10/26/2009 Gridiron Power Index (GPI), Richmond No. 1

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10/26/2009 Gridiron Power Index (GPI), Richmond No. 1
College Sporting News

The Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the index ranking for the NCAA Division I FCS and a top indicator of at-large playoff selection continues with unbeaten and defending Division I National Champion Richmond in the top spot.

The Colonial Athletic Association, the largest league in the FCS has six teams in the top 25; the Big Sky Conference has five; the Great West, Missouri Valley Football, and the Southland Conferences have three each; the Southern and Ohio Valley Conferences have two each; and the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference has one. (Games through 10/26)

The Final 2009 GPI will be released once all the college football games have been played, in January 2010.

10/26/2009 GPI Top 25

1. Richmond (1.00)
2. Villanova (2.75)
3. Montana (3.25)
4. William & Mary (3.75)
5. S Illinois (4.50)
6. S Dakota St (7.38)
7. New Hampshire (7.63)
8. Elon (9.38)
9. Northern Iowa (10.13)
10. Delaware (10.88)
11. SF Austin (11.88)
12. S Carolina St (13.88)
13. N Arizona (14.50)
14. Massachusetts (14.75)
15. Weber St (15.63)
16. Appalachian St (16.00)
17. Cal Poly SLO (16.38)
18. Jacksonville St (18.00)
19. E Washington (19.75)
20. E Illinois (20.00)
21. McNeese St (21.75)
22T. UC Davis (22.00)
22T. Cent Arkansas (22.00)
24T. Montana St (24.25)
24T. Southern Utah (24.25)

Read More ... (http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php/2009/10/26/10-26-2009-gridiron-power-index-gpi-rich-1?blog=5)

[ToTheLeft]

This confirms my suspicions that, unless everyone in front of us pulls an Elon xpeacex and collapses, we won't make the playoffs. This week we play a team in the bottom 20, and even if we kill them, we won't move up in the computers. A Coastal win over Clemson would maybe help, but not much...

Time to look forward to the autobid. xcoffeex

[SoCalAg]

Go get 'em Great West.

[Eight Legger]

Aside from UMass too high and App too low, I think this is the most representative ranking I have seen so far.

[ToTheLeft]

Aside from UMass too high and App too low, I think this is the most representative ranking I have seen so far.

You think Southern Utah, Montana State, and UC Davis are amongst the 25 best in the nation?

I agree that the top 20 is pretty solid. After that, it's a bit sketchy.

[GannonFan]

Who does UMass have pictures of that is keeping them that high??? Non-competitive in games against UD and Richmond, and that one-sparkling win over UNH mixed in with wins over nobodies and they still sit at #14. Yikes. Obviously computers don't have eyes so they didn't see how bad UMass looked in those two losses to UD and Richmond - no computer has them ranked worse than 14th. Heck, gotta love that Keeper ranking - UMass now has one more loss than UD, got throttled by UD on the field, and despite all of this, the Keeper computer has UD #15 and UMass #12. Good thing we don't play UMass again - we could beat them by the same margin again and probably drop further behind them!!!! Gotta love computers trying to crunch such a small sample size!!!!

[Silenoz]

You think Southern Utah, Montana State, and UC Davis are amongst the 25 best in the nation?

I agree that the top 20 is pretty solid. After that, it's a bit sketchy.
I'd feel more confident about getting a win over any of the teams behind Davis or MSU if it came to it.... but maybe that's my "West Coast" bias?

[PhoenixSupreme]

You think Southern Utah, Montana State, and UC Davis are amongst the 25 best in the nation?

I agree that the top 20 is pretty solid. After that, it's a bit sketchy.

The most important thing is that the top 20 looks good for the most part. If 21-25 is the only thing to worry about, then that is perfectly fine with me.

[TBIRDSFN10]

Southern Utah is a lot better than some of you think. They lost to Cal Poly who is #17 by only one point and some say they dominated the stats of that game, and they only lost to Northern Arizona #13 by 3 points. I think this is the best rankings that I have seen this season. The other two games they lost were to two FBS schools...they handled Texas ST when they were #19. So why are you knocking them?

[SumItUp]

Southern Utah is a lot better than some of you think........ So why are you knocking them?

Southern Utah is 2-4 against D1 competition.

[T-Dog]

Good thing this doesn't matter for another month. xnodx

[TBIRDSFN10]

Well we all know that everyone isn't going to be satisfied...It is what it is..Guess it helps that are conference is ranked #2 and have tough schedules.

[GeauxLions94]

24T. Southern Utah (24.25)

Read More ... (http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php/2009/10/26/10-26-2009-gridiron-power-index-gpi-rich-1?blog=5)

A 3-4 team tied for 24th. Nice xrolleyesx

http://teenormous.com/images/t-shirts/www.nbcuniversalstore.com/img-product-resized-00023689-817687_400.jpg

[WestCoastAggie]

Southern Utah is 2-4 against D1 competition.
Hate to bust ya chops but wouldn't this mean that Strength of Schedule and the competitiveness of the game aren't as important as many, including yourself, have deemed so?

There are plenty of teams from the MEAC, Patriot, Big South, PFL and OVC that have at least 4,5 wins against FCS competition. xwhistlex

[GoAgs72]

Southern Utah and UC Davis are both going to be significant players in the West in future years and of course we already have Cal Poly. Get used to it By the time they become playoff eligible, South and North Dakota may be up there, too. Our biggest problem will be knocking each other out of the playoffs and finding enough other FCS teams to play.

[SDFS]

General note to the Liberty folks.. I am sure that you have a nice program. But, you have to schedule a more difficult OCC.. I like the WV and JM games, but NCC is going to hurt you when your conference is still building. Your highest ranked opp is Lafayette at #29 and you won and JM at #30 and you lost so, being ranked at #26 seems very generous. If you want to be in the Top 20 you have to play Top 20 teams - it seems very simple to me..

I think somebody noted that SUU is 2-4 against D1 competition which is true, but they are 0-2 against FBS and 2-2 vs FCS. Plus, look at the schedule that SUU will have compared to LU:

SUU - 2 FBS, #13, #17, #19, #22, #22, #45, #48 and #50, one D-II game
LU - 1 FBS, #29, #30, #50, #54, #66, #81, #88, #118, one D-II game

At the end of the year nobody will really know how good LU is?!!?! Nobody is saying you have a bad team.. but nobody knows how to measure your performance against the Top Twenty because it is all speculation.

[TBIRDSFN10]

General note to the Liberty folks.. I am sure that you have a nice program. But, you have to schedule a more difficult OCC.. I like the WV and JM games, but NCC is going to hurt you when your conference is still building. Your highest ranked opp is Lafayette at #29 and you won and JM at #30 and you lost so, being ranked at #26 seems very generous. If you want to be in the Top 20 you have to play Top 20 teams - it seems very simple to me..

I think somebody noted that SUU is 2-4 against D1 competition which is true, but they are 0-2 against FBS and 2-2 vs FCS. Plus, look at the schedule that SUU will have compared to LU:

SUU - 2 FBS, #13, #17, #19, #22, #22, #45, #48 and #50, one D-II game
LU - 1 FBS, #29, #30, #50, #54, #66, #81, #88, #118, one D-II game

At the end of the year nobody will really know how good LU is?!!?! Nobody is saying you have a bad team.. but nobody knows how to measure your performance against the Top Twenty because it is all speculation.

Thank you I couldn't have said it better myself. As far as the GWFC being the second best confernce, who else has a good argument. BSC or the MVC would have the best arguments but if you take a closer look:

Big Sky has Sac St., Port st., Northern Colorado, and Idaho St, which have combined 1 OOC FCS win versus San Diego.

MVC has NDSU, Indiana St., West. Ill which have combined 1 OOC FCS win versus Wanger.

Each Great West team has 2 OOC wins. the GWFC might not have the best teams in the nation, but from top to bottom other confernces have a hard argument. Plus North Dakota, even though everyone thinks they are a bad team, beat one of the Big South's best team.

[Keeper]

Who does UMass have pictures of that is keeping them that high??? Non-competitive in games against UD and Richmond, and that one-sparkling win over UNH mixed in with wins over nobodies and they still sit at #14. Yikes. Obviously computers don't have eyes so they didn't see how bad UMass looked in those two losses to UD and Richmond - no computer has them ranked worse than 14th. Heck, gotta love that Keeper ranking - UMass now has one more loss than UD, got throttled by UD on the field, and despite all of this, the Keeper computer has UD #15 and UMass #12. Good thing we don't play UMass again - we could beat them by the same margin again and probably drop further behind them!!!! Gotta love computers trying to crunch such a small sample size!!!!

Gannon has a valid argument while always stating the obvious.
Computer systems cogitate unbiased data for the most part.
Many systems (mine included) do not consider head-to-head to determine rank.
Strength-of-schedule is the major component in most systems.

KCFR has UMass SOS approx 7 pts better than UD at this time, but a win-loss
rating only 0.06 pts better than UD right now. Both teams play JM & Hofstra,
UM also has Maine & NE, Hens have Villanova & Navy. If Delaware wins out,
the ranking will take care of itself. Either drop West Chester from the schedule
or get all the systems to disregard all non-FCS results. Actually, I have been
studying a formula which would minimize results against non-subdivision
opponents for a more accurate SOS factor rather than equal consideration
for all games, but that is a conundrum that all systems have to deal with.
My system does not differentiate between sub-divisions or classification of
opponents, only their individual worth. Any ideas relative to a more
sophisticated yet fair SOS application would be welcome by myself.

[Native]

Thank you I couldn't have said it better myself. As far as the GWFC being the second best confernce, who else has a good argument. BSC or the MVC would have the best arguments but if you take a closer look:

Big Sky has Sac St., Port st., Northern Colorado, and Idaho St, which have combined 1 OOC FCS win versus San Diego.

MVC has NDSU, Indiana St., West. Ill which have combined 1 OOC FCS win versus Wanger.

Each Great West team has 2 OOC wins. the GWFC might not have the best teams in the nation, but from top to bottom other confernces have a hard argument. Plus North Dakota, even though everyone thinks they are a bad team, beat one of the Big South's best team.

The current BSC-GWFC inter-conference score is 4-2 in favor of the Big Sky, with 4 games yet to be played.

Big Sky over Great West:
UM>UCD 17-10
UM>CP 35-23
NAU>SUU 42-39
MSU>USD 31-24

Great West over Big Sky:
UCD>PSU 34-31
CP>Sac St 38>19 (corrected)

TBD:
EWU@SUU
CP@WSU
UCD@Sac St
USD@UNC

Congrats on those two big GWFC wins over the Big Sky.

[TBIRDSFN10]

The current BSC-GWFC inter-conference score is 4-1 in favor of the Big Sky, with 4 games yet to be played.

Big Sky over Great West:
UM>UCD 17-10
UM>CP 35-23
NAU>SUU 42-39
MSU>USD 31-24

Great West over Big Sky:
UCD>PSU 34-31

TBD:
EWU@SUU
CP@WSU
UCD@Sac St
USD@UNC

Congrats on that single GWFC win over the Big Sky.

UMM...Did you forget about the Cal Poly vs. Sac St game? Which I recall was a blow out.

That wasn't my point....I just pointed out that you have teams in your conference that pull your rankings down. But if you want to talk about the BSC vs. GWFC T5 of 6 were played at BSC schools and USD took Montana ST. into overtime. Plus it seems like our teams are playing your top two teams very tough on the road, making my point again. Every team in our conference can play with your top five and we don't have any bottom feeders.

[Native]

UMM...Did you forget about the Cal Poly vs. Sac St game? Which I recall was a blow out.

That wasn't my point....I just pointed out that you have teams in your conference that pull your rankings down. But if you want to talk about the BSC vs. GWFC T5 of 6 were played at BSC schools and USD took Montana ST. into overtime. Plus it seems like our teams are playing your top two teams very tough on the road, making my point again. Every team in our conference can play with your top five and we don't have any bottom feeders.

Thanks for reminding me about the CP-Sac St game. I made the corrrection.

This year, we have about the same propotion of weak teams in the Big Sky as the Great West or the CAA, but a slightly smaller proportion than the MVFC, and much smaller than other conferences. These things change a bit from year to year.

No bottom feeders in the GWFC? If your point was to make a case for the power rating of the GWFC you failed. No excuses. Ten inter-conference games between the BSC and the GWFC is more than a representative sample, and not limited to power matchups. The score is 4-2. Everything else is BS. Read 'em and weep.

[eastbayaggie]

Actually, I have been
studying a formula which would minimize results against non-subdivision
opponents for a more accurate SOS factor rather than equal consideration
for all games, but that is a conundrum that all systems have to deal with.
My system does not differentiate between sub-divisions or classification of
opponents, only their individual worth. Any ideas relative to a more
sophisticated yet fair SOS application would be welcome by myself.

How about including all the teams in the Division II, Division III, and NAIA of which I presume Massey, Laz Index, Self, and Ashburn have?

[89Hen]

Southern Utah is a lot better than some of you think. They lost to Cal Poly who is #17 by only one point and some say they dominated the stats of that game, and they only lost to Northern Arizona #13 by 3 points. I think this is the best rankings that I have seen this season. The other two games they lost were to two FBS schools...they handled Texas ST when they were #19. So why are you knocking them?
We heard the same thing last year (win over TxSt, close losses, etc...). There's a very good chance SUU will end up 4-7 just like last year. If you want people to believe you're a top 30 team, you have to start actually winning games. xpeacex

[89Hen]

How about including all the teams in the Division II, Division III, and NAIA of which I presume Massey, Laz Index, Self, and Ashburn have?
xeekx Are you citing those as credible sources? xlolx

Regular Season Final Rankings 2008...

Self
13. Massachusetts (7-5)
15. Eastern Washington (6-5)
18. Montana State (7-5)

Laz
1. JMU
4. Richmond
5. Villanova
7. UNH
11. W&M
14. Maine
16. Massachusetts

[phoenix3]

App is definately too low. Still paying for the loss to McNeese I guess.

[eastbayaggie]

xeekx Are you citing those as credible sources? xlolx

Regular Season Final Rankings 2008...

Self
13. Massachusetts (7-5)
15. Eastern Washington (6-5)
18. Montana State (7-5)

Laz
1. JMU
4. Richmond
5. Villanova
7. UNH
11. W&M
14. Maine
16. Massachusetts

This is getting off-tangent. I just want to know if it's logistically possible for Keeper to add in more teams in his list to get a more reliable data set or perhaps that may be too much work.

Anyway, I'm an FCS newbie so I don't know much about the rankings last year, so out of curiosity I looked at the Laz Index and Self last year as well.

(I'm using Final 2008 Rankings below.)

Self
13. Massachusetts (7-5) --> Middle 5 Computer Rankings - #12, #12, #13, #14, #16
14. Eastern Washington (6-5) --> Middle 5 Computer Rankings - #13, #14, #14, #18, #19
18. Montana State (7-5) --> Middlle 5 Computer Rankings - #18, #20, #21, #25, #28

Laz (Corrected Final Laz Rankings in Red as Indicated in Link Below)
1. JMU (2)
4. Richmond (1)
5. Villanova (5)
7. UNH (7)
11. W&M (11)
14. Maine (15)
16. Massachusetts (16)

All of those rankings are within the same range of the other computer rankings, so I'm not sure your point.

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/GPI/2008FINALgpi.html

[Schfourteenteen]

General note to the Liberty folks.. I am sure that you have a nice program. But, you have to schedule a more difficult OCC.. I like the WV and JM games, but NCC is going to hurt you when your conference is still building. Your highest ranked opp is Lafayette at #29 and you won and JM at #30 and you lost so, being ranked at #26 seems very generous. If you want to be in the Top 20 you have to play Top 20 teams - it seems very simple to me..

I think somebody noted that SUU is 2-4 against D1 competition which is true, but they are 0-2 against FBS and 2-2 vs FCS. Plus, look at the schedule that SUU will have compared to LU:

SUU - 2 FBS, #13, #17, #19, #22, #22, #45, #48 and #50, one D-II game
LU - 1 FBS, #29, #30, #50, #54, #66, #81, #88, #118, one D-II game

At the end of the year nobody will really know how good LU is?!!?! Nobody is saying you have a bad team.. but nobody knows how to measure your performance against the Top Twenty because it is all speculation.


If Liberty played #30 JMU, they wouldn't have put a TD on us either. Dudzik tore us apart, just like he did to Richmond. Thorpe was shut down at Liberty, just like he has been since. If Dudzik is their full time uninjured QB, they sit inside the top 5 after the Richmond game, and odds are the following games would look much better.

Outside of that issue, you're absolutely right. Our conference normally runs with 1 top 35 team, two top 60 teams, and then a bunch of bottom feeders. As a rising program with 0 recognition, there are plenty of schools who will balk at playing us. You might hear the same stuff from Albany, too. It's not like the effort isn't there either. A home + home starting this year at Cal Poly fell through because CP couldn't make the trip to Lynchburg. Richmond will never play us, and W&M wants nothing to do with us at this point.

So for now, we sit with one of the best funded program with our top 20 weight room and soon to be top notch (FCS)stadium basing our playoff hopes on the one or two "real" games each year. That's not a shot at the Big South, but being in the 9th rated conference without an auto bid never helped.

How is San Diego in the top 50? I just dont get that.

UCD has scheduled 2 FBS games and one against Montana, losing all of them, as they should. They also play 1-6 Winston Salem, 2-5 Sacramento State and 2-6 Portland State. They're in the same boat as us, and our boat isn't traveling in the direction of Chattanooga.

[89Hen]

so I'm not sure your point.
Computers are horrible at ranking college football teams. xpeacex

[MacThor]

If Liberty played #30 JMU, they wouldn't have put a TD on us either. Dudzik tore us apart, just like he did to Richmond. Thorpe was shut down at Liberty, just like he has been since. If Dudzik is their full time uninjured QB, they sit inside the top 5 after the Richmond game, and odds are the following games would look much better.

Let's not get carried away with Dudzik "tearing Richmond apart." He had the beautiful TD pass, but other than that he went 2-5 for 30 yards. UR bottled him up nicely on the 2nd half opening drive.

[Green26]

Southern Utah against D-I competition. 2 losses against I-A teams, a 1-pt loss to Cal Poly and a 3-pt loss to NAU. The close losses to CP and NAU tell me that SU has to be pretty good.

San Diego St. L 35-19
Northern Arizona L 42-39
Utah State L 53-34
Texas State W 38-16
Cal Poly L 24-23
North Dakota W 35-10

[Schfourteenteen]

Chalk that up to not looking up stats. Pssssssshhhhh

However, the offense still moved better with Dudzik than Thorpe(minus the 4th Quarter drive).

And when the potential game winning drive is negated by Thorpe's 3rd turnover, I think it's safe to say the outcome would be different(not saying a W) if Dudzik was healthy.

[Schfourteenteen]

Southern Utah against D-I competition. 2 losses against I-A teams, a 1-pt loss to Cal Poly and a 3-pt loss to NAU. The close losses to CP and NAU tell me that SU has to be pretty good.

San Diego St. L 35-19
Northern Arizona L 42-39
Utah State L 53-34
Texas State W 38-16
Cal Poly L 24-23
North Dakota W 35-10

Final scores dont indicate a team's ability. Close losses especially. They could be better than NAU for all I know. They could have hit a team on a bad game, or played their minds out in another.

I dont disagree with them being a good team. Just know they aren't Top 25.

[ToTheLeft]

Let's not get carried away with Dudzik "tearing Richmond apart." He had the beautiful TD pass, but other than that he went 2-5 for 30 yards. UR bottled him up nicely on the 2nd half opening drive.

You're citing a running QB's passing stats? Weak sauce.

They had more yards, were better on third down, and Thorpe's two INT's (which wouldn't/shouldn't have happened with a healthy Dudzik) all show that Dudzik ran the offense the right way (just like he did against LU)... The kid is legit, and he was going to beat the Spiders.

[ToTheLeft]

Southern Utah against D-I competition. 2 losses against I-A teams, a 1-pt loss to Cal Poly and a 3-pt loss to NAU. The close losses to CP and NAU tell me that SU has to be pretty good.

San Diego St. L 35-19
Northern Arizona L 42-39
Utah State L 53-34
Texas State W 38-16
Cal Poly L 24-23
North Dakota W 35-10

And you think NAU is good because they "almost beat" the Griz. It's a never ending cycle of good losses that make other teams good. How about teams can be GOOD based on teams that they beat, and then their resume can be improved with good losses. Good teams don't lose 2 out of every 3 games.

[JMUNJ08]

And you think NAU is good because they "almost beat" the Griz. It's a never ending cycle of good losses that make other teams good. How about teams can be GOOD based on teams that they beat, and then their resume can be improved with good losses. Good teams don't lose 2 out of every 3 games.

Montana isn't good because they hang with tough teams. They are a playoff team because they hang in and BEAT tough teams. Until someone beats them in the BSC than everyone else is just 'good'

[tribe_pride]

Outside of that issue, you're absolutely right. Our conference normally runs with 1 top 35 team, two top 60 teams, and then a bunch of bottom feeders. As a rising program with 0 recognition, there are plenty of schools who will balk at playing us. You might hear the same stuff from Albany, too. It's not like the effort isn't there either. A home + home starting this year at Cal Poly fell through because CP couldn't make the trip to Lynchburg. Richmond will never play us, and W&M wants nothing to do with us at this point.


We just had 2 sets of home and home against Liberty from 2004 through 2007. We have always played an FBS and VMI (this year was a rare exception but continuing next year), and that leaves room for only 1 other game. We played Norfolk State the past 2 years home and home, and with ODU joining the CAA soon, it was only fair to schedule them. Don't assume that the Tribe is ducking Liberty.

[ToTheLeft]

Montana isn't good because they hang with tough teams. They are a playoff team because they hang in and BEAT tough teams. Until someone beats them in the BSC than everyone else is just 'good'

How many times can people misquote me?

Montana is good on their own since they beat good teams on a regular basis. I was talking about NAU... who people perceive as good for almost beating the Griz.

[MacThor]

You're citing a running QB's passing stats? Weak sauce.

They had more yards, were better on third down, and Thorpe's two INT's (which wouldn't/shouldn't have happened with a healthy Dudzik) all show that Dudzik ran the offense the right way (just like he did against LU)... The kid is legit, and he was going to beat the Spiders.

Dudzik had 3 carries for 3 yards. Weaker sauce. Plus, I was responding to a post that said Dudzik "tore Richmond apart." He didn't.

JMU had one good scoring drive all day. One.

Richmond had an off day, their special teams imploded, and a healthy Dudzik might have beaten the Spiders.

[89Hen]

How many times can people misquote me?
You have 720 posts, so... :p

[Native]

Southern Utah is 2-4 against D1 competition.

True dat.

On a neutral field, SUU is favored by slightly more than a field goal using the Sagarin "predictor" ratings.

[Schfourteenteen]

We just had 2 sets of home and home against Liberty from 2004 through 2007. We have always played an FBS and VMI (this year was a rare exception but continuing next year), and that leaves room for only 1 other game. We played Norfolk State the past 2 years home and home, and with ODU joining the CAA soon, it was only fair to schedule them. Don't assume that the Tribe is ducking Liberty.

I'm not assuming anything. Not saying they're ducking either. I am saying W&M wants no part in playing us. W&M doesnt need another quality opponent (especially one from a weak conference), and an OOC loss makes the playoffs that much harder through the CAA.

I always liked playing W&M, even though we lost every year. The last two games certainly were entertaining. And that spot was terrible.

[YoUDeeMan]

I'm not assuming anything. Not saying they're ducking either. I am saying W&M wants no part in playing us. W&M doesnt need another quality opponent (especially one from a weak conference),.

W&M is the real deal this year. It is Liberty that doesn't want a part of W&M...the Tribe would blast Liberty. xnodxxnodx

[Schfourteenteen]

Looking back, I'd say W+M wins. Liberty would make it a game, but W+M takes it.

But that doesnt meant Liberty walked away from the table.

[soccerguy315]

doesn't mean W&M walked away either. As someone else said, W&M just played Liberty for 4 years. I'm sure Liberty will appear on the W&M schedule again in the future.

[Schfourteenteen]

doesn't mean W&M walked away either. As someone else said, W&M just played Liberty for 4 years. I'm sure Liberty will appear on the W&M schedule again in the future.

You doubt me. :D

[Green26]

NAU would clobber Liberty. That I know.