Big Sky Power Rankings 10-19

[JALMOND]

As we begin the second half of the year, the picture is getting clear. Last week we had six possible contenders, now we are down to three. Whether that gets mirky (the number goes up) this week, or clearer (number goes down) remains to be seen. This week brings some interesting matchups as we have four conference and one non conference games on the docket. Here are this week's power rankings in the Big Sky. This week (last week). All are my opinion and all are open for discussion.

1. Montana (1)---It's not been pretty and the Grizzlies have not been dominating, but they keep winning as they showed once again in a close one last week against the pesky Eastern Washington team. Winning is a good thing and the Grizzlies have had nothing but good things all year. This week, they head down to play the upstart Sacramento State team. Continuing the good things?

2. Weber State (2)---After a strong wake up call at home three weeks ago against Montana State, the Wildcats have dispensed with Eastern Washington two weeks ago and Sacramento State last week. No getting by in those two games, either, as the Wildcats made sure the outcome was decided far before the game actually ended. The game with Montana is shaping up to be a good one. Not so fast as the Wildcats need to take care of Northern Colorado this week. Don't look past the Bears.

3. Northern Arizona (3)---The Jacks looked like world beaters in taking care of Portland State in the rain last weekend. They play their home games indoors, but took care of the elements (snow and rain) these last two weeks. This week they do not have to be concerned with the elements as they head home to face Idaho State. Can they keep the season rolling?

4. Eastern Washington (5)---A loss, yes, but a close loss for the Eagles in harsh confines at Montana last week. The Eagles typically do play the Grizzlies tough in Missoula and last week was no different. Still, a loss is a loss and the Eagles are too close for comfort to the edge of being playoff eligible, if the NCAA overrules the postseason ban. This week, they need a win at home against Montana State. Can they beat the Bobcats again?

5. Montana State (4)---So the Bobcats got the win over South Dakota last week. The concern was how they got it, as they were taken into overtime by the transitional Coyotes. This whole season has been interesting for the Bobcats, beating Weber State on the road, yet struggling against South Dakota and Dixie State. This week they have to go on the road to Eastern Washington, a team that has had the Bobcats number in recent years.

6. Sacramento State (6)---The Hornets were on the verge of making a statement that they do belong last week, and then Weber State routed them out of Ogden. Typical fashion for the Hornets. They still have the opportunity to make this a special season this week, as they can get back to being relevent. They welcome the mighty Montana team to Sacramento this week. Once again I ask, how good is this Hornet team?

7. Portland State (7)---The years that the Vikings were dominate at home are slowly fading away as they did not put up much resistance last week against Northern Arizona. The Jacks could do anything and the Vikings had no answers. They head out of conference this week as they welcome their former DII rivals, UC-Davis. The Aggies played Montana tough earlier in the year, how will the Vikings do against them?

8. Northern Colorado (8)---In a game that no one really cared other than the fans of both teams, the Bears showed some semblance of a Big Sky team as they too, routed Idaho State. The offense finally clicked and the defense was able to stop people this time. Is it a confidence builder? This week, they welcome Weber State to Greeley, a good team that the Bears gave fits to last year on the road. Can they keep it close enough for a shot?

9. Idaho State (9)---In what was maybe their best shot for a win this year, the Bengals fell at home to Northern Colorado last week. Another dismal season is on the horizon for them. But still, nowhere to go but up and this weekend, they head to Northern Arizona for another shot at a win. Not much of a shot, but it could happen.

[hawkssb04]

I don't have any arguments with this. I think Eastern Washington and Montana State could go either way in the rankings, but this weeks game will decide that for us I suppose. Both squads aren't looking terribly great as of late. Losing Boyce is huge for the Eagles and the near loss against South Dakota can't be encouraging for the Bobcats.

[Native]

"1. Montana (1)---Some things change, some do not, like the Grizzlies still on top. Granted their wins have not been pretty and some questions still remain this late in the year, but after dispatching Eastern Washington, they are still undefeated, and still are the team to beat in the Big Sky. .."

In Big Sky conference-only games, UM is 1st in scoring offense with 43.7 points, 6th in scoring defense, allowing 28.3 points, 4th in total offense, averaging 425.7 yards, and 8th in total defense, allowing 456 yards per game.


"2. Weber State (2)---Last week's game with Sacramento State was supposed to show how good the Hornets were. Instead it showed how good the Wildcats are. After getting a rude wakeup call at home against Montana State, the Wildcats hapless victims included the Hornets as well as Eastern Washington..."

In Big Sky conference-only games, WSU is 2nd in scoring offense with 36.2 points, 2nd in scoring defense, allowing 19 points, 1st in total offense, averaging 463.2 yards, and 5th in total defense, allowing 382.6 yards per game.


"3. Northern Arizona (3)---The Jacks could be playing the best football in the conference right now. Pretty much doing whatever they wanted last week at Portland State, they are quietly moving up. They gained notice when they took the Griz to overtime and have been building on that ever since..."

In Big Sky conference-only games, NAU is 3rd in scoring offense with 34.0 points, 5th in scoring defense, allowing 25.2 points, 2nd in total offense, averaging 450.8 yards, and 3rd in total defense, allowing 339.5 yards per game.


There are three stories on Weber State:

1. The offense has played realtively mistake-free football for two games in a row.
2. The defense has been very effective for two games in a row.
3. For two weeks in a row, the Wildcats have played well for four quarters of football.

[wapiti]

Looks good to me.

The top 4: UM, WSU, NAU, EWU are the top of the Big Sky class.

5 and 6: MSU and Sac State are good enough to beat one of the top 4, but are a half step behind.

7 and 8: NC, and PSU are good enough to beat 5 or 6, but are another half step behind them. It would be an upset to beat one of the top 4.

9: ISU, come on Idaho State we need to see some improvement. Easily a full step behing 7 and 8. It would be an upset to beat any other Big Sky team.

[HLNgriz]

Everyone better focus on this weeks matchup. I will be interested how EWU responds, major bummer losing Boyce. He was great at EWU.

[wapiti]

Everyone better focus on this weeks matchup. I will be interested how EWU responds, major bummer losing Boyce. He was great at EWU.

The Griz are going to beat Sac state.
So that being said, they should start focusing and preparing for Weber State.

[Native]

The Griz are going to beat Sac state.
So that being said, they should start focusing and preparing for Weber State.

Halloween is shaping up to be a monster of a matchup! xthumbsupx

Weber State stumbled through the first five games until stabilizing the past two weeks, while Montana has displayed numerous vulnerabilities of its own, despite its undefeated run so far.

[Uncle Rico's Clan]

The Griz are going to beat Sac state.
So that being said, they should start focusing and preparing for Weber State.

And that's why Sac St. is a trap game, lets hope the team doesn't overlook the hornets.

[Native]

And that's why Sac St. is a trap game, lets hope the team doesn't overlook the hornets.

Same as UNC for Weber State. Last year, the Wildcats almost got caught, escaping with a 17-10 victory over the Bears.

[Ronbo]

Montana hasn't even put together two good halves of football yet. Look out when they start playing a whole game instead of just one half.

[Native]

Montana hasn't even put together two good halves of football yet. Look out when they start playing a whole game instead of just one half.

Could they hold off on doing that for a couple more weeks? xlolx

[GOKATS]

Montana hasn't even put together two good halves of football yet. Look out when they start playing a whole game instead of just one half.

SOS........xblahblahxxblahblahxxblahblahxxblahblah xxblahblahx

[Native]

Weber and Montana State could still get to 8 DI wins by winning out, in the process knocking Montana down to 8-2 and maybe even out of the post-season. Not likely, but possible. Northern Arizona could get to nine wins by winning out.

Weber and Northern Arizona cannot both win out, since they face each other in Ogden on 14 November. NAU, MSU and WSU could conceivably all three finish the season with 8 DI wins, if they each win out the remainder of their schedules except for the Lumberjack-Wildcat showdown in Ogden. If this is the case, Montana State would win the Big Sky conference and auto-bid outright by virtue of having only one conference loss.

Following the Week 7 games of 17 October, here are the DI records of the current Big Sky contenders:

Montana (5-0 DI): No losses and one top 25 win over Cal Poly with five DI games remaining, including Weber and Montana State. Could sustain one loss and still win a share of the Big Sky conference championship and an invitation to participate in the playoffs. UM would still have eight DI wins if they lose two regular season games.

Northern Arizona (4-2 DI): With one loss to an FBS team, one loss in overtime to Montana, and five games remaining, the Lumberjacks are firmly in control of their own destiny. Upcoming games include Ole Miss, followed by Weber State and Eastern Washington. NAU could finish with nine wins and a share of the Big Sky title by winning out.

Weber State (4-3 DI): The Wildcats are not a schedule victim yet, but with three close losses to two FBS teams and Montana State, they almost certainly must win out. The 'cats have one top 25 win over Eastern Washington with four games to go, including Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly, all ranked top 25. WSU could claim the Big Sky title and auto-bid outright by winning out to finish with 8 DI wins. If Weber loses to Montana, the Wildcats could still theoretically earn an at-large invitation by otherwise winning out to achieve the minimum 7 DI wins, including 3 quality top 25 victories, but the competition among the other remaining top 25 teams would be fierce.

Montana State (3-2 DI): the Bobcats have one top 25 win over Weber and a loss to NAU, with five games remaining. MSU could achieve 8 DI wins and at least a share of the Big Sky title by winning out. To do so they must beat Eastern Washington on the road and Montana at home in the final game of the regular season. Either Weber of Eastern Washington would have to knock off NAU for MSU to win the Big Sky title outright.

Eastern Washington (3-3 DI): EWU has no "quality" wins, and has sustained losses to both Weber and Montana. With only four games remaining, they have no chance for 8 DI wins. Even if the NCAA post season ban is lifted, the Eags' resume is too weak for seven wins to make a case for an invitation.

[Walkon79]

MSU @ EWU is sure to wreck one season. Hope it's the Eags

[uofmman1122]

Weber and Montana State could still get to 8 DI wins by winning out, in the process knocking Montana down to 8-2 and maybe even out of the post-season. Not likely, but possible. Northern Arizona could get to nine wins by winning out.

Weber and Northern Arizona cannot both win out, since they face each other in Ogden on 14 November. NAU, MSU and WSU could conceivably all three finish the season with 8 DI wins, if they each win out the remainder of their schedules except for the Lumberjack-Wildcat showdown in Ogden. If this is the case, Montana State would win the Big Sky conference and auto-bid outright by virtue of having only one conference loss.

Following the Week 7 games of 17 October, here are the DI records of the current Big Sky contenders:

Montana (5-0 DI): No losses and one top 25 win over Cal Poly with five DI games remaining, including Weber and Montana State. Could sustain one loss and still win a share of the Big Sky conference championship and an invitation to participate in the playoffs. UM would still have eight DI wins if they lose two regular season games.

Northern Arizona (4-2 DI): With one loss to an FBS team, one loss in overtime to Montana, one top 25 victory over Montana State, and five games remaining, the Lumberjacks are firmly in control of their own destiny. Upcoming games include Ole Miss, followed by Weber State and Eastern Washington. NAU could finish with nine wins and a share of the Big Sky title by winning out.

Weber State (4-3 DI): The Wildcats are not a schedule victim yet, but with three close losses to two FBS teams and Montana State, they almost certainly must win out. The 'cats have one top 25 win over Eastern Washington with four games to go, including Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. WSU could claim the Big Sky title and auto-bid outright by winning out to finish with 8 DI wins. If Weber loses to Montana, the Wildcats could still theoretically earn an at-large invitation by otherwise winning out to achieve the minimum 7 DI wins, including 3 quality top 25 victories, but the competition among the other remaining top 25 teams would be fierce.

Montana State (3-2 DI): the Bobcats have one top 25 win over Weber and a loss to NAU, with five games remaining. MSU could achieve 8 DI wins and at least a share of the Big Sky title by winning out. To do so they must beat Eastern Washington on the road and Montana at home in the final game of the regular season. Either Weber of Eastern Washington would have to knock off NAU for MSU to win the Big Sky title outright.

Eastern Washington (3-3 DI): EWU has no "quality" wins, and has sustained losses to both Weber and Montana. With only four games remaining, they have no chance for 8 DI wins. Even if the NCAA post season ban is lifted, the Eags' resume is too weak for seven wins to make a case for an invitation.Why do you count some teams as top 25 wins, but not others? If EWU is a top 25 win for WSU, why isn't it one for Montana? It's the same team...

If I'm counting correctly, Montana has 2 wins over teams currently in the top 25. Weber has 0, MSU has 1, and NAU has 0.

[Native]

Why do you count some teams as top 25 wins, but not others? If EWU is a top 25 win for WSU, why isn't it one for Montana? It's the same team...

If I'm counting correctly, Montana has 2 wins over teams currently in the top 25. Weber has 0, MSU has 1, and NAU has 0.

Good catch. No intentional slight. The rankings change every week. I am trying to account for the ranking at the time of the game.

EWU was #15 in the AGS poll and favored by more than a TD at the time of the Weber game. The Eags had slipped to 22 AGS (higher in other polls) when they played the Griz last weekend and dropped of the charts after the loss at WA GRIZ. Cal Poly was ranked 13th going into Missoula. Northern Arizona has not been ranked on AGS until this week. WSU was ranked 13th when the Wildcats were taken down by MSU.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

No intentional slight. The rankings change every week. EWU was #14 and favored by more than a TD at the time of the Weber game. Cal Poly was ranked pretty highly at the time of the Montana game. Can't remember what EWU was ranked last week. Do you recall?

21

[gbhmt]

SOS........xblahblahxxblahblahxxblahblahxxblahblah xxblahblahx

Clearly you haven't watched a single Griz game this year if you don't believe that.

[bpcats]

Rankings are right on.

I don't see MSU beating EWU this weekend. They have owned us for the previous 6-7 years and I don't see that changing.

It would be a tough game with a fully healthy team hitting on all cylinders and that is not us.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/articles/2009/10/21/bobcats/football/000injuries.txt

[Ronbo]

Montana (5-0 DI): No losses and one top 25 win over Cal Poly with five DI games remaining, including Weber and Montana State. Could sustain one loss and still win a share of the Big Sky conference championship and an invitation to participate in the playoffs. UM would still have eight DI wins if they lose two regular season games.



Correction Native. 4 wins over top 25 teams. Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, UC Davis.xrulesxxthumbsupx

10/19/2009 GPI Top 25
1. Richmond (1.00)
2. Montana (2.25)
3. Villanova (3.25)
4. S Illinois (4.50)
5. William & Mary (4.63)
6. Northern Iowa (5.75)
7. Jacksonville St (9.25)
8. New Hampshire (10.00)
9. Elon (10.50)
10. S Dakota St (11.25)
11. Massachusetts (12.50)
12. Delaware (12.75)
13T. SF Austin (13.50)
13T. S Carolina St (13.50)
15. N Arizona (15.88)
16. Weber St (16.25)
17. Cal Poly SLO (18.75)
18. Appalachian St (20.50)
19. McNeese St (21.25)
20. Cent Arkansas (21.88)
21. Montana St (22.00)
22. E Washington (22.38)
23. UC Davis (22.75)
24. Liberty (22.88)
25. Lafayette (25.00)

[JackFan]

It seems like the last three games on the schedule will decide the fate of the Jacks, Ole Miss-Weber-Eastern Wash... a brutal streach. have no problem seeing our guys at #3 in the sky at this point in the season

[hawkssb04]

Correction Native. 4 wins over top 25 teams. Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, UC Davis.xrulesxxthumbsupx

10/19/2009 GPI Top 25
1. Richmond (1.00)
2. Montana (2.25)
3. Villanova (3.25)
4. S Illinois (4.50)
5. William & Mary (4.63)
6. Northern Iowa (5.75)
7. Jacksonville St (9.25)
8. New Hampshire (10.00)
9. Elon (10.50)
10. S Dakota St (11.25)
11. Massachusetts (12.50)
12. Delaware (12.75)
13T. SF Austin (13.50)
13T. S Carolina St (13.50)
15. N Arizona (15.88)
16. Weber St (16.25)
17. Cal Poly SLO (18.75)
18. Appalachian St (20.50)
19. McNeese St (21.25)
20. Cent Arkansas (21.88)
21. Montana St (22.00)
22. E Washington (22.38)
23. UC Davis (22.75)
24. Liberty (22.88)
25. Lafayette (25.00)

The problem being that UC Davis and NAU are probably the only legit Top 25 teams in there, and UC Davis wasn't ranked when Montana squeeked by them. Eastern and Cal Poly shouldn't even be ranked right now.

[Native]

It seems like the last three games on the schedule will decide the fate of the Jacks, Ole Miss-Weber-Eastern Wash... a brutal streach. have no problem seeing our guys at #3 in the sky at this point in the season

Don't forget that Cal Poly beat South Dakota State. They may not make the playoffs because of schedule limitations, but the Mustangs are a legit top 25 team.