CAA Forecast - Richmond

[jstclmet]

The Pluses;

1. 18 starters return (7 Off, 9 Def, 2 ST)
2. OL is 4/5's back and has good size.
3. Ward back for 3rd year as starting QB, and can run the ball as good as some of the best QB's in the league.
4. London has a full CAA season under his belt and a NC to build on. London proved he's a very good coach at making adjustments whether it be from week to week, or during the game.
5. Not being too different from last year's team, and with the infusion of new blood, this team has the potential to be better in 09.

The Negatives (not many);

1. UR must break in a RB & TE.
2. Both DE's are gone, but they played some last year without one or both of them. This won't be that new to UR.
3. And this is simply just a shot in the dark, UR could be over confident coming into the season (which may cost them a few early season games), and may lack the hunger of last year's team. It's doubtful that London would let such an attitude manifest itself.

The schedule;

9/5 @ Duke. UR keeps it close for a half, but pulls in the reigns in the 2nd half to protect their players. Duke leads 9 - 2 in this series, and continues it's dominance in a 24 - 10 win.

9/12 @ Delaware. UR flexes it's muscles and shows to the rest of FCS why they are the Defending champs and dispatches a game UD 27 - 10 as Ward wins this one with his arm and his legs.

9/19 vs Hofstra. UR playing in front of the home crowd runs out to an early 21 - 0 halftime lead as UR tries to feature it's RB'S more. UR wins 28 - 7.

9/26 vs VMI. UR again focusing on it's running game runs over VMI 35 - 7.

10/3 Bye

10/10 @ JMU. This series the away team has been winning of late. Advantage UR. UR comes back just as strong if not stronger while JMU is not the JMU of old. Again advantage UR. JMU's defense will still be questionable, while UR's offense should be gellin. UR wins a close one 24 - 21. However, I will hedge, and say either this game or the next has "Upset Potential" written all over it.

10/17 @ Maine. UR goes on the road for another tough matchup. UR's Def stands strong in denying Maine a victory in front of the home crowd. UR wins 27 - 20.

10/24 vs UMass. UR returns home to take on a weakend UMass team. Mixing in run & pass, UR wins convincingly 28 - 14.

10/31 @ Towson. UR dispatches TU with ease 42 - 7.

11/7 vs Villanova. The Battle Royale for all of the CAA marbles. This is basically the same UR team that came into the Mainline last year. Nova too is similarly staffed. UR fails to score on it's final drive as time runs out and loses to it's first FCS opponent 31 - 35.

11/14 @ Georgetown. Erasing the taste of defeat from their mouths, UR runs over GT 35 - 0.

11/21 vs William & Mary. In another good CAA matchup of Va teams, UR outlasts the Tribe again 27 - 23.

CAA 7 - 1, Overall 9 - 2

[Wildcat80]

I hope one day for UNH to be in their position--defending NC's! What I remember from last year was a UR team that peaked at the right time--and got a few breaks in Iowa. They have a tough schedule with at least 7 teams capable of beating them. Back to back road games at JMU then Maine could be killers. Just like the Super Bowl---its hard to repeat.

[phillyAPP]

The Pluses;

1. 18 starters return (7 Off, 9 Def, 2 ST)
2. OL is 4/5's back and has good size.
3. Ward back for 3rd year as starting QB, and can run the ball as good as some of the best QB's in the league.
4. London has a full CAA season under his belt and a NC to build on. London proved he's a very good coach at making adjustments whether it be from week to week, or during the game.
5. Not being too different from last year's team, and with the infusion of new blood, this team has the potential to be better in 09.

The Negatives (not many);

1. UR must break in a RB & TE.
2. Both DE's are gone, but they played some last year without one or both of them. This won't be that new to UR.
3. And this is simply just a shot in the dark, UR could be over confident coming into the season (which may cost them a few early season games), and may lack the hunger of last year's team. It's doubtful that London would let such an attitude manifest itself.

The schedule;

9/5 @ Duke. UR keeps it close for a half, but pulls in the reigns in the 2nd half to protect their players. Duke leads 9 - 2 in this series, and continues it's dominance in a 24 - 10 win.

9/12 @ Delaware. UR flexes it's muscles and shows to the rest of FCS why they are the Defending champs and dispatches a game UD 27 - 10 as Ward wins this one with his arm and his legs.

9/19 vs Hofstra. UR playing in front of the home crowd runs out to an early 21 - 0 halftime lead as UR tries to feature it's RB'S more. UR wins 28 - 7.

9/26 vs VMI. UR again focusing on it's running game runs over VMI 35 - 7.

10/3 Bye

10/10 @ JMU. This series the away team has been winning of late. Advantage UR. UR comes back just as strong if not stronger while JMU is not the JMU of old. Again advantage UR. JMU's defense will still be questionable, while UR's offense should be gellin. UR wins a close one 24 - 21. However, I will hedge, and say either this game or the next has "Upset Potential" written all over it.

10/17 @ Maine. UR goes on the road for another tough matchup. UR's Def stands strong in denying Maine a victory in front of the home crowd. UR wins 27 - 20.

10/24 vs UMass. UR returns home to take on a weakend UMass team. Mixing in run & pass, UR wins convincingly 28 - 14.

10/31 @ Towson. UR dispatches TU with ease 42 - 7.

11/7 vs Villanova. The Battle Royale for all of the CAA marbles. This is basically the same UR team that came into the Mainline last year. Nova too is similarly staffed. UR fails to score on it's final drive as time runs out and loses to it's first FCS opponent 31 - 35.

11/14 @ Georgetown. Erasing the taste of defeat from their mouths, UR runs over GT 35 - 0.

11/21 vs William & Mary. In another good CAA matchup of Va teams, UR outlasts the Tribe again 27 - 23.

CAA 7 - 1, Overall 9 - 2

Well done !

Maybe 3 loses, its hard to keep the steam rolling and injuries MAY play a role. The CAA will not let them win easily.

[WMTribe90]

You're missing one of their biggest loses. The departure of DC Russ Huesman to take the head job at Chatty. He is a great coach and a large part of their defensive success. At a minimum they will have to adjust to a new DC and coaching style.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

If Richmond doesn't do a Mickey Matthews against Duke they can beat them. I think they will lose two games in the CAA South and beat all the northern teams.

[ur2k]

You're missing one of their biggest loses. The departure of DC Russ Huesman to take the head job at Chatty. He is a great coach and a large part of their defensive success. At a minimum they will have to adjust to a new DC and coaching style.

I agree with you in that the loss of Huesman is huge, but I think we're insulated by having a defensive-minded head coach. I think the change in the d last year was more a reflection of London's influence than Huesman's. Huesman was here for awhile and was a great defensive coordinator for us but the addition of London last year seemed (IMHO) to change some of the philosophy of the D - namely playing faster with better technique and just absolutely flying to the ball and causing turnovers.

The loss of Logan and Sidbury is big - but I think our secondary and LBs will be better - allowing for us to mix things up more on D than just a 4 man rush which we lived off of last year. We didn't blitz much last year and I'd imagine to see more of that.

I think the biggest loss is in the backfield. Vaughan is gone as is Crone who was a heck of a blocking FB. Hopefully our big O Line and the RBs can fill this void.

[SideLine Shooter]

If they can continue to play solid, error free, stupid mistake free football like they did in the playoffs they will definitely be a team to be reckoned with. I am curious to see how much difference the loss of the DC is going to make in a very solid returning defensive unit.

[jmufan999]

i'm not sure what "doing a Mickey Matthews" means.... when FBS teams win over FCS teams around 96% of the time. Duke is a heck of a lot better than a lot of Sun Belt teams (among other conferences), plus they were playing their first game with a new coach and a new level of enthusiasm. not sure exactly what that means, but anyway. i really don't concern myself with FBS games at all. it's not a fair fight and has absolutely nothing to do with national championship aspirations. i'd much rather win a NC than an FBS game. i digress.

i do like UR a lot this year... don't sleep on the Maine game. they're very tough at home and it's a wicked long trip for the players. it's hard to predict all this stuff now, but there's no reason UR shouldn't be in the postseason mix, if not winning the CAA outright. Logan and Sidbury are big losses. they were obviously a factor in the NC game, and i'm assuming the 5 picks thrown by Armanti Edwards were probably because of intense pressure in his face. and 7 sacks in the NC game.... sick. going to be hard without those guys. we'll see.

[WrenFGun]

I think that Richmond is more likely to win over 'Nova than JMU, given Home/Road. I think Richmond is fortunate they're not going up to Maine a little later in the season. I do agree with your upset stuff and always appreciate these write-ups. Nice work!

[URMite]

I like UR2K's terminology about being "insulated" against the change in DC. Last year's defense did seem to have a bit of a Mike London stamp on it, and he seems much more hands on concerning that side of the ball. I don't think the D takes a step back because of that loss except perhaps in how quickly and effectively they make adjustments to the game plan (the overall scheme should be fine without Huesman).

As for the DEs, last year's 2nd string seemed just as effective as the ones we lost, although maybe not as visually spectactular and may not have as much potential at the next level. My main concern on D is this year's 2nd string DEs. I'm sure they will get plenty of time on the field and still feel they may be unproven at this point.

On offense I really feel this year's team has a lot more potential than last year's however the loss of a lot of bulk (RB/FB/2xTE) will necessitate more creativity from the coaching staff for it to show on the field. We will have an experienced QB and OLine as well as tremendous depth at WR, but while the replacements for the lost starters have shown a lot of talent they very likely will need a somewhat different game plan for it to be effective. They seem quicker and perhaps better receivers than those who left but don't seem to have the size for a straight forward attack.

But I could be completely mistaken as the staff seems to be searching for some personnel shifts in order to lessen the need for strategic changes. And during spring ball, it appeared to be successful. That appears to be the biggest overall question mark for the team. Will the offensive staff choose the correct path and be able to follow through on it.

[JMU Newbill]

I know the trend on the JMU vs. UR series (home team has lost the last few). But come on people.... JMU is still one of the toughest, if not THE TOUGHEST, place to play in the CAA. It's well documented how hostile of an environment it is. All of the reasons that have been discussed for UR beating JMU, and everyone else for that matter, are well justified.... but let's put to rest the whole "the away team has the advantage in this series" crap.

That being said... no offense to UR... I like the scenario of Villanova, UR, and JMU all beating each other once. I think JMU beats UR, but loses to Villanova. I can see Nova losing to Richmond, but beating JMU.

JMU beats UR, UR beats Nova, Nova beats JMU... 3 way tie for the CAA South. It's not completely out of the question.

[DLS]

sure, those streamers will intimidate the crap out of anyone.

[Dukie95]

JMU beats UR, UR beats Nova, Nova beats JMU... 3 way tie for the CAA South. It's not completely out of the question.

That scenario wouldn't surprise me, but that may not be the exact combination. All I know is I'm glad JMU has both of them at home. I also think Delaware's going to get some wins in that mix as well.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I know the trend on the JMU vs. UR series (home team has lost the last few). But come on people.... JMU is still one of the toughest, if not THE TOUGHEST, place to play in the CAA. It's well documented how hostile of an environment it is. All of the reasons that have been discussed for UR beating JMU, and everyone else for that matter, are well justified.... but let's put to rest the whole "the away team has the advantage in this series" crap.


Sure, but would you say "You can throw the records and the homefield advantage out when JMU and UR Play?!"

I mean road team has won 4 straight. Nobody is saying this means UR will win because of this trend. But 4 straight is 4 straight. With exception of 2006, they have all been razor-thin margins too!

[WMTribe90]

sure, those streamers will intimidate the crap out of anyone.

I'm more terrified of the inflatable dog....

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

As for the DEs, last year's 2nd string seemed just as effective as the ones we lost, although maybe not as visually spectactular and may not have as much potential at the next level. My main concern on D is this year's 2nd string DEs. I'm sure they will get plenty of time on the field and still feel they may be unproven at this point.


I agree with you ... to a point. Pierre Turner is solid, but periodically injured. Nick Battle has more upside but needs to prove himself. His progression may be the single largest factor in our ability to make another playoff run.

Nobody has seen much from the backups at DE. They are high on Cooley, but he has been injury plagued, as well.

Do we move Martin Parker to the outside some, since we are much deeper at DT?

[GannonFan]

I'm more terrified of the inflatable dog....

Frankly, the electric guitar in the marching band (and the two guys that pull the speaker around behind it during routines) has always disturbed me. xeekx

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

The Negatives (not many);

1. UR must break in a RB & TE.
2. Both DE's are gone, but they played some last year without one or both of them. This won't be that new to UR.
3. And this is simply just a shot in the dark, UR could be over confident coming into the season (which may cost them a few early season games), and may lack the hunger of last year's team. It's doubtful that London would let such an attitude manifest itself.


Excellent Analysis Overall. I am more concerned about #'s 1 and 2, than 3. I don't think 17 seniors return for a 5th season unless they are pretty motivated to repeat.

And yes, London is probably Mid-Pack in the CAA as a X's and O's guy, but he is the best Motivator in the conference.

[mcveyrl]

sure, those streamers will intimidate the crap out of anyone.

Lost a 21 point halftime lead


I'm more terrified of the inflatable dog....

48-24


Frankly, the electric guitar in the marching band (and the two guys that pull the speaker around behind it during routines) has always disturbed me. xeekx

41-7


You guys probably ought to be scared of the scoreboard.

[GannonFan]

You guys probably ought to be scared of the scoreboard.

Of course I am, with that tiny video board I'm afraid of excessive eye strain. xlolxxlolxxlolx

[phillyAPP]

Lost a 21 point halftime lead



48-24



41-7


You guys probably ought to be scared of the scoreboard.


Touche'
you won.... so until we meet again......you may brag

[DLS]

and to think, at half-time i was actually feeling bad for mickey. i thought to myself "we may just get this coach fired"

son of a b.

[PapaBear]

Agree or disagree, I compliment you on the research and effort. These things are a real fun read. (And I mean that in a good way xthumbsupx)

[paward]

The Spiders will compete well this year. It will have some of last years identity but it will be a completely different team. The one intangible is that we lost some great position coaches. The new guys are suitable replacements but I am interested to see how the changes effect team chemistry.

London will do his best to motivate. Right now a repeat is a nice thought but as the great "Hoosier" coach stated in the movie, let that thought stay right where it is. The Duke game to me is the tell, tell game to see what the year will be. Not that I am expecting to win but it will gage if we have the fight we had in Virginia last year. We lost that game but it was a fight until late.

[Dukie95]

Of course I am, with that tiny video board I'm afraid of excessive eye strain. xlolxxlolxxlolx

I could say something about old UD fans needing their reading glasses...but you're right, our mini-tron sucks. :(

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I could say something about old UD fans needing their reading glasses

Is this the JMU retort about everyone? Richmond is a bunch of old farts in Red Sweaters too, right? xeyebrowx

[Dukie95]

Is this the JMU retort about everyone? Richmond is a bunch of old farts in Red Sweaters too, right? xeyebrowx

Except for the "a bunch of" part, yeah. ;)

[Cobblestone]

With London returning as HC and Faragalli back as OC, it's a given that Richmond will have a winning season and get back into the playoffs. I don't think they'll repeat but I do think they'll win at least one playoff game. That being said, if Richmond does go deep into the playoff bracket then I'm sure some FBS program will be looking to grab London. I do know his name was mentioned last season for the Boston College job shortly after Jags left.

BTW Richmond fans, I think it's just a matter of time before Vincent Brown lands an HC job somewhere.

[bluehenbillk]

I could say something about old UD fans needing their reading glasses...but you're right, our mini-tron sucks. :(


Hey at least we have fans over 40 years old....

[ItsyBitsySpider]

If the defense proves leakier than last year, I hope the coaches are willing to put more on Ward's shoulders. He is so calm and seasoned, and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet. With Hightower and JV, and a stout defense, it made sense to focus on the running game and play to our strengths. But if our defense leaks some, Ward is a tremendous asset capable of carrying the team on his shoulders. He's that good in my opinion.