Sagarin Predictors-Week 5

[KAUMASS]

Bored to tears today, not much work in sales at the moment.

Just for fun, I'm going to follow Sagarians predictors for the rest of the season for the CAA. (Can't pass it up as so many CAA teams are ranked) and I will report in prior to the playoffs. Sagarian's predictor is still relying on some pre-season rankings, but they should shake out in a few weeks.

I do not support Sagarian and his computer rankings either way, it is just interesting to me. Don't read too much into this thread, it has been debated to death over the last few years wether computers work or not. I'm just curious to see how it plays out the rest of the year... If anyone has done this in any prior season, please weigh in.

Here are the computer predictions for some of this weeks games. They look ok to me except for the Wofford game. Should be a little closer...JMU and UNH on the road with long trips, maybe a few less points. We'll see. *home team

CAA
Hofstra*-JMU JMU by 16
Maine*-Del UD by 3
UNH-Towson* UNH by 15
NE*-HC HC by 2
'Nova*-WM 'Nova by 1
UMass-UOPEN UMass by 20
Richmond-UBYE UR by 23


Others
Brown-URI* URI by 2
App-Citadel* App by 4
'Gate-Cornell* 'Gate by 1
EKU-E.Illinois* E.Illinois by 2
Elon-Furman* Furman by 1
MS/Weber * Weber by 11
SDSU-Cal Poly* SDSU by 2
GS/Wofford * Wofford by 8

[OL FU]

Bored to tears today, not much work in sales at my job at the moment.

Just for fun, I'm going to follow Sagarians predictors for the rest of the season for the CAA. (Can't pass it up as so many CAA teams are ranked) and I will report in prior to the playoffs. Sagarian's predictor is still relying on some pre-season rankings, but they should shake out in a few weeks.

I do not support Sagarian and his computer rankings either way, it is just interesting to me. Don't read too much into this thread, it has been debated to death over the last few years wether computers work or not. I'm just curious to see how it plays out the rest of the year... If anyone has done this in any prior season, please weigh in.

Here are the computer predictions for some of this weeks games. They look ok to me except for the Wofford game. Should be a little closer...JMU and UNH on the road with long trips, maybe a few less points. We'll see. *home team

CAA
Hofstra*-JMU JMU by 16
Maine*-Del UD by 3
UNH-Towson* UNH by 15
NE*-HC HC by 2
'Nova*-WM 'Nova by 1
UMass-UOPEN UMass by 20
Richmond-UBYE UR by 23


Others
Brown-URI* URI by 2
App-Citadel* App by 4
'Gate-Cornell* 'Gate by 1
EKU-E.Illinois* E.Illinois by 2
Elon-Furman* Furman by 1
MS/Weber * Weber by 11
SDSU-Cal Poly* SDSU by 2
GS/Wofford * Wofford by 8


I have never particularly had a lot of confidence in Sagarin especially this early in the seaon, but I'll take it.

Is that with the home field advantage of 3 to 4 points added in?

[KAUMASS]

I have never particularly had a lot of confidence in Sagarin especially this early in the seaon, but I'll take it.

Is that with the home field advantage of 3 to 4 points added in?

Yup...xthumbsupx

I don't have much confidence this early in the season either, but I have never tracked it either...

[Ivytalk]

Sagarian? Is he the Armenian cousin of Sagarin?:p

[KAUMASS]

Sagarian? Is he the Armenian cousin of Sagarin?:p

No, just the wrong spelling version by a UMass grad.. Graduated UMass but can't spell Massachussetts either.xlolxxpeacex


Sucks that you can't edit the thread....

[OL FU]

Sagarian? Is he the Armenian cousin of Sagarin?:p

I thought he was a Greek philosopherxconfusedx

[Old Cage]

I am very confidant that we will cover versus UOPEN.

[Ivytalk]

I thought he was a Greek philosopherxconfusedx

Oh, yeah, Socrates' good buddy!xeyebrowx

[Bam]

I know it's just the OVC, but the EKU v EIU game should be a good one?

[CID1990]

I think the Wofford prediction is spot-on. They have one self-destruct in ten years and suddenly they aren't picked to beat what will be a lower-half-SoCon GSU.

I thknk they will overcome their issues from last week and will be at least .500 in the SoCon.

[ASUG8]

I think the Wofford prediction is spot-on. They have one self-destruct in ten years and suddenly they aren't picked to beat what will be a lower-half-SoCon GSU.

I thknk they will overcome their issues from last week and will be at least .500 in the SoCon.

What are your thoughts on the Cit/ASU spread?

[srgrizizen]

"JMU and UNH on the road with long trips"

LOL! The Griz just got back from Flagstaff, and many UM students from Montana drive farther than that to go home for the weekend. xlolxxlolx

[srgrizizen]

By farther than that, of course, I mean farther than JMU and UNH are traveling - not farther than from Flagstaff to Missoula.

[KAUMASS]

6 or more hours sitting on a bus with large people blows. It is not comfortable and can wear on you before a game....especially if someone near you has gas for the trip. Have you ever tried taking a dump in one of those bus toilets?...god awful ..

Does anyone know if JMU is flying or driving?

[Uncle Buck]

...

Does anyone know if JMU is flying or driving?

I would imagine charter into Republic Airport and then making the short bus ride.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

6 or more hours sitting on a bus with large people blows. It is not comfortable and can wear on you before a game....especially if someone near you has gas for the trip. Have you ever tried taking a dump in one of those bus toilets?...god awful ..

Does anyone know if JMU is flying or driving?

UNH is flying....I know you asked about JMUxpeacex

[Gordon Shumway]

"JMU and UNH on the road with long trips"

LOL! The Griz just got back from Flagstaff, and many UM students from Montana drive farther than that to go home for the weekend. xlolxxlolx

I was thinking the same thing. A 400+ mile bus ride can't be fun, if they are actually taking a bus (doubtful). But let's get real. I live in Central Florida and can drive that far without ever leaving the state.

Edit: I see yorkcounty has verified a flight for UNH.

[RabidRabbit]

Unfortunately cost cutting has hit the SDSU travel budget. SDSU bussed to Il St (14 hr trip) and will be bussing to Mo St in 10 days. They are chartering (along with boosters) into SLO to play Cal Poly. I'm sure that they'll bus to WIU also. Better be a flight to Youngstown. Yowzer, that's a long ways east! xeekx

[CID1990]

What are your thoughts on the Cit/ASU spread?

I look at it this way...

Last year we played three pretty good quarters of football. One of those quarters, ASU played vanilla but still kept the 1st string in until about 5:00 from the end.

The problem was the wheels falling off in the second quarter when ASU scored 34 points. Some of that was AE and Co, but a good portion of it was also our own stupid mental mistakes. Snapping over the punter comes to mind.

I think that if we can avoid another 2nd quarter disaster, this game is going to be a 5-10 point decision. Our D is much improved. That being said, nobody is going to greatly limit ASU on offense. They are going to score. What I am hoping is that we can make those one or two stops that allows us to score as much as ASU.

We have largely played vanilla on both sides of the ball this season so far. Even against UNC, once the Heels were up by 21, Higgins tucked the playbook away. I think that whatever we have to offer this year, we are going to see it all Saturday. We have several new weapons on offense to take the heat off of Andre.

I think that a realistic spread is ASU by ten. Given that most people would predict as much as a 21 point spread, I'd say that Sagarin is close to my estimate. At least I hope so.

[Henwatcher]

Apparently Sagarin's computer does not know that UD does not win games by field goals.

[UNIFanSince1983]

What is Sagarins predictor for the UNI vs Indiana State game? Just for curiosities sake...

[KAUMASS]

What is Sagarins predictor for the UNI vs Indiana State game? Just for curiosities sake...

UNI by 44 at home, by 38 if UNI is on the road..