Post Season Analysis - The Right Way

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications:
The Ivy League does not participate The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game, only second place teams are playoff eligible. The MAAC, NEC, Great West Conference, Big South and PFL are eligible but do not have an auto bid. Teams ineligible: Bryant, UTC, C. Ark, E. Washington, Jax State, NC Central, N. Dakota, Presbyterian, S. Dakota, and WS State. A team must reach 7 D1 wins for an at large consideration.

Below, is at the prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the field, as determined by Me. Current records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field, regardless of how they finish.

1. Richmond (7-0, 5-0 CAA)
The Games: at Towson (10/31), Villanova (11/7), at Georgetown (11/14), W&M (11/21)

Outlook: The Spiders appear to headed back to the playoffs, 2 more wins will secure that – but a top seed and Autobid is at hand, 3 losses in last 4 games could be trouble.

2. Montana (7-0, 4-0 Big Sky)
The Games: Weber State (10/31), at Idaho State (11/7), N Colorado (11/14), at Montana State (11/21)

Outlook: Secure 2 more wins and you are in – 3 out of 4 losses at the end could pose trouble however they appear to be in the drivers seat to a top 4 seed and Autobid.

3. Southern Illinois (6-1, 5-0 MVC)
The Games: at Indiana State (10/31), at South Dakota State (11/7), MO State (11/14), at SE MO St (11/21)

Outlook: S. Illinois will push for an autobid and top 4 seed in two weeks, for now they must keep winning!

4. Elon (6-1, 4-0 Southern)
The Games: at Wofford (10/31), at Western Carolina (11/7), ASU (11/14), at Samford (11/21)

Outlook: Elon is the class of the SoCon so far this year with ASU’s up and downs. However tough games ahead will determine their fate – win out and you are a top 4 seed, win 2 and you are still in.

5. Villanova (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Richmond (11/7), at Towson (11/14), Delaware (11/21)

Outlook: The outlook is good for Villanova but they can still capture the Autobid and a top 4 seed – they have two weeks to prepare for Richmond – will it payoff?

6. South Carolina State (6-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: Delaware State (10/31), at Howard (11/7), Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)

Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.

7. SF Austin (6-1, 3-0 Southland)
The Games: at Texas State (10/31), Nichols State (11/7), at SE Louisana (11/14), at N’western State (11/21)

Outlook: SFA has become the front runner for the Southland and winning out could bring talk of a top 4 seed.

8. New Hampshire (6-1, 3-1 CAA)
The Games: Northeastern (10/31), Rhode Island (11/7), at W&M (11/14), Maine (11/21)

Outlook: The best thing for NH is their schedule, only W&M should pose a real threat and even at 3 losses they are in the field.

9. South Dakota State (6-1, 5-0 MVC)
The Games: at Youngstown State (10/31), S. Illinois (11/7), at Minnesota (11/14), at W. Illinois (11/21)

Outlook: They must win two more to secure the post season berth, a possible MVC autobid is very much within their reach.


10. William & Mary (6-1, 3-1 CAA)
The Games: at Rhode Island (10/31), Towson (11/7), N Hampshire (11/14), at Richmond (11/21)

Outlook: Two more losses could be in store for the tribe but if they win out they could steal the Autobid and secure a top seed.


11. Holy Cross (6-1, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Fordham (10/31), at Lehigh (11/7) Lafayette (11/14), at Bucknell (11/21)

Outlook: They have taken the lead in the Patriot, winning out will secure the Autobid.

12. McNeese State (5-2, 2-1 Southland)
The Games: at Nichols State (10/31), Sam Houston State (11/7), at Texas State (11/14), C. Arkansas (11/21)

Outlook: A huge win at ASU keeps the Cowboys in – but a tough slate of games ahead could push this team right our of the post season.

13. Northern Iowa (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: Youngstown State (11/7), W. Illinois (11/14), at Illinois State (11/21)

Outlook: MUST WIN OUT!

14. Eastern Kentucky/Eastern Illinois/ Tenn Tech/Tenn State (OVC)
The Games:

Outlook: AB No longer matters, a down year for this conference – someone will get the Autobid and that will be it

15. Colgate (7-1, 2-1 Patriot)
The Games: Lehigh (10/31), at Layfayette (11/7), Bucknell (11/14)

Outlook: Colgate can ill afford another loss – but should be in good shape for the playoffs if they win their last 3.


16. Appalachian State (5-2, 4-0 Southern)
The Games: at Furman (10/31), UTC (11/7), at Elon (11/14), Western Carolina (11/21)

Outlook: The Mountaineers have been playing for their playoff lives for the last 5 weeks – so far they have responded and must get the win at Furman to relax – however 2 losses and they are out! 4 wins and they could be a top 4 seed.


17. Missouri State (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: Ill State (10/31), Indiana State (11/7), at S. Illinois (11/14),

Outlook: If Mo State can win out I can’t see them being left out of the postseason.
18. Florida A&M (5-2, 3-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Morgan State (10/31), NC A&T (11/7), at Hampton(11/14), at Bethune Cookman(11/21)

Outlook: An interesting scenario as the MEAC is making a run at two bids this year, the rattlers will need to win out to keep that talk going – if they do it would potentially eliminate a bubble team from around the country.


19. Cal Poly (4-3, 1-0 Great West)
The Games: at North Dakota (10/31), at UC Davis (11/7), South Dakota (11/14), at Weber State (11/21)

Outlook: Things don’t look so good for Cal Poly they must win out to have consideration – just too many quality teams available at 3 losses.


20. Northern Arizona (5-2, 4-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Sacramento State (10/31), at Ole Miss (11/7), at Weber State (11/14), Eastern Washington (11/21)

Outlook: A tough schedule to navigate but worthy of consideration if they can find 3 more wins.

21. Massachussets (4-3, 2-2 CAA)
The Games: at Maine (10/31), Northeastern (11/7) James Madison (11/14), at Hofstra (11/21)

Outlook: They must win out to garner a bid, it is possible as they should be favored but I see someone spoiling their chances.

22. Layfayette (6-1, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: Bucknell (10/31), Colgate (11/7), at Holy Cross (11/14), at Lehigh (11/21)

Outlook: Must win out but a tough schedule remains.


23. SE Louisana (4-3, 2-1 Southland)
The Games: C. Arkansas (10/31), at N’western State (11/7), SFA (11/14), Nichols State (11/21)

Outlook: Can still win the Autobid but a lot of football left to be played – I do not see them winning out.



24. Weber State (5-3, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana (10/31), N Arizona (11/14), at Cal Poly (11/21)

Outlook: Weber has several options at hand including the Autobid, but a 4th loss could spell disaster as there are just too many teams that will have 3 losses or less to be considered.

25. Delaware (5-2, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: James Madison (10/31), Hofstra (11/7), at Navy (11/14), at Villanova (11/21)

Outlook: They must find 3 wins in their next four games – a Navy loss is likely so a showdown with Villanova could decide their playoff future.


26. Liberty (5-2, 2-0 Big South)
The Games: Presbyterian (10/31), VMI (11/7), at Gardner Webb (11/14), at Stony Brook (11/21)

Outlook: The flames chances are beginning to fade, the loss to JMU was a big blow.


27. Montana State (4-3, 2-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (10/31), at Portland State (11/7), Sacramento State (11/14), Montana (11/21)

Outlook: Win out and you could be in the post season – slip up and you are certainly out.


28. Morgan State (5-2, 3-1 MEAC)
The Games: Florida A&M (10/31), Norfolk State (11/7), at SC State (11/14), at Hampton (11/21)

Outlook: Same scenario at Fla A&M but again must win out – unlikely with the difficult part of the schedule ahead of them.


29. Youngstown State (4-3, 2-2 MVC)
The Games: South Dakota State (10/31), at N. Iowa (11/7), Illinois State (11/14), at North Dakota State (11/21)

Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win their last four games just to be talked about.



30. Furman (4-3, 3-2 Southern)
The Games: ASU (10/31), at Auburn (11/7), at GSU (11/14), Wofford (11/21)

Outlook: Furman will not beat Auburn so they must win out and need help to get the Autobid – first up Beat ASU!


31. Lehigh (2-5, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Colgate (10/31), Holy Cross (11/7), at Fordham (11/14), at Layfayette (11/21)

Outlook: Could win Auto by winning out – I say not.

Others that I am watching…Central Conn. State, GSU, Butler, Gardner Webb


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Holy Cross, A10: Richmond, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: SFA, Southern: Elon, Gateway: S. Illinois, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: E. Illinois

At-large: Villanova, N. Iowa, N. Hamp, W&M, S Dakota State, ASU, McNeese State, Colgate.

Seeds: Montana, Richmond, S. Illinois, Elon

Last In: ASU and Colgate
Last Out: FLa A&M, and Weber State

Bracket I: Holy Cross at No. 1 Richmond; Colgate at Villanova;
W&M at No. 4 Elon; SCSt at ASU

Bracket II: S. Dakota State at No. 2 Montana; McNeese State at N. Iowa;
E. Illinois at No. 3 S. Illinois; N Hamp at SFA

NOTES:
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, Sdak St/Montanay..
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – S Dak State.
*NC game based on my projections, Villanova/S Illinois– S Illinois wins it all…

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty below Lafayette? Other than that it looks good...

[MacThor]

Nice job. However...

If App St. finishes 8-3, you say they could be a seed.

If UR or Montana finish 8-3, you say they could be "in trouble."

[grizband]

Still hope to see multiple Big Sky teams in the playoffs, otherwise this looks good!

[Thumper 76]

do SIU and SDSU flip if SDSU takes the autobid and wins out (but loses to Minn)

[PhoenixSupreme]

App St. is 7-0 in the conference, you say? A little early to be saying that my friend xlolx

It looks pretty good though other than that (especially with Elon having a seed :D)

[AshevilleApp2]

Nice job. However...

If App St. finishes 8-3, you say they could be a seed.

If UR or Montana finish 8-3, you say they could be "in trouble."

xnodx Four more wins for App, combined with some losses by other teams, could possibly lead to a seed. Doubtful though.

[txstatebobcat]

McNeese St should go to the playoffs even if they lose one more game.

[SumItUp]

Good work Go Apps.

If the Patriot gets 2 (Big IF), I think Lafayette will grab one of those spots.

SIU lost their QB for the regular season and needs to win out for consideration of a seed. That's a tall order. I see SDSU winning the autobid in the MVFC.

There is still a lot of football to be played. Five or six of these teams will be dropped from consideration in the next two weeks.

[danefan]

I don't see any chance for the PL to get two.

[Go Apps]

Thanks for all the comments will fix the little mishaps next week - for the PL think it would be hard to keep out a 1 loss team from that league

[danefan]

Thanks for all the comments will fix the little mishaps next week - for the PL think it would be hard to keep out a 1 loss team from that league

Why?

A 1 loss team from the PL won't have any good wins.

Colgate's is the only team that could end up with one loss and not get the AQ and their SOS is way down this year.

And BTW, there is no MAAC anymore.

[MacThor]

xnodx Four more wins for App, combined with some losses by other teams, could possibly lead to a seed. Doubtful though.

Well yeah, a 9-2 App St. team could possibly get a seed, of course. That's not what he said.

He said an 8-3 App St. team could get a seed, while an 8-3 Richmond or 8-3 Montana could be in danger of missing the field.

[Go Apps]

Sorry my thought process is that 3 out of your final 4 games is never viewed very well - they look at when teams are peaking - ASU would only get a seed consideration if they win out and several other teams in the upper ranks lose - the loss to ECU will be tossed out in consideration - those teams that beat FBS teams will have their win included as a strong positive...The reason I went with the PL for two is a few years back when they surprised everybody by including Lafayette and they had 2 losses - no one saw that coming...I think that SCSt could be in the same discussion...again lots of games left and many eliminations will be provided - one thing for certain is that CAA will get at least 4, but I believe 5 in the field...

Just imagine if we had the field of 20 this year?

[PhoenixPhan06]

Great projections and so glad we have a playoff!!

[danefan]

Sorry my thought process is that 3 out of your final 4 games is never viewed very well - they look at when teams are peaking - ASU would only get a seed consideration if they win out and several other teams in the upper ranks lose - the loss to ECU will be tossed out in consideration - those teams that beat FBS teams will have their win included as a strong positive...The reason I went with the PL for two is a few years back when they surprised everybody by including Lafayette and they had 2 losses - no one saw that coming...I think that SCSt could be in the same discussion...again lots of games left and many eliminations will be provided - one thing for certain is that CAA will get at least 4, but I believe 5 in the field...

Just imagine if we had the field of 20 this year?

20 wouldn't be that bad this year actually. You get two relatively strong teams from the Big South and NEC and then two strong teams from the major conferences that were scheduling victims (e.g. Delaware), etc....

Would be interesting to me at least.xthumbsupx

[MacThor]

I'll grant you, if Richmond drops 3 of 4 with Towson and Georgetown still on the schedule, it will look bad.

Barring a devastating H1N1 outbreak, I don't see it happening.

[Pard94]

I don't see any chance for the PL to get two.

Really? That surprise me. I thought you were on the fence about this issue.xsmiley_wix

[Pard94]

OMG!!!! Richmond plays Georgetown???xeekx I can't bear to watch. No offense to G'town but if Richmond isn't playing their 4th string by half time the Hoyas should chalk it up as a moral victory.

[Franks Tanks]

Liberty below Lafayette? Other than that it looks good...

Ya-- as well as Lafayette is playing right now its hard to argue that the Leopards should be ahead of Liberty. The game between us was close, but it was a solid win for Liberty on the road.

[Schfourteenteen]

Remember the list is based on their chances. Lafayette winning out(very plausible) puts them in the field.

Liberty needs a miracle.

[Pard94]

Remember the list is based on their chances. Lafayette winning out(very plausible) puts them in the field.

Liberty needs a miracle.

From your keyboard to God's ears!

[Schfourteenteen]

Oh I've got the prayer on my copy paste clipboard. Hopefully I'm not on His SPAM list yet. :D

[JMUNJ08]

3. Southern Illinois (6-1, 5-0 MVC)
The Games: at Indiana State (10/31), at South Dakota State (11/7), MO State (11/14), at SE MO St (11/21)

Outlook: S. Illinois will push for an autobid and top 4 seed in two weeks, for now they must keep winning!

6. South Carolina State (6-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: Delaware State (10/31), at Howard (11/7), Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)

Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.


Automatic Bids: Patriot: Holy Cross, A10: Richmond, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: SFA, Southern: Elon, Gateway: S. Illinois, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: E. Illinois

At-large: Villanova, N. Iowa, N. Hamp, W&M, S Dakota State, ASU, McNeese State, Colgate.

Seeds: Montana, Richmond, S. Illinois, Elon

Last In: ASU and Colgate
Last Out: FLa A&M, and Weber State

Bracket I: Holy Cross at No. 1 Richmond; Colgate at Villanova;
W&M at No. 4 Elon; SCSt at ASU

Bracket II: S. Dakota State at No. 2 Montana; McNeese State at N. Iowa;
E. Illinois at No. 3 S. Illinois; N Hamp at SFA

NOTES:
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, Sdak St/Montanay..
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – S Dak State.
*NC game based on my projections, Villanova/S Illinois– S Illinois wins it all…

A10=CAA
Gateway=MVFC

I agree that SCSt is just in the wrong region with other strong teams. If all 16 were seeded I would be getting playoff tickets right now if I was down in SC. Otherwise a road trip may be the outcome unless they start destroying some conference foes.

S. Illinois just lost their QB until the playoffs. While they are a very good team, the seed and home games are in jeopardy.

Very good rendition of whats up overall. A lot of teams have more counting against them as the season continues than going for them. Is it me or do there seem to be more fringe playoff teams than shoe-ins this year compared to last?

[bluehenbillk]

It's already been said about SIU losing their QB. I'm curious what the Patriot has done to merit even consideration for an at-large berth?

[RationalGriz]

EWU is now a playoff possibility

[UR Spider]

OMG!!!! Richmond plays Georgetown???xeekx I can't bear to watch. No offense to G'town but if Richmond isn't playing their 4th string by half time the Hoyas should chalk it up as a moral victory.

Believe it or not - we are playing AT Georgetown. I've been looking online for an explanation as to why we played a home and home with them this year and last but can't find anything. I would think it would just be a guarantee game.

[MacThor]

Believe it or not - we are playing AT Georgetown. I've been looking online for an explanation as to why we played a home and home with them this year and last but can't find anything. I would think it would just be a guarantee game.

Richmond has done a home-and-home with a Patriot League team for a while now. Bucknell before G'Town, Lafayette before that. Basically our schedule is 8 conference, 1 FBS, 1 PL and VMI (we got Stony Brook instead of VMI a few years ago).

If we get a twelfth game we are trying to get a good SoCon match up (Elon last year and next).

[bostonspider]

Yeah we have neither a PL nor VMI next year, but rather Elon and Coastal Carolina, both at Robins Stadium

[UncleSam]

Delaware's playoffs hopes are still alive and the Hens would have been sitting pretty if they had made that chip shot FG vs Richmond.... xoopsx

As a result, they now have to win at least 3 of their last 4, which means an upset win at Navy or at Villanova. That's a very tough road.

[rcny46]

I don't see any chance for the PL to get two.


You're right.I don't think there's any chance that we'll see that.

[catbob]

Long shot I know, but Montana State could finish 8-3 with wins over Montana & Weber State. Any chance of making the playoffs?

[Redwyn]

I don't see any chance for the PL to get two.

Amen. Just too much stacked against them, particularly SOS

[4th and What?]

I don't see the PL getting two teams in and the GWC getting zero. Could happen I suppose if they eat each other(UCD loss to SUU and Cal Poly loss to UCD). I also don't see why everyone is still convinced about UNI. A close loss to Iowa does not guarantee a playoff spot. Their only shot I think is if they get a good win against Youngstown and Youngstown drops SD St......and they would still need some help in other conferences.

[4th and What?]

Long shot I know, but Montana State could finish 8-3 with wins over Montana & Weber State. Any chance of making the playoffs?

Win over Montana and you are in the mix. It would be pretty nasty with Weber beating EWU beating Mt St beating Weber St.

A win over Montana would be what seperates you from the pack. Though the loss to NAU at home would hold you down just as much...... damn, it would make a mess of a Big Sky #2 bid xeekx

[Go...gate]

Why?

A 1 loss team from the PL won't have any good wins.

Colgate's is the only team that could end up with one loss and not get the AQ and their SOS is way down this year.

And BTW, there is no MAAC anymore.

You have traction on this, and the fault lies with our AD. Until this year, nearly any Colgate schedule was strong enough for us to deserve a bid, and we would get our share of wins against the CAA and others. We don't even get that chance this year. It may 10-1 Colgate missing the play-offs against this schedule to get in our AD's head to do a better job of scheduling.

[Go Apps]

Will have to add Eastern Washington back in the mix next week based on recent updates - of course they will need to win out to earn a bid.

[Montana_Mojo]

Eastern Washington is out. I think it would take an extraordinary set of events for them to get in. In order to have a shot, they needed to beat either Montana or Weber State. But now their only shot at a win against a top FCS team is Northern Arizona in the final week. They have no FCS wins outside of the Big Sky, and have lost to Montana and Weber State. EWU can forget the playoffs, even if they win out.

[Go Apps]

Lafayette is ahead due to potential - they can certainly still win the Autobid - Liberty has no such opportunity.