Could the SoCon be a one-bid conference this year?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

[EDIT] Corrections made (thank you Syntax Error)

Just taking a look at the OOC schedules for the SoCon teams and the prospect for getting more than two teams in looks pretty grim. We may be lucky to get two in even though most of the teams will be better this year than last year. Could be tough for any of the teams minus App. to finish 5-3 or better in the conference, and if you lose only 3 you have to win all of the OOC games (probably won't get any 7-4 teams in unless they have 7 DI wins and an FBS win). Winning out in the OOC schedule will be tough for most teams this year and for others very tough or impossible.

App. State
@ East Carolina
McNeese State
North Carolina Central

Verdict: App. will be the favorite to win the conference again...IMO they have the most winnable FBS game. If AE stays healthy they should get the automatic bid. If he misses more than two DI games App could be in trouble. Having a DII on the schedule won't make it any easier.

The Citadel
@ North Carolina
@ Princeton
Presbyterian

Verdict: El Cid will be one of the most improved SoCon teams IMO...certainly their OOC schedule is much more favorable than last year's OOC schedule with an NAIA, Clemson, and Florida, but winning 8 games might be too tall of an order for them.

Elon
Davidson
@ Presbyterian
@ Wake Forest

Verdict: They have a favorable OOC schedule for making the playoffs. The problem is, they are going to have their third OC in three years. How will this affect the offense?

Furman
Presbyterian
@ Delaware
@ Auburn

Verdict: Delaware could be very tough depending on whether or not they hit a homerun or strike out with their next transfer QB (they never seem to do anything else). Don't think Auburn will be good this year (who knows) but it's an SEC game and they will still be tough. On the bright side, they host Elon, App. State, and Wofford. The biggest question mark will be their defense. Getting 8 wins will be tough regardless.

Georgia Southern
Albany
@South Dakota State
@ North Carolina

Verdict: Probably the second toughest OOC schedule of all of the SoCon teams. Albany should be the easiest opponent and even they are tougher than the worst OOC opponent for every other SoCon team. Add to this road games at Wofford, at App. State and at Elon, you have a tough schedule. The good news is that we should be (call me a homer) the most improved team as we won't have 500 freshmen playing.

Samford
@ Central Florida
Jacksonville
Miles

Verdict: They may actually have the easiest OOC schedule. Samford should get 2 or possibly 3 OOC wins (they have a winnable FBS game IMO). Might be too tough for them to get enough SoCon wins to get to 8 wins total though.

Wofford
@ South Florida
Charleston Southern
@ Wisconsin

Verdict: This is the toughest OOC schedule of all of the SoCon teams. If the South Florida game were later in the year I'd say that they'd have a chance to get the win (seeing how Elon played USF in 2007) but with a new QB and RB and OL it will be tough. The Wisconsin game is winnable (see the games with Cal Poly in '08 and The Citadel in '07) but will still be pretty tough.

Western Carolina and UTC Wagner has WCU going in the right direction but they won't have it this year. And unless Huesman is a miracle worker UTC won't get 7 DI wins this year (especially with Alabama and a sub-DI on the schedule). Despite this, I can totally see Western (and maybe even UTC) playing spoiler to one of the better teams in the conference which could make the road to get multiple bids even tougher

Will we see six CAA teams in the tourney this year? :(

[apppackdad]

.Nope!

I truly believe SoCon gets 3 bids in 2009.
Some combination of App, GSU, Furman,Woff, Samford.
Since I am predicting today......


1). Appalachian. Healthy Armanti, improved D, More speed than anyone in the division.
2). Georgia Southern. These guys will be scary good. They are rebuilding a PROGRAM. Athletes all over the place and they will have a something to prove Attitude!
3).Furman. They won't wow you , just play sound,fundamental football. They won't beat themselves any where other than Boone, they will just win and leave you shaking your head ,wondering what happened.
4). Woff. Experience, sound coaching, excellent schemes.
5). Samford. Was 2008 a fluke? Won't sneak up on anyone and have to go to some tough venues. Still a tough out.

SoCon closer to 4 than 1!!!!!

[Syntax Error]

I would think the SoCon will be pushing 3 bids.

I think you meant this:
Elon @ Wake Forest
Georgia Southern @ North Carolina

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't see us dropping 3 games in conference (just a belief of mine) so if we beat an FBS team we should be in good standing for the playoffs.

Our team is still pretty good, it 2009 isn't our year than 2010 will.

[JMU Newbill]

.Nope!

I truly believe SoCon gets 3 bids in 2009.
Some combination of App, GSU, Furman,Woff, Samford.
Since I am predicting today......


1). Appalachian. Healthy Armanti, improved D, More speed than anyone in the division.
2). Georgia Southern. These guys will be scary good. They are rebuilding a PROGRAM. Athletes all over the place and they will have a something to prove Attitude!
3).Furman. They won't wow you , just play sound,fundamental football. They won't beat themselves any where other than Boone, they will just win and leave you shaking your head ,wondering what happened.
4). Woff. Experience, sound coaching, excellent schemes.
5). Samford. Was 2008 a fluke? Won't sneak up on anyone and have to go to some tough venues. Still a tough out.

SoCon closer to 4 than 1!!!!!

You think Elon... a team that's returning something like 19 of 22 starters... a team that finished barely out of the playoff hunt last year, some could argue they should have been in... is going to finish no better than 6th in the SoCon? I sure would like to hear your justification for how SAMFORD is going to be better than Elon.

But back to the topic at hand... I can see the SoCon getting two or three bids this year... one just seems unlikely as they will almost certainly have at least 2 teams in the top 10 at all times next year (as they do most years). The OOC schedules are tough, no doubt, but won't be devastating.

[whitey]

NC Central isn't DII and a win against them counts towards the playoffs. Right? The SoCon will get at least two teams in and probably three if a team or two can notch a win over an FBS opponent.

[JMU Newbill]

NC Central isn't DII and a win against them counts towards the playoffs. Right? The SoCon will get at least two teams in and probably three if a team or two can notch a win over an FBS opponent.

NCCU is a Division II Independent. A win against them does not count towards the playoffs.

Excluding the ECU game and the NCCU game, how many games does App have on their schedule? Crazy thought, but App doesn't exactly have a lot of wiggle room in their schedule to get those 7 or 8 wins.

Yea... I know... all the App fans are convinced they will beat ECU. Well... I like to think I am more of a realist.

[th0m]

Nah I'm pretty sure NC Central does count, we played them last season and it counted.

[JMU Newbill]

Well they are DII... so I guess the argument is whether that "counts" or not.

[CID1990]

Don't know how things will shape up, but the improvement in El Cid from the 2008 to the 2009 seasons will be bigger than the improvement from the 2006 to the 2007 season.

Pretty certain that our OL along with one heck of a new running back and some good competition at QB will make our offense much more potent than it was last year. Once again, as usual our defense is going to be a question mark.

[mcveyrl]

NC Central is NOT D II. They are moving up to D I. I'm not sure where they are in the process, but we had this discussion last year and they do count.

As to apppackdad's list, I would replace Samford with Elon. He's listed the reasons that I'm a Samford doubter this year and someone else has mentioned the people that Elon returns.

I think the SoCon is guranteed two bids with a good shot at a third.

[elon77]

You think Elon... a team that's returning something like 19 of 22 starters... a team that finished barely out of the playoff hunt last year, some could argue they should have been in... is going to finish no better than 6th in the SoCon? I sure would like to hear your justification for how SAMFORD is going to be better than Elon.

But back to the topic at hand... I can see the SoCon getting two or three bids this year... one just seems unlikely as they will almost certainly have at least 2 teams in the top 10 at all times next year (as they do most years). The OOC schedules are tough, no doubt, but won't be devastating.

They lose 1 wide out on offense and 1 LB and 1 DB on defense and someone thinks they will finish out of the top 4? Interesting!

[JMU Newbill]

They lose 1 wide out on offense and 1 LB and 1 DB on defense and someone thinks they will finish out of the top 4? Interesting!

The logic is beyond my understanding.

[introvertedGSUfan]

The logic is beyond my understanding.

Would it really surprise you if they did finish that low though? I'm not saying they will, but almost all of the SoCon teams are going to reload this year and I suspect the playing field will be much more even.

[whitey]

NC Central is NOT D II. They are moving up to D I. I'm not sure where they are in the process, but we had this discussion last year and they do count.


Thanks. That's what I thought.

[mcveyrl]

Would it really surprise you if they did finish that low though? I'm not saying they will, but almost all of the SoCon teams are going to reload this year and I suspect the playing field will be much more even.

It's the SoCon. I would not be surprised if they finish that low, but I would definitely not pick them to finish that low at this point.

[appmaj]

Excluding the ECU game and the NCCU game, how many games does App have on their schedule? Crazy thought, but App doesn't exactly have a lot of wiggle room in their schedule to get those 7 or 8 wins.



You are exactly right...Give up one of those "sleeper" games that most fans think we shoud win (WCU), and App could be in a bad spot.

[AtlantaMountaineer]

NC Central is NOT D II. They are moving up to D I. I'm not sure where they are in the process, but we had this discussion last year and they do count.
As to apppackdad's list, I would replace Samford with Elon. He's listed the reasons that I'm a Samford doubter this year and someone else has mentioned the people that Elon returns.

I think the SoCon is guranteed two bids with a good shot at a third.

According to their website NC Central is in their 4th year of a 5 year transition. Not sure what that means as far as them counting as a Div I win or not though.

[JMU Newbill]

Would it really surprise you if they did finish that low though? I'm not saying they will, but almost all of the SoCon teams are going to reload this year and I suspect the playing field will be much more even.

Honestly... it would surprise me. And I agree with you that the SoCon tends to beat up on each other and anything can happen. But you said it perfectly, other teams are RELOADING. Elon is literally returning almost their entire team; a team that was pretty darn good last year. IMO, they severly underachieved last year. Even with a crappy late season loss, I think they may have been a bit of a snub for the playoff field. Elon doesn't have to reload anything, they can pick up right where they left off and improve without having to institute much change.

Now I don't think they will run away with anything... the SoCon is too good for that. But it would honestly surprise me a lot more for them to finish lower than 3rd place than it would if they won the SoCon. Just my opinion.

[Eaglesrus]

Well, the obvious answer is of course we could be a one-bid conference, but I think that the likelihood is pretty remote. I think that there's just as good a chance that the conference champion won't be the team with the best overall record in the conference.

[PhoenixPhan06]

Honestly... it would surprise me. And I agree with you that the SoCon tends to beat up on each other and anything can happen. But you said it perfectly, other teams are RELOADING. Elon is literally returning almost their entire team; a team that was pretty darn good last year. IMO, they severly underachieved last year. Even with a crappy late season loss, I think they may have been a bit of a snub for the playoff field. Elon doesn't have to reload anything, they can pick up right where they left off and improve without having to institute much change.

Now I don't think they will run away with anything... the SoCon is too good for that. But it would honestly surprise me a lot more for them to finish lower than 3rd place than it would if they won the SoCon. Just my opinion.

My alumni bias aside, I can't imagine anything less than a 3rd place finish in the SoCon in '09. It has been well documented that we're returning a ton of players on both sides of the ball for the second straight year so we're gonna hit the ground running in Week 1 and not look back until we've made the playoffs!

While I thought our '09 recruiting class was solid, it doesn't seem that we will have any players step right in so there will be a very similar team on the field in '09, albeit with more experience.

App is App, we all know what they have coming back so they are and should be the front runner for the SoCon title. After ASU the field is wide open, but IMO, I see Elon, Furman/Wofford/GSU (in any order) rounding out the top 5 with ASU, Elon, and either Furman/Wofford/GSU getting the third bid.

Best of luck to everyone in '09!

[OL FU]

My alumni bias aside, I can't imagine anything less than a 3rd place finish in the SoCon in '09. It has been well documented that we're returning a ton of players on both sides of the ball for the second straight year so we're gonna hit the ground running in Week 1 and not look back until we've made the playoffs!

While I thought our '09 recruiting class was solid, it doesn't seem that we will have any players step right in so there will be a very similar team on the field in '09, albeit with more experience.

App is App, we all know what they have coming back so they are and should be the front runner for the SoCon title. After ASU the field is wide open, but IMO, I see Elon, Furman/Wofford/GSU (in any order) rounding out the top 5 with ASU, Elon, and either Furman/Wofford/GSU getting the third bid.

Best of luck to everyone in '09!

Who is your last opponent in 2009xconfusedxxeyebrowx:pxsmiley_wix

[PaladinFan]

I don't know Phoenixphan, Elon loses a couple of guys, sure, but off a team that went 8-4 and laid a pretty massive egg at the end of the season. Sure, reputation counts for something, but remember that GSU, Furman, App, Samford, and The Citadel are pretty much returning their entire rosters as well.

....and in response to an earlier post. If I hear one more App fan cite "we have the most speed" as the reason they are going to win, I'll jump off a bridge. ASU, yes has some quick players, but don't think for a moment the talent level is sustained without Armanti Edwards. If he is hurt or plays poorly, your team loses pretty much every time.

[Longrifle]

I don't know Phoenixphan, Elon loses a couple of guys, sure, but off a team that went 8-4 and laid a pretty massive egg at the end of the season. Sure, reputation counts for something, but remember that GSU, Furman, App, Samford, and The Citadel are pretty much returning their entire rosters as well.

....and in response to an earlier post. If I hear one more App fan cite "we have the most speed" as the reason they are going to win, I'll jump off a bridge. ASU, yes has some quick players, but don't think for a moment the talent level is sustained without Armanti Edwards. If he is hurt or plays poorly, your team loses pretty much every time.

Oh come on Paladin Fan, don't have a knee jerk reaction. If we don't have Armanti it just puts us back with the rest of the SoCon. Doesn't mean we will lose everytime. Keep licking your chops, I remember everyone else being glad when Richie Williams left. I'm sure we will be prepared for life after Armanti. Hey, if I say it can I watch you jump off a bridge?

[PhoenixPhan06]

Who is your last opponent in 2009xconfusedxxeyebrowx:pxsmiley_wix

Schedule's not out yet but its looking like a repeat of last season's finale with App State, only this time in Elon.

[Libertine]

In 2009, NC Central will be in their 3rd season of transitioning to D-I. They do count.

[Rekdiver]

SoCon is too strong not to get 3 in.....maybe 4 if Elon doesn't fold the last two games...

[PaladinFan]

Oh come on Paladin Fan, don't have a knee jerk reaction. If we don't have Armanti it just puts us back with the rest of the SoCon. Doesn't mean we will lose everytime. Keep licking your chops, I remember everyone else being glad when Richie Williams left. I'm sure we will be prepared for life after Armanti. Hey, if I say it can I watch you jump off a bridge?

Williams was a great player, but didn't really touch Edwards in terms of the total package, IMO. Williams didn't have the straight line speed or the strength to really break tackles. He was a whiz at short slant routes and skipping around for three yards. And don't forget how good that 2005 ASU defense was.

That said, Williams had a better supporting cast. Richardson, Fowlkes, Jackson, etc. were as much a part of App's success as the quarterback. I don't think ASU still has that. However, they do have the best player in FCS football.

[Appinator]

I don't know Phoenixphan, Elon loses a couple of guys, sure, but off a team that went 8-4 and laid a pretty massive egg at the end of the season. Sure, reputation counts for something, but remember that GSU, Furman, App, Samford, and The Citadel are pretty much returning their entire rosters as well.

....and in response to an earlier post. If I hear one more App fan cite "we have the most speed" as the reason they are going to win, I'll jump off a bridge. ASU, yes has some quick players, but don't think for a moment the talent level is sustained without Armanti Edwards. If he is hurt or plays poorly, your team loses pretty much every time.

we have the most speed












j/k:D

[PaladinFan]

I hate you so much right now.