UMass Forecast for the Season

[TheMinuteman]

@Kansas State: Loss 28-17
Albany: Win 35-24
URI: Win 42-14
Stony Brook: Win 28-21
@Delaware: Loss 28-24
UNH: Win 17-14
@Richmond: Loss 28-14
@Maine: Win 35-21
Northeastern: Win 35-21
James Madison: Win 28-24
@ Hofstra: Win 42-24

Final Prediction: 8-3

With Returning Starters Tony Nelson and Victor Cruz I feel that UMass can have a great offense. Losing 5 starters on defense will make it hard for UMass to win games with Defense especially with the loss of Courtney Robinson. Also losing QB Liam Coen is tough but signing Kyle Havens may fix that problem so all and all i think UMass will have a successful season.

[bkrownd]

I'm fine waiting for the actual results, which are never what anyone predicts. Anyhow, I don't follow football closely enough to get a sense of where things are going anymore...always busy busy busy.

[GannonFan]

New coach, new QB (step down from the one who left), gobs of losses elsewhere, and from a team that didn't make the playoffs last year. I see 6-5, with losses to K State, UD, UNH, Richmond, and then one against either JMU or Maine.

[Dawg2Rhody]

@Kansas State: Loss 34-7
Albany: Win 24-17
URI: Loss 21-16
Stony Brook: Win 28-21
@Delaware: Win 21-12
UNH: Loss 34-14
@Richmond: Loss 27-7
@Maine: Loss 35-17
Northeastern: Win 28-17
James Madison: Loss 24-13
@ Hofstra: Win 24-21

Final Prediction: 5-6

[Uncle Buck]

New coach, new QB (step down from the one who left), gobs of losses elsewhere, and from a team that didn't make the playoffs last year. I see 6-5, with losses to K State, UD, UNH, Richmond, and then one against either JMU or Maine.

Tack HU on as a loss, this team returns a lot of guys who were just cutting their teeth. While HU struggled last year with a revolving door at QB, i am very comfortable with the offense HU will bring back. It definitely won't be a blowout as predicted.

I still think about 6-5 or 5-6, i don't see 8-3 in the cards.

[GannonFan]

Tack HU on as a loss, this team returns a lot of guys who were just cutting their teeth. While HU struggled last year with a revolving door at QB, i am very comfortable with the offense HU will bring back. It definitely won't be a blowout as predicted.

I still think about 6-5 or 5-6, i don't see 8-3 in the cards.

I'll defer to you on Hofstra - as the game was in Long Island last year with the Hens, and I was covering my eyes for much of the season, I have no feel for the current state of Hofstra football.

[TheMinuteman]

URI: Loss 21-16

If they lost to URI i would be utterly shocked, I saw them play a game last year and they were pathetic

[Uncle Buck]

I'll defer to you on Hofstra - as the game was in Long Island last year with the Hens, and I was covering my eyes for much of the season, I have no feel for the current state of Hofstra football.

We lost our starting QB in pre-game at UConn, we started a junior who has a weak arm, is slow, and really only had the # 2 job because both freshmen behind him were being redshirted. The frosh who did step in did great at Maine, could have won the game for us the week before. UD was his first college start and our o-line was a patchwork with musical centers. Injury bug at the battery killed us. Inconsistent all year with who was in and who was out.

I liked what i saw in the spring, and from what i saw last year, UMass having to replace people at key spots, i think we have more coming back. 42-24 just threw me.

[93henfan]

I'll say 6 to 8 wins as a range and take 7 in the poll.

[UMass922]

New coach, new QB (step down from the one who left), gobs of losses elsewhere, and from a team that didn't make the playoffs last year. I see 6-5, with losses to K State, UD, UNH, Richmond, and then one against either JMU or Maine.

That's how I see it, too. I'm not expecting anything better than 6-5, and won't be shocked to see a losing record. I'll consider it a pleasant surprise if UMass is in playoff contention late in the season.

[bkrownd]

New coach

Huh, just noticed that. Is there a revolving door in the football office at Boyden or something? Every few years there's a new one.

[TheMinuteman]

They are ranked 18th in the country why would you think theyll have a losing record?

[Ud1Hens]

They are ranked 18th in the country why would you think theyll have a losing record?

See: Delaware 2008

[TheMinuteman]

so im guessing that FCS rankings arent like FBS rankings? Any Team can be beat?

[TheMinuteman]

So dont get excited about preseason rankings?.. cause i saw the final record in comparision to your #8 ranking

[Jackman]

I'm picking 6 wins. Wouldn't be surprised if there's only 5 wins. The defense and/or QB will need to surprise to get us to 7+ wins, and so far I'm not seeing it.

We're ranked because there are so few programs seriously attempting to play championship caliber FCS football, and the voters just assume we'll be in the picture one way or another. I'll be happy if we're still 18th at the end of the season.

[TheMinuteman]

6 wins wouldnt keep you in the top 25 though...right?

[GannonFan]

6 wins wouldnt keep you in the top 25 though...right?

If you're 6-5, does your ranking even matter? It's all about the playoffs at this level, and 6-5 won't get you in the playoffs (well, barring winning the autobid from your conference, but the CAA's autobid isn't going to be won by a 6-5 team so that's a moot point).

[WrenFGun]

UMass falls under my obligatory, "New QB, Lower Ranking"* policy, and as a result, I'll be very hesitant about them until I see a couple weeks worth of performance. Coen was really good.

*--This does not apply to Delaware, since I believe Gannonfan, 93 or 89 would be a better QB than Schoenhoft.

[GannonFan]

UMass falls under my obligatory, "New QB, Lower Ranking"* policy, and as a result, I'll be very hesitant about them until I see a couple weeks worth of performance. Coen was really good.

*--This does not apply to Delaware, since I believe Gannonfan, 93 or 89 would be a better QB than Schoenhoft.

Who is the Schoenhoft person of whom you speak??? My memory is fuzzy on that. xthumbsupx

[BDKJMU]

UMass falls under my obligatory, "New QB, Lower Ranking"* policy, and as a result, I'll be very hesitant about them until I see a couple weeks worth of performance. Coen was really good.

*--This does not apply to Delaware, since I believe Gannonfan, 93 or 89 would be a better QB than Schoenhoft.

I would say definitely true for a 1st, 2nd or even 3rd yr QB. But for a 4th yr Jr or 5th yr senior stepping in its a little different. Big difference in breaking in a rFr compared to a rJr at QB.

Fortunately for JMU (aasuming Dudzick gets the starting nod) it will be a rJr. What year is the new UMass QB?

[TheMinuteman]

They have 3 redshirt sophomores and a transfer student coming in from a prep school, So the job is up for grabs. any way you slice it they are going to be inexpirienced but they have a really good tailback so hopefully not too much pressure will be put on the new starter

[TheMinuteman]

and woodward the redshirt senior

[GannonFan]

I would say definitely true for a 1st, 2nd or even 3rd yr QB. But for a 4th yr Jr or 5th yr senior stepping in its a little different. Big difference in breaking in a rFr compared to a rJr at QB.

Fortunately for JMU (aasuming Dudzick gets the starting nod) it will be a rJr. What year is the new UMass QB?

Thing is, you never truly know what you'll get until they hit the field and start playing multiple games as the starter. UD thought they were perfectly fine in 2001 when they had to replace Matt Nagy - they brought back 10 starters on offense and had Nagy's backup, a 5th year senior (all at UD btw), to fill in the void at QB. And the results were beyond awful and UD finished with 4 wins that year. Let's just say, the title of worst QB ever is pretty neck and neck between him (I refuse to name him) and Schoenhoft from last year. Until the guy takes the snaps as the starter, you don't know what you have.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Thing is, you never truly know what you'll get until they hit the field and start playing multiple games as the starter. UD thought they were perfectly fine in 2001 when they had to replace Matt Nagy - they brought back 10 starters on offense and had Nagy's backup, a 5th year senior (all at UD btw), to fill in the void at QB. And the results were beyond awful and UD finished with 4 wins that year. Let's just say, the title of worst QB ever is pretty neck and neck between him (I refuse to name him) and Schoenhoft from last year. Until the guy takes the snaps as the starter, you don't know what you have.

AH'M NOT BASHFUL.............SAM POSTALWAITE.......TIED FO' WORST.....WHIFF SCHOENHOFT...&...B.J. WEBSTER...(CARE TA GUESS WHAT B.J....STOOD FO'??)......BUT TA TOP OFF TUBBY GOIN' POSTAL........HE LANDED DUH WORST BACK-UP EVERAH....UH TRANSFER FROM IONA....FROM IONA......ROB VIOLANTE...xeekxxconfusedxxeekx........BRAWK/OBAMA!!

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

New coach, new QB (step down from the one who left), gobs of losses elsewhere, and from a team that didn't make the playoffs last year. I see 6-5, with losses to K State, UD, UNH, Richmond, and then one against either JMU or Maine.

Ditto what he said!

[Minuteman87]

UMass QBs

Scott Woodward, Sr, and Coen's primary backup the last couple years.
Kyle Havens, Jr., JC transfer, put up some good numbers in JC.
Scott Wallace, Octavious Hawkins and Spencer Whipple all redshirt sophs who saw limited action last year (yes, Whipple is Mark Whipple's son).

Reports from spring practice (I did not attend) is that Woodward and Havens are fighting it out to start. None of the returnees looked particularly good when I saw them last year, but who knows. My feeling is why bring in a JC unless you expect him to contribute right away?

The good news is we have some pretty good receivers (Cruz, Horne, Sanford), and a good running game with Nelson back.

We shall see.

[footballman65]

I think Albany might have UMass's number this year!

[KAUMASS]

Havens & Whipple are Coen replica's-drop back passers. Woodward had a flash of brilliance and impressed me when he filled in for Coen in the second half of the BC game 2 years ago. Other games that Woodward played in for Coen he was average. Wildcard with Woodward at QB if he plays this year. Hawkins is more of a Rodney Landers type guy potentially. It really is going to depend of what type of offense UMass is going to run this year for what QB to use. They may end up using 2 QB's. Umass will have a decent offensive line this year and will be able to run the ball with Tony Nelson. I will assume that Umass will run the ball quite a bit early in the year to free up the passing game and give the QB some confidence, whoever it may be.

We will get a good test with K-State to start the season. If we play respectfully against K-State, we will have a solid team. We will need a better defensive effort than last year as I am not sure of our offense with a new QB is going to do this year. UMass to me this year is a wildcard. Could be awesome, could stink.

[Bull Fan]

With all due respect, I don't know how you can toss out 7 or 8 wins with a new coach, new quarterback and other starters moving on from last years underachieving season. Uninspired loss against a third-place Richmond team who went on to win the whole bag of donuts.

Hofstra has a good shot at redemption this year ;)

[Uncle Buck]

With all due respect, I don't know how you can toss out 7 or 8 wins with a new coach, new quarterback and other starters moving on from last years underachieving season. Uninspired loss against a third-place Richmond team who went on to win the whole bag of donuts.

Hofstra has a good shot at redemption this year ;)

You bet your a$$ we do!

[Houndawg]

With all due respect, I don't know how you can toss out 7 or 8 wins with a new coach, new quarterbackand other starters moving on from last years underachieving season. Uninspired loss against a third-place Richmond team who went on to win the whole bag of donuts.

Hofstra has a good shot at redemption this year ;)

It happens, SIU was in that boat last year.

[Bull Fan]

Big big difference between the Mo-valley conference and the CAA, especially with the amount of playoff teams coming out of the CAA each year.

[UNHWildCats]

so im guessing that FCS rankings arent like FBS rankings? Any Team can be beat?
UMass is ranked so high because of who they are. Everyone thinks just cause its UMass they will be good.

[WMTribe90]

Somewhere between 5 and 7 wins, no playoffs.

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

New coach, new QB (step down from the one who left), gobs of losses elsewhere, and from a team that didn't make the playoffs last year. I see 6-5, with losses to K State, UD, UNH, Richmond, and then one against either JMU or Maine.

Never ever count UMASS out, but above is a fair assessment.

[jstclmet]

CAA Forecast - UMass

The Pluses:
1. 15 Starters return (8 Off, 6 Def, 1 ST)
2. OL comes back @ 4/5's strength led by Preseason AA LT Ducasse, 6/5, 315. Other returnees are LG Samuda 6'3 305, C Ihne 6'5, 280 & RG Getek 6'6. 295. OL looks nice, just need to shore up the RT spot.
3. TB Nelson returns in what will most likely be a run dominant team this year.
4. On the D side of the ball, UMass has 3 returning DL (DT Collier 6'1 280, DE Harrison 6'2 260, & NT Harrington 6'3, 285. If memory serves me correctly, didn't UMass run with a 4 man DL??

The Negatives:
1. New HC
2. QB spot up for grabs
3. Weaknesses @ LB & DB

The Questions:
1. With new HC, will UMass continue to have discipline problems??
2. Will UMass feature the run more this year due QB issues??
3. UMass had 28 PPG last year vs giving up 26 as UMass feasted on their weaker sisters. Without Coen, will those numbers reverse???
4. UMass rushed for 142 RYPG, & gave up 194 RYPG. Any reason to see an improvement here??? IMHO, NO.

The Schedule;

9/5 @ Kansas St. K.St runs away to a 31 - 13 win.

9/12 vs Albany. UMass gets its first win of the season in convincing fashion by running over the much smaller Danes 28 - 10.

9/19 vs URI. Continuing their momentum from the previous week, UMass runs URI out of Amherst in a 35 - 7 win.

9/26 vs Stony Brook. UMass takes advantage of another team in a rebuilding mode, and wins it's 3rd in a row at home by virtue of it's ground game 24 - 13.

10/3 Bye

10/10 @ Delaware. This game really stumps me.

QB edge UD
OL edge UMass
DL edge UMass
LB push
DB edge UD
RB/WR's push
ST's edge UD
HC edge UD
Homefield - UD

The OL/DL matchup has me wavering, plus UMass is coming off of a bye. Gotta think KC & the home field advantage pulls this one out. UD 21 - UMass 20.

10/17 vs UNH. UMass falls late to UNH with a FG, 14 - 17.

10/24 @ UR. UR too strong in all components. UMass falls 14 - 28.

10/31 @ Maine. On the road in a fierce division rivalry game, UMaine outslugs UMass 23 - 16.

11/7 vs Northeastern. After having lost 4 straigth, UMass feasts on lowly NJ 31 - 16.

11/14 vs JMU. UMass has a 17 - 13 lead late in the 4th, but sees JMU bring back a flash from 08 in a thrilling 4th qtr come from behind victory, as UMass falls 17 - 20 as time expires.

11/21 @ Hofstra. On the road against a much improved HU team, UMass loses another close game 21 - 28, but holds their heads up high as they believe in 2010, the close games will fall their way.

CAA 2 - 6, Overall 4 - 7

[jmufan999]

They are ranked 18th in the country why would you think theyll have a losing record?

how about this: they really weren't very good last year, have a new coach AND (more importantly in my opinion) QB, are in the toughest conference in the nation, and one more... preseason rankings mean jack. should i provide more reasons?

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

Young, overmatched Defense fails UMASS in 1st season of post-D Brown era. UMASS finishes 5-6, giving up a ton of points, more than seen in a long while at McGuirk. Signature win over Delaware at the Tub. Upset Special: home loss to Chuck Priore's rapidly improving Stony Brook 11.

@Kansas State: Loss 52-17
Albany: Win 37-34, OT FG to stun upset minded Danes.
URI: Win 42-21. Some things take a while to change.
Stony Brook: Upset Loss 35-28. Eddie Gowins (Bridgton Academy) goes wild, rushing for 230 yrds and 4 TD's.
@Delaware: Win 21-20. Hope springs eternal.
UNH: Loss 49-28. Two embarrassing losses in a row to long-time rival.
@Richmond: Loss 35-14. About as expected.
@Maine: Loss 24-21. J. Cosgrove and crew pin a 2nd stunner on the Minutemen.
Northeastern: Win 27-24. Huskies go down in OT. UMass pulls out 2nd extra frame game.
James Madison: Loss 42-28. Late season swoon.
@ Hofstra: Win 17-14. Defense finally figures it out. Something to build on for 2010.

xpeacex

[Redwyn]

CAA Forecast - UMass

9/26 vs Stony Brook. UMass takes advantage of another team in a rebuilding mode, and wins it's 3rd in a row at home by virtue of it's ground game 24 - 13.



Rebuilding?

Hmmm....Not exactly sure how we're rebuilding....Relatively sure we're returning 15 starters and all but one specialist (a pretty below par kicker), and we still have the school's career rushing leader, the offensive rookie of the year, and our entire defensive secondary and linebacking corps....

I dunno, I'm not very good with words so I may not know what rebuilding means. Regardless, I'm quite excited for the U Mass game. Thinking of making the trip to see it, visit a few old friends. I hear the stadium you have up there is beautiful...

[Houndawg]

Big big difference between the Mo-valley conference and the CAA, especially with the amount of playoff teams coming out of the CAA each year.

Like W&M and Villanova?xwhistlex

[jstclmet]

Rebuilding?

Hmmm....Not exactly sure how we're rebuilding....Relatively sure we're returning 15 starters and all but one specialist (a pretty below par kicker), and we still have the school's career rushing leader, the offensive rookie of the year, and our entire defensive secondary and linebacking corps....

I dunno, I'm not very good with words so I may not know what rebuilding means. Regardless, I'm quite excited for the U Mass game. Thinking of making the trip to see it, visit a few old friends. I hear the stadium you have up there is beautiful...

I considered "Re-Focused" & "Re-Dedicated", but the more I read your HC's words in his 3/24 article, it seemed "REBUILD" was the correct term.


Several of our 21 graduating seniors were major contributors on defense so we will go through a bit of a rebuilding stage this spring. The first step in that process was to review and evaluate how our opponents attacked us last fall and what adjustments we could make to be better equipped to handle those offenses. As a result, we will make some dramatic changes to our defensive philosophy for the upcoming 2009 season. With the hiring of our new Assistant Head Coach of the Defense, Jim Gush, we are now changing from our traditional 3-4 package to a 4-3 defense. Jim comes to Stony Brook with over 28 years of experience in the 4-3, a defense that will allow us to better handle the multiple schemes that we are seeing in both Big South and non-conference action. On offense, our primary objective is very clear - we must become more consistent and efficient with our passing game - improvement in our passing game will make our potent ground game (9th best rushing attack in FCS) even better.

While the transition to the 4-3 and improvement in the passing game are priorities this spring, perhaps the most important goal from my perspective as head coach will stress how we define ourselves as a program moving forward

http://goseawolves.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/032409aaa.html

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

Rebuilding?

Hmmm....Not exactly sure how we're rebuilding....Relatively sure we're returning 15 starters and all but one specialist (a pretty below par kicker), and we still have the school's career rushing leader, the offensive rookie of the year, and our entire defensive secondary and linebacking corps....

I dunno, I'm not very good with words so I may not know what rebuilding means. Regardless, I'm quite excited for the U Mass game. Thinking of making the trip to see it, visit a few old friends. I hear the stadium you have up there is beautiful...

Chuck Priore doesn't believe in rebuilding. He will have a solid team ready to go. His arc is always angling upwards.....

[Jackman]

Regardless, I'm quite excited for the U Mass game. Thinking of making the trip to see it, visit a few old friends. I hear the stadium you have up there is beautiful...

I don't think even the most diehard fan would call McGuirk "beautiful". It's a fairly minimalist facility, but it's reasonably large and reasonably full with a damn big band, all of which count for something in the Northeast. The "beautiful" part might be the drive up through the Berkshires as the leaves turn. That's one angle for convincing the womenfolk who might be resisting a road game. Price is nice too: $10 for the best seat in the house and free parking. 3 hour drive from NYC. Doesn't make sense not to go. Besides, I heard we're using the attendance at the Albany and Stony Brook games to decide who is going to be the 15th CAA member. ;)

[bkrownd]

The "beautiful" part might be the drive up through the Berkshires as the leaves turn.

Driving is not beautiful. Beautiful is when I walked from my house in East Village to the stadium in the autumn mornings, along Main Street up and over the hill (Amherst), kicking piles of crisp leaves ahead of me the whole way. Brings tears to my eyes just remembering it...absolutely spectacular. xbawlingx