CAA Auto-Qualifier Scenarios

[headdressguy]

I had some time on my hands and find this kind of stuff interesting, so I tried to run as many scenarios as I could to figure out this stuff. I'll give you the basic assumptions I made and the standings and schedules, then run through what I found. It's certainly possible I screwed up somewhere, so anybody who would like to add corrections please feel free.

Assumption 1: The AQ will have no more than two conference losses. (JMU, NU, TU, URI, HU eliminated).

Assumption 2: The remaining contenders will beat the eliminated teams whenever they play (I know this is dangerous, but even I don't have the time to run all the options if we include unlikely upsets).

So the standings of the "potential champs" right now are:

UR 5-0
VU 4-1
UNH 3-1
W&M 3-1
UD 3-2
UMass 2-2
Maine 2-2

And the remaining games between these teams are:

UMass@Maine (10/31)
VU@UR (11/7)
UNH@W&M (11/14)
Maine@UNH (11/21)
UD@VU (11/21)
W&M@UR (11/21)

Barring a doomsday scenario I'll mention at the end, this will probably come down to the 0 and 1 loss teams. The first game between them is the 11/7 Nova @ UR contest, so what happens if either team wins?

Scerario 1: UR beats Nova

This is the easiest option. It leaves UR at a max of one loss, with only two teams, W&M and UNH (who play the very next week) that can match them. There are three possibilities:

1) UR beats W&M - UR is undefeated and wins the conference outright.
2) W&M beats UR AND UNH - UR and W&M finish tied at 7-1, W&M wins H2H tiebreaker.
3) W&M beats UR AND UNH beats W&M - UR and UNH finish tied at 7-1. They did not play H2H and they would finish tied against common opponents (UNH loss to UMass, UR loss to W&M). The league's third tiebreaker for teams from different divisions is road wins. UR would be 4-0 on the road, UNH 3-1. UR wins the AQ in this situation.

Boiled down, if UR beats Nova (and our "no upsets" assumption holds), they win the AQ unless W&M runs the table.

Scenario 2: Nova beats UR
This is more complicated, as it gives us four teams tied at one conference loss with two weeks to play (and gives the two loss teams a bit of hope) We can further break it out based upon the outcome of the W&M/UNH tilt:

1)W&M beats UNH and:

A) Nova beats UD - This means Nova finishes with one loss, tied with the winner of the W&M @ UR tilt. Since Nova would hold a H2H win over both, they would win the AQ regardless of the outcome of that game. or:

B) UD beats Nova - Only UR and W&M remain with one loss. The winner of their game wins the AQ (and the conference outright).


If the UNH/W&M game goes the other way, we get
2)UNH beats W&M and:

A) UNH beats Maine - UNH ends the season with one loss. Only Nova and UR can tie them. We can break it out further:

i) W&M beats UR - The outcome of Nova/UD doesn't matter, UNH is the AQ. Either UNH wins the title outright with a UD win or wins a H2H tiebreaker if Nova wins. or:
ii) UR beats W&M - Now the UD/Nova game matters.

a) Nova beats UD - Nova, UR, UNH finish in a three way tie. The division tie is broken first, so Nova knocks out UR on H2H. UNH then beats Nova the same way. UNH wins the AQ. or:
b) UD beats Nova - UNH and UR finish in a two way tie. They have no H2H, and finish with the same 5-1 record against common opponents (UR loss to Nova, UNH loss to Umass). UR wins via the aforementioned road wins tiebreaker, 4 to 3. UR wins the AQ.

OR:


B) Maine beats UNH - UNH joins W&M and a host of others with two losses. We're back to Nova and UR

i) Nova beats UD - Nova finishes with one loss, wins AQ either outright (with UR loss to W&M) or via H2H tiebreaker (if UR beats W&M) or:
ii) UD beats Nova - UR the last one loss team remaining; we're nearing our doomsday possibility

a) UR beats W&M - UR only one loss team, wins AQ. BUT IF...
b) W&M beats UR - There are no one loss teams. ALL the two loss teams are back in it. I have no idea how to work all the different tiebreak possibilities; in the end there is only chaos (and, perhaps, blood).


The takeaway, as best as I can figure it:
UR wins if they win out.
If UR beats Nova, W&M wins if they win out.
If Nova beats UR, nobody entirely controls their own fate.

If I did that right, there are your possibilities. At least until Towson or URI or JMU go beat somebody and wreck the thing all to heck. Also, if anybody knows how to set that up in outline form (with the ability to indent multiple times to show a hierarchy) on this site, let me know; I'd love to make it visually clearer.

[Sam Minuteman]

The Celtics magic number is 80 xoopsx

You have more time and patience than I do headdressguy! But cool information I'll be keeping up with this thread as the season winds to a conclusion.

[SFspidur]

Thanks for the legwork, a very interesting read.

But it doesn't have much bearing on the playoff situation. It doesn't really matter who gets the auto in the CAA. All of those top teams (barring a collapse) are going to the playoffs regardless of who officially gets the auto. Chances are pretty good that more than one of them will get seeds, too.

[headdressguy]

Agreed re: the playoff situation for most teams, though from my untrained observation it seems the committee sometimes gives some heed to the conference's AQ rules when determining seeds.

[BDKJMU]

I had some time on my hands and find this kind of stuff interesting, so I tried to run as many scenarios as I could to figure out this stuff. I'll give you the basic assumptions I made and the standings and schedules, then run through what I found. It's certainly possible I screwed up somewhere, so anybody who would like to add corrections please feel free.

Assumption 1: The AQ will have no more than two conference losses. (JMU, NU, TU, URI, HU eliminated).

Assumption 2: The remaining contenders will beat the eliminated teams whenever they play (I know this is dangerous, but even I don't have the time to run all the options if we include unlikely upsets).

So the standings of the "potential champs" right now are:

UR 5-0
VU 4-1
UNH 3-1
W&M 3-1
UD 3-2
UMass 2-2
Maine 2-2

And the remaining games between these teams are:

UMass@Maine (10/31)
VU@UR (11/7)
UNH@W&M (11/14)
Maine@UNH (11/21)
UD@VU (11/21)
W&M@UR (11/21)

Barring a doomsday scenario I'll mention at the end, this will probably come down to the 0 and 1 loss teams. The first game between them is the 11/7 Nova @ UR contest, so what happens if either team wins?

Scerario 1: UR beats Nova

This is the easiest option. It leaves UR at a max of one loss, with only two teams, W&M and UNH (who play the very next week) that can match them. There are three possibilities:

1) UR beats W&M - UR is undefeated and wins the conference outright.
2) W&M beats UR AND UNH - UR and W&M finish tied at 7-1, W&M wins H2H tiebreaker.
3) W&M beats UR AND UNH beats W&M - UR and UNH finish tied at 7-1. They did not play H2H and they would finish tied against common opponents (UNH loss to UMass, UR loss to W&M). The league's third tiebreaker for teams from different divisions is road wins. UR would be 4-0 on the road, UNH 3-1. UR wins the AQ in this situation.

Boiled down, if UR beats Nova (and our "no upsets" assumption holds), they win the AQ unless W&M runs the table.

Scenario 2: Nova beats UR
This is more complicated, as it gives us four teams tied at one conference loss with two weeks to play (and gives the two loss teams a bit of hope) We can further break it out based upon the outcome of the W&M/UNH tilt:

1)W&M beats UNH and:

A) Nova beats UD - This means Nova finishes with one loss, tied with the winner of the W&M @ UR tilt. Since Nova would hold a H2H win over both, they would win the AQ regardless of the outcome of that game. or:

B) UD beats Nova - Only UR and W&M remain with one loss. The winner of their game wins the AQ (and the conference outright).


If the UNH/W&M game goes the other way, we get
2)UNH beats W&M and:

A) UNH beats Maine - UNH ends the season with one loss. Only Nova and UR can tie them. We can break it out further:

i) W&M beats UR - The outcome of Nova/UD doesn't matter, UNH is the AQ. Either UNH wins the title outright with a UD win or wins a H2H tiebreaker if Nova wins. or:
ii) UR beats W&M - Now the UD/Nova game matters.

a) Nova beats UD - Nova, UR, UNH finish in a three way tie. The division tie is broken first, so Nova knocks out UR on H2H. UNH then beats Nova the same way. UNH wins the AQ. or:
b) UD beats Nova - UNH and UR finish in a two way tie. They have no H2H, and finish with the same 5-1 record against common opponents (UR loss to Nova, UNH loss to Umass). UR wins via the aforementioned road wins tiebreaker, 4 to 3. UR wins the AQ.

OR:


B) Maine beats UNH - UNH joins W&M and a host of others with two losses. We're back to Nova and UR

i) Nova beats UD - Nova finishes with one loss, wins AQ either outright (with UR loss to W&M) or via H2H tiebreaker (if UR beats W&M) or:
ii) UD beats Nova - UR the last one loss team remaining; we're nearing our doomsday possibility

a) UR beats W&M - UR only one loss team, wins AQ. BUT IF...
b) W&M beats UR - There are no one loss teams. ALL the two loss teams are back in it. I have no idea how to work all the different tiebreak possibilities; in the end there is only chaos (and, perhaps, blood).


The takeaway, as best as I can figure it:
UR wins if they win out.
If UR beats Nova, W&M wins if they win out.
If Nova beats UR, nobody entirely controls their own fate.

If I did that right, there are your possibilities. At least until Towson or URI or JMU go beat somebody and wreck the thing all to heck. Also, if anybody knows how to set that up in outline form (with the ability to indent multiple times to show a hierarchy) on this site, let me know; I'd love to make it visually clearer.

Would have saved yourself a lot of time by waiting 3 weeks. xrolleyesx

[GannonFan]

Agreed re: the playoff situation for most teams, though from my untrained observation it seems the committee sometimes gives some heed to the conference's AQ rules when determining seeds.

When have they done that? Sure W&M got the seed over JMU in '04, but entirely separate from the AQ that year W&M had beaten JMU head to head - I'm sure that played more of a part. In what other scenario did the awarding of the CAA AQ result in a seed to a team that may or may not have gotten the seed without it?

[CamelCityAppFan]

Chances are pretty good that more than one of them will get seeds, too.

I wouldn't be so sure of that...an unbeaten (or 1 loss) Big Sky champ could very well get a seed. And a SoCon champ with no conference losses could also get a seed. If that Big Sky champ is Montana and that SoCon champ is ASU, I'd bet the farm on it. The NCAA will want to reap the potential financial reward of playoff games in Missoula and Boone.

[WrenFGun]

Oy, headache.

From what I can gather, GO NOVA.

[SFspidur]

I wouldn't be so sure of that...an unbeaten (or 1 loss) Big Sky champ could very well get a seed. And a SoCon champ with no conference losses could also get a seed. If that Big Sky champ is Montana and that SoCon champ is ASU, I'd bet the farm on it. The NCAA will want to reap the potential financial reward of playoff games in Missoula and Boone.

I don't disagree with you on Montana and App State (although ASU has some work to do to satisfy the computers), but even then, the other two seeds would likely go to CAA schools, which is consistent with my statement. There is a decent chance that there will be at least two CAA teams with one or no losses, and you'd be awfully hard pressed to not give them seeds. Best chances of that involves UR losing to either Villanova or W&M.

You could fairly easily have three out of UR, UNH, Villanova, and W&M finishing at 10-1, with the fourth coming in at 9-2. There has to be two seeds in there somewhere. That's of course banking on those teams taking care of business against their opponents outside of that group, which is no small feat in the CAA, but still, there are likely to be some very strong records against tough schedules (all would have an FBS victory) coming out of the CAA.

[UNHFootballAlum]

Thanks for the legwork, a very interesting read.

But it doesn't have much bearing on the playoff situation. It doesn't really matter who gets the auto in the CAA. All of those top teams (barring a collapse) are going to the playoffs regardless of who officially gets the auto. Chances are pretty good that more than one of them will get seeds, too.

The CAA AQ will get a seed and the otheres in the CAA will have to fight to get a second seed

[MacThor]

Based on Playoff results the last two years, teams will be gunning for 3rd place in the South Division.

[UNH Fanboi]

I wouldn't be so sure of that...an unbeaten (or 1 loss) Big Sky champ could very well get a seed. And a SoCon champ with no conference losses could also get a seed. If that Big Sky champ is Montana and that SoCon champ is ASU, I'd bet the farm on it. The NCAA will want to reap the potential financial reward of playoff games in Missoula and Boone.

Most likely scenario now is:

Richmond (Assuming they don't lose to both Nova and W&M. I think they're guaranteed a seed with just one loss)
Montana
SIU-SDSU winner
#4 ????

If UNH, Nova or W&M ends up 10-1, it would be highway robbery for them not to get the 4th seed over App or anyone else by virtue of their superior record, wins over 2 playoff teams, and FBS win. I'm crying foul if a 9-2 App gets a seed over a 10-1 UNH, Nova or W&M, but it wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm sure the money-hungry NCAA will find any way possible to get more playoff games in Boone instead of Durham or Nova in particular. Nova got cheated out of a seed last year.

[UNH Fanboi]

Would have saved yourself a lot of time by waiting 3 weeks. xrolleyesx

The same could be said for about 95% of the threads in here. We gotta pass the time somehow.

[Saluki09]

When have they done that? Sure W&M got the seed over JMU in '04, but entirely separate from the AQ that year W&M had beaten JMU head to head - I'm sure that played more of a part. In what other scenario did the awarding of the CAA AQ result in a seed to a team that may or may not have gotten the seed without it?

You need look no farther than last year... SIU won the H2H over UNI last year, but we had a bad loss at NDSU and UNI got the seed while not being the AQ

[URMite]

I don't disagree with you on Montana and App State (although ASU has some work to do to satisfy the computers), but even then, the other two seeds would likely go to CAA schools, which is consistent with my statement. There is a decent chance that there will be at least two CAA teams with one or no losses, and you'd be awfully hard pressed to not give them seeds. Best chances of that involves UR losing to either Villanova or W&M.

You could fairly easily have three out of UR, UNH, Villanova, and W&M finishing at 10-1, with the fourth coming in at 9-2. There has to be two seeds in there somewhere. That's of course banking on those teams taking care of business against their opponents outside of that group, which is no small feat in the CAA, but still, there are likely to be some very strong records against tough schedules (all would have an FBS victory) coming out of the CAA.

I think you may have 1 to few losses in your scenario. Those 4 have 3 losses between them and 3 games left between them, so 6 losses total. Maybe 2 X 10-1, 2 X 9-2? Still could be 2 seeds very easily.

[UNH Fanboi]

I think you may have 1 to few losses in your scenario. Those 4 have 3 losses between them and 3 games left between them, so 6 losses total. Maybe 2 X 10-1, 2 X 9-2? Still could be 2 seeds very easily.

If Villanova beats Richmond, UNH beats W&M, and Richmond beats W&M, then Richmond, UNH and Nova would all be 10-1, and W&M would be 8-3, adding up to 6 losses.

[SFspidur]

Ah, thanks guys...I missed a loss on the W&M side there somewhere.

[GannonFan]

You need look no farther than last year... SIU won the H2H over UNI last year, but we had a bad loss at NDSU and UNI got the seed while not being the AQ


That's what I'm saying - who a particular conference may deem to be the conference's AQ does not mean that the selection committee couldn't pick someone else in that conference to get a seed. The selection committee isn't bound by conference issues when picking seeds.

[Tribe4SF]

That's what I'm saying - who a particular conference may deem to be the conference's AQ does not mean that the selection committee couldn't pick someone else in that conference to get a seed. The selection committee isn't bound by conference issues when picking seeds.

While they're not bound by conference isues, tie-breakers for an AQ will frequently represent the kind of comparisons the committee is making. Head-to-head, common opponents, playing an all D-I schedule, etc.