Sagarin FCS Top 30 on Oct 10

[eastbayaggie]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

1. Richmond 5-0
2. Montana 5-0
3. Northern Iowa 5-1
4. Villanova 5-1
5. William & Mary 5-1
6. New Hampshire 5-0
7. Elon 5-1
8. Jacksonville State 4-2
9. Delaware 4-2
10. South Dakota State 4-1
11. Southern Illinois 4-1
12. Massachusetts 3-2
13. Northern Arizona 3-2
14. Central Arkansas 4-1
15. Stephen F. Austin 4-1
16. Cal Poly-SLO 2-3
17. James Madison 2-3
18. Weber State 3-3
19. UC Davis 2-3
20. SC State 4-1
21. McNeese State 3-2
22. Eastern Washington 4-2
23. Montana State 3-2
24. Furman 3-2
25. Appalachian State 3-2
26. Harvard 3-1
27. Liberty 3-2
28. Georgia Southern 3-3
29. Florida A&M 4-1
30. North Dakota 3-2

[ValleyChamp]

Montana 2nd? Villanova two spots ahead of the undefeated UNH team that just beat them? I call BS on those two.

[darell1976]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

1. Richmond 5-0
2. Montana 5-0
3. Northern Iowa 5-1
4. Villanova 5-1
5. William & Mary 5-1
6. New Hampshire 5-0
7. Elon 5-1
8. Jacksonville State 4-2
9. Delaware 4-2
10. South Dakota State 4-1
11. Southern Illinois 4-1
12. Massachusetts 3-2
13. Northern Arizona 3-2
14. Central Arkansas 4-1
15. Stephen F. Austin 4-1
16. Cal Poly-SLO 2-3
17. James Madison 2-3
18. Weber State 3-3
19. UC Davis 2-3
20. SC State 4-1
21. McNeese State 3-2
22. Eastern Washington 4-2
23. Montana State 3-2
24. Furman 3-2
25. Appalachian State 3-2
26. Harvard 3-1
27. Liberty 3-2
28. Georgia Southern 3-3
29. Florida A&M 4-1
30. North Dakota 3-2

:Dxthumbsupx

[Silenoz]

Well we are one of the few undefeated with wins over 13, 16 and 19...

[darell1976]

Well we are one of the few undefeated with wins over 13, 16 and 19...

And you have #30 coming to your backyard next season!!xthumbsupx

[Native]

Montana 2nd? Villanova two spots ahead of the undefeated UNH team that just beat them? I call BS on those two.

C'mon! It's not a weekly poll!

Sagarin's system is a formula that considers the body of work for the entire season. It is what it is, no more, no less.

[Native]

Here is an even bigger shocker, the top 30 FCS teams ranked by this week's Sagarin "predictor" ratings:

1 Northern Iowa 74.44
2 Richmond 70.76
3 Jacksonville State 70.31
4 Villanova 68.87
5 William & Mary 67.11
6 Montana 67.07
7 Central Arkansas 66.91
8 South Dakota State 66.73
9 Elon 66.06
10 Massachusetts 65.97
11 Southern Illinois 64.69
12 Delaware 64.44
13 New Hampshire 63.61
14 James Madison 63.01
15 Weber State 61.85
16 Stephen F. Austin 60.49
17 Appalachian State 59.87
18 Cal Poly-SLO 59.82
19 McNeese State 59.45
20 Eastern Washington 59.42
21 Northern Arizona 59.24
22 Harvard 58.14
23 Liberty 57.93
24 SC State 57.29
25 Furman 57.16
26 UC Davis 56.48
27 Chattanooga 56.41
28 Southern Utah 56.12
29 Florida A&M 56.03
30 Lafayette 55.53 141

Presumably, the team with the higher predictor rating would win on a neutral field. This week's home field advantage is 2.98.

[UNIFanSince1983]

For some reason I have tried to figure this out, but how do you get the spread from the Sagarin predictor numbers?

[ASU_Fanatic]

ASU 25th I know we may be having a bit of a down year, but that's redicolous.

[93henfan]

For some reason I have tried to figure this out, but how do you get the spread from the Sagarin predictor numbers?

Difference in predictor number plus 2.98 for home field.

For instance, if UNI hosted Richmond:

1 Northern Iowa 74.44
2 Richmond 70.76

74.44 - 70.76 + 2.98 = Richmond is +6.5 underdog (6.66 to be exact) according to Sagarin

If Richmond hosted:
(70.76 - 74.44) + 2.98 = Richmond is +0.5 dog (0.7 to be exact)

Bear in mind, Vegas doesn't care about computer ratings. When they set a line, their sole goal is to draw an equal number of bets for each of the teams in each matchup. More cha-ching for them as they take a cut of every payout.

[ashram]

ASU 25th I know we may be having a bit of a down year, but that's redicolous.

It's not an opinion; it's a formula. You can disagree with the formula's results' relevance to ranking, but I don't see how it could be considered ridiculous, or "redicolous" even. xpeacex

[Native]

For some reason I have tried to figure this out, but how do you get the spread from the Sagarin predictor numbers?

The predictor ratings are the next to last numbers in blue at the end of each row.

This week the home field advantage is 2.98.

Example:

Northern Iowa predictor this week is 74.44
Richmond predictor this week 70.76

On a neutral field, Northern Iowa would be favored by 3.68 points:
74.44-70.76 = 3.68

At Richmond, the homefield advantage would reduce the Northern Iowa point spread to only 0.70 points:
74.44-70.76-2.98= 0.70

At Northern Iowa, the homefield advantage would increase the Northern Iowa point spread to 6.66 points:
74.44-70.76+2.98= 6.66

[93henfan]

The predictor ratings are the next to last numbers in blue at the end of each row.

This week the home field advantage is 2.98.

Example:

Northern Iowa predictor this week is 74.44
Richmond predictor this week 70.76

On a neutral field, Northern Iowa would be favored by 3.68 points:
74.44-70.76 = 3.68

At Richmond, the homefield advantage would reduce the Northern Iowa point spread to only 0.70 points:
74.44-70.76-2.98= 0.70

At Northern Iowa, the homefield advantage would increase the Northern Iowa point spread to 6.66 points:
74.44-70.76+2.98= 6.66

Our math checks out! :D

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1431778&postcount=10

[ASU_Fanatic]

Well I definitely dont agree with the formula.

[uofmman1122]

Well I definitely dont agree with the formula.Because you didn't like the results, or because there's a fault in the formula? xrolleyesx xlolx

[apaladin]

Three teams with losing records(2-3) in the top 20.

[proasu89]

It's not an opinion; it's a formula. You can disagree with the formula's results' relevance to ranking, but I don't see how it could be considered ridiculous, or "redicolous" even. xpeacex

Sounds like something you wouldn't want. xsmiley_wix And yes, 3-2 with a OT win over El Cid and a win over 0-6 Central... 17 seems a little high to me.xpeacex

[eastbayaggie]

Three teams with losing records(2-3) in the top 20.

#16 Cal Poly 2-3

Losses to:

Ohio University (FBS)
San Jose State (FBS)
#2 Montana


#17 James Madison 2-3

Losses to:

Maryland (FBS)
Hofstra
#1 Richmond


#19 UC Davis 2-3

Losses to:

#34 Fresno State (FBS)
#5 Boise State (FBS)
#2 Montana

[UNHFan99]

I dont hate the sagarin because it is also the FCS best indication of where we stand vs FBS at the end of the season. If nova or bill and mary win out their rating will be very good vs FBS.

[gophoenix]

I dont hate the sagarin because it is also the FCS best indication of where we stand vs FBS at the end of the season. If nova or bill and mary win out their rating will be very good vs FBS.

Sort of. It treats all non-DI games as equal, which is completely untrue and skews FCS results, and thus skews FBS results also. Someone, like Massey, is a better indication on how all teams pan out together and lets you filter based on FCS or DI complete. I personally think this is a better indication overall.

[igo4uni]

#16 Cal Poly 2-3

Losses to:

Ohio University (FBS)
San Jose State (FBS)
#2 Montana


#17 James Madison 2-3

Losses to:

Maryland (FBS)
Hofstra
#1 Richmond


#19 UC Davis 2-3

Losses to:

#34 Fresno State (FBS)
#5 Boise State (FBS)
#2 Montana

east coast bias.