Six CAA teams in the playoffs?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I know it's early, but this certainly doesn't seem too far out...This is the way I see the breakdown of the AL bids. It all comes down to the FBS wins.


MVC - 2
UNI, Southern Illinois, and South Dakota State I think will all finish with 8 or more wins and get in

CAA - 5
A 7-4 team with 7 DI wins including an FBS win (even if it is a MAC team) will get into the playoffs before a 7-4 SoCon or Big Sky team with 7 DI wins and no FBS win. They will also more likely get in over an 8+ win team from the OVC, MEAC, and Patriot League teams with no FBS wins. It's only fair and history has shown the committee doesn't hesitate to include 7-4 teams with FBS wins (UNH in 2007 and Montana State in 2006 are examples). The CAA's having more winnable FBS games plus their ability to actually get the job done when they do have the winnable games (unlike Samford, App. State, Eastern Kentucky, Weber State, and Southern Illinois) will help them get six in.

The last bid will probably go to either a SoCon, SLC, or Big Sky team. If the SoCon doesn't get an FBS win this weekend I will say the SoCon is a one-bid league. If they do, I will say the SoCon most likely gets the 8th AL bid.

Not complaining, just saying what I think will be the most fair way to dish out the bids should things pan out the way it seems that they will. xcoffeex

[joecooll6]

I hate to say it, but the way things are panning out early, with Weber starting 0-2, Eastern Washington being ineligable for now, Montana State playing poorly,and Appy losing, that is a definate possibilty. I think the SoCon gets at least 2 bids, if the MVC gets 3, and BSC only gets 1, with 4 one bid leagues possibly, the CAA could get 6.

Thats a long, long, long way off though. Something else will happen. I doubt they get six.

[ChickenMan]

Not very likely as the five possible contenders in the CAA South (UR, JMU, Nova, W&M, UD) all have to play each other.. plus they all have to play either UNH or UMass out of the North.. that's five very difficult league games. In the North.. UNH looks to have the easiest road to the playoffs having to play Nova and at W&M. UMass has to play at Richmond and at UD.. while having JMU at home. With all these CAA contenders playing so many games vs each other.. it's going to be pretty difficult for six of those schools to finish with four loses or less.

[WestCoastAggie]

what if that 7-4 CAA team has a .500 record in conference?

[ChickenMan]

what if that 7-4 CAA team has a .500 record in conference?

If the CAA ends up having seven schools in the final Top 25.. a .500 league record probably won't be considered a big negative.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

what if that 7-4 CAA team has a .500 record in conference?

That would depend what other at large records are out there.

A couple years ago UNH got in at 7-4 with a win over Marshall but iirc there wasn't an 8 D1 win team out there.

[Tribe4SF]

The committee has its own power rating which I gather is not very different from the GPI, so the CAA is off to a good start in establishing a strong power position. I doubt six is a possibility, but the groundwork is layed to get five in again.

[Dukie95]

Not very likely as the five possible contenders in the CAA South (UR, JMU, Nova, W&M, UD) all have to play each other.. plus they all have to play either UNH or UMass out of the North.. that's five very difficult league games. In the North.. UNH looks to have the easiest road to the playoffs having to play Nova and at W&M. UMass has to play at Richmond and at UD.. while having JMU at home. With all these CAA contenders playing so many games vs each other.. it's going to be pretty difficult for six of those schools to finish with four loses or less.

Actually, it's still possible for 7 CAA teams to earn 8 D-I wins.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1406909#post1406909

[ChickenMan]

Actually, it's still possible for 7 CAA teams to earn 8 D-I wins.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1406909#post1406909


It's possible.. but not very likely.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Not very likely as the five possible contenders in the CAA South (UR, JMU, Nova, W&M, UD) all have to play each other.. plus they all have to play either UNH or UMass out of the North.. that's five very difficult league games. In the North.. UNH looks to have the easiest road to the playoffs having to play Nova and at W&M. UMass has to play at Richmond and at UD.. while having JMU at home. With all these CAA contenders playing so many games vs each other.. it's going to be pretty difficult for six of those schools to finish with four loses or less.

Only five games are CAA south games for CAA south teams. If all the CAA South teams have 0-3 CAA south losses, it's a possibility. I don't think the odds of having 6 teams that either have 8+ wins or 7 wins and an FBS win (especially considering Delaware still has to play Navy) are that slim.

[WMTribe90]

Right now (based on the four FBS wins) I'd say there is a 20% chance that the CAA finishes with 6 schools with 8 or more DI wins. If this happens it will come down to what happens in the other conferences as to wether the CAA gets a sixth or someone gets left out. Chances are Hofstra, NU, Towson and URI pull some upsets to kill the chance for six. Five is a strong possibility at this point.

[Dukie95]

I think 5 is a lock at this point. As I posted on the CAAZone yesterday, I don't think any CAA teams need to do much scoreboard watching around the country...the competition for those 4 at-large spots are all coming from the CAA.

The only OOC upset I can see happening among the 7 we're talking about would be JMU losing to Liberty...that would be a disaster for the Dukes. You can pretty much forward JMU's bid down to Lynchburg should that happen.

By the way, UNH can get 8 wins without even having to win their toughest games (WM, Nova, UMass).

[GATA]

When not just put all 19 CAA teams in the tournament?

You know the selection committee loves them anyway. Hell, go ahead and throw Georgia State in there for good measure.

[wideright82]

When not just put all 19 CAA teams in the tournament?

You know the selection committee loves them anyway. Hell, go ahead and throw Georgia State in there for good measure.


Awww is someone bitter that their team isn't any good anymore? Pobrecita :(

[ChickenMan]

When not just put all 19 CAA teams in the tournament?

You know the selection committee loves them anyway. Hell, go ahead and throw Georgia State in there for good measure.

the way things are going in both the CAA and the SoCon the next GSU to make the playoffs won't be from Statesboro...

:p

[89Hen]

When not just put all 19 CAA teams in the tournament?
I guess you could throw AppSt in there since they're the only non-CAA team to win it since 2002. xsmiley_wix

[URMite]

I think 5 is a lock at this point. As I posted on the CAAZone yesterday, I don't think any CAA teams need to do much scoreboard watching around the country...the competition for those 4 at-large spots are all coming from the CAA.

The only OOC upset I can see happening among the 7 we're talking about would be JMU losing to Liberty...that would be a disaster for the Dukes. You can pretty much forward JMU's bid down to Lynchburg should that happen.

By the way, UNH can get 8 wins without even having to win their toughest games (WM, Nova, UMass).

I still like my idea of having Liberty upset Nova in the quarters - setting up 2 all VA rematch semis - Liberty/JMU W&M/UR xlolx

[Jackman]

By the way, UNH can get 8 wins without even having to win their toughest games (WM, Nova, UMass).

They can start booking their flight to UNI if that happens.

[JMU Newbill]

Let's save this discussion for 3 weeks.

Once we are 5 weeks into the season, revisit it. Then, let's see how many people will argue that 6 of the best 16 FCS teams in the country are not in the CAA. Last year, I would not have agreed (I am not 100% sure the 5 best were in the CAA last year).

I'm not sure that 6 of the best 16 are in the CAA this year as it is too early. But I will say this, I'd be hard pressed to see who will rank JMU or Delaware outside of their best 16 after 5 weeks and a few wins (assuming everyone is in agreement UR and Nova are locks, W&M has looked great the first two weeks and show no signs of slowing down, and UNH has an FBS win + they will win the CAA North).

[Dukie95]

I still like my idea of having Liberty upset Nova in the quarters - setting up 2 all VA rematch semis - Liberty/JMU W&M/UR xlolx

haha..of course, due to geographic pairing, Liberty would have faced one of the VA teams in round one.

Also, I don't think both JMU and Liberty will make the playoffs. Liberty needs the strength of a JMU win and JMU would then only be able to absorb one conference loss the rest of the way to even finish 8-3.

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

the way things are going in both the CAA and the SoCon the next GSU to make the playoffs won't be from Statesboro...

:p

Wow that's a ringer! xlolx

[henfan]

What's really needed right now is further analysis about something that isn't going to happen for another 10 or 11 games.xcoffeex

[SumItUp]

I still like my idea of having Liberty upset Nova in the quarters - setting up 2 all VA rematch semis - Liberty/JMU W&M/UR xlolx

I don't care who they play or where, I would just like to see Liberty with the opportunity to be a part of the playoffs. I think a lot of people could be surprised.

[jmufan999]

odds of the CAA getting 4+ teams in: 96%
odds for 5+: 61%
odds for 6+: 29%

[89Hen]

I don't care who they play or where, I would just like to see Liberty with the opportunity to be a part of the playoffs. I think a lot of people could be surprised.
I would be surprised if Liberty got the opportunity this year. xsmiley_wix

[wideright82]

odds of the CAA getting 4+ teams in: 96%
odds for 5+: 61%
odds for 6+: 29%


So 6 teams are a lock!!!!!!! YES! Start packing your bags CAA South (minus Andy)

[WestCoastAggie]

This year, Liberity should get one of those at large bids if They run the table in the Big South.

[purplepeopleeaterv2]

This year, Liberity should get one of those at large bids if They run the table in the Big South.

Not if JMU blows them out on their home turf. Keep it close or win is their ticket in and if they take care of business in their conference.

[GannonFan]

This year, Liberity should get one of those at large bids if They run the table in the Big South.

Ain't about what they do in the Big South (well, it is if they lose a game) but they'll need to do more than just that to make the playoffs. They have to beat Lafayette (can't lose to a PL team when that conference is in decline) and they have to make it real close or even beat JMU. If they get throttled, at home, by JMU, no way Liberty's making the playoffs.

[Umass74]

The way things are going in the CAA this year, there is a potential for one or two pretty strong CAA teams being left out of the playoffs.

[Dukie95]

Liberty needs to win all OOC games (including JMU). Because the CAA has been so dominant in their OOC games, AND they way they tend to beat each other up, they will likely get 5 teams with at least 8 wins and will get 5 spots. The SOS in the Big South isn't enough to get Liberty into that conversation.

Can Liberty compete with 8-3 or 7-4 from the CAA when their best win is Coastal Carolina? I don't even know who the second best Big South team is...

[Skjellyfetti]

CAA teams beat Duke, Virginia, Temple, and Ball State?!?! xeekx

UNBELIEVABLE!!

Some of those teams are almost ranked in the top 90!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/polls/120/index2

[WestCoastAggie]

Liberty needs to win all OOC games (including JMU). Because the CAA has been so dominant in their OOC games, AND they way they tend to beat each other up, they will likely get 5 teams with at least 8 wins and will get 5 spots. The SOS in the Big South isn't enough to get Liberty into that conversation.

Can Liberty compete with 8-3 or 7-4 from the CAA when their best win is Coastal Carolina? I don't even know who the second best Big South team is...
xwhistlex

[Dukie95]

CAA teams beat Duke, Virginia, Temple, and Ball State?!?! xeekx

UNBELIEVABLE!!

Some of those teams are almost ranked in the top 90!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/polls/120/index2

We can't all get games against the mighty ECU.

[URMite]

CAA teams beat Duke, Virginia, Temple, and Ball State?!?! xeekx

UNBELIEVABLE!!

Some of those teams are almost ranked in the top 90!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/polls/120/index2

Yes! We missed Kansas State & MD but still have Syracuse & Navy to go. xthumbsupx

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

It seems we have this thread every year.....

Then the CAA games start.....and the upsets.....and then the must win games in November.

[mcveyrl]

CAA teams beat Duke, Virginia, Temple, and Ball State?!?! xeekx

UNBELIEVABLE!!

Some of those teams are almost ranked in the top 90!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/polls/120/index2

I don't think the point is the quality of the opponent (which you have to admit is still good even if it's lower tier I-A). The point is there's an extra D-I win that wasn't expected, giving them more shots at 8 wins.

[joecooll6]

Let's save this discussion for 3 weeks.

Once we are 5 weeks into the season, revisit it. Then, let's see how many people will argue that 6 of the best 16 FCS teams in the country are not in the CAA. Last year, I would not have agreed (I am not 100% sure the 5 best were in the CAA last year).

I'm not sure that 6 of the best 16 are in the CAA this year as it is too early. But I will say this, I'd be hard pressed to see who will rank JMU or Delaware outside of their best 16 after 5 weeks and a few wins (assuming everyone is in agreement UR and Nova are locks, W&M has looked great the first two weeks and show no signs of slowing down, and UNH has an FBS win + they will win the CAA North).

Well the question really should be are 6 of the top 12 or 13 teams from the CAA, not 16, cause we all know 3 or 4 spots will go to autobid teams who are not one of the 16 best.

Not that I have a problem with that, cause I don't.

[joecooll6]

What's really needed right now is further analysis about something that isn't going to happen for another 10 or 11 games.xcoffeex

Thats what message boards are for!

[caribbeanhen]

the CAA is so good its no fun around here...everyone knows and nobody talking smack

[BDKJMU]

Not very likely as the five possible contenders in the CAA South (UR, JMU, Nova, W&M, UD) all have to play each other.. plus they all have to play either UNH or UMass out of the North.. that's five very difficult league games. In the North.. UNH looks to have the easiest road to the playoffs having to play Nova and at W&M. UMass has to play at Richmond and at UD.. while having JMU at home. With all these CAA contenders playing so many games vs each other.. it's going to be pretty difficult for six of those schools to finish with four loses or less.

You made a typo. That should read, "it's going to be pretty difficult for six of those schools to finish with three loses or less. 4 loss CAA ain't getting in this yr.

[BDKJMU]

I think 5 is a lock at this point. As I posted on the CAAZone yesterday, I don't think any CAA teams need to do much scoreboard watching around the country...the competition for those 4 at-large spots are all coming from the CAA.

The only OOC upset I can see happening among the 7 we're talking about would be JMU losing to Liberty...that would be a disaster for the Dukes. You can pretty much forward JMU's bid down to Lynchburg should that happen.

By the way, UNH can get 8 wins without even having to win their toughest games (WM, Nova, UMass).

xeyebrowxxeyebrowx

[BDKJMU]

Liberty needs to win all OOC games (including JMU). Because the CAA has been so dominant in their OOC games, AND they way they tend to beat each other up, they will likely get 5 teams with at least 8 wins and will get 5 spots. The SOS in the Big South isn't enough to get Liberty into that conversation.

Can Liberty compete with 8-3 or 7-4 from the CAA when their best win is Coastal Carolina? I don't even know who the second best Big South team is...

95, you bolded the above as if it was a done deal....

Heck, the CAA, barring a monster UD over Nova upset, won't even have 5 teams with 7 wins, much less 8.

[HensRock]

With the loss to Navy, Delaware is eliminated. They cannot get to 7 D-I wins, even with an upset at Villanova.

[Dukie95]

Note to self...never disagree with BDK.

As I explained on the CAAZone, where you also called me out for being wrong, I explained that I assumed there would be more parity in the CAA South.

UD and JMU could not hang with the top 3 (and I assume UD won't hang with Nova next week)

I also didn't think W&M would be that improved. I expected UD and JMU to pick up their share of wins against those top three, and that didn't happen.

I'm quite sure I wasn't alone...yet I'm the one that get called out on two different message boards.

[BDKJMU]

You were the only one I saw here saying 5 was a lock. On the Zone when I suggested then that 4 was a possibility you shot me down basically saying 5 was a done deal.