Big Sky Power Rankings 10-26

[JALMOND]

The end of October is near (almost Halloween), which means after this week, we only have November to sort through this mess of the Big Sky. All year, Montana has stayed on top of the pile, and aside from one week, Weber State has been right on their heels. Both will meet on Saturday's scary afternoon to determine who is alive and who is dead (or are they?). Here are this week's Big Sky Conference power rankings. All are my opinions and all are open for discussion. This week (last week). BOO!!!:)

1. Montana (1)---A trap game last week? Maybe for a little bit, but the Grizzlies were able to leave Sacramento State with the win, and began to think about this week's home game with Weber State. The Grizzlies have been awfully quiet about this game all year, do they really think it is a big game?

2. Weber State (2)---The game the Wildcats had been looking forward all year was a week away and only lowly Northern Colorado stood in their way. They jumped on the Bears early and began to look forward to the rematch with Montana. The only problem was the team they left for dead sprung back to life and almost mauled the Wildcats. The Wildcats did leave with the win and can now look forward to the big game at Montana.

3. Northern Arizona (3)---While the rest of the conference were involved in some big preparations, the Jacks were quietly steamrolling over Idaho State, just like everyone else in the conference. While the two teams in front will be slugging it out, the Jacks will head on the road to face Sacramento State. They shouldn't lose too much ground, or will they?

4. Eastern Washington (4)---No Boyce, no problem for the Eagles last week as they got the win at home against a much depleted Montana State team. The Eagles had too many weapons over the badly injured Bobcats. Will they miss Boyce this weekend? They have a "home" game in Seattle against a struggling Portland State team. For as good as the Eagles have been, they have never beaten a Glanville coached team. Could this be the year?

5. Montana State (5)---Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde? More like injuries, injuries and sickness that has totally ravaged the Bobcats. Those that suited up gave Eastern Washington a gallant try last week, yet they still came up on the losing end. How many will be ready this weekend? Luckily, they stay at home this weekend and face Idaho State. Maybe a good chance to get healthy and get the win.

6. Sacramento State (6)---A slight chance for the Hornets last week to pull off the upset, playing Montana at home. They did score the same number of points as they did against Eastern Washington earlier, yet found themselves on the same losing end. It would be nice to get any win against one of the big hitters in conference. They get another shot this weekend as Northern Arizona comes to their field. Can the Hornets get it done this weekend?

7. Portland State (7)---After ending the game two weeks ago with the worst total yards since Glanville came to town, the Vikings bettered that (or should I say "worsered") last week against UC-Davis. What was sad was any type of offensive production in the second half would have been enough for the win. Now they have to head to Seattle to face Eastern Washington. Good things? They own a three game winning streak against the Eagles and they have a neutral field. Can they once again get the upset?

8. Northern Colorado (8)---What is with the Bears when they play Weber State? They found themselves down early and instead of folding, they fought back enough to throw a scare at the Wildcats. Still, close but not close enough. This week, they get to rekindle their memories of DII as they welcome current Great West member and former DII squad, South Dakota to Greeley. A good chance to get a win?

9. Idaho State (9)---What about the Bengals. It is one thing to play the games, it is another to be competitive. They have not been competitive, even after last week's game on the road at Northern Arizona. So the Jacks are one of the better teams in the conference, but the Bengals still need to have a good effort. Will they get one this week as they head to Montana State?

An indication of where exactly the teams are, as they all stayed where they were last week. UM in front, with WSU and NAU about a half step behind. EWU is on an island by themselves. MSU is beginning to feel the heat from Sac State. PSU and UNC are basically even right now (edge to PSU due to win at UNC) and ISU is a ways away from even the back of the pack.

[Native]

Montana is the only Big Sky team with a clear path to the playoffs. With SIX DI victories (and no losses) already in the bag, including THREE top 25 wins over NAU, Cal Poly and EWU, and cellar-dwellers ISU and UNC still on the menu, the Griz are odds on favorites to win the Big Sky conference title and the autobid. In fact, UM could afford to lose to Weber and Montana State, finish 8-2 DI, and still get an at-large invitation to the post-season, probably even a seed.

Weber State is the only other Big Sky team in control of their own destiny. The Wildcats' path to the BSC championship and autobid does not require any other team to lose. It "merely" requires WSU to beat Montana and Northern Arizona. WSU could even lose to Cal Poly, finish with only 7 DI wins, but still win the conference outright, along with the autobid.

Northern Arizona's path to the postseason is a bit more difficult. With only five DI victories and a loss to Montana, the Lumberjacks must win all of their remaining three FCS matchups, including both Weber and Eastern Washington. They travel to Ogden to play WSU the week after returning from their trip to Oxford to face the University of Mississippi. In order for NAU to win the Big Sky conference title outright, the 'jacks must also hope for Weber and Montana State to prevail over Montana.

Incredibly, it is still possible for five Big Sky teams (UM, WSU, NAU, EWU and MSU) to finish 6-2 in BSC conference play, if Montana falls to both Weber and Montana State, Weber beats UM and falls to NAU, NAU falls to EWU, and MSU wins out. In that case my head would hurt...

[catbob]

MSU has a decent chance of winning its next 3, then the tough matchup against the Griz, but it's at home.

MSU schedule:
ISU
@PSU
SSU
UM

Things could get real messy in the Big Sky race, but I think things will clear up in a week or two.

[Native]

MSU has a decent chance of winning its next 3, then the tough matchup against the Griz, but it's at home.

MSU schedule:
ISU
@PSU
SSU
UM

Things could get real messy in the Big Sky race, but I think things will clear up in a week or two.

Are your players healthy again? Can you craft a scenario in which the Bobcats prevail over the Griz in Bozeman?

[Silenoz]

Are your players healthy again? Can you craft a scenario in which the Bobcats prevail over the Griz in Bozeman?
The scenario is that the Cats have played us tough for 7 years. Even the last two blowouts were a lot closer than the final score (as hard as that is to imagine with a 35-3 final)

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Weber State is pretty much done. They can't afford any more losses in order to reach 7 D-I wins, and with Cal Poly, NAU, and of course UM this week still left to play... they will lose 1 of them.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I think the last game of the season between EWU and NAU will decide who gets the at large from the BSC. NAU will likely be 6-4 then, and need that last game to reach 7 D1 wins (thanks to their two BCS games). I could see Nov. 21 being a Wildcard round for the Big Sky, battling for an at-large.

[I Bleed Purple]

Weber State is pretty much done. They can't afford any more losses in order to reach 7 D-I wins, and with Cal Poly, NAU, and of course UM this week still left to play... they will lose 1 of them.

We're good enough to win all of them. We've got five D-I wins, so 7 is attainable with a loss.

And maybe I'm still down on NAU. They were a great team last year in the first half of the season and everyone was sniffing their jock, than we went down and beat them soundly. Why won't they have the same thing happen this year?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Games to Play:
NAU 5-2: @Sac, @(BCS#24)Mississippi, @(#14)Weber, (#26)EWU
EWU 5-3: PSU, BYE, @SUU, @(#21)NAU
MSU 4-3: ISU, @PSU, Sac, (#2)UM
WSU 5-3: @(#2)UM, BYE, (#21)NAU, (#18)Cal Poly

[Native]

Weber State is pretty much done. They can't afford any more losses in order to reach 7 D-I wins, and with Cal Poly, NAU, and of course UM this week still left to play... they will lose 1 of them.

It does not matter if Weber loses to Cal Poly. It only matters that the Wildcats beat UM and NAU.

[Native]

I think the last game of the season between EWU and NAU will decide who gets the at large from the BSC. NAU will likely be 6-4 then, and need that last game to reach 7 D1 wins (thanks to their two BCS games). I could see Nov. 21 being a Wildcard round for the Big Sky, battling for an at-large.

Although NAU will have a pretty good shot with 8 DI wins, seven wins will not be enough for either Eastern Washington or Northern Arizona. There will be too many 8-win teams and a couple of 7-win teams with better resumes.

Having already lost to both Montana and Weber State, EWU is in a weakened position in regard to a post season opportunity. The MSU victory still looks good for both teams, but NAU is at a disadvantage playing in Ogden the week after they travel to Ole Miss, and EWU is at a disadvantage traveling to Flagstaff.

[CrunchGriz]

Weber State is pretty much done. They can't afford any more losses in order to reach 7 D-I wins, and with Cal Poly, NAU, and of course UM this week still left to play... they will lose 1 of them.

Actually, Weber State can afford to lose one more...as long as it's the Cal Poly game and no other. Under that scenario, they would get the Big Sky autobid with a 7-4 overall record, 7-1 in the Big Sky.

Not that we're forecasting that, mind you.

[I Bleed Purple]

There's an outside shot at 7-4, 6-2 getting in, but that's a fairly unlikely scenario.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Although NAU will have a pretty good shot with 8 DI wins, seven wins will not be enough for either Eastern Washington or Northern Arizona. There will be too many 8-win teams and a couple of 7-win teams with better resumes.

Having already lost to both Montana and Weber State, EWU is in a weakened position in regard to a post season opportunity. The MSU victory still looks good for both teams, but NAU is at a disadvantage playing in Ogden the week after they travel to Ole Miss, and EWU is at a disadvantage traveling to Flagstaff.

Like I said over on CS, it's not unlikely that we get in at 8-3... we did it in 2004 and 2007 with only 7 of them wins against D-I competition. Both years we also knocked off a seed, #1 SIU in 2004, and #2 McNeese in 2007.

[Native]

Like I said over on CS, it's not unlikely that we get in at 8-3... we did it in 2004 and 2007 with only 7 of them wins against D-I competition. Both years we also knocked off a seed, #1 SIU in 2004, and #2 McNeese in 2007.

I do not doubt that Eastern Washington will perform well in the post season if given the opportunity, but I do doubt that EWU will be selected for an at-large bid.

Congrats on the NCAA lifting the post season ban. I understand that you are in a drunken delirium of excitement at the moment, but please sober up before you get hit by a bus.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I do not doubt that Eastern Washington will [perform well in the post season if given the opportunity, but I do doubt that EWU will be selected for an at-large bid.

Congrats on the NCAA liftting the post season ban. I understand that you are in a drunken delirium at the moment, but please sober up before you get hit by a bus.

I'm sober as a bird right now. Perhaps you should take off the Purple shades you have on and look at recent history. xthumbsupx

[Native]

I'm sober as a bird right now. Perhaps you should take off the Purple shades you have on and look at recent history. xthumbsupx

This year is this year. The CAA won four OOC FBS games, changing the odds for the rest of the division.

Make a case for which 8-win FCS teams will have to stand in line behind an EWU with only 7 DI wins.

[JackFan]

We're good enough to win all of them. We've got five D-I wins, so 7 is attainable with a loss.

And maybe I'm still down on NAU. They were a great team last year in the first half of the season and everyone was sniffing their jock, than we went down and beat them soundly. Why won't they have the same thing happen this year?

First of all im gonna go Lee Corso on you and say NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!!! About being good enough to win out, Weber still has to prove what kind of team they are.

Well its only obvious that lots of people are down on our guys as it reflects in the polls, and its totally understandable after the way our guys fell on their faces the last four games last season.

BUT THIS IS A NEW SEASON… we have tons of upperclassmen leadership on offense, including a senior heavy receiving core (Berry, Meadows, Sweeney) and a talented senior running back (Henderson). All want to avenge themselves for what occurred last season. They are led by a qb in Herrick who has not turned the ball over since the game ending interception he threw against Montana. The defense has had to step up under fire amidst a slew of injuries in the LB and DL ranks. This is a completely different team from last season. We finally have a qb that fits our system better, as Kriesen was more of a running qb. The rest of the offense is a year more experienced and there are a lot of young new faces on D.

we have beaten the teams we should: Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Idaho State

we have lost to the teams that we usually do lose to : #23 FBS Arizona(34-17) and #2 Montana (41-34) in a OT thriller which quite possibly could have gone a second round of OT if not for a questionable out of bounds call at the three yrd line on NAU’s first play in the extra period.

When comparing NAU and Weber State you cant help but look at the one important similarity. Montana State. Weber lost to the bobcats in Ogden at their friendly home confines. NAU convincingly beat the same bobcat team on the road in an electric homecoming atmosphere in tough weather conditions. It seems with this point that Weber is the team that has to prove themselves THIS SEASON. They have already lost to a team NAU beat plus they still have Montana coming up.

NAU has done the things they need to this season by beating the teams they should; they lost to a tough Arizona team and almost pulled of an upset against Montana which I think is proof enough that this is a different Lumberjack team. Weber State is the team at this point of the season that needs to prove themselves.

[I Bleed Purple]

Montana State also lost to a team we beat by three scores. Not really a great indicator.

[Native]

...When comparing NAU and Weber State you cant help but look at the one important similarity. Montana State. Weber lost to the bobcats in Ogden at their friendly home confines. NAU convincingly beat the same bobcat team on the road in an electric homecoming atmosphere in tough weather conditions. It seems with this point that Weber is the team that has to prove themselves THIS SEASON. They have already lost to a team NAU beat plus they still have Montana coming up.

NAU has done the things they need to this season by beating the teams they should; they lost to a tough Arizona team and almost pulled of an upset against Montana which I think is proof enough that this is a different Lumberjack team. Weber State is the team at this point of the season that needs to prove themselves.

Every team has to prove themselves, jackfan, year in and year out. Even mighty Montana must prove themselves to the Wildcats this weekend.

NAU is not being disrespected in the polls. Both NAU and WSU are about where they ought to be, and good for the Big Sky that we have four teams in most top 25 polls.

See you in Ogden as soon as you get back from Oxford. xnodx

[bpcats]

I don't think that the Cats will win out, but they have a very good shot of putting a string of wins together.

Much like last year injuries have really taken their toll on this team. And it is not like we are losing one key starter, we are talking 7-10 starters each of the last two years.

I think this team will play pissed off for the next couple of weeks. As far as the Griz game goes, does this team have a shot if we get some people back..sure. For the last couple of year turnovers and special teams have really killed us. I just think that UM is clicking and that Mariani will make a couple of special plays that will turn the game around for the Griz.

If I had to rank teams right now it would be Griz, NAU, Weber, EWU, MSU, Sac, UNC, PSU, Idaho State.

[JackFan]

Every team has to prove themselves, jackfan, year in and year out. Even mighty Montana must prove themselves to the Wildcats this weekend.

NAU is not being disrespected in the polls. Both NAU and WSU are about where they ought to be, and good for the Big Sky that we have four teams in most top 25 polls.

See you in Ogden as soon as you get back from Oxford. xnodx

When I speak of teams proving themselves I use it in the context of the big picture, not Saturday to Saturday. Of course you have to prove yourself each and every weekend, that’s called winning and losing. What I mean is that at this point of the season NAU has proven to be a much more mentally tougher team then last year, by hanging close with Montana and picking up a huge road win against Montana State. NAU has not had the emotional let down that Weber had with its loss to MSU. Using hind sight Weber should have beaten MSU, which means that Weber had a let down and now needs to prove what kind of team they are by how well they play against Montana.

As far as the polls im not saying that NAU is being disrespected, im only saying that its harder for NAU to move up compared to Montana and even Weber. Our two losses have come to extremely good talent (Arizona, Montana), while Weber has lost to what now appears to be a weaker then first thought MSU team. I just think that if NAU’s loss would have been to MSU in place of our Montana loss we probably wouldn’t be ranked in the top 25 at this point. There are certain teams which live off past glory and success when it comes to rankings in the polls, which really doesn’t mean too much until playoff selection time.

[GolfingGriz]

This year is this year. The CAA won four OOC FBS games, changing the odds for the rest of the division.

Make a case for which 8-win FCS teams will have to stand in line behind an EWU with only 7 DI wins.

Eight wins is a pretty solid bet to make the playoffs. If either NAU or EWU gets there they will join Montana in the playoffs. Weber will obviously be in if they get to 8-3 and the MSU would as well.

[Native]

Eight wins is a pretty solid bet to make the playoffs. If either NAU or EWU gets there they will join Montana in the playoffs. Weber will obviously be in if they get to 8-3 and the MSU would as well.

NAU could get to 8 DI wins but EWU and MSU cannot. Eastern Washington's win against Western Oregon does not count, nor does Montana State's win against Dixie State. The best that EWU and MSU can hope for is 7 DI wins.

[Native]

When I speak of teams proving themselves I use it in the context of the big picture, not Saturday to Saturday. Of course you have to prove yourself each and every weekend, that’s called winning and losing. What I mean is that at this point of the season NAU has proven to be a much more mentally tougher team then last year, by hanging close with Montana and picking up a huge road win against Montana State. NAU has not had the emotional let down that Weber had with its loss to MSU. Using hind sight Weber should have beaten MSU, which means that Weber had a let down and now needs to prove what kind of team they are by how well they play against Montana.

As far as the polls im not saying that NAU is being disrespected, im only saying that its harder for NAU to move up compared to Montana and even Weber. Our two losses have come to extremely good talent (Arizona, Montana), while Weber has lost to what now appears to be a weaker then first thought MSU team. I just think that if NAU’s loss would have been to MSU in place of our Montana loss we probably wouldn’t be ranked in the top 25 at this point. There are certain teams which live off past glory and success when it comes to rankings in the polls, which really doesn’t mean too much until playoff selection time.

Northern Arizona is an impressive team this year, for sure! xthumbsupx

However, you can't have it both ways with Montana State. Either you consider MSU an important team or you do not. Whatever you choose is fine with me. I think the Bobcats are one of the best teams in the country, so congrats on your victory at their place!

Everything could change this weekend, but at this point, with 6 conference games in the bag for Weber (5-1) and 5 for NAU (4-1), Weber's conference-only stats and performance is clearly better than Northern Arizona's.

So far, this year is not much different than last year for Northern Arizona:
August 30 at No. 15 Arizona State L 30-13 0-1 (0-0)
September 6 New Mexico Highlands W 68-10 1-1 (0-0)
September 20 at Southern Utah W 19-14 2-1 (0-0)
September 27 at Northern Colorado W 25-22 3-1 (1-0)
October 4 Sacramento State W 42-10 4-1 (2-0)
October 11 Portland State W 37-17 5-1 (3-0)
October 18 at Idaho State W 52-30 6-1 (4-0)

Then the second half of the season hit NAU:
October 25 Weber State L 42-14 6-2 (4-1)
November 1 at Montana L 45-10 6-3 (4-2)
November 8 Montana State L 25-23 6-4 (4-3)
November 15 at Eastern Washington L 28-13 6-5 (4-4)

[Native]

...There are certain teams which live off past glory and success when it comes to rankings in the polls...

xlolxxlolxxlolx That rules out Weber State!

[GolfingGriz]

NAU could get to 8 DI wins but EWU and MSU cannot. Eastern Washington's win against Western Oregon does not count, nor does Montana State's win against Dixie State. The best that EWU and MSU can hope for is 7 DI wins.

I'm sure what you are trying to prove. Are you saying that 8-3 MSU or EWU won't get into the playoffs?

[Walkon79]

I'm sure what you are trying to prove. Are you saying that 8-3 MSU or EWU won't get into the playoffs?

If the BSC has 3 teams finish 8-3 or better, all three will get in, IMO

[Squealofthepig]

I'm sure what you are trying to prove. Are you saying that 8-3 MSU or EWU won't get into the playoffs?

Nope, he's merely saying they can't mathematically get to eight Division I wins, which is what the playoff committee uses.

As others have pointed out, CAA's success over FBS teams clouds the at-large picture (if you're a non-CAA team), plus there are also some teams like Colgate to consider. There will probably be a very respectable number of BSC teams that are playoff-eligible, though whether they actually make the playoffs is a separate matter entirely.

[Native]

I'm sure what you are trying to prove. Are you saying that 8-3 MSU or EWU won't get into the playoffs?

Sure, an 8-3 (DI) MSU or EWU has a great shot at the playoffs, but there is ZERO chance for either team to acquire 8 DI wins this season. It is possible that MSU or EWU could earn an at-large bid with 7 DI wins, depending on what other teams acquire losses, but not likely.

The Big Sky is clearly the second-toughest conference in the Football Championship Subdivision. Our top five, inclusing MSU and EWU, can compete with anyone. I am just stating facts.

What are you trying to say, that a win against Western Oregon or Dixie State has any bearing one way or the other on whether MSU or EWU can earn an invitation to the playoffs?

[eagle1]

I have always heard that it was 7 d1 wins but only through people posting on this board so did you find the 8 d1 wins through the NCAA?

[Silenoz]

It always appeared to me to be 7 DI wins and 8 wins or more total.

[Native]

I have always heard that it was 7 d1 wins but only through people posting on this board so did you find the 8 d1 wins through the NCAA?

As has recently been posted elsewhere, 7 DI wins is the minimum required. There is a great deal of difference between the minimum required and a competitive resume, however.

[cats2506]

As has recently been posted elsewhere, 7 DI wins is the minimum required. There is a great deal of difference between the minimum required and a competitive resume, however.

8-3 with 7 DI wins two wins over top 15 teams, 2 losses to top 25 teams and an FBS team, and wining the last 4 games including a top 5 team

You dont think that would be a competitive resume?

[GolfingGriz]

I agree with the other posters who have stated that if MSU and EWU get to 8 wins(7 D1 wins), then they will be in the playoffs. Keep in mind for EWU to get to 8 they need to beat top-20 NAU and for MSU to get to 8 they need to beat top-5 Montana. If they get to 8-3 there is no way they are left of the outside looking in.

[Native]

8-3 with 7 DI wins two wins over top 15 teams, 2 losses to top 25 teams and an FBS team, and wining the last 4 games including a top 5 team

You don't think that would be a competitive resume?

Competitive, yes. Slam dunk, no.

Which team do you think will finish the season with such a resume? The Bobcats would have to hope not only to win out, but that Weber would stay in the top 15. And that would be four losses, not just three. Neither of the FBS losses were competitive, and by the end of the season, it is not a sure thing that the two FCS losses will have been against teams that finish in the top 25.

[Native]

I agree with the other posters who have stated that if MSU and EWU get to 8 wins(7 D1 wins), then they will be in the playoffs. Keep in mind for EWU to get to 8 they need to beat top-20 NAU and for MSU to get to 8 they need to beat top-5 Montana. If they get to 8-3 there is no way they are left of the outside looking in.

The Big Sky is not guaranteed an at-large invitation to the post season. The BSC at-large candidate still has to have a more competitive resume than the other at-large candidate.

Let's say it comes down to 7-4 EWU versus 7-4 Delaware for that last at-large invitation.

To get to 7 DI wins, EWU has to hope that NAU does not falter except at home against the Eagles, otherwise the Lumberjacks' top 25 status will be in jeopardy. So you would also have to hope that Weber loses to NAU and to either Cal Poly or Montana. But would a 6-5 Weber still remain in the top 25? Maybe not.

In that case, EWU would most likely have the two top 25 wins you prognosticate, but also have three losses, two of which would be to teams unlikely to have remained in the top 25.

To get to 7 DI wins, Delaware has to win 3 of 4 out of: JMU, Hofstra, Navy and Villanova. This scenario is no more unlikely than the scenario getting EWU to 7 DI wins. That would most likely give Delaware one top 5 win, one more top 25 win, and three losses, at least two of which would be to top 10 teams.

Given this scenario, which team do you think gets the at-large?

Why do you persist in counting the win over DII Western Oregon? It's like trying o augment your Golden Gloves resume by saying you beat up your sister, and it detracts from your case.

Nobody is saying that EWU is not a good team or does not have a chance at the playoffs with only 7 DI wins - only that you cannot pre-select a 7-win EWU in a vacuum. You first have to compare EWU with all the other bubble teams.

[GolfingGriz]

The Big Sky is not guaranteed an at-large invitation to the post season. The BSC at-large candidate still has to have a more competitive resume than the other at-large candidate.

Let's say it comes down to 7-4 EWU versus 7-4 Delaware for that last at-large invitation.

To get to 7 DI wins, EWU has to hope that NAU does not falter except at home against the Eagles, otherwise the Lumberjacks' top 25 status will be in jeopardy. So you would also have to hope that Weber loses to NAU and to either Cal Poly or Montana. But would a 6-5 Weber still remain in the top 25? Maybe not.

In that case, EWU would most likely have the two top 25 wins you prognosticate, but also have three losses, two of which would be to teams unlikely to have remained in the top 25.

To get to 7 DI wins, Delaware has to win 3 of 4 out of: JMU, Hofstra, Navy and Villanova. This scenario is no more unlikely than the scenario getting EWU to 7 DI wins. That would most likely give Delaware one top 5 win, one more top 25 win, and three losses, at least two of which would be to top 10 teams.

Given this scenario, which team do you think gets the at-large?

Why do you persist in counting the win over DII Western Oregon? It's like trying o augment your Golden Gloves resume by saying you beat up your sister, and it detracts from your case.

Nobody is saying that EWU is not a good team or does not have a chance at the playoffs with only 7 DI wins - only that you cannot pre-select a 7-win EWU in a vacuum. You first have to compare EWU with all the other bubble teams.

Who said anything about 7-4 EWU? I know they wont get in. Im saying that 8-3 EWU(7-3 as you like to put it) will get in. I understand how the playoff selection works. An 8-3 BSC team has always gotten in in the past and that won't change this year.

[Native]

Who said anything about 7-4 EWU? I know they wont get in. Im saying that 8-3 EWU(7-3 as you like to put it) will get in. I understand how the playoff selection works. An 8-3 BSC team has always gotten in in the past and that won't change this year.

Thanks for the correction, but answer the question. Why would the selection committee select a 7-3 EWU over a 7-3 Delaware?

[GolfingGriz]

Thanks for the correction, but answer the question. Why would the selection committee select a 7-3 EWU over a 7-3 Delaware?

Maybe because Delaware would finish 4th out of 6 in their division. And if you don't add the DII wins then you shouldn't count the FBS loses especially when its to Pac-10 Cal.

[cats2506]

Competitive, yes. Slam dunk, no.

Which team do you think will finish the season with such a resume? The Bobcats would have to hope not only to win out, but that Weber would stay in the top 15. And that would be four losses, not just three. Neither of the FBS losses were competitive, and by the end of the season, it is not a sure thing that the two FCS losses will have been against teams that finish in the top 25.

That is the senerio if the Bobcats win out. still only 1 fbs loss, and WSU and um have been ranked all year so we still have 2 quality wins. at the time of the 2 fcs losses both teams were ranked and it looks like both are definutly at least top 30 in the country.

[Native]

Maybe because Delaware would finish 4th out of 6 in their division. And if you don't add the DII wins then you shouldn't count the FBS loses especially when its to Pac-10 Cal.

This is real simple: DI wins and losses count. Other games do not count.

I happen to agree with the NCAA selection committee criteria, and think they have done a remarkably fair job over the years, but I am not preaching what I believe. I am regurgitating what the NCAA does.

No matter what you "feel" and whether or not you agree with me, the DII wins and losses do not count to the NCAA selection committee.

This is also real simple: Delaware has a harder schedule this year than either EWU or MSU.

I love my Big Sky Conference but that does not change facts.

[WrenFGun]

Not to chime in on a BSC discussion too much, but I think if EWU, NAU or MSU (or Weber) find their way to 8-3, I think they'll get in over a 7-4 CAA team. The ultimate resumes for Delaware at 7-4 (best win over JMU and Hofstra) or UMass (They'd have a win over UNH but they'd have to lose a game to Maine or Hofstra). The harder situation would come if UD got a win over Navy but lost to say, Nova and Hofstra..

Still, I'd be shocked to see a 7-4 team from any conference make it. Too much quality around the league.

The notion that UD being the 4th best team from the CAA South discounting from the playoffs is a foolish one, however.

[kalm]

Thanks for the correction, but answer the question. Why would the selection committee select a 7-3 EWU over a 7-3 Delaware?

I'll give you two CAA teams who an 8-3 EWU, MSU, or NAU could make a case against:

Delaware:

2009 Schedule/Results
DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
9/04 West Chester 1-0 (0-0) W 35-0
9/12 Richmond 1-1 (0-1) L 16-15
9/19 Delaware State 2-1 (0-1) W 27-17
9/26 @ William & Mary 2-2 (0-2) L 30-20
10/03 @ Maine 3-2 (1-2) W 27-17
10/10 Massachusetts 4-2 (2-2) W 43-27
10/17 @ Towson 5-2 (3-2) W 49-21
10/31 James Madison 12:00 PM
11/07 Hofstra 12:00 PM
11/14 @ Navy 3:30 PM
11/21 @ Villanova 3:30 PM


UMASS:

2009 Schedule/Results
DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
9/05 @ Kansas State 0-1 (0-0) L 21-17
9/12 Albany 1-1 (0-0) W 44-7
9/19 Rhode Island 2-1 (1-0) W 30-10
9/26 Stony Brook 3-1 (1-0) W 44-17
10/10 @ Delaware 3-2 (1-1) L 43-27
10/17 New Hampshire 4-2 (2-1) W 23-17
10/24 @ Richmond 4-3 (2-2) L 34-12
10/31 @ Maine 3:30 PM
11/07 Northeastern 12:00 PM
11/14 James Madison 12:00 PM
11/21 @ Hofstra 1:00 PM

Assuming they beat the teams they're supposed to and finish 8-3, they each would only have one quality win (FCS top 25 ish or win against a + 500 team). Delaware against UMASS and UMASS against UNH. That would put them at no advantage to the BSC schools who would all potentially have similar quality wins if not more)

And while the committee has established 7 DI wins to be an important criteria (I've read it before but don't recall the exact wording) in considering at-large berths, I don't recall it say anything about not taking lower division or for that matter upper division wins and losses into consideration while comparing two teams. And that's as it should be. They're smart enough to realize that wins over West Chester or Stonybrook like UD and UMASS had this year are no more meaningful than wins over Western Oregon or Dixie State - other than in initially deciding if a team is eligible for consideration.

I'm also guessing that just like during the hoops selection process, how you finish the regular season has an impact. They tend to select teams that are hot (I think this played some role for and 8-3 EWU getting an at large in '07 out of a weaker BSC).

So in this case EWU would finish the season with losses to two ranked teams and 4 straight wins including one over a ranked NAU. MSU would also finish the season with 4 straight including a win over top 5 Montana. NAU would finish with wins over ranked Weber and EWU. UMASS would finish with 4 straight but over no ranked opponents, and Delaware would finish with two straight losses.

GPI is also part of the process, and while I think this comes out in favor of the CAA as a conference, we're not even taking into consideration the other power conferences who might lose a 2nd or 3rd bid to a 3-bid BSC. For example, UNI will probably finish 8-3 with no more quality wins than the BSC teams mentioned, and with a lower conference GPI.

I'm not disagreeing with your analysis Native - you're right about it not simply being a matter of an 8-3 record. You certainly have to look at what happens elsewhere and beat out some quality teams from quality conferences with decent resume's. But I think the BSC is very good this year and could I see a number of different scenario's where EWU, NAU, and MSU get in whether as the 2nd or the
3rd BSC bid.


There's more to take into consideration than you're desribing.

[Native]

I'll give you two CAA teams who an 8-3 EWU, MSU, or NAU could make a case against:

Delaware:

2009 Schedule/Results
DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
9/04 West Chester 1-0 (0-0) W 35-0
9/12 Richmond 1-1 (0-1) L 16-15
9/19 Delaware State 2-1 (0-1) W 27-17
9/26 @ William & Mary 2-2 (0-2) L 30-20
10/03 @ Maine 3-2 (1-2) W 27-17
10/10 Massachusetts 4-2 (2-2) W 43-27
10/17 @ Towson 5-2 (3-2) W 49-21
10/31 James Madison 12:00 PM
11/07 Hofstra 12:00 PM
11/14 @ Navy 3:30 PM
11/21 @ Villanova 3:30 PM


UMASS:

2009 Schedule/Results
DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
9/05 @ Kansas State 0-1 (0-0) L 21-17
9/12 Albany 1-1 (0-0) W 44-7
9/19 Rhode Island 2-1 (1-0) W 30-10
9/26 Stony Brook 3-1 (1-0) W 44-17
10/10 @ Delaware 3-2 (1-1) L 43-27
10/17 New Hampshire 4-2 (2-1) W 23-17
10/24 @ Richmond 4-3 (2-2) L 34-12
10/31 @ Maine 3:30 PM
11/07 Northeastern 12:00 PM
11/14 James Madison 12:00 PM
11/21 @ Hofstra 1:00 PM

Assuming they beat the teams they're supposed to and finish 8-3, they each would only have one quality win (FCS top 25 ish or win against a + 500 team). Delaware against UMASS and UMASS against UNH. That would put them at no advantage to the BSC schools who would all potentially have similar quality wins if not more)

And while the committee has established 7 DI wins to be an important criteria (I've read it before but don't recall the exact wording) in considering at-large berths, I don't recall it say anything about not taking lower division or for that matter upper division wins and losses into consideration while comparing two teams. And that's as it should be. They're smart enough to realize that wins over West Chester or Stonybrook like UD and UMASS had this year are no more meaningful than wins over Western Oregon or Dixie State - other than in initially deciding if a team is eligible for consideration.

I'm also guessing that just like during the hoops selection process, how you finish the regular season has an impact. They tend to select teams that are hot (I think this played some role for and 8-3 EWU getting an at large in '07 out of a weaker BSC).

So in this case EWU would finish the season with losses to two ranked teams and 4 straight wins including one over a ranked NAU. MSU would also finish the season with 4 straight including a win over top 5 Montana. NAU would finish with wins over ranked Weber and EWU. UMASS would finish with 4 straight but over no ranked opponents, and Delaware would finish with two straight losses.

GPI is also part of the process, and while I think this comes out in favor of the CAA as a conference, we're not even taking into consideration the other power conferences who might lose a 2nd or 3rd bid to a 3-bid BSC. For example, UNI will probably finish 8-3 with no more quality wins than the BSC teams mentioned, and with a lower conference GPI.

I'm not disagreeing with your analysis Native - you're right about it not simply being a matter of an 8-3 record. You certainly have to look at what happens elsewhere and beat out some quality teams from quality conferences with decent resume's. But I think the BSC is very good this year and could I see a number of different scenario's where EWU, NAU, and MSU get in whether as the 2nd or the
3rd BSC bid.


There's more to take into consideration than you're describing.


Well geez, kalm, I guess we don't disagree then! Especially the fact that this year, the Big Sky is stronger than the Missouri Valley and much stronger than any other conference except for the CAA. xthumbsupx

(I would love it, but can't see that 3rd bid to the BSC, though.)

[I Bleed Purple]

We're good enough to win all of them. We've got five D-I wins, so 7 is attainable with a loss.

And maybe I'm still down on NAU. They were a great team last year in the first half of the season and everyone was sniffing their jock, than we went down and beat them soundly. Why won't they have the same thing happen this year?

Hate to bring this into mention, but misery loves company, so again, NAU's fall begins in Sacramento.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'll give you two CAA teams who an 8-3 EWU, MSU, or NAU could make a case against:

Delaware:

2009 Schedule/Results
DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
9/04 West Chester 1-0 (0-0) W 35-0
9/12 Richmond 1-1 (0-1) L 16-15
9/19 Delaware State 2-1 (0-1) W 27-17
9/26 @ William & Mary 2-2 (0-2) L 30-20
10/03 @ Maine 3-2 (1-2) W 27-17
10/10 Massachusetts 4-2 (2-2) W 43-27
10/17 @ Towson 5-2 (3-2) W 49-21
10/31 James Madison 12:00 PM
11/07 Hofstra 12:00 PM
11/14 @ Navy 3:30 PM
11/21 @ Villanova 3:30 PM


UMASS:

2009 Schedule/Results
DATE OPPONENT W-L (CONF) RESULT
9/05 @ Kansas State 0-1 (0-0) L 21-17
9/12 Albany 1-1 (0-0) W 44-7
9/19 Rhode Island 2-1 (1-0) W 30-10
9/26 Stony Brook 3-1 (1-0) W 44-17
10/10 @ Delaware 3-2 (1-1) L 43-27
10/17 New Hampshire 4-2 (2-1) W 23-17
10/24 @ Richmond 4-3 (2-2) L 34-12
10/31 @ Maine 3:30 PM
11/07 Northeastern 12:00 PM
11/14 James Madison 12:00 PM
11/21 @ Hofstra 1:00 PM



Hate to bring this into mention, but misery loves company, so again, NAU's fall begins in Sacramento.

Which works out great for EWU! :D

A bunch of other bubble teams fell today, leaving EWU in a GREAT spot to grab an at large if they win out. Weber, NAU, Delaware, UMass, Cal Poly, and UC-Davis all lost today. xthumbsupx

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Correct Pick
Incorrect Pick
Actual Score
(-123) = Difference between predicted and actual point spread
APSE = Average Point Spread Error
_________________________________________________

ISU 10 @ 32 MSU
ISU 10 @ 41 MSU (-9)

NAU 35 @ 30 Sac State
NAU 24 @ 27 Sac State (-8)

PSU 30 vs 42 EWU
PSU 10 vs 47 EWU (-25)

SD 31 @ 24 UNC
SD 17 @ 21 UNC (-11)

WSU 34 @ 42 UM
WSU 10 @ 31 UM (-13)
_________________________________________________

This week: 3-2
Last week: 5-0
Overall: 40-10
APSE this week: 13.2 pts
APSE last week: 5.3 pts
APSE overall: 11.4 pts

Well, me and Jalmond split to go 3-2 on the week. I still have time to catch up. I knew Sac was capable of the upset today, and I'm glad they proved me wrong. I was a little surprised how much Higgin's & co. choked against Montana though. South Dakota came real close to beating UNC, but no cigar. Congrats to the Bears for their 3rd win this season! Out of the cellar and on the rise.

All in all though, I'm extremely happy about the way the games turned out today... not only in the Big Sky, but around the FCS. Most of the teams on the bubble for receiving an at large bid lost today: NAU, Weber, Cal Poly, UC-Davis, UMass, and Delaware. Eastern made a statement by winning big and gets a week to rest up before heading to a dangerous Southern Utah team.

[I Bleed Purple]

As much as I don't like doing this. You're way off on the Weber score there.

EDIT: You're also in the wrong thread.

Lay off the sauce at least until 7 PM your time, SE.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

As much as I don't like doing this. You're way off on the Weber score there.

EDIT: You're also in the wrong thread.

Lay off the sauce at least until 7 PM your time, SE.

Darn. xlolxxrotatehxxsmiley_wix

It's Halloween, and all the teams I wanted to win today did so!













It's my party, and I can drink if I want to, drink if I want to... xthumbsupx




Edit: Plus, my god pulls beers out of his hat, not golden plates. xlolx