Playoff Prognostications - Preseason

[TexasTerror]

To further stir the pot some and really get people worked up with all the preseason polls - nationally and within conference - I present to you some EARLY, EARLY, EARLY playoff prognostications!

SEEDS
1. Appalachian State - SoCon Auto
2. Richmond - CAA Auto
3. Northern Iowa - MVFC Auto
4. Villanova - CAA/At-Large

REMAINING AUTOMATIC BIDS
Montana - Big Sky Auto
South Carolina State - MEAC Auto
Eastern Kentucky - OVC Auto
Colgate - Patriot Auto
Texas State - SLC Auto

AT-LARGES
Weber State - Big Sky At-Large
Delaware - CAA At-Large
McNeese State - SLC At-Large
Southern Illinois - MVFC At-Large
Wofford - SoCon At-Large
Elon - SoCon At-Large
Maine - CAA At-Large

BRACKET

Maine at 1 Appalachian State
Elon at Southern Illinois

Wofford at Delaware
Colgate at 4 Villanova

South Carolina State at 2 Richmond
Eastern Kentucky at Texas State

Weber State at 3 Northern Iowa
McNeese State at Montana

[darell1976]

To further stir the pot some and really get people worked up with all the preseason polls - nationally and within conference - I present to you some EARLY, EARLY, EARLY playoff prognostications!

SEEDS
1. Appalachian State - SoCon Auto
2. Richmond - CAA Auto
3. Northern Iowa - MVFC Auto
4. Villanova - CAA/At-Large

REMAINING AUTOMATIC BIDS
Montana - Big Sky Auto
South Carolina State - MEAC Auto
Eastern Kentucky - OVC Auto
Colgate - Patriot Auto
Texas State - SLC Auto

AT-LARGES
Weber State - Big Sky At-Large
Delaware - CAA At-Large
McNeese State - SLC At-Large
Southern Illinois - MVFC At-Large
Wofford - SoCon At-Large
Elon - SoCon At-Large
Maine - CAA At-Large

BRACKET

Maine at 1 Appalachian State
Elon at Southern Illinois

Wofford at Delaware
Colgate at 4 Villanova

South Carolina State at 2 Richmond
Eastern Kentucky at Texas State

Weber State at 3 Northern Iowa
McNeese State at Montana

No one from the Great West Conference???xconfusedx

[TexasTerror]

No one from the Great West Conference???xconfusedx

Cal Poly has two FBS games and a sub-Div I game. Get rid of those, they have eight chances to win seven games. Throw in road trips to MONTANA and WEBER STATE - I really seem them having a hard time still being eligible for seven wins.

Who else from the Great West should I consider once Cal Poly has been removed?

[NHwildEcat]

To further stir the pot some and really get people worked up with all the preseason polls - nationally and within conference - I present to you some EARLY, EARLY, EARLY playoff prognostications!

SEEDS
1. Appalachian State - SoCon Auto
2. Richmond - CAA Auto
3. Northern Iowa - MVFC Auto
4. Villanova - CAA/At-Large

REMAINING AUTOMATIC BIDS
Montana - Big Sky Auto
South Carolina State - MEAC Auto
Eastern Kentucky - OVC Auto
Colgate - Patriot Auto
Texas State - SLC Auto

AT-LARGES
Weber State - Big Sky At-Large
Delaware - CAA At-Large
McNeese State - SLC At-Large
Southern Illinois - MVFC At-Large
Wofford - SoCon At-Large
Elon - SoCon At-Large
Maine - CAA At-Large

BRACKET

Maine at 1 Appalachian State
Elon at Southern Illinois

Wofford at Delaware
Colgate at 4 Villanova

South Carolina State at 2 Richmond
Eastern Kentucky at Texas State

Weber State at 3 Northern Iowa
McNeese State at Montana

Where is New Hampshire?

[darell1976]

Cal Poly has two FBS games and a sub-Div I game. Get rid of those, they have eight chances to win seven games. Throw in road trips to MONTANA and WEBER STATE - I really seem them having a hard time still being eligible for seven wins.

Who else from the Great West should I consider once Cal Poly has been removed?

I thought either Poly or Davis.

[TexasTerror]

I thought either Poly or Davis.

UC-Davis has two FBS games (Fresno St, Boise State) plus a sub-Div I team. Host a tough Montana team and either them or Cal Poly have to win when that game is played. They are at home - but still, tough situation to get the seven wins.


Where is New Hampshire?

They have a very favorable schedule. They were the "next team out". I had to decide whether I wanted to put two Southland Conference teams in and just for bias sake, I did. Afterall, I am the first one to post a full playoff bracket. ;)

[darell1976]

When does the Great West get an auto-bid??

[NHwildEcat]

They have a very favorable schedule. They were the "next team out". I had to decide whether I wanted to put two Southland Conference teams in and just for bias sake, I did. Afterall, I am the first one to post a full playoff bracket. ;)

Fair enough...I think you have a fair representation from the CAA...except I would swap UNH in for Maine.

[TexasTerror]

Fair enough...I think you have a fair representation from the CAA...except I would swap UNH in for Maine.

With the game at New Hampshire - point taken. I think you may be right. Would you still think that the Wildcats would play at Appy?

[NHwildEcat]

With the game at New Hampshire - point taken. I think you may be right. Would you still think that the Wildcats would play at Appy?

No, probably not. I don't think UNH would be the "last" team in...I think they would be somewhere closer to the middle of the pack...really depends on how quickly the team gels...if it is early I think that 'Cats may have a shot at a home game in the first round...should be interesting.

[NHwildEcat]

As long as it isn't UNI again...anything else!

[daneboy]

The Great West won't get a bid until there are enough teams in the league to be eligible for an auto bid. They need at least one more...where will it come from? Actually, I think the real question is how long the Great West will even survive as a football conference? There are those that want Poly to move up to the FBS. The thinking seems to be that they will go to the WAC or the Mountain West. I don't think that will ever happen...The rest of Poly's sports seem to be right at home in the Big West.
Another thought has been that some of the Big West Schools may try to bring back a program. Fullerton has an active group trying, but with the economic times it probably won't happen. I also would have to wonder if these Big West schools would want to drop down to FCS after having been 1-A in the past. Pacific, Fullerton, Long Beach and UCSB have all dropped 1-A football. Riverside and Northridge dropped lower division programs. That just leaves only Davis and Poly still playing...
So, the question still remains, if the Big West stays in business as a football conference, where will the other team come from? Until then, the Big West will have to be content with an at-large berth...

[TexasTerror]

No, probably not. I don't think UNH would be the "last" team in...I think they would be somewhere closer to the middle of the pack...really depends on how quickly the team gels...if it is early I think that 'Cats may have a shot at a home game in the first round...should be interesting.

If some of the teams like TXST and Montana make the NCAA playoffs as a non-seeded team, it will be tough. Those schools have plenty of $$$ and knowing how poorly a good amount of the CAA schools (including UNH) draw, I am not sure they can compete financially for it.

[UAalum72]

When does the Great West get an auto-bid??
Not until it has at least six teams that have finished their transition to D-I who have played together for at least (two or five?) years.

Six teams is the minimum for an autobid for all conferences in all NCAA sports. The time together for 'core' members I think varies from sport to sport.

[89Hen]

BRACKET

Wofford at Delaware
Colgate at 4 Villanova
While I think UD is a long shot to make the playoffs, your bracket presents an interesting potential second round game at Nova. Hens/VU meet in the final week of the regular season at Nova... they may have to move that game to FF or the Linc. xsmiley_wix

[bostonspider]

For the CAA, I think you could easily put place in JMU for UD and UNH for Maine, and I think I would. I also think VU will win the Auto and UR the At-Large. I like Holy Cross instead of Colgate... The rest of your picks seem to make sense to me.

SEEDS
1. Appalachian State - SoCon Auto
2. Villanova - CAA Auto
3. Northern Iowa - MVFC Auto
4. Richmond - CAA/At-Large

REMAINING AUTOMATIC BIDS
Montana - Big Sky Auto
South Carolina State - MEAC Auto
Eastern Kentucky - OVC Auto
Holy Cross - Patriot Auto
Texas State - SLC Auto

AT-LARGES
Weber State - Big Sky At-Large
JMU - CAA At-Large
McNeese State - SLC At-Large
Southern Illinois - MVFC At-Large
Wofford - SoCon At-Large
Elon - SoCon At-Large
UNH - CAA At-Large

[NHwildEcat]

If some of the teams like TXST and Montana make the NCAA playoffs as a non-seeded team, it will be tough. Those schools have plenty of $$$ and knowing how poorly a good amount of the CAA schools (including UNH) draw, I am not sure they can compete financially for it.

Yeah this is true...But you never know!!! I know when UNH hosted UNI (in 2005 I believe) the stadium was pretty packed...and it was cold as hell that day!

It really comes down to me wanting to go to a home game in late November.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

If some of the teams like TXST and Montana make the NCAA playoffs as a non-seeded team, it will be tough. Those schools have plenty of $$$ and knowing how poorly a good amount of the CAA schools (including UNH) draw, I am not sure they can compete financially for it.

UNH actually draws about as well as it can in its antiquated digs. We've been over 100% capacity or darned near it the past few years. Only extreme weather games have had poor attendance. But you're spot on that UNH can't outbid any of the large capacity, high attendance schools. Nor can it compete with schools who can tap into other sources of monies. And even when things appear to be a level playing field, the game will get rewarded to the other school if they have a better press box and venue for TV.

Last year, I thought attendance wise we would outdraw SIU. Based on playoff games in 2005, we would have. But SIU's stadium, even as old as it is, was a much better venue for the press corps and television. Not sure though the atmosphere was any better at McAndrew Stadium than it would have been at a stuffed to the gills Cowell. And a member of this board (fan of another school) suggested to me after we won at SIU that if we beat UNI that we probably would get a home semi-final game if the opponent was Richmond. He based that opinion on attendance at both schools, especially UNH's well over capacity track record in 2005. But before the game at UNI was played, we had already learned that the game was going to be at Richmond. (Turned out to be a moot point.)

NHwildEcat, I think it is pretty clear that UNH is only getting home playoff games if they are seeded or playing one of the few schools they could outbid. For example, if last year Maine had upset UNI and played UNH in the Quarterfinals, I'd like to think we would have outbid Maine because we had a track record to allow our AD to make a more aggressive bid than Maine. But because of the crappy press facilities and TV camera vantage points, the NCAA might still have awarded that game to Maine. Don't underestimate how much ESPN despises Cowell after their 2005 experience.

Next year with the expanded playoff field, if UNH is playing on Thanksgiving weekend, they'd probably get the home game against any NEC team (until CCSU installs stands on the away side). If they're one of the top eight seeded teams, they have a shot at a home game in the next round against some teams.

But quite frankly, without a top four seed, we won't be seeing many playoff games at Cowell. The chance of significant snow and cold added to the crappy press facilities don't give UNH much of a chance even with an equal bid.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

With the game at New Hampshire - point taken. I think you may be right. Would you still think that the Wildcats would play at Appy?

Based on App being a seed, I believe they'd get South Carolina State just like they did last year. And I believe that JMU and Eastern KY are within 400 miles of App. Based on the guidelines, I believe any of those schools would go to App before Maine or UNH. In your group of 16 teams, I'd say Maine/UNH would be going to SIU, UNI, Montana, Weber State or McNeese State. They'd fall into that "as long as they're flying what difference does it make where we send them" category. xlolx

Because I'm most likely going to be in Florida, I'd be hoping for Wofford, Elon or McNeese for selfish reasons. xwhistlex :p

One other thing for anyone picking Maine, don't forget they have a D-II on their schedule this year. They may need to go 9-2 this year to make the playoffs.

[g-webb1994]

I'm not drinking the Elon kool-aid. The SOCON will be lucky to get three teams in. I'm still thinking Liberty goes 9-2 or 10-1 and gets in and draws either Appy or Richmond in round one.

[UNHWildCats]

With the game at New Hampshire - point taken. I think you may be right. Would you still think that the Wildcats would play at Appy?
i dont because I think UNH will be a seed this season after going 10-1 :D

[UNHWildCats]

Yeah this is true...But you never know!!! I know when UNH hosted UNI (in 2005 I believe) the stadium was pretty packed...and it was cold as hell that day!

It really comes down to me wanting to go to a home game in late November.
the only way UNH is going to host is if they are a seeded team, which they have the potential to be this season.

[Redwyn]

No one from the Great West Conference???xconfusedx

You seem to have really put a ton of effort into this. What was your thinking regarding Big South? No autobid, but likely that one of the contending teams (there're 3-4 depending upon who you ask) will walk out with a pretty strong record...

[TexasTerror]

Big South.

No auto-bid.
Inconsistency in GPI.
Too many quality at-large bids elsewhere and too much needed to happen from Big South to make it.

SWAC teams eligible, Pioneer and NEC was never on the table. Big South was.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

UNH actually draws about as well as it can in its antiquated digs. We've been over 100% capacity or darned near it the past few years. Only extreme weather games have had poor attendance. But you're spot on that UNH can't outbid any of the large capacity, high attendance schools. Nor can it compete with schools who can tap into other sources of monies. And even when things appear to be a level playing field, the game will get rewarded to the other school if they have a better press box and venue for TV.

Last year, I thought attendance wise we would outdraw SIU. Based on playoff games in 2005, we would have. But SIU's stadium, even as old as it is, was a much better venue for the press corps and television. Not sure though the atmosphere was any better at McAndrew Stadium than it would have been at a stuffed to the gills Cowell. And a member of this board (fan of another school) suggested to me after we won at SIU that if we beat UNI that we probably would get a home semi-final game if the opponent was Richmond. He based that opinion on attendance at both schools, especially UNH's well over capacity track record in 2005. But before the game at UNI was played, we had already learned that the game was going to be at Richmond. (Turned out to be a moot point.)

NHwildEcat, I think it is pretty clear that UNH is only getting home playoff games if they are seeded or playing one of the few schools they could outbid. For example, if last year Maine had upset UNI and played UNH in the Quarterfinals, I'd like to think we would have outbid Maine because we had a track record to allow our AD to make a more aggressive bid than Maine. But because of the crappy press facilities and TV camera vantage points, the NCAA might still have awarded that game to Maine. Don't underestimate how much ESPN despises Cowell after their 2005 experience.

Next year with the expanded playoff field, if UNH is playing on Thanksgiving weekend, they'd probably get the home game against any NEC team (until CCSU installs stands on the away side). If they're one of the top eight seeded teams, they have a shot at a home game in the next round against some teams.

But quite frankly, without a top four seed, we won't be seeing many playoff games at Cowell. The chance of significant snow and cold added to the crappy press facilities don't give UNH much of a chance even with an equal bid.

Spot on analysis. Virtually a lock that UNH plays on the road unless the 'Cats finish with a Top 4 seed.

[Big Dawg]

Here we go...more SCSU love...xrolleyesx

[Keeper]

I'm forecasting Hofstra to make it ahead of NH or Maine.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I'm not drinking the Elon kool-aid. The SOCON will be lucky to get three teams in. I'm still thinking Liberty goes 9-2 or 10-1 and gets in and draws either Appy or Richmond in round one.

Unless the SoCon has a mammoth year against the FBS (they could, but it isn't certain) we will be lucky to get two in.

The CAA might get six in this year.

[Redwyn]

I'm forecasting Hofstra to make it ahead of NH or Maine.

A good test of that will def come on Sept 5th vs. Stony Brook. Hofstra rarely loses an Island rivalry game. An upset would certainly say something about this team.

[Bam]

I see EKU going to Richmond VA again?

[darell1976]

The Great West won't get a bid until there are enough teams in the league to be eligible for an auto bid. They need at least one more...where will it come from? Actually, I think the real question is how long the Great West will even survive as a football conference? There are those that want Poly to move up to the FBS. The thinking seems to be that they will go to the WAC or the Mountain West. I don't think that will ever happen...The rest of Poly's sports seem to be right at home in the Big West.
Another thought has been that some of the Big West Schools may try to bring back a program. Fullerton has an active group trying, but with the economic times it probably won't happen. I also would have to wonder if these Big West schools would want to drop down to FCS after having been 1-A in the past. Pacific, Fullerton, Long Beach and UCSB have all dropped 1-A football. Riverside and Northridge dropped lower division programs. That just leaves only Davis and Poly still playing...
So, the question still remains, if the Big West stays in business as a football conference, where will the other team come from? Until then, the Big West will have to be content with an at-large berth...

And with UND and USD moving to the Summitt, and possibly the MVFC unless the Summitt goes with football the GWFC would be down to 3 teams and if Poly goes to the FBS that leaves Davis, and SUU. Maybe the GWFC is on life support.

[Bull Fan]

A good test of that will def come on Sept 5th vs. Stony Brook. Hofstra rarely loses an Island rivalry game. An upset would certainly say something about this team.

Astonishing. Simply astonishing. This is about the most inaccurate statement I've seen in awhile. The only rival at this point on the Island is SBU, and that hasn't happened in such a long time as to be relevant. Hell, I tried to look it up and couldn't find it unless I try to download the HU media guide. What makes you think THIS will be the litmus test for the Dutch in '09? I'm not going out on a shaky limb in saying this will be another walk-over win for Hofstra, and I'm not prone to such remarks.

More relevant is their conference schedule and how they rebound from an injury-riddled 2008 season. FWIW, not many Hofstra fans are expecting much; a 6-5 or 7-4 season can be considered an average prognostication among the faithful. We have just too much to rebound from with little carryover from last year to have such a strong feeling one way or another. We have hope, but we're not expecting playoffs at this point. Talk to us once we get into the meat of the CAA schedule...

[BDKJMU]

To further stir the pot some and really get people worked up with all the preseason polls - nationally and within conference - I present to you some EARLY, EARLY, EARLY playoff prognostications!

SEEDS
1. Appalachian State - SoCon Auto
2. Richmond - CAA Auto
3. Northern Iowa - MVFC Auto
4. Villanova - CAA/At-Large

REMAINING AUTOMATIC BIDS
Montana - Big Sky Auto
South Carolina State - MEAC Auto
Eastern Kentucky - OVC Auto
Colgate - Patriot Auto
Texas State - SLC Auto

AT-LARGES
Weber State - Big Sky At-Large
Delaware - CAA At-Large
McNeese State - SLC At-Large
Southern Illinois - MVFC At-Large
Wofford - SoCon At-Large
Elon - SoCon At-Large
Maine - CAA At-Large

BRACKET

Maine at 1 Appalachian State
Elon at Southern Illinois

Wofford at Delaware
Colgate at 4 Villanova

South Carolina State at 2 Richmond
Eastern Kentucky at Texas State

Weber State at 3 Northern Iowa
McNeese State at Montana

UD and Maine from the CAA and no JMU or UNH. Yeah, rightxrolleyesx

[BDKJMU]

I'm not drinking the Elon kool-aid. The SOCON will be lucky to get three teams in. I'm still thinking Liberty goes 9-2 or 10-1 and gets in and draws either Appy or Richmond in round one.

With only 9 starters back?

[BDKJMU]

Unless the SoCon has a mammoth year against the FBS (they could, but it isn't certain) we will be lucky to get two in.

The CAA might get six in this year.

I think the So-Con will get 3. And I've gone over the So-Con teams schedules. Appy at 9-2/7-1 and I think 2 out of the 5 will go 8-3/6-2 or 7-4/6-2 (Wofford and FU each playing 2 I-As):
GSU, Elon, Samford, FU and Wofford

Not a snowball's chance in hell the CAA gets 6. I think it will be 4.

[Tribe4SF]

I think the So-Con will get 3. And I've gone over the So-Con teams schedules. Appy at 9-2/7-1 and I think 2 out of the 5 will go 8-3/6-2 or 7-4/6-2 (Wofford and FU each playing 2 I-As):
GSU, Elon, Samford, FU and Wofford

Not a snowball's chance in hell the CAA gets 6. I think it will be 4.

How many the CAA gets depends on how many teams from other leagues get 8 D-I wins with decent strength of schedule. If there aren't many of those, then the CAA could get 5 again. A seven win JMU, W&M, Maine, Hofstra or UMass will again stack up well against the competition. UD won't get in with seven wins because of West Chester.

[PaladinFan]

I think the So-Con will get 3. And I've gone over the So-Con teams schedules. Appy at 9-2/7-1 and I think 2 out of the 5 will go 8-3/6-2 or 7-4/6-2 (Wofford and FU each playing 2 I-As):
GSU, Elon, Samford, FU and Wofford

Not a snowball's chance in hell the CAA gets 6. I think it will be 4.

Probably about right. The question is would you let in a team like, for example, Furman who may be 7-4 (6-2) with losses to App, Wofford, Auburn, and Missouri?

[BDKJMU]

Probably about right. The question is would you let in a team like, for example, Furman who may be 7-4 (6-2) with losses to App, Wofford, Auburn, and Missouri?

If it came down to a 7-4/6-2 FU and an
1. 8-3, 8 Div I win team from the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with a I-A loss probably no
2. 8-3, 8 Div I win team from other than the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with a I-A loss, maybe.
2. 8-3, 7 Div I win team from the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with a I-A loss, maybe.
3. 8-3, 7 Div I win team from the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with no I-A opponent, yes.(Montana is the only contender I know of who has no I-A and a Div II).
4. 8-3/6-2 (or in the case of Wofford 7-4/6-2) from the So-Con, it would come down to head to head

-All of the CAA contenders play a I-A, and UD is the only one who plays a Div II.
-In the MVFC UNI, SIU, and SDSU, all have a I-A, only SIU plays a Div II
-In the Big Sky, Weber has 2 I-As and no Div II. Again, Montana has no I-A and a Div II.

The bootm line for FU is 7-4/6-2 sounds like a big MAYBE for the playoffs, where if it was 8-3/6-2 it would be HIGHLY likely. Thats where that 2nd I-A game could hurt them....xcoffeex
https://goomer.ncaa.org/reports/rwservlet?hidden_run_parameters=p_mfb_complete_sch edule&pn_acadyr=2009&pv_division=1&pv_subdivision=2

[PaladinFan]

If it came down to a 7-4/6-2 FU and an
1. 8-3, 8 Div I win team from the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with a I-A loss probably no
2. 8-3, 8 Div I win team from other than the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with a I-A loss, maybe.
2. 8-3, 7 Div I win team from the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with a I-A loss, maybe.
3. 8-3, 7 Div I win team from the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky with no I-A opponent, yes.(Montana is the only contender I know of who has no I-A and a Div II).
4. 8-3/6-2 (or in the case of Wofford 7-4/6-2) from the So-Con, it would come down to head to head

-All of the CAA contenders play a I-A, and UD is the only one who plays a Div II.
-In the MVFC UNI, SIU, and SDSU, all have a I-A, only SIU plays a Div II
-In the Big Sky, Weber has 2 I-As and no Div II. Again, Montana has no I-A and a Div II.

The bootm line for FU is 7-4/6-2 sounds like a big MAYBE for the playoffs, where if it was 8-3/6-2 it would be HIGHLY likely. Thats where that 2nd I-A game could hurt them....xcoffeex
https://goomer.ncaa.org/reports/rwservlet?hidden_run_parameters=p_mfb_complete_sch edule&pn_acadyr=2009&pv_division=1&pv_subdivision=2

Which is sad. An 8-3 team with just one less conference loss would be seeded, not just participating.

I mean, SoCon teams know what it takes to get there. They've seen year in, year out that getting three teams in is rare and four is virutally never going to happen. It's tougher right now because App State was, over the past couple years, the most dominate team this level of football has seen, so you go into each season saying "man, I hope we can get second."

[IaaScribe]

You seem to have really put a ton of effort into this. What was your thinking regarding Big South? No autobid, but likely that one of the contending teams (there're 3-4 depending upon who you ask) will walk out with a pretty strong record...

I think the Big South champion will have an 8-3 overall record at best. 7-4 is more likely. For the first time in a while, there's a lot of parity at the top. I could see a scenario where the top four -- Liberty, Stony Brook, Gardner-Webb and Coastal -- go 2-2 against each other ... VMI and CSU very capable of pulling off wins too.

The Big South champ will have to go 10-1 to get a playoff sniff. No team in the league is capable of that this year.

[GannonFan]

UD won't get in with seven wins because of West Chester.

Well, we could lose to West Chester and still get 7 wins and could get in that way! xlolx It has happened before (last two times we lost to West Chester we made the playoffs).

[BDKJMU]

Which is sad. An 8-3 team with just one less conference loss would be seeded, not just participating.

I mean, SoCon teams know what it takes to get there. They've seen year in, year out that getting three teams in is rare and four is virutally never going to happen. It's tougher right now because App State was, over the past couple years, the most dominate team this level of football has seen, so you go into each season saying "man, I hope we can get second."

Its your ADs fault. You had @ UD scheduled, at least a 50% chance of winning game. You traded that for @ Mizzou, maybe a 5% chance of winning game. On the one hand I hope if FU goes 7-4/6-2 they get in. On the other hand I won't have much sympathy if they had that record and didn't get in, as FU would have screwed themselves. The moral of the story would be don't schedule 2 I-A games when 90+% of the other teams aren't. xcoffeex

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Maine also has a D-II (St. Cloud State) so they'll be in the same boat as Delaware. An 8-3 Maine or Delaware is really 7-3 in the committee's eyes (assuming of course they beat St. Cloud and West Chester). There will have to be a shortage of eight D-I win teams for them to be selected at 8-3.

SIU with SW Baptist is also in this same boat. I'm sure there are others.

[RabidRabbit]

Maine also has a D-II (St. Cloud State) so they'll be in the same boat as Delaware. An 8-3 Maine or Delaware is really 7-3 in the committee's eyes (assuming of course they beat St. Cloud and West Chester). There will have to be a shortage of eight D-I win teams for them to be selected at 8-3.

SIU with SW Baptist is also in this same boat. I'm sure there are others.

IMHO, SIU with a D-II, and an FBS, is just about assure of needing to win the MoValley auto-bid. A 6-2 MVFC record for the Salukis, plus a FBS loss could see them home for the play-offs. Have to like SDSU's chances if they win their OOC FCS games, and end up with only two MVFC losses. NDSU has very winnable OOC FCS games this season, and only one FBS game.

[PaladinFan]

Its your ADs fault. You had @ UD scheduled, at least a 50% chance of winning game. You traded that for @ Mizzou, maybe a 5% chance of winning game. On the one hand I hope if FU goes 7-4/6-2 they get in. On the other hand I won't have much sympathy if they had that record and didn't get in, as FU would have screwed themselves. The moral of the story would be don't schedule 2 I-A games when 90+% of the other teams aren't. xcoffeex

App State was a #2 overall seed and went on to win the national championship with two blowout losses to FBS teams. If Furman takes care of their SoCon business they'll be fine.

And for what its worth, I still think Furman will beat either Missou or Auburn. Even if we don't make the playoffs, you'll have a hard time convincing me that a 7-4 Furman team is less deserving than an 8-3 team with a win over some Mid-Atlantic DII school.

[BDKJMU]

App State was a #2 overall seed and went on to win the national championship with two blowout losses to FBS teams. If Furman takes care of their SoCon business they'll be fine.

And for what its worth, I still think Furman will beat either Missou or Auburn. Even if we don't make the playoffs, you'll have a hard time convincing me that a 7-4 Furman team is less deserving than an 8-3 team with a win over some Mid-Atlantic DII school.

Thing is the majority of the contenders aren't playing DIIs anymore.

[GannonFan]

Maine also has a D-II (St. Cloud State) so they'll be in the same boat as Delaware. An 8-3 Maine or Delaware is really 7-3 in the committee's eyes (assuming of course they beat St. Cloud and West Chester). There will have to be a shortage of eight D-I win teams for them to be selected at 8-3.

SIU with SW Baptist is also in this same boat. I'm sure there are others.

An 8-3 Delaware team has never missed the playoffs and considering who many of the 8 wins would come against, and the attraction of UD in the playoffs, it's unlikely that UD would miss the playoffs this year at 8-3. Now UD goes 7-4, they don't make the playoffs, but I'm not in the least bit worried about 8-3.