Playoff Prognostications - 10/25

[TexasTerror]

Again, I'm making the effort - throw me a bracket and show me what you think!

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Elon
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
McNeese State

Bracket

South Carolina State @ (1) Richmond
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Villanova
Eastern Illinois @ (4) Southern Illinois

New Hampshire @ Northern Iowa
Florida A&M @ (3) Stephen F. Austin

Elon @ McNeese State
South Dakota State @ (2) Montana

Last Teams In

Northern Iowa - At 5-3, the schedule ahead is favorable with YSU and WIU at home before traveling to Illinois St. I think UNI can win all three. Last two games were losses, but that was SDSU and SIU, who are locks.

Florida A&M - Would the committee take a MEAC team with a 9-2 mark with the lone losses to FBS Miami and a MEAC AQ in SCST? Over a slew of 7-4 teams, yes.

Bubble Teams

Albany - Props to the Great Danes for playing up with three toughies to start. Had Albany picked up one of those two losses (at Ga Southern or at UMass), perhaps this discussion would be different.

Cal Poly/UC-Davis - At 3-3 in Div I games, either of these squads would have to win out and that's not possible becasue they hook up on Nov. 7. Even then, hard pressed to get in.

Central Connecticut State - Poor GPI. Lone lone was to William & Mary. A close call at Bryant this past week.

Delaware - 4-2 in Div I games with four remaining. End season with road games at Navy and at Villanova. They may be in a position where they need to beat Navy.

Furman - Has three tough games (Appy, at Auburn, at Ga Southern). Hard pressed to reach seven wins now that they have lost to Citadel.

Georgia Southern - No room for a 7-4 SoCon team and even that would be tough to come by with games at Samford, vs Furman and vs Citadel left.

Lafayette - Games vs Colgate and at Holy Cross remain. The Leopards' best path to the playoffs is the AQ and still control destiny.

Liberty - Even with a 9-2 record, the Flames should be left out. They lost against a James Madison team at home that has not proven to be a top tier opponent. GPI just won't cut it.

Massachusetts - UMass is 4-3 and should be favored in the remaining four games. They are clearly on the ropes as 7-4 this year may not cut it and no CAA game is going to me a tap-in.

Missouri State - A 5-3 mark with three games remaining. Win all three, we may see the Bears in the playoffs. Would be hard to ignore an 8-3 team with a win over SIU. No luck at 7-4.

Northern Arizona - 5-2 with all Div I wins. Has FBS game at Ole Miss, plus road trips to Sac St and Weber State. Finish vs EWU. Like Weber State, a tough slate of games. If they get 3 of 4, they shoud be in with a lone FCS loss to Montana.

Southeastern La. - Worth keeping an eye on but would need to win AQ to make the field. Two sub-Div I games hurt the slate and the Lions can thank Alcorn State for that.

Weber State - Not sure a 7-4 Weber State team gets in. Plays at Montana this week before hosting NAU and Cal Poly. Tough stretch. Wins out, gets to 8-3 and gets AQ by virtue of head-to-head win over Griz.

Youngstown State - Road only gets tougher. SDSU, at UNI, vs ILST and then at NDSU. At 4-3, the Penguins better coast a winning streak to the finish line.

[DSUrocks07]

Again, I'm making the effort - throw me a bracket and show me what you think!

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Elon
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
McNeese State

Bracket

South Carolina State @ (1) Richmond
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Villanova
Eastern Illinois @ (4) Southern Illinois

New Hampshire @ Northern Iowa
Florida A&M @ (3) Stephen F. Austin

Elon @ McNeese State
South Dakota State @ (2) Montana

Last Teams In

Northern Iowa - At 5-3, the schedule ahead is favorable with YSU and WIU at home before traveling to Illinois St. I think UNI can win all three. Last two games were losses, but that was SDSU and SIU, who are locks.

Florida A&M - Would the committee take a MEAC team with a 9-2 mark with the lone losses to FBS Miami and a MEAC AQ in SCST? Over a slew of 7-4 teams, yes.

Bubble Teams

Albany - Props to the Great Danes for playing up with three toughies to start. Had Albany picked up one of those two losses (at Ga Southern or at UMass), perhaps this discussion would be different.

Cal Poly/UC-Davis - At 3-3 in Div I games, either of these squads would have to win out and that's not possible becasue they hook up on Nov. 7. Even then, hard pressed to get in.

Central Connecticut State - Poor GPI. Lone lone was to William & Mary. A close call at Bryant this past week.

Delaware - 4-2 in Div I games with four remaining. End season with road games at Navy and at Villanova. They may be in a position where they need to beat Navy.

Furman - Has three tough games (Appy, at Auburn, at Ga Southern). Hard pressed to reach seven wins now that they have lost to Citadel.

Georgia Southern - No room for a 7-4 SoCon team and even that would be tough to come by with games at Samford, vs Furman and vs Citadel left.

Lafayette - Games vs Colgate and at Holy Cross remain. The Leopards' best path to the playoffs is the AQ and still control destiny.

Liberty - Even with a 9-2 record, the Flames should be left out. They lost against a James Madison team at home that has not proven to be a top tier opponent. GPI just won't cut it.

Massachusetts - UMass is 4-3 and should be favored in the remaining four games. They are clearly on the ropes as 7-4 this year may not cut it and no CAA game is going to me a tap-in.

Missouri State - A 5-3 mark with three games remaining. Win all three, we may see the Bears in the playoffs. Would be hard to ignore an 8-3 team with a win over SIU. No luck at 7-4.

Northern Arizona - 5-2 with all Div I wins. Has FBS game at Ole Miss, plus road trips to Sac St and Weber State. Finish vs EWU. Like Weber State, a tough slate of games. If they get 3 of 4, they shoud be in with a lone FCS loss to Montana.

Southeastern La. - Worth keeping an eye on but would need to win AQ to make the field. Two sub-Div I games hurt the slate and the Lions can thank Alcorn State for that.

Weber State - Not sure a 7-4 Weber State team gets in. Plays at Montana this week before hosting NAU and Cal Poly. Tough stretch. Wins out, gets to 8-3 and gets AQ by virtue of head-to-head win over Griz.

Youngstown State - Road only gets tougher. SDSU, at UNI, vs ILST and then at NDSU. At 4-3, the Penguins better coast a winning streak to the finish line.

I can see it now. xsmhx

"See see see I told you the MEAC sucks!!!!!!!1!111 when will they ever win a damn playoff game lololololol"

xrolleyesx
Its kinda hard to win a playoff game when you have to play the defending national champion and/or #1 seed.

I still think SC State will host W&M. UNI isn't making the playoffs. Nova gets a seed over SFA. UNH will travel to App. And Liberty will play Richmond in the first round. xpeacex

[appfan2008]

I like it!... finally some app respect...

[danefan]

I think this is pretty close. There could be some movement in the at-larges with flipping around UMass for UNI or SDSU. But other than that, I agree....for once.

[WestCoastAggie]

Here are my prognostications with four weeks left.:

SEEDS
1. Ricmond – CAA AQ
2. Montana – Big Sky AQ
3.Southern Ill. – MVFC AQ
4.Villanova – CAA At Large

NON SEED AQ'S & At Large Berths
Holy Cross – PL AQ
Elon – So Con AQ
South Carolina St – MEAC AQ
Stephen F. Austin – SLC AQ
East. Ill.– OVC AQ

New Hampshire – CAA At Large
William & Mary – CAA At Large
South Dakota State – MVFC At Large
Northern Iowa – MVFC At Large
Appalachian St. - So Con At Large
Northern Arizona – Big Sky At Large
McNeese St. - SLC At Large



CAA – 4, MVFC – 3, Big Sky – 2, SLC – 2, So. Con – 2, MEAC – 1, PL – 1, OVC - 1

First Round Games

Holy Cross - PL Vs. (1) Richmond - CAA

SC State. - MEAC Vs William & Mary - CAA

McNeese St. - SLC Vs. (2) Montana - Big Sky

SF Austin - SLC Vs. SD State - MVFC

East Ill. - OVC Vs. (3)Southern Ill. - MVFC

Northern AZ - Big Sky Vs. Northern Iowa - MVFC

Elon - So Con Vs. (4)Villanova - CAA

App St. Son Vs. New Hampshire - CAA

[TexasTerror]

I like it!... finally some app respect...

I told you guys how it was going to fall - that you would have to get a win or two more to really put yourselves in position to get off my bubble. Just too many bumps in the road that had to be overcome.

[WrenFGun]

...yikes, the field is thinning out. I wouldn't have UNI in. Simply don't have a quality win on the schedule, though still probably better than FAMU. I'd have UMass in, however. They're the favorites in their final 4 games and they're in if they win out with a win over UNH.

[TexasTerror]

...yikes, the field is thinning out. I wouldn't have UNI in. Simply don't have a quality win on the schedule, though still probably better than FAMU. I'd have UMass in, however. They're the favorites in their final 4 games and they're in if they win out with a win over UNH.

For UMass -- too many games left and too many possible chances for a loss. At 7-4, they're on the sidelines most likely.

[B&G]

Alternate take...

Elon @ (1) Richmond* (precedent: '08 Wofford @ JMU)
Northern Arizona @ Stephen F Austin* (prec: '03 NAU @ McNeese)

South Carolina St* @ (4) Appalachian St* (prec: '08 SCSU @ ASU)
William & Mary @ Northern Iowa (prec: 07-08 CAA @ UNI)

Eastern Illinois* @ (3) Southern Illinois* (prec: 05,07 EIU @ SIU)
Holy Cross* @ New Hampshire (distance)

South Dakota St @ (2) Montana*
McNeese St @ Villanova (home team is a tossup)

* = AQ

[WrenFGun]

Alternate take...

Elon @ (1) Richmond* (precedent: '08 Wofford @ JMU)
Northern Arizona @ Stephen F Austin* (prec: '03 NAU @ McNeese)

South Carolina St* @ (4) Appalachian St* (prec: '08 SCSU @ ASU)
William & Mary @ Northern Iowa (prec: 07-08 CAA @ UNI)

Eastern Illinois* @ (3) Southern Illinois* (prec: 05,07 EIU @ SIU)
Holy Cross* @ New Hampshire (distance)

South Dakota St @ (2) Montana*
McNeese St @ Villanova (home team is a tossup)

* = AQ

Where is the precedent for App St. getting an AQ with two losses? There is a fair chance (W&M, Nova, UNH, SDSU) that you may see a 1 loss team available, and they'll get the seed considering the better quality of wins/resume.

[Houndawg]

I'm not so sure that Montana gets the #2 seed over SIU if they both were to win out.

[appst97]

Where is the precedent for App St. getting an AQ with two losses? There is a fair chance (W&M, Nova, UNH, SDSU) that you may see a 1 loss team available, and they'll get the seed considering the better quality of wins/resume.

2005, An 8-3 App St team was the no2 seed over FU that had beaten them in the regular season. It would be tough to keep a 9-2 (8-0) Socon Champ out of seed consideration.

[WrenFGun]

2005, An 8-3 App St team was the no2 seed over FU that had beaten them in the regular season. It would be tough to keep a 9-2 (8-0) Socon Champ out of seed consideration.

Suppose it's possible...but i don't see where App. State's resume (quality win over Elon, hypothetically) would compare to a 10-1 UNH (wins over Ball State, 'Nova and W&M) or the 10-1 versions of W&M or 'Nova, considering they'd have wins over Richmond. CAA deserves two seeds this year, IMO. The CAA projections are all best case, obviously.

[appst97]

I can see it now. xsmhx

"See see see I told you the MEAC sucks!!!!!!!1!111 when will they ever win a damn playoff game lololololol"

xrolleyesx
Its kinda hard to win a playoff game when you have to play the defending national champion and/or #1 seed.

I still think SC State will host W&M. UNI isn't making the playoffs. Nova gets a seed over SFA. UNH will travel to App. And Liberty will play Richmond in the first round. xpeacex

I agree with you, the MEAC seems to get the raw deal. I think their proximity to the SoCon and the CAA makes it very easy for the commitee to send the MEAC champ to a seed from one of those conferences. to steal a line from Godfather, SCSt needs to make the NCAA a bid 'they cannot refuse'

[appst97]

Suppose it's possible...but i don't see where App. State's resume (quality win over Elon, hypothetically) would compare to a 10-1 UNH (wins over Ball State, 'Nova and W&M) or the 10-1 versions of W&M or 'Nova, considering they'd have wins over Richmond. CAA deserves two seeds this year, IMO. The CAA projections are all best case, obviously.

A 9 game winning streak, no losses since mid-September and (possibly) over 600 yds offense a game. That would be a tough resume to beat

[Dane96]

For UMass -- too many games left and too many possible chances for a loss. At 7-4, they're on the sidelines most likely.

After this weeks debacle against Richmond, I would say that is correct. Big losses to Richmond and Delaware arent helping.

Your assessment is spot on, except I am in the growing minority that is both shocked by the latest play from UNI...and of the belief they wont make it at this point.

I still dont see they hype with FAMU...but that's just me.

[B&G]

Suppose it's possible...but i don't see where App. State's resume (quality win over Elon, hypothetically) would compare to a 10-1 UNH (wins over Ball State, 'Nova and W&M) or the 10-1 versions of W&M or 'Nova, considering they'd have wins over Richmond. CAA deserves two seeds this year, IMO. The CAA projections are all best case, obviously.

Obviously I'm not going with best case scenarios for all of the teams. I had W&M over UNH and losing to Richmond. Which would have UNH and The Tribe with two FCS losses and ASU with one FCS and one FBS loss. Also consider that teams that finish well get a bump and in my (optimistic) scenario, ASU would have won 9 straight.

[Cocky]

Here are my prognostications with four weeks left.:

SEEDS
1. Ricmond – CAA AQ
2. Montana – Big Sky AQ
3.Southern Ill. – MVFC AQ
4.Villanova – CAA At Large

NON SEED AQ'S & At Large Berths
Holy Cross – PL AQ
Elon – So Con AQ
South Carolina St – MEAC AQ
Stephen F. Austin – SLC AQ
East. KY – OVC AQ

New Hampshire – CAA At Large
William & Mary – CAA At Large
South Dakota State – MVFC At Large
Northern Iowa – MVFC At Large
Appalachian St. - So Con At Large
Northern Arizona – Big Sky At Large
McNeese St. - SLC At Large



CAA – 4, MVFC – 3, Big Sky – 2, SLC – 2, So. Con – 2, MEAC – 1, PL – 1, OVC - 1

First Round Games

Holy Cross - PL Vs. (1) Richmond - CAA

SC State. - MEAC Vs William & Mary - CAA

McNeese St. - SLC Vs. (2) Montana - Big Sky

SF Austin - SLC Vs. SD State - MVFC

East KY. - OVC Vs. (3)Southern Ill. - MVFC

Northern AZ - Big Sky Vs. Northern Iowa - MVFC

Elon - So Con Vs. (4)Villanova - CAA

App St. Son Vs. New Hampshire - CAA

EKU will not be the AQ - They lost again this weekend to AP.

[WrenFGun]

Obviously I'm not going with best case scenarios for all of the teams. I had W&M over UNH and losing to Richmond. Which would have UNH and The Tribe with two FCS losses and ASU with one FCS and one FBS loss. Also consider that teams that finish well get a bump and in my (optimistic) scenario, ASU would have won 9 straight.

...Heh, just for the ones that are convenient, eh? I think if a CAA team finsihes 10-1 they'll get that seed.

The seeds look pretty clear to me right now. Richmond, Montana and SIU/SDSU winner look strong to get one, with the 4th going to any CAA team that finishes 10-1 (and then you open the what-if's with APP, etc..). I kind of have to think if Elon goes 10-1 they'll get it regardless of a 10-1 CAA team for balance, but I don't really know. It'll work itself out.

[WestCoastAggie]

EKU will not be the AQ - They lost again this weekend to AP. Thanks!

[mango43]

I think this is pretty close. There could be some movement in the at-larges with flipping around UMass for UNI or SDSU. But other than that, I agree....for once.

Not sure why you would leave SDSU out right now, they are tied for first in the MVFC and have SIU at home. UNI I can see, but not SDSU

[Ud1Hens]

I don't want to come off ignorant but what has FAMU done that warrants even a consideration for playoffs. Their resume consists of wins over bad teams, an obvious loss to a Top 20 Miami team and a drubbing by the only team on their schedule that would have been a marquee win. Just because you finish 9-2 doesn't = playoffs...you have to beat at least someone halfway decent. I can't see letting them in over a MVC team or an 8-3 CAA team with two top 15 wins and/or an FBS win.

[WrenFGun]

...considering what happened to Norfolk State a few years ago (UNH at 7-4 made it over them), I would expect they'd be left in the cold for say, an 8-3 UNI. It's just a matter of who's available for selection.

[danefan]

Not sure why you would leave SDSU out right now, they are tied for first in the MVFC and have SIU at home. UNI I can see, but not SDSU

As of right now I would agree with you. I was just pointing out that there could easily be a movement like that in the last 4 weeks. As of now though, UNI would be the bubble at-large for the MVFC.xthumbsupx

[danefan]

Here's the rub with FAMU and Liberty:

Everyone seems to agree that neither Albany nor Central Ct. has a chance right? That's the sentiment on this board at least, isn't it?

Well if that's the case, then how can anyone think that FAMU or Liberty have a chance? They'll be in the exact same spot at the end of the season.

FAMU will likely be 9-2 with a loss to SCSU and a drubbing by Miami.
Liberty will be at 9-2 with a loss to what appears to be a sub-500 JMU and West Virginia.
Albany will be 9-2 with a last-second loss to Georgia Southern and a drubbing against UMass.
Central could be 10-1 with a loss at W&M.

Only one team in that entire group will have a Top 25 win and that wouldn't include a win over a team in the top 25 at the end of the season. And that would be Albany over Maine, which was a Top 25 team at that time.

I cannot see how any of these teams get in. No real good wins for anyone. I just don't think that's enough.

The only saving grace liberty may have is that they played tough against WVU. There isn't really any precedent for Committee commending tough losses though. They're more likely to commend a big win than a close loss (a la UNH in 2007).

[tribe_pride]

Yeah kind of confused about FAMU because records of the teams they beat and their Sagain ranks.

They have beaten 2-4 (184), 1-6 (226), 2-5 (228), 3-4 (202), and 3-4 (180). They still have to play 5-2 (194), 4-3 (210), 3-4 (208), and 2-5 (224)

I know that Sagarin is not the end all but FAMU's strength of schedule is no where close to good enough to get an at-large. They weren't going to beat Miami but with their schedule, they had to beat SC St. to get in to the playoffs this year.

[slostang]

Bubble Teams


Cal Poly/UC-Davis - At 3-3 in Div I games, either of these squads would have to win out and that's not possible becasue they hook up on Nov. 7. Even then, hard pressed to get in.


I do agree that Cal Poly is a bubble team, but if they win out they should be in. Cal Poly is 3-1 vs the FCS with their only loss coming on the road to #2 Montana, a game they had the lead for three quarters. Cal Poly also handed South Dakota State their only loss, a team that is 5-0 in the MVC. If Cal Poly wins out they will also have a win over Weber State and will be 8-3 with 7 DI wins. Their other two losses are to FBS programs. Just my $.02.

[danefan]

I do agree that Cal Poly is a bubble team, but if they win out they should be in. Cal Poly is 3-1 vs the FCS with their only loss coming on the road to #2 Montana, a game they had the lead for three quarters. Cal Poly also handed South Dakota State their only loss, a team that is 5-0 in the MVC. If Cal Poly wins out they will also have a win over Weber State and will be 8-3 with 7 DI wins. Their other two losses are to FBS programs. Just my $.02.

Cal Poly would have a better resume at 7-3 (DI) than Liberty at 8-2 DI.

[crusader11]

Surprised Colgate isn't on the bubble TT.

CCSU beats Bryant by a point...pretty much solidifies for me they are not a Playoff team.

[danefan]

Surprised Colgate isn't on the bubble TT.

CCSU beats Bryant by a point...pretty much solidifies for me they are not a Playoff team.

Colgate beats Princeton in OT. Pretty much soldified for me they are not a Playoff team. xpeacex

And, BTW, I agree with you on Central.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

Assuming UNH takes care of business at home (Northeastern, URI, Maine AND upsets W&M on the road, the 'Cats finish 10-1. If so, the NCAA will have no choice, but to give UNH a Top 4 seed, thus establishing venerable old, dumpy Cowell Stadium as a home site -- possibly through the st two (or maybe three) rounds. Won't that cause some twisting of the knickers among the cognicenti out in Kansas, ....? xrotatehx

Maybe there will be an 8" inch snowstorm thrown in for good measure, .... xlolx

[RabidRabbit]

I do agree that Cal Poly is a bubble team, but if they win out they should be in. Cal Poly is 3-1 vs the FCS with their only loss coming on the road to #2 Montana, a game they had the lead for three quarters. Cal Poly also handed South Dakota State their only loss, a team that is 5-0 in the MVC. If Cal Poly wins out they will also have a win over Weber State and will be 8-3 with 7 DI wins. Their other two losses are to FBS programs. Just my $.02.

Cal Poly with win out should be in. To pick on UNI, would UNI, with no top 25 wins at 8-3 be better than the GWFC undefeated champ, with win over top 10 SDSU? If I was choosing, the answer would be no. xtwocentsx

[RabidRabbit]

Not sure why you would leave SDSU out right now, they are tied for first in the MVFC and have SIU at home. UNI I can see, but not SDSU

Assuming that SDSU is undefeated MoValley champ (with SIU at Brookings, good chance) would a 9-2 (L @ Cal Poly, @ Minn) be a seed?

[89rabbit]

Having seen both teams play in person, IMHO UNI is a better team the Cal-Poly.

[slostang]

Having seen both teams play in person, IMHO UNI is a better team the Cal-Poly.

Better team or better offense?

[TexasTerror]

Alternate take...

Elon @ (1) Richmond* (precedent: '08 Wofford @ JMU)
Northern Arizona @ Stephen F Austin* (prec: '03 NAU @ McNeese)

South Carolina St* @ (4) Appalachian St* (prec: '08 SCSU @ ASU)
William & Mary @ Northern Iowa (prec: 07-08 CAA @ UNI)

Eastern Illinois* @ (3) Southern Illinois* (prec: 05,07 EIU @ SIU)
Holy Cross* @ New Hampshire (distance)

South Dakota St @ (2) Montana*
McNeese St @ Villanova (home team is a tossup)

* = AQ

Do you think 'Nova can outbid McNeese? Pokes do pack'em in. Would have to check the Wildcats' attendance...

SFA vs NAU would be a great matchup! I bet the committee would love to see LUMBERJACKS vs LUMBERJACKS! ;)

Elon going to Richmond - that'd better not occur. I see a Gateway team (i.e. SDSU traveling to Montana).

[aggiemba]

If Poly is in then I can't see why Davis isn't part of the discussion.

[TexasTerror]

If Poly is in then I can't see why Davis isn't part of the discussion.

You two got lumped together. You really have no point in being part of the discussion, but I knew until you were eliminated, if I did not include you guys - we'd see an influx of posts...

[SumItUp]

If Poly is in then I can't see why Davis isn't part of the discussion.

Both Cal Poly and UC Davis must win each of their remaining games to even reach 7 D1 wins needed for consideration. Since the two teams play each other on November 7th, it will be impossible for both to be in consideration for an at-large bid at the end of the season.

[danefan]

Both Cal Poly and UC Davis must win each of their remaining games to even reach 7 D1 wins needed for consideration. Since the two teams play each other on November 7th, it will be impossible for both to be in consideration for an at-large bid at the end of the season.

Exactly and if Davis beats Cal Poly, Davis will be relying solely on one quality win an at-large (Cal Poly) which may lose some steam if Poly ends up 5-6 or 6-5.

If Poly wins out they'll have solid wins over Weber St. and SDSU on their resume.

[R.A.]

Here's the rub with FAMU and Liberty:

Everyone seems to agree that neither Albany nor Central Ct. has a chance right? That's the sentiment on this board at least, isn't it?

Well if that's the case, then how can anyone think that FAMU or Liberty have a chance? They'll be in the exact same spot at the end of the season.

FAMU will likely be 9-2 with a loss to SCSU and a drubbing by Miami.
Liberty will be at 9-2 with a loss to what appears to be a sub-500 JMU and West Virginia.


Wait... how is a drubbing by a sub .500 squad, the same as a 35-20 loss to a Top Ten Automatic Qualifier??

[R.A.]

...considering what happened to Norfolk State a few years ago (UNH at 7-4 made it over them), I would expect they'd be left in the cold for say, an 8-3 UNI. It's just a matter of who's available for selection.

But lets use that logic.

New Hampshire proved in the first round that they did not deserve to be there over the qualified MEAC NSU Spartans.

[MSUBear42]

Missouri State - A 5-3 mark with three games remaining. Win all three, we may see the Bears in the playoffs. Would be hard to ignore an 8-3 team with a win over SIU. No luck at 7-4.





This makes me :)

[blue4gold]

You two got lumped together. You really have no point in being part of the discussion, but I knew until you were eliminated, if I did not include you guys - we'd see an influx of posts...

3-1 against FCS teams with our only FCS loss being by 1 td to Montana. If we win out, we'll be 7-1 against FCS.... playing in the 2nd highest ranked FCS conference. In all fairness, if we win out, I don't see why we shouldn't be in discussions.

If UC Davis or Cal Poly win out, we MUST be in discussions.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

But lets use that logic.

New Hampshire proved in the first round that they did not deserve to be there over the qualified MEAC NSU Spartans.

WHAT???????


A three point loss AT the number seed on a TD with 7 seconds to play????!!!

NSU was going to go into UNI and win?

[R.A.]

WHAT???????


A three point loss AT the number seed on a TD with 7 seconds to play????!!!

NSU was going to go into UNI and win?

I'm mistaken.

They came close to defeating Northern Iowa.

My bad.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I'm mistaken.

They came close to defeating Northern Iowa.

My bad.

xpeacex

[malibudude]

Assuming that SDSU is undefeated MoValley champ (with SIU at Brookings, good chance) would a 9-2 (L @ Cal Poly, @ Minn) be a seed?

SDSU should not be that big of an underdog against the Goofs. If you knock off SIU in Brookings and Minnesota stays on current form...heck you might even be favored.

[blukeys]

I can see it now. xsmhx

"See see see I told you the MEAC sucks!!!!!!!1!111 when will they ever win a damn playoff game lololololol"

xrolleyesx
Its kinda hard to win a playoff game when you have to play the defending national champion and/or #1 seed.

I still think SC State will host W&M. UNI isn't making the playoffs. Nova gets a seed over SFA. UNH will travel to App. And Liberty will play Richmond in the first round. xpeacex

Now you are absolutely making stuff up.

The ONLY time the MEAC team faced a defending National Champion OR #1 seed in the last 6 years was last year with ASU and SCSU.

Let's review the more recent history of MEAC continuous futility.

2007: MEAC representative is clobbered by unseeded team. (I don't think we need to go there.)
2006: MEAC Representative loses at home to an unseeded team.
2005: MEAC proves they are the masters of hyping the one decent team in their conference in getting a top 4 seed and a home game. The team is manhandled by an unseeded team.
2004: MEAC loses to a team that is seeded but certainly not a #1 seed or defending champion.
2003: 2 MEAC teams stink up the first round. One loses to #4 Seed the other loses a home game to an unseeded team.

FAMU has no credentials for an at large over the other contenders and there is no way the MEAC or OVC are entitled to any at large playoff bid.

[Dane96]

Wait... how is a drubbing by a sub .500 squad, the same as a 35-20 loss to a Top Ten Automatic Qualifier??

Ummm...because S.C.S.U. shouldnt be a Top 10 squad...and....drumroll...see Blukeys post on the travesty of MEAC champions of late; Automatic qualfier doesnt mean much.

[ToTheLeft]

Cal Poly would have a better resume at 7-3 (DI) than Liberty at 8-2 DI.

I agree. Which is why CP needs to lose. :)

[danefan]

Wait... how is a drubbing by a sub .500 squad, the same as a 35-20 loss to a Top Ten Automatic Qualifier??

SCSU is #16 in my poll.

And neither will matter. Neither has a quality win. And your team is in trouble if they go into the committee room having the only argument that your loss wasn't as bad as someone elses. xpeacex

[appirishmen]

Where is the precedent for App St. getting an AQ with two losses? There is a fair chance (W&M, Nova, UNH, SDSU) that you may see a 1 loss team available, and they'll get the seed considering the better quality of wins/resume.

well we will beat Elon....duhh

[ToTheLeft]

SCSU is #16 in my poll.

And neither will matter. Neither has a quality win. And your team is in trouble if they go into the committee room having the only argument that your loss wasn't as bad as someone elses. xpeacex

Liberty's win over Lafayette could prove to be a road win over a playoff team. That's our only small sliver of hope.

[DSUrocks07]

Now you are absolutely making stuff up.

Wouldn't be the first time I was accused of doing so xlolxxlolxxlolx


The ONLY time the MEAC team faced a defending National Champion OR #1 seed in the last 6 years was last year with ASU and SCSU.

If you read my previous posts, you would see that I was referring to TT's prognostication that SC State would travel to Richmond in a first round matchup. And what some AGS posters, like yourself, would have to say about the outcome of that game. Thanks for proving my point. xcoffeex


Let's review the more recent history of MEAC continuous futility.

If you insist. Not like I have a choice in the matter Prof. Condescending xrolleyesx


2007: MEAC representative is clobbered by unseeded team. (I don't think we need to go there.)

Of course not, because the way you worded that review of my Hornets of 2007 makes it sound like a horrible loss. On the surface, the MEAC rep was clobbered by some "no-name" team. A MEAC rep that won its conference in what many consider to be a down year. And a "no-name" team that included a 1st round drafted NFL QB and several FCS All-Americans, and that "no-name" team went on to the National Championship game. Yeah, that "no-name" team had no business in the playoffs. xrolleyesx


2006: MEAC Representative loses at home to an unseeded team.

41-38, still a loss, but not a bad loss. And damn sure not a show of "futility"xnonono2x



2005: MEAC proves they are the masters of hyping the one decent team in their conference in getting a top 4 seed and a home game. The team is manhandled by an unseeded team.

That team did not deserve a seed that year, I agree with you on that.


2004: MEAC loses to a team that is seeded but certainly not a #1 seed or defending champion.

That team lost to us as well that year. xlolx
And the last time I checked, the seeded teams are expected to WIN right? Thats why they are seeded in the first place...xrulesx


2003: 2 MEAC teams stink up the first round. One loses to #4 Seed the other loses a home game to an unseeded team.

One loses to a seeded team as expected, hence they were a seed. xoopsx
The other loses to a team that was FBS-bound.


FAMU has no credentials for an at large over the other contenders and there is no way the MEAC or OVC are entitled to any at large playoff bid.

Not arguing for them. In fact I feel that Liberty has a better shot at the playoffs than FAMU. Not sure where you get the idea that I want multiple at larges for the MEAC and OVC.xeyebrowx

[DSUrocks07]

Ummm...because S.C.S.U. shouldnt be a Top 10 squad...and....drumroll...see Blukeys post on the travesty of MEAC champions of late; Automatic qualfier doesnt mean much.

Don't worry, they'll start saying the same things about the NEC in a couple of years. ;)

[R.A.]

Ummm...because S.C.S.U. shouldnt be a Top 10 squad...and....drumroll...see Blukeys post on the travesty of MEAC champions of late; Automatic qualfier doesnt mean much.

So, the team that had FBS SEC Top 20 South Carolina screaming for dear life, shouldn't be ranked in the FCS Top 10.

They were down 10-7 at the half to the Gamecocks... and this is after SCSU had a phantom touchdown called back. The score should have been 14-10 Bulldogs at the half.

There's a reason why the game was blacked out for most of the 1st half folks.

This SCSU squad is better than anything Hampton put forth during their reign as MEAC bad boys.

I can't wait for the Playoffs to start.

[4th and What?]

Where is UNI's signature win? Or are you giving them a playoff berth for *almost* beating Iowa.....


Otherwise doesn't look too bad, usually there are a lot of questionable calls in your prognostications, but apart from UNI I would go with this.

I feel bad for Liberty, they lost to a JMU team that is much stronger than the one that played Richmond/Villanova/W&M.....but such is college football.

[ToTheLeft]

Where is UNI's signature win? Or are you giving them a playoff berth for *almost* beating Iowa.....


Otherwise doesn't look too bad, usually there are a lot of questionable calls in your prognostications, but apart from UNI I would go with this.

I feel bad for Liberty, they lost to a JMU team that is much stronger than the one that played Richmond/Villanova/W&M.....but such is college football.

Re: UNI. I totally agree. If they lose to the 'guins, eyes will be opened. Otherwise, they're going to coast to the playoffs despite not beating anyone...

Re: Liberty. I agree, but in the end it might not matter much. We needed to beat you guys.

[Dane96]

Don't worry, they'll start saying the same things about the NEC in a couple of years. ;)

Hey...dont think Danefan and I, on a whole, would disagree with this; it is the reason we in Dane Country want 63 rides (or at least counter level).

That said, I would take Albany the last couple of years over the MEAC rep at that time. No disrespect meant...i just think Albany has been a tougher team in the past two years than the MEAC rep.

Homer...maybe...but I think alot of CAA, Montana, and GSU fans may agree.

[Ud1Hens]

That said, I would take Albany the last couple of years over the MEAC rep at that time. No disrespect meant...i just think Albany has been a tougher team in the past two years than the MEAC rep.

Homer...maybe...but I think alot of CAA, Montana, and GSU fans may agree.

You have my vote. I saw enough in '06 xeekx. You play a really tough schedule, aren't affraid to go on the road. I respect that.

[PhoenixSupreme]

well we will beat Elon....duhh

http://blog.pharmalive.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/o_rly.jpg

[KiddBrewer]

Suppose it's possible...but i don't see where App. State's resume (quality win over Elon, hypothetically) would compare to a 10-1 UNH (wins over Ball State, 'Nova and W&M) or the 10-1 versions of W&M or 'Nova, considering they'd have wins over Richmond. CAA deserves two seeds this year, IMO. The CAA projections are all best case, obviously.

if ya know anything about the NCAA, you know they are going to try to get Appalachian as many home games as they can. because of attendance...and because they just like us better:)xwhistlex kidding, kinda

[Fear the Bird]

Does there really not exist any of the projecting fans out there that think Delaware will find a way to beat either Navy or Nova - remember don't have to beat both of them.

[ToTheLeft]

Does there really not exist any of the projecting fans out there that think Delaware will find a way to beat either Navy or Nova - remember don't have to beat both of them.

I put this sentence into a translator and still couldn't figure out what it meant.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

I put this sentence into a translator and still couldn't figure out what it meant.

xlolx

[blukeys]

Wouldn't be the first time I was accused of doing so xlolxxlolxxlolx



If you read my previous posts, you would see that I was referring to TT's prognostication that SC State would travel to Richmond in a first round matchup. And what some AGS posters, like yourself, would have to say about the outcome of that game. Thanks for proving my point. xcoffeex

I knew what you were saying. My criticism was of your whining about the potential matchup and YOUR attempt to potentially use it as an excuse for losing and any repercussions. There is certainly no guarantee that SCSU would lose as I know. In my post I pointed out how the MEAC is 0-7 in just the last 6 playoffs.

The record of the MEAC cannot be blamed on facing defending Champs or #1 seeds. The purpose of having a playoff system is to crown a NC. At some time you will face a potential NC in the playoffs and some very good teams. Your response was pretty much what I expected, More self pity. I have seen numerous players who went on to the pros in the playoffs and at times my team has come out ahead. At other times we lost.

More times than I can count we were the unseeded team. I don't think our players ever expected to lose. Yet you continually excuse MEAC losses because they played a seeded team.

MEAC needs to man up and just say let's play ball instead of using the massive pity party argument that they don't get respect.



Not arguing for them. In fact I feel that Liberty has a better shot at the playoffs than FAMU. Not sure where you get the idea that I want multiple at larges for the MEAC and OVC.xeyebrowx

If you are not of the view that FAMU should be in the playoffs then I was mistaken. I thought I read a post by you suggesting such. As for adding the OVC, It was to demonstrate my view that both conferences have performed in the playoffs at the same level and that I don't have any axe to grind with the MEAC.

[Fear the Bird]

I put this sentence into a translator and still couldn't figure out what it meant.

Probably could have been worded better. All the people who project on this site do not have Delaware in as of today and I will assume that is based on the future schedule. Some of the other sites I have seen have them not only in but hosting (of course they have a greater chance of hosting if they are in due to their ability to draw).

I was just asking if there is anybody outside of Delaware who thinks they will beat EITHER Navy or Nova b/c it sure doesn't seem like it.

Sorry to cause your heads to spin xrotatehxxrotatehxxrotatehx

[danefan]

Probably could have been worded better. All the people who project on this site do not have Delaware in as of today and I will assume that is based on the future schedule. Some of the other sites I have seen have them not only in but hosting (of course they have a greater chance of hosting if they are in due to their ability to draw).

I was just asking if there is anybody outside of Delaware who thinks they will beat EITHER Navy or Nova b/c it sure doesn't seem like it.

Sorry to cause your heads to spin xrotatehxxrotatehxxrotatehx

I think Delaware will beat Nova, but I don't know about Navy. Delaware has to make every opportunity count against Navy, because Navy will run the clock out. They didn't throw a pass the entire game yesterday. 64 running plays.

[Fear the Bird]

I think Delaware will beat Nova, but I don't know about Navy. Delaware has to make every opportunity count against Navy, because Navy will run the clock out. They didn't throw a pass the entire game yesterday. 64 running plays.

Fair enough but if Delaware beats Nova and loses to Navy (assuming they take care of business with JMU and Hofstra) they would be in. So why are they never in this prognostications is my question.

[ToTheLeft]

Here's my picks, not based on this week, but based on how I see things panning out...

SoCon: Elon
CAA: Richmond
Sky: Montana
SLC: SFA
MVFC: SDSU
OVC: EIU
PL: Lafayette
MEAC: SCSU

Locks
---
Nova
UNH
William and Mary
SIU

Good, but not locks
---
App St.
McNeese St.
Weber St.

Last Team In/Bubble Teams
---
In- UNI
Last four out- Liberty, UMass, NAU, Albany

[ToTheLeft]

Probably could have been worded better. All the people who project on this site do not have Delaware in as of today and I will assume that is based on the future schedule. Some of the other sites I have seen have them not only in but hosting (of course they have a greater chance of hosting if they are in due to their ability to draw).

I was just asking if there is anybody outside of Delaware who thinks they will beat EITHER Navy or Nova b/c it sure doesn't seem like it.

Sorry to cause your heads to spin xrotatehxxrotatehxxrotatehx

Haha, it's cool.

And I do not believe UD has a very good chance at all. Two nearly impossible road games. There is a chance AGS that they win, but I doubt it.

[Fear the Bird]

Here's my picks, not based on this week, but based on how I see things panning out...

SoCon: Elon
CAA: Richmond
Sky: Montana
SLC: SFA
MVFC: SDSU
OVC: EIU
PL: Lafayette
MEAC: SCSU

Locks
---
Nova
UNH
William and Mary
SIU

Good, but not locks
---
App St.
McNeese St.
Weber St.

Last Team In/Bubble Teams
---
In- UNI
Last four out- Liberty, UMass, NAU, Albany


Rationale for UMass and not Delaware pleasexthumbsupx

[ToTheLeft]

Rationale for UMass and not Delaware pleasexthumbsupx

Mass will have 7+ wins. UD won't. I think UD is the better team, but won't make it because they won't have the resume.

[igo4uni]

if ya know anything about the NCAA, you know they are going to try to get Appalachian as many home games as they can. because of attendance...and because they just like us better:)xwhistlex kidding, kinda

Well, you do have a point.

[danefan]

Fair enough but if Delaware beats Nova and loses to Navy (assuming they take care of business with JMU and Hofstra) they would be in. So why are they never in this prognostications is my question.

Because I think most assune UD will end up at best 7-3 (West Chester doesn't count) and there will be at least one team from a power conference at 8-3 and that team will go instead.

That's why a lot times people refer to Delaware as a victim of scheduling. They would have been much better off scheduling a bad DI.

[Fear the Bird]

Because I think most assune UD will end up at best 7-3 (West Chester doesn't count) and there will be at least one team from a power conference at 8-3 and that team will go instead.

That's why a lot times people refer to Delaware as a victim of scheduling. They would have been much better off scheduling a bad DI.

If Delaware wins 3 of 4 down the stretch there is no way they miss the playoffs

[Schfourteenteen]

There isnt a soul who disagrees with that.

But in order to take 3 they need to beat @Navy OR @Nova and most predictions will include neither.

[Fear the Bird]

danefan doesn't agree with that. He said an 8-3 team from another conference would get in over 7-3 Delaware (throwing out West Chester)

[ToTheLeft]

danefan doesn't agree with that. He said an 8-3 team from another conference would get in over 7-3 Delaware (throwing out West Chester)

I would respectfully disagree with danefan then. If UD beats Nova or Navy they would be in, especially in ahead of UNI or UMass who would have no wins of that caliber.

[Fear the Bird]

Okay just making sure we are all on the same page here. I was trying to figure out what the assumption is and it looks like there are two out there

1) UD won't beat Nova or Nova
2) Even if UD goes 8-3 they won't get in (which crazy imo)

[tribe_pride]

UD won't be favored versus Villanova and should not be but I wouldn't be shocked to see Delaware win. This is a rivalry game and UD may be playing for their playoff lives. Nova should have locked up a spot before this but may be playing for a seed if it beats Richmond on Nov 7. I expect a good close game. Delaware seems to be playing better than they did against the Tribe.

[DOME]

If the season ended today I wouldn't put UNI in based on their level of play. Somehow the offense (Grace) has fallen apart and started to give the ball away like away like a hot potato! Farley seems to think the team is worn out from not getting a bye week yet, I don't know the reason.

That being said, if they can come out of this Bye and play the way they started the season, win their last three big (2+ scores per game) well then I feel with our money and recent history an 8-3 UNI gets in.

I really feel that if UNI plays the way they played the first five weeks they can do work from the 16 spot.

We'll see how the next four weeks play out. May/probably will need some other games to go our way too.

[Henny]

Haha, it's cool.

And I do not believe UD has a very good chance at all. Two nearly impossible road games. There is a chance AGS that they win, but I doubt it.


Someone isn't paying attention. Nearly impossible? We will worry about J Mad. this week and let you get caught up on the '09 UD's recent play combined with a get healthy week.

[MSUfan2010]

Just curious what everyone else thinks about this scenario.....

MSU wins out. 8-3 with a win over SIU and winners of 5 straight

SIU loses to SDSU and MSU. 8-3 with a win over UNI and 3-2 in last 5 games.

UNI wins out. 8-3 with their best win being over MSU. 3-2 in last 5 games.

Who gets the 2nd bid for the MVFC? Could we get 3 in? How do you even go about choosing a team out of a group that all have a win against each other?

I would think SIU would be in. But is a win over SIU enough for MSU even though they lost to UNI?

[RabidRabbit]

Just curious what everyone else thinks about this scenario.....

MSU wins out. 8-3 with a win over SIU and winners of 5 straight

SIU loses to SDSU and MSU. 8-3 with a win over UNI and 3-2 in last 5 games.

UNI wins out. 8-3 with their best win being over MSU. 3-2 in last 5 games.

Who gets the 2nd bid for the MVFC? Could we get 3 in? How do you even go about choosing a team out of a group that all have a win against each other?

The D-II game of SIU means that a 8-3 SIU is really a 7-3 in the eyes of the selection committee. At that point, what you have is AQ SDSU 8-0 in conference and 3 teams, UNI, MSU, SIU at 6-2. The third criteria at that point is the ratings. Given how high UNI and SIU have been this season, IMHO, Bears will be hard pressed to be selected.

[HensRock]

Delaware has finished the regular season with exactly 7 D-I wins a total of 6 times since joining I-AA in 1981. IN 5 of those years, they made the playoffs. The only exception was 1984 where UD went 8-3 overall. They beat D-II West Chester (which doesn't count) but also beat I-A Temple to go 7-3 in Div-I play.
I'd have to do more research to find out why they were not included that year.

They did make it with only 7 Div-I wins in 86, 88, 93, 96, and 2004.

In 1988, the Hens finsihed 7-4 with a LOSS to Div-II West Chester and still made the field.

[tribe_pride]

I don't think anyone is arguing that an 8-3 Delaware squad won't make the playoffs. What we are saying is a 7-4 Delaware squad with only 6 D-1 wins won't make the playoffs. To go 8-3, Delaware would have to beat JMU and Hofstra (both likely) and then win either at Navy or at Nova (likely Nova since Navy is pretty strong this year).

I think that Delaware definitely has a shot at Nova since it's a rivalry game and a lot will be on hand. It'll be very similar to the Tribe-Richmond game last year that we lost in OT on the last game of the season to keep us out (and maybe send Richmond to the playoffs)

[bostonspider]

Don't think that a loss versus W&M would have kept UR out of the playoffs. It would have bounced Maine for sure though, as UR had throttled them and would have been 8-4 as well. I do think W&M would have done a lot more in the playoffs than Maine's effort at UNI.

[State Line Liquors]

Haha, it's cool.

And I do not believe UD has a very good chance at all. Two nearly impossible road games. There is a chance AGS that they win, but I doubt it.

Yeah, I agree. That Nova game is going to be nearly impossible to win. The series between us and Nova is so lopsided that we've considered switching Towson to our rivalry week game. Beating Navy is just a pipe dream for us, when you consider we've never been able to win in Annapolis before, and how balanced an attack Navy has.

Villanova is averaging 6 more yards a game than us on offense, allowing 21 less yards than us on defense, allowing 6 fewer points a game. You've also got to consider Nova's incredible home field advantage and the fact that they'll be playing for their lives on the last game of the season. Also consider the unlucky roll of the die Nova got in having Lehigh, Penn, Northeastern, & Rhode Island on their schedule so early in the season and that it's probably held back some of their stats.

They say Any Given Saturday any team can win, but as a Liberty fan that's been around the block so many times at this level I can understand the advanced perspective you'd have of our schedule and playing abilities.

[ToTheLeft]

You're right, being a Liberty fan precludes me from seeing the facts as they are.

Like I've said elsewhere, we need to just make the playoffs all CAA teams and give everyone else ribbons and juice boxes. Since no one is on the same level as the CAA. A UD team that's one game over .500 is clearly more qualified for the playoffs than teams like UNI, McNeese, and Cal Poly since those teams don't play in the oh so difficult CAA. I think Towson deserves to be in the playoffs, half the teams they play are ranked! That's so brave of them, to suffer through the CAA schedule.

[Fear the Bird]

Beating Navy is just a pipe dream for us, when you consider we've never been able to win in Annapolis before, and how balanced an attack Navy has.

xlolxxbowxxlolxxbowx

I wonder if our corners will be up to the task of stopping the zero pass attempts that Navy threw this weekend

[Fear the Bird]

A UD team that's one game over .500

HUH?

[ToTheLeft]

xlolxxbowxxlolxxbowx

I wonder if our corners will be up to the task of stopping the zero pass attempts that Navy threw this weekend

I wonder if the defense that allowed 231 rushing yards to Towson can stop a powerful running game from Navy. xthumbsupx

[ToTheLeft]

HUH?

6-4. One game over .500. West Chester doesn't count. The thought that 6-4 UD is good enough for the playoffs. That's what I was referring to.

[Fear the Bird]

I wonder if the defense that allowed 231 rushing yards to Towson can stop a powerful running game from Navy. xthumbsupx

Oh to go through life so misinformed must be so nice. I mean if you like quoting stats that came when the score was 49-0 and the entire second string was on the field go for it. For the record, Navy rushed for 342 yards against UD in 2007 and I seem to remember being on the right side of that score.

[Fear the Bird]

6-4. One game over .500. West Chester doesn't count. The thought that 6-4 UD is good enough for the playoffs. That's what I was referring to.

That would actually be 2 games over .500 in the sense that you are using it, which is what confused me. I know it doesn't make sense, but that is how it is said in sports, i.e. baseball.

[ToTheLeft]

That would actually be 2 games over .500 in the sense that you are using it, which is what confused me. I know it doesn't make sense, but that is how it is said in sports, i.e. baseball.

Eh, one game away from .500. Sorry, stupid terminology. The point stands, despite my stupidity.

[SumItUp]

6-4. One game over .500. West Chester doesn't count. The thought that 6-4 UD is good enough for the playoffs. That's what I was referring to.

xeekx Maybe you were trying to say one game over one game over .500. xoopsx

[ToTheLeft]

xeekx Maybe you were trying to say one game over one game over .500. xoopsx

Eh, I thought that "one game over" meant the result of one game, rather than one tally in one column. My mistake.

[State Line Liquors]

You're right, being a Liberty fan precludes me from seeing the facts as they are.

Like I've said elsewhere, we need to just make the playoffs all CAA teams and give everyone else ribbons and juice boxes. Since no one is on the same level as the CAA. A UD team that's one game over .500 is clearly more qualified for the playoffs than teams like UNI, McNeese, and Cal Poly since those teams don't play in the oh so difficult CAA. I think Towson deserves to be in the playoffs, half the teams they play are ranked! That's so brave of them, to suffer through the CAA schedule.

Don't get all fire and brimstone here now that I've had a laugh at your expense. You earned my comments based upon your opinion that UD beating Nova in Radnor and/or winning in Annapolis is nearly impossible. If you were just 'seeing the facts' and the stats and the series history you'd be able to come to a smarter conclusion than it being nearly impossible.

If UD ends the year with a 6-4 D1 record, we don't deserve to be in. If we win the next two, like we're supposed to, (that would include us beating JMU at our place) and split one of the last 2 (winning both is far from out of the question) it'll be very hard to leave us out. If we win 3 of 4, we're in.

I will give you credit though, at least for persistence, for running back behind Mom's apron with the high and mighty CAA comments.

[State Line Liquors]

I wonder if the defense that allowed 231 rushing yards to Towson can stop a powerful running game from Navy. xthumbsupx


Did you even look through the box score of that game? Do a little research. We had our 2nd and 3rd string defense in during the 4th quarter. That's when the 2 longest drives of the game for Towson came.

[ToTheLeft]

Did you even look through the box score of that game? Do a little research. We had our 2nd and 3rd string defense in during the 4th quarter. That's when the 2 longest drives of the game for Towson came.

So then when Navy is up 30 and UD brings in the backups to preserve the starters for the last-gasp game against Nova, Navy will do the same. xrotatehx

[bluehenbillk]

How the heck did Liberty work into the conversation here? This is a playoff thread. Didn't they lose to last-place JMWho by double digits?

[ToTheLeft]

How the heck did Liberty work into the conversation here? This is a playoff thread. Didn't they lose to last-place JMWho by double digits?

Cute. No one mentioned Liberty, but you. But nice try to discredit someone based on secondary information rather than primary facts.

Just because I am a Liberty fan, doesn't mean I don't follow FCS football and have an idea what I'm talking about...

[DSUrocks07]

Yeah, I agree. That Nova game is going to be nearly impossible to win. The series between us and Nova is so lopsided that we've considered switching Towson to our rivalry week game. Beating Navy is just a pipe dream for us, when you consider we've never been able to win in Annapolis before, and how balanced an attack Navy has.

Villanova is averaging 6 more yards a game than us on offense, allowing 21 less yards than us on defense, allowing 6 fewer points a game. You've also got to consider Nova's incredible home field advantage and the fact that they'll be playing for their lives on the last game of the season. Also consider the unlucky roll of the die Nova got in having Lehigh, Penn, Northeastern, & Rhode Island on their schedule so early in the season and that it's probably held back some of their stats.

They say Any Given Saturday any team can win, but as a Liberty fan that's been around the block so many times at this level I can understand the advanced perspective you'd have of our schedule and playing abilities.

You know what would be a great idea. If the CAA, Socon, Big Sky, SLC, and MVFC formed some sort of an alliance to have their own playoff system. Call it the Championship Playoff Series (CPS). Lock the rest of the leagues out unless they meet some inane, obnoxious requirement. Use the GPI to rank the teams. Add sponsors and keep the money all to yourselves.


I mean let's be honest, that IS your end game here isn't it? xrolleyesx

[GannonFan]

You know what would be a great idea. If the CAA, Socon, Big Sky, SLC, and MVFC formed some sort of an alliance to have their own playoff system. Call it the Championship Playoff Series (CPS). Lock the rest of the leagues out unless they meet some inane, obnoxious requirement. Use the GPI to rank the teams. Add sponsors and keep the money all to yourselves.


I mean let's be honest, that IS your end game here isn't it? xrolleyesx

I believe what you are talking about already exists - it's called the second round, or Quarterfinals if you will, of the current playoff structure. :pxlolx

[tribe_pride]

Cute. No one mentioned Liberty, but you. But nice try to discredit someone based on secondary information rather than primary facts.

Just because I am a Liberty fan, doesn't mean I don't follow FCS football and have an idea what I'm talking about...


Here's my picks, not based on this week, but based on how I see things panning out...

SoCon: Elon
CAA: Richmond
Sky: Montana
SLC: SFA
MVFC: SDSU
OVC: EIU
PL: Lafayette
MEAC: SCSU

Locks
---
Nova
UNH
William and Mary
SIU

Good, but not locks
---
App St.
McNeese St.
Weber St.

Last Team In/Bubble Teams
---
In- UNI
Last four out- Liberty, UMass, NAU, Albany

You have Liberty being the 1st team on the last 4 out. Don't say that nobody mentioned Liberty but Bluehenbilk because you clearly did.

[james_lawfirm]

Where is the precedent for App St. getting an AQ with two losses? There is a fair chance (W&M, Nova, UNH, SDSU) that you may see a 1 loss team available, and they'll get the seed considering the better quality of wins/resume.

Well, if they end the regular season with 2 losses, App will be SoCon champs, having beaten Elon. It will be awful tough not to give App a seed with an 8 - 0 Socon record, 9 - 2 overall.

Based on what I saw yesterday, App is now back in full form. There's still alot of football left in the regular season, but I like what I am seeing. Next up: Furman.

My prediction is: App will peak at the right time - during the playoffs.

I want to play Montana in Boone & Richmond anywhere.

[Fear the Bird]

You know what would be a great idea. If the CAA, Socon, Big Sky, SLC, and MVFC formed some sort of an alliance to have their own playoff system. Call it the Championship Playoff Series (CPS). Lock the rest of the leagues out unless they meet some inane, obnoxious requirement. Use the GPI to rank the teams. Add sponsors and keep the money all to yourselves.


I mean let's be honest, that IS your end game here isn't it? xrolleyesx

That's like saying the Big East and ACC should have their own March Madness tournament. Should the other conferences be allowed to play in the tournament? Absolutely and that's why there are AQ's. But to sit here and say that they should get at-large bids just because they have a gaudy record?? Stopppp. The facts don't lie

2008: "Non-power" conferences go 0-5, Final four consists of 2 CAA, 1 Big Sky, 1 MVFC

2007: "Non-power" conferences go 0-5, Final four consists of 2 CAA, 1 MVFC, 1 SoCon

2006: 2-3, 1 CAA, 1 Big Sky, 1 So Con, 1 MVFC

Are the playoffs supposed to be the best teams or the nicest Cinderella stories?

[State Line Liquors]

You know what would be a great idea. If the CAA, Socon, Big Sky, SLC, and MVFC formed some sort of an alliance to have their own playoff system. Call it the Championship Playoff Series (CPS). Lock the rest of the leagues out unless they meet some inane, obnoxious requirement. Use the GPI to rank the teams. Add sponsors and keep the money all to yourselves.


I mean let's be honest, that IS your end game here isn't it? xrolleyesx

I'm not sure how you attributed that thought to my quote. xreadx

My only point is that if we're going to base our discussion on facts, how about we actually have a good understanding of them? Would that be fair? Suggesting that UD has no chance of beating either Villanova or Navy (or both) would require no knowledge of how either of those series has played out over the years or the quality of the football being played by all 3 this year. If you have only started paying attention to FCS football in the last couple of years, you might not have a very strong understanding of that history.

[UNH Fanboi]

Well, if they end the regular season with 2 losses, App will be SoCon champs, having beaten Elon. It will be awful tough not to give App a seed with an 8 - 0 Socon record, 9 - 2 overall.

Based on what I saw yesterday, App is now back in full form. There's still alot of football left in the regular season, but I like what I am seeing. Next up: Furman.

My prediction is: App will peak at the right time - during the playoffs.

I want to play Montana in Boone & Richmond anywhere.

I think there is a good chance that W&M beats UNH, and Richmond beats Nova and W&M, in which case there will be no 10-1 CAA team and what I'm about to say won't matter. BUT, if UNH, Nova or W&M go 10-1, then App St. getting a seed over them would be total BS. Each of the aforementioned would have a better record, an FBS win, wins over two other playoff teams and no embarrassing losses. Nevertheless, Villanova got shafted out of a seed last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see App. St. or another team getting a seed over the #2 CAA team this year.

[Tribe4SF]

You know what would be a great idea. If the CAA, Socon, Big Sky, SLC, and MVFC formed some sort of an alliance to have their own playoff system. Call it the Championship Playoff Series (CPS). Lock the rest of the leagues out unless they meet some inane, obnoxious requirement. Use the GPI to rank the teams. Add sponsors and keep the money all to yourselves.


I mean let's be honest, that IS your end game here isn't it? xrolleyesx

If we thought there was any money in it, sure it would be our endgame. As it is, it's ended up being the endgame most years anyway.

And based on recent performance, were cutting the SLC out of the CPS.:D

[DSUrocks07]

I'm not sure how you attributed that thought to my quote. xreadx

My only point is that if we're going to base our discussion on facts, how about we actually have a good understanding of them? Would that be fair? Suggesting that UD has no chance of beating either Villanova or Navy (or both) would require no knowledge of how either of those series has played out over the years or the quality of the football being played by all 3 this year. If you have only started paying attention to FCS football in the last couple of years, you might not have a very strong understanding of that history.

Delaware is a great program. Don't misinterpret my words. I been following both UD and DSU for years. The fact is that UD does have a tough road ahead of them. An improve Hofstra, a down but still dangerous JMU, FBS Navy who is winning games this year, and rival Nova. I'm not saying that they can't win any or all of those games. I wouldn't put them as the favorite in the last two games. Even with their history against Navy and Nova.

[ToTheLeft]

You have Liberty being the 1st team on the last 4 out. Don't say that nobody mentioned Liberty but Bluehenbilk because you clearly did.

Yeah, I said Liberty was out. Because they are.

[DSUrocks07]

If we thought there was any money in it, sure it would be our endgame. As it is, it's ended up being the endgame most years anyway.

And based on recent performance, were cutting the SLC out of the CPS.:D

And people complain about the BCS xlolx :p

[State Line Liquors]

I been following both UD and DSU for years. The fact is that UD does have a tough road ahead of them. An improve Hofstra, a down but still dangerous JMU, FBS Navy who is winning games this year, and rival Nova. I'm not saying that they can't win any or all of those games. I wouldn't put them as the favorite in the last two games. Even with their history against Navy and Nova.

Good post. You even qualify your comments further by indicating that you actually have been paying attention to UD for years. Don't mistake me either. I'm not saying that UD is going to win out. I'm also not comfortable saying we'll win 3 of 4.

What I do feel comfortable saying is that this post/line of thinking is utter nonsense: "I do not believe UD has a very good chance at all. Two nearly impossible road games. There is a chance AGS that they win, but I doubt it. "

UD certainly has a chance. And neither of these two games are or ever have been impossible for UD. Got me DSUrocks07?

[DSUrocks07]

Good post. You even qualify your comments further by indicating that you actually have been paying attention to UD for years. Don't mistake me either. I'm not saying that UD is going to win out. I'm also not comfortable saying we'll win 3 of 4.

What I do feel comfortable saying is that this post/line of thinking is utter nonsense: "I do not believe UD has a very good chance at all. Two nearly impossible road games. There is a chance AGS that they win, but I doubt it. "

UD certainly has a chance. And neither of these two games are or ever have been impossible for UD. Got me DSUrocks07?

Loud and clear State Line Liquors xpeacex

[aceinthehole]

Here's the rub with FAMU and Liberty:

Everyone seems to agree that neither Albany nor Central Ct. has a chance right? That's the sentiment on this board at least, isn't it?

Well if that's the case, then how can anyone think that FAMU or Liberty have a chance? They'll be in the exact same spot at the end of the season.

FAMU will likely be 9-2 with a loss to SCSU and a drubbing by Miami.
Liberty will be at 9-2 with a loss to what appears to be a sub-500 JMU and West Virginia.
Albany will be 9-2 with a last-second loss to Georgia Southern and a drubbing against UMass.
Central could be 10-1 with a loss at W&M.

Only one team in that entire group will have a Top 25 win and that wouldn't include a win over a team in the top 25 at the end of the season. And that would be Albany over Maine, which was a Top 25 team at that time.

I cannot see how any of these teams get in. No real good wins for anyone. I just don't think that's enough.

The only saving grace liberty may have is that they played tough against WVU. There isn't really any precedent for Committee commending tough losses though. They're more likely to commend a big win than a close loss (a la UNH in 2007).

Good stuff. None of those teams (add in the PL runner up) are at-large worthy.

Top-25 is a different story (where I think UA and CCSU unfairly remain on the outside), but I agree that none of those teams have any wins worthy a playoff bid.

[ThompsonThe]

Appalachian State will Win the SoCon.

[Ud1Hens]

Good stuff. None of those teams (add in the PL runner up) are at-large worthy.

Top-25 is a different story (where I think UA and CCSU unfairly remain on the outside), but I agree that none of those teams have any wins worthy a playoff bid.

Looking at the trainwrecks in the ORV categories I feel bad that you are grouped together.

[ThompsonThe]

Yeah, I said Liberty was out. Because they are.

Elon, You better hope Liberty is out. What did they whack you by last year?
26 to 3 I believe, last game of the regular season.

Good move to open with Davidson and Presbyterian this year. Has either one of them
won a game yet?

[McNeese75]

And based on recent performance, were cutting the SLC out of the CPS.:D

On behalf of myself and my SLC brethern

http://anniversarycircle.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/read-between-the-lines.jpg

:D

[BlackNGold]

I found that hard to read

[danefan]

Good stuff. None of those teams (add in the PL runner up) are at-large worthy.

Top-25 is a different story (where I think UA and CCSU unfairly remain on the outside), but I agree that none of those teams have any wins worthy a playoff bid.

Yes, funny how no one refuted my post..........xeyebrowx Two days and not one argument? Hmmmm....

[seattlespider]

Wow, a lot of carnage this week for some name programs. As far as I can tell, Weber State, UMass, Delaware, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly, Youngstown State and UC Davis are dead or dying. In fact, Delaware I think can get in if they win out, only because of their SOS down the stretch. The rest of the teams above are done I think.

[darell1976]

Wow, a lot of carnage this week for some name programs. As far as I can tell, Weber State, UMass, Delaware, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly, Youngstown State and UC Davis are dead or dying. In fact, Delaware I think can get in if they win out, only because of their SOS down the stretch. The rest of the teams above are done I think.

Add Cal Poly to that list.

[ElonPride]

Elon, You better hope Liberty is out. What did they whack you by last year?
26 to 3 I believe, last game of the regular season.

Good move to open with Davidson and Presbyterian this year. Has either one of them
won a game yet?

You try to trash our schedule, all the while you play NCCU? Have you looked to see what their only win is this year? Typical.....

[JMUNJ08]

You try to trash our schedule, all the while you play NCCU? Have you looked to see what their only win is this year? Typical.....

They won today and now have 2 wins

[JMUNJ08]

Wow, a lot of carnage this week for some name programs. As far as I can tell, Weber State, UMass, Delaware, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly, Youngstown State and UC Davis are dead or dying. In fact, Delaware I think can get in if they win out, only because of their SOS down the stretch. The rest of the teams above are done I think.

I agree. Outside the top ten, Southland, Patriot, and OVC winners, who are the last three teams in? Will there be 3 available besides (GASP) Colgate and Liberty??????

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Wow, a lot of carnage this week for some name programs. As far as I can tell, Weber State, UMass, Delaware, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly, Youngstown State and UC Davis are dead or dying. In fact, Delaware I think can get in if they win out, only because of their SOS down the stretch. The rest of the teams above are done I think.

Yep, but ONLY if they win out. If they don't win out, they can't reach 7 D-I wins, and frankly, @Navy and @Villanova.... not going to happen.


Great news for EWU with their drubbing of Portland State today! :D

[gophoenix]

Elon, You better hope Liberty is out. What did they whack you by last year?
26 to 3 I believe, last game of the regular season.

Good move to open with Davidson and Presbyterian this year. Has either one of them
won a game yet?

Better to open winning than losing.

Besides, didn't we pull that schedule right out of the App playbook? You know, 2008, App opened with Presbyterian and Jacksonville.

But keep trying with the smack. The fact that EVERY one of your posts talks about Elon really says something about you. xthumbsupx

[T-Dog]

I agree. Outside the top ten, Southland, Patriot, and OVC winners, who are the last three teams in? Will there be 3 available besides (GASP) Colgate and Liberty??????

I got McNeese in if both them and SFA win out (SFA gets the at-large). Hard to deny a 9-2 McNeese team.

So that leaves 2 teams left. I think UNI is getting in if they finish up 8-3. Would a 9-2 FAMU team have a chance?

[JMUNJ08]

I got McNeese in if both them and SFA win out (SFA gets the at-large). Hard to deny a 9-2 McNeese team.

So that leaves 2 teams left. I think UNI is getting in if they finish up 8-3. Would a 9-2 FAMU team have a chance?

Yeah but UNI and FAMU both are lacking quality wins just like several others that have been discounted all season so they fall into the grab bag. Should be an interesting selection Sunday!

[UNHWildCats]

Yeah but UNI and FAMU both are lacking quality wins just like several others that have been discounted all season so they fall into the grab bag. Should be an interesting selection Sunday!
The thing is there may only be 20 teams with 7 Div I wins and that includes Liberty, Central Conn State, a second Patriot League team, so while UNI and FAMU may lack quality wins they still maybe the best choice.. and 8-3 UNI and a 9-2 FAMU should easily get in ahead of those three teams mentioned above... which means the final spot could come down to FAMU and UNI.

[Runner]

The thing is there may only be 20 teams with 7 Div I wins and that includes Liberty, Central Conn State, a second Patriot League team, so while UNI and FAMU may lack quality wins they still maybe the best choice.. and 8-3 UNI and a 9-2 FAMU should easily get in ahead of those three teams mentioned above... which means the final spot could come down to FAMU and UNI.

We played like crap today, in my opinion. If we get in, we get in, if not........., our program is steady getting better.

[ToTheLeft]

Why does FAMU easily get in over LU?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Are all of you forgetting about EWU, or just assuming that if they win out they're getting in? Because with all the losses by bubble teams today, I'd say EWU's 95% to get in if they win out (@SUU, @NAU).

[Grizzaholic]

Are all of you forgetting about EWU, or just assuming that if they win out they're getting in? Because with all the losses by bubble teams today, I'd say EWU's 95% to get in if they win out (@SUU, @NAU).

Good luck with those two.

[ToTheLeft]

For real, road games against teams that are both capable of beating EWU? Good luck. You'll have to earn a playoff bid, that's for sure.

[UNHWildCats]

Are all of you forgetting about EWU, or just assuming that if they win out they're getting in? Because with all the losses by bubble teams today, I'd say EWU's 95% to get in if they win out (@SUU, @NAU).
they have to win out first.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Good luck with those two.


For real, road games against teams that are both capable of beating EWU? Good luck. You'll have to earn a playoff bid, that's for sure.


they have to win out first.

Of course we have to win out. SUU will be the tougher of the two games. EWU has been playing lights out on the road this year (except for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Q's against Cal) with only 7 point loss to a #2 Montana team (that could've gone either way if reffed properly), and of course the loss at Cal. EWU will not turn the ball over near as many times as UC-Davis did today against SUU. NAU looks more like a paper tiger than a contender, but will still put up a fight. I like our chances. xpeacex

Edit: Not to mention we get a Bye week to get healthy and study SUU tape. I think EWU's performance today was a great example of the team's resolve and determination after getting the good news earlier this week. We take no one lightly, and keep the season week to week.

[malibudude]

Are all of you forgetting about EWU, or just assuming that if they win out they're getting in? Because with all the losses by bubble teams today, I'd say EWU's 95% to get in if they win out (@SUU, @NAU).

Good luck in Cedar City. SUU is the real deal.

[kirkblitz]

lib is in bitches!

[gmoney55]

The thing is there may only be 20 teams with 7 Div I wins and that includes Liberty, Central Conn State, a second Patriot League team, so while UNI and FAMU may lack quality wins they still maybe the best choice.. and 8-3 UNI and a 9-2 FAMU should easily get in ahead of those three teams mentioned above... which means the final spot could come down to FAMU and UNI.

Why is FAMU in "easily" over Liberty or a second PL? Liberty has a win at Lafayette, who may be a top 25 team soon. Holy Cross has two wins over top 25 teams. Lafayette has only lost to Liberty and beat some of the best in the Ivies...what's FAMU's best win, overtime over Morgan State?

[ASU_Fanatic]

What do you know? You finally have us in and btw were gonna beat Elon. Our offense can't be stopped.

[WyomingGrizFan]

Of course we have to win out. SUU will be the tougher of the two games. EWU has been playing lights out on the road this year (except for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Q's against Cal) with only 7 point loss to a #2 Montana team (that could've gone either way if reffed properly), and of course the loss at Cal. EWU will not turn the ball over near as many times as UC-Davis did today against SUU. NAU looks more like a paper tiger than a contender, but will still put up a fight. I like our chances. xpeacex

Edit: Not to mention we get a Bye week to get healthy and study SUU tape. I think EWU's performance today was a great example of the team's resolve and determination after getting the good news earlier this week. We take no one lightly, and keep the season week to week.

Wish you luck against SUS there Eagles. Be Good to see two teams out of the BSC in the Play-offs this year. If you win out in your next two games ending up 8 - 3 that should help; you're a lot better than being merely #26 in the Polls. I don't think NAU will make it this year; not with games against Mississippi, Weber St and yourselves. Just be in the other bracket will ya!!! Then we can play again , say, in Chattanooga, this year. You got the possibilities. Too bad about Boyce though; that hurts. Hope all goes well for you from here on out. Go Eagles!!!

[ElonPride]

They won today and now have 2 wins

Oh, excuse me! They now have as many wins as Davidson......xeyebrowx

[panther_kicker]

Again, I'm making the effort - throw me a bracket and show me what you think!

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Elon
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
McNeese State

Bracket

South Carolina State @ (1) Richmond
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Villanova
Eastern Illinois @ (4) Southern Illinois

New Hampshire @ Northern Iowa
Florida A&M @ (3) Stephen F. Austin

Elon @ McNeese State
South Dakota State @ (2) Montana

Last Teams In

Northern Iowa - At 5-3, the schedule ahead is favorable with YSU and WIU at home before traveling to Illinois St. I think UNI can win all three. Last two games were losses, but that was SDSU and SIU, who are locks.

Florida A&M - Would the committee take a MEAC team with a 9-2 mark with the lone losses to FBS Miami and a MEAC AQ in SCST? Over a slew of 7-4 teams, yes.

Bubble Teams

Albany - Props to the Great Danes for playing up with three toughies to start. Had Albany picked up one of those two losses (at Ga Southern or at UMass), perhaps this discussion would be different.

Cal Poly/UC-Davis - At 3-3 in Div I games, either of these squads would have to win out and that's not possible becasue they hook up on Nov. 7. Even then, hard pressed to get in.

Central Connecticut State - Poor GPI. Lone lone was to William & Mary. A close call at Bryant this past week.

Delaware - 4-2 in Div I games with four remaining. End season with road games at Navy and at Villanova. They may be in a position where they need to beat Navy.

Furman - Has three tough games (Appy, at Auburn, at Ga Southern). Hard pressed to reach seven wins now that they have lost to Citadel.

Georgia Southern - No room for a 7-4 SoCon team and even that would be tough to come by with games at Samford, vs Furman and vs Citadel left.

Lafayette - Games vs Colgate and at Holy Cross remain. The Leopards' best path to the playoffs is the AQ and still control destiny.

Liberty - Even with a 9-2 record, the Flames should be left out. They lost against a James Madison team at home that has not proven to be a top tier opponent. GPI just won't cut it.

Massachusetts - UMass is 4-3 and should be favored in the remaining four games. They are clearly on the ropes as 7-4 this year may not cut it and no CAA game is going to me a tap-in.

Missouri State - A 5-3 mark with three games remaining. Win all three, we may see the Bears in the playoffs. Would be hard to ignore an 8-3 team with a win over SIU. No luck at 7-4.

Northern Arizona - 5-2 with all Div I wins. Has FBS game at Ole Miss, plus road trips to Sac St and Weber State. Finish vs EWU. Like Weber State, a tough slate of games. If they get 3 of 4, they shoud be in with a lone FCS loss to Montana.

Southeastern La. - Worth keeping an eye on but would need to win AQ to make the field. Two sub-Div I games hurt the slate and the Lions can thank Alcorn State for that.

Weber State - Not sure a 7-4 Weber State team gets in. Plays at Montana this week before hosting NAU and Cal Poly. Tough stretch. Wins out, gets to 8-3 and gets AQ by virtue of head-to-head win over Griz.

Youngstown State - Road only gets tougher. SDSU, at UNI, vs ILST and then at NDSU. At 4-3, the Penguins better coast a winning streak to the finish line.



so you're telling me that 4 out of the 8 AQs won't get a home playoff game, especially when two of them aren't even playing one of the top 4 teams?

[Fear the Bird]

so you're telling me that 4 out of the 8 AQs won't get a home playoff game, especially when two of them aren't even playing one of the top 4 teams?

Anything can happen after the 4 seeds - it's based on bids and regionalization xreadx