2009 Weber Sked - Any Better?!??

[Native]

Here is the unofficial 2009 Weber State Football schedule, perhaps the best FCS championship caliber schedule in the country, with two FBS opponents, two top 10 foes, and a fifth top 20 opponent:

Sep 5: @ Wyoming
Sep 12: @ Colorado State
Sep 19: ISU
Sep 26: @ PSU
Oct 3: MSU
Oct 10: @ EWU
Oct 17: SAC
Oct 24: @ UNC
Oct 31: @ UM
Nov 7: OPEN
Nov 14: NAU
Nov 21: Cal Poly

All these games are winnable for Weber State, but playing Montana, Colorado State, and Wyoming on the road will be very difficult.

IMO, the most difficult games, grouped in order of difficulty, will be:

1. Montana
Colorado State (tie)
3. Cal Poly
Eastern Washington, Wyoming (tie)
6. Montana State
Northern Arizona (tie)
8. Sac State
9. Portland State
10. Northern Colorado
11. Idaho State

[MikeyGriz]

What good is this schedule going to do you if you can't play in the postseason?

The NCAA is preparing to deliver on an unprecedented threat to hand down postseason bans because of academic deficiencies, a prospect it says is facing as many as nine teams at eight Division I schools. All are saddled with low Academic Progress Rates (APRs), which measure player retention and progress toward graduation. And all are seeking waivers to forestall the penalties. Five of the teams have seen requests initially rejected, their hopes hanging on face-to-face hearings beginning in Indianapolis in 10 days or subsequent appeals to the NCAA Division I Board of Directors. Also needing waivers, according to officials at their respective schools, are Weber State's playoff-quarterfinal football team... http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/other/2009-02-05-ncaa-academics_N.htm

[dgreco]

Wyoming is a good team. They had a decent year last year, but I seem them improving. I would put them at the top.

[PaladinFan]

No offense friend, but I only see one team on there I consider a contender year in year out.

[I Bleed Purple]

What good is this schedule going to do you if you can't play in the postseason?

The NCAA is preparing to deliver on an unprecedented threat to hand down postseason bans because of academic deficiencies, a prospect it says is facing as many as nine teams at eight Division I schools. All are saddled with low Academic Progress Rates (APRs), which measure player retention and progress toward graduation. And all are seeking waivers to forestall the penalties. Five of the teams have seen requests initially rejected, their hopes hanging on face-to-face hearings beginning in Indianapolis in 10 days or subsequent appeals to the NCAA Division I Board of Directors. Also needing waivers, according to officials at their respective schools, are Weber State's playoff-quarterfinal football team... http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/other/2009-02-05-ncaa-academics_N.htm

http://www.standard.net/live/sports/163700/

Plus, the APR is comprised of two numbers, one based on current, short term scores, and the other on long term scores, which takes time to build up after taking a dive. Weber's short term number, at least as McBride says, is sufficiently high, it's the other number that is progressing up, but still under the accepted line.

[Native]

What good is this schedule going to do you if you can't play in the postseason?

The NCAA is preparing to deliver on an unprecedented threat ...[/url]

What kind of team rolls over and plays dead when they get a penalty? The NCAA process will move forward and I hope the lads do their best in class and on the field no matter what the NCAA decides. I hold the same aspiration for every college athlete in every sport.

Do athletes who quit when hard times come really deserve to be in the game?

[TexasTerror]

Cal Poly is nice -- but two FBS? That makes this a decent schedule? Not impressed. There's teams with better slates than this.

[Native]

No offense friend, but I only see one team on there I consider a contender year in year out.

No offense taken, Paladin, but Cal Poly and Eastern Washington are top 20 caliber FCS, and FBS Colorado State and Wyoming play at the same level or higher.

That's five top-20 equivalent opponents for Weber State.

How many top 20 FCS teams have a significantly tougher schedule in 2009?

[Syntax Error]

No offense taken, Paladin, but Cal Poly and Eastern Washington are top 20 caliber FCS, and FBS Colorado State and Wyoming play at the same level or higher.
That's five top-20 equivalent opponents for Weber State. Maybe CP and EWU are not top 20 teams in 2009. 2 pretty good chances to lose at FBS makes this a tough schedule to make the playoffs. But if you can get the AQ then no problem.

[crunifan]

In my honest opinion, I do not see Weber State going to the playoffs next year due to that schedule.

[slostang]

Maybe CP and EWU are not top 20 teams in 2009. 2 pretty good chances to lose at FBS makes this a tough schedule to make the playoffs. But if you can get the AQ then no problem.

Cal Poly most likely will not be a top 20 team to start the year. They lose to many great players on offense and they have a new coach. That being said, coach Ellerson did not leave the cupboard empty. If Cal Poly can find a good replacement for Dally, I think they have a chance to be a top 20 team by the end of the season.

[Native]

Maybe CP and EWU are not top 20 teams in 2009. 2 pretty good chances to lose at FBS makes this a tough schedule to make the playoffs. But if you can get the AQ then no problem.

Points taken, but Top 10 is a big deal. Montana and Colorado State certainly count at that level.

Outside of the CAA, not many teams play a schedule with more than two Top 10 (or even Top 20) opponents. The CAA is tough not only because of the high number of Top 10 teams, but also because the conference bottom feeders are not as weak as the bottom feeders of the other conferences, Big Sky, Missouri Valley, and SOCON included.

I think it's fair to leave EWU and Cal Poly in the Top 20/30 range until we see how they play for the first few games next season. Cal Poly may or may not be able to regroup from their coaching and player losses, but I expect big things from EWU next season.

I admit that Top 20 or Top 30 is not as big a deal as Top 10, as there is a significant quality cut below the Top 10 or 15. But Top 20/30 is a very big deal compared to the balance of FCS teams, as there is another significant drop off somewhere between 20 and 30.

Even if Weber gets a waiver from the NCAA, I agree that it will be tough to go to the playoffs if WSU drops their first two (FBS) games, but the Wildcats should be favored going into Wyoming, and should be about even going into Colorado State.

At this early stage, the odds are better than even that Weber will begin conference play 1-1, and finish the season 8-3 or better.

[Native]

Cal Poly most likely will not be a top 20 team to start the year. They lose to many great players on offense and they have a new coach. That being said, coach Ellerson did not leave the cupboard empty. If Cal Poly can find a good replacement for Dally, I think they have a chance to be a top 20 team by the end of the season.

Coach McBride thinks so, too. He is not too happy about playing Cal Poly so late in the season.

[Native]

Cal Poly is nice -- but two FBS? That makes this a decent schedule? Not impressed. There's teams with better slates than this.

Yes, TTerror, perhaps, but not many.

Care to name a few slates that you had in mind?

C'mon! Outside of the CAA, what schedules impress you?

[slostang]

Coach McBride thinks so, too. He is not too happy about playing Cal Poly so late in the season.

I know how he feels. We went from a game with Idaho State who I think is improving but coming off a one win season to a Weber State team that returns one of the best QB and RB in the FCS. That is definately trading up.

[Native]

In my honest opinion, I do not see Weber State going to the playoffs next year due to that schedule.

If by that you mean that you expect us to lose to our four toughest opponents, Crunifan, I guess I would agree.

But I don't expect to lose that many games! xsmiley_wix

[PaladinFan]

No offense taken, Paladin, but Cal Poly and Eastern Washington are top 20 caliber FCS, and FBS Colorado State and Wyoming play at the same level or higher.

That's five top-20 equivalent opponents for Weber State.

How many top 20 FCS teams have a significantly tougher schedule in 2009?

EWU and Cal Poly are good programs, but they aren't the year in year out championship contenders.

Just off the top of my head, Furman's schedule (because I'm familiar) has the Paladins playing Delaware, GSU, App State, Elon, and Wofford all of which are top 20 programs as well as Auburn on the road. I'm guessing that the SoCon will have at least 4, probably five top 25 teams just in the conference at the start of the season.

I wasn't debating that Weber is lacking a tough schedule, it is. However, I just didn't think it was astronomically difficult. You can make an argument that the teams in the SoCon and CAA will go through the ringer each and every week.

[Native]

EWU and Cal Poly are good programs, but they aren't the year in year out championship contenders.

Just off the top of my head, Furman's schedule (because I'm familiar) has the Paladins playing Delaware, GSU, App State, Elon, and Wofford all of which are top 20 programs as well as Auburn on the road. I'm guessing that the SoCon will have at least 4, probably five top 25 teams just in the conference at the start of the season.

I wasn't debating that Weber is lacking a tough schedule, it is. However, I just didn't think it was astronomically difficult. You can make an argument that the teams in the SoCon and CAA will go through the ringer each and every week.

Points well taken, PaladinFan! Agreed that Furman's schedule looks mighty tough.

I also agree that Weber's schedule is not astronomically difficult. I especially like it because the FBS money games are tough but winnable, and the third OOC game is against a credible FCS opponent instead of D2. I think Weber's 2009 schedule is ideal for a competitive program, as are most CAA and many SoCon schedules.

I would argue that the Big Sky's mid-tier, Top-25-candidate teams (Eastern Washington, Montana State, Northern Arizona) are at about the same playing level as the SoCon mid-tier, Top-25-candidate teams (Furman, Georgia Southern, Samford).

Really too bad that there are no out of conference games between Big Sky and SoCon (or Missouri Valley, Southland, CAA...), and that the regionalization of the playoffs precludes many cross country rivalries...

P.S. I had to be just a little provocative in my original post to get some responses. xsmiley_wix Thank you. xthumbsupx

[PaladinFan]

Points well taken, PaladinFan! Agreed that Furman's schedule looks mighty tough.

I also agree that Weber's schedule is not astronomically difficult. I especially like it because the FBS money games are tough but winnable, and the third OOC game is against a credible FCS opponent instead of D2. I think Weber's 2009 schedule is ideal for a competitive program, as are most CAA and many SoCon schedules.

I would argue that the Big Sky's mid-tier, Top-25-candidate teams (Eastern Washington, Montana State, Northern Arizona) are at about the same playing level as the SoCon mid-tier, Top-25-candidate teams (Furman, Georgia Southern, Samford).

Really too bad that there are no out of conference games between Big Sky and SoCon (or Missouri Valley, Southland, CAA...), and that the regionalization of the playoffs precludes many cross country rivalries...
P.S. I had to be just a little provocative in my original post to get some responses. xsmiley_wix Thank you. xthumbsupx

Yes, but we have more championships :)

I'd love to see some games between the big sky and SoCon. I used to spend a lot of time in Northern Idaho and would love an excuse to try to get back out there. You people just decided to live too durn far away.

[Big Al]

...but also because the conference bottom feeders are not as weak as the bottom feeders of the other conferences, Big Sky, Missouri Valley, and SOCON included.

!

I don't know the Southern Conference, so I can't address them, but the Big Sky is no stronger or weaker than the Missouri Valley. I know Indiana State is badness of epic proportions, but Northern Colorado and Idaho State really stunk it up last year, as well.

[Ronbo]

Points taken, but Top 10 is a big deal. Montana and Colorado State certainly count at that level.

Outside of the CAA, not many teams play a schedule with more than two Top 10 (or even Top 20) opponents. The CAA is tough not only because of the high number of Top 10 teams, but also because the conference bottom feeders are not as weak as the bottom feeders of the other conferences, Big Sky, Missouri Valley, and SOCON included.

I think it's fair to leave EWU and Cal Poly in the Top 20/30 range until we see how they play for the first few games next season. Cal Poly may or may not be able to regroup from their coaching and player losses, but I expect big things from EWU next season.

I admit that Top 20 or Top 30 is not as big a deal as Top 10, as there is a significant quality cut below the Top 10 or 15. But Top 20/30 is a very big deal compared to the balance of FCS teams, as there is another significant drop off somewhere between 20 and 30.

Even if Weber gets a waiver from the NCAA, I agree that it will be tough to go to the playoffs if WSU drops their first two (FBS) games, but the Wildcats should be favored going into Wyoming, and should be about even going into Colorado State.

At this early stage, the odds are better than even that Weber will begin conference play 1-1, and finish the season 8-3 or better.

I think you have a great schedule there guys.

Northern Arizona- Look out, they lost very little and had a good recuiting class.

Montana State will be better in 2009.

Eastern Washington came on strong at the end of 2008 and gets back all their stars.

Sac. State is on the rise. That JC Coach they hired a couple years ago is building a good team. He's a good coach.

Cal Poly is 1-2 players stepping up away from being right back in the top 10.

Wyoming will be improved and so will CSU. I believe Wyoming has never lost to a FCS team.

[Native]

!

I don't know the Southern Conference, so I can't address them, but the Big Sky is no stronger or weaker than the Missouri Valley. I know Indiana State is badness of epic proportions, but Northern Colorado and Idaho State really stunk it up last year, as well.

Concur, Big Al. I see CAA at the top, followed by SoCon, with Big Sky and MV in the next group, followed bu Southland and Big South.

[Green26]

This looks like a very difficult schedule. I doubt that any I-AA school has a tougher non-conference schedule, with 2 I-A's and Cal Poly (a top 10 team in '08).

Combined with the Big Sky being the 2nd rated conference in '08 (according to the GPI and the Massey ratings), I can't imagine that there are many, if any, tougher schedules.

I agree that this schedule will likely keep Weber out of the playoffs, unless it can win the conference. Two I-A's. Tough road games. Cal Poly at the end of the season, after it's had plenty of time to re-tool and adapt to new coaches. Tough Big Sky competition. Montana on the road. No easy games, except perhaps the bottom couple teams in the conference.

[Green26]

BigAl, you may want to do some checking on the conference ratings, before you post such incorrect information.

The Big Sky was the 2nd rated conference by the GPI and the Massey ratings in '08, and 3rd by the Sagarin ratings.

The Missouri Valley was rated way below the Big Sky in '08, and is rated below the Big Sky in the past 10-year period.

[89Hen]

Never been a fan of two I-A's in one year. xsmhx

[Ronbo]

We'll see more of this as schools scramble to cover rising costs. As ISU's AD said it was two FBS games or they were facing dropping football.

[OL FU]

What good is this schedule going to do you if you can't play in the postseason?

The NCAA is preparing to deliver on an unprecedented threat to hand down postseason bans because of academic deficiencies, a prospect it says is facing as many as nine teams at eight Division I schools. All are saddled with low Academic Progress Rates (APRs), which measure player retention and progress toward graduation. And all are seeking waivers to forestall the penalties. Five of the teams have seen requests initially rejected, their hopes hanging on face-to-face hearings beginning in Indianapolis in 10 days or subsequent appeals to the NCAA Division I Board of Directors. Also needing waivers, according to officials at their respective schools, are Weber State's playoff-quarterfinal football team... http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/other/2009-02-05-ncaa-academics_N.htm



Officials at four other schools acknowledge they're seeking waivers to avert postseason bans: Jacksonville State, Chattanooga and Weber State (all football) and Centenary (men's basketball and baseball). The Texas Southern men's tennis team also faces a ban, though it's moot; the school suspended the program for two years while going through a 2008 NCAA infractions case.

Sorry to hijack but there were many discussions and disappointments that JSU was not invited into the SoCon. I would suggest this may have been one of the many reasons.


Now back on track, Three OOC games against, Cal-poly and two FBS is about as tough as you could get for OOC scheduling. I suppose one could argue the toughness of the FBS teams, but it looks like a good fun and tough schedule.

[89Hen]

We'll see more of this as schools scramble to cover rising costs. As ISU's AD said it was two FBS games or they were facing dropping football.
But don't more away games and more losses kind of make it hard to stop the downward spiral of interest? xeyebrowx

[Big Al]

BigAl, you may want to do some checking on the conference ratings, before you post such incorrect information.

The Big Sky was the 2nd rated conference by the GPI and the Massey ratings in '08, and 3rd by the Sagarin ratings.

The Missouri Valley was rated way below the Big Sky in '08, and is rated below the Big Sky in the past 10-year period.

Ah yes, the holy Massey & Sagarin ratings -- the ultimate example of the transitive property at work.

Again, I stand behind my assertion that the Big Sky's bottom-feeders are no better or worse than the MVFC bottom-feeders. Bad is bad is bad is bad.

Period.

Take the bottom 3 in each conference and compare their wins for the last season and then tell me -- with a straight face, mind you -- that any of them are better (less worse?) than the others.

[Green26]

BigAl, below is what you posted and what I responded to. By itself, it doesn't say anything about bottom feeders. If you were only talking about bottom feeders, then I have no comment on the subject. I have no idea who had the worst or best bottom feeders, nor do I care. And, you're right, ISU in particular was awful last year, and UNC was still fairly weak (but finally capable of knocking off someone).

"I don't know the Southern Conference, so I can't address them, but the Big Sky is no stronger or weaker than the Missouri Valley."

[Native]

But don't more away games and more losses kind of make it hard to stop the downward spiral of interest? xeyebrowx

Who the heck says we're going to lose?

[Native]

Ah yes, the holy Massey & Sagarin ratings -- the ultimate example of the transitive property at work.

Again, I stand behind my assertion that the Big Sky's bottom-feeders are no better or worse than the MVFC bottom-feeders. Bad is bad is bad is bad.

Period.

Take the bottom 3 in each conference and compare their wins for the last season and then tell me -- with a straight face, mind you -- that any of them are better (less worse?) than the others.

Hey, Big Al, I find the Massey and Sagarin ratings useful tools, not Gospel.

Although I agree with my Big Sky brethren that Big Sky was pretty darn good last year (and consistently under-rated) I take your point about there not being all that much difference between the bottom feeders among several of the tougher conferences. Big Sky is on a roll for 2009, though. I expect one of the best non-conference records in the country.

That said, Mac had one hell of a great recruiting year - both athletically AND academically (no one below "B-" GPA). The Wildcats will do very well in 2009. We did not lose as many key starters as did Montana, we stole a couple of HOT impact players from under the noses of our in-state I-A competition, and we return SEVEN first team All-Big Sky performers - four on offense and three on defense.

[Green26]

So the Weber fullback who is destined for the NFL was not a "key starter"?

I think your running back is going to miss his fullback next season.

[bpcats]

Nice schedule for Weber. While Weber's offense should be able to roll again with Higgins, Toone, and Smith all coming back, I believe that Weber will struggle a little bit early in the season on defense. Weber is replacing their starting linebackers and a few defensive lineman. It may take a few games for the defense to gel.

Next year the Big Sky will be as tough as ever. The Griz and NAU will be the only teams breaking in new qb's but in both cases Selle and Herrick received a lot of playing time and should be ready to go.

[89Hen]

Who the heck says we're going to lose?
The quote was about Idaho State, but you will lose both too (I will be rooting for you though). xpeacex

[SeattleGriz]

Cal Poly is nice -- but two FBS? That makes this a decent schedule? Not impressed. There's teams with better slates than this.

Weber isn't close to any other decent teams that will play them. I am sure Weber wishes they could play all but one game in either one of two states like SHSU (TX and LA), but due to geography, they don't have that luxury.

Amazing how many times this needs to be said.

[JALMOND]

I've enjoyed the comments on Weber's schedule (pretty daunting). However, I think it is a stretch that the game at Portland could be considered the third easiest game of the season. Last year, the only game we lost at home was to Montana. If you want to overlook us, that is quite alright. We don't want to hear any excuses, though.

[Native]

I've enjoyed the comments on Weber's schedule (pretty daunting). However, I think it is a stretch that the game at Portland could be considered the third easiest game of the season. Last year, the only game we lost at home was to Montana. If you want to overlook us, that is quite alright. We don't want to hear any excuses, though.

You could be right, JALMOND! After all, "Any Given Saturday!..."

But I sure hope the Wildcats don't overlook Portland State!

However, the lads played many of their their best games on the road in 2008. (Montana State, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly...) Their weakest games were at home against Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington. I would not be surprised to see the same strength in their 2009 road games.

Good luck!

[Native]

Weber isn't close to any other decent teams that will play them. I am sure Weber wishes they could play all but one game in either one of two states like SHSU (TX and LA), but due to geography, they don't have that luxury.

Amazing how many times this needs to be said.

Thanks for the note, SeattleGriz!

I am not taking Texas Terror too seriously until he or she points out exactly which FCS schedules outside of the CAA are more impressive.

[Native]

So the Weber fullback who is destined for the NFL was not a "key starter"?

I think your running back is going to miss his fullback next season.

Ya got me, Green26! xrolleyesx

But Mac is a gifted recruiter. The replacement at fullback is pretty darn good:

VAINGAMALIE (Vai) TAFUNA is a 6-1, 240 Junior transfer from Mesa College in Arizona who has already enrolled at Weber for the spring semester. According to our SID, he " ... Brings the same physical presence to the fullback spot as did Marcus Mailei who was a starter their for the past four season for the Wildcats. ... Helped the Thunderbirds to the 2007 Valley of the Sun Bowl championship and a number eight ranking in the NJCAA..."

http://www.weberstatesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=39328&SPID=3468&temp_site=NO&DB_OEM_ID=8600&ATCLID=3663047

P.S. ...Mailei may not make the first round of the draft... xsmiley_wix

[Native]

So the Weber fullback who is destined for the NFL was not a "key starter"?

I think your running back is going to miss his fullback next season.

Marcus Mailei is indeed listed as a participant in the Feb 18-24 NFL combine. I could not find his performance stats, but here is some of the NFLdraftscout analysis:

"...A thumper inside who often puts his target to the ground. Stout build throughout his body. Explodes out of a very low stance, and can get to full power even though he lines up a yard closer to the line than most fullbacks. Also goes in motion before the snap to get outside faster. Stays low, and brings his hips and keeps his legs moving when making contact in the hole. Always finds someone to hit. Sustains blocks through the whistle, if needed. Has a good punch and extends his arms to hold off ends in pass protection or linebackers if blocking past the line of scrimmage. Soft hands in the flat and has some open-field agility. Could handle short-yardage running responsibilities..."

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/marcus-mailei?id=71377

[Native]

Nice schedule for Weber. While Weber's offense should be able to roll again with Higgins, Toone, and Smith all coming back, I believe that Weber will struggle a little bit early in the season on defense. Weber is replacing their starting linebackers and a few defensive lineman. It may take a few games for the defense to gel.

Next year the Big Sky will be as tough as ever. The Griz and NAU will be the only teams breaking in new qb's but in both cases Selle and Herrick received a lot of playing time and should be ready to go.

Big Sky looks tough indeed for 2009!

Weber's linebackers will be a question mark, although the 2009 recruits look full of potential.

I don't think the WSU D-Line will be quite so much of a problem. Despite key graduation losses, a lot of 2009 returnees got significant playing time in 2008:
Kevin Linehan (All-American, All-Big Sky DE) returns. Ryan Eastman, Joe Larson, Brighton Barkdull and Taylor Caldwell combined for 62 total tackles in reserve roles on the defensive line.