NCAA APR Threats coming into reality?

[Appinator]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/other/2009-02-05-ncaa-academics_N.htm

Just read this on USA today's website. The article specifically mentions Chattanooga, Jacksonville State, and Weber State as very close to losing all access to post season play because of poor performance in the class room.

This is a story on a lot of different levels. Due to Tennessee's plan to cut university athletics budget state wide, could this news end the UTC program?

Jacksonville State has a potential gamebreaker in Periloux, and could be barred from the post season. If in the potential case of the Southland last year (where if an inelidgable team wins the conference championship, the conference loses their auto-bid), could this spell some trouble for the OVC too?

Weber State had a break through year, and returns a lot of talent as well, could the same thing happen to the Big Sky?

[Libertine]

Yikes.

[Tribe4SF]

Yikes is right. Weber has already lost scholarships, and to be five years down the road, and still in the crosshairs reeks of a lack of leadership.

[I Bleed Purple]

Yikes is right. Weber has already lost scholarships, and to be five years down the road, and still in the crosshairs reeks of a lack of leadership.


http://www.standard.net/live/sports/163700/

Plus, the APR is comprised of two numbers, one based on current, short term scores, and the other on long term scores, which takes time to build up after taking a dive. Weber's short term number, at least as McBride says, is sufficiently high, it's the other number that is progressing up, but still under the accepted line.

Anything else?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The NCAA is so mad at Indiana, they're going to bring the hammer down on Centenary. It's an old joke, but still oh so apropos.

I've written big articles on this topic last year:


UT-Chattanooga’s football team went from an 816 yearly APR last year to a 928 this year (2007). Weber State head football coach Ron McBride improved the APR for his football team to 911 (in 2007) – up 80 points from last year and clearly headed in the right direction.

If Chattanooga gets hit, it will have an awful lot to do with the crisis in the UT educational system and a round of expulsions three years ago than it does the academic standing of the current players. If Weber State gets hit, it will be due to the actions of a couple of players last year that got kicked off the team. And if Jacksonville State gets hit, it will be because they made a big splash to get Perrilloux - despite the fact that he hasn't had any public issues since becoming a Gamecock.

All three "death penalties" will have been imposed despite demonstrated progress in the APR from year to year in the case of UT Chattanooga and Weber State - despite monumental financial difficulties. (I can't speak for Jacksonville State's APR levels, but there doesn't seem to have been any noticeable problems there last year.)

No FBS school will feel this sort of pain. Now or ever.

[bison137]

I disagree. These are not schools that just had a few problems. With the incredibly awful APR's that they have had, it is obvious that things have been rotten to the core in these programs for at least a few years:

1. The so-called improvement made by the schools has brought them from incredibly bad up to just bad. With 925 being the "passing" score, Weber - even facing major sanctions - is still below a passing grade just for this year's players. (And their numbers are very suspicious btw.) Chatanooga just barely eked above that minimal standard for this one year. Facing sanctions, they should have gone all out to achieve a respectable one-year APR - which might have given them a case to take to the NCAA.

2. Weber is either misstating their current APR or they misstated last year's cumulative APR. Last year their 3-year average APR was 872. This year their 4-year APR FELL to 853. Clearly it is impossible for the cumulative APR to fall, unless the APR for the most recent year was well BELOW 853 - or unless their APR last year was really much lower than they reported at the time. In any case, with numbers that low a good case could be made for extremely severe sanctions.

3. To give you an idea how bad an 853 APR is, here is one scenario. Assume a school has 80 athletes receiving sports-related aid. If 48 of them leave the school in good academic standing in May, the school's APR for that year alone would be about 853. Clearly 48+ players did not leave the program in one year - so that means a very large number left in bad academic standing. A lot more than just the suspensions.

4. However it is actually a lot worse than the above, since Weber's 853 is a FOUR-YEAR AVERAGE. To get a 4-year score that low is not simply a function of transfers/suspensions. Here is one scenario to get there with an average of 80 players. During Year 1, assume 4 players flunk out in December and another 10 flunk out in May, with 12 more transfers in good standing. That gives you an APR of 853. Then assume at the end of Year 2, another 14 players flunk out and another 12 transfer in good standing. That's another 853. Then do it for two more years and your 4-year average is 853. So if the school was able to sustain a pool of 80 players for the four years, then they would have had 56 players flunk out and 48 transfer out. This is just one hypothetical, of course, and their real numbers would be different - but not better.

5. Both of these schools clearly made little or no real attempt to correct any of the rampant problems until recently. What were they doing the first three years? And what example does it give to other problem schools if the NCAA sends out a message that it's OK to totally ignore academics for three years and then make a minimal effort in the fourth year?

[JMU Newbill]

if the glove fits....

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I disagree. These are not schools that just had a few problems. With the incredibly awful APR's that they have had, it is obvious that things have been rotten to the core in these programs for at least a few years...

Your post makes it abundantly clear that I need to put a new column up on CSN detailing exactly (IMO) what is going on. Suffice it to say that I don't believe these schools to be "rotten to the core".

Aren't you the least bit curious as to why Weber State, UT Chattanooga and Jacksonville State are put out there as a "rotten to the core" athletic programs - when Indiana basketball got exceptions as recently as 2007, just a month before Kelvin Samson admitted to massive NCAA violations?

[Appinator]

Your post makes it abundantly clear that I need to put a new column up on CSN detailing exactly (IMO) what is going on. Suffice it to say that I don't believe these schools to be "rotten to the core".

Aren't you the least bit curious as to why Weber State, UT Chattanooga and Jacksonville State are put out there as a "rotten to the core" athletic programs - when Indiana basketball got exceptions as recently as 2007, just a month before Kelvin Samson admitted to massive NCAA violations?

I think your exactly right. The double standards are staggering.

I wasn't trying to drag these schools through the mud, I just think there are some larger possible implications of the NCAAs actions that they might initially be too short sided to see.

On the other hand, it is possible for a school to take the correct path. I think Mississippi State is a good example. While Croom had a hard time winning games, he turned that program around after a much more drastic scholarship cut. It is possible for these schools to make things right in the classroom, it might just result in a lot more "Ls" than "Ws".

[bpcats]

There is somewhat a double standard when the NCAA evaluates FBS vs FCS schools when it comes to the APR. When the NCAA hands out penalties they appear to take into account the schools ability establish programs to help the student athlete graduate. The University of Oklahoma only graduates 40% of its football players but there is never a mention of them getting into trouble in regards to the APR. The APR also discourages bringing in transfers that are a quick fix to a teams success without evaluating the players ability to graduate on time

The APR is a four year rolling average and is tough to improve. Montana State is basically in the same boat as Weber. MSU invited in the NCAA to help come up with ideas a couple of years ago to help us with this issue. Since then MSU has established and funded a few programs to help the student athletes. It also played a big factor in the changing coaches at the university. I believe after this spring MSU should be out of the woods in regards to the APR but it is a tough ordeal to overcome.

Weber may have a longer ways to go. Both schools are limited to around 57 scholarships for their football teams.

[bison137]

Your post makes it abundantly clear that I need to put a new column up on CSN detailing exactly (IMO) what is going on. Suffice it to say that I don't believe these schools to be "rotten to the core".

Aren't you the least bit curious as to why Weber State, UT Chattanooga and Jacksonville State are put out there as a "rotten to the core" athletic programs - when Indiana basketball got exceptions as recently as 2007, just a month before Kelvin Samson admitted to massive NCAA violations?



I think virtually any school that has an APR as woefully low as these schools had an incredible lack of interest in academics for a long time. Both schools had terrible APR's in their third year and still had poor ones in their fourth year. As I pointed out in my post, a school has to have dozens of players flunking out for a long time to get to a four-year APR around 850.

This does not mean I don't think there are other athletic programs rotten to the core as well. There are many others and I hope they all get sanctions.

I think you are confusing apples and oranges when you bring in Kelvin Sampson. Yes, he is an unethical cheater - but that has nothing to do with Indiana's APR. If it was 990, they still would have deserved sanctions for his actions. Actually, however, Indiana's APR is far better than that of Chatanooga and Weber State. They are at 899, which is right at the cut line for sanctions if they didn't have anyone flunk out. This compares to APR's just above 850 at Chatanooga and Weber State. That is a HUGE difference.