FCS At-Large Elimination - Week 7

[SumItUp]

How many teams will have 7 D1 qualifying wins this year? After the seventh week of play, 65 of the 107 FCS teams still have an opportunity to reach 7 wins against D1 opponents. Twelve teams were eliminated this week with a loss. The bubble teams that cannot afford another loss is at 20. To view a list of wins/losses, D1 wins, and D1 games remaining for each of the FCS teams, go to FCS Won-Loss through Week 7 (10/17/2009) (http://bit.ly/2m2Mfk)

Elimination Bubble (20) - Bethune Cookman, Citadel, Illinois State, Jacksonville, James Madison, Nicholls State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, Old Dominion, Sacramento State, Sam Houston State, San Diego, Southeastern Louisiana, Stony Brook, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, Texas State, Towson, UC Davis, Wagner,

Eliminated by Week 4 (2) - Indiana State, Savannah State
Eliminated in Week 5 (9) - Austin Peay, Georgetown, Idaho State, Northeastern, Portland State, Robert Morris, Sacred Heart, Southeast Missouri State, Western Carolina
Eliminated in Week 6 (9) - Campbell, Morehead State, Murray State, Northern Colorado, North Dakota State, Northwestern State, St. Francis, Tennessee-Martin, Valparaiso
Eliminated in Week 7 (12) - Charleston Southern, Davidson, Delaware State, Duquesne, Lehigh, Maine, Rhode Island, Samford, Southern Utah, Virginia Military Institute, Western Illinois, Wofford

Ineligible (10) - Bryant, Central Arkansas, Chattanooga, Eastern Washington, Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, North Dakota, Presbyterian, South Dakota, Winston-Salem

[Saint3333]

Given the field this year it may be safe to say that the chance of a 7 win team making the field are minimal at best. There isn't a dominate team this year, but it may be the deepest field we've seen in awhile.

[txst80]

Southeastern Louisiana beat Sam Houston yesterday. I don't think they were eliminated yesterday.

[SumItUp]

Southeastern Louisiana beat Sam Houston yesterday. I don't think they were eliminated yesterday.

Thanks for pointing that out. My apologies. It has been corrected.xoopsx

[UNHWildCats]

A side note. Colgate becomes the first at-large eligible team by collecting its 7th Div I win yesterday.

[Umass74]

Given the field this year it may be safe to say that the chance of a 7 win team making the field are minimal at best. There isn't a dominate team this year, but it may be the deepest field we've seen in awhile.

Yes, I think there's a good chance this year that a really decent team could be left out. Even an 8-3 team from a power conference could be in trouble if they are on the wrong end of some conference tie-breakers.

[JMUNJ08]

Love this thread every week. Straightforward and you can't argue with the numbers.xthumbsupx

[skinny_uncle]

Good info. I'm glad someone has the time to track this.
xthumbsupx

[SumItUp]

(JMUNJ08 & skinny_uncle) Thanks for the feedback.

[89Hen]

Given the field this year it may be safe to say that the chance of a 7 win team making the field are minimal at best. There isn't a dominate team this year, but it may be the deepest field we've seen in awhile.


Yes, I think there's a good chance this year that a really decent team could be left out. Even an 8-3 team from a power conference could be in trouble if they are on the wrong end of some conference tie-breakers.
I dunno, I'm kinda having a hard time finding 16 worthy teams and I'm seeing a LOT of 4 loss teams developing.

I'm sure that somebody has done the math on most of the conferences but here are my takes and predictions on how many 3 loss teams they will have...

SoCon - (TWO 3 loss teams) Elon and AppSt are in the drivers seat. Don't forget that Furman still has Auburn and Chatty still has Alabama. For all intents and purposes they are both sitting on three losses, as is GSU. All three still have to play App. App can basically eliminate nearly half the SoCon in the next three weeks.

Big Sky - (ONE 3 loss team) Weber is cooked. They are at three losses with Montana and CalPoly still to go. EWU is out. That leaves Montana, NAU and Montana State. I'm going to go out on a limb and say MSU loses to EWU and UM... done. NAU still has Ole Miss which puts them at 3 losses. If they trip to EWU or Weber, they will have 4

CAA - (FIVE 3 loss teams) UMass and UNH really do catch a break by only having to face two of UR, VU, W&M and UD each. UMass is on 2 and have UR this week. A loss there means they have to win out, but they won't face any more ranked teams. UNH has tons of wiggle room as does UR, VU and W&M. UD can only take one more loss and have Navy and Nova to finish the season. As much as I'd like to say they can do it, their chances were dashed by that blocked FG to UR.

MVC - (THREE 3 loss teams) SIU, SDSU and UNI will make it. YSU faces all three in row starting this week.

Southland - (TWO 3 loss teams) SFA is in and McNeese has a great shot to keep it to three. SELA is the other 2 loss (eligible) team but has MSU, SFA and UCA left... they're done.

PL, MEAC and OVC should be one bid conferences this year. Colgate/HC/Lafayette all still play each other. FAMU's loss to SCSt leaves them with no quality wins. Unless JSU falls apart or becomes eligible they are killing the chances of the conference to get another bid.

At-Large: CalPoly can only get to 8-3 with three non-counters (Dixie, UND, USD). Liberty's loss to JMU is looking worse and worse and will have no quality wins. G-W can get to 9-2 also, but have two DII games in there so are really 7-2.

Bottom line I don't see ANY 8-3 teams on the outside looking in. xpeacex

[Libertine]

UND and USD are both counters this year.

[aggiemba]

Bottom line I don't see ANY 8-3 teams on the outside looking in. xpeacex


Can I assume that ANY includes UC Davis also? If so, I'm totally with you on that one.