-large.

You have SFA in and as a large. The Lumberjacks beat McNeese. If SFA beats SLU and McN beats TXST, good chance of both tying for tops - which gets SFA the AQ.

[Go Apps]

Agreed to your comments - hard to keep up with all the scenarios - next week should provide a much clearer picture - just like the OVC - a mess right now..

[Sly Fox]

Point of clarification, Liberty needs for Lafayette to keep winning to help their cause based ont he Flames' victory in Easton this fall.

[4th and What?]

Looks good. The one itty bitty thing, you state for Liberty a loss by Lafayette would help. I disagree, they need Lafayette to take the PL Championship. Gives Liberty a much better sig win over the PL champ than the PL #2.

[ToTheLeft]

Looks good. The one itty bitty thing, you state for Liberty a loss by Lafayette would help. I disagree, they need Lafayette to take the PL Championship. Gives Liberty a much better sig win over the PL champ than the PL #2.

Exactly, and our head-to-head win over the 'Pards, combined with our only loss being to a hopefully 6-5 and ranked JMU team, would be a stronger resume than Lafayette.

[Gil Dobie]

Would a 1 loss team, Villanova be seeded over a team with no FCS losses, SIU?

[4th and What?]

Would a 1 loss team, Villanova be seeded over a team with no FCS losses, SIU?

You can argue it both ways easily. Also, does it matter? If they both win out they will both be in the top 3 seeds. So they are either playing in the championship or the semifinals no matter who is ranked slightly above one another. I suppose home field for the semi's would matter if they both get that far, but I just see a valid argument for both, and would strictly depend on the opinions of the committee.

[mcveyrl]

You can argue it both ways easily. Also, does it matter? If they both win out they will both be in the top 3 seeds. So they are either playing in the championship or the semifinals no matter who is ranked slightly above one another. I suppose home field for the semi's would matter if they both get that far, but I just see a valid argument for both, and would strictly depend on the opinions of the committee.

It's all about homefield in the semis, which is a big deal. Well, it should be. xbawlingx

If I were on the committee, I could not put a 10-1 SIU below a 10-1 'Nova considering when and to whom their losses came.

[4th and What?]

It's all about homefield in the semis, which is a big deal. Well, it should be. xbawlingx

If I were on the committee, I could not put a 10-1 SIU below a 10-1 'Nova considering when and to whom their losses came.

Yeah, my stream of conciousness post was me realizing that a #2 and #3 ranking would mean one had home field in the semi's, which obviously means a ton.

Do you rank an undefeated Montana above Villanova? I do, even though I think Villanova has a more impressive season with wins over W&M, @Temple, and @Richmond. Something is said for getting the wins, which Montana has done so far, and SIU has done in the FCS. Their lone loss would be @ FBS Marshall by 3 in the first game of the season.

While I think many people would pick Villanova to be ranked higher, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see SIU ranked above them, and I don't see much outrage over it.

[Houndawg]

I don't see how SIU doesn't get a 1 or 2 seed if they win out. No way the would, oops, should be seeded below Montana if both win out.

[Tailbone]

I don't see how SIU doesn't get a 1 or 2 seed if they win out. No way the would, oops, should be seeded below Montana if both win out.

10-1 vs. 11-0

[achrist70]

By your predictions the best 1st round matchup would be New Hampshire at UNI

[89Hen]

N Hampshire at N. Iowa
Do you really think the committee would send them there yet again? xeyebrowx

[kalm]

You can certainly make the case of all three CAA's getting a seed ahead or instead of Montana, but not SIU or the Southern champ. Their conferences aren't as solid from top to bottom as the Big Sky.

[WMTribe90]

10-1 vs. 11-0


Good point, Butler should be ranked number 1 in the country.



Or, maybe strength of schedule, who you beat and how you win should be considered?

VU has 8 DI wins. Montana has 8 DI wins.
VU has and FBS win. Montana has no FBS win.
VU ranked higher in sagarin.
VU has two top 25 wins (#1 and #5). Montana has two top 25 (no top ten).

Pretty good case can be made that VU, SIU and UR should all be ranked above Montana IMO.

[Go Apps]

Do you really think the committee would send them there yet again? xeyebrowx
Seems likely - if the Southland produces two teams and one more from the Big Sky makes it - I think so because of regional issues and conferences playing each other - avoiding that in round 1 - NH's schedule is less impressive than the others and W&M is so close to the SoCon contingent that would put them in the air - It is possible that UNI losses one of their last two - the two teams left to play are currently tied with them at 4-2 so this might be a mute point which I believe opens the door to another Patriot league team or perhaps Liberty...

[Go Apps]

You can certainly make the case of all three CAA's getting a seed ahead or instead of Montana, but not SIU or the Southern champ. Their conferences aren't as solid from top to bottom as the Big Sky.
If the Big Sky only gets one entrant into the post season - Montana - not sure the argument that the Big Sky is more competitive - it may be but I don't think it will be viewed that way - also should Montana lose one of it's final two games I think a top 4 seed could potentially be lost altogether - right now I believe that S. Illinois is a lock for a top 4 seed if they win out - same with Montana - I think the SoCon winner gets one and so does the winner of the CAA - just my opinion - nothing matters until the last two weeks are played out...

[kalm]

If the Big Sky only gets one entrant into the post season - Montana - not sure the argument that the Big Sky is more competitive - it may be but I don't think it will be viewed that way - also should Montana lose one of it's final two games I think a top 4 seed could potentially be lost altogether - right now I believe that S. Illinois is a lock for a top 4 seed if they win out - same with Montana - I think the SoCon winner gets one and so does the winner of the CAA - just my opinion - nothing matters until the last two weeks are played out...

One from each conference would make the most sense.

[iceman4221]

8. South Carolina State (7-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)

Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.

There are 4 seeded teams and 8 home teams out of the 16 team field...

Correct me if I am in error, but the bids for home games include facility's, attendance and $$$ to the NCAA - I thought this regional stuff was the domain of Division II Football Playoffs not FCS...

Can someone provide a link to this discussion on regional play for FCS football from the NCAA please. Thanks.

[Go Apps]

8. South Carolina State (7-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)

Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.

There are 4 seeded teams and 8 home teams out of the 16 team field...

Correct me if I am in error, but the bids for home games include facility's, attendance and $$$ to the NCAA - I thought this regional stuff was the domain of Division II Football Playoffs not FCS...

Can someone provide a link to this discussion on regional play for FCS football from the NCAA please. Thanks.
Since 9/11 FCS has adopted a regional play to keep teams from flying as much as possible that is why they quit seeding all 16 slots - this also saves money for them and the teams participating - If ASU were to get a top 4 seed - seems likely that SCST would go there - no questions on the home team as the 4 seeds get to play at home - same with Elon - but if ASU were an at large it still seems likely that you would face ASU in round one and they will certainly outbid SCSt as the committee wants to see ASU at home for the playoffs - if Elon is an at large and SCSt were paired with them then I believe SCSt would outbid them.

[Pard4Life]

It's interesting that everywhere it seems that Holy Cross has the inside track on rankings and auto-bid scenarios, yet we have the stronger loss.

[Tailbone]

Good point, Butler should be ranked number 1 in the country.



Or, maybe strength of schedule, who you beat and how you win should be considered?

VU has 8 DI wins. Montana has 8 DI wins.
VU has and FBS win. Montana has no FBS win.
VU ranked higher in sagarin.
VU has two top 25 wins (#1 and #5). Montana has two top 25 (no top ten).

Pretty good case can be made that VU, SIU and UR should all be ranked above Montana IMO.

9/5 Western State W 38-0
9/12 @ UC Davis W 17-10
9/19 Portland State W 49-17
9/26 @ Northern Arizona W 41-34 OT
10/3 Open
10/10 Cal Poly (HC) W 35-23
10/17 Eastern Washington W 41-34
10/24 @ Sacramento State W 45-30
10/31 Weber State W 31-10
11/7 @Idaho State W 12-9

When all is said and done, Montana will have NO losses.
VU will have at least 1 D1 Loss.

[crusader11]

It's interesting that everywhere it seems that Holy Cross has the inside track on rankings and auto-bid scenarios, yet we have the stronger loss.

I think it is most likely because HC had more hype going into the season, and was ranked higher in the polls at the beginning of the season. Both teams have had very impressive seasons, but I think Lafayette has been just a tad more impressive.

It all comes down to Saturday at Fitton......

[Pard4Life]

I think it is most likely because HC had more hype going into the season, and was ranked higher in the polls at the beginning of the season. Both teams have had very impressive seasons, but I think Lafayette has been just a tad more impressive.

It all comes down to Saturday at Fitton......

Right. These teams are dead even to me at least. It's going to come down to a mistake. Both team are threat to score, even on their own 1.

[Anovafan]

Nice analysis. Only point I would make is that I would not be surprised to see two Patriot league teams make the field.

[smcwildcat]

although i would love revenge if unh is at uni again again agian ill shoot someone

[Pitz]

This doesn't factor in upcoming games, but if the season ended today: www.nobowls.com

[UNH Fanboi]

When all is said and done, Montana will have NO losses.
VU will have at least 1 D1 Loss.

That's certainly not guaranteed at this point. Montana St. on the road with a possible playoff spot on the line is not a gimme, especially given how close many of Montana's wins have been this year.

[Saluki_man]

Montana and SIU are the top two seeds especially if they win out. The two others are a little cloudy right now. The one that has a chance to get knocked out of the top two is Montana in leiu of 'Nova, but I have hesitiation on that. The CAA always seems to throw a big surprise late in the season, I don't know if that surprise will happen to 'Nova or not.

[Cincy App]

8. South Carolina State (7-1. 4-0 MEAC)

Can someone provide a link to this discussion on regional play for FCS football from the NCAA please. Thanks.

The guidelines for regional play in the FCS playoffs are documented in the Division 1 Football Championship handbook. The complete handbook is attached (hopefully my link works...) Please see page 13 for pairings information. The handbook is for the 2008 season but I'm not aware of any notable changes for '09.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/1_football_handbook.pdf

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

By your predictions the best 1st round matchup would be New Hampshire at UNI

Not again? xrolleyesx

Can we at least wait until the 2nd round?

[Houndawg]

10-1 vs. 11-0

10-1, undefeated in FCS play, beat #2 and #9 on the road.xnodx

[Houndawg]

You can certainly make the case of all three CAA's getting a seed ahead or instead of Montana, but not SIU or the Southern champ. Their conferences aren't as solid from top to bottom as the Big Sky.

xrolleyesx Oh please. Three teams in the top ten this year, three currently in the top 15

[uofmman1122]

10-1, undefeated in FCS play, beat #2 and #9 on the road.xnodxOh, I didn't know UNI was still #2. I guess if you use that logic, Montana has beaten 4 top 25 teams.

[siuham]

Oh, I didn't know UNI was still #2. I guess if you use that logic, Montana has beaten 4 top 25 teams.

If you don't want to use 'that logic,' SIU has beaten #11 and #12 on the road, and Montana has beaten #18 and #19 at home.

[uofmman1122]

If you don't want to use 'that logic,' SIU has beaten #11 and #12 on the road, and Montana has beaten #18 and #19 at home.I wasn't arguing that Montana should be ahead of SIU, I'm just saying that counting a team's highest ranking over it's current ranking is dumb.

Besides, the way the teams across the board have been playing this year, the difference between #5 and #20 could only be a touchdown. The parity in teams this year is astounding.

[Pant8her]

10-1, undefeated in FCS play, beat #2 and #9 on the road.xnodx

BTW,

Is SW Baptist a D1 team ?????xlolx

Therefore, if SIU wins out they will actually have only 9 D1 wins, Impressive yes. Unbeatable, NO.

[HLNgriz]

Any way you slice and dice the playoff field it will be scary good. Just like when JMU ran the field all on the road and ran over the griz (and bad turf) in the NC game.

[MacThor]

A lot of people have App St. and Elon in the same quarter. I know about the geographic pairings, and that conference foes can't meet in the first round. However, I hope they'd try to keep two teams from the same conference out of the same quarter if at all possible. Especially when it's the only two schools representing.....

[Houndawg]

BTW,

Is SW Baptist a D1 team ?????xlolx

Therefore, if SIU wins out they will actually have only 9 D1 wins, Impressive yes. Unbeatable, NO.

Is Sacred Heart a D1 team?????

Read it again son: unbeaten in FCS play.

[Houndawg]

A lot of people have App St. and Elon in the same quarter. I know about the geographic pairings, and that conference foes can't meet in the first round. However, I hope they'd try to keep two teams from the same conference out of the same quarter if at all possible. Especially when it's the only two schools representing.....

Nope.

[Houndawg]

Oh, I didn't know UNI was still #2. I guess if you use that logic, Montana has beaten 4 top 25 teams.

They were #2 when we beat them, Millard. Pay attention, I won't always be here to help you through life.

[siuham]

A lot of people have App St. and Elon in the same quarter. I know about the geographic pairings, and that conference foes can't meet in the first round. However, I hope they'd try to keep two teams from the same conference out of the same quarter if at all possible. Especially when it's the only two schools representing.....

We were in the same quarter as UNI last year. Same for Weber and Montana.

The four were the only from respective conferences.

[kalm]

xrolleyesx Oh please. Three teams in the top ten this year, three currently in the top 15


Yes, and then you have togo to 36 and 42 to find the next 2. The big sky has has five in the top 26.

Toss up

[uofmman1122]

They were #2 when we beat them, Millard. Pay attention, I won't always be here to help you through life.Again, so what? xrolleyesx

They certainly aren't the #2 team now, and that's really all that matters. All that proves is that they were grossly overrated.

I'll give you that they're still number 11, but they've lost to every good team they've played this year. That Iowa loss will only take them so far.

[Pant8her]

Is Sacred Heart a D1 team?????

Read it again son: unbeaten in FCS play.

Pardon me but I am definitely not your son.

Houndawg, please don't be so Pious, or defensive. You are the MVFC champion (congratulations), which doesn't mean squat when the playoffs begin. That is when you start to earn the national championship, btw good luck and I honestly wish SIU well as well as any other MVFC team that is in the playoffs.

You would also have to admit that SIU was lucky for the fortunate turnovers (2 resulting in 14 points for SIU) in the game against UNI. Otherwise, this discussion would be mute, and you would be arguing with some fanatic Panther fan which team is better. The game is on the field and SIU won against UNI.

To those who know football (and I presume most of the readers do) look at the statistical facts about games before jumping to a team being over-rated or not worthy to be in the playoffs. One team can win the game while the other can dominate the field and lose.

If you care I did not say anything against SIU as far as their D1 record was concerned.
All I was doing was pointing out the FACT that SW Baptist is not a D1 school and that you should not it as far as your record.

Your question about St. Francis makes you sound ... well less intelligent than we should give you credit.
To answer your questiontion bluntly Yes, and if you did not know they are in the Northeast conference (not a power house conference obviously).

Best wishes and God Bless

[Houndawg]

Again, so what? xrolleyesx

They certainly aren't the #2 team now, and that's really all that matters. All that proves is that they were grossly overrated.

I'll give you that they're still number 11, but they've lost to every good team they've played this year. That Iowa loss will only take them so far.

xnonox Or that SIU was grossly underrated, which looks to be the case based on this weeks polls.xnodx

[Houndawg]

Pardon me but I am definitely not your son.

Houndawg, please don't be so Pious, or defensive. You are the MVFC champion (congratulations), which doesn't mean squat when the playoffs begin. That is when you start to earn the national championship, btw good luck and I honestly wish SIU well as well as any other MVFC team that is in the playoffs.

You would also have to admit that SIU was lucky for the fortunate turnovers (2 resulting in 14 points for SIU) in the game against UNI. Otherwise, this discussion would be mute, and you would be arguing with some fanatic Panther fan which team is better. The game is on the field and SIU won against UNI.

To those who know football (and I presume most of the readers do) look at the statistical facts about games before jumping to a team being over-rated or not worthy to be in the playoffs. One team can win the game while the other can dominate the field and lose.

If you care I did not say anything against SIU as far as their D1 record was concerned.
All I was doing was pointing out the FACT that SW Baptist is not a D1 school and that you should not it as far as your record.

Your question about St. Francis makes you sound ... well less intelligent than we should give you credit.
To answer your questiontion bluntly Yes, and if you did not know they are in the Northeast conference (not a power house conference obviously).

Best wishes and God Bless

xconfusedx I'm not being pious or defensive, and nobody was counting SW Baptist as anything, just pointing out that we're undefeated in FCS play. I was wrong about St. Francis, on the subject of appearing to be less intelligent than you'd like to give me credit for........well, I know the difference between a discussion being moot, and a discussion being mute.xnodx

Re: the bolded comment, I would have to admit no such thing, I saw the game and luck had nothing to do with beating UNI, amigo, and if you think it did you're ignoring our respective performances against SDSU. Last week SDSU was the darlings of FCS and picked by most everybody here to win the MVC AQ.

BTW, I was asking about Sacred Heart, not St. Francis.

[Pant8her]

xconfusedx I'm not being pious or defensive, and nobody was counting SW Baptist as anything, just pointing out that we're undefeated in FCS play. I was wrong about St. Francis, on the subject of appearing to be less intelligent than you'd like to give me credit for........well, I know the difference between a discussion being moot, and a discussion being mute.xnodx

Re: the bolded comment, I would have to admit no such thing, I saw the game and luck had nothing to do with beating UNI, amigo, and if you think it did you're ignoring our respective performances against SDSU. Last week SDSU was the darlings of FCS and picked by most everybody here to win the MVC AQ.

BTW, I was asking about Sacred Heart, not St. Francis.

Forgive me, but I thought you were referring to the UNI schedule, when you stated Sacred Heart and YES they are still D1 team in the same conference.

As far as the UNI-SIU game, luck being that UNI made mistakes and SIU was essentially handed that ball for One TD, and a turnover on the 7 yd line and 7 plays later SIU scored. If that is not a little luck then what is. The statistics were slightly in favor of UNI for that game.

IMO, these two teams were and are evenly matched.

Peace

[Saluki09]

Long story short, I don't think either of these teams want to face each other early in the playoffs. UNI would be out for revenge, though it would probably be in Carbondale and Farley has yet to figure Lennon out (apparently).

BRING ON THE OVC!!!

[siuham]

Forgive me, but I thought you were referring to the UNI schedule, when you stated Sacred Heart and YES they are still D1 team in the same conference.

As far as the UNI-SIU game, luck being that UNI made mistakes and SIU was essentially handed that ball for One TD, and a turnover on the 7 yd line and 7 plays later SIU scored. If that is not a little luck then what is. The statistics were slightly in favor of UNI for that game.

IMO, these two teams were and are evenly matched.

Peace

Luck stopped your offense on the goal line how many times?

[Pant8her]

SIU fans, I did not say that SIU was a bad team, rather that the ball bounce well for them in that one game. SIU's defense was very good that game (no doubt). Both SIU and UNI have good teams and so far SIU has proven it on the field.

With that said please do not become arrogant (UGLY) like many of the UNI fans were earlier this season.

FCS football is the best thing out there and having a playoff system makes it great.

Don't Hate just Appreciate, especially the playoffs

Go MOValley

Peace

[Houndawg]

Forgive me, but I thought you were referring to the UNI schedule, when you stated Sacred Heart and YES they are still D1 team in the same conference.

As far as the UNI-SIU game, luck being that UNI made mistakes and SIU was essentially handed that ball for One TD, and a turnover on the 7 yd line and 7 plays later SIU scored. If that is not a little luck then what is. The statistics were slightly in favor of UNI for that game.

IMO, these two teams were and are evenly matched.

Peace

It wasn't luck you made mistakes, bro, you were pressured in to them.

Stuffing a smash mouth team twice on 4th down, holding them to 2/10 on 3rd down, and no rushing TDs, is not luck. Don't be like some Bison fans.xpeacex

[Khan4Cats]

It wasn't luck you made mistakes, bro, you were pressured in to them.

Yep, it was all your pressure that caused a true freshman punt returner to wave all of his teammates away from a bouncing ball and then suddenly reach for it. Giving you guys possession inside our 10. Rrrright.....

It was pressure that caused us to run some damn gimmick play in the red-zone using a wide receiver to try some option-pass play and throw it back across the middle of the field when a HS QB would have known to chuck it away. Rrrright....

Yes, you stuffed us on the goalline a couple of times, and you did cause the pressure that caused the Grace interception/pick 6.

But please don't act like you came in and dominated. The game was nip and tuck until mid-way through the 4th and UNI fans can look at the fact that we basically handed you 14 points (1 unforced, 1 forced AFTER we had to go semi-desperate) and shot ourselves in the foot costing us at least a FG with the red zone pick. 17 point swing in a game that ended up only being a 7 point loss is what we are looking at.


Don't be like some Bison fans.xpeacex

Same to you.

[Native]

Forgive me, but I thought you were referring to the UNI schedule, when you stated Sacred Heart and YES they are still D1 team in the same conference.

As far as the UNI-SIU game, luck being that UNI made mistakes and SIU was essentially handed that ball for One TD, and a turnover on the 7 yd line and 7 plays later SIU scored. If that is not a little luck then what is. The statistics were slightly in favor of UNI for that game.

IMO, these two teams were and are evenly matched.

Peace

But no top 25 wins for the Panthers.

[Chi Panther]

But no top 25 wins for the Panthers.

Please list the teams at 8-3 that should be in over UNI, IF UNI is lucky enough to be 8-3.
Thanks.

UNI has led at half in all 3 losses. We just have a turnover happy QB right now....maybe he will figure it out.

[Native]

Please list the teams at 8-3 that should be in over UNI, IF UNI is lucky enough to be 8-3.
Thanks.

UNI has led at half in all 3 losses. We just have a turnover happy QB right now....maybe he will figure it out.

All irrelevant without a top 25 win.

However, UNI is in my playoff prognostications, it just irritates the crap out of me that they have no big wins to justify the ranking.xpeacex

[Chi Panther]

All irrelevant without a top 25 win.

However, UNI is in my playoff prognostications, it just irritates the crap out of me that they have no big wins to justify the ranking.xpeacex

Just give it some time....there are some top 16 wins on the horizon...xthumbsupx

I hate to knock SDSU...but they are lacking athletes. I give them all the credit in the world, they won...but that was a BAD loss for UNI. I'd love a 2nd round rematch!!!

[Green and Yellow]

Don't be like some Bison fans.xpeacex

What is that supposed to mean? In my humble opinion we have been good sports and cheered for the MV after we realized that we were having one of the worst seasons in our history. We have a proud football tradition yes, (8 DII championships) but the last two years we have eaten our share of humble pie.

Represent the Valley well: SIU, SDSU, and UNI.

[Green and Yellow]

What is that supposed to mean? In my humble opinion we have been good sports and cheered for the MV after we realized that we were having one of the worst seasons in our history. We have a proud football tradition yes, (8 DII championships) but the last two years we have eaten our share of humble pie.

Represent the Valley well: SIU, SDSU, and UNI.

Oh and I almost forgot anything LakesBison says is to be ignored. He does not represent the sensible majority of Bison fans.

[Ronin]

10-1 vs. 11-0

Still I would put SIU ahead of Montana. SOS should count for something.

[Ronin]

Yep, it was all your pressure that caused a true freshman punt returner to wave all of his teammates away from a bouncing ball and then suddenly reach for it. Giving you guys possession inside our 10. Rrrright.....

It was pressure that caused us to run some damn gimmick play in the red-zone using a wide receiver to try some option-pass play and throw it back across the middle of the field when a HS QB would have known to chuck it away. Rrrright....

Yes, you stuffed us on the goalline a couple of times, and you did cause the pressure that caused the Grace interception/pick 6.

But please don't act like you came in and dominated. The game was nip and tuck until mid-way through the 4th and UNI fans can look at the fact that we basically handed you 14 points (1 unforced, 1 forced AFTER we had to go semi-desperate) and shot ourselves in the foot costing us at least a FG with the red zone pick. 17 point swing in a game that ended up only being a 7 point loss is what we are looking at.



Same to you.

I was at the game and pretty much saw it the same way. Like any game you lose the turnover statistic and it's very difficult to win. I am already looking forward to next year.

[Khan4Cats]

I was at the game and pretty much saw it the same way. Like any game you lose the turnover statistic and it's very difficult to win. I am already looking forward to next year.

I'll take a rematch THIS year.xthumbsupx

[EKUSteve]

Tenn St lost again last week and now has 3 conference losses. If the OVC AB goes to a three conference lost team, I would be surprised. Tenn Tech has only two losses at the moment. They have Jax St this week. EIU has UT Martin. EKU is out of conference again against W. Carolina. I think the only way EIU does not win the AB is if they they lose this week to UT Martin. I don't see them losing to Tenn St next Thursday (ESPNU). Even if they lose one, EKU is going to have to beat Jax St in AL on the 21st. Tenn Tech loses the tiebreaker to both EKU and EIU as both have beating them.

[mlbowl]

Still I would put SIU ahead of Montana. SOS should count for something.

I'm sure you would...How ironic...the one team that really boost SIU's SoS was a Lxrolleyesx


at Marshall
vs. Southwest Baptist
vs. North Dakota State
at Western Illinois
Illinois State (Homecoming)
at Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
Indiana State
South Dakota State

[KUlawJack]

Just give it some time....there are some top 16 wins on the horizon...xthumbsupx

I hate to knock SDSU...but they are lacking athletes. I give them all the credit in the world, they won...but that was a BAD loss for UNI. I'd love a 2nd round rematch!!!

I take it you mean bad loss as you played poorly? Not bad loss as losing to the Jacks is somehow a "bad loss"? I guess what we lack in athletes we make up for in execution.

[blukeys]

Oh and I almost forgot anything LakesBison says is to be ignored. He does not represent the sensible majority of Bison fans.

Most of us have already figured LakesBison out and do not consider that poster representative of anyone. That being said it never hurts to repeat an important message as there are new people coming all the time.

[superman7515]

Luck stopped your offense on the goal line how many times?

4 times. I tell ya, that Rocco Luck is a hell of a DT. xsmiley_wixoopsx

[Saluki09]

I'm sure you would...How ironic...the one team that really boost SIU's SoS was a Lxrolleyesx


at Marshall
vs. Southwest Baptist
vs. North Dakota State
at Western Illinois
Illinois State (Homecoming)
at Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
Indiana State
South Dakota State

It was @ South Dakota State btw, and @UNI and @SDSU is harder than anything you have had to play. And before you even think Cal Poly, do realize that SDSU was @Cal Poly, and you played Cal Poly at home. Also of note, SDSU lost their first string quarterback in the second quarter and had to put out a cold freshmen that threw 2 interceptions and fumbled the ball in the endzone to give Poly the go ahead TD.

[mlbowl]

It was @ South Dakota State btw, and @UNI and @SDSU is harder than anything you have had to play. And before you even think Cal Poly, do realize that SDSU was @Cal Poly, and you played Cal Poly at home. Also of note, SDSU lost their first string quarterback in the second quarter and had to put out a cold freshmen that threw 2 interceptions and fumbled the ball in the endzone to give Poly the go ahead TD.

First of all, I couldn't care less who was home or away...I simply wanted to post your opponents.

Second...If you're not going to preface your OPINION with some sort of disclaimer then you might want to include a few emoticons :p:Dxlolx

Third...If SIU is rewarded with the #1 seed...no worries, the Big Sky Conference would be more than happy to send Eastern Washington back to Carbondalexpeacex

[GannonFan]

It's all about homefield in the semis, which is a big deal. Well, it should be. xbawlingx

If I were on the committee, I could not put a 10-1 SIU below a 10-1 'Nova considering when and to whom their losses came.

I haven't read the whole thread, but homefield in the semis means very little. A road team has won at least one game in the semis every year for at least the past decade, and last year both road teams won. Homefield advantage gets less and less important as the playoffs go on and the quality of the teams remaining rises. What happens on the field is far more important than who's stands they are playing in front of. xthumbsupx

[Saluki09]

First of all, I couldn't care less who was home or away...I simply wanted to post your opponents.

Second...If you're not going to preface your OPINION with some sort of disclaimer then you might want to include a few emoticons :p:Dxlolx

Third...If SIU is rewarded with the #1 seed...no worries, the Big Sky Conference would be more than happy to send Eastern Washington back to Carbondalexpeacex

Assuming Eastern Washington even makes the playoffs. Southern Utah has won convincingly in all their home games this year.

And fine, if you don't want my opinion then I'll use numbers. Your claim was the only thing improving our SOS was a loss. We are currently ranked HIGHER than the team we lost to.

Sagarin

#61 SIU
#73 Marshall
(#80 Montana)
#82 UNI
#86 SDSU

Montana's top 3 teams were

#103 EWU
#109 NAU
#122 MSU

[mlbowl]

Assuming Eastern Washington even makes the playoffs. Southern Utah has won convincingly in all their home games this year.

And fine, if you don't want my opinion then I'll use numbers. Your claim was the only thing improving our SOS was a loss. We are currently ranked HIGHER than the team we lost to.

Sagarin

#61 SIU
#73 Marshall
(#80 Montana)
#82 UNI
#86 SDSU

Montana's top 3 teams were

#103 EWU
#109 NAU
#122 MSU

If you're going to use Sagarin, so will I...

BSC > MVFC

also, two of our three ooc games were from the Great West...

Great West > BSC which is > MVFC


There...I'm a mathemagician too!

[WrenFGun]

I lol'd at mathemagician a little.

[iceman4221]

The guidelines for regional play in the FCS playoffs are documented in the Division 1 Football Championship handbook. The complete handbook is attached (hopefully my link works...) Please see page 13 for pairings information. The handbook is for the 2008 season but I'm not aware of any notable changes for '09.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/1_football_handbook.pdf

Thanks Cincy App... xthumbsupx

[Saluki09]

If you're going to use Sagarin, so will I...

BSC > MVFC

also, two of our three ooc games were from the Great West...

Great West > BSC which is > MVFC


There...I'm a mathemagician too!

You are changing your argument. You initially said "the one team that really boost SIU's SoS was a L." And that is obviously not true.

Edit : Besides, to address your recent point, the BSC and GWFC SoS's are just as inflated (if not moreso) because of FBS competition.

The Big Sky has 9 teams and played 11 FBS schools.
GWFC has 5 teams and played 7 FBS schools
MVFC has 9 teams and played 8 FBS schools (though after SDSU plays Minnesota it will be 9).

No one won any of those games against FBS, so if anything, the MVFC is benefiting the LEAST from SOS boosts from OOC losses.

[MacThor]

Interesting that everyone is naming Villanova as the CAA autobid, when the only CAA team that truly controls its AQ destiny is UNH.

[GannonFan]

Interesting that everyone is naming Villanova as the CAA autobid, when the only CAA team that truly controls its AQ destiny is UNH.


Kinda matters little. Even if UNH got the autobid, nova is likely to have a better chance of getting the seed from the committee. How the conference breaks a tie when teams are tied for the autobid has no bearing on how the committee views tied teams.

[Dukie95]

nm GF said it

[MacThor]

Kinda matters little. Even if UNH got the autobid, nova is likely to have a better chance of getting the seed from the committee. How the conference breaks a tie when teams are tied for the autobid has no bearing on how the committee views tied teams.

I wasn't talking about the seed, I was talking about the AQ.

[mlbowl]

You are changing your argument. You initially said "the one team that really boost SIU's SoS was a L." And that is obviously not true.

Nope...The original argument was that SIU deserved a seed over undefeated Montana due to SoS. My point was...and still is...that the difference in SoS is due to SIU playing FBS Marshall...and the other part was that you lost to that team ....uh...is that not what happenedxconfusedx


Edit : Besides, to address your recent point, the BSC and GWFC SoS's are just as inflated (if not moreso) because of FBS competition.




Completely agree!