Could the SoCon be a 1 bid league this year?

[Waco Kid]

I know it is very early to talk about the playoffs, but after 3 weeks the SoCon looks pretty weak. So I want to pose the question do you think there could be only 1 team out of the SoCon make the playoffs this year? Personally I think there will still be 2, but depending on how the rest of the season goes I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Nobody has proved anything so far, but I feel like if the Apps can put in a good effort this weekend against samford we will be the favorite for the autobid. If that happens Elon, Samford, and Furman look to be the only other teams with a chance at the playoffs. I would put Wofford in there but they are just so banged up/inexperienced I don't see how they can get in this year. Each have one loss to a FBS school and wins over pretty bad teams. Would 2 losses the rest of the way eliminate each of these teams? Obviously App can only lose 1 more game to make the show so we know what has to be done there.

I know it is all hypothetical at this point, but I wanted to see what everyone thought.

[ASUG8]

I don't think anybody goes unscathed this season. App clearly needs an EXTREMELY solid run to get in, Wofford is already a bit banged up, Elon found out the difference between Davidson and FBS ball last week as did Furman. That being said, Samford and GSU can certainly play spoiler roles this season to any team. IMO, 8-3 will be the best we'll see out of a SoCon team this season, and likely a single bid depending on how badly the CAA eats their own this season.

[JMU_71]

Only if that 1 team is ASU. I certainly don't see someone else being that only team.

[PaladinFan]

Could be intersting. At this moment a good chunk of the conference has only lost to an FBS school.

I do think the conference is not looking as strong as I thought it would be coming out of the gate. I didn't really expect Mizzou to put a hurt on Furman, nor Elon to get blown out by Wake, or even GSU to be beaten as badly as they were in Brookings. Every team, I think, has some major questions.

[ElonPride]

Could be intersting. At this moment a good chunk of the conference has only lost to an FBS school.

I do think the conference is not looking as strong as I thought it would be coming out of the gate. I didn't really expect Mizzou to put a hurt on Furman, nor Elon to get blown out by Wake, or even GSU to be beaten as badly as they were in Brookings. Every team, I think, has some major questions.

Many have taken knocks playing up this year, and some have faired very well. People are putting WAY to much emphasis on these games, especically seeing that both Furman and Elon met these FBS teams a few games into the season instead of playing right out of the gate. Looks like most of the pollsters notice this, I'm not sure why it's a little harder for some in the AGS community to understand.

[89Hen]

Yes. Oh wait, you said 'could', not 'should'. Nevermind. xwhistlex :p

[Seven Would Be Nice]

If the SoCon is a 1 bid conference... look for 8 CAA teams... :D

[89Hen]

If the SoCon is a 1 bid conference... look for 8 CAA teams... :D
The way it should be. xthumbsupx

[apaladin]

I think Furman and ASU are in the same boat. Both can only afford one loss assuming Furman is going to lose to Auburn, which is probably a safe assumption.

[WestCoastAggie]

They should and will get 2 bids unless App. St. & Elon just lay eggs a few times in their SoCon Schedule.

BTW: Aren't we weighing these FBS games too much? Just because we had a few teams win in those match-ups doesn't mean that they are equal towards FCS OOC play & conference play. It should be treated as extra credit and the teams in the CAA just have a lot of credit cashed in this season.

[Ronbo]

Hey the way they line up the Big Sky in the playoffs even if we get two bids only one can advance as they have us playing each other in the 2nd round. That's sort of one bid in a round about way.

[PhoenixMan]

I know it is very early to talk about the playoffs, but after 3 weeks the SoCon looks pretty weak. So I want to pose the question do you think there could be only 1 team out of the SoCon make the playoffs this year? Personally I think there will still be 2, but depending on how the rest of the season goes I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Nobody has proved anything so far, but I feel like if the Apps can put in a good effort this weekend against samford we will be the favorite for the autobid. If that happens Elon, Samford, and Furman look to be the only other teams with a chance at the playoffs. I would put Wofford in there but they are just so banged up/inexperienced I don't see how they can get in this year. Each have one loss to a FBS school and wins over pretty bad teams. Would 2 losses the rest of the way eliminate each of these teams? Obviously App can only lose 1 more game to make the show so we know what has to be done there.

I know it is all hypothetical at this point, but I wanted to see what everyone thought.
I think that assuming that App is the favorite for the autobid when they have yet to win a football game, and haven't played a conference game yet is a bit presumptuousxnonox

[PaladinFan]

As much as I hate calling games "must wins," does it not seem like GSU and App State really really need these games badly this week?

I all lump Furman in there too. This is one of those games that the Paladins just have to win against Western Carolina.

[The Moody1]

I think that assuming that App is the favorite for the autobid when they have yet to win a football game, and haven't played a conference game yet is a bit presumptuousxnonox

Elon hasn't won any non-high school games. Isn't the point of the thread to get presumptions? :D

[ASUG8]

As much as I hate calling games "must wins," does it not seem like GSU and App State really really need these games badly this week?

I all lump Furman in there too. This is one of those games that the Paladins just have to win against Western Carolina.

Yes - a GSU win would put Elon on their heels a bit - a Samford win would nearly eliminate an already reeling ASU squad. Both need wins to gain some momentum. I'd rather be in Furman's current spot than either of the other two.

[gophoenix]

Elon hasn't won any non-high school games. Isn't the point of the thread to get presumptions? :D

Maybe so, but Elon also took a scheduling note out of the CAA handbook. Elon has two wins that count for the 7 win season for playoffs.

[terrierbob]

Don't think we can afford but one more loss, even though our losses are to FBSers

[apppackdad]

YEP!

[OL FU]

The only teams (pre-season potential contenders) that have lost games most assumed they would win are GSU and ASU. To be honest, the SDSU game was one that I picked GSU to lose so it may not have been a surprise except for the margin of defeat.

Other than that nothing has changed. Ask me again on Monday and I may give you a different answer.

[WCU LawCat]

As much as I hate calling games "must wins," does it not seem like GSU and App State really really need these games badly this week?

I all lump Furman in there too. This is one of those games that the Paladins just have to win against Western Carolina.

It hink Western could say the same thing. A loss this week to Furman and the guys might feel like the whole season is tanked.

[OL FU]

Don't think we can afford but one more loss, even though our losses are to FBSers

Both Furman and Wofford had to head into the season knowing that 7-4 might get them in the playoffs if everything else fell just right. JSU being out of the playoffs helps. Liberty losing large to JMU this weekend would help. Somebody tripping up FAMU or SC State along the way would help. The CAA not splitting games with each other (or maybe better put, three or four teams being obviously dominate) would help. Of course getting to at least 7-4 is a prerequisite.

It would take a lot of things working right for either of us to get in at 7-4.

[89Hen]

Hey the way they line up the Big Sky in the playoffs even if we get two bids only one can advance as they have us playing each other in the 2nd round. That's sort of one bid in a round about way.
Nice try at an excuse but regionalization started in 2001 as a result of 9/11. Did you know that last year was the first time since regionalization that a Big Sky has met a Big Sky in the playoffs? AND that 5 out of 8 times, Big Sky teams weren't slated to meet until the semis or finals even with the NCAA mandate that they try to keep teams close geographically. xwhistlex

2001: UM and NAU would have met second round
2002: UM and MSU would have met second round
2003: NAU and UM would have met in the semis and MSU was in the other bracket
2004: UM and EWU would have met in the semis
2005: UM and EWU would have met in the semis
2006: UM and MSU would have met in the finals
2007: UM and EWU would have met in the semis
2008: UM and WSU met in the second round

[AppAlum2003]

It hink Western could say the same thing. A loss this week to Furman and the guys might feel like the whole season is tanked.

Losing at home to GW didn't fill-in-the-blanks for them?

Sorry, I had to. :D

[Woof]

Both Furman and Wofford had to head into the season knowing that 7-4 might get them in the playoffs if everything else fell just right. JSU being out of the playoffs helps. Liberty losing large to JMU this weekend would help. Somebody tripping up FAMU or SC State along the way would help. The CAA not splitting games with each other (or maybe better put, three or four teams being obviously dominate) would help. Of course getting to at least 7-4 is a prerequisite.

It would take a lot of things working right for either of us to get in at 7-4.

Agreed.......but don't forget to count your loss to us in there, too.:D

Just curious which 2 conference games you think both teams will lose (obviously doesn't have to be the same 2)..... Appy? Elon ? Sammy ?

[OL FU]

Agreed.......but don't forget to count your loss to us in there, too.:D

Just curious which 2 conference games you think both teams will lose (obviously doesn't have to be the same 2)..... Appy? Elon ? Sammy ?

My point wasn't that both, one or either will end up 7-4. My point was both should have they understanding that 7-4 leaves us on the outside looking in with still a small possibility of going to the playoffs.

PS, my prediction for the top four in the SoCon is and has been

ASU
ELon
Wofford
Furman

So you figure out who I think will be 7-4:(

[PaladinFan]

My point wasn't that both, one or either will end up 7-4. My point was both should have they understanding that 7-4 leaves us on the outside looking in with still a small possibility of going to the playoffs.

PS, my prediction for the top four in the SoCon is and has been

ASU
ELon
Wofford
Furman

So you figure out who I think will be 7-4:(

If both Elon and Furman can escape this weekend with a win it does set up the SoCon's first mammoth game of the season next weekend in Greenville.

[ToTheLeft]

The way it should be. xthumbsupx

"Hello and Welcome to this year's CAA National Championship tournament, with special guests Montana and App St. Look for some exciting matchups in the first round as URI vs. Towson could go either way!"

[seantaylor]

This is the weakest the Socon has ever been. Not one elite team. A bunch of mediocre teams.

[BDKJMU]

Both Furman and Wofford had to head into the season knowing that 7-4 might get them in the playoffs if everything else fell just right. JSU being out of the playoffs helps. Liberty losing large to JMU this weekend would help. Somebody tripping up FAMU or SC State along the way would help. The CAA not splitting games with each other (or maybe better put, three or four teams being obviously dominate) would help. Of course getting to at least 7-4 is a prerequisite.

It would take a lot of things working right for either of us to get in at 7-4.

They playoff ineligible? I figure either they or EKU will win the OVC...

[Cocky]

They playoff ineligible? I figure either they or EKU will win the OVC...

Yes, no playoffs for us.

[WMTribe90]

"Hello and Welcome to this year's CAA National Championship tournament, with special guests Montana and App St. Look for some exciting matchups in the first round as URI vs. Towson could go either way!"

I prefer you call it the NCAA Invitational. Keep this up and we're not going to invite you to participate.xsmiley_wix

[CID1990]

ASU loses an OOC game to another traditional FCS power and suddenly the SoCon is weak?

With the exception of GSU losing a couple weeks ago and WCU dropping to GW, I don't see any anomalies.

I guess we have come a long way now that we place so much weight on losses to good FCS teams. It's not like we're all playing Army or MAC teams.

[EmeryZach]

If we want to really have the best teams in the Playoffs then the SOCON should only have one team in this year and the CAA should have 6.

But I don't think anyone will let that happen.

[AppMan]

ASU loses an OOC game to another traditional FCS power and suddenly the SoCon is weak?

With the exception of GSU losing a couple weeks ago and WCU dropping to GW, I don't see any anomalies.

I guess we have come a long way now that we place so much weight on losses to good FCS teams. It's not like we're all playing Army or MAC teams.

I agree. This thread is a prime example of why strength of schedule needs to be a major factor in any playoff discussion. With all things being equal (conference play), how can a team who beats up on non scholarship or weak teams be more deserving of a bid than one who actually plays a competitive schedule? I am not exactly overjoyed with ASU playing NC Central, but at least the McNeese game balanced it out to some degree. It is a shame schools schedule 8 wins to become playoff eligible. IMO, that’s not doing the division any good.

[PaladinFan]

ASU loses an OOC game to another traditional FCS power and suddenly the SoCon is weak?

With the exception of GSU losing a couple weeks ago and WCU dropping to GW, I don't see any anomalies.

I guess we have come a long way now that we place so much weight on losses to good FCS teams. It's not like we're all playing Army or MAC teams.

Agree too.

I'll be the first to admit that Furman looked terrible against Missouri. But, that's to be expected isn't it? I don't think getting beat at a major FBS power is sign of a weak conference. In fact, I don't think it tells you much of anything. I don't put a lot of stock in games against FBS schools.

Granted there have been two conference losses to two FCS schools with SDSU and McNeese. Both are top 15 FCS teams at the moment.

The SoCon has enough national championships to warrant two bids if an argument can be made. I think at least two teams in the league will have 8 wins when the dust settles, and that puts you right in the conversation.

[ASUG8]

If we want to really have the best teams in the Playoffs then the SOCON should only have one team in this year and the CAA should have 6.

But I don't think anyone will let that happen.


Let's get a few more games under our collective belts before you go out on that limb just yet - loads of football to play.

[89Hen]

ASU loses an OOC game to another traditional FCS power...
Who hasn't won a playoff game in 6 years. xwhistlex

[89Hen]

A bunch of mediocre teams.
I wouldn't say that. App, Elon, Wofford, Furman... we haven't seen how good or bad they are yet. Long way to go.

[ElonPride]

I wouldn't say that. App, Elon, Wofford, Furman... we haven't seen how good or bad they are yet. Long way to go.

Agreed! I've been yelling all week that people are putting WAY to much emphasis on the FBS games from this past Saturday. That just isn't a barometer of how well you'll play the rest of the way in FCS.

[89Hen]

Agreed! I've been yelling all week that people are putting WAY to much emphasis on the FBS games from this past Saturday. That just isn't a barometer of how well you'll play the rest of the way in FCS.
And more than one 8-3 team has won the National Championship. :)

[OL FU]

I wouldn't say that. App, Elon, Wofford, Furman... we haven't seen how good or bad they are yet. Long way to go.

You read a Sean Taylor postxsmhx







xlolx

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I know it is very early to talk about the playoffs, but after 3 weeks the SoCon looks pretty weak.

Depends on what you mean by "weak". IMO the only difference between the SoCon this year versus 2007 and 2008 is that we don't have the top-10 teams as we have had in ASU and Wofford. ASU and Wofford are top-25s, just not top-10s. Furman is probably better than they were last year. Samford is better than they were last year. The Citadel is probably better than they were last year. Chatty is better than they were last year. GSU and Elon are the same at worst.

As for whether or not the SoCon will be a one-bid league, it's possible. That's what happens when you don't have a split league and you blow the only two (maybe 3) winnable FBS games you get and schedule 9 others that aren't winnable. As usual, there will be 3 and maybe 4 SoCon teams left out of the playoffs who are just as good as the worst CAA teams to get in.

[CID1990]

I just think it is way too early to tell about any of the SoCon teams or the teams in any other conference, for that matter. Right now, at El Cid we are biding our time, waiting for things to develop because we are pretty certain that this year we have the team that we thought we were going to have last year, which was supposed to improve on a 7-4 record. Samford is going to make noise, as well. Add those to ASU and Elon who are expected to be powerful and then whomever gets in will be strong. The SoCon this year might well have MORE teams in the conversation than is usual.

I think that at the end of this season we are going to certainly see two SoCon teams in the playoffs, and possibly three. There is never any reason to expect more than that. Even in down years, the SoCon gets two teams in. I have seen nothing so far this season to indicate that this will not be the case again.

I also think that the SoCon is going to be black and blue again. Most everybody is going to lose to someone they are supposed to beat. At the end of the season this will mean that once again the two teams that make it into the playoffs will likely win their first games.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Also, for those of you who think this is the weakest SoCon ever, what about 2003? An excellent Wofford team, but beyond that you have mediocre GSU and ASU teams and pretty much everyone else sucked. If I want a cheap ticket to the playoffs, I would still take that SoCon over this year's hands down. and you'd be an idiot to not do that.

[89Hen]

Also, for those of you who think this is the weakest SoCon ever, what about 2003? An excellent Wofford team, but beyond that you have mediocre GSU and ASU teams and pretty much everyone else sucked.
That was a bad year for the SoCon. I think that's when I came up with the SoGone logo for the Smack Board (can't find it now).

[PhoenixMan]

GSU and Elon are the same at worst.


I don't think Elon will be the same. Returning 18 of 22 starters, all seniors on the O line, Hudgins a senior (soon to pass Jerry Rice and Randy Moss in most every FCS receiving category)xbowx and QB Riddle, who is pretty darn good also. Special teams is the question.....we lost a great kicker and punter. The jury is still out on the new specialists.

[OL FU]

That was a bad year for the SoCon. I think that's when I came up with the SoGone logo for the Smack Board (can't find it now).

And that was a strange mediocre year for Furman. Lost five games by a total of around 20 points including a loss to Clemson.

as said before the only real surprise is ASU losing to McNeese which may end up not being a big surprise and GSU losing by a ton to SDSU. Other than that everything so far is as expected.

[GannonFan]

As usual, there will be 3 and maybe 4 SoCon teams left out of the playoffs who are just as good as the worst CAA teams to get in.

Really, usually 3 or 4 deserving teams from the SoCon are left out every year? The SoCon's only a 9 team conference, so are you truly advocating that the SoCon should be getting 5-6 teams in every year? And people criticize the CAA posters. xlolx

[PaladinFan]

Also, for those of you who think this is the weakest SoCon ever, what about 2003? An excellent Wofford team, but beyond that you have mediocre GSU and ASU teams and pretty much everyone else sucked. If I want a cheap ticket to the playoffs, I would still take that SoCon over this year's hands down. and you'd be an idiot to not do that.

Furmans 2003 defense and App's 2005 unit might go down as the last great defenses of Southern Conference football.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Really, usually 3 or 4 deserving teams from the SoCon are left out every year? The SoCon's only a 9 team conference, so are you truly advocating that the SoCon should be getting 5-6 teams in every year? And people criticize the CAA posters. xlolx

Not saying that at all. What I am saying is for the past two seasons there have been several SoCon teams left out that are just as good as the bottom of the CAA's 5. Last year I honestly don't think GSU, Samford, Furman, and Elon are any worse than Maine and UNH. In 2007 I think the SoCon has three teams left out that are no worse than the worst of the CAA's five. Yes, I know that of the seven teams in this group, only one had 7 or more DI wins, but in a matchup I'd take these teams over the lesser CAA playoff teams from the respective seasons any day.

The CAA is better than the SoCon top-to-bottom but it isn't (at least in the past two seasons) nearly as much so as CAA folks believe. Having a split league is more of an advantage than some folks want to admit. If you don't think so, just imagine the 5 CAA playoff teams from last year as well as W&M and the three worst CAA teams playing in a single-division conference last season. If you use the results from the games that were played out last year, there aren't too many likely scenarios that will get 5 teams in.

Also, we will have to wait on this one but I think when the FBS season is over it will become apparant that the SoCon's FBS schedule was much tougher than the CAA's. The CAA deserves credit for getting the job done when they have a winnable game but they have also had more winnable games than any other FCS league.

[89Hen]

As usual, there will be 3 and maybe 4 SoCon teams left out of the playoffs who are just as good as the worst CAA teams to get in.
Missed that quote.

Maine was the last CAA team to get in last year. AppSt and Wofford made it in.

That would mean you're saying Elon, Furman, GSU and maybe Samford were just as good. GSU squeaked by Northeastern, Furman squeaked by Delaware. I saw Maine and they were better than Furman. GSU's marquee win was Furman. Samford was 4-5 vs DI last year. Tough case to make IMO.

[EmeryZach]

Let's get a few more games under our collective belts before you go out on that limb just yet - loads of football to play.

Agree. You are right, we probably shouldn't even be discussing playoffs yet.

[GannonFan]

Not saying that at all. What I am saying is for the past two seasons there have been several SoCon teams left out that are just as good as the bottom of the CAA's 5. Last year I honestly don't think GSU, Samford, Furman, and Elon are any worse than Maine and UNH. In 2007 I think the SoCon has three teams left out that are no worse than the worst of the CAA's five. Yes, I know that of the seven teams in this group, only one had 7 or more DI wins, but in a matchup I'd take these teams over the lesser CAA playoff teams from the respective seasons any day.

The CAA is better than the SoCon top-to-bottom but it isn't (at least in the past two seasons) nearly as much so as CAA folks believe. Having a split league is more of an advantage than some folks want to admit. If you don't think so, just imagine the 5 CAA playoff teams from last year as well as W&M and the three worst CAA teams playing in a single-division conference last season. If you use the results from the games that were played out last year, there aren't too many likely scenarios that will get 5 teams in.

Also, we will have to wait on this one but I think when the FBS season is over it will become apparant that the SoCon's FBS schedule was much tougher than the CAA's. The CAA deserves credit for getting the job done when they have a winnable game but they have also had more winnable games than any other FCS league.

Well, of course Maine is a team I'm sure plenty of people could argue shouldn't have gotten in last year, but UNH? All UNH keeps doing is win playoff games (victories in 4 of the last 5 playoffs, including 3 road victories (including in Carbondale and Statesboro) and have made the playoffs 5 years running) and still people don't give them repsect. But I think you also overestimate the split conference thing and just ignore that it is a bigger conference. All things being equal, a 12 team conference should get more teams in than a 9 team conference. It's just a matter of numbers. If the CAA split today, the remnants would still get the same number of teams in and it will be even more so once ODU and GA St. join. To try to penalize a conference because it's too big makes no sense as it could split, be two smaller conferences, and still get the same aggregate number of teams into the playoffs. And besides, it's not as if the CAA is not doing their job proving themselves once they've been given playoff spots. Much was made when the Gateway got 4 teams into the playoffs in '03 and none of the 4 made it past the quarters. If the CAA was so undeserving you'd think eventually it would come out in the playoffs. To date, it's not.

As for the FBS games, hey, you schedule who you schedule. No one held a gun to Furman's head to schedule two FBS games, and to schedule Missouri and Auburn of all teams. If you schedule the games for the money, be happy with the money. But don't moan when teams schedule games that are potentially winnable and they get a little less money. Unless you're Appy St in '07 against Michigan, you seldom get to have both the big time money and the W. Gotta pick what you want.

[KiddBrewer]

i bet if app was 1-1....this thread wouldnt exist:)

[Waco Kid]

I think that assuming that App is the favorite for the autobid when they have yet to win a football game, and haven't played a conference game yet is a bit presumptuousxnonox

What has anyone else in the league done to prove they deserve to be the favorite? Who do you think the autobid fav is? As Moody pointed out this is all about what we presume will happen.

[Waco Kid]

i bet if app was 1-1....this thread wouldnt exist:)

Sure it would. It has nothing to do with losing to ECU or McNeese. I still think we can be a very good team and possibly sweep the SoCon, AGAIN. Having said that we can only afford to lose one maybe two more games to make the playoffs. My concern is what will the other teams in the conference do? Elon has a good shot to make it thanks to two gimmie wins to start the season. All they have to do is go 6-2 the rest of the way to get in. They'll beat UTC, WCU, and El Cid most likely. With Wofford's team losing guys weekly Elon will most likely beat them as well. The question is can they take 2 of 3 from ASU, FU, and GSU. Thats something they've never done before so we'll see. Furman is still in solid shape with 1 SoCon win. GSU is hanging on by a thread right now thanks to losing at SDSU, and looking pretty bad against a not very good Albany team. They will most likely lose to UNC so that means they can only lose 2 games to have any shot but more realistically they can only lose 1. Going 1-2 vs Elon, FU, and ASU is very possible. Wofford might not have anyone left to play by the end of the year so I doubt they will go 6-2 the rest of the way. Samford has two wins that were both closer than they should have been. If they are a player they must perform well this week. UTC, WCU, and El Cid aren't going to the playoffs.

[Waco Kid]

Depends on what you mean by "weak". IMO the only difference between the SoCon this year versus 2007 and 2008 is that we don't have the top-10 teams as we have had in ASU and Wofford. ASU and Wofford are top-25s, just not top-10s. Furman is probably better than they were last year. Samford is better than they were last year. The Citadel is probably better than they were last year. Chatty is better than they were last year. GSU and Elon are the same at worst.

As for whether or not the SoCon will be a one-bid league, it's possible. That's what happens when you don't have a split league and you blow the only two (maybe 3) winnable FBS games you get and schedule 9 others that aren't winnable. As usual, there will be 3 and maybe 4 SoCon teams left out of the playoffs who are just as good as the worst CAA teams to get in.

Some of the mid pack and bottom teams are slightly better, but past top teams are down as well. I just see a lot of teams beating up on each other like in 2007. Only problem is nobody really has a "big" win to help their cause.

[ElonPride]

The question is can they take 2 of 3 from ASU, FU, and GSU. Thats something they've never done before so we'll see. .

Actually, Elon did that last season!!!! Wins over Furman (31-10) and GSU (22-20)!

[GoDukes86]

Prolly.

[PhoenixMan]

Actually, Elon did that last season!!!! Wins over Furman (31-10) and GSU (22-20)!
Thank you ElonPride....for clearing up yet another App. st. fan's false facts.

[ASUG8]

Thank you ElonPride....for clearing up yet another App. st. fan's false facts.

Maybe another "Impeach Lembo" thread would be in order to boost credibility - oh that's right, an Elon fan started that one - hmmmmmm. xlolx

[19Duke97]

Really, usually 3 or 4 deserving teams from the SoCon are left out every year? The SoCon's only a 9 team conference, so are you truly advocating that the SoCon should be getting 5-6 teams in every year? And people criticize the CAA posters. xlolx

Darn you beat me to it :)

[19Duke97]

Well, of course Maine is a team I'm sure plenty of people could argue shouldn't have gotten in last year, but UNH? All UNH keeps doing is win playoff games (victories in 4 of the last 5 playoffs, including 3 road victories (including in Carbondale and Statesboro) and have made the playoffs 5 years running) and still people don't give them repsect. But I think you also overestimate the split conference thing and just ignore that it is a bigger conference. All things being equal, a 12 team conference should get more teams in than a 9 team conference. It's just a matter of numbers. If the CAA split today, the remnants would still get the same number of teams in and it will be even more so once ODU and GA St. join. To try to penalize a conference because it's too big makes no sense as it could split, be two smaller conferences, and still get the same aggregate number of teams into the playoffs. And besides, it's not as if the CAA is not doing their job proving themselves once they've been given playoff spots. Much was made when the Gateway got 4 teams into the playoffs in '03 and none of the 4 made it past the quarters. If the CAA was so undeserving you'd think eventually it would come out in the playoffs. To date, it's not.

As for the FBS games, hey, you schedule who you schedule. No one held a gun to Furman's head to schedule two FBS games, and to schedule Missouri and Auburn of all teams. If you schedule the games for the money, be happy with the money. But don't moan when teams schedule games that are potentially winnable and they get a little less money. Unless you're Appy St in '07 against Michigan, you seldom get to have both the big time money and the W. Gotta pick what you want.

Good points. One could actually argue that if W&M were in the North, they woulod have had a little better record, and then we would be having this argument over potentially 6 teams, though I think W&M was better than Maine, and should have been in the playoffs last year.
back to the point of the thread, I think the SoCon will have two teams in at the end of the year. JMU was beaten by Duke last year of all teams, and still had a pretty good season xthumbsupxn. Too early to tell, I think teams will round out and sharpen up. GSU may be th most interesting case as they are so young, but could gel into an excellent team. Elon will most likely be in the argument. Only time will tell. And I assume once AE get's into football shape ASU will be fine, but they need to shore up their D.

[BDKJMU]

Depends on what you mean by "weak". IMO the only difference between the SoCon this year versus 2007 and 2008 is that we don't have the top-10 teams as we have had in ASU and Wofford. ASU and Wofford are top-25s, just not top-10s. Furman is probably better than they were last year. Samford is better than they were last year. The Citadel is probably better than they were last year. Chatty is better than they were last year. GSU and Elon are the same at worst.

As for whether or not the SoCon will be a one-bid league, it's possible. That's what happens when you don't have a split league and you blow the only two (maybe 3) winnable FBS games you get and schedule 9 others that aren't winnable. As usual, there will be 3 and maybe 4 SoCon teams left out of the playoffs who are just as good as the worst CAA teams to get in.

That's saying your your 5th-6th place So-Con team will be better than your 4th-5th place CAA. xlolx

Delusional.

[PantherRob82]

Many have taken knocks playing up this year, and some have faired very well. People are putting WAY to much emphasis on these games, especically seeing that both Furman and Elon met these FBS teams a few games into the season instead of playing right out of the gate. Looks like most of the pollsters notice this, I'm not sure why it's a little harder for some in the AGS community to understand.

Well let's look at the 3 game resume. 2 wins over crap FCS teams foloowed by huge beatdowns by FBS teams. Other teams have built stronger resumes to this point, should we continue ranking Elon and Furman on what MIGHT happen?

[ElonPride]

Well let's look at the 3 game resume. 2 wins over crap FCS teams foloowed by huge beatdowns by FBS teams. Other teams have built stronger resumes to this point, should we continue ranking Elon and Furman on what MIGHT happen?

...didn't you guys just play St. Francis, a team that went 0-11 last season??? \

[PantherRob82]

...didn't you guys just play St. Francis, a team that went 0-11 last season??? \

Right....and we didn't get demolished in our FBS game. We also held our cupcakes to a total of 7 points.

[BDKJMU]

Yes, no playoffs for us.

Wow, I didn't know. So:

-OVC: one of the top 2 teams, JSU, is playoff ineligible, so likely no at large for the OVC

-Southland: one of top 2-3 teams (UCA) is playoff ineligible, so likely no at large (I think McNeese will get the AQ and Tx State if they finish 8-3, 7 Div I win won't get an at large).

-Big Sky: probably the 3rd best team, EWU, is playoff ineligible, and probably 2nd best team, Weber, has 2 I-A losses, but I don't see them losing more than 1 Big Sky, so Big Sky will likely get 1 at large

Patriot won't get an at large and MEAC likely won't.

-MVFC: think will get 2 at large.

-So-Con: think will get 1 at large.

-CAA: gets 3-4 at large. If 4 that would account for all 8. If 3 then there would be another from somewhere else.

I definitely see the So-Con getting an at large, with a SLIM possibility of 2 at large. So-Con being a 1 bid league ain't happening.

[ElonPride]

Right....and we didn't get demolished in our FBS game. We also held our cupcakes to a total of 7 points.

K, so you play an FBS team out of the gates and nearly won (which I was pulling for you guys hard) and held your cupcakes to 7 points.

Elon loses to an FBS in week 3 (big difference between week 1 & 3), and holds their cupcakes to a total of 7 points......

It really should be hard for folks to discount this Elon team this early! A QB with with 7,500 passing yards in 25 games, a receiver with over 4,000 yards in his career with 8 games to go (and about to break Jerry Rice's records) and what looks to be an improved D......

[Saint3333]

Furmans 2003 defense and App's 2005 unit might go down as the last great defenses of Southern Conference football.

ASU's 2006 defense was better than 2005's.

SoCon gets two in.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Missed that quote.

Maine was the last CAA team to get in last year. AppSt and Wofford made it in.

That would mean you're saying Elon, Furman, GSU and maybe Samford were just as good. GSU squeaked by Northeastern, Furman squeaked by Delaware. I saw Maine and they were better than Furman. GSU's marquee win was Furman. Samford was 4-5 vs DI last year. Tough case to make IMO.

Villanova also squeaked by Northeastern. And when you are comparing scores, Wofford and App. squeaked by GSU and I think most would agree that Wofford and App. were both just as good as the best teams in the CAA last year (let's face it, Richmond won the game fair and square but it would have been an entirely different game if ASU wasn't playing their third-string RB and if Edwards wasn't hobbling around on his hurt hip.)


Well, of course Maine is a team I'm sure plenty of people could argue shouldn't have gotten in last year, but UNH? All UNH keeps doing is win playoff games (victories in 4 of the last 5 playoffs, including 3 road victories (including in Carbondale and Statesboro) and have made the playoffs 5 years running) and still people don't give them repsect. But I think you also overestimate the split conference thing and just ignore that it is a bigger conference. All things being equal, a 12 team conference should get more teams in than a 9 team conference. It's just a matter of numbers. If the CAA split today, the remnants would still get the same number of teams in and it will be even more so once ODU and GA St. join. To try to penalize a conference because it's too big makes no sense as it could split, be two smaller conferences, and still get the same aggregate number of teams into the playoffs. And besides, it's not as if the CAA is not doing their job proving themselves once they've been given playoff spots. Much was made when the Gateway got 4 teams into the playoffs in '03 and none of the 4 made it past the quarters. If the CAA was so undeserving you'd think eventually it would come out in the playoffs. To date, it's not.

As for the FBS games, hey, you schedule who you schedule. No one held a gun to Furman's head to schedule two FBS games, and to schedule Missouri and Auburn of all teams. If you schedule the games for the money, be happy with the money. But don't moan when teams schedule games that are potentially winnable and they get a little less money. Unless you're Appy St in '07 against Michigan, you seldom get to have both the big time money and the W. Gotta pick what you want.

You're right about UNH. Year-to-year they have clearly been a better program than Maine, but I'm talking specifically about last year. Maine was the only CAA playoff team they beat and they also lost to Nova and W&M.

And as for the FBS games, I don't know if it's just better scheduling by the CAA or if it's just more opportunities for winnable games, but that's beside the point.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

One other thing to take into consideration - if you list the SoCon-CAA playoff matchups from the last 10 seasons, you'll find that the record is even but the SoCon has many more double-digit wins than the CAA. IMO, this is because the CAA is more likely to get teams in that are good but aren't quite at the level of national champs. xthumbsupx

[OL FU]

Well let's look at the 3 game resume. 2 wins over crap FCS teams foloowed by huge beatdowns by FBS teams. Other teams have built stronger resumes to this point, should we continue ranking Elon and Furman on what MIGHT happen?

What else are you going to rank them on. Some schedules are front in loaded some aren't. Ps, losing to an FBS school is still losing:p

You guys played a heck of a game. I don't think Furman should be ranked. If you thought Elon should be ranked pre-season or after week one or after two, nothing that happen in week three that should change that unless you think previously unranked teams showed you enough to move up. I understand the thought process you are providing in week three if a team doesn't have someone on their schedule that will provide some competition. Elon will have plenty over the next few weeks to judge them by.

[KAUMASS]

The SoCon will have 2-3, one auto-bid and one -two at large. Not sure who they will be as the SoCon seems wide open at this point. We should get a gauge reading with this weekends games. SoCon is too good of a conference just to have 1 autobid.

[89Hen]

the SoCon has many more double-digit wins than the CAA.
Without looking I'm going to go out on a limb and say a majority of those were by AppSt.

[89Hen]

(let's face it, Richmond won the game fair and square but it would have been an entirely different game if ASU wasn't playing their third-string RB and if Edwards wasn't hobbling around on his hurt hip.)
Oh boy, here we go. You're still bitter about 1998, aren't you? :p

[theasushow]

This is the weakest the Socon has ever been. Not one elite team. A bunch of mediocre teams.

problem is...they are all equally mediocre lol.

[gophoenix]

problem is...they are all equally mediocre lol.

So essentially, I see a trend and the line of logic.

If App and GSU stumble, that means the conference sucks. If App and GSU are good, then the conference is good. Essentially, no team can possibly be good if App and GSU aren't playing up to historical expectations....

[theasushow]

So essentially, I see a trend and the line of logic.

If App and GSU stumble, that means the conference sucks. If App and GSU are good, then the conference is good. Essentially, no team can possibly be good if App and GSU aren't playing up to historical expectations....


Well, I'm saying that yes GSU and ASU have stumbled early, but so has the majority of the socon (especially the contenders), the fact that all of the teams have had early issues magnifies the fact that the league is mediocre. I think its possible for the SOCON to be a good conference without App and GSU winning games, but so far this year, no other teams have really had that big win to overshadow the short falls of teams like App.

xtwocentsx

[gophoenix]

Well, I'm saying that yes GSU and ASU have stumbled early, but so has the majority of the socon (especially the contenders), the fact that all of the teams have had early issues magnifies the fact that the league is mediocre. I think its possible for the SOCON to be a good conference without App and GSU winning games, but so far this year, no other teams have really had that big win to overshadow the short falls of teams like App.

xtwocentsx

You know, I am looking at the schedules, and I am having trouble seeing who stumbled early that magnifies the fact that the conference is mediocre.

Everyone thought App would beat McNeese, they didn't.
Everyone thought GSU would beat SD State, they didn't.
UTC has won two, where many thought they would struggle.
Western has disappointed a bit so far.

No many thought that Elon, Wofford, Samford, Furman, The Citadel or App were really going to win their I-A games. None of those games were even against remotely weark oppoinents like UL Monroe, UAB, Duke, Kent St, Ball St, and the other weaklings of FBS land.

So I am curious how the contenders, outside of GSU and App overall, have failed to live up to expectations when Wofford, Elon, Samford, Furman and The Citadel have won the games they were supposed to and lost the games they were expected to.

So, you are talking 3 weeks into the season, there hasn't even been a shot at a "big game" which goes back to the ... if App and GSU aren't winning, then the conference must suck....

[paward]

SoCon get two in for sure. The picture is not clear as to who is the front runner. CAA IMHO will not get five in. Not because we do not deserve it but we will beat each other out of that this year. I would love to see more CAA vs SoCon each year during the reguar season play. Sentimentally and historically I would love to see GSU come out the gate. I will never rule out ASU until 8:30 selection night. I would have to give Elon a hand up at this point. But like others said a lot of football to be played.

[theasushow]

You know, I am looking at the schedules, and I am having trouble seeing who stumbled early that magnifies the fact that the conference is mediocre.

Everyone thought App would beat McNeese, they didn't.
Everyone thought GSU would beat SD State, they didn't.
UTC has won two, where many thought they would struggle.
Western has disappointed a bit so far.

No many thought that Elon, Wofford, Samford, Furman, The Citadel or App were really going to win their I-A games. None of those games were even against remotely weark oppoinents like UL Monroe, UAB, Duke, Kent St, Ball St, and the other weaklings of FBS land.

So I am curious how the contenders, outside of GSU and App overall, have failed to live up to expectations when Wofford, Elon, Samford, Furman and The Citadel have won the games they were supposed to and lost the games they were expected to.

So, you are talking 3 weeks into the season, there hasn't even been a shot at a "big game" which goes back to the ... if App and GSU aren't winning, then the conference must suck....

I see your point, and it makes sense, trust me I am all about the socon doing well. I just feel like there is a sense of mediocrity this year and maybe it is unwarranted. Perhaps the CAA defeating 2 FBS teams (albeit weak ones) and JMU nearly making it three kinda made the SOCON look inferior as unfortunately the SOCON has not fared well against FBS teams this year. I realize we are talking Duke and UVA here, but I would take a win over ANY FBS team!

[WestCoastAggie]

FBS games are OVERRATED!

[phoenix3]

I think the SoCon gets 3 in this year. My first guess is App, Sammy and Elon. Go ahead, call me crazy one more time!

[theasushow]

FBS games are OVERRATED!

i would tend to agree, but if you can get a big win, you may get a little national attention...which is always good for the program.

(i will spare everybody the classic example)

[unigriff]

You mean the UNI beating Iowa State example, or NDSU over Minnesota or UNH over all those teams over yonder the last however many years?:)

[unigriff]

I think they are only overrated now because people finally recognize the talent level isnt that far different so you see "upsets" all the time now.

[CrackerRiley]

I hate this kind of talk so early in the season. Obviously, there is nothing else to talk about....

How many games have even been played between SoCon teams so far this year.... 2. Week 4 hasn't been played yet. Let's worry about the playoffs in... I don't know... week 8. at least. sheesh.

[theasushow]

You mean the UNI beating Iowa State example, or NDSU over Minnesota or UNH over all those teams over yonder the last however many years?:)

lol yeah..those.

[PantherRob82]

What else are you going to rank them on. Some schedules are front in loaded some aren't. Ps, losing to an FBS school is still losing:p

You guys played a heck of a game. I don't think Furman should be ranked. If you thought Elon should be ranked pre-season or after week one or after two, nothing that happen in week three that should change that unless you think previously unranked teams showed you enough to move up. I understand the thought process you are providing in week three if a team doesn't have someone on their schedule that will provide some competition. Elon will have plenty over the next few weeks to judge them by.

I get where you are coming from, and the next few weeks will clear things up.

I had Elon Top 10. The first two games didn't tell me anything. Then it seemed like they forgot to show up against Wake Forest. Maybe that is harsh, but I need to see what happens in the next few weeks. If they keep winning, they're right back there.

[CID1990]

The SoCon will have 2-3, one auto-bid and one -two at large. Not sure who they will be as the SoCon seems wide open at this point. We should get a gauge reading with this weekends games. SoCon is too good of a conference just to have 1 autobid.

You are very prescient to predict that the SoCon will have one autobid.

[BDKJMU]

I see your point, and it makes sense, trust me I am all about the socon doing well. I just feel like there is a sense of mediocrity this year and maybe it is unwarranted. Perhaps the CAA defeating 2 FBS teams (albeit weak ones) and JMU nearly making it three kinda made the SOCON look inferior as unfortunately the SOCON has not fared well against FBS teams this year. I realize we are talking Duke and UVA here, but I would take a win over ANY FBS team!

CAA beat 4 I-A, not 2...

[BDKJMU]

SoCon get two in for sure. The picture is not clear as to who is the front runner. CAA IMHO will not get five in. Not because we do not deserve it but we will beat each other out of that this year. I would love to see more CAA vs SoCon each year during the reguar season play. Sentimentally and historically I would love to see GSU come out the gate. I will never rule out ASU until 8:30 selection night. I would have to give Elon a hand up at this point. But like others said a lot of football to be played.

If they got to a 4th loss you can rule them out. But they will either finish 9-2 or 8-3, so they'll be one of the 2 So-Con teams.

[T-Dog]

If they got to a 4th loss you can rule them out. But they will either finish 9-2 or 8-3, so they'll be one of the 2 So-Con teams.

I'm guessing NC-Central wouldn't qualify towards the the 7 D-I win minimum?

Anyway, I'm thinking 2, unless there are clearly three teams that stand out from the rest. Maybe if they all go 7-1 with a win and a loss against the other (ala 1999 with App, GaSo and FU each winning at home and losing on the road).

As far as SOS goes, App has the hardest road for the SoCon favorites with games @ Elon, Wofford, Furman and El Citadel and have, on-paper, the hardest SoCon home game this Saturday vs Samford.

[gophoenix]

I see your point, and it makes sense, trust me I am all about the socon doing well. I just feel like there is a sense of mediocrity this year and maybe it is unwarranted. Perhaps the CAA defeating 2 FBS teams (albeit weak ones) and JMU nearly making it three kinda made the SOCON look inferior as unfortunately the SOCON has not fared well against FBS teams this year. I realize we are talking Duke and UVA here, but I would take a win over ANY FBS team!

In essence, 7 of 9 SoCon teams play FBS, while 8 of 12 in the CAA first of all. Both have played the same amount of sub-DI games.

11 L North Carolina (wk 1)
79 L East Carolina (wk 1)
53 L Central Florida (wk 1)
41 L South Florida (wk 1)
38 L Wake Forest (wk 3)
16 L Wisconsin (wk 3)
26 L Missouri (wk 3)

74 L Kansas State (wk 1)
65 L Boston College (wk 1)
112 L Northwestern (wk 1)
108 W Virginia (wk 1)
88 W Duke (wk 1)
125 W Temple (wk 1)
98 L Maryland (wk 2)
171 W Ball State (wk 2)

Ranking as an average ranking across 5 DI computer ratings.

See any trends? Only one game between the two won outside of week 1. Average ranking of the CAA FBS opponents is 105. Average ranking for SoCon opponents is 38.

Quite a difference in level of competition.

[OL FU]

I get where you are coming from, and the next few weeks will clear things up.

I had Elon Top 10. The first two games didn't tell me anything. Then it seemed like they forgot to show up against Wake Forest. Maybe that is harsh, but I need to see what happens in the next few weeks. If they keep winning, they're right back there.

I don't think it is harsh by any means. But the the only way the first two games would show you anything is if Elon had been beaten.

McNeese almost loses to Henderson ST( I think, sorry I didn't look) and look what they did to ASU. Maine almost loses to a lower division and has so far proved to be less than wonderful with a loss to Albany. UNH barely beats arguably the worst FCS team over the last few years and then beats a BAll State team that would probably be beaten by at least 30 to 35% of FCS teams and yet know one is talking about how far they have slipped ( I don't think they have).

Teams that win the games they should win and lose the ones they should be lose should rarely be looked at differently than original surmised unless there are other over riding reasons to do so. Especially when they are playing FBS or lower divisions or teams that have played like they belong in lower divisions.

Of Course I am not talking about looking at a team as number 15 instead of number 10 because at this point in the season it is still a big who knows.

One other thing that many have mentioned, there is a huge difference in playing Ball St and Duke than playing Missouri or even an apparently good Wake Forest. I am not saying one is better than the other. I would prefer Furman to play winnable FBS games than simply money games.

[ElonPride]

I get where you are coming from, and the next few weeks will clear things up.

I had Elon Top 10. The first two games didn't tell me anything. Then it seemed like they forgot to show up against Wake Forest. Maybe that is harsh, but I need to see what happens in the next few weeks. If they keep winning, they're right back there.

Yes, it did seem like they forgot to show up. Dropped balls in the endzone and a missed FG. Jitters? Overrated? The one bright spot from the game with Wake is that Elon won the turnover battle.....Despite running more offensive plays than Wake.

I just don't see why people put so much stock into drawing conclusions when teams play FBS games.

[Waco Kid]

Actually, Elon did that last season!!!! Wins over Furman (31-10) and GSU (22-20)!

My bad. Forgot you beat Furman.

[OL FU]

My bad. Forgot you beat Furman.

I haven't:(

[GannonFan]

See any trends? Only one game between the two won outside of week 1. Average ranking of the CAA FBS opponents is 105. Average ranking for SoCon opponents is 38.

Quite a difference in level of competition.

Then don't play those games. No one is holding a gun to the heads of those schools to play those games, so if you want the big money and little chance to win rather than a little less money and a better chance to win, then be happy with your choice. It does and will affect selection come playoff time as ultimately, you can only be judged by the games you played and often the games you won. So the CAA will get a few more teams in the playoffs because they scheduled to do that and the SoCon will get a little more money in their coffers because they scheduled to do that. It is what it is.

[OL FU]

Then don't play those games. No one is holding a gun to the heads of those schools to play those games, so if you want the big money and little chance to win rather than a little less money and a better chance to win, then be happy with your choice. It does and will affect selection come playoff time as ultimately, you can only be judged by the games you played and often the games you won. So the CAA will get a few more teams in the playoffs because they scheduled to do that and the SoCon will get a little more money in their coffers because they scheduled to do that. It is what it is.

It has been a long thread which like most tend to move all over the place. With respect to the thread topic, you are correct. Playing "impossible" to win FBS hurts playoff chances unless a team only has one or two losses otherwise. On the other hand, measuring strength of teams requires one to look at the strength of the teams played.

As I said, I tend to disregard most FBS games unless the FCS teams win and from that standpoint, the CAA is looking pretty darn good. But the SoCon losses to FBS teams so far has really been a non-factor.

[gophoenix]

Then don't play those games. No one is holding a gun to the heads of those schools to play those games, so if you want the big money and little chance to win rather than a little less money and a better chance to win, then be happy with your choice. It does and will affect selection come playoff time as ultimately, you can only be judged by the games you played and often the games you won. So the CAA will get a few more teams in the playoffs because they scheduled to do that and the SoCon will get a little more money in their coffers because they scheduled to do that. It is what it is.

I am not unhappy with my choice. The ASU fan is judging the conference based on those games. This should show that in reality, none of the SoCon team should have a change in any of those games, outside of the ECU and UCF perhaps. And in reality, those games not only are against stiffer competition but are farther along in the season, so it is harder to fault the teams for losing. It's hard to judge the conference on those games. So, trying to figure out just how they are juding the conference as mediocre.

Losing nearly impossible to win FBS games, which the majority of the SoCon has played, has done nothing more than show that we'll lose the games we're expected to lose. Every SoCon team had good stats in their FBS loss, so its not like they going in and getting completely embarrassed off the fields. And I really wouldn't say that these are paydays more than winnable.

App @ ECU - local interest
Elon @ Wake - local interest
Samford @ UCF - local interest, ie, lots of Samford alumni in that area as well as a focal point of Samford recruiting
The Citadel @ UNC - local interest

Just like:
W&M @ UVa = local interest
JMU @ Maryland = local Interest
Northeastern @ Boston College = local interest

Etc

I don't why you take such offense to me just putting the numbers up, it's not a knock on the CAA. It's merely an explanation on why things aren't as bleak as some GSU and App fans are making it out to be.

[BDKJMU]

I don't think it is harsh by any means. But the the only way the first two games would show you anything is if Elon had been beaten.

McNeese almost loses to Henderson ST( I think, sorry I didn't look) and look what they did to ASU. Maine almost loses to a lower division and has so far proved to be less than wonderful with a loss to Albany. UNH barely beats arguably the worst FCS team over the last few years and then beats a BAll State team that would probably be beaten by at least 30 to 35% of FCS teams and yet know one is talking about how far they have slipped ( I don't think they have).

Teams that win the games they should win and lose the ones they should be lose should rarely be looked at differently than original surmised unless there are other over riding reasons to do so. Especially when they are playing FBS or lower divisions or teams that have played like they belong in lower divisions.

Of Course I am not talking about looking at a team as number 15 instead of number 10 because at this point in the season it is still a big who knows.

One other thing that many have mentioned, there is a huge difference in playing Ball St and Duke than playing Missouri or even an apparently good Wake Forest. I am not saying one is better than the other. I would prefer Furman to play winnable FBS games than simply money games.

Wake, I'm not sure how good they are. They lost to Baylor, who's not very good (for a BCS anyway). My guess is looking at their schedule Wake likely finishes around 6-6/3-5 ACC.

[gophoenix]

Wake, I'm not sure how good they are. They lost to Baylor, who's not very good (for a BCS anyway). My guess is looking at their schedule Wake likely finishes around 6-6/3-5 ACC.

They also beat Stanford, who is good. Hard to judge a team by 1 loss or 1 win. IE look at Michigan after App beat them.

[PaladinFan]

They also beat Stanford, who is good. Hard to judge a team by 1 loss or 1 win. IE look at Michigan after App beat them.

Didn't Richmond lose to Duke last year (or was it JMU)? Duke is the worst team in a mediocre league.

[OL FU]

Wake, I'm not sure how good they are. They lost to Baylor, who's not very good (for a BCS anyway). My guess is looking at their schedule Wake likely finishes around 6-6/3-5 ACC.

They aren't Virgina or Duke:)

[ElonPride]

Didn't Richmond lose to Duke last year (or was it JMU)? Duke is the worst team in a mediocre league.

Yup! Duke was absolutely gash that year.....

[GannonFan]

I am not unhappy with my choice. The ASU fan is judging the conference based on those games. This should show that in reality, none of the SoCon team should have a change in any of those games, outside of the ECU and UCF perhaps. And in reality, those games not only are against stiffer competition but are farther along in the season, so it is harder to fault the teams for losing. It's hard to judge the conference on those games. So, trying to figure out just how they are juding the conference as mediocre.

Losing nearly impossible to win FBS games, which the majority of the SoCon has played, has done nothing more than show that we'll lose the games we're expected to lose. Every SoCon team had good stats in their FBS loss, so its not like they going in and getting completely embarrassed off the fields. And I really wouldn't say that these are paydays more than winnable.

App @ ECU - local interest
Elon @ Wake - local interest
Samford @ UCF - local interest, ie, lots of Samford alumni in that area as well as a focal point of Samford recruiting
The Citadel @ UNC - local interest

Just like:
W&M @ UVa = local interest
JMU @ Maryland = local Interest
Northeastern @ Boston College = local interest

Etc

I don't why you take such offense to me just putting the numbers up, it's not a knock on the CAA. It's merely an explanation on why things aren't as bleak as some GSU and App fans are making it out to be.

All I was doing was in reference to the thread title. People play FBS games for a variety of reasons and they're all good reasons. However, there are only so many games on which to judge a team for playoff worthiness. When you play a real tough FBS game, or as Furman is doing and play two of them, you're reducing the chance you have to show the committee the team that you have. When it comes down to selection time, the committee tends to go with teams with proven outcomes more than they do a team with potential, but one who hasn't played the same number of winnable games. It's a trade off and it's fine. It all depends on what you want to target.

[gophoenix]

All I was doing was in reference to the thread title. People play FBS games for a variety of reasons and they're all good reasons. However, there are only so many games on which to judge a team for playoff worthiness. When you play a real tough FBS game, or as Furman is doing and play two of them, you're reducing the chance you have to show the committee the team that you have. When it comes down to selection time, the committee tends to go with teams with proven outcomes more than they do a team with potential, but one who hasn't played the same number of winnable games. It's a trade off and it's fine. It all depends on what you want to target.

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. The committee has shown that they will go with history and attendance before they go with proven outcomes.

[GannonFan]

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. The committee has shown that they will go with history and attendance before they go with proven outcomes.

Examples???

[gophoenix]

Examples???

WKU, Hofstra, Elon, Liberty, Cal Poly, Coastal, Wofford

[GannonFan]

WKU, Hofstra, Elon, Liberty, Cal Poly, Coastal, Wofford

Sooooo, who with the history and attendance got in over these teams that was not warranted by the outcomes? xcoffeex

Obviously teams get snubbed, that happens all the time. You said that history and attendance, however, were the main drivers for these snubs. So let's have it, who with those advantages got in over these teams? (and don't say Maine got in over Liberty based on history and attendance - Maine has been in the playoffs 3 times in the past 20 years and has no attendance to speak of. And attendance matters little when the team getting in is being sent on the road anyway in the first round).

[Waco Kid]

WKU, Hofstra, Elon, Liberty, Cal Poly, Coastal, Wofford

Several of these teams played very weak schedules the years they got left out. Also, not everyone can get in that deserves it. However, I would personally rather have an 8-3 or even a 7-4 team that played a good schedule over a 10-1 that had an easy road.

[theasushow]

Sooooo, who with the history and attendance got in over these teams that was not warranted by the outcomes? xcoffeex

Obviously teams get snubbed, that happens all the time. You said that history and attendance, however, were the main drivers for these snubs. So let's have it, who with those advantages got in over these teams? (and don't say Maine got in over Liberty based on history and attendance - Maine has been in the playoffs 3 times in the past 20 years and has no attendance to speak of. And attendance matters little when the team getting in is being sent on the road anyway in the first round).

give him a hour or two.....hes tearing through statistics for the last 50 years.

[gophoenix]

Sooooo, who with the history and attendance got in over these teams that was not warranted by the outcomes? xcoffeex

Obviously teams get snubbed, that happens all the time. You said that history and attendance, however, were the main drivers for these snubs. So let's have it, who with those advantages got in over these teams? (and don't say Maine got in over Liberty based on history and attendance - Maine has been in the playoffs 3 times in the past 20 years and has no attendance to speak of. And attendance matters little when the team getting in is being sent on the road anyway in the first round).

Jackson State
NC A&T
Troy State
Colgate
Florida A&M

to name a few

[gophoenix]

give him a hour or two.....hes tearing through statistics for the last 50 years.

I-AA has only been around for 31 years. pre-Elon doesn't really matter to me. So, that goes back 12 years.

But thanks for trying and that great additional post to the thread! xthumbsupx

[theasushow]

I-AA has only been around for 31 years. pre-Elon doesn't really matter to me. So, that goes back 12 years.

But thanks for trying and that great additional post to the thread! xthumbsupx

no! thank YOU. xbowx

[BDKJMU]

Yup! Duke was absolutely gash that year.....

Your clueless about Duke last yr. Duke besides beating JMU beat UVA 31-3, beat bowl Navy and Vandy teams, and lost to a bowl Wake team in OT. Duke was 57th in the Sagarin last year (55th of 119 I-A). Only got blwon out (3 or more TDs twice- @ GT and @ Clemson.

This season they appear to have regressed.

[BDKJMU]

Jackson State
NC A&T
Troy State
Colgate
Florida A&M

to name a few

Which years? You yet to give any examples naming specific teams in specific years.

[BDKJMU]

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. The committee has shown that they will go with history and attendance before they go with proven outcomes.

BS. Give examples. Which teams in which year? Nevermind, you can't because your full of it...

[Skjellyfetti]

Your clueless about Duke last yr. Duke besides beating JMU beat UVA 31-3, beat bowl Navy and Vandy teams, and lost to a bowl Wake team in OT. Duke was 57th in the Sagarin last year (55th of 119 I-A). Only got blwon out (3 or more TDs twice- @ GT and @ Clemson.

This season they appear to have regressed.



Sagarin is crap. Have you seen his top 10 or top 25 lately?

Navy, Vandy and Virginia... those were Duke's only 3 FBS wins last year.

Duke sucked last year and they also suck this year. You can debate their level of suckage if you would like...

[GannonFan]

Jackson State
NC A&T
Troy State
Colgate
Florida A&M

to name a few


Which years? You yet to give any examples naming specific teams in specific years.

I agree - what years are you talking about? But even without the years:

NC A&T??? The only time they've made the playoffs is as an autobid winner of the MEAC. Surely you can't mean them? And besides, they've never hosted an NCAA playoff game so why would their attendance matter at all (since they have no history)?

Florida A&M?? They've hosted one game ever, and most of their bids, which aren't that many, are autobids.

Jackson St?? Their most recent at large appearance (back in 1997) was after they went 9-2, and they still went on the road in the first round (again defeating this whole idea that it's attendance based). And again, most of their appearances are auto-bids.

You have to come up with something better than this to justify your opinion or it won't be anything more than an unsubstantied one. xnonox

[terrierbob]

Several of these teams played very weak schedules the years they got left out. Also, not everyone can get in that deserves it. However, I would personally rather have an 8-3 or even a 7-4 team that played a good schedule over a 10-1 that had an easy road.

Not such a weak schedule; the problem game was freakin' VMI.

2002 (9-3, 6-2 SoCon)

A 31 Newberry 48 0 H W
S 14 South Carolina State 7 6 A W
S 21 Georgia Southern* 14 7 A W
S 28 Maryland 8 37 A L
O 5 Chattanooga* 27 21 H W
O 12 VMI* 16 27 A L
O 19 Western Carolina* 31 24 H W
O 26 Appalachian State* 26 19 A W
N 2 The Citadel* 27 14 H W
N 9 East Tennessee State * 39 10 A W
N 16 Furman* 21 23 H L
N 23 Elon 34 9 A W


The origin of "Woofed".

[BDKJMU]

Not such a weak schedule; the problem game was freakin' VMI.

2002 (9-3, 6-2 SoCon)

A 31 Newberry 48 0 H W
S 14 South Carolina State 7 6 A W
S 21 Georgia Southern* 14 7 A W
S 28 Maryland 8 37 A L
O 5 Chattanooga* 27 21 H W
O 12 VMI* 16 27 A L
O 19 Western Carolina* 31 24 H W
O 26 Appalachian State* 26 19 A W
N 2 The Citadel* 27 14 H W
N 9 East Tennessee State * 39 10 A W
N 16 Furman* 21 23 H L
N 23 Elon 34 9 A W


The origin of "Woofed".

8-3 (Div II doesn't count) and you lost to VMI. Looks like Wofford didn't deserve the playoffs that year...

[GannonFan]

Not such a weak schedule; the problem game was freakin' VMI.

2002 (9-3, 6-2 SoCon)

A 31 Newberry 48 0 H W
S 14 South Carolina State 7 6 A W
S 21 Georgia Southern* 14 7 A W
S 28 Maryland 8 37 A L
O 5 Chattanooga* 27 21 H W
O 12 VMI* 16 27 A L
O 19 Western Carolina* 31 24 H W
O 26 Appalachian State* 26 19 A W
N 2 The Citadel* 27 14 H W
N 9 East Tennessee State * 39 10 A W
N 16 Furman* 21 23 H L
N 23 Elon 34 9 A W


The origin of "Woofed".

Besides the aforementioned issues, the other problems were that Wofford basically going to be the 4th team from the SoCon that year - they tied with Furman but Furman had the head to head, and they really got Woofed by Appy St, whom Wofford beat and tied in conference, but Appy had the better overall schedule.

And nationally, and probably more important, two conferences got teams in who won their autobids but wouldn't had made it otherwise. Montana St made the playoffs that year at 7-5 but won the Big Sky autobid (one of those years when Montana wasn't that great). And Murray St got in at 7-4 but they won the OVC autobid over EIU. When teams steal autobids, somebody eventually gets left out.

[Skjellyfetti]

8-3 (Div II doesn't count) and you lost to VMI. Looks like Wofford didn't deserve the playoffs that year...

VMI wasn't terrible in 2002. They were .500.

Losses to a good Furman team, a medioce VMI team, and a BCS FBS school. Also a win on the road over VERY good Georgia Southern and App teams.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

8-3 (Div II doesn't count) and you lost to VMI. Looks like Wofford didn't deserve the playoffs that year...

Wofford in 2002 beat playoff GSU and ASU teams in Statesboro and Boone. They are still to this date the only SoCon team to win a regular season game in Paulson Stadium against a playoff GSU team (and that includes Marshall). It was a travesty leaving them out.

[GannonFan]

Wofford in 2002 beat playoff GSU and ASU teams in Statesboro and Boone. They are still to this date the only SoCon team to win a regular season game in Paulson Stadium against a playoff GSU team (and that includes Marshall). It was a travesty leaving them out.

Again, basically the 4th place team in the SoCon and in a year where two other conferences (the Big Sky and the OVC) had upset winners take the autibids over teams that were going to make the playoffs without the bids. How often have there been two upset winners of autobids in the nation in the same year?

Maybe Appy St should've been left out and Wofford been put in instead?

[GATA]

Besides the aforementioned issues, the other problems were that Wofford basically going to be the 4th team from the SoCon that year - they tied with Furman but Furman had the head to head, and they really got Woofed by Appy St, whom Wofford beat and tied in conference, but Appy had the better overall schedule.

And nationally, and probably more important, two conferences got teams in who won their autobids but wouldn't had made it otherwise. Montana St made the playoffs that year at 7-5 but won the Big Sky autobid (one of those years when Montana wasn't that great). And Murray St got in at 7-4 but they won the OVC autobid over EIU. When teams steal autobids, somebody eventually gets left out.


It's not a problem for the CAA to get 8-9 teams in per year but the SOCON can't get 4? I see...

[gophoenix]

I agree - what years are you talking about? But even without the years:

NC A&T??? The only time they've made the playoffs is as an autobid winner of the MEAC. Surely you can't mean them? And besides, they've never hosted an NCAA playoff game so why would their attendance matter at all (since they have no history)?

Florida A&M?? They've hosted one game ever, and most of their bids, which aren't that many, are autobids.

Jackson St?? Their most recent at large appearance (back in 1997) was after they went 9-2, and they still went on the road in the first round (again defeating this whole idea that it's attendance based). And again, most of their appearances are auto-bids.

You have to come up with something better than this to justify your opinion or it won't be anything more than an unsubstantied one. xnonox

Team historically getting good attendance historically also travel well. ie HBCU schools for one.

1995 8-3 Liberty, EKU in at 8-3, SF Austin at 9-2 with 2 D-II wins
1997: Liberty, Cal Poly at 9-2 but Colgate, Hampton and Jackson St taken
1999: FL A&M, over Elon at 9-2 wih 2 D-II wins and 2-2 against playoff opponents

Want me to continue?

[GannonFan]

It's not a problem for the CAA to get 8-9 teams in per year but the SOCON can't get 4? I see...

Math a problem down there?? xlolx

The CAA's gotten, at most, 5 out of their 12 teams into a playoff in a given year. That's a 41% inclusion rate. The SoCon getting 4 out of 9 in would be a 44% inclusion rate. So yes, the SoCon could, conceivably, get an even better inclusion rate than the CAA ever had - certainly possible. However, in 2002, again, two at larges were basically stolen when the Big Sky and OVC had upset winners over teams that were basically already in the playoffs (those two conferences got 2 teams in each as a result). Therein was the problem for Wofford and the SoCon in 2002.

The CAA's only going to get 7-8 teams into the playoffs once they expand the playoffs to 24 teams and when the CAA expands to a 14 team conference. Haven't gotten there yet!! :p

[GannonFan]

Team historically getting good attendance historically also travel well. ie HBCU schools for one.

1995 8-3 Liberty, EKU in at 8-3, SF Austin at 9-2 with 2 D-II wins
1997: Liberty, Cal Poly at 9-2 but Colgate, Hampton and Jackson St taken
1999: FL A&M, over Elon at 9-2 wih 2 D-II wins and 2-2 against playoff opponents

Want me to continue?

You're joking, right? You think they got in because the NCAA thought they'd travel well??? Have you seen attendances in the 1st round? Nobody travels well for the first round of the playoffs. Do you think Hampton packed them in at YSU back in 1997? Or that Jackson St took busloads up to Macomb, IL in '97? That's laughable at best!

And Cal Poly in 1997? Didn't they play at least 3 teams that were either NAIA, DII, or lower? Same with Liberty that year - at least 2 lower division teams on the schedule.

Seriously, you can continue if you want, but if you're going to keep putting out weak examples like this I'd suggest you not even bother.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Again, basically the 4th place team in the SoCon and in a year where two other conferences (the Big Sky and the OVC) had upset winners take the autibids over teams that were going to make the playoffs without the bids. How often have there been two upset winners of autobids in the nation in the same year?

Maybe Appy St should've been left out and Wofford been put in instead?

So it's not okay to put a fourth SoCon team (with two wins over playoff teams on the road) over an OVC, but it is okay to put a fifth CAA team (with no wins over playoff teams) over Jacksonville State who was 8-3 (with all 8 wins being DI)?.

[BDKJMU]

So it's not okay to put a fourth SoCon team (with two wins over playoff teams on the road) over an OVC, but it is okay to put a fifth CAA team (with no wins over playoff teams) over Jacksonville State who was 8-3 (with all 8 wins being DI)?.

J State had no wins over playoff teams at 8-3 compared to Maine who had no wins over playoff teams at 8-4. Then you have to look at who had a tougher schedule and compare Maine's 8 wins to JSU's. And in that case, Maine was the more deserving team.

[gophoenix]

You're joking, right? You think they got in because the NCAA thought they'd travel well??? Have you seen attendances in the 1st round? Nobody travels well for the first round of the playoffs. Do you think Hampton packed them in at YSU back in 1997? Or that Jackson St took busloads up to Macomb, IL in '97? That's laughable at best!

And Cal Poly in 1997? Didn't they play at least 3 teams that were either NAIA, DII, or lower? Same with Liberty that year - at least 2 lower division teams on the schedule.

Seriously, you can continue if you want, but if you're going to keep putting out weak examples like this I'd suggest you not even bother.

If you go and look at the schedules, all end up with near the same wins when D-II are factored out.

In 1995 Liberty had 1 D-II, which balances out to 7-3. but you notice, other at larges end up with D-II games and a 7-3 record.

In 1997 Liberty had 2 D-II games to balance out to 7-2, but you'll also notice the at large teams at 7-3 after D-II are taken out. The same with Cal Poly that year.

In 1999, Elon had 2 D-II games, which balanced to 7-2, going 3-2 in top 15 games.

And to the traveling base.....

Maybe math is a weak point up there? For instance. A&T, A&M, and JSU all average 20K+, which they did back then. say 10% travel for the playoffs, which seems to be the number floated around. That is 2000 traveling fans. If Cal Poly average 5000 per game and Liberty averages 7000 or Elon averages 6000 or Wofford averages 6000 and the same 10% thinking applies; then those schools have 600-700 fans traveling to an away game. So, you can see by simple Math how the greater home attendance applies to the greater the away traveling potential?

[Waco Kid]

Not such a weak schedule; the problem game was freakin' VMI.

2002 (9-3, 6-2 SoCon)

A 31 Newberry 48 0 H W
S 14 South Carolina State 7 6 A W
S 21 Georgia Southern* 14 7 A W
S 28 Maryland 8 37 A L
O 5 Chattanooga* 27 21 H W
O 12 VMI* 16 27 A L
O 19 Western Carolina* 31 24 H W
O 26 Appalachian State* 26 19 A W
N 2 The Citadel* 27 14 H W
N 9 East Tennessee State * 39 10 A W
N 16 Furman* 21 23 H L
N 23 Elon 34 9 A W


The origin of "Woofed".

Thats why I said "several" not all. You guys probably should have made it that year.

[Waco Kid]

Team historically getting good attendance historically also travel well. ie HBCU schools for one.

1995 8-3 Liberty, EKU in at 8-3, SF Austin at 9-2 with 2 D-II wins
1997: Liberty, Cal Poly at 9-2 but Colgate, Hampton and Jackson St taken
1999: FL A&M, over Elon at 9-2 wih 2 D-II wins and 2-2 against playoff opponents

Want me to continue?

What wins did Liberty, Elon, and Cal Poly have in these years to prove they were the better choice?

SF Austin may have had 2 DII wins, but they also played a tough conference schedule unlike Liberty and EKU. SFA was good enough to come to Boone and knock off a 12-0 team that year so it looks the the committee got it right.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

J State had no wins over playoff teams at 8-3 compared to Maine who had no wins over playoff teams at 8-4. Then you have to look at who had a tougher schedule and compare Maine's 8 wins to JSU's. And in that case, Maine was the more deserving team.

You missed the point.

[GannonFan]

And to the traveling base.....

Maybe math is a weak point up there? For instance. A&T, A&M, and JSU all average 20K+, which they did back then. say 10% travel for the playoffs, which seems to be the number floated around. That is 2000 traveling fans. If Cal Poly average 5000 per game and Liberty averages 7000 or Elon averages 6000 or Wofford averages 6000 and the same 10% thinking applies; then those schools have 600-700 fans traveling to an away game. So, you can see by simple Math how the greater home attendance applies to the greater the away traveling potential?

10%? Only someone who's never been to a playoff game is going to throw a number out like that. It's just so out and right wrong and terribly inflated that it begs the question where you even came up with that number. Do you honestly think Delaware took 2000 fans out to Cedar Falls in '07 to play Northern Iowa? Do you honestly think Northern Iowa brought 1600 to Newark in '03? Do you even know where Macomb, IL is? Do you still want to think that Jackson St brought 10% of their normal attendance all the way there? xrotatehx

[Saint3333]

That 1999 FAMU team was legit, bad example.

[ElonPride]

That 1999 FAMU team was legit, bad example.

Yes that team was legit, but wasn't it also a team that lead FAMU to NCAA infractions????

Also, that year ELon tore up A&T, whom went into the playoffs and destroyed the #1 seed!!!

[AppMan]

Why not just open the playoffs to everyone with a winning record so nobody will have anything to whine about. Good grief!

[GATA]

Math a problem down there?? xlolx

The CAA's gotten, at most, 5 out of their 12 teams into a playoff in a given year. That's a 41% inclusion rate. The SoCon getting 4 out of 9 in would be a 44% inclusion rate. So yes, the SoCon could, conceivably, get an even better inclusion rate than the CAA ever had - certainly possible. However, in 2002, again, two at larges were basically stolen when the Big Sky and OVC had upset winners over teams that were basically already in the playoffs (those two conferences got 2 teams in each as a result). Therein was the problem for Wofford and the SoCon in 2002.

The CAA's only going to get 7-8 teams into the playoffs once they expand the playoffs to 24 teams and when the CAA expands to a 14 team conference. Haven't gotten there yet!! :p

You ever heard of sarcasm?...or maybe hyperbole? or perhaps exaggeration?

[PaladinFan]

You ever heard of sarcasm?...or maybe hyperbole? or perhaps exaggeration?

I didn't realize a GSU fan knew the word "hyperbole."


ooonnnllly kidding. xsmiley_wix