Semi-final picks

[dirtbag]

ASU 31, Furman 17
UNI 34, TxSt 30

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

ASU and UNI

[crunifan]

Appalachain State
UNI

[youwouldno]

Furman and Texas State.

[JSU Fan]

UNI & ASU.

Out.

[bcrawf]

UNI and ASU

Somebody that doesn't have a national title will finally get one. This is UNI's 6th trip to the semis, it is time to break through!!! :nod:

[ASU Kep]

ASU and Texas St. move on to the big one. Games decided by a combined total of two points.

[Cocky]

Furman and Texas State

[blur2005]

Alright, I'm going to try to better than one out of four last week, and go with ASU over Furman in a rematch and UNI continuing their JMU-like run and pull out a very close one at Texas State.

[TxSt02]

App State and Texas State...

looking forward to the rematch!

[Grizo406]

I like Texas State because of their fans, and I've yet to see a classier group of people that could give the McNesses faithful fans a run for their money in this department.

Both fan bases have made their school, and football programs look good, IMO.

But I also like UNI, and I'm thinkin' UNI/ASU for all the marbles.

[pt_prodigy]

Texas State and ASU

[PantherMan]

ASU and UNI in Chattanooga. I've been holding my breath the last 6 weeks on the Panthers, and they just "find a way". Whether they are the better team on the field or not, they get the job done. ASU just because they have been playing great football. :hurray:

ASU 34
Furman 28

UNI 31
TXSU 21

[Dallas Demon]

App. St. and TxST.

[FU97]

Glad to see everyone's picking against Furman. The vast majority have picked against us lately. We like the role of the underdog. Somewhat unusual to meet a team in the playoffs that you already have beaten, yet still be prohibitive underdogs. I like it!

[ChickenMan]

Glad to see everyone's picking against Furman. The vast majority have picked against us lately. We like the role of the underdog. Somewhat unusual to meet a team in the playoffs that you already have beaten, yet still be prohibitive underdogs. I like it!

I have to go with ASU as well... rematches in the playoffs usually have favored the loser of the first game. Add in playing that 'revenge' game on the road and you have a very tough proposition. If the situation was reversed... I'd take Furman.

I also like Texas St over UNI.

[AppGuy04]

I had UNH v Texas St, so I'll go with Texas St since UNH is out, fast QB in a dome, look out

And ofcourse my homer pick, ASU

NC: Texas St. v ASU

We will have a first time winner for the NC this year

[ChickenMan]

We will have a first time winner for the NC this year

the fourth year in a row... parity has arrived in I-AA

[AppGuy04]

the fourth year in a row... parity has arrived in I-AA

GSU :rolleyes:

[FU97]

I had UNH v Texas St, so I'll go with Texas St since UNH is out, fast QB in a dome, look out

And ofcourse my homer pick, ASU

NC: Texas St. v ASU

We will have a first time winner for the NC this year

Texas State is hosting so the "fast guy" won't be in a dome.

[AppGuy04]

Texas State is hosting so the "fast guy" won't be in a dome.

damn, I wanted to see the dome

been gone all weekend, so haven't seen who was hosting that one, should have guessed Texas St got it b/c of the seed, but oh well

[FU97]

I have to go with ASU as well... rematches in the playoffs usually have favored the loser of the first game. Add in playing that 'revenge' game on the road and you have a very tough proposition. If the situation was reversed... I'd take Furman.

I also like Texas St over UNI.

Hisory doesn't always repeat itself. Take for example UNI's historical performance outside the dome in cold weather. Everyone said they would lose becasue they always lose. They didn't lose.......

[AppGuy04]

Hisory doesn't always repeat itself. Take for example UNI's historical performance outside the dome in cold weather. Everyone said they would lose becasue they always lose. They didn't lose.......

they jumped on UNH and the Wildcats haven't had many close games, I think that hurt them

[newsbreaker]

Hisory doesn't always repeat itself. Take for example UNI's historical performance outside the dome in cold weather. Everyone said they would lose becasue they always lose. They didn't lose.......


IMHO, the 'dome' thing is way overblown, at least in UNI's case. They still play in a midwestern conference, where cold weather isn't uncommon, and where every other team (ie, every road game) is played outdoors. UNI practices outside as well, so it's not a team that isn't used to adverse weather.

[AppGuy04]

IMHO, the 'dome' thing is way overblown, at least in UNI's case. They still play in a midwestern conference, where cold weather isn't uncommon, and where every other team (ie, every road game) is played outdoors. UNI practices outside as well, so it's not a team that isn't used to adverse weather.

why practice outside and play in a dome, that makes no sense to me

[OL FU]

they jumped on UNH and the Wildcats haven't had many close games, I think that hurt them

ASU hasn't had many close ones either. Just one that I fondly remember :D

[AppGuy04]

ASU hasn't had many close ones either. Just one that I fondly remember :D

well, we all know this one will be

SLUGFEST

[bcrawf]

The practice outside in weeks where they are on the road and we have just improved our outdoor facilities.

As Mark Farley Said: "The Dome is not the building, it is the people inside that make the difference. We bring the Dome with us wherever we go. This team is SPECIAL!!"

[dirtbag]

Glad to see everyone's picking against Furman. The vast majority have picked against us lately.

:eyebrow:

What the heck are you talking about?

Almost nobody thought Nicholls would beat Furman.

I think most people on this board thought Furman would beat Richmond, and that having the game in Richmond was a screw job.

[thirdgendin]

:eyebrow:

What the heck are you talking about?

Almost nobody thought Nicholls would beat Furman.

I think most people on this board thought Furman would beat Richmond, and that having the game in Richmond was a screw job.

Not according to the prediction threads.

[fuEMO]

:eyebrow:

What the heck are you talking about?

Almost nobody thought Nicholls would beat Furman.

I think most people on this board thought Furman would beat Richmond, and that having the game in Richmond was a screw job.

duh… If I remember right most of the A10 faithful had Furman going down and not much love from this board. We don't need it. Also hoping Matt goes with what I'm sure we will be hearing from APP fans a double-digit loss by Furman.

APP is a great team, but so is Furman. If any team can beat APP in Boone its the Paladins. Should be a barnburner. Maybe that's how we will all keep warm. I must be a sadist but I'm glad this game is in Boone. Since the GSU game the Paladins look looser and more like a focused team on the road. Furman is playing for a championship and to win in Nooga, you have to play through some adversity. I like the fact that we are playing on the road. APP has been sitting all comfy in Boone.

So I'm going with TxSt vs a SoCon team :D

[fuEMO]

duh… If I remember right most of the A10 faithful had Furman going down and not much love from this board. We don't need it. Also hoping Matt goes with what I'm sure we will be hearing from APP fans a double-digit loss by Furman.

APP is a great team, but so is Furman. If any team can beat APP in Boone its the Paladins. Should be a barnburner. Maybe that's how we will all keep warm. I must be a sadist but I'm glad this game is in Boone. Since the GSU game the Paladins look looser and more like a focused team on the road. Furman is playing for a championship and to win in Nooga, you have to play through some adversity. I like the fact that we are playing on the road. APP has been sitting all comfy in Boone.

So I'm going with TxSt vs a SoCon team :D

[Saint3333]

ASU came out flat at Furman earlier in the year. I don't think that will happen Saturday. I hope ASU wins the toss, if so they will take the ball first and never look back. Both teams score in the 30's, but ASU scores just a few more.

UNI vs. ASU in nooga.

[Ivytalk]

ASU came out flat at Furman earlier in the year. I don't think that will happen Saturday. I hope ASU wins the toss, if so they will take the ball first and never look back. Both teams score in the 30's, but ASU scores just a few more.

UNI vs. ASU in nooga.

Agreed.

[FU97]

ASU came out flat at Furman earlier in the year. I don't think that will happen Saturday. I hope ASU wins the toss, if so they will take the ball first and never look back. Both teams score in the 30's, but ASU scores just a few more.

UNI vs. ASU in nooga.

Winner of turnover battle wins this game.

[Saint3333]

I agree, and that gives the edge to ASU.

Furman turned the ball over 19 times in 11 regular season games, while ASU forced 19 turnovers in 11 regular season games. Come on Martin throw a couple to Corey Lynch.

[igo4uni]

damn, I wanted to see the dome



Click on this link and take the virtual tour:

The Fabulous UNI-Dome (http://www.vpaf.uni.edu/unidome/home.asp)

[HiHiYikas]

Glad to see everyone's picking against Furman. . .We like the role of the underdog

Typically, fans who like playing the underdog role don't get so indignant about being unseeded and playing on the road in round 2.

Live by the squeaker, die by the squeaker. . .ASU wins a close one at the Rock.

As for the TSU/UNI matchup, well, this is totally a coinflip. . .UNI.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=984&stc=1

[AppStateMan]

ASU
UNI

[windwalker]

ASU in another close one..

UNI in a squeaker...

Both should be great games.

[FU97]

I agree, and that gives the edge to ASU.

Furman turned the ball over 19 times in 11 regular season games, while ASU forced 19 turnovers in 11 regular season games. Come on Martin throw a couple to Corey Lynch.

Interestingly the only game we didn't turn it over was the Appy game. I wouldn't necessarily give the edge to either team on the turnovers going in. The key will be who wins it during the game.

[FU97]

Live by the squeaker, die by the squeaker. . .


I'd rather have experience in close games than not have it.

[HiHiYikas]

I'd rather have experience in close games than not have it.

Oh, definitely. A lot of teams have put together wonderful seasons by being ever-so-slightly better than their opponents on game day. That's all it takes. Those teams are a blast to watch and can create a lot of excitement. And the close-game experience is invaluable to the players.

But, just as the 2003 Panthers' Super Bowl XXXVIII run ended in a 3-point loss, a lot of those 'close-game' teams suffer season-ending heartbreakers decided by less than a touchdown.

I happen to think Furman's season-ending heartbreaker will occur this Saturday in Boone. It will be an awful loss for either team.

[Brent]

App. State

Texas State

Great Championship match-up.

Lots of NFL scouts will be watching this game if it happens.

[AppGuy04]

Click on this link and take the virtual tour:

The Fabulous UNI-Dome (http://www.vpaf.uni.edu/unidome/home.asp)

thanks man

[nick9c]

I'm picking Texas State over UNI. As much as I'd like to see UNI in the final, I think TX St. prevails.

And of course, a homer pick - FU over App State. As much as everyone sees this as a revenge game for App State, it is equally a revenge game for Furman, as we've not won in Boone for a few years...I know Coach Lamb wants that monkey off his back for sure. Furman in a nailbiter.

[Rick C]

Furman turned the ball over 19 times in 11 regular season games, while ASU forced 19 turnovers in 11 regular season games. Come on Martin throw a couple to Corey Lynch.

Furman is actually doing better than usual with offensive turnovers. They've averaged 2 a game this year (which is slightly better than the average over the previous 4 years); and over the past 9 games have averaged about 1.4 per game.

The big problem has been takeaways. Furman has only averaged slightly over 1 takeaway per game. Over the past eight games they have had only 6 takeaways, and 5 of those 6 were in two of the eight games. Also, most takeaways have been interceptions. For whatever reason, they've recovered very few fumbles this year.

[AppStateSVX]

I pick ASU and FU in the finals, the officials will realize that ASU and FU are the best, and will therefore, advance both to Nooga........

haha, anyways - ASU and UNI in the finals, FU could easily be there though

[tralfangar]

UNI and ASU

[selurfesoy]

AppStateMan,

Where did you get the awesome pic?

[JohnStOnge]

The most probable single pair for the finals is App State and Texas State. But that's only 0.38 by the way I do it. So the odds are better than even that one or the other will lose. Here's what I'd estimate as the probabilities of each pair for the finals:

App State vs. Texas State: 0.384
App State vs. Uni: 0.256
Furman vs. Texas State: 0.216
Furman vs. UNI: 0.144

All reasonably realistic possibilities. Ain't it great?

[Rick C]

The most probable single pair for the finals is App State and Texas State. But that's only 0.38 by the way I do it. So the odds are better than even that one or the other will lose. Here's what I'd estimate as the probabilities of each pair for the finals:

App State vs. Texas State: 0.384
App State vs. Uni: 0.256
Furman vs. Texas State: 0.216
Furman vs. UNI: 0.144

All reasonably realistic possibilities. Ain't it great?

John, do you base this on the Sagarin power ratings? If so, how would this compare if you used a non-MOV rating like Sagarin-Elo or Massey BCS?

[JohnStOnge]

John, do you base this on the Sagarin power ratings? If so, how would this compare if you used a non-MOV rating like Sagarin-Elo or Massey BCS?

Yes, I use Sagarin's ratings. But I couldn't do it using a non Margin-of-victory rating because I base it on how well Sagarin's system performs in anticipating margin of victory. If the favorite is favored by 6, for example, I'm looking at an estimate of how often Sagarin's system can be expected to be off by -6 or more on its prediction of the spread.

Plus I wouldn't want to use systems that don't use MOV anyway because they're not as good at prediction.

I'd use Massey's regular system because Ralph likes that better but you get essentially the same results and it's a lot more trouble to figure out what the predicted margin of victory is. Plus Massey says his system isn't intended for prediction.

[Kalesi]

I like Furman in this one. ASU hasn't played a tough team in a long while, they've coasted thus far in the playoffs. Easy games usually comes back to bite good teams.

If Furman comes out with the same defensive scheme they used to handle Stacy Tutt, then Furman will take this game.

I still don't see how a team with a better record is playing a team they have already beaten and is still an under dog. I smiled when I knew we were going back to Boone. I feel good about our chances in this one.



As for the finals, I would like to see Furman v. Texas State if just to see a team representing a school of 2,600 students play a team representing 27,000.

[ASUMountaineer]

I like Furman in this one. ASU hasn't played a tough team in a long while, they've coasted thus far in the playoffs. Easy games usually comes back to bite good teams.

If Furman comes out with the same defensive scheme they used to handle Stacy Tutt, then Furman will take this game.

I still don't see how a team with a better record is playing a team they have already beaten and is still an under dog. I smiled when I knew we were going back to Boone. I feel good about our chances in this one.



As for the finals, I would like to see Furman v. Texas State if just to see a team representing a school of 2,600 students play a team representing 27,000.
We have won easy games thus far, but it hasn't hurt USC or Texas in I-A. Also, I think there's a slight difference between Stacy Tutt and Richie Williams.

Why is Furman the underdog:
ASU = Toughest I-AA schedule
ASU = Only one I-AA loss this season (even with it being to you guys--#3 Furman)
ASU = 17-game home winning streak
Furman = 2 I-AA losses, including to Western Carolina by 20

Nevertheless, this game is going to go down to the wire. Glad I've already got my tickets! Anyone who says Appalachian will win by double digits is either Nostradamus or crazy. I see the App St. defense having to come up big and stop Furman on a 4th down play to end the game.

This game is too close to call, but all biases included:
App St. vs. Texas St. in Chatty.

Go MOUNTAINEERS!

[Chi Panther]

We have won easy games thus far, but it hasn't hurt USC or Texas in I-A. Also, I think there's a slight difference between Stacy Tutt and Richie Williams.

Why is Furman the underdog:
ASU = Toughest I-AA schedule
ASU = Only one I-AA loss this season (even with it being to you guys--#3 Furman)
ASU = 17-game home winning streak
Furman = 2 I-AA losses, including to Western Carolina by 20

Nevertheless, this game is going to go down to the wire. Glad I've already got my tickets! Anyone who says Appalachian will win by double digits is either Nostradamus or crazy. I see the App St. defense having to coming up big and stopping Furman on a 4th down play to end the game.

This game is too close to call, but all biases included:
App St. vs. Texas St. in Chatty.

Go MOUNTAINEERS!

The Mountaineers are favored because the game is in Boone....Period!

[bcrawf]

App St. 27
Furman 19

UNI 28
TSU 24

Two great games in big full loud stadiums. This will be a great weekend for I-AA in the exposure department. Hopefully we can get some people to catch on and tune in again for the Title Game!!! :hurray:

[ASUMountaineer]

The Mountaineers are favored because the game is in Boone....Period!
You're right, but just trying to legitimize. Also trying to figure out, if FU fans are so confident, why they're so defensive about being the underdog.

[Chi Panther]

You're right, but just trying to legitimize. Also trying to figure out, if FU fans are so confident, why they're so defensive about being the underdog.

I didn't intend for that to seem like I was singling you out.....17 home game winning streak is impressive..... :hurray:

[ASUMountaineer]

I didn't intend for that to seem like I was singling you out.....17 home game winning streak is impressive..... :hurray:
Nah, it's all good. The UNI-Dome looks like the Mini-Dome at ETSU, except better.

[FargoBison]

App State-31
Furman-21

Texas St-24
UNI-28

[FU5454]

Nah, it's all good. The UNI-Dome looks like the Mini-Dome at ETSU, except better.

Could anything actually be worse than playing in that Quonset Hut in Johnson City?