The CSN Way: Clarity

[CSN-info]

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The CSN Way: Clarity
By Chuck Burton, The CSN Way Columnist

Before this weekend, the playoff race was, to say the least, muddied. No fewer than six CAA teams were still legitimately in the hunt for playoff spots. The Big Sky race, Montana’s to lose, still had one daunting opponent left that could knock the Grizzlies from the Big Sky title. And Appalachian State still had to play Furman - a rivalry with a history of craziness - that could have derailed the Mountaineers’ hopes for a SoCon title and return to the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

Unlike this impressionist picture, however, the FCS playoffs after a weekend of games has looked much clearer. Two big wins brought two familiar faces - Montana and Appalachian State - a big step closer to playoff season. And a rash of upsets gave a new era of at-large teams new life in their playoff aspirations.

For the first time this year, there is clarity in the playoff picture. This week, we go through the games that brought us here and a conference-by-conference analysis of who’s still alive in the playoff hunt.

Read more ... (http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php/2009/11/06/the-csn-way-clarity?blog=5)

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Chuckles Picks Coming Soon!

[aceinthehole]

How can you list at-large candidates such as Lafayette, Liberty, Florida A&M, Colgate, and even Butler, but leave out the possiblity of a 10-1, NEC champ Central Connecticut? xconfusedx

[Franks Tanks]

How can you list at-large candidates such as Lafayette, Liberty, Florida A&M, Colgate, and even Butler, but leave out the possiblity of a 10-1, NEC champ Central Connecticut? xconfusedx

Because he thinks you are annoying

[aceinthehole]

Yeah, maybe so, but facts are facts. CCSU could finish with 10 D-I wins and just one loss to a top-5 team.

If you're are trying to be credible FCS writer and you include a team like Butler and ignore CCSU, you either haven't done your homework or you have an agenda.

[Franks Tanks]

Yeah, maybe so, but facts are facts. CCSU could finish with 10 D-I wins and just one loss to a top-5 team.

If you're are trying to be credible FCS writer and you include a team like Butler and ignore CCSU, you either haven't done your homework or you have an agenda.

You are lucky he didnt have Lehigh getting an at large

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I think it was an editing mistake: look, it's up there now.

[Proud Griz Man]

uhh ..... did he say "a meltdown of near-Biblical proportions" ?


What meltdown is recorded in the Bible ??

[james_lawfirm]

uhh ..... did he say "a meltdown of near-Biblical proportions" ?


What meltdown is recorded in the Bible ??

Well, there's Lot's wife. And, then He!! in general would probably qualify. Not to mention that Biblical proportions are that of a large book. He did not say Biblical records.

[aceinthehole]

I think it was an editing mistake: look, it's up there now.

Looks better now xthumbsupx
---
I still disagree that Lafayette is the last team in, as they would have lost to 2 conference champs (HC and LU).

Here are the best case scenarios for “non-power conference” at-large bids (in alphabetical order). Assuming it comes down to one of these teams for the final spot, who gets it?

Butler (11-0) PFL champs
W: Dayton, Drake, Marist (3 non-D-I win)
L: none

CCSU (10-1) – NEC champ
W: Albany, Columbia, Monmouth
L: William and Mary

Colgate (10-1) – PL runner-up
W: Lafayette, Stony Brook, Monmouth
L: Holy Cross (PL AQ)

Florida A&M (9-2) – MEAC runner up
W: Morgan St., Tennessee St, Norfolk St.
L: Miami and South Carolina St.

Holy Cross: (9-2) – PL runner-up
W: Harvard, Northeastern, Colgate
L: Brown and Lafayette(PL AQ)

Lafayette (9-2) – PL runner-up
W: Harvard, Penn, Colgate
L: Liberty and Holy Cross (PL AQ)

Liberty (9-2) – Big South champ
W: Lafayette, Stony Brook, Gardner-Webb (1 non-D-I win)
L: West Virginia and JMU

[DetroitFlyer]

Looks better now xthumbsupx
---
I still disagree that Lafayette is the last team in, as they would have lost to 2 conference champs (HC and LU).

Here are the best case scenarios for “non-power conference” at-large bids (in alphabetical order). Assuming it comes down to one of these teams for the final spot, who gets it?

Butler (11-0) PFL champs
W: Dayton, Drake, Marist (3 non-D-I win)
L: none

CCSU (10-1) – NEC champ
W: Albany, Columbia, Monmouth
L: William and Mary

Colgate (10-1) – PL runner-up
W: Lafayette, Stony Brook, Monmouth
L: Holy Cross (PL AQ)

Florida A&M (9-2) – MEAC runner up
W: Morgan St., Tennessee St, Norfolk St.
L: Miami and South Carolina St.

Holy Cross: (9-2) – PL runner-up
W: Harvard, Northeastern, Colgate
L: Brown and Lafayette(PL AQ)

Lafayette (9-2) – PL runner-up
W: Harvard, Penn, Colgate
L: Liberty and Holy Cross (PL AQ)

Liberty (9-2) – Big South champ
W: Lafayette, Stony Brook, Gardner-Webb (1 non-D-I win)
L: West Virginia and JMU

How about the potential of Dayton at 10-1 with no FCS losses....:D

[Bogus Megapardus]

I just knew this would happen. Maybe someone should start a thread about whether Liberty U. or Storrs Lite should be in the playoffs.

[EKUSteve]

Quote:
Originally Posted by aceinthehole
How can you list at-large candidates such as Lafayette, Liberty, Florida A&M, Colgate, and even Butler, but leave out the possiblity of a 10-1, NEC champ Central Connecticut?

Because he thinks you are annoying

Thanks. Gave me a good laugh after a strange week at work!

xlolx

[Franks Tanks]

Quote:
Originally Posted by aceinthehole
How can you list at-large candidates such as Lafayette, Liberty, Florida A&M, Colgate, and even Butler, but leave out the possiblity of a 10-1, NEC champ Central Connecticut?

Because he thinks you are annoying

Thanks. Gave me a good laugh after a strange week at work!

xlolx

Glad I could help

Ace is a good guy who is just defending his team ( I would do the same). I also think a 10-1 CCSU deserves serious consideration, but the NEC guys have been pretty tense lately so I thought I would lighten it up.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Hey, the picks are finally out. Better late than never, I guess, even they're without Chuck's usual humor.

[IaaScribe]

Lafayette would not get in ahead of Liberty. Just won't happen.

[Saluki_man]

Not unless I have the MVFC tiebreakers wrong. The winner of the SIU/SDSU game will clinch the AQ.

[Bogus Megapardus]

Lafayette would not get in ahead of Liberty. Just won't happen.


xwhistlex

[IaaScribe]

Unless, of course, Lafayette finishes 9-2 and Liberty is 8-3. Then Lafayette would get in, obviously.

[kalm]

The Patriot League is interesting since there are three teams that are already playoff-eligible: Holy Cross, Lafayette and Colgate. One of these three will almost certainly win the autobid, and the second-placed team looks in exceptional shape for an at-large bid.


Florida A&M looks to be playoff-eligible - as long as they beat one of the last three MEAC teams on their schedule. Should they win out, they look like great candidates for an at-large bid.


And Montana State - who can get to 8-3 and 7 D-I wins if they win out - might have just enough of a resume if they do it since that would mean they’d have beaten Montana to do it.


The Big Sky is a huge X-factor this year in terms of at-large bids. Eastern Washington, who just discovered that they are eligible for the postseason, could get to 7 D-I wins and an 8-3 record if they win their last two games, but they wouldn’t have a quality win to show the committee.

So the second place Patriot League team "looks in exceptional shape", and a 9-2 FAMU from the MEAC would "look like great candidates" for at large bids?

EWU would have wins over MSU, SUU, and NAU. MSU would have wins over Weber State and Montana. Not to mention the schedule strength of a BSC team versus the PFL or MEAC.

If you're opinion is that a 9-2 record from the PFL or MEAC trumps the strength of schedule for a 8-3 BSC team I might disagree but I can live with that.
But you should probably go back and compare the quality wins of HC, Lafayette, the Gate, and FAMU (or Liberty) before citing lack of quality wins for EWU.

Also, if MSU beat Montana wouldn't that also improve the quality of EWU's win against an 8-3 MSU? You think the quality of the Montana win would trump the head to head? Or perhaps EWU and MSU both get bids in that scenario.

[kalm]

And of course the same thing goes for Liberty.

[ToTheLeft]

If MSU doesn't meat Montana, tho, then all you guys have beaten are each other, and so it's hard to tell if you're all decent teams, or just a random pack of average behind dominant Montana...

Wins OOC are the best way to show how you stack up relative to other teams, and no bubble teams in the Big Sky has one of those... and some have losses to Southern Utah... (not that SUU is bad, they're a solid team, but those are games that need to be won)...

[kalm]

If MSU doesn't meat Montana, tho, then all you guys have beaten are each other, and so it's hard to tell if you're all decent teams, or just a random pack of average behind dominant Montana...

Wins OOC are the best way to show how you stack up relative to other teams, and no bubble teams in the Big Sky has one of those... and some have losses to Southern Utah... (not that SUU is bad, they're a solid team, but those are games that need to be won)...

I agree, and as mentioned ad-nauseum, it's difficult to schedule OOC games other than against the GWFC, WAC, Mountain West, and PAC-10. So while we might steal an additional bid from a down GWFC, the very fact the GWFC is down might also hurt our resume compared with other bubble teams.

But history suggest that BSC bubble teams who beat each other up in conference, do quite well in the playoffs as does Montana. Also the BSC is a fully funded scholarship conference, and the GPI is almost always top 5.

Our best OOC wins would potentially be Poly (UM, Weber?), SUU (NAU, EWU?), Davis (UM, SAC?), and South Dakota (MSU, UNC).

How are the quality of the PFL and MEAC OOC wins?

[ToTheLeft]

Patriot beats the Ivies and Big South and bottom level CAA teams (sometimes), MEAC beats no one and they don't belong in the playoffs until they do (except for the auto-bid)

[ToTheLeft]

The history of the Big Sky will help them when it comes to selection time.