2008 TOP 25 COMPARISON THREAD

[smallcollegefbfan]

Guys,

I came up with the idea to actually crunch the numbers and come up with a mathematical way to decide the top preseason top 25 list from last year.

Here are the categories I have come up with. Let me know if you think I should add one or delete one.

Top 25 Correct
Top 10 Correct
NC Correct (nobody got it right so I threw that out because nobody got a ranking)
Preseason rank of the final #1 team
The finish of the preseason #1 team

Here are the preseason lists I used in this comparison
AGS
Coaches
Lindy's
Phil Steele
Sporting News
TSN

What I did was rank everyone on how close they were and many times there was a tie so I still gave say all 4 teams the points for 2nd place if there was a 4-way tie for 2nd and so forth.

Also, I based how each list did based on the final GPI.

Should I add anymore categories or preseason top 25 lists? Would you rather me use something other than the GPI? I know SE, TT, myself, and many others agree that the GPI is the best one to go by at the end of the year because it uses all of the rankings.

I have already crunched the numbers and have the tally but wanted to make sure no one objected to my criteria before I post this.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Here are the preseason polls and rankings I used so everyone else can see what I used in the numbers.

TSN
1. Appalachian State (97) 2,546
2. North Dakota State (1) 2,275
3. Northern Iowa 2,204
4. Richmond 2,162
5. Massachusetts 2,148
6. James Madison (3) 2,078
7. Eastern Washington 1,951
8. Montana Grizzlies 1,848
9. Delaware Blue Hens 1,747
10. McNeese State 1,687
11. Southern Illinois 1,286
12. Youngstown State 1,228
13. Wofford 1,158
14. Cal Poly 1,081
15. Elon 1,028
16. New Hampshire 760
17. Georgia Southern 656
18. Eastern Illinois 622
19. South Dakota State 547
20. Eastern Kentucky 487
21. Villanova 396
22. Central Arkansas 374
23. The Citadel 317
24. Harvard 316
25. Western Illinois 299

Coaches
1. Appalachian State (24) 600
2. North Dakota State 527
3. James Madison 513
4. Northern Iowa 508
5. Massachusetts 488
6. Richmond 456
7. Montana 444
8. Delaware 419
9. Eastern Washington 393
10. McNeese State 366
11. Southern Illinois 329
12. Youngstown State 320
13. Wofford 316
14. Cal Poly 275
15. Elon 247
16. New Hampshire 231
17. Georgia Southern 185
18. Eastern Illinois 182
19. Villanova 148
20. South Dakota State 135
21. Eastern Kentucky 105
22. Western Illinois 67
23. The Citadel 60
24. Harvard 42
25. Central Arkansas 41

AGS
1. Appalachian State (76)
2. James Madison (2)
3. Richmond (1)
4. North Dakota State (2)
5. Northern Iowa
6. Massachusetts
7. Montana
8. McNeese State
9. Eastern Washington
10. Wofford
11. Delaware
12. Southern Illinois
13. Cal Poly (1)
14. Youngstown State
15. Elon
16. Georgia Southern
17. Villanova
18. South Dakota State
19. Eastern Illinois
20. New Hampshire
21. The Citadel
22. Eastern Kentucky
23. Fordham
24. Yale
25. Furman

Lindy's
1. App State
2. NDSU
3. JMU
4. UMASS
5. Montana
6. Richmond
7. EWU
8. McNeese St.
9. Delaware
10. UNH
11. EKU
12. UNI
13. MSU
14. SDSU
15. SIU
16. EIU
17. Elon
18. UCA
19. Liberty
20. Hampton
21. Delaware St.
22. SHSU
23. GSU
24. CCU
25. Southern

Sporting News
1. App State
2. JMU
3. UNI
4. EWU
5. Delaware
6. Montana
7. Richmond
8. NDSU
9. YSU
10. Cal Poly
11. UMASS
12. Elon
13. Wofford
14. McNeese St.
15. WIU
16. EIU
17. Villanova
18. NAU
19. MSU
20. Harvard
21. SIU
22. Citadel
23. UNH
24. Delaware St.
25. Fordham

Phil Steele
1. JMU
2. App State
3. Richmond
4. Delaware
5. UMASS
6. EWU
7. YSU
8. UNI
9. NDSU
10. Cal Poly
11. UNH
12. Montana
13. UCA
14. McNeese St.
15. Wofford
16. Citadel
17. Elon
18. SIU
19. GSU
20. Colgate
21. UT Martin
22. Harvard
23. EIU
24. Weber St.
25. Furman

[smallcollegefbfan]

Also, here is the final GPI and I even listed the next 8 so people could see if any of the top misses might have just barely missed or turned out to be awful selections. It turns out the top 2 misses by most rankings was NDSU and Delaware and both were in this group.

GPI FINAL
1. Richmond
2. JMU
3. Montana
4. Villanova
5. App State
6. UNI
7. Weber St.
8. UNH
9. Cal Poly
10. Wofford
11. SIU
12. W&M
13. UCA
14. Maine
15. Harvard
16. Elon
17. UMASS
18T. EWU
18T. Liberty
20. SCSU
21. Furman
22. McNeese St.
23. MSU
24. Colgate
25. SDSU

Rest
26. GSU
27. NAU
28T. Holy Cross
28T. Texas St.
30. Delaware
31. Samford
32. Brown
33. NDSU

[smallcollegefbfan]

Here are the numbers I got when I crunched them. AGS was indeed #1 until I added Phil Steele's in and we are still the most accurate poll out there. Steele is not a poll but a ranking by one person.

TSN
top 25 correct- 17
biggest miss- NDSU
top 10 correct- 5
NC right? No
pre rank of NC- 4
pre #1 finished? 5

Coaches
top 25 correct- 17
biggest miss- NDSU
top 10 correct- 5
NC right? No
pre rank of NC- 6
pre #1 finished? 5

AGS
top 25 correct- 16
biggest miss- NDSU
top 10 correct- 6
NC right? No
pre rank of NC- 3
pre #1 finished? 5

Lindy's
top 25 correct- 15
biggest miss- NDSU
top 10 correct- 5
NC right? No
pre rank of NC- 6
pre #1 finished? 5

Sporting News
top 25 correct- 13
biggest miss- Delaware
top 10 correct- 6
NC right? No
pre rank of NC- 7
pre #1 finished? 5

Phil Steele
top 25 correct- 18
biggest miss- Delaware
top 10 correct- 5
NC right? No
pre rank of NC- 3
pre #1 finished? 2

Top 25 Correct
1. Phil Steele
2T. TSN
2T. Coaches
4. AGS
5. Lindy's
6. Sporting News

Top 10 Correct
1T. AGS
1T. Sporting News
3T. Phil Steele
3T. TSN
3T. Coaches
3T. Lindy's

Pre rank of NC
1T. Phil Steele
1T. AGS
3. TSN
4T. Coaches
4T. Lindy's
6. Sporting News

Pre #1 finished
1. Phil Steele
2T. AGS
2T. TSN
2T. Sporting News
2T. Coaches
2T. Lindy's

Pre NC Correct
Nobody

Media Outlet TOTAL PTS
Phil Steele- 1, 1, 1, 3 6
AGS- 1, 2, 1, 4 8
TSN- 2, 3, 3, 2 10
Coaches- 2, 3, 4, 2 11
Lindy's- 5, 3, 4, 2 14
Sporting News- 6, 1, 6, 2 15

RANK
1. Phil Steele
2. AGS
3. TSN
4. Coaches
5. Lindy's
6. Sporting News

[smallcollegefbfan]

Is anyone really shocked that Lindy's or Sporting News finished last in this? In fact the top 3 are the exact 3 that I would have put in the top 3. The only surprise is that I thought AGS would be #1 and Phil Steele would be #3. Other than that it was very close to what I would have guessed.

[Syntax Error]

AGS was indeed #1Of course. And unless you skew the results AGS is always #1. xthumbsupx

BTW, one timers like Steele, Sporting News, Lindys, etc. don't count because they are a single person's opinion and do nothing than try to sell their product with a preseason pick....... nothing after that.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Of course. And unless you skew the results AGS is always #1. xthumbsupx

BTW, one timers like Steele, Sporting News, Lindys, etc. don't count because they are a single person's opinion and do nothing than try to sell their product with a preseason pick....... nothing after that.

I compared them all because I feel that it is good to know whose preseason selections were the most accurate. Steele is going to start covering FCS during the season either this year or next year so I would go ahead and lump them in. So last year Steele was the most accurate with AGS a very close second and the coaches and media a distant 3rd and 4th. It really does not shock me because I know that AGS voters try extra hard to get it right where the media and coaches see the polls as a chore and not something they love to do.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Whose final top 25 are you comparing the preseasons top 25s to?

[smallcollegefbfan]

Whose final top 25 are you comparing the preseasons top 25s to?

I am sorry I forgot to say which one in this post because I said it in another thread. I used the GPI. xthumbsupx

[slycat]

Thanks for putting it together. I'm surprised Phil Steele was the more accurate as well. Shows he really does his research.

I expect TSN and AGS to be accurate because they both follow FCS closely. None of the other poll outlets really do.

It'll be interesting to see how accurate FCS Nows preseason poll is after this season. Or if CS.com or SME Network start preseason polls.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Thanks for putting it together. I'm surprised Phil Steele was the more accurate as well. Shows he really does his research.

I expect TSN and AGS to be accurate because they both follow FCS closely. None of the other poll outlets really do.

It'll be interesting to see how accurate FCS Nows preseason poll is after this season. Or if CS.com or SME Network start preseason polls.

I will ad add FCS Now in to the research next year and will put out the results within 2 days after the final GPI is released.

[Syntax Error]

I expect TSN and AGS to be accurate because they both follow FCS closely. None of the other poll outlets really do??? TSN and AGS are the only 2 outlets that do polls unless you count the coaches. CSN with the GPI is the only other one that does weekly rankings.

[Syntax Error]

I will ad add FCS Now in to the research next year and will put out the results within 2 days after the final GPI is released.Sounds like what AGS does every year (compare the major polls/rankings) except they don't include Pete's, Steele's, or any other outlier (who is FCS Now?) that is incomplete. You might as well include any other person who does a ranking if you're going to count those you mention. AGS has about a hundred people doing rankings, TSN has another hundred, 28 coaches, why are they less important than Steele and Pete's? xtwocentsx

[TexasTerror]

Polls and individuals (Pete, Steele, etc) need to be kept to different groups...

Just not sure how you can compare the two groups considering the different makeup of the rankings. Heck, you can take one person from AGS's poll base and say they are more credible than Steele. And as you have shown, once more AGS is #1 amongst legitimate polls. TSN is second.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Polls and individuals (Pete, Steele, etc) need to be kept to different groups...

Just not sure how you can compare the two groups considering the different makeup of the rankings. Heck, you can take one person from AGS's poll base and say they are more credible than Steele. And as you have shown, once more AGS is #1 amongst legitimate polls. TSN is second.

If I had the polls of individuals I would include them. It really is not a big deal. I mean AGS should be more accurate anyway with the political stuff that goes in when coaches vote. The fact that SIDs and some media just slap together a top 25 in the preseason knowing that it will play out and the voters of AGS spend many hours to do it so AGS is taken seriously lets you know that AGS is likely to be more accurate in that regard. The problem is those among those voters don't care, for the most part, if they are that accurate. As a voter in both TSN and AGS I am proud that we have been so accurate here at AGS.

I was just including Lindy's, Sporting News, Steele, etc. so we know who was the most accurate among the magazine lists and polls. If you want to nitpick then you can say AGS is #1 among preseason polls and Steele is #1 among magazines and if you combined both categories Steele would have been #1 last year. I didn't compare the previous years so for all we know Steele could have been #3 the year before or possibly #1. I know the formula Phil uses for his top 40 and I can almost guarantee that he will be #1 about 8 of 10 times. He uses rock solid power ratings that make his ability to pick the top 25 very accurate.

[Syntax Error]

I was just including Lindy's, Sporting News, Steele, etc. so we know who was the most accurate among the magazine lists and polls...
Steele will be in the CSN Consolidated Preseason List again this year when his mag comes out. We KNOW you are a Steele trumpet but you can't compare accuracy when he only does one ranking a year.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Steele will be in the CSN Consolidated Preseason List again this year when his mag comes out. We KNOW you are a Steele trumpet but you can't compare accuracy when he only does one ranking a year.

I compare the accuracy of any media outlet who does a preseason ranking. I will include FCS Now and see if it beats us out or anyone else after the season.

Everyone knows I trumpet anyone who covers FCS and if FCS Now, CSN, or anyone else ever puts out a FCS magazine in newsstands I will fully encourage everyone to buy it. It is always good to see magazines devoted to the non FBS schools. With a D2 mag out this year I am very excited and really hate that D2 is doing one and FCS doesn't have an FCS only print magazine. Hopefully you get one in newsstands from CSN because I love the information packed into your preview now and really think it would be great to have it at Wal-Mart, newsstands, Barnes & Noble, etc. to buy.

[Syntax Error]

I compare the accuracy of any media outlet who does a preseason ranking. I will include FCS Now...Who is FCS Now and why do you consider them a media outlet? The are tons of blogs that do more and have done it for longer. Why not include them if the only qualification is they have a website, no matter if it is less than a year old? Dilutes the seriousness of coverage. xtwocentsx Silly talk. xrolleyesx Never saw a D2 mag at Wal-Mart, newsstands, Barnes & Noble, etc. to buy.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Who is FCS Now and why do you consider them a media outlet? The are tons of blogs that do more and have done it for longer. Why not include them if the only qualification is they have a website, no matter if it is less than a year old? Dilutes the seriousness of coverage. xtwocentsx Silly talk. xrolleyesx Never saw a D2 mag at Wal-Mart, newsstands, Barnes & Noble, etc. to buy.

I don't know who they are to be honest. I am still curious on that but they appear to be seriously covering FCS and I think it is great to see more and more people covering FCS. We need more and more coverage of it. Don't you agree? We will see how legit they are this year. I will include any other one who does preseason ratings.

Pete's Poll doesn't do a "top 25" so I didn't include them but would if they did. I don't remember seeing a preseason top 25 from Don Hansen last year but would include them if I could find one. Who else am I missing?

Never had a D2 print magazine before but there will be one this year, according to some people around D2 I talked to. Although, it is expensive in my mind (around $12).

[RichH2]

Did see a promo for a D2 mag a while back, not interested but surleynice for them. SCFB fan thanks for the comparison , interesting. I dont think any preseason top listmeans much. Its like rating recruiting classes 10 minutes after they are announced. BUT it is fun.

I do wish you and Syntax would stop the sophmoric bickering. BOTH of you

[smallcollegefbfan]

Did see a promo for a D2 mag a while back, not interested but surely nice for them. SCFB fan thanks for the comparison , interesting. I dont think any preseason top listmeans much. Its like rating recruiting classes 10 minutes after they are announced. BUT it is fun.

I do wish you and Syntax would stop the sophomoric bickering. BOTH of you

Well the rankings I put out were last year's preseason ratings based on how they finished. So for instance I took the 2008 preseason rankings and based them on the final GPI done just before January 2009.

When I get called out on something I feel I should explain it but I know where you are coming from. I have asked to bury the hatchet time and time again. I do think the arguments take away from the board. I am glad someone else pointed it out.

[Syntax Error]

When I get called out on something I feel I should explain it but...Just not worth wasting space but if you want to know the whole story then PM me.

[Tribe4SF]

Well the rankings I put out were last year's preseason ratings based on how they finished. So for instance I took the 2008 preseason rankings and based them on the final GPI done just before January 2009.

When I get called out on something I feel I should explain it but I know where you are coming from. I have asked to bury the hatchet time and time again. I do think the arguments take away from the board. I am glad someone else pointed it out.

Please do not be deterred in your efforts to add to the diversity of discussion here. I appreciate the different angles you put up, and you are always clear about what it is you're analyzing, and that your purpose is to promote FCS coverage.xthumbsupx

[smallcollegefbfan]

Please do not be deterred in your efforts to add to the diversity of discussion here. I appreciate the different angles you put up, and you are always clear about what it is you're analyzing, and that your purpose is to promote FCS coverage.xthumbsupx

I appreciate that. I love those highlights you post from W&M. Hopefully you post more plays for Tracy, Archer, and others during the regular season. xthumbsupx

[WMTribe90]

Great post, great info and well thought out. Everyone knows Steele is a person and AGS is a poll, doesn't mean we can't compare the two. Thanks for sharing your work.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Great post, great info and well thought out. Everyone knows Steele is a person and AGS is a poll, doesn't mean we can't compare the two. Thanks for sharing your work.

Glad to see everyone here is in favor of more media outlets covering FCS. Instead of questoining someone we have not heard of we need to compare their accuracy to everybody out there and see who has great ideas and insights that we have perhaps missed from others. Also good to see who is the most accurate so when that person has an off the wall selection we will know that it is not smart to make fun because it could be right. xthumbsupx