Why UC Davis Deserves To Be Ranked

[BlueGoldAg]

This article was written by Conor Tekautz, the sports writer for the Davis Enterprise which is the city of Davis' local newspaper:

Link: http://www.davisenterprise.com/enterprise_sports/


Why UCD football deserves to be ranked

October 28th, 2009

I wrote a story for a Monday online edition of the paper a couple weeks ago but I figure I’ll go into it again here.

The UC Davis football team currently checks in at No. 30 in The Sports Network’s poll and No. 31 in the FCS Coaches Poll. For future reference any time you see two rankings next two a team in this post, the first is TSN and the second is Coaches. I’ll also be using Jeff Sagarin’s rankings from USA Today (also sorted by conference here) because I put stock in his numbers. When I’m referencing the opponent’s a team plays, I’ll be using Sagarin’s ranking and the same goes for a conference. While I don’t think Sagarin is the absolute authority on rankings, I do think it provides a good barometer for the teams.

We’re going to compare the Aggies to a few teams ahead of them in the polls: No. 17/17 Holy Cross, No. 23/24 Liberty, No. 24/25 Colgate, No. 25/25 Prairie View A&M and No. 27/26 Florida A&M......


So there you have it...I think I'll go put on my flame-retardant suit now...xwhistlex

Oops...I got edited and scolded for posting the entire article without having read the rules...so click the link to read the whole article....

[Proud Griz Man]

UC-Davis is good. I respect their program. QB Denham is good. xthumbsupx

[Jacked_Rabbit]

I'd venture to guess that UC Davis is one of the top 25 teams in the nation... So, without any facts to back this claim, I agree!

[Ronbo]

Davis has one of the best if not the best QB to WR combo in FCS.

[4th and What?]

Davis needs to get wins against top programs. Making the argument that Davis should be ranked because they only lost to top programs is flawed, just like UNI should get a playoff spot because they almost beat Iowa.

Davis has a tough game this week traveling to SUU. If Davis can win this, you might see them poke into the polls around 23-25. Then if Davis can beat Cal Poly you will see them legitametly be in the polls in the upper teens or so.

Being a Davis fan I hate seeing so many people whining on these forums about Davis not being ranked in the top 25. They will be if they win important games. Until then, quit whining.

[Kemo]

Their (UC Davis) best wins according to Sagarin was at No. 41 South Dakota...

No offense, but if UC Davis's best win is against a Coyote team that is in it's second year of transition from DII to DIAA, then I can't see any justification that says they "should" be in the top 25. Now I'm not saying they are, or are not a top 25 team, but rather I just don't see enough evidence to really complain about not being in the top 25. It's about quality wins, not quality loses (and if there isn't a lot quality between teams competing for a certain spot, then quantity may win out in some voters minds). Beat Cal Poly and/or even Southern Utah and a much better case could be made in Davis's favor.

[JMUNJ08]

This article was written by Conor Tekautz, the sports writer for the Davis Enterprise which is the city of Davis' local newspaper:

Link: http://www.davisenterprise.com/enterprise_sports/

"Each of these five teams have better records than the Aggies do, but taking a closer look at how tough the schedules are and paints a different picture. Coaches might not put much stock in moral victories but it’s important to look at how a team loses games and who they lose to. I give UCD credit for playing the Boise State, one of the best FBS teams, tough and only trailing by 11 with eight minutes to go while having the ball around midfield. I also give UCD credit for playing Montana tough at home in a game the Aggies could have won. Obviously it would have meant more if UCD won that game, but a 17-10 loss isn’t the same as a 35-0 loss. I think that loss to Montana says more about UCD than the 45-14 win over WS State as well as Holy Cross’ 52-21 win over a 1-6 Sacred Heart team."


So there you have it...I think I'll go put on my flame-retardant suit now...xwhistlex

Schedules of these teams should weigh more on the voting than overall record. Colgate and PV should be around 30 in the rankings. Florida A&M will have trouble making it back after SCST.


However, at 4-3, where's the quality wins? You can take into account a loss differently when it is a heartbreaker (JMU wins over UR on the punt return with 1 second left and Nova on the hail mary with no time remaining last year) but not when you were "close." Those 2 teams had the lead and some fluke plays cost them the game. Otherwise this guys methodology says JMU should have moved up in the rankings after being at the 6 yard line against UR a few weeks back. A loss is a loss. Its been said on other threads that going 0-10 vs the top teams and being close doesn't make you a good team. I applaud them for their tough schedule but wins have to come out before they are ranked (Cal Poly is a good start)xthumbsupx

[SactoHornetFan]

ucdavis has one win against a full D-I squad: Portland State. The rest of their wins are against a D-II squad (Western Oregon), a squad transitioning from D-II (South Dakota and in OT to boot), and another squad in the midst of transition from D-II who decided after this year to head back to D-II (Winston-Salem State). And their fans and beat writer seems to think they should be ranked xwhistlex

Must be some fine weed the Yolo County Farmers have in their pipes...

[BlueGoldAg]

Davis needs to get wins against top programs. Making the argument that Davis should be ranked because they only lost to top programs is flawed, just like UNI should get a playoff spot because they almost beat Iowa.

Davis has a tough game this week traveling to SUU. If Davis can win this, you might see them poke into the polls around 23-25. Then if Davis can beat Cal Poly you will see them legitametly be in the polls in the upper teens or so.

Being a Davis fan I hate seeing so many people whining on these forums about Davis not being ranked in the top 25. They will be if they win important games. Until then, quit whining.

I don't think this article is "whining." I think it makes a fair, comparative analysis about how SOS is not considered a critical factor in the ranking process for many voters whereas the number of wins and past history are weighted much more heavily.

Glad your a fan of the Aggies....xpeacex

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Davis has one of the best if not the best QB to WR combo in FCS.

Well they do now that Aaron Boyce is out for the year. xcoffeex

[SochorField]

I agree. Not enough quality wins to justify it at this time.

I do believe that this team is talented enough to be ranked. If they can beat Southern Utah this week at Cedar City, they should be.

[JMUNJ08]

I don't think this article is "whining." I think it makes a fair, comparative analysis about how SOS is not considered a critical factor in the ranking process for many voters whereas the number of wins and past history are weighted much more heavily.

Glad your a fan of the Aggies....xpeacex

I agree. It happens at the FBS level too. The key there is the media coverage can swing things more quickly and make things nationally known even if it takes a few years. Many voters have history to rely on without extensive national attention to the FCS through the media.

But I would say UCD SOS is aided by those 2 FBS teams and Montana which were all losses. Thats where the article losses focus for me to make a sound arguement.

[WrenFGun]

..yes, if the Aggies can defeat a team well under .500 they should be ranked..wha?

I think it's clear what that we need to start voting the Aggies #1 overall. You know, I was wondering what we were going to do after the Elon trolls left..

[aggiemba]

The Aggies should be #12 with everyone below that bumping down by one spot.

[WrenFGun]

The Aggies should be #12 with everyone below that bumping down by one spot.

xconfusedx #12? I don't see anyone with more quality losses than UCD. They should be #1.

[SumItUp]

Is this a serious thread or is it just being used to hype UC Davis? They appear to have a very talented team, but they need to win games. If and when they beat Southern Utah and Cal Poly they should have a ranking between 21-25. It could possibly be a move into the top 20 if a number of teams do not continue to win.

[MacThor]

Seems like a lot of effort to write an article justifying a ranking in a division that determines its champion in a playoff.

Even a ranking in the 21-25 range isn't going to get them in the field. Not even close.

At the end of the season we can throw the author a bone and rank 'em 22.

[BlueGoldAg]

Schedules of these teams should weigh more on the voting than overall record. Colgate and PV should be around 30 in the rankings. Florida A&M will have trouble making it back after SCST.


However, at 4-3, where's the quality wins? You can take into account a loss differently when it is a heartbreaker (JMU wins over UR on the punt return with 1 second left and Nova on the hail mary with no time remaining last year) but not when you were "close." Those 2 teams had the lead and some fluke plays cost them the game. Otherwise this guys methodology says JMU should have moved up in the rankings after being at the 6 yard line against UR a few weeks back. A loss is a loss. Its been said on other threads that going 0-10 vs the top teams and being close doesn't make you a good team. I applaud them for their tough schedule but wins have to come out before they are ranked (Cal Poly is a good start)xthumbsupx

Well the Aggie loss to Montana doesn't quite fit the "heartbreaker" category you describe in your post, but it was definitely a tough loss and a weird loss as well. The Aggies pretty much controlled the game (TOP Ags 37 to 22 minutes) and out-gained the Griz 405 to 312. Then with 2:31 to go in the 4th, the Aggies drove the ball from their own 33 to the Montana 12 with 57 seconds left. Then just as the Ags were about to run a 4th down and 7 play, the freakin' lights went out. After 20 minutes play was resumed, and the Griz made a fine defensive play and broke up a pass in the end zone to seal the deal.

The Aggies had momentum and the crowd was really into it when the lights went out. The 20 minute delay sucked a lot of energy out of the crowd and broke the momentum. Montana's coach, Bobby Hauck, said he used the time to really think over and review several plays they thought the Ags would try and that they guessed right when the Ags went to their ace WR, Carter, on a crossing route. The delay also allowed a tired Montana defense to get a big breather and regroup while the Aggies offense cooled down and walked around trying to stay loose.

No sour grapes, however. Montana made a couple big plays when they needed to and came from behind and found a way to win like they have a history of doing. But when you consider how differently the voters would apparently look at the Aggies had they beaten the Griz, it demonstrates how a very close loss to a highly ranked team doesn't mean as much to the voters as a bunch of wins over much weaker opponents. That's the point of the article, I believe.

[BlueGoldAg]

Must be some fine weed the Yolo County Farmers have in their pipes...[/B]

Coming from a Hornet fan, all I can say is that we thank you for your continued patronage...much obliged xsmiley_wix

[BlueGoldAg]

..yes, if the Aggies can defeat a team well under .500 they should be ranked..wha?

I think it's clear what that we need to start voting the Aggies #1 overall. You know, I was wondering what we were going to do after the Elon trolls left..

Trolls are we...? xrolleyesx

So a few Aggie fans call attention to the undervalued value of SOS and a Davis beat writer puts together a comparative analysis of a few ranked teams to express his point of view, and now we are considered trolls by your estimation...xeekx

The point is about giving more voting consideration to the quality of both wins and losses and how a team plays against tough competition versus racking up wins against much less challenging competition. This isn't about a bunch of sour grapes, it's about calling attention to a significant ranking criteria that seems to garner very little respect. xthumbsupx

[BlueGoldAg]

Is this a serious thread or is it just being used to hype UC Davis? They appear to have a very talented team, but they need to win games. If and when they beat Southern Utah and Cal Poly they should have a ranking between 21-25. It could possibly be a move into the top 20 if a number of teams do not continue to win.

Hype wasn't even consideration in the intent of this thread, but I expected to get a variety of opinions, after all, this is a discussion forum loaded with passionate fans.

Aggie fans fully understand that we need to win out to have a chance at a playoff bid. The game tomorrow against Southern Utah in Cedar City, which is a tough road trip for anyone, is huge, and the pollsters currently show the Aggies as 6 point underdogs. I think the game will either be a close win or a close loss or the Ags could get beat a bunch more. I don't see the Aggies rolling up the Thunderbirds.

Why? Because I think SUU may be the best team in the Great West at the moment. They have a very tough schedule and they pushed Cal Poly around quite a bit at Poly before they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and missed a PAT to tie the game. At 3-4, they don't get a lot of respect from the FCS scene, and if we lose to them, there will be a lot of "I told you so posts" from AGSers. SUU is a prime example of really good team whose record doesn't reflect their strength.

If we play like we did at Boise State bring home a win, then we will have a monster match-up with Cal Poly the next weekend. It won't be easy, but these kind of games are much more enjoyable than thumping somebody you are expected to thump.

[4th and What?]

I don't think this article is "whining." I think it makes a fair, comparative analysis about how SOS is not considered a critical factor in the ranking process for many voters whereas the number of wins and past history are weighted much more heavily.

Glad your a fan of the Aggies....xpeacex

True enough, may just seem like whining to me when this is the fourth different thread on various forums I have read this week about why Davis should be ranked when in my opinion they have done nothing to prove it yet.

The article isn't exactly a fair comparative analysis either, he pulls every number that puts Davis in a better light. He even pulls halftime scores out ONLY when it makes Davis look good, and fails to mention the one game he is saying is a better win than other teams he lists has was an overtime victory. I just see a lot of bias in his article.

[BlueGoldAg]

True enough, may just seem like whining to me when this is the fourth different thread on various forums I have read this week about why Davis should be ranked when in my opinion they have done nothing to prove it yet.

The article isn't exactly a fair comparative analysis either, he pulls every number that puts Davis in a better light. He even pulls halftime scores out ONLY when it makes Davis look good, and fails to mention the one game he is saying is a better win than other teams he lists has was an overtime victory. I just see a lot of bias in his article.

Oh, come now, we Aggie fans aren't biased....xrolleyesx

[Head Cat]

I doubt from his comments that this writer has seen ANY of the teams he questions being ranked ahead of UC Davis. All he does is compare the fact that this team trailed a poor team at halftime and the like. And he goes hog wild with the Sagarin ratings, which a lot of us don't put much stock in (Sagarin has some faulty methodology in regards ranking non-Division I teams).

Maybe, if he watched some football other than the teams that play UC Davis, he might come away with some respect for some of these other teams. He also had some facts wrong, like Leroy Vann with six TDs. Vann has four punt returns for TDs this season. Vann does have 10 combined returns for TDs in his career. His article showed a real lack of knowledge of how good some of these teams are traditionally, like Colgate, SC State, FAMU, Grambling and Southern.

I saw the Montana game and quitely frankly, UC Davis had every chance to win this game and let it slip from its grasp. But that being said, you have to WIN games to earn respect and the Aggies have never done that with any consistency.

I guarantee you that this writer would enjoy having players like Vann or Curtis Pulley from FAMU, William Ford from SC State, Dominic Randolph of Holy Cross on his team or some of those Prairie View players on his team.

Watch some football, dude.

[BlueGoldAg]

You make some good points Head Cat. And I absolutely agree with your statement about the Aggies not winning with consistency. I do think that their SOS has something to do with that this season particularly.

No excuses though, especially the last couple of years where, quite frankly, we've been much less than impressive. The team seems to have a bipolar personality, and even Aggie fans aren't sure which Aggie team will show up. We're hoping the team that shows up tomorrow against SUU will be the team that showed up at Boise State a couple of weeks ago.

[GoAgs72]

UC Davis needs to beat SUU and Cal Poly, period. That probably still doesn't get them in the playoffs but maybe some consideration for next year.

[BlueGoldAg]

UC Davis needs to beat SUU and Cal Poly, period. That probably still doesn't get them in the playoffs but maybe some consideration for next year.

You may be right, 72, but I think the Ags are a playoff quality team if they win out. Wins over a strong SUU team in Cedar City and over highly regarded Poly would be pretty darn impressive in my opinion. And, although Sac State has struggled lately, they piled up a bunch of points on Montana, and given the intensity our rivalry with them, that game is not a gimme.

If the Ags win out, their only FCS loss will be the 7 point loss to current #2 Montana. The other 2 loses are to FBS Boise and Fresno in their houses. An 8-3 record considering the SOS of the Aggies, and I think they would deserve to go.

A loss to SUU tomorrow...and none of this will matter...it is a must win period.

That's my honest, biased opinion...xthumbsupx

[Green26]

Davis is a very good team. If Davis goes 8-3, they deserve to be in the playoffs. I don't know if they can beat Cal Poly. While only 23rd in the GPI now, they will be top 16 if they win out.

Davis would clobber Liberty.

[DavisAggie]

I don't think Davis should be ranked, period.

We need to beat SUU on the road today, and then Cal Poly to even think about getting ranked.

And any talk of playoffs at this point is just silly.

[GoAgs72]

If you want to know what FBS teams think about UC Davis try this limk to the San Jose Mercury http://www.mercurynews.com/sports-headlines/ci_13680496?nclick_check=1. San Jose State has been studying UC Davis/Boise State film because Davis has been the only team to have any real success against Boise State.

Comments like "But in reviewing the videotape, Malley saw that there was more to UC Davis' success.

"You look at what they do and say, 'Does it apply to you?' " he said. "And sometimes it does apply, even though you have different personnel. We're not going to put in UC Davis' offense in one week. But they did some things that made us think, 'There are some good ideas here.' "


Another is "The combination of no turnovers and positive-yardage plays enabled UC Davis to maintain possession for nearly 30 minutes.

That allowed its defense to stay fresh and prevented Boise State from dominating the field position."

Sounds like we get some real respect at least from one football division.

[aggiemba]

Sounds like we get some real respect at least from one football division.

What a crazy situation. Lots of respect from FBS, yet our FCS East Coasters think we are division III or something based on how they rank us. Hopefully we win out, get a chance at playoffs and open some eyes out there on the East Coast.

[blue4gold]

Of course we deserve to be ranked. Our only FCS loss is to Montana in a game where we had 15 more minutes of possession, more 1st downs, more yards, etc.... But yes, it is a loss.

If you really believe there will be 16 better teams out there *IF UC DAVIS WINS OUT*, name me 16 teams that would've won more games AGAINST THAT SCHEDULE.

Sure, we should've beaten Montana. Not many teams out there that can. Don't know if there are any FCS teams that can beat Boise or Fresno.

[AgWriter]

As the author of the blog post that is the subject of this topic, I'm going to clarify a few things and answer a couple questions about the post...

While I do believe that the Aggies are a good team - not great - and believe they deserve to be ranked, I don't believe they are a great team, like a Montana, Southern Illinois or some of the top CAA teams. I think UCD could beat those teams if things break right - like the Montana game almost did - but more often then not, those teams would win.

I was also not trying to say that UCD has some great resume. The SOS I think is valid because they played one very good FBS team, one good FBS team and a very good FCS team, though they didn't win any of these games.

You guys are talking about UCD's resume being not all that great and without a good win, which is true, but half of the point of my blog post was that none of the other teams I listed had any sort of a good win either. Holy Cross hasn't played one team in a good conference and it's one of the worst teams. Same for Colgate, which lost to Holy Cross. Florida A&M, Prairie View A&M and Liberty also haven't beaten anybody. I personally don't believe home wins over Delaware State and Norfolk State are any better than a road win over South Dakota, DII transition and all. I'd even say the road win is better.

As I said in the post, personally, I give more credit to losing a close game to a good/great team than routing a horrible team. Do you respect Northern Iowa more for nearly beating Iowa or for annihilating Indiana State 62-7? Because this is how teams like Holy Cross and Colgate got to 6-1 and 7-1 - they didn't schedule FBS teams or great FCS teams. Yes, it would have meant much more for UCD to beat Montana than to lose to them - I'm not trying to say it wouldn't.

Head Cat, if you don't like Sagarin, what rankings do you prefer to look at? I'm all for using as many tools as possible to rank teams and would like to know what you use and why you use it. What do you think of the GPI?

Also, I got Vann's stats off Florida A&M's site (https://admin.xosn.com/fls/20800/stats/football/2008/famu.htm#team.ind), which lists him having three punts and three kicks returned for TDs. I'd love to be able to watch him week in and week out. I'm fortunate enough to get to watch Chris Carter go to work each week and make catches even though everyone in the stadium knows Denham is trying to get him the ball.

Today will tell everyone a lot about UCD. I think they can win the game but Southern Utah is a solid team and the game is in Cedar City so I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. I wish I could watch the game but I'll be forced to listen on the radio.

EDIT: I forgot one thing, I don't really think it matters how good teams like Colgate, SC State, FAMU, Grambling and Southern are traditionally. We're talking about what they've done this year. I'm not going to argue that UCD is anything other than a bad rushing team so far because they've been better in previous years. They've been bad this year (though they appear to be getting better) and that's all I look at when evaluating their performance this year.

[GoAgs72]

As posters on other web sites like Montana and Boise State have pointed out - UC Davis uses the short pass to replace rushing. Few have been able to stop our short pass yet. Our "balanced" attack is short pass and long pass. Yes, our traditional rushing stats are pathetic, something I would like to see improved. Once we get a team that can effectively get to our QB, it will not be pretty.

[BlueGoldAg]

Aggie fans: We're preaching to the choir, and if we don't beat SUU today, the AGS choir will be preaching to us. xnonox

[ViennaSpider]

Hope UC Davis makes the playoffs and winds up playing Richmond for the FCS championship. To my knowledge, the Spiders have never played a west coast team. That would be a great way to top off an undefeated season.

[uofmman1122]

Certainly aren't playing like a top 25 team today, Aggies. xcoffeex

[GoAgs72]

We're a second half team. 21 points no problem - right? SUU is for real.

[BlueGoldAg]

Certainly aren't playing like a top 25 team today, Aggies. xcoffeex

Let 'em rip boys...I've got my flame-retardant suit on...xpeacex

[GoAgs72]

Maybe we should just sign off until next year - kind of like the disappearance of the San Diego fans.

[WestCoastAggie]

Schedules of these teams should weigh more on the voting than overall record.

Strength of Schedule is merely an assumption of the "strength" of teams based off a previous season's performance.

But with that said, UC Davis does deserve to be ranked if they win this week. Right now, they are losing bad to SUU. If this happens, they will be 4-4 with 3 FCS victories. This doesn't seem as good as the teams in front of them in the polls that played "a weak schedule"

[GoAgs72]

Not much chance of seeing the Aggies ranked this week. SUU 49, Aggies 28 in the 4th.

[BlueGoldAg]

The Aggies got pounded by SUU today, 56-35....4 turnovers doomed the Aggies who out gained SUU 473 -351 but handed this one to the Thunerbirds on a Silver Platter

The Thunderbirds deserve to be in the top 25 and the Aggies deserve to be off the radar...

Flame-retardant suit on...check
Shields up...check
Warp speed out of here....check

[LacesOut]

[QUOTE=BlueGoldAg;1451025Flame-retardant suit on...check
Shields up...check
Warp speed out of here....check[/QUOTE]

Nice! LOL

Yep, this thread is over and done and finished.

See ya in 2010, UC Davis.

[LacesOut]

Flame-retardant suit on...check
Shields up...check
Warp speed out of here....check

Nice, LOL.

And yep, this thread/topic is over, done, and finished.

See ya in 2010 UC Davis.

[BlueGoldAg]

Nice, LOL.

And yep, this thread/topic is over, done, and finished.

See ya in 2010 UC Davis.

Thanks...hopefully we will show up next year...final stats: UCD 473 yards to SUU 351 but when you turn the ball over repeatedly deep in your own territory...well the scoreboard tells the story...we didn't get it done...nothing left to say...xrotatehx

[AggieFinn]

Polls are useless until the last month of the season...we hadn't really had a big, meaningful game until this week...and, we blew it. That's why I haven't commented on this thread until now, and all I gotta say is I just didn't feel the Aggies had proven it quite yet, and well, it's obvious, we're road weary, but that's the game and we lost it today. Go Ags!

[MacThor]

xpopcornx

[Grizzaholic]

xpopcornx

Beat me to it...yes I will have some popcorn and I will watch.

[BlueGoldAg]

Beat me to it...yes I will have some popcorn and I will watch.

The GWFC has my head spinningxrotatehx!! North Dakota beats Cal Poly by 14 and the Ags get spanked by the Thunderbirds who lost to Poly. Parity anyone....??

I hope SUU wins out...but, before then, maybe I should start a thread about Why SUU Should Be Ranked xbowx

[Grizzaholic]

The GWFC has my head spinningxrotatehx!! North Dakota beats Cal Poly by 14 and the Ags get spanked by the Thunderbirds who lost to Poly. Parity anyone....??

I hope SUU wins out...but, before then, maybe I should start a thread about Why SUU Should Be Ranked xbowx

Because they are just THAT good and DESERVE to be ranked. xcoffeex



EDIT: Do not mean to hijack this thread.

[aggiemba]

I have decided to become an SUU fan for the remainder of the season. We got thumped today, in some ways this one hurt even worse than the Fresno game.

xbawlingx

[BlueGoldAg]

Because they are just THAT good and DESERVE to be ranked. xcoffeex



EDIT: Do not mean to hijack this thread.

I think they absolutely deserve to be somewhere in the 20 to 25 range, but I'll let their fans make their own case...xwhistlex

[GoAgs72]

SUU will be on my ballot.