Week #11 USA Today Sagarin Ratings

[Keenan]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

Original Ratings modified for FCS

#1 Villanova NC
#2 Richmond NC
#3 William & Mary NC
#4 Southern Illinois +1
#5 Montana -1
#6 Northern Iowa +1
#7 South Dakota State -1
#8 New Hampshire NC
#9 Jacksonville State NC
#10 Eastern Washington +1
#11 Elon -1
#12 Northern Arizona +1
#13 South Carolina State -1
#14 Weber State +3
#15 Massachusetts +1
#16 Delaware -2
#17 James Madison +2
#18 Eastern Illinois +3
#19 Montana State +4
#20 Stephen F. Austin -2
#21 Appalachian State +1
#22 Liberty +2
#23 Southern Utah -8
#24 UC Davis +3
#25 McNeese State NC
#26 Cal Poly-SLO -6
#27 Texas State +5
#28 Pennsylvania NC
#29 Illinois State +5
#30 Lafayette +3
#31 North Dakota -2
#32 SE Louisiana +9
#33 Florida A&M -3
#34 Maine -8
#35 Missouri State +3
#36 Central Arkansas -5
#37 Holy Cross -1
#38 South Dakota +11
#39 Prairie View A&M -4
#40 Hofstra -3
#41 Youngstown State -2
#42 Harvard +4
#43 Sacramento State +1
#44 Eastern Kentucky +3
#45 Colgate +3
#46 Brown +6 +++Not in Top 50 last week+++
#47 North Dakota State +++Not in Top 50 last week+++
#48 Stony Brook +2
#49 Tennessee Tech +++Not in Top 50 last week+++
#50 Furman +++Not in Top 50 last week+++

Dropped Out
#52 Georgia Southern -9
#53 Grambling -8
#55 Central Connecticut State -15
#59 Albany -17

[HoyaMetanoia]

#2 Richmond Vs. #115 Georgetown this week. Gonna be a good'un.

[igo4uni]

UNI at #6!!

Wow, I don't know what to say.

[appfan2008]

asu #21? ok

[ToTheLeft]

asu #21? ok

Who have you beaten? Really, honestly, having Armanti Edwards isn't a free ticket to the playoffs and the top 10 in everything. Please beat someone, then cry about rankings. If this were Wofford with the same resume as App, they wouldn't make the playoffs and no one would be talking about them.

[uofmman1122]

Who have you beaten? Really, honestly, having Armanti Edwards isn't a free ticket to the playoffs and the top 10 in everything. Please beat someone, then cry about rankings. If this were Wofford with the same resume as App, they wouldn't make the playoffs and no one would be talking about them.I have App ranked 7 in my poll. I think they're really that good.

However, you have a point. They haven't beaten anyone close to the top 25, and lost to the only top 25 team they've played.

I just hope ASU goes in and beats Elon so they can validate my ranking. I honestly don't see Elon winning that game.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

asu #21? ok

SoCon is the 6th ranked FCS conference in the Sagarin rating. Its actually closer to being behind the #7 OVC than it is to #5 Southland.

Pretty shocking.

[uofmman1122]

SoCon is the 6th ranked FCS conference in the Sagarin rating. Its actually closer to being behind the #7 OVC than it is to #5 Southland.

Pretty shocking.I think the Socon is pulling what many (even though I'd disagree xrolleyesx) would call "Big Sky Conference Syndrome" this year. ASU and Elon are really good teams, but everyone else in the Socon seems to be way down this year.

[Horseshoe App]

Who have you beaten? Really, honestly, having Armanti Edwards isn't a free ticket to the playoffs and the top 10 in everything. Please beat someone, then cry about rankings. If this were Wofford with the same resume as App, they wouldn't make the playoffs and no one would be talking about them.

Well, when we go to the playoffs and show you what type of team we are, we will be glad to let Liberty come along as our bellhopsxsmiley_wix. Honestly though, with our schedule, we expect to play quite a few ranked teams. Teams that use to fit that bill(Furman, GSU and Wofford) just are not doing it this year. Two of these teams are typically right in the mix of it. Your slam of our strength of schedule is unjust.
With Liberty's conference, you really stand no chance of having a top tear schedule. Your conference is just too weak. For you to have a tough schedule, your out of conference slate would have to be brutal. From what I have seen, it isn't.
You are throwing rocks when you live in a glass house. Enjoy your nice record and enjoy watching the playoffs from home.

[ToTheLeft]

Well, when we go to the playoffs and show you what type of team we are, we will be glad to let Liberty come along as our bellhopsxsmiley_wix. Honestly though, with our schedule, we expect to play quite a few ranked teams. Teams that use to fit that bill(Furman, GSU and Wofford) just are not doing it this year. Two of these teams are typically right in the mix of it. Your slam of our strength of schedule is unjust.
With Liberty's conference, you really stand no chance of having a top tear schedule. Your conference is just too weak. For you to have a tough schedule, your out of conference slate would have to be brutal. From what I have seen, it isn't.
You are throwing rocks when you live in a glass house. Enjoy your nice record and enjoy watching the playoffs from home.

I'll change my avatar to a McNeese St. avatar and say it again, if you like. Just because I'm an LU fan doesn't mean I can't be right about ASU's situation. Where in my post did I say "LU is better than App and here's why". Just being honest about App, which is something a lot more App homers need to be. xthumbsupx

[Horseshoe App]

I'll change my avatar to a McNeese St. avatar and say it again, if you like. Just because I'm an LU fan doesn't mean I can't be right about ASU's situation. Where in my post did I say "LU is better than App and here's why". Just being honest about App, which is something a lot more App homers need to be. xthumbsupx

I thought I was very honest. Our schedule is usually one of the tougher schedules. We cannot help that Wofford is a walking wounded team and GSU and Furman are having a bad year. I also thought I was being pretty honest about Liberty. Anyway, I guess we can agree to disagreexthumbsupx

[Keenan]

Well, when we go to the playoffs and show you what type of team we are, we will be glad to let Liberty come along as our bellhopsxsmiley_wix. Honestly though, with our schedule, we expect to play quite a few ranked teams. Teams that use to fit that bill(Furman, GSU and Wofford) just are not doing it this year. Two of these teams are typically right in the mix of it. Your slam of our strength of schedule is unjust.
With Liberty's conference, you really stand no chance of having a top tear schedule. Your conference is just too weak. For you to have a tough schedule, your out of conference slate would have to be brutal. From what I have seen, it isn't.
You are throwing rocks when you live in a glass house. Enjoy your nice record and enjoy watching the playoffs from home.

We HAVE beaten a Top 25 (@ Lafayette) and App St. has what? Seriously, if Elon beats you guys, I think the SoCon sends one team to the playoffs. Four teams from the CAA are locked in. Three teams from the MVFC are locked in. A lot of teams from Big Sky and Southland are looking good. I'm not saying Liberty should be in over App St., but you guys are only one spot ahead of us in the Sagarin ratings. A lot of football to be played the next two weeks! Good luck! xbeerchugx

[ToTheLeft]

I thought I was very honest. Our schedule is usually one of the tougher schedules. We cannot help that Wofford is a walking wounded team and GSU and Furman are having a bad year. I also thought I was being pretty honest about Liberty. Anyway, I guess we can agree to disagreexthumbsupx

I never said you were wrong about Liberty. You're right about Liberty, except maybe for the "sitting at home for the playoffs" comment. We'll see about that, there's a lot of football left. Liberty can't help our conference, either. It's where we are, and no one will schedule us OOC. At least not a respectable home-and-home contract.

The point is, App St. hasn't done anything to be in the top 10, yet everyone loves the AE show and votes them higher than they belong. The computers see the facts, they haven't beaten anyone...

I don't think we disagree on much, I just think App fans like to smack on LU for some reason. Hopefully this year or next we get a chance in the playoffs to get some REAL bragging rights, not just "I watched LU and don't think they're good" or "LU only beats DII schools."

[phoenix3]

I'll change my avatar to a McNeese St. avatar and say it again, if you like. Just because I'm an LU fan doesn't mean I can't be right about ASU's situation. Where in my post did I say "LU is better than App and here's why". Just being honest about App, which is something a lot more App homers need to be. xthumbsupx

Ok. Here's one from a poster that couldn't be any less of an App homer: If App is 21 then Liberty is 52. You may say that the Sagarins take out bias. Humans still feed in the info and make the formulas.

Wow, I really hope LU makes it to the playoffs this year & gets to play App or Elon!

[ToTheLeft]

Ok. Here's one from a poster that couldn't be any less of an App homer: If App is 21 then Liberty is 52. You may say that the Sagarins take out bias. Humans still feed in the info and make the formulas.

Wow, I really hope LU makes it to the playoffs this year & gets to play App or Elon!

I NEVER said LU is better than App. However, I don't expect any different from an Elon fan, some of the most clueless out there. Just make sure to read next time.

[phoenix3]

Great, I always expect personal attacks from the likes of LU fans. More mouth than substance.

[ToTheLeft]

Great, I always expect personal attacks from the likes of LU fans. More mouth than substance.

What happened the last time our "substance" met yours on the field?

Oh that's right. 26-3. Bye bye now. xrulesx

[phoenix3]

Old news. Please, don't lose again. You may not have a chance as it is. Have you played Presby yet?

[ToTheLeft]

Old news. Please, don't lose again. You may not have a chance as it is. Have you played Presby yet?

Sorry to bring up such a sore spot.

And yeah, we did. Beat them by 40. How have you guys done against App this year? I think Elon is solid, have them higher than most in my poll. However, I know you're not much better than the Mets when it comes to closing the season. Funny that an Elon fan talks about substance, and chirps about playoff chances. You're no better than LU, and I can say that with confidence. Beat someone, then talk.

[phoenix3]

Just looked at your last two games. Gardner Webb and Stony Brook. Either one of them may take you to the shed, so it may be moot.

[Horseshoe App]

We HAVE beaten a Top 25 (@ Lafayette) and App St. has what? Seriously, if Elon beats you guys, I think the SoCon sends one team to the playoffs. Four teams from the CAA are locked in. Three teams from the MVFC are locked in. A lot of teams from Big Sky and Southland are looking good. I'm not saying Liberty should be in over App St., but you guys are only one spot ahead of us in the Sagarin ratings. A lot of football to be played the next two weeks! Good luck! xbeerchugx

Not a farts chance in a whirlwind that will happen. If we lose to Elon and beat WCU, we are in. As "to the left" has said, people love Armanti and ASU. We got something that alot of other teams do not have. We have history on our side. People want to see ASU in the playoffs. Reputation and our recent past will get us in.

[ToTheLeft]

Not a farts chance in a whirlwind that will happen. If we lose to Elon and beat WCU, we are in. As "to the left" has said, people love Armanti and ASU. We got something that alot of other teams do not have. We have history on our side. People want to see ASU in the playoffs. Reputation and our recent past will get us in.

Which is entirely fair and smells not of corruption. xthumbsupx

[ToTheLeft]

Who have you beaten? Really, honestly, having Armanti Edwards isn't a free ticket to the playoffs and the top 10 in everything. Please beat someone, then cry about rankings. If this were Wofford with the same resume as App, they wouldn't make the playoffs and no one would be talking about them.

Thanks for the red chiclet for this post, CharlestonAppFan. Glad to see I strike a nerve with the most overrated team in FCS.

[phoenix3]

NCCU, W. Virginia Weslyan, Charleston Southern, Presby, VMI, a down JMU...

[ToTheLeft]

NCCU, W. Virginia Weslyan, Charleston Southern, Presby, VMI, a down JMU...

"a down JMU" is still right around the same ballpark as App in EVERY computer ranking, since beating LU and Delaware are both wins better than anything App or Elon have.

And thanks for not mentioning potential conference champ and top 30 team Lafayette, it's fun to selectively ignore facts! And West Virginia, who we only lost to by 13 points.

[phoenix3]

"a down JMU" is still right around the same ballpark as App in EVERY computer ranking, since beating LU and Delaware are both wins better than anything App or Elon have.

And thanks for not mentioning potential conference champ and top 30 team Lafayette, it's fun to selectively ignore facts! And West Virginia, who we only lost to by 13 points.

xbowx

[ToTheLeft]

xbowx

Davidson? Presby? Blown out by Wake? Citadel and a "down" Wofford and Furples? C'mon now, get real.

[phoenix3]

Enough reality for the evening. Have to make it to the office tommorrow. We can pick it up again tommorrow if you like. In the meantime, here's hoping we meet later this year. Until then, good luck with GW & Stony Brook.

[ToTheLeft]

Fair enough. xpeacex Beat App for me.

[kalm]

Not a farts chance in a whirlwind that will happen. If we lose to Elon and beat WCU, we are in. As "to the left" has said, people love Armanti and ASU. We got something that alot of other teams do not have. We have history on our side. People want to see ASU in the playoffs. Reputation and our recent past will get us in.

Now love and history are part of the selection criteria?xsmiley_wix

[kalm]

5 Big sky teams in the top 25

4 Southland teams in the top 32

3 Southern Conference teams in the top 48

No wonder ASU and Elon fans are so fiesty.

:D

[ToTheLeft]

5 Big sky teams in the top 25

4 Southland teams in the top 32

3 Southern Conference teams in the top 48

No wonder ASU and Elon fans are so fiesty.

:D

Especially when there are 2 Big South teams in the top 48. :)

[Rekdiver]

Top 25 aint gonna get you anything. YOu better be in the top ten, to hell with the "S" ratings. Elon and App will get in. A loss by either to each other at this point doesnt drop the out of the top 10. You folks are just hoping you don't get ASU coming to you home 1st round.

elon ought to be looking forward to this game. Its their chance to put away some deamons for the past couple of years.

[Native]

...Honestly though, with our schedule, we expect to play quite a few ranked teams. Teams that use to fit that bill (Furman, GSU and Wofford) just are not doing it this year. Two of these teams are typically right in the mix of it. Your slam of our strength of schedule is unjust.
...

Kudos for attempting to play a tough schedule. In other years, a slam of your strength of schedule might be unjust, but strength of schedule is based on what you actually play, not on what you want play.

THIS YEAR, the criticism of App State's strength of schedule is very much on target. Not a single quality win and a loss at home to McNeese.

[kalm]

Top 25 aint gonna get you anything. YOu better be in the top ten, to hell with the "S" ratings. Elon and App will get in. A loss by either to each other at this point doesnt drop the out of the top 10. You folks are just hoping you don't get ASU coming to you home 1st round.

elon ought to be looking forward to this game. Its their chance to put away some deamons for the past couple of years.

To be honest, I'm just hoping we get in.

But I don't think our team would mind a return trip to the Rock. We scored a couple late to keep it closer in 2007 than any other team you beat in the playoffs, and many of those players are now seniors so I think they would look forward to a chance of getting some revenge.

Plus, they love playing in big venues like Cal, TTU, Colorado, BYU, West Virginia, and Oregon State where they've traveled to the last 4 years. And they really like playing in Washington Grizzly Stadium and having talked to several of them after the 2007 playoff game at Boone, they really enjoyed the Rock but it wasn't as loud or intimidating as WGS.

ASU is a great program and Boone is a very tough place to get a win, but let's not get too carried away here. ;)

[skinny_uncle]

Top 25 aint gonna get you anything. YOu better be in the top ten, to hell with the "S" ratings. Elon and App will get in. A loss by either to each other at this point doesnt drop the out of the top 10. You folks are just hoping you don't get ASU coming to you home 1st round.

elon ought to be looking forward to this game. Its their chance to put away some deamons for the past couple of years.
I would love to see Appy come to Carbondale. We owe you one.
:D

[theasushow]

I would love to see Appy come to Carbondale. We owe you one.
:D

Lafayette, SIU,Furman, Northern Iowa, Coastal Carolina, Montana State, Youngstown State, UMass, Eastern Washington, and Delaware all "owe us one". JMU and Richmond have already got their payback.

[Tod]

I would love to see Appy come to Carbondale. We owe you one.
:D

I would LOVE to see that game! xeekxxnodxxnodx

[SoCalAg]

Go Aggies....top-25 baby......even though we have no business being there....gotta love Jeff's SOS component

[bigchocolate]

Kudos for attempting to play a tough schedule. In other years, a slam of your strength of schedule might be unjust, but strength of schedule is based on what you actually play, not on what you want play.

THIS YEAR, the criticism of App State's strength of schedule is very much on target. Not a single quality win and a loss at home to McNeese.

You have spoken the truth...stated facts. The fact that is most important when ranking APP State is they are undefeated with AE starting in 2009. When you judge or compare APP to anyone in FCS it must be with AE in the lineup and an undefeated APP State team is a potential FCS playoff seed. I don't think their defense is typical APP State...their offense is very special. Yes they have FCS Street Cred... their resent history is 2nd to none. The same Street Cred is applicable to the Strength of schedule for the entire SoCon. I 'm not sure what has happen but I see them (SoCon) during the fall 2009 season very top heavy with alot of average to below average teams. The same is true for most Conferences( Exceptions CAA,Southland, etc. conference omissions has no implication) We all know that this year's SoCon from top to bottom isn't what we're accustom to seeing. Their Street Cred as a collective group is inflated. This group appears to be very good at the top...only the Playoffs can answer this question. The top two are a lock so App and Elon will have the opportunity to justify their lofty rankings. xnodx

[OldSouth]

I hope all our competitors believe these ratings. I can't believe we are ranked this high, we have an easy schedule and we are awful. Believe it playoff teams.xsmiley_wix

[CSN-info]

I hope all our competitors believe these ratings. I can't believe we are ranked this high, we have an easy schedule and we are awful. Believe it playoff teams.xsmiley_wix

If anyone believes the sags are correct for FCS then they get what they asked for. Sags is an fb$ ranking.

[Keenan]

If anyone believes the sags are correct for FCS then they get what they asked for. Sags is an fb$ ranking.

Are the Sagarin ratings not a part of the CSN GPI?

[jedmis10]

I'll change my avatar to a McNeese St. avatar and say it again, if you like. Just because I'm an LU fan doesn't mean I can't be right about ASU's situation. Where in my post did I say "LU is better than App and here's why". Just being honest about App, which is something a lot more App homers need to be. xthumbsupx

Fan the flickers.

[ASUG8]

Thanks for the red chiclet for this post, CharlestonAppFan. Glad to see I strike a nerve with the most overrated team in FCS.

TTL - might want to check out the category you're in - this isn't smack.

[ASUG8]

5 Big sky teams in the top 25

4 Southland teams in the top 32

3 Southern Conference teams in the top 48

No wonder ASU and Elon fans are so fiesty.

:D


You guys generally don't fare too well travelling through Boone.xrulesx SoCon's down this year - there are 70 threads on it. Montana has struggled more this season than most in conference play, hence there are fewer Big Fluffy comments. CAA has been lights out this season and deserves several in the playoffs. It's all cyclical.

[OL FU]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

Original Ratings modified for FCS

#50 Furman +++Not in Top 50 last week+++

Dropped Out
#52 Georgia Southern -9
#53 Grambling -8
#55 Central Connecticut State -15
#59 Albany -17

If I understand Sagarin that is one of the problems. You get wallopped by a FBS team but you are ranked higher because you played them. xconfusedx

[uofmman1122]

If I understand Sagarin that is one of the problems. You get wallopped by a FBS team but you are ranked higher because you played them. xconfusedxDude, half the posters on this board feel like it should be the same way. xcoffeex

[OL FU]

Dude, half the posters on this board feel like it should be the same way. xcoffeex

Maybe they work for Sagarinxconfusedx

[UNH Fanboi]

If I understand Sagarin that is one of the problems. You get wallopped by a FBS team but you are ranked higher because you played them. xconfusedx

That's not how it works. Furman moved up because they lost fewer points to their raw score than a couple of teams ahead of them. Losing by 30 to an FBS does not gain you any points, but it may cost you less than losing to a FCS.

[Walkon79]

Lafayette, SIU,Furman, Northern Iowa, Coastal Carolina, Montana State, Youngstown State, UMass, Eastern Washington, and Delaware all "owe us one". JMU and Richmond have already got their payback.

So come out west. I personally would love to see a home and home regular season game in the near future. The Cats are on the rise.

[OL FU]

That's not how it works. Furman moved up because they lost fewer points to their raw score than a couple of teams ahead of them. Losing by 30 to an FBS does not gain you any points, but it may cost you less than losing to a FCS.

I think I understand. I also understand in movements from week to week most power polls are kinda useless. ( not necesarily over all or for the entire year), I don't understand all the machinations of power polls. I do know that margin of victory is important although I believe discounted somewhat when things get out of hand. On the other hand, our game could have been 100-3. wonder where we would have ended up then. xconfusedx

[UNH Fanboi]

I think I understand. I also understand in movements from week to week most power polls are kinda useless. ( not necesarily over all or for the entire year), I don't understand all the machinations of power polls. I do know that margin of victory is important although I believe discounted somewhat when things get out of hand. On the other hand, our game could have been 100-3. wonder where we would have ended up then. xconfusedx

The wiki on Sagarin explains things pretty well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Sagarin

In short, margin of victory has no effect whatsoever on the "ELO Chess" component of the ranking. Margin of victory does affect the 'Predictor" component, but only up to a certain point. Sagarin doesn't reveal his exact formula, but the model is designed to not reward running up the score, so a 45-3 loss is the same as a 100-3 loss.