SoCon Forecast - Appalachian State

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

The Good - Appy is loaded. AE is back. What else can you say?

The Bad - The Bulls Eye on ASU's chest does not get any smaller just because App's championship streak ended. App. has a 5 week stretch at the end of the season where they must play hungry Elon, Furman, and Wofford teams on the road and GSU (who has certainly given ASU fits lately) at home. If AE does not play in the first two games and ASU starts 0-2 making the playoffs will be difficult.

The Verdict - If losing Satterfield isn't an issue and Edwards stays healthy and App. State is good enough to run the table in this SoCon, no one will stop them from winning number 4.

OOC game predictions

East Carolina
-If AE is 100% and plays - ASU wins 31-24
-If AE can't run and plays anyway - ECU wins 38-10
-If DeAndre Presley plays ECU wins 34-20

McNeese State
-If AE is 100% and plays - ASU wins 34-17
-If AE can't run and plays anyway - McNeese wins 27-20
-If DeAndre Presley plays - ASU wins 28-17

North Carolina Central
assuming AE recovers from his lawn mower mishap by this game and doesn't sustain another injury, App. wins 42-10

[PaladinFan]

I don't think they'll get through the conference undefeated as they just have too many difficult road games. I know App fans are quick to point out Pressley and how he's the second coming, but let's be serious. Armanti Edwards makes that team go. I wish him a speedy recovery, but an injury to that single player muddle the SoCon race considerably.

I think App has the talent to beat McNeese whether Edwards plays or not. I don't think they can beat ECU without him at 100%.

[millwoga1]

As long as Armanti stays on the football field and out of his backyard, nc is my vote and nine regular season wins. loss to east carolina and one socon team.

[ASUG8]

Both of the above are very fair assessments - no idea who the SoCon loss will be, but I think we'll lose one, maybe two.

[OL FU]

I said 9 wins and no NC.

Not because I don't think ASU is good enough to win the NC, I do.
Not because I don't think they should be one of top couple of teams favored to win it pre-season, I do.

But to win the NC many many many things have to go just right. Winning three in a row is a remarkable occurence and a celebrated feat. But as good as they were in 05, if Martin does not fall on the two yard line, ASU doesn't win the NC. In 07, if JMU kicks the field goal, ASU doesn't have a NC that year. None of that is knocking ASU, it is just a fact that winning the entire thing usually takes a combination of being a superb team and having some breaks fall your way during the season and the playoffs. xthumbsupx

[The Cats]

- no idea who the SoCon loss will be, but I think we'll lose one, maybe two.

I hope I do.

[jonmac]

What the heck, I'm all in. 15-0.

This is purely a homer choice.

[Mntneer]

I hope I do.

Unlikely. Very, very unlikely :p

[Skjellyfetti]

But to win the NC many many many things have to go just right. Winning three in a row is a remarkable occurence and a celebrated feat. But as good as they were in 05, if Martin does not fall on the two yard line, ASU doesn't win the NC. In 07, if JMU kicks the field goal, ASU doesn't have a NC that year. None of that is knocking ASU, it is just a fact that winning the entire thing usually takes a combination of being a superb team and having some breaks fall your way during the season and the playoffs. xthumbsupx

Yeah, Inge Martin shouldn't have slipped on the two yard line. But, Jerome Felton was stopped in the backfield on 4th down on the very next play. That play was more important. xnodx

Yeah, JMU should have kicked a field goal. But, you are also assuming JMU would have made the field goal. We had a guy on our team that year who was particularly adept at blocking field goals.

And, I see you left out the '06 championship team. I think our team this year will be very comparable, possibly better, than that team.

[Mntneer]

Yeah, Inge Martin shouldn't have slipped on the two yard line. But, Jerome Felton was stopped in the backfield on 4th down on the very next play. That play was more important. xnodx

Yeah, JMU should have kicked a field goal. But, you are also assuming JMU would have made the field goal. We had a guy on our team that year who was particularly adept at blocking field goals.

And, I see you left out the '06 championship team. I think our team this year will be very comparable, possibly better, than that team.

I'm not making a prediction here; too superstitious. But seeing things like 15-0, and "this is the best team we've had yet" (I know you didn't say that), just make me nervous. Yes, we have a lot of talent, but we'll need all of it to be successful. The moment our guys take anything for granted it will fall apart.

[Skjellyfetti]

Yeah, I know what you mean. I was nervous when Dexter Jackson essentially guaranteed a third championship in the Summer before the 2007 season.

I think you need a whole lot of confidence to succeed. Granted, it's easy to become overconfident and let your guard down...

I think after the way last season went a lack of confidence could be more detrimental than taking things for granted. I would be shocked if guys that played in the Richmond or JMU games last year take anything for granted.

[OL FU]

Yeah, Inge Martin shouldn't have slipped on the two yard line. But, Jerome Felton was stopped in the backfield on 4th down on the very next play. That play was more important. xnodx

Yeah, JMU should have kicked a field goal. But, you are also assuming JMU would have made the field goal. We had a guy on our team that year who was particularly adept at blocking field goals.

And, I see you left out the '06 championship team. I think our team this year will be very comparable, possibly better, than that team.


the point wasn't that you didn't deserve those championships, you did. xthumbsupx

the point was when predicting a teams overall record, I will stick to the regular season. picking that team as the national champion because of all the things that could happen is a guess.

Now if the thread title was pick the national champion, it is very possible that ASU would be my pick for 2009 pre-season favorite.

don't read more into what I write, than I actually write. I wasn't knocking the ASU championships. There is nothing to knock. The accomplishment is phenonemal. But unless we are picking favorites out of the bunch. I will stick with the regular season simply because of all the things that have to fall in place to win it allxsmiley_wix


PS, the Felton play was not more important only because Martin had a clear shot in the endzone. Felton had about 11 guys to bull through

[Saint3333]

I hope I do.

I know who it won't be. You're talking about something that hasn't happened since 1984.

[drpnut]

I believe Appy will lose to E. CArolina and Woffy.

And I think they get knocked out of the 2nd round. I think AE will be gimpyonce again, about 70%-80% in the playoff and Coach Moore, because he is a class act sticks with AE out of loyalty and gives the senior one last chance.

Pressley will get his chance next year.


Holla

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Both of the above are very fair assessments - no idea who the SoCon loss will be, but I think we'll lose one, maybe two.

I've got a good idea of who it might be. Hint: It's the only team in the SoCon to not lose to App by double digits in any of the past three seasons. Matter of fact, they are the only team to not lose to App. by double digits in either of the last two seasons. xnodxxcoolx

"Black Saturday" is going to be awesome this year. Count on it. :D

[ASUG8]

I've got a good idea of who it might be. Hint: It's the only team in the SoCon to not lose to App by double digits in any of the past three seasons. Matter of fact, they are the only team to not lose to App. by double digits in either of the last two seasons. xnodxxcoolx

"Black Saturday" is going to be awesome this year. Count on it. :D

I'm not ruling anybody out - GSU always gives App a fit. You guys were a combined 6 points or so from 3 more wins last year.

[PaladinFan]

the point wasn't that you didn't deserve those championships, you did. xthumbsupx

the point was when predicting a teams overall record, I will stick to the regular season. picking that team as the national champion because of all the things that could happen is a guess.

Now if the thread title was pick the national champion, it is very possible that ASU would be my pick for 2009 pre-season favorite.

don't read more into what I write, than I actually write. I wasn't knocking the ASU championships. There is nothing to knock. The accomplishment is phenonemal. But unless we are picking favorites out of the bunch. I will stick with the regular season simply because of all the things that have to fall in place to win it allxsmiley_wix


PS, the Felton play was not more important only because Martin had a clear shot in the endzone. Felton had about 11 guys to bull through

I agree. If Ingle scores the Felton play never even happens. Most people tend to forget just how clear Martin was to the endzone. I don't think there was an App defender within 10 yards of him.

[Saint3333]

The south endzone of KBS is haunted by ASU greats of the past no other explanation for it.

[SoCon48]

I agree. If Ingle scores the Felton play never even happens. Most people tend to forget just how clear Martin was to the endzone. I don't think there was an App defender within 10 yards of him.

I suppose he learned that you can't make that cut on ice.

[OL FU]

I suppose he learned that you can't make that cut on ice.

And you know that adds to the point I was trying to make, when it comes to winning the NC it is a combination of execution and the breaks going your way. Getting to the NC game was in the Paladins grasp and we didn't execute on a play that could have made the difference. ASU executed when they needed to and a break or two plus that execution got them there.

that is why I prefer not to go past the regular season when predicting records, I think I can make a reasonable estimate of who has the talent and the coaches and the proven ability, but I can't estimate which way the next break is going to fall. xthumbsupx

[Waco Kid]

And you know that adds to the point I was trying to make, when it comes to winning the NC it is a combination of execution and the breaks going your way. Getting to the NC game was in the Paladins grasp and we didn't execute on a play that could have made the difference. ASU executed when they needed to and a break or two plus that execution got them there.

that is why I prefer not to go past the regular season when predicting records, I think I can make a reasonable estimate of who has the talent and the coaches and the proven ability, but I can't estimate which way the next break is going to fall. xthumbsupx

Another way to look at it is if Richie doesn't go down early in the game neither play would have mattered most likey. As you said you just never know what will happen once the playoffs begin. Another classic game between our teams.

[OL FU]

Another way to look at it is if Richie doesn't go down early in the game neither play would have mattered most likey. As you said you just never know what will happen once the playoffs begin. Another classic game between our teams.

Asolutely, he was rocking and rolling before his injury

[Waco Kid]

After watching our guys practice a little I will say that top to bottom this is probably the most athletic team I have ever seen in Boone. The last two or three recruiting classes have been very good to us. Now that doesn't automatically translate into W's, but it's nice to see players of that quality on the roster.

[SideLine Shooter]

Another way to look at it is if Richie doesn't go down early in the game neither play would have mattered most likey. As you said you just never know what will happen once the playoffs begin. Another classic game between our teams.

Trey Elder had a pretty good game too.

I have watched the video when Richie gets hurt many times and he got an extra twist on that foot after he was on the ground too.

Also, when Ingle went down on that sure score, I believe Yosef took his feet out from under him.

[Touchdown Yosef]

I will say we make it as Socon champs maybe co-champs but not ready to predict much more than that.

AE's injury really scares me. It leaves a huge question mark on top of two other really big ones. I like our team I think we are loaded and I am optimistic and will be at every home game ECU and a few others as well but my issues are as follows.

No Scott Saterfield. I think this is a bigger deal than most will admit. I don't like Moore as the QB coach and I don't like him calling offensive plays. I think we did a disservice to Armanti and our 6 young QB's by not going out and getting a QB's coach from somewhere but rather used patchwork and put someone in charge of developing the future who has little to no experience with QB's. I think we have the talent to overcome this loss and the coaching staff seems confident but I still think this is our biggest question mark and I don't like it.

O-line: this has been beaten like a dead horse for preseason talk but its a ? and I feel like we may struggle at time but overall will be ok.

AE's injury: No one knows what the effects of this are and how his foot will react to the demands of running the spread. I am optimistic and hope that he literally is ready to go Sept. 5th but I have my doubts as well.

I am extremely excited about our passing attack this year with Quck and Coco as well as our running game. I am even more excited to see how are defense responds this year. I feel like we should really turn the corner and play more consistent, not giving up the big runs and making more big stops in the backfield. Plus I look for us to shut down passing games. I love the defense and I really am expecting them to carry us for a few games this year. If they play well and live up to their expectations it will make us that much harder to beat. Consistent play on offense with that trademark explosiveness and a much improved and sometimes dominant D is how we punch a ticket to Nooga if that is to happen.

I cannot wait for football!

[PaladinFan]

After watching our guys practice a little I will say that top to bottom this is probably the most athletic team I have ever seen in Boone. The last two or three recruiting classes have been very good to us. Now that doesn't automatically translate into W's, but it's nice to see players of that quality on the roster.

My question is O-line depth. It is well documented that App has fallen a bit short in recruiting their lines the past two years. No doubt they have experience returning, but what happens when you get past a few of those starters?

[JDC325]

The SoCon is theirs to lose but I will always take the field concerning one team winning the NC. Ten wins and no NC.

[Skjellyfetti]

No Scott Saterfield. I think this is a bigger deal than most will admit. I don't like Moore as the QB coach and I don't like him calling offensive plays. I think we did a disservice to Armanti and our 6 young QB's by not going out and getting a QB's coach from somewhere but rather used patchwork and put someone in charge of developing the future who has little to no experience with QB's. I think we have the talent to overcome this loss and the coaching staff seems confident but I still think this is our biggest question mark and I don't like it.

Chris Moore isn't the QB coach and won't be calling plays. Brad Glenn is the new QB coach and will take Satterfield's role in calling plays. I don't think anyone on our staff knows the offense we've been running better than Glenn.



I cannot wait for football!

xnodxxnodxxnodxxnodxxnodx
xthumbsupx

[appirishmen]

i say we go 9 wins and i hope a nc....but thats just a homer pick and what do you play for right? like OL FU said...we have to get breaks. i think we will lose to either Elon or GSU. if we beat both of those teams....we have a great chance of winning another nc......o and AE CANT.... i say CANT get hurt again. i think DP is good he is just as quick if not quicker with a very good arm as AE....but he doesnt have the game time or the decision makeing.

[appirishmen]

"Black Saturday" is going to be awesome this year. Count on it. :D

i know it will the GSU game always gives me butterflies because you guys have given us the most trouble in the past few seasons.

[Mntneer]

i say we go 9 wins and i hope a nc....but thats just a homer pick and what do you play for right? like OL FU said...we have to get breaks. i think we will lose to either Elon or GSU. if we beat both of those teams....we have a great chance of winning another nc......o and AE CANT.... i say CANT get hurt again. i think DP is good he is just as quick if not quicker with a very good arm as AE....but he doesnt have the game time or the decision makeing.

Did you just say we might lose to Elon?? xconfusedx

[appirishmen]

Did you just say we might lose to Elon?? xconfusedx

haha wow...i didnt catch that......i meant wofford.....

[ASU_MBA]

I think we lose to ECU and either Elon or GSU....i just don't see a Wofford team that will be worse than last year beating an ASU team that returns 16-17 starters..GSU is always a pain in the butt and Elon will be a tough road game. 10-1 at best...8-3 at the very worst (which means AE gets hurt and/or our O-line lacks depth to run the ball)
The defense has the potential to be the best we have seen in a long long time....this team could win number 4 but will need to stay healthy on offense. Our running game fell off a little last year and we must find it again.

[ASU_MBA]

I hope I do.

The fat lady is still at the Golden Corral Buffet.....i doubt she sings this year at the Rock...but WCU is on the right track.

[ASU_MBA]

My question is O-line depth. It is well documented that App has fallen a bit short in recruiting their lines the past two years. No doubt they have experience returning, but what happens when you get past a few of those starters?

We start pulling people from the stands to play left tackle...This team goes as far as the O-line takes us....they struggled against SC State and Richmond late last year....our run game fell off, it needs to come back in 09

[KiddBrewer]

i want to vote 7 wins and a NC.......because as you know, the committee and high-ups LOVE APPY STATE!xthumbsupxxrulesxxlolx


i just said appy state...xnonono2xxeekxxoopsxxbawlingxxconfusedx

[KiddBrewer]

and just a side note.....the above post ^^^^^ may have the widest range of smilies of any in AGS history

[elon77]

I believe, and everyone is going to call me a homer or crazy (this statement will make me only a 1/2 homer) that Elon and ASU have the best teams. BUT, injuries can play a big part in the season so anything can happen and usually does in the Socon. That's why we play, isn't it? When ASU comes to a sold out Rhodes stadium late in the year it SHOULD be for the conference championship. I've got my ticket.

[DX Man]

I hope I do.


xlolxxnonox

[The Cats]

xlolxxnonox

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/image.php?u=9436&type=sigpic&dateline=1250273305

that's a pretty small pebble, I'd have expected a mountain bolder.

[ASUG8]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/image.php?u=9436&type=sigpic&dateline=1250273305

that's a pretty small pebble, I'd have expected a mountain bolder.


Maybe you could lay under it and see if you can push it off of you....we'd be happy to give you :15 minutes or so to try it xthumbsupx

[straightshooter]

It used to be a lot bigger. GSU came to Boone two years ago and broke off a BIG piece. They're back in Boone this season, so it might be smaller next year too.

[Skjellyfetti]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/image.php?u=9436&type=sigpic&dateline=1250273305

that's a pretty small pebble, I'd have expected a mountain bolder.

I think you're confused.

ROCK:
http://www.highcountrypress.com/weekly/2009/03-12-09/00_photos/feature_photo_stadium.jpg

pebble:
http://www.worldstadiums.com/stadium_pictures/north_america/united_states/north_carolina/cullowhee_whitmire2.jpg

[GSUhooligan]

I think you're confused.

ROCK:
http://www.highcountrypress.com/weekly/2009/03-12-09/00_photos/feature_photo_stadium.jpg

pebble:
http://www.worldstadiums.com/stadium_pictures/north_america/united_states/north_carolina/cullowhee_whitmire2.jpg

not a good comparison unless you're comparing press boxes. At least in the picture, WCU's stadium looks bigger on that side. I know KBS holds more in total, but comparing those two sides it looks like Whitmire seats more.

[AppIAA]

not a good comparison unless you're comparing press boxes. At least in the picture, WCU's stadium looks bigger on that side. I know KBS holds more in total, but comparing those two sides it looks like Whitmire seats more.

Are you serious?

[GSUhooligan]

Are you serious?

Yeah, in the pictures, Whitmire looks like it seats more. Now if the OP was comparing the press box/ luxury boxes of KBS to Whitmire, then the Rock/Pebble thing works.

[AppIAA]

Guess they dont teach perspective at GSU?

[PaladinFan]

not a good comparison unless you're comparing press boxes. At least in the picture, WCU's stadium looks bigger on that side. I know KBS holds more in total, but comparing those two sides it looks like Whitmire seats more.

Best I remember on my last trip to Cullowhee, all the fans (both visitor and home) sit on the same side.

I don't know if App counts the hill or not.

[Skjellyfetti]

It was mainly comparing the pressboxes. But, seating capacity or average attendence would work just as well.

[ASUG8]

Best I remember on my last trip to Cullowhee, all the fans (both visitor and home) sit on the same side.

I don't know if App counts the hill or not.


Whitmire has added a pretty substantial vistor's side now.

[biggie]

I don't know if App counts the hill or not.
FYI, the grass hill does not count in seating capacity (~21k), but they are counted as general admission and show on attendance records (of course).

[ASU_Fanatic]

Loose to ECU, but thats it.

[Saint3333]

Whitmire seats ~14K so the stands on the larger side are probably about the same size. ASU's capacity (seats not hill) will be ~23K for 2009.

[PaladinFan]

Loose to ECU, but thats it.

You will "loose" to more than ECU. Tough tough road schedule.

[Wildcat80]

UNH took a top recruit away...time for ASU to return to Durham for a playoff game...only this time goes home unhappy. see ya in da playoffs!! Go Wildcats!

[biggie]

ASU's capacity (seats not hill) will be ~23K for 2009.
21,650 for 2009

[biggie]

You will "loose" to more than ECU. Tough tough road schedule.
Survived it 2 years ago, only 1 road loss to Woff. Can be done.

[Waco Kid]

The only FCS games that worry me are Furman and GSU. Thats not to say the other games will be easy, but I just don't see us losing to any of them. Furman slowed us down better than anyone last year and it is never an easy win in G-Ville. GSU is another team that always plays us close and they have the best athletes in the conference from top to bottom besides ASU. Elon game may be for the SoCon crown come November, but there is a lot of ball to be played between now and then. It will still be a tough game though. McNeese should play well, but they lost a lot and it will be our home opener so the Boys in Boone will take care of business. As mentioned before Wofford lost a lot from last years team that we demolished and Samford won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. El Cid lost a good bit after not living up to expectations a year ago. UTC and WCU still have a lot of improving to do, and NCCU is still closer to a D2 team than FCS.

Who knows what will happen against ECU? I say we will be in the 11-0 to 9-2 range, but I'm thinking 10-1 is the most likely outcome.

[The Cats]

http://s385.photobucket.com/albums/oo294/mrskjellyfetti/th_float2-1.gif

guess you're gonna have to up grade if you're going to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.....xlmaox

[The Cats]

Whitmire has added a pretty substantial vistor's side now.

not a visitors side, it's the West side....

the Catamount Club has their seating on the West Side.

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/wcar/sports/m-footbl/auto_original/2174822.jpeg

[The Cats]

I think you're confused.

I didn't make any comment about your new press box facilities, but since your only reply to my comment was making that invalid comparison, it must mean you agree with my classification of "the small rock" on display looking like a pebble, otherwise you would have defended your "the pebble" that is on display.

[jonmac]

not a visitors side, it's the West side....

the Catamount Club has their seating on the West Side.

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/wcar/sports/m-footbl/auto_original/2174822.jpeg

Good grief, we've had this discussion, ad nauseum, about our stadium on the MMB. It is the side that the visiting team is on so it makes sense to call it the visitors' side. It's pretty silly to have your booster sitting behind the visiting team. But we all understand that because a person sits on the "visitor's side" does not they are pulling for the visitors.

[Aho_Old_Guy]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/image.php?u=9436&type=sigpic&dateline=1250273305

that's a pretty small pebble, I'd have expected a mountain bolder.

Thankfully (as your girl friend can surely attest) size does not matter. xsmiley_wix


And my recollection (which is always questionable) is that our good friends at the North Carolina Department of Transportation made the final decision as to the ultimate size of the rock at The Rock.

It was hauled from Grandfather Mountain down Hwy 105 and the NCDxnonoxT mandated a weight limit ....

[T-Dog]

Good grief, we've had this discussion, ad nauseum, about our stadium on the MMB. It is the side that the visiting team is on so it makes sense to call it the visitors' side. It's pretty silly to have your booster sitting behind the visiting team. But we all understand that because a person sits on the "visitor's side" does not they are pulling for the visitors.

Not to mention it's been rather humbling for App to have just as many people in the stands as Western did.

Heck, in 2006, I sat right on the 50 on the East Side in the 3rd row with a group of App fans and no one told us to move. There were about 20-30 boosters sitting in the West Side.

Glad to see the Whee still have spirit despite the last time they won in Boone was before "The Pebble" was "The Pebble".

EDIT: As for the original thread question, 14-1, NC #4.

[appfan2008]

I voted for 9 wins and no NC... although I sure wouldnt mind winning numero cuatro...

[ASUG8]

not a visitors side, it's the West side....

the Catamount Club has their seating on the West Side.

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/wcar/sports/m-footbl/auto_original/2174822.jpeg

Fine, call it what you will. It's the side with the visiting team sideline and the visitor's will call window according to your map. I was only attempting to give WCU credit for adding a substantial number of seats on the N/W/S/E/I don't care side of the field. xrulesx

[Black Saturday]

You will "loose" to more than ECU. Tough tough road schedule.

Care to name which road team? I'll bet you think FU? Right? Ya'll still have the same coach? Keep waiting, imo.

[The Moody1]

not a visitors side, it's the West side....

the Catamount Club has their seating on the West Side.

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/wcar/sports/m-footbl/auto_original/2174822.jpeg


The whole Catamount Club fits in one section? The Yosef Club takes up about half of the stadium. Rock vs Pebble?

http://www.goasu.com/ViewArticle.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=21500&ATCLID=1524545&SPID=12811&SPSID=104458

[The Cats]

Rock vs Pebble?


Just remember....the bigger the rock....er pebble, the harder the fall. xthumbsupx

[AppIAA]

Just remember....the bigger the rock....er pebble, the harder the fall. xthumbsupx

Looks like the "pebble" at WCU has fallen tremendously in recent years..

It may be the bigger the rock, the harder they fall, but it's definitely the smaller the pebble, the more they fall

[apppackdad]

WCU FOOTBALL, Irrelevance in search of mediocrity!xsmiley_wix

I would think that the 500 Cat fans who actually attend a game at Whitmire could sit pretty much anywhere they want.

[james_lawfirm]

WCU FOOTBALL, Irrelevance in search of mediocrity!xsmiley_wix

I would think that the 500 Cat fans who actually attend a game at Whitmire could sit pretty much anywhere they want.


That's not nice! You've done chased all the kittys away. Pity.