FCS BCS Rankings 10/21

[UNIFanSince1983]

Here are this weeks FCS BCS rankings for you. Took longer than usual because I have been busy with school this week. Hope to get some good feedback again!

1. Richmond 0.995
2. Montana 0.923
3. Southern Illinois 0.888
4. Villanova 0.881
5. William & Mary 0.806
6. Northern Iowa 0.790
7. Elon 0.681
8. New Hampshire 0.628
9. Jacksonville St. 0.565
10. S Dakota St. 0.545
11. S Carolina St. 0.534
12. Umass 0.502
13. Appalachian St. 0.499
14. Stephen F. Austin 0.498
15. Delaware 0.451
16. Weber St. 0.393
17. McNeese St. 0.356
18. Cal Poly 0.296
19. Central Arkansas 0.282
20. Northern Arizona 0.253
21. Colgate 0.213
22. Liberty 0.147
23. Eastern Ky. 0.108
24. Eastern Wash 0.086
25. Montana St. 0.078

[ToTheLeft]

Thanks for this, it's another good resource for setting up rankings and such...

[eastbayaggie]

Thanks for the poll!

Out of curiosity, did you do any changes with the formulas in this week's post as you mentioned in your earlier post below?

"I may need to revise my formulas to see if it helps the point disparities. I am not sure how those work out, but I will figure out if I screwed something up or if that is just the way it works out."

[UNIFanSince1983]

I did not change anything. I noticed in the FBS BCS rankings that their disparities were very similar from top to bottom, so I thought I must be doing it right. I might look deeper into that this week if I have time.

[dgreco]

I know polls matter, but just a question, where do schools like Albany and CCSU come in number wise? at least on the non human poll aspect

[JackFan]

Nice job with the poll. What criteria do you include when comprising this poll?.. just curious

[UNIFanSince1983]

The included criteria are Percentage of points for SN Poll and the AGS Poll. I then take an average of 6 computer polls removing the highest and the lowest. It is just like BCS used in FBS.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I know polls matter, but just a question, where do schools like Albany and CCSU come in number wise? at least on the non human poll aspect

Albany comes in around 39th and CCSU comes in at 43rd. They both come in there because of receiving votes in the human polls. Neither one of them appeared in the Top 25 of any of the computer polls.

[Squealofthepig]

Albany comes in around 39th and CCSU comes in at 43rd. They both come in there because of receiving votes in the human polls. Neither one of them appeared in the Top 25 of any of the computer polls.

Might be interesting to post a "next 15" after the top 25 each week, because people will invariably ask. And maybe a quick reserved post to comment on differences people will notice - e.g., "Albany appears lower/higher due to low rankings on poll x, y z; Random CAA team X appears slightly higher due to unusual over/under ranking in computer polls Z, aa, etc". I understand the reasons for not commenting (and commend you for it), but might be helpful to quickly address why a few teams are a bit askance of what one would expect from our regular polls.

And again, major fan - definitely appreciate you doing this, and it's interesting again to see where some of the ranking drop offs occur.

[SoCalAg]

maybe a "next 25" so I can be sure Davis shows up......:)

[Squealofthepig]

maybe a "next 25" so I can be sure Davis shows up......:)

As they should! Darned scary team, and would not have been ashamed in the least if the Griz had lost down there - that game could have came out very differently!

[APPS]

The included criteria are Percentage of points for SN Poll and the AGS Poll. I then take an average of 6 computer polls removing the highest and the lowest. It is just like BCS used in FBS.

So it is the same as the GPI without the coaches poll and one less computer ranking?

[eastbayaggie]

So it is the same as the GPI without the coaches poll and one less computer ranking?

Heh.:) Basically yeah. Just slightly different ways of calculating.

The FCS BCS rankings use the exact rankings the GPI uses without the coaches poll and SELF.

The GPI ranks all teams not in the top 25 human polls as #26. On the other hand, the FCS BCS uses a percentage of the received human votes.

GPI's formula is ((Sum of 5 computer ranking numbers (removing the max and min number from the 7 used) + 3 polls used))/8

The FCS BCS formula is (% of points AGS + % of points SN + (% of Computers-high and low))/3

So... yup. The FCS BCS rankings are somewhat similar to GPI. Did I sum it right, UNIFansince1983?

It's still interesting. I also vote for "the next 15" or "the next 25."

By the way, what's your criteria for removing "SELF" over the other computer rankings and the coaches poll over the other two human rankings?

[eastbayaggie]

Heh. You're giving me an idea to compare computer polls vs. human polls on the GPI using BCS methodology.

Computer Poll: % of points of the 7 computer rankings used in the GPI(-high and low)

Human Poll: (% of points AGS + % of points SN + % of points coaches poll)/3

... and then measure human and computer biases:

Bias = human poll - computer poll

I need some feedback on this.:o

[eastbayaggie]

Heh. You're giving me an idea to compare computer polls vs. human polls on the GPI using BCS methodology.

Computer Poll: % of points of the 7 computer rankings used in the GPI(-high and low)

Human Poll: (% of points AGS + % of points SN + % of points coaches poll)/3

... and then measure human and computer biases:

Bias = human poll - computer poll

I need some feedback on this.:o

[Thumper 76]

Heh. You're giving me an idea to compare computer polls vs. human polls on the GPI using BCS methodology.

Computer Poll: % of points of the 7 computer rankings used in the GPI(-high and low)

Human Poll: (% of points AGS + % of points SN + % of points coaches poll)/3

... and then measure human and computer biases:

Bias = human poll - computer poll

I need some feedback on this.:o

Well the computers aren't exactly what I would call even close to 100% correct so your "bias" may be off more than what it really is. I mean I saw that UND is still something like 37 after losing to a NAIA? Thats a bit off if you ask me.

[eastbayaggie]

Well the computers aren't exactly what I would call even close to 100% correct so your "bias" may be off more than what it really is. I mean I saw that UND is still something like 37 after losing to a NAIA? Thats a bit off if you ask me.


My personal opinion is that both computer polls and human polls are flawed. I like to just measure the difference. Sagarin's model, which does not do a good job in ranking Division II or lower as others have mentioned, would have been the outlier thrown out in this model for ranking UND too high.

Most computer models can't measure key injuries, improvement over time, and other intangibles for instance. Human polls have their other biases.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Heh.:) Basically yeah. Just slightly different ways of calculating.

The FCS BCS rankings use the exact rankings the GPI uses without the coaches poll and SELF.

The GPI ranks all teams not in the top 25 human polls as #26. On the other hand, the FCS BCS uses a percentage of the received human votes.

GPI's formula is ((Sum of 5 computer ranking numbers (removing the max and min number from the 7 used) + 3 polls used))/8

The FCS BCS formula is (% of points AGS + % of points SN + (% of Computers-high and low))/3

So... yup. The FCS BCS rankings are somewhat similar to GPI. Did I sum it right, UNIFansince1983?

It's still interesting. I also vote for "the next 15" or "the next 25."

By the way, what's your criteria for removing "SELF" over the other computer rankings and the coaches poll over the other two human rankings?

Yeah this is basically it. It is very similar to the GPI. Last year at one point I stumbled across the site that says how they calculate the BCS rankings for FBS, and wondered what it would look like for FCS.

I do not remember why I removed SELF over the other computer rankings. Some of it had to do with ease of finding the rankings, and what not. I also use Massey's BCS ranking which is quite different from his normal ranking which I believe is what is used in the GPI.

I eliminated the coaches poll because the BCS for FBS doesn't include coaches polls, and I wanted it to be as close of a representation as possible. I felt TSN is similar to the AP, and I feel AGS is a better representation than Coaches anyways. I can maybe go and post the next 15 or just post the rest of the teams that have any sort of percentage.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Here is the rest of the teams that have any sort of percentage...

26. Furman 0.076
27. Holy Cross 0.075
28. UC Davis 0.060
29. Lafayette 0.047
30. James Madison 0.037
31. Florida A&M 0.031
32. Eastern Illinois 0.027
33. Prairie View 0.023
34. Ga Southern 0.014
35. Missiouri St. 0.008
36. Morgan St. 0.007
37. Chattanooga 0.005
38. North Dakota 0.004
39. Albany 0.004
40. Youngstown St. 0.004
41. Butler 0.003
42. SE Louisiana 0.003
43. Central Conn 0.002
44. Gardner Webb 0.002
45. Hofstra 0.002
46. Old Dominion 0.002
47. Jacksonville 0.001
48. Brown 0.001
49. Maine 0.001
50. Grambling 0.001