WestCoastAggie's Top 10 & Playoff Picks 11/8

[WestCoastAggie]

1. Southern Illinois
2. Villanova
3. Montana
4. Richmond
5. William & Mary
6. Elon
7. Appalachian State
8. New Hampshire
9. South Carolina State
10. Northern Iowa

Notes:

Montana played their way out of a number one rank. You can't play like that against a win-less team and expect to rewarded.

Although New Hampshire beat Villanova, the 'cats lost to the Minutemen and they (UMASS) aren't in strong consideration for the playoffs.

I just couldn't put Holy Cross or McNeese State in MY top 10.

The winner of App. St./Elon will enter the top 5 next week.

And with 2 Weeks Left, MY playoff picks:
SEEDS
1. Southern Illinois MVFC AQ
2. Villanova CAA At-Large
3. Richmond CAA At-Large
4. New Hampshire CAA AQ

Other AQ's
South Carolina State MEAC
Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley
Holy Cross Patriot
Elon Southern
McNeese State Southland

At-Large Locks
Montana Big Sky
William & Mary CAA
South Dakota State MVFC
Appalachian State Southern
Northern Iowa MVFC

Last Teams In
S.F. Austin Southland
Eastern Washington Big Sky

Teams with a Legit Beef
Liberty Big South
Delaware CAA
Florida A&M MEAC

First Round Brackets

Eastern Washington vs. (1) Southern Illinois
South Dakota State vs. Montana

Holy Cross vs. (2) Villanova
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Richmond
Elon Vs. South Carolina State

S.F. Austin vs. (4) New Hampshire
Northern Iowa vs. McNeese State

[mlbowl]

1. Southern Illinois
2. Villanova
3. Montana
4. Richmond
5. William & Mary
6. Elon
7. Appalachian State
8. New Hampshire
9. South Carolina State
10. Northern Iowa

Notes:

Montana played their way out of a number one rank. You can't play like that against a win-less team and expect to rewarded.

Although New Hampshire beat Villanova, the 'cats lost to the Minutemen and they (UMASS) aren't in strong consideration for the playoffs.

I just couldn't put Holy Cross or McNeese State in MY top 10.

The winner of App. St./Elon will enter the top 5 next week.

And with 2 Weeks Left, MY playoff picks:
SEEDS
1. Southern Illinois MVFC AQ
2. Villanova CAA At-Large
3. Richmond CAA At-Large
4. New Hampshire CAA AQ

Other AQ's
South Carolina State MEAC
Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley
Holy Cross Patriot
Elon Southern
McNeese State Southland

At-Large Locks
Montana Big Sky
William & Mary CAA
South Dakota State MVFC
Appalachian State Southern
Northern Iowa MVFC

Last Teams In
S.F. Austin Southland
Eastern Washington Big Sky

Teams with a Legit Beef
Liberty Big South
Delaware CAA
Florida A&M MEAC

First Round Brackets

Eastern Washington vs. (1) Southern Illinois
South Dakota State vs. Montana

Holy Cross vs. (2) Villanova
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Richmond
Elon Vs. South Carolina State

S.F. Austin vs. (4) New Hampshire
Northern Iowa vs. McNeese State

Lay down the crack pipe and slowly walk away if you don't think an undefeated Montana gets a seed;)

[UNHWildCats]

A close loss to UMass isnt great for UNH... but if UNH wins the AQ for the CAA there's no way they are seeded behind a team they beat and a team that lost to a team UNH beat.

[WestCoastAggie]

Lay down the crack pipe and slowly walk away if you don't think an undefeated Montana gets a seed;)

This is a reaction to the massive bomb that was almost dropped on em. You do not expect Montana to be rewarded for beating Idaho St with a last minute field goal?

And the way the CAA is falling into place, this just might happen. xwhistlex

[mlbowl]

This is a reaction to the massive bomb that was almost dropped on em. You do not expect Montana to be rewarded for beating Idaho St with a last minute field goal?

And the way the CAA is falling into place, this just might happen. xwhistlex

It was a conference road game...we won...end of storyxnodx...Where were you last week when we beat Weber St. 31 to 10...you just keep on whistlin'...xwhistlex

[uofmman1122]

This is a reaction to the massive bomb that was almost dropped on em. You do not expect Montana to be rewarded for beating Idaho St with a last minute field goal?

And the way the CAA is falling into place, this just might happen. xwhistlexWell, for one thing, at our level at least, a win is a win.

Also, there's no way in hell undefeated Montana doesn't get a seed, bad ISU game or not.

[fltheadgriz]

You cannot be serious of not giving Montana a seed. Yes, maybe they don't go to #1 dues to the quality of win, but not giving a team a seed when they are undefeated?
Again I would like to see any east coast team go onto that field at ISU and try to play full strength without getting hurt. It was definitely in the minds of the players the horrendeous injury on that field (due to the field) to one of the Griz 2 years ago. You do not play full force on concrete like conditions when you know you are going to get hurt.
One question, if Montana is no longer a seed, if they win out by large numbers against UNC and MSU, do they go up to #1?
If not, then this whole playoff system is a farce for seeding of not having an undefeated team as a seed

[UNH Fanboi]

A close loss to UMass isnt great for UNH... but if UNH wins the AQ for the CAA there's no way they are seeded behind a team they beat and a team that lost to a team UNH beat.

SIU got the MVFC AQ last year by beating UNI, but UNI still got the seed. Even if UNH wins out, I wouldn't count on them getting a seed over Richmond or Villanova.

And I agree with other who say that an undefeated Montana is a lock for a seed. Even if they lose to Montana St., they might still get a seed.

[TexasTerror]

If Montana is undefeated...

They will be a top two seed. GUARANTEED.

[tribe_pride]

Why are your 4th and 8th ranked teams seeded ahead of your 3rd ranked team?

[Appattk]

1. Southern Illinois
2. Villanova
3. Montana
4. Richmond
5. William & Mary
6. Elon
7. Appalachian State
8. New Hampshire
9. South Carolina State
10. Northern Iowa

Notes:

Montana played their way out of a number one rank. You can't play like that against a win-less team and expect to rewarded.

Although New Hampshire beat Villanova, the 'cats lost to the Minutemen and they (UMASS) aren't in strong consideration for the playoffs.

I just couldn't put Holy Cross or McNeese State in MY top 10.

The winner of App. St./Elon will enter the top 5 next week.

And with 2 Weeks Left, MY playoff picks:
SEEDS
1. Southern Illinois MVFC AQ
2. Villanova CAA At-Large
3. Richmond CAA At-Large
4. New Hampshire CAA AQ

Other AQ's
South Carolina State MEAC
Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley
Holy Cross Patriot
Elon Southern
McNeese State Southland

At-Large Locks
Montana Big Sky
William & Mary CAA
South Dakota State MVFC
Appalachian State Southern
Northern Iowa MVFC

Last Teams In
S.F. Austin Southland
Eastern Washington Big Sky

Teams with a Legit Beef
Liberty Big South
Delaware CAA
Florida A&M MEAC

First Round Brackets

Eastern Washington vs. (1) Southern Illinois
South Dakota State vs. Montana

Holy Cross vs. (2) Villanova
William & Mary vs. Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois vs. (3) Richmond
Elon Vs. South Carolina State

S.F. Austin vs. (4) New Hampshire
Northern Iowa vs. McNeese State



#1. The committee won't give the CAA three seeds... They'll be hard pressed to give them 2

and

#2. Even though Montana might have struggled in a few games they still have a "0" in the loss column... They've been #2 most of the year and, if they win out, will most definitely get a seed... If anything because they bring the NCAA $$$$

[JMUNJ08]

WCA did a good job I think. Just give Montana the 3 seed and knock UNH out. That game yesterday was horrible. I know a win is a win but didnt Alabama drop a few weeks ago after a horrible game? ISU is suppose to be the laughing stock of your league and the FCS level according to some. This game will make me think twice on how "strong" Montana is away from the friendly confines of Wash/Griz.

[Tribe4SF]

We'll see what happens to Montana in the GPI this week. The ISU game is going to hurt their computer rankings, and the committee uses a modified version to make discreet decisions for seedings, as well as at-large picks. I still think an undefeated Montana gets a seed, but with their comparative strength of schedule I don't think it's a lock that they'll be a #1 or #2.

[Dane96]

Why does Florida A&M have a legitimate beef. Personally, I dont think they should have ever been in the discussion.

However, with this week's blah performance against a bad NC A&T side...they are just not playoff material. Their one impt. game was against SC State and they got beat down.

Sorry...not a year the Rattlers can claim a beef.

[Proud Griz Man]

Why are your 4th and 8th ranked teams seeded ahead of your 3rd ranked team?

Consider the source.
This Aggie apparently hates Montana, and this 'playoff selection thread' was a way to jab the Griz after a narrow, underwhelming victory at ISU. xcoolx

[WestCoastAggie]

To answer everyone's concern about Montana:

I had to question the validity of Montana 9-0 Record in terms of them earning a Seed. To me, IF the season ended today, Southern Illinois is the #1 seed. They are undefeated in terms of their FCS games too.

This leaves Montana grouped with New Hampshire, Richmond, Villanova & William & Mary. The game against Idaho St. hurt Montana in my eyes. This game should have been a blowout. A win is a win but one thing I learned is that margin of victory is in the Modified GPI that the Committee will look at.

And to Dane96, I group Liberty and FAMU together with their "legit" beef, They will be 9-2 and will have "a weak schedule" according to the computer rankings although LU would have won the Big South and played JMU.

[WestCoastAggie]

Consider the source.
This Aggie apparently hates Montana, and this 'playoff selection thread' was a way to jab the Griz after a narrow, underwhelming victory at ISU. xcoolx

I don't hate Montana. As a matter of fact, I have profound respect for the griz BUT they disappointed me highly with their win over ISU. A true number one seed would have beat ISU by 40+.xthumbsupx

[Dane96]

And to Dane96, I group Liberty and FAMU together with their "legit" beef, They will be 9-2 and will have "a weak schedule" according to the computer rankings although LU would have won the Big South and played JMU.

You realized this has NO LOGICAL SENSE behind it?

So...if a team goes 9-2 with a weak ass schedule-- and loses badly to the two good teams it played, albeit one a play-up game--it gets grouped in with another 9-2 team that won its league?!?!?!

Liberty (not saying they should be in) and FAMU are two different animals that have no relevance to one another but for their record.

For the record, FAMU's weak schedule has nothing to do with computers-- they are just plain weak teams on that schedule.

As for Liberty, which I think could have a decent gripe, how does the fact they "played JMU" come into the equation?

Did they win? Rhetorical.

xrulesxxnonoxxcoffeexxoopsx

[Eight Legger]

It will be interesting to see what happens if UNH and UR both win out and finish 10-1. I agree that it would be easy to make the case that UNH deserves a seed ahead of UR, but I think you could also argue that UR's loss was the to one of the top 2 teams in the nation, while UNH's loss was to (potentially by that point) an unranked team.

Also, because the committee seems to skew things however they want, I suspect they'll find a way to not give UNH the potential of three home games, given that small stadium.

[WestCoastAggie]

You realized this has NO LOGICAL SENSE behind it?

So...if a team goes 9-2 with a weak ass schedule-- and loses badly to the two good teams it played, albeit one a play-up game--it gets grouped in with another 9-2 team that won its league?!?!?!

Liberty (not saying they should be in) and FAMU are two different animals that have no relevance to one another but for their record.

For the record, FAMU's weak schedule has nothing to do with computers-- they are just plain weak teams on that schedule.

As for Liberty, which I think could have a decent gripe, how does the fact they "played JMU" come into the equation?

Did they win? Rhetorical.

xrulesxxnonoxxcoffeexxoopsx

Once again, the Strength of Schedule is a perceived notion used to determine a teams'/conferences' strength. This perceived notion is based on assumptions and results of previous seasons and games.

No one can legitimately say that FAMU and Liberty played a weak schedule.

[WrenFGun]

It will be interesting to see what happens if UNH and UR both win out and finish 10-1. I agree that it would be easy to make the case that UNH deserves a seed ahead of UR, but I think you could also argue that UR's loss was the to one of the top 2 teams in the nation, while UNH's loss was to (potentially by that point) an unranked team.

Also, because the committee seems to skew things however they want, I suspect they'll find a way to not give UNH the potential of three home games, given that small stadium.

...sadly, I agree.

[Appattk]

Once again, the Strength of Schedule is a perceived notion used to determine a teams'/conferences' strength. This perceived notion is based on assumptions and results of previous seasons and games.

No one can legitimately say that FAMU and Liberty played a weak schedule.


Looking at the GPI FAMU is #32, while Liberty is #23 (as of last week).... That doesn't help them get into mix while going up against other bubble teams in the top 25.

#12 EWU
#14 Delaware
#16 SF Austin
#17 Weber St
#20 McNeese St...

[UNHFootballAlum]

WCA did a good job I think. Just give Montana the 3 seed and knock UNH out. That game yesterday was horrible. I know a win is a win but didnt Alabama drop a few weeks ago after a horrible game? ISU is suppose to be the laughing stock of your league and the FCS level according to some. This game will make me think twice on how "strong" Montana is away from the friendly confines of Wash/Griz.

If that is your logic than Montana doesn't deserve a seed either. They played a horrible game against as inferior of opponent as UNH

[smcwildcat]

if UNH wins out hands down seed

[JMUNJ08]

If that is your logic than Montana doesn't deserve a seed either. They played a horrible game against as inferior of opponent as UNH

UNH didn't kick a game winning field goal in the final minute and didn't trail late into the game (correct if I'm wrong). I believe they are good just think UR and Nova are better regardless of the h2h which doesn't always seem to be taken into account come playoff time.

[gbhmt]

UNH didn't kick a game winning field goal in the final minute and didn't trail late into the game (correct if I'm wrong). I believe they are good just think UR and Nova are better regardless of the h2h which doesn't always seem to be taken into account come playoff time.

You're not wrong, but you're comparing two different things here. UNH was outgained and whipped in TOP. Montana won (literally) every single stat category in the game, some by a lot, but kept it close with three turnovers (one at the goal line and the other two in ISU territory) and a monumental penalty tally (some of which were absolute BS). Change a couple stupid plays and that game was pretty much a blowout. But of course, nobody looks into it that deep.

[Dane96]

Once again, the Strength of Schedule is a perceived notion used to determine a teams'/conferences' strength. This perceived notion is based on assumptions and results of previous seasons and games.

No one can legitimately say that FAMU and Liberty played a weak schedule.

One-- I can and will legitimately say FAMU played a weak schedule. It is pretty clear.

Two- Again, you lumping two teams together.

Three- you are basing your results on computer modeling...and as we see in the FBS and, in general, a team can never make a "comeback" if they are pre-rated below on strengths that frankly dont matter in a current season.

Your argument is the EXACT REASONING MODELING DOES NOT WORK!

[UNHWildCats]

You're not wrong, but you're comparing two different things here. UNH was outgained and whipped in TOP. Montana won (literally) every single stat category in the game, some by a lot, but kept it close with three turnovers (one at the goal line and the other two in ISU territory) and a monumental penalty tally (some of which were absolute BS). Change a couple stupid plays and that game was pretty much a blowout. But of course, nobody looks into it that deep.
Yet UNH put up 55 and won by 13.

UNH a lot over the past 6 seasons have been on the lower side of TOP because they strike quick for scores.

[gbhmt]

Yet UNH put up 55 and won by 13.

UNH a lot over the past 6 seasons have been on the lower side of TOP because they strike quick for scores.

Take away one of Montana's turnovers and one of Montana's penalties and the win would have been by 16. And quick scores or not, you were still outgained. They still had some aspects of the game on you. ISU didn't win a single aspect that they were in control of.

[UNHWildCats]

bottom line with linking Liberty and Florida A&M saying both have beefs... You're wrong. Neither has a beef. Neither team has an impressive victory and Liberty is in a conference that until next year isn't guaranteed a playoff spot and Florida A&M had its chance to get an auto bid with its weak schedule and failed.

[UNHWildCats]

Take away one of Montana's turnovers and one of Montana's penalties and the win would have been by 16. And quick scores or not, you were still outgained.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=253370160

**** happens.

[gbhmt]

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=253370160

**** happens.

Yes it does. What separates the best teams from the good teams? The best teams drive 90 yards with 1:20 and no timeouts.

Oh and I can tell by looking at that box score that the three turnovers didn't do you in. Your struggles to convert on fourth down are to blame.

[UNHWildCats]

Yes it does. What separates the best teams from the good teams? The best teams drive 90 yards with 1:20 and no timeouts.
the best teams dont need a 90 yard drive with 1:20 left against an 0-8 team to salvage a win.

[rcny46]

This is a reaction to the massive bomb that was almost dropped on em. You do not expect Montana to be rewarded for beating Idaho St with a last minute field goal?

And the way the CAA is falling into place, this just might happen. xwhistlex

I don't think Montana's close call at ISU will have any effect on the committee's decision on what teams to seed.

[gbhmt]

the best teams dont need a 90 yard drive with 1:20 left against an 0-8 team to salvage a win.

But like you said, **** happens, and I doubt anyone could execute that drive if they weren't among the best.

[UNHWildCats]

But like you said, **** happens, and I doubt anyone could execute that drive if they weren't among the best.
Its Idaho State. 2/3 of the teams in the top 25 could have executed that drive.

[gbhmt]

Its Idaho State. 2/3 of the teams in the top 25 could have executed that drive.

Doubt it. Idaho State or not, the team that played on that last drive was no pushover.

[IaaScribe]

bottom line with linking Liberty and Florida A&M saying both have beefs... You're wrong. Neither has a beef. Neither team has an impressive victory and Liberty is in a conference that until next year isn't guaranteed a playoff spot and Florida A&M had its chance to get an auto bid with its weak schedule and failed.

Winning at 8-1 Lafayette isn't an impressive victory?

[McNeese75]

I just couldn't put Holy Cross or McNeese State in MY top 10.



But you can put South Carolina State in it? xlolx

[WestCoastAggie]

But you can put South Carolina State in it? xlolx

Tell me why they aren't top 10 material?

[iceman4221]

Well, for one thing, at our level at least, a win is a win.

Also, there's no way in hell undefeated Montana doesn't get a seed, bad ISU game or not.

Every good team has that one or two games each season that they play horribly but still manage to win... 9 out of 10 times its against a conference rival, this was that game for Montana, but with their history and their resume, if they remain undefeated they will be seeded... Period! xcoffeex

[Chi Panther]

IF UNI wins out....someone from the Southland is coming to the UNI Dome...

[uofmman1122]

Every good team has that one or two games each season that they play horribly but still manage to win... 9 out of 10 times its against a conference rival, this was that game for Montana, but with their history and their resume, if they remain undefeated they will be seeded... Period! xcoffeexI'm glad we played our worst game in about 5 years to worst team in FCS. Against any other team, we would've been toast. xoopsx

Granted, I'd rather take a loss to 0-10 ISU than Montana State, any day. xcoffeex

I think we looked much more like a really good team that had a lot of bad breaks and played really sloppy than a bad team, despite what other people are insinuating.

[Chi-towngrizzly]

This game will make me think twice on how "strong" Montana is away from the friendly confines of Wash/Griz.

That's what they all say, then w-h-o-o-p-s, that "strong" Montana team is saying the team prayer at mid-field.xwhistlex

[joecooll6]

Hey Montana fans, I'm pretty sure WestCoastAggie isn't on the selection committee so you can all calm down.

[Saluki_man]

Montana will get a seed, unless Montana St completely blows them out of the water when those two teams meet up in a couple of weeks. Montana is a top 2 seed if it wins out (especially convincingly) and even if they lose a close one to Montana St they are a top 4 seed.

I do think however that Montana will probably draw SDSU in the first round and have a possible match with UNI the second.

[McNeese75]

Tell me why they aren't top 10 material?

Nooo, you tell me why they are? What about their lackluster schedule gives us any indication that are a top 10 team?

[McNeese75]

IF UNI wins out....someone from the Southland is coming to the UNI Dome...

Yeah right, Welcome to the HOLE!!! xnodx

[Big Dawg]

Why does Florida A&M have a legitimate beef. Personally, I dont think they should have ever been in the discussion.

However, with this week's blah performance against a bad NC A&T side...they are just not playoff material. Their one impt. game was against SC State and they got beat down.

Sorry...not a year the Rattlers can claim a beef.

We're still winning...

[mlbowl]

We "squeeked" by a few "inferior" teams last year...If I recall correctly...we ended up in the NC gamexwhistlex

[CAAisBOSS]

We "squeeked" by a few "inferior" teams last year...If I recall correctly...we ended up in the NC gamexwhistlex

And got spankedxsmiley_wix

[uofmman1122]

And got spankedxsmiley_wix1. Montana would have owned Bill & Mary last year, but that has little to do with this, but I guess some fans only get to experience success vicariously through other, better teams.

2. We kicked the ***** out of your godly conference's #1 team at their place.

3. We were better than every team except one.

I'll take that over not making the playoffs any day. xcoffeex

[SoCalAg]

Eastern Washington could do some damage in the playoffs.....and like most have said, no way Griz don't get a seed if they go undefeated.

[siuham]

SIU got the MVFC AQ last year by beating UNI, but UNI still got the seed. Even if UNH wins out, I wouldn't count on them getting a seed over Richmond or Villanova.

And I agree with other who say that an undefeated Montana is a lock for a seed. Even if they lose to Montana St., they might still get a seed.

Yup.

Even more parallels.

SIU's lone loss was to NDSU (A mediocre loss last year)
UNI's lone loss was to SIU (A tough, last second loss on the road)

UNH's loss is to UMass (An increasingly mediocre loss)
Nova's loss is to UNH (Good loss)
Richmond's loss is to Nova (good loss)

If Richmond or Nova don't suffer a loss, UNH will in all probability see the same playoff seeding as SIU saw last year. No seed for them while the team they beat getting a seed.

But in reality, most SIU fans realized UNI's loss was a case of the "home team wins it" and not about SIU being a distinctly better team than UNI, so it wasn't really surprising to see them with a seed come playoff time and us not.

We all know how well that worked out. :(

[AggieRX]

As long as they take care of business, an undefeated Griz team should get seeded

[Houndawg]

As long as they take care of business, an undefeated Griz team should get seeded

True, but they don't deserve to be seeded ahead of an SIU team which also has no FCS losses

[89Hen]

Teams with a Legit Beef
Delaware CAA
Hens won't have a legit beef. They very well could end up 6-5. If they're 7-4 with 6 DI wins, they don't deserve to be in. If they somehow win the next two, they will be in. No beef.

[CAAisBOSS]

1. Montana would have owned Bill & Mary last year, but that has little to do with this, but I guess some fans only get to experience success vicariously through other, better teams.

2. We kicked the ***** out of your godly conference's #1 team at their place.

3. We were better than every team except one.

I'll take that over not making the playoffs any day. xcoffeex

hmm... a bit angry? and you did not beat JMU that badly. Superman got hurt. you were beat in every category statistically and you won by 8. thats not kicking the ***** out of someone. xthumbsupx

[JMUNJ08]

1. Montana would have owned Bill & Mary last year, but that has little to do with this, but I guess some fans only get to experience success vicariously through other, better teams.

2. We kicked the ***** out of your godly conference's #1 team at their place.

3. We were better than every team except one.

I'll take that over not making the playoffs any day. xcoffeex

That was our worst game of the year and we still had the ball at the end with a chance to tie. -4 in TO margin will do in any team. Will & Mary was 4th in the south last year (UD) this year. I don't think you would have owned them unless you stayed at home. The top teams are stronger this year and you will have your hands full with anyone outside of the Big Sky/West Region.

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

hmm... a bit angry? and you did not beat JMU that badly. Superman got hurt. you were beat in every category statistically and you won by 8. thats not kicking the ***** out of someone. xthumbsupx

Dudzik came in and played better in that game IMHO. And that is why there are lies, damn lies and statistics. The only stat that really counts is the scoreboard. xpeacex

[Tailbone]

That was our worst game of the year and we still had the ball at the end with a chance to tie. -4 in TO margin will do in any team.

That (ISU) was our worst game of the year and we had the ball at the end with a chance to win, and managed to do so. xwhistlex -3 in TOs might do in any team.


Will & Mary was 4th in the south last year (UD) this year. I don't think you would have owned them unless you stayed at home.

Because......Bill and Mary were so much better than JMU? xconfusedx


The top teams are stronger this year and you will have your hands full with anyone outside of the Big Sky/West Region.

Out here (in the boondocks) we call that ECB. xnonox

[Green26]

The selection committee will look at the UM/ISU game as a win for UM, and will look no further. The committee doesn't go through each and every game and analyze how a team played. While overall strength of schedule is taken into account, especially in close calls, overall records and good wins are much more important than other factors, like whether a win should have been bigger. Every team has a bad day or two or three each season. The important thing is whether the team has won on the bad day.

If UM wins out (and that is not assured with the rival game coming up and on the road), it is a lock for a seed, and probably a top 2 seed.