CAA Forecast - William & Mary

[jstclmet]

The Pluses:
1. 15 starters returning (8 Def + 7 Off), plus others who have started at times during the season.

2. 4 of the OL return, only the tackles are plus 300.

3. DL returns at full strength.

4. QB new, but experienced.

5. RB's are good.

6. Could win a number of other conferences.

The negatives:
1. The middle of the OL is < 300, and the word last year was that the OL was not very strong. Hopefully, their strength & conditionin program improved during the off season.

2. Both DE's are on the small side (Tracey 243 & Herbert 237).

3. Will only be as good as their running game. Very heavy burden on the OL, and will still have to outpoint teams to win. Very unlikely, they'll be able to shut the better teams down.

On to the schedule;

9/5 @ UVA - UVA's fanbase is very confident (over confident) that this game will be a cakewalk. UVA is not a very strong ACC team, and is very young. However, W&M does not appear to have the horses to run with UVA. That smallish def will get run over here. Tough to pick a score, but I'd say something like 27 - 10 UVA.

9/12 vs Central Connecticut State - CCSU has a lot to work out, and will run into a W&M team that's angrier than #@$%. 35 - 3 W&M.

9/19 @ Norfolk St. - In state rivalry games are always fun. W&M exercises their run and passing game, and breezes for another W, 31 - 13.

9/26 vs Delaware - Two years ago, UD came into Zable stadium, and set all kinds of records on opening night. W&M seeks to erase these demons and prove to the world that they are a contender in the CAA South. The W&M ground game runs over, through, and around UD for a convincing 28 - 17 win.

10/3 @ Villanova - The first game with one of the CAA South big boys. Nova's fast and aggressive def proves to be to quick for the W&M OL, and the Nova O wears down the W&M DL for a 38 - 21 Nova win.

10/10 @ Northeastern - Fired up from the previous week's loss, W&M takes it out on lowly NU. NU is in major rebuilding mode, and is worn down quickly. W&M 24 - 7.

10/17 Bye

10/24 vs JMU. This is the game that may very well decide if W&M makes the playoff. At this point W&M only has two losses on the season, one to a FBS team, the other to a ranked opponent. Win here, and W&M could be in the Catbird seat. Lose here, and it's a tough road ahead. JMU is also in Major Re-Build, but there's still a lot left in the cupboard. W&M had two weeks to prepare. Shaking my Magic 8 ball, and flipping a coin, I'm going with W&M in a close one 24 - 21.

10/31 @ URI. Riding last week's high, W&M does not dare let down @ URI. Feeling the playoff momentum beginnng to build, W&M wins going away 33 - 10.

11/7 vs Towson. Another must win for W&M. W&M dispatches TU who's in the middle of rebuilding for a 24 - 0 win.

11/14 vs New Hampshire. W&M stole one @ UNH in 08. Now in the comforts of Zable, W&M wins the home finale with the playoffs in sight 28 - 24.

11/21 @ Richmond. Season finale at the Defending Champs. Unfortunately for W&M the Spiders are not ready to give up their trophy yet. UR prevails 27 - 23.

Overall 8 - 3, CAA 6 - 2.

[WrenFGun]

I think W&M has a strong shot at the playoffs, though that is a brutal end to the season. With that said, I'm not sure I was alive the last time UNH beat W&M it seems like we lose to them so much.

I have no doubts that Archer will be able to step in for Phillips competently. I think W&M will sit comfortably in third in the CAA, and I think the game with UNH may decide which of those two teams make the playoffs. W&M will have been more battle-tested, it would seem, at that point.

[Dukie95]

The CAA South is just too tough. JMU, Nova and UR are probably only going to lose to each other in some combination (throw in UD at home into that mix). Therefore, W&M won't beat any of them.

Delware's a bit of an unknown, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt that QB was their only issue last year and they'll contend again.

I'll give them NSU, CCSU, Towson, URI and NU (with reservations, only because it's a tough venue for anyone)

Fortunately they have two teams at their approximate level in UD and UNH at home. If they can take those two, that gets them to 7. Predicting any more than 7 is a stretch, IMO.

[Tribe4SF]

The Tribe defense will be the story this year. The offense will be equal to last year. The D looks to be the strongest edition since 1996, when W&M ranked #2 in the country. The front line returns...

DE Adrian Tracy- Led CAA in sacks, and TFL per game, and was second behind Belcher in tackles by DLs (72). Backed up by So. Ravi Pradhanang (24 tackles/ 4 TFL in 9 games), who may be Tracy's equal by the time he graduates.

DE CJ Herbert- Very quick four year starter who has slimmed down since playing only DE (23 tackles/ 5.5 TFL/ 2 sacks in 10 games). Backed up by So. Marcus Hyde (11 tackles/ 2 sacks in 6 games) who is a pass rush specialist.

DT Sean Lissemore- Three year starter is up to 295, and finally recovered from nagging shoulder injury. 51 tackles/ 7.5 TFL/ 4 sacks. Ran a 4.8 for NFL scouts this spring. Backed up by fomer starter Jr. Mike Stover (28 tackles/ 4.5 TFL/ 1.5 sacks).

DT So. Harold Robertson- Started as a rFr. totaling 26 tackles. 300 lb. run stopper with good feet. Backed up by 270 lb. Jr. Bryan Jean-Pierre, a former DE who missed last year, and was the star of the DL this spring.

Adding to these eight are Sr. DT Daniel Pulley, and Jr. DE Kyle O'Brien. These two have been situational players, and both have alot of experience. rFr. DT Josh Thompson (295) may also see time.

On the whole this is the fastest DL I've ever seen at W&M. The LB group looks equal to last year, but with more speed, and the secondary is experienced, and deep.

How all this stacks up in the hyper-competitive CAA South is anybody's guess.

[GannonFan]

1. The middle of the OL is < 300, and the word last year was that the OL was not very strong. Hopefully, their strength & conditionin program improved during the off season....

3. Will only be as good as their running game. Very heavy burden on the OL, and will still have to outpoint teams to win. Very unlikely, they'll be able to shut the better teams down....

9/26 vs Delaware - Two years ago, UD came into Zable stadium, and set all kinds of records on opening night. W&M seeks to erase these demons and prove to the world that they are a contender in the CAA South. The W&M ground game runs over, through, and around UD for a convincing 28 - 17 win....


So, on one hand, you question W&M's offensive line and their running game and make it out to be one of their weaknesses, and then you predict that W&M's running game will run all over Delaware. Despite the fact that until the mop-up drive in last year's game, against a UD defense that wasn't as good as this year's D's going to be, W&M had only 90 yards rushing, total, at an uninspiring 3 yd/carry clip. And that was with the threat of Phillips at QB throwing for 300+yards. And now you think they'll turn into a running force, again, against a defense that is better this year than last and will have an offense to help that will, in all likliehood, far surpass the 145 total yards and 12 (yup, just 12) first downs they got last year. And you wonder why people don't take your predictions seriously. xrolleyesx

[Tribe4SF]

So, on one hand, you question W&M's offensive line and their running game and make it out to be one of their weaknesses, and then you predict that W&M's running game will run all over Delaware. Despite the fact that until the mop-up drive in last year's game, against a UD defense that wasn't as good as this year's D's going to be, W&M had only 90 yards rushing, total. And you wonder why people don't take your predictions seriously. xrolleyesx

UD's defense was very good last year, and I'll be anxious to see how the loss of the two leading tacklers on the DL will impact things. Gone also are Johnson and Blair at LB, and Andrew at one corner. I know you guys believe those returning will be just as good, but that's a whole lot of tackles between those five guys.

[jstclmet]

So, on one hand, you question W&M's offensive line and their running game and make it out to be one of their weaknesses, and then you predict that W&M's running game will run all over Delaware. Despite the fact that until the mop-up drive in last year's game, against a UD defense that wasn't as good as this year's D's going to be, W&M had only 90 yards rushing, total. And you wonder why people don't take your predictions seriously. xrolleyesx

Thou dost protest too much.....UD's Def was the heart of the team last year, but you graduated some pretty good guys. Looking through UD colored glasses you see the Def as better this year (Glass 1/2 full???) . Come Sept, we'll find out. As this thread is about W&M, I'll save my UD assessment until I get to them.

Oh, and who kind Sir takes your post seriously????xwhistlex

[GannonFan]

UD's defense was very good last year, and I'll be anxious to see how the loss of the two leading tacklers on the DL will impact things. Gone also are Johnson and Blair at LB, and Andrew at one corner. I know you guys believe those returning will be just as good, but that's a whole lot of tackles between those five guys.

Well, those two leading tacklers on the DL had a fair bit of help and depth last year - they were only the 8th and 10th leading tacklers on the team, for a team that had to play from behind a lot (teams rushed a lot against UD late in the games as UD's offense was beyond ineffective). So that means the guys backing them up played a lot and were pretty good. Hester and Gilbeaux played a ton last year at DT and will start this year. And we're so concerned about the DL that we're moving the best player on the DL, Marcorrelle, to LB.

As for LB, Harrison was a Fr-r last year and buried on the depth chart at the start of the year. Three season ending injuries later to Void, Makumbi, and Anderson, and he had to play. All 3 of those guys come back, plus Harrison, and now Marcorrelle moving to MLB.

And the defensive backfield is the furthest thing from concern. Andrew is gone, sure, but Graves was 2nd team All-American last year, Bratton, another All-American candidate, comes back after missing most of the season (10 games) last year, and that means that Walters, the best CB on the team, goes back to CB after filling in for Bratton last year, and Grant at the other CB after starting most of the year there last year. Delaware's DB's are the strength of the team and probably the best def backfield in the conference.

Sure they have to prove it, but it's not just wishful thinking that the defense will be better next year.

[Ivytalk]

I agree that the JMU game is a "must" home win for the Tribe. Without it, I think they'll be playing golf early.xpeacex

[89Hen]

The CAA South is just too tough. JMU, Nova and UR are probably only going to lose to each other in some combination (throw in UD at home into that mix). Therefore, W&M won't beat any of them.
Don't know about that. There will be plenty of wins and losses for all five of the above teams against each other. xnodx

[otto4pres]

URI pulls off the upset how embarrassing.

[TribeNomad]

As usual, a brutal CAA South. At our level, an injury to a key player or two can really change things. Consider that as a factor and all bets are off----I have seen a team with great potential slip down a couple of notches after such an injury (or injuries).

[JmuSkinsfan]

I think the CAA South will finish:

1) 'Nova (7-1)
2) Richmond (7-1)
3) JMU (6-2)
4) W&M (5-3)
5) UD (4-4)
6) Towson (1-7)

W&M and UD are going to fight it out for one of the final playoff spots with a 5-3 record in conference. I think the South can get in 4 this year...with the South owning the North in head to head once again

[TribeNomad]

I see no way that we get 4 in from the South, you gotta believe that at least one from Maine, UMass or UNH goes----just look back to last year, they had to add the CAA North team to balance it out some.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Thou dost protest too much.....UD's Def was the heart of the team last year, but you graduated some pretty good guys. Looking through UD colored glasses you see the Def as better this year (Glass 1/2 full???) . Come Sept, we'll find out. As this thread is about W&M, I'll save my UD assessment until I get to them.

Oh, and who kind Sir takes your post seriously????xwhistlex...THIS STATEMENT WAS REFERIN' TA GANNONFAN.

AH DO......xnodx.......BRAWK!!

[GannonFan]

I see no way that we get 4 in from the South, you gotta believe that at least one from Maine, UMass or UNH goes----just look back to last year, they had to add the CAA North team to balance it out some.

UNH should be very good. I agree, no reason why there won't be at least one CAA North team.

[Wildcat80]

Since we get both Nova & w&m--I like our chances to decide things. A trip down south in November should prepare us for playoffs. plus we are overdue. And our young guys will be coming of age by November & playoffs. Count on the Cats.

[Dukie95]

Don't know about that. There will be plenty of wins and losses for all five of the above teams against each other. xnodx

Hmm. I think that's what I said...unless you feel I wasn't inclusive enough of UD.

I was trying to say that I don't think JMU, VU or RU will lose to anyone outside that group within the south (unless they're playing at UD). That would mean therefore, that W&M will not get a win against any of those four.

[Dukie95]

And you wonder why people don't take your predictions seriously. xrolleyesx

Yes, his predictions are out there, but at least they provide conversation starters in an otherwise boring time of year.

Maybe we should predict his predictions:

Nova 11-0
JMU 3-8

;)

[mcveyrl]

Don't know about that. There will be plenty of wins and losses for all five of the above teams against each other. xnodx

Don't forget about Towson.

Wait. Nevermind. Forget about Towson.

[bluehenbillk]

Don't forget about Towson.

Wait. Nevermind. Forget about Towson.

Boy, if there ever was a year it'd be tough to be a Towson fan, this is it.

[jmufan999]

we're not getting 5 teams in again. not after the backlash from last year.

GRANTED, our conference WINS playoff games (instead of just getting there), but people got ALL up in arms last year about having 5 teams in for the second straight year. and i believe we went 4-1 [edit: in the first round, obviously], which you would think would prove our conference's strength. but i think Maine would have needed to be more competitive. a 15-40 loss didn't look good, even if it was our 5th best team. i think we get 4 in this year... right now, i'm leaning toward UR, Nova, JMU, and ______. very early, but that's where i'm leaning.... don't know who the 4th team will be yet.

[ur2k]

I think the CAA can get 5 if its deserved. Do you think the selection committee really cares about the outcry on AGS?

W&M will be good, JMU will be good, UR will be good, Nova will be good (and my pick to win the conference), DE (the jurys out but could be good). As we've seen in the past anything can happen amongst this group when you get into conference play.

[Dukie95]

I think the CAA can get 5 if its deserved. Do you think the selection committee really cares about the outcry on AGS?

Edit: nevermind...neither the time, nor place.

[bluehenbillk]

Maybe I missed it, but what outcry??? If there was a team that had a gripe last year about not getting in I'd think it was W&M. So who should've made it over either W&M or Maine, I'm interested in knowing.

I know some people could be jealous over the talent disparity, but again, what team(s) deserved to be there????

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Maybe I missed it, but what outcry??? If there was a team that had a gripe last year about not getting in I'd think it was W&M. So who should've made it over either W&M or Maine, I'm interested in knowing.

I know some people could be jealous over the talent disparity, but again, what team(s) deserved to be there????

Liberty, right? xoopsx

[bluehenbillk]

9/26 vs Delaware - Two years ago, UD came into Zable stadium, and set all kinds of records on opening night. W&M seeks to erase these demons and prove to the world that they are a contender in the CAA South. The W&M ground game runs over, through, and around UD for a convincing 28 - 17 win.




Nothing like the facts to support an argument. W&M mustered a whopping 3.4 yds per carry last year against the Hens on 35 carries. Not what you'd classify as potent by any stretch.

[jstclmet]

Nothing like the facts to support an argument. W&M mustered a whopping 3.4 yds per carry last year against the Hens on 35 carries. Not what you'd classify as potent by any stretch.

Last year's facts are just as important as yesterday's winning lottery numbers. Neither of them can help you today (unless you have the winning ticket xnodx).

A few posts back it's been noted that the UD Def was good last year. However, you're not bringing all of that talent back in 09. Conversely, W&M's line comes back 4/5's full. With game experience, a solid off season strength & conditioning program, very sound RB's, and a very mobile running QB, this will be a strength of the Tribe. One that they will rely on to secure the majority of their victories.

When I provide the UD Forecast, you and the other hens can fill in the blanks of my logic.

[bluehenbillk]

When I provide the UD Forecast, you and the other hens can fill in the blanks of my logic.

xcoffeexxcoffeexxcoffeex On the edge of my seat for that. xcoffeexxcoffeexxcoffeex

[GannonFan]

When I provide the UD Forecast, you and the other hens can fill in the blanks of my logic.

Actually, they're only called blanks when they come in between some tidbits of actual logic. Using no logic at all means just one big blank. xthumbsupx

[Cobblestone]

10/31 @ URI. Riding last week's high, W&M does not dare let down @ URI. Feeling the playoff momentum beginnng to build, W&M wins going away 33 - 10. xnonox

We will shock the CAA! HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!