Playing with Probability and Playoff Favorites

[JohnStOnge]

Probable winners:

Ralph might be able to get Dr. Massey to do a better job of this but here are my estimates of probable winners and how probable they are to win, with the most probable winner first. I used Sagarin because his reporting format makes it easiest and Massey says his system is not designed for prediction. But I'm thinking one should probably get something similar using the Massey system and doing it properly instead of crudely as I did. Maybe Ralph can get Dr. Massey to do some so I can see if I'm in the ballpark. By "probable" I'm saying I'm estimating that favorites by a certain predicted margin can be expected to win a certain percentage of the time. For example: Sagarin favors App to beat Lafayette by 21.28 and I'm estimating that favorites by that system in I-AA games can be expected to win about 90 percent of the time (0.90).

App State (0.90) over Lafayette
New Hampshire (0.85) over Colgate
Texas State (0.66) over Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois (0.64) over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa (0.58) over Eastern Washington
Hampton (0.56) over Richmond
Montana (0.53) over Cal Poly
Nicholls State (0.52) over Furman

What that basically boils down to in my eyes is that it'd surprise me if Lafayatte and or Colgate won (1 chance in 10 and 1 in 7). But all of the other games are in the 1 in 2 to 1 in 3 range so whoever wins wouldn't represent anything unusual. The bottom four are basically coin flips.

My gut feeling is:

App State over Lafayette
New Hampshire over Colgate
Georgia Southern over Texas State
Southern Illinois over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa over Eastern Washington
Richmond over Hampton
Montana over Cal Poly
Furman over Nicholls State

[GreatAppSt]

My gut feeling is:

App State over Lafayette
New Hampshire over Colgate
Georgia Southern over Texas State
Southern Illinois over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa over Eastern Washington
Richmond over Hampton
Montana over Cal Poly
Furman over Nicholls State


Your probability right John. :D

[HPCAT]

Probable winners:

Ralph might be able to get Dr. Massey to do a better job of this but here are my estimates of probable winners and how probable they are to win, with the most probable winner first. I used Sagarin because his reporting format makes it easiest and Massey says his system is not designed for prediction. But I'm thinking one should probably get something similar using the Massey system and doing it properly instead of crudely as I did. Maybe Ralph can get Dr. Massey to do some so I can see if I'm in the ballpark. By "probable" I'm saying I'm estimating that favorites by a certain predicted margin can be expected to win a certain percentage of the time. For example: Sagarin favors App to beat Lafayette by 21.28 and I'm estimating that favorites by that system in I-AA games can be expected to win about 90 percent of the time (0.90).

App State (0.90) over Lafayette
New Hampshire (0.85) over Colgate
Texas State (0.66) over Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois (0.64) over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa (0.58) over Eastern Washington
Hampton (0.56) over Richmond
Montana (0.53) over Cal Poly
Nicholls State (0.52) over Furman

What that basically boils down to in my eyes is that it'd surprise me if Lafayatte and or Colgate won (1 chance in 10 and 1 in 7). But all of the other games are in the 1 in 2 to 1 in 3 range so whoever wins wouldn't represent anything unusual. The bottom four are basically coin flips.

My gut feeling is:

App State over Lafayette
New Hampshire over Colgate
Georgia Southern over Texas State
Southern Illinois over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa over Eastern Washington
Richmond over Hampton
Montana over Cal Poly
Furman over Nicholls State

Interesting analysis John.

I just do not believe that the SoCo will go 3-0 this weekend.

I can not see the Furman defense stopping the Nicholls offense, and the Nicholls defense is much better than folks are giving them credit for. This game is not being talked up since there are not any Nicholls posters on AGS, I believe, but Furman will need to score around 30 some points to win this one, IMHO.

I will not play the homer card for TXST, as everyone know the TXST/GSU game will be a battle and probably the best 1st round matchup, at least on paper.

[Hansel]

I made a thread on GPI, Poll predictions here
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5633&page=1&pp=10

My first round winners

EWU
CP
TXSU
UNH
ASU
NSU
SIU
Richmond

[ChiefGSU275]

I have got to believe that Furman will beat Nicholls St. for a number of reasons.

1. They are at home
2. They have a great offense
3. They have faced an option offense 2 of the last 3 weeks, and have fared well against it.
4. They have alot of experience in winning close games this year.

BUT, i do like watching Furman lose. >-)

[B&G]

On the negative side for Furman:

1) Their D hasn't exactly been a brick wall.
2) They play a lot of close games and it might bite them soon.
3) Bobby Lamb is not one of the Top 10 coaches in the playoffs.

[blueballs]

Ingle Martin is the wild card for Furman. The guy is uncanny at evading the rush and making big plays either by scramble or pass. He's way faster than he looks, has a cannon, understands the game and loves pressure.

He is especially effective late in games when the defense's front 7 gets tired. He was the one guy on Furman's offense I genuinely feared could win the game by himself when they played GSU a few weeks ago.

You've got to slow down Felton to have a chance against Furman, but Martin can still beat you even if you do everything well.

[fuEMO]

Ingle Martin is the wild card for Furman. The guy is uncanny at evading the rush and making big plays either by scramble or pass. He's way faster than he looks, has a cannon, understands the game and loves pressure.

He is especially effective late in games when the defense's front 7 gets tired. He was the one guy on Furman's offense I genuinely feared could win the game by himself when they played GSU a few weeks ago.

You've got to slow down Felton to have a chance against Furman, but Martin can still beat you even if you do everything well.


Very nice post blueballs. I know it is very hard to say those nice things about Furman. My question about Southland teams NSU and TSU is have they faced the running attacks like the SoCon has. Furman and GSU bring alot of weapons to the table. I feel TSU will have their hands full, the game will be close but I see Foster breaking big plays in the 4th quarter to pull GSU to a win.

Without a doubt Ingle will be the best QB NSU has faced this season. Ingle is now running the Furman offense at a level I have never seen.

Concerning the comments by HPCAT. Furman will bring some of the best linebackers in 1AA. Freeman and Jones will get many tackles on Saturday. The problem with the Furman D this season is inexperience. Two seniors on the 2 deep, but I feel alot more confident seeing them handle the UTC offense and imo the best tailback in the SoCon.

[fuEMO]

On the negative side for Furman:

1) Their D hasn't exactly been a brick wall.
2) They play a lot of close games and it might bite them soon.
3) Bobby Lamb is not one of the Top 10 coaches in the playoffs.


To B&G. Playing close Games has cost us once GSU. And I think Ingle learned a very big lesson. And point #3 is total BS, BL might be 1-2 but I wouldn't take another 1AA coach on the sideline to replace him. BL has gotten Furman in the playoffs three out of his first four years and I don't see a slide anytime in the near future.

[JohnStOnge]

I hate to say it because of all the stuff I said about perceptions of GSU's speed on another thread, but...

I watched McNeese vs. Nicholls State on a replay when I was in Lake Charles for Thanksgiving. I came away with the same impression as I did in watching the game live. It doesn't look like Nicholls Statehas the speed at the skill positions that Georgia Southern typically has.

I did say on the thread that, while Texas State has probably seen at least one team with overall speed better than Georgia Southern's this year in Texas A&M and others with comparable overall team speed in the Southland, it probably has not seen a team running that double wing option with the speed Georgia Southern has at the skill positions. If it's a typical GSU team I think it's got a faster QB and faster wingbacks than Nicholls State has and having seen both Austin and the Nicholls fullback play I feel pretty certain that GSU has a faster fullback.

In spite of everything I've said about GSU's speed being overstated, in this particular instance I think Nicholls State's offense is going to look to Furman like slow motion compared to that same offense as Georgia Southern runs it.

And Furman's got the top offense in the playoffs statistically.

And with respect to Texas State and GSU...I think having played Nicholls State helps Texas State some, but nobody runs that offense like Georgia Southern does. I think a typical GSU team looks a lot quicker running it. I also believe GSU's going to have an edge in nerves. I think playoff games are much more routine for the Eagle program.

Anyway, it's just gut feeling. I'd love for Nicholls State and Texas State to prove me wrong.

[JohnStOnge]

Without a doubt Ingle will be the best QB NSU has faced this season. Ingle is now running the Furman offense at a level I have never seen.



I don't know if that's true. That guy at Texas State is really good. I've seen both he and Ingle Martin play on TV and if I had to choose based on what I've seen I'd rather the team I'm pulling for have Nealy. Statistically Martin has been only slightly better throwing the football and Nealy has been much more dangerous with his feet.

And that's pretty much consistent with the impression I've had from watching the two. Comparable as passers, both have strong arms, etc. Similar efficiency.

But Nealy is much, much more dangerous running the ball. It's not even close.

Can I say for sure? No. But rest assured there is some doubt about whether or not Ingle Martin is the best QB Nicholls State has seen.

[eagleskins]

I don't know if that's true. That guy at Texas State is really good. I've seen both he and Ingle Martin play on TV and if I had to choose based on what I've seen I'd rather the team I'm pulling for have Nealy. Statistically Martin has been only slightly better throwing the football and Nealy has been much more dangerous with his feet.

And that's pretty much consistent with the impression I've had from watching the two. Comparable as passers, both have strong arms, etc. Similar efficiency.

But Nealy is much, much more dangerous running the ball. It's not even close.

Can I say for sure? No. But rest assured there is some doubt about whether or not Ingle Martin is the best QB Nicholls State has seen.

But Foster is the most dangerous QB TSU will see. And it is not even close.

[JohnStOnge]

But Foster is the most dangerous QB TSU will see. And it is not even close.

Texas State saw Reggie McNeal of Texas A&M. He's bigger than Foster (6'2", 209 to 5'9", 164) and, unless you believe Foster could've done as well as third in the Texas 5A 100 meters as a high schooler, faster. Playing in the Big 12, he averaged more per rush (6.9 per carry to 6.1) than Foster did playing in I-AA.

Since Texas State played Texas A&M, they've played a more dangerous quarterback than Georgia Southern has, more dangerous running backs, etc., etc. Texas A&M just flat has better athletes than Georgia Southern or anybody else in I-AA. And Texas State played them before they were decimated by injuries.

When I say it's not even close between Nealy and Martin in terms of running the ball, there's an objective basis for saying that. One guy has averaged 7.2 yards per carry and the other has averaged 2.5. That is not, by any reasonably standard, even close.

[Kill'em]

I also believe GSU's going to have an edge in nerves. I think playoff games are much more routine for the Eagle program.


Actually, I don't think this will be an advantage. Outside of the senior class there is very little playoff experience. And the seniors have only four playoff games, so this won't be a factor.

[Kill'em]

Concerning the comments by HPCAT. Furman will bring some of the best linebackers in 1AA. Freeman and Jones will get many tackles on Saturday. The problem with the Furman D this season is inexperience.
Freeman gets all the attention but Jones is going to be a star. He was all over the field when y'all played us. Those two will be the difference.

[blukeys]

Actually, I don't think this will be an advantage. Outside of the senior class there is very little playoff experience. And the seniors have only four playoff games, so this won't be a factor.


I think Playoff experience is just as important for the coaching staff as it is for the players and here GSU does have an advantage in terms of experience. (Now GSU fans can always argue that Sewak's playoff experience is largely negative :rolleyes: :rolleyes: )

However, I believe that coaches have to do more to prepare their teams for a playoff game and experience in this area can't help but be a positive.

[Kill'em]

I don't consider it negative; it's just that our senior class has only 4 playoff games. The only negative was last year's loss to Hew Hampshire. We looked lost, which is a direct reflection of coaching.