first round predictions...

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

UNH: 38
Colgate: 10

Colgate isn't too bad, but UNH is good.

Northern Iowa: 35
Eastern Washington: 24

After seeing how UNI fought their way through the tough gateway schedule, I like them. They could very well upset New Hampshire and beat the winner of the GSU/Montana/Texas St. trio

Montana: 31
Cal Poly: 10

I think most of us will agree that UM will beat Cal Poly.

GSU: 45
Texas State: 35

We overwhelm them on offense. GSU fans just hope that we don't have too many turnovers. Definitly not guaranteeing a win here.

Appalachian State: 48
Laugheyette: 10

I predict this will be the most lop-sided win of all of them

Southern Illinois: 14
Eastern Illinois: 6

Furman: 16
Nichols State: 7

Go Socon!!

Richmond: 31
Hampton: 28

Not that Hampton is bad, but URI is tough. Hampton is unfortunate to have to play them in the playoffs.

[FlyYtown]

Appalachian State: 48
Laugheyette: 10


Appy State 52
Lafayette 7

Now If the team that got snubbed was in appy still be the fav but at least it be a game... :mad: :mad:

[ASU Kep]

I agree. I was lookin forward to you guys, if that makes you feel any better.

[UMclassof2002]

Montana: 31
Cal Poly: 10

I think most of us will agree that UM will beat Cal Poly.




Until yesterday I would've agreed. Now I can only hope. Our offense is abysmal.

[Gil Dobie]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH
UNI vs EWU - UNI
Montana vs Cal Poly - Cal Poly (Great West Biased)
GSU vs Texas State - GSU
Appalachian State vs Lafeyette - ASU
Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - SIU
Furman vs Nichols State - Nichols State
Richmond vs Hampton - Hampton

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Until yesterday I would've agreed. Now I can only hope. Our offense is abysmal.

You have one bad game and you browbeat your O? Perhaps you just aren't giving the cat D any credit.

[ChickenMan]

If Lafayette is anything like the team I saw in last year's 1st round vs UD... I expect that the game may be closer than many here expect. Lafayette was well coached and played hard... they didn't make mistakes and gave UD all they wanted. I know that was then and this is now... but the Leopards may be able to keep it closer than expected. Some here apparently have very short memories... as it's been proven before... the top of the Patriot League is tougher than most I-AA fans think.

[Eagles_Cliff]

With the Exception of Appy getting a first round bye, I think the other games should be good matches. Of course, that means Lafayette will beat App and the other games will be blow outs :p

Truthfully, I think the favorites should be all the home teams except EIU.

[Pard94]

If Lafayette is anything like the team I saw in last year's 1st round vs UD... I expect that the game may be closer than many here expect. Lafayette was a well coached and played hard... they didn't make mistakes and gave UD all they wanted. I know that was then and this is now... but the Leopards may be able to keep it closer than expected. Some here apparently have very short memories... as it's been proven before... the top of the Patriot League is tougher than most I-AA fans think.

Holy Crap! I can't believe my eyes. Thanks for the very tough to come by PL Props. I would be curious to have seen the predictions if it was Lehigh that was playing App. State. Probably would have been considered a closer match. Yet, Lafayette beats Lehigh and still we can't hang...whatever, we'll see.

[GrizSweeper]

You have one bad game and you browbeat your O? Perhaps you just aren't giving the cat D any credit.
It's been 3 weeks that our offense just hasn't put up anything

[Screamin_Eagle174]

You have one bad game and you browbeat your O? Perhaps you just aren't giving the cat D any credit.
One? Haha, more like FOUR! In the three games prior, Montana didn't get a single offensive TD- their defense and special teams were carrying them. Cal Poly still held their own at their last meeting at Wash-Griz.

Unless Bergquist and his offense can over-turn their capsizing, their's a pretty good chance Montana will be sunk before the semis. Defense can't be a life preserver forever...

[catamount man]

1st round predictions
- App.State over Lafayette
- Furman over Nicholls State
- GSU over Tx State (inacloseone)
- Montana over Cal Poly
- Hampton over Richmond
- EWU over NIU
- UNH over Colgate
- SIU over EIU

Good luck to all 16 contenders to the TRUE national championship!
GO CATAMOUNTS!!!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The EWU v UNI game should be intense. UNI is a great team, but you can't count out Eastern especially after what happened last year in Carbondale. We've played in two domes so far this year, and we also came out with a win in Missoula with 23,000+ raging fans, so I don't think either of those should be a factor. UNI might have the alltime advantage at 4-0 (2-0 in playoffs), but then again the last meeting was in 92 I believe. We'll see how the Panthers D can hold up against Erik Meyer. Expect to hear a lot of "Meyer to Kimble," "Meyer to Vijil," or "Ryan Cole on the carry." Then again, we have Joey Cwik on defense, so "Joey Cwik on the stop" shouldn't get old after a while either. It'll be a great game. Too bad I'll be in Seattle for the Seahawks~Giants game and won't be able to listen to it on the radio. :(

[RadMann]

I think that Lafayette is a decent squad and if App State takes them lightly, they may well lose. App should be the favorite though.

[slostang]

Montana: 31
Cal Poly: 10

I think most of us will agree that UM will beat Cal Poly.

.

I would be one that would not. Please inform me how you came to this conclusion. How closely have you followed Poly this year? Cal Poly did something Montana was not able to do this year, beat both Montana State and Eastern Washington. I am not saying that Poly is definately going to beat Montana, but we more than held our own earlier this year in a game we definately could have won. Most Montana fans will admit to being a little nervous about this one.

GSU is complaining about the pairings. Well an old coach of mine use to say that it didn't matter who you drew because you got to beat them all to get where we want to go.

[colgate13]

What Lafayette has going for them is defense. They shut down a Lehigh squad putting up something like 33+ a game. They held a good Colgate O too. They might only score 10 points, but they will keep the game closer than that. If they find a way to score 24, they win IMO.

Colgate's very similar but with a little less D and a little more O. For us, it's all about time of posession and turnovers. We don't turn the ball over, we're at least 10-1 and maybe 11-0. So if we hold on to the ball, I like our chances to be in this one. UNH hasn't shown much defense all year long. Ranked 88th and giving up something like 385 yards a game. They win by outscoring people. I hope Colgate learned its outscoring lesson against Lehigh. If so, look out. This will be a game.

[X-Factor]

UNH: 45
Colgate: 10



Northern Iowa: 35
Eastern Washington: 42


Montana: 31
Cal Poly: 20


GSU: 30
Texas State: 38

Appalachian State: 45
Laugheyette: 3


Southern Illinois: 35
Eastern Illinois: 10

Furman: 20
Nichols State: 38



Richmond: 31
Hampton: 14

[griz8791]

You have one bad game and you browbeat your O? Perhaps you just aren't giving the cat D any credit.

Unfortunately it's been more than one bad game of unimpressive offense. But the Cat D was impressive too.

[Pard4Life]

UNH: 45
Colgate: 10


Appalachian State: 45
Laugheyette: 3




Ha ha, wow I'm laughing.. this is hysterical, I'm loving it.. thanks for the sympathetic three points. Hey how about we just sit home and simulate this game on a video game? Why make the trip? Everyone thinks we are stepping in front of a freight train. That may be so, but we just might be that cement wall. The folks in Newark thought the same last year, and they left Raymond Field wiping the sweat off their brows. Lafayette is in this field for a reason ladies and gentlemen, we can play defense, and we are tough. App St. is a powerful team and I expect them to bring the house, but you cannot ignore that Lafayette will do the same. If App St. wins, it's because we cannot get moving on offense. If Lafayette wins, it will be no more than seven and our D plays like it has all year. Can't wait for the game.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Not that I wouldn't be ok with Cal Poly beating UM. We could very well get a home game with Cal Poly.

[Cincy App]

Many blowout loss predictions for the Patriot League teams. I'll be the first to say that I think the 2nd division of the PL is awful. However, the first division has been very competitive in recent playoff games and in regular season games against the A-10. I wouldn't favor either Colgate or Lafayette on Saturday but it will surprise me if both games (or either game) are blowouts. So... good luck Colgate!

[Saint3333]

I think and hope ASU will win, but I'm not predicting more than a 10-14 point win. The players aren't taking anyone lightly and will come out fired up at the ROCK. I hope we can get 12-15K to the game, which is hard to do the weekend after Thanksgiving.

[AndrewFU21]

Furman: 16
Nichols State: 7


I'd like to hear how you think how anyone in the field of 16 could hold Furman to 16 points, or likewise how Furman could hold anyone in the field to just seven.

[bcrawf]

UNH 31
Colgate 14

UNI 42
EWU 27

Montana 9
Cal Poly 10

Texas St. 34
GSU 37

Hampton 21
Richmond 27

Furman 34
Nicholls St. 27

SIU 49
EIU 17

App St. 42
Lafayette 14

[golionsgo]

UNH: 38
Colgate: 10

Colgate isn't too bad, but UNH is good.

Northern Iowa: 35
Eastern Washington: 24

After seeing how UNI fought their way through the tough gateway schedule, I like them. They could very well upset New Hampshire and beat the winner of the GSU/Montana/Texas St. trio

Montana: 31
Cal Poly: 10

I think most of us will agree that UM will beat Cal Poly.

GSU: 45
Texas State: 35

We overwhelm them on offense. GSU fans just hope that we don't have too many turnovers. Definitly not guaranteeing a win here.

Appalachian State: 48
Laugheyette: 10

I predict this will be the most lop-sided win of all of them

Southern Illinois: 14
Eastern Illinois: 6

Furman: 16
Nichols State: 7

Go Socon!!

Richmond: 31
Hampton: 28

Not that Hampton is bad, but URI is tough. Hampton is unfortunate to have to play them in the playoffs.


If Furman holds Nicholls State to 7 points, I'll spring for all your Christmas presents this year.

[swaghook]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH

Northern Iowa vs Eastern Washington - Northern Iowa

Montana vs Cal Poly - Cal Poly

GSU vs Texas State - GSU

Appalachian State vs Lafayette - Appalachian State

Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - Eastern Illinois

Furman vs Nichols State - Nichols State

Richmond vs Hampton - Richmond

[Purple Knight]

If Furman holds Nicholls State to 7 points, I'll spring for all your Christmas presents this year.

If they hold us to 16, I will cover half of the bet.

[Eaglegus2]

If they hold us to 16, I will cover half of the bet.

Hey PK.........r u J----?

If so, where have you been? Thought you would have stopped by during the Furman game.

[TxState_GO_CATS!]

hmmm, let's see...

GSU lost to McNeese 23-20...Texas State beat McNeese 49-7
GSU allowed 42 pts to SDSU (55-42 win)...Texas State only allowed 12 (42-12 win).

Texas State's only home loss the last two seasons: Florida Atlantic. And the Bobcats have outscored opponents something like 240-90 this year alone at home...

We may have never been to the playoffs before, but I doubt we're scared.

Texas State's offense takes advantage of a somewhat suspect GSU defense (just based on the stats of our common opponents and going off what a few GSU posters have said) and win 35-21. GO CATS GO!

Southland 1
Southern 0

[blur2005]

Colgate 17 @ #1 New Hampshire 38
Eastern Washington 24 @ Northern Iowa 27
Cal Poly 17 @ Montana 24
Georgia Southern 24 @ #4 Texas State 35
Richmond 24 @ #3 Hampton 21
Nicholls State 28 @ Furman 35
Southern Illinois 17 @ Eastern Illinois 21
Lafayette 10 @ #2 Appalachian State 31

[Pantherpower]

Hey Blur2005,

Some of that JMU 2004 kharma would be much appreciated! :)

[gsugt1]

hmmm, let's see...

GSU lost to McNeese 23-20...Texas State beat McNeese 49-7
GSU allowed 42 pts to SDSU (55-42 win)...Texas State only allowed 12 (42-12 win).

Texas State's only home loss the last two seasons: Florida Atlantic. And the Bobcats have outscored opponents something like 240-90 this year alone at home...

We may have never been to the playoffs before, but I doubt we're scared.

Texas State's offense takes advantage of a somewhat suspect GSU defense (just based on the stats of our common opponents and going off what a few GSU posters have said) and win 35-21. GO CATS GO!

Southland 1
Southern 0

You might score some points on GSU but you haven't seen any team with our speed. I think it will be a 14 point GSU win. The team that lost to McNeese is long gone.

[matfu]

furman won't hold anyone in the playoffs to less than 21 points. they will have to outscore folks.

ga southern on a given day can beat anybody. so can app state and furman.

i think the southern conference teams will do well this year. time will tell.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

hmmm, let's see...

GSU lost to McNeese 23-20...Texas State beat McNeese 49-7
GSU allowed 42 pts to SDSU (55-42 win)...Texas State only allowed 12 (42-12 win).

Texas State's only home loss the last two seasons: Florida Atlantic. And the Bobcats have outscored opponents something like 240-90 this year alone at home...

We may have never been to the playoffs before, but I doubt we're scared.

Texas State's offense takes advantage of a somewhat suspect GSU defense (just based on the stats of our common opponents and going off what a few GSU posters have said) and win 35-21. GO CATS GO!

Southland 1
Southern 0

Our team is completely different than what we were at the beggining of the season. I seem to remember a 7 point thrashing of that juggernaut Division II delta state by you guys.

We beat Furman, of course, who is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country. We beat WCU 45-7, who beat Furman 41-21, gave Cincinatti all they could handle (and should have won), and we thrashed UTC 48-10, who gave both Furman and App St. decent games, and beat Jacksonville State.

As for our defense, well, we did a good job on Furman (kept them at 24 points). They got a rough start but they have gotten better and will be ready for you.

Two common opponents is not enough to make a good judgement, especially when one is the McNeese State game. Our new quarterbacks always struggle in our first couple of games. Back in '02 we lost two of the first three, but came within 3 points of going to Chattanooga.

[rcny46]

Not all mainstream predictions,but here goes:

UNH,Hampton,EWU,Cal Poly,SIU,Nichols St.,Appalachian St.,and TSU.

[REEM10]

Comming to the home by the Sea to get a win is not as easy as most are making it out to be. I would be more worried if we were goin to Richmond, but they have to come to HU.

[DaGriz]

UNI 42
EWU 27

You're going to need more than 42 to beat EWU and 27 by EWU might be what they have at the end of 1.


GSU: 45
Texas State: 35


We'll be pulling for that. If we win that might give us home field and the thought of playing a run offense would be nice.


I think most of us will agree that UM will beat Cal Poly.

Most of us are a little nervous about that game. It's hard to beat the same team twice in a year.

[Chi Panther]

You're going to need more than 42 to beat EWU and 27 by EWU might be what they have at the end of 1.



We'll be pulling for that. If we win that might give us home field and the thought of playing a run offense would be nice.



Most of us are a little nervous about that game. It's hard to beat the same team twice in a year.

EWU very well could win....its gonna be a great game.....but please explain your logic here.......

2005 Schedule
DATE OPPONENT RESULT/TIME
09/03 at San Jose St L 35-24
09/17 W Oregon W 48-7
09/24 at Idaho St L 34-30
10/01 Portland St W 42-24
10/08 at N Arizona W 42-14
10/15 at Montana W 34-20
10/22 Weber St L 28-23
10/29 at Sac St W 45-17
11/05 at Cal Poly L 40-35
11/12 Montana St W 35-14
11/19 UC Davis W 24-7

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

You're going to need more than 42 to beat EWU and 27 by EWU might be what they have at the end of 1.



We'll be pulling for that. If we win that might give us home field and the thought of playing a run offense would be nice.



Most of us are a little nervous about that game. It's hard to beat the same team twice in a year.

Are you saying that you think our offense will be easy?? I like the thought of the game because it is one that doesn't occur often enough, but then again, Washington-Grizzly is a tough place to play and I want to win the NC...

[DaGriz]

Are you saying that you think our offense will be easy??

No, I'm saying we can't stop the pass and you are traditionally a run first team.

[DaGriz]

EWU very well could win....its gonna be a great game.....but please explain your logic here.......

10/08 at N Arizona W 42-14

Dome game, they scored 42.

[lugo02]

I love how everyone thinks that both Lafayette and Colgate will get blown out. Same **** just a different year. Last year when Lehigh got in we heard the same **** about how JMU will blow us out.
We'll see what happens on Saturday.

[VictorG]

No, I'm saying we can't stop the pass and you are traditionally a run first team.

Plus the fact that "IF" the game was to end up in Missoula, it could very well be 15 degrees and snowing! :) :)

Or 50 and sunny but I'd hope for 15 and snowing! :)

[youwouldno]

Colgate 21
(1) UNH 35


I actually think Colgate has a better chance than Lafayette. UNH's defense has been iffy, so maybe with some turnovers Colgate could make it a game.

Lafayette 14
(2) App St 31

Lafayette is a team I think highly of, but the reality is that App St. is just a lot better. In Boone... I see App winning by a comfortable, but not huge margin.

Richmond 38
(3) Hampton 27

Richmond is better than anyone Hampton has played. Tutt is too good for Hampton to contain.

GSU 30
(4) TX St 24

Texas St is a good team, but they lost to Nicholls, and GSU runs a similar offense but does a better job of it. GSU's defense is not too good but Texas St might not have their offense on the field as much as they would like. On the other hand, GSU is on the road... still, I like the Eagles here.

EWU 34
UNI 27

I really like EWU in this one. Meyer can be so dominant, and UNI is weak against the pass. That's a bad combination for the home team.

Cal Poly 24
Montana 21

This is a tough one to figure, with neither team particularly consistent throughout the season. I question whether Montana will repeat their offensive performance from the regular season Cal Poly-UM meeting. Given another chance, maybe Poly does better against Hilliard.

Nicholls St 21
Furman 35

The Paladins have long been familiar with the option. GSU executed it in a rather potent form just a couple weeks ago. Too bad for Nicholls, they don't have a Jayson Foster and, what's worse, they play in Greenville.

Their defense is OK, but Furman's offense is clicking pretty well right now. It's hard to stop the 3-headed monster at TB, the J-train at FB, Martin at QB... all behind one of the best O-lines in I-AA. Nicholls will need a lot of offense to win this one.

SIU 20
EIU 17

This could be a low-scoring game. EIU is at home but I think SIU is just a better football team.

[fuEMO]

UNH: 45
Colgate: 10



Northern Iowa: 35
Eastern Washington: 42


Montana: 31
Cal Poly: 20


GSU: 30
Texas State: 38

Appalachian State: 45
Laugheyette: 3


Southern Illinois: 35
Eastern Illinois: 10

Furman: 20
Nichols State: 38



Richmond: 31
Hampton: 14

So Nichols State is going to hold Furman to the lowest scoring output of the season. Hell Ingle threw 5 interceptions against Western and we still scored 21. Ingle will roll up some yardage in this one.

[PantherMan]

You're going to need more than 42 to beat EWU and 27 by EWU might be what they have at the end of 1.



We'll be pulling for that. If we win that might give us home field and the thought of playing a run offense would be nice.



Most of us are a little nervous about that game. It's hard to beat the same team twice in a year.

If we score 42 points against EWU, I will all but guarantee a W in the Dome. I think that it will be a shootout, but we won't give up over 40 points.

[txstatebobcat]

Colgate 21

GSU 30
(4) TX St 24

Texas St is a good team, but they lost to Nicholls, and GSU runs a similar offense but does a better job of it. GSU's defense is not too good but Texas St might not have their offense on the field as much as they would like. On the other hand, GSU is on the road... still, I like the Eagles here.




Nicholls St 21
Furman 35

The Paladins have long been familiar with the option. GSU executed it in a rather potent form just a couple weeks ago. Too bad for Nicholls, they don't have a Jayson Foster and, what's worse, they play in Greenville.

Their defense is OK, but Furman's offense is clicking pretty well right now. It's hard to stop the 3-headed monster at TB, the J-train at FB, Martin at QB... all behind one of the best O-lines in I-AA. Nicholls will need a lot of offense to win this one.



Sam Houston held TxSt to its lowest scoring output this past year. We lost five fumbles and we still scored 26 points. One thing that people don't understand is that we also run a ball control offense, and our defense is much better than Georgia Southern's.

Nicholls St may not have the speed of Georgia Southern, but they are far from slow. The game against Nicholls St was far and away the most physical game the bobcats played.

[eagleskins]

Sam Houston held TxSt to its lowest scoring output this past year. We lost five fumbles and we still scored 26 points. One thing that people don't understand is that we also run a ball control offense, and our defense is much better than Georgia Southern's.

Nicholls St may not have the speed of Georgia Southern, but they are far from slow. The game against Nicholls St was far and away the most physical game the bobcats played.


GSU wins by 20+. Has TSU ever been to the playoffs? Let's drop some money on it.

[Mr. C]

I think that Lafayette is a decent squad and if App State takes them lightly, they may well lose. App should be the favorite though.
Appalachian hasn't taken anyone lightly this year. This team prepares about as well as any I've seen. The Mountaineers should have a big speed advantage and Lafayette should have trouble moving the ball on the ASU defense. App State is very balanced offensively and Richie Williams is the most athletic quarterback in I-AA. Someone posted that Lafayette doesn't make many mistakes. Neither does App State. Plus the Mountaineers have a big home-field advantage at Kidd Brewer Stadium, where they have won 15 games in a row. This is a very difficult game for the Leopards.

[umassfan]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH

Northern Iowa vs Eastern Washington - Northern Iowa

Montana vs Cal Poly - Montana

GSU vs Texas State - Texas St

Appalachian State vs Lafayette - Appalachian State

Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - Southern Illinois

Furman vs Nichols State - Furman

Richmond vs Hampton - Richmond

[eaglesrthe1]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH

Northern Iowa vs Eastern Washington - Northern Iowa

Montana vs Cal Poly - Montana

GSU vs Texas State - Texas St

Appalachian State vs Lafayette - Appalachian State

Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - Southern Illinois

Furman vs Nichols State - Furman

Richmond vs Hampton - Richmond

Well, at least your on record. Go umassfan! Except with the Tx St prediction.

[UNHWildCats]

Colgate 21
(1) UNH 35


I actually think Colgate has a better chance than Lafayette. UNH's defense has been iffy, so maybe with some turnovers Colgate could make it a game.

only problem there UNH doesnt turn the ball over often, and they lead the nation in takeaway/giveaway differential.

PS Colgate will have a hard time holding UNH to 35 pointsin Durham

[FlyBoy8]

UNH over CU
UNI over EWU
GSU over TSU
UM over CP

ASU over LC
SIU over EIU
UR over HU
FU over NSU

Quarterfinals:
UNH over UNI
GSU over UM

ASU over SIU
FU over UR

Semifinals:
UNH over GSU
ASU over FU

Championship:
UNH over ASU



Despite knowing that this won't happen - I can't see the top two seeds in the title game, that never happens - I can't figure it any other way.

[EWURanger]

I love it.....almost everyone predicts us to lose in the 1st round. We play much better as the underdog anyways.

[colgate13]

I love how everyone thinks that both Lafayette and Colgate will get blown out. Same **** just a different year. Last year when Lehigh got in we heard the same **** about how JMU will blow us out.
We'll see what happens on Saturday.

Yup. No reason to rebut though. We're playing two of the best teams in I-AA. We just have to prove on the field we're better. I think both teams will be coming out loose and ready to have fun.

A nice bonus factor too: both teams have a lot of players that have already been in the playoffs. No 'wide eyed' factor for the PL. Just strap it up and play.

[kalm]

I would be surprised if we put up 40 against a playoff caliber team, but the logic behind why we might is the fact that we hung 34 at WSG against a great Griz D, 24 in the 1st half (we rested starters once we knew we were in) against a solid Davis D that dominated Stanford, 35 against Poly's vaunted flex D, and 42 against a PSU team that held Boise St. to something like 17.

There's some outstanding defense being played out west - just like the Gateway. Should be interesting to watch.

[colgate13]

only problem there UNH doesnt turn the ball over often, and they lead the nation in takeaway/giveaway differential.

PS Colgate will have a hard time holding UNH to 35 pointsin Durham

Certainly a lot of teams have/would have. We'll see how good we can do against one of the nations best.

The real key to this game IMO is how good Colgate can be on offense. If we can have success with our style of play, it's a ball game. We control the ball, run a lot, take time off the clock, etc. Nothing will hold UNH down in points than Colgate on offense for 60+% of the game.

[colgate13]

Appalachian hasn't taken anyone lightly this year. This team prepares about as well as any I've seen. The Mountaineers should have a big speed advantage and Lafayette should have trouble moving the ball on the ASU defense. App State is very balanced offensively and Richie Williams is the most athletic quarterback in I-AA. Someone posted that Lafayette doesn't make many mistakes. Neither does App State. Plus the Mountaineers have a big home-field advantage at Kidd Brewer Stadium, where they have won 15 games in a row. This is a very difficult game for the Leopards.

Man, where have I heard that kind of stuff before? The Lafayette defense is very good. Of course it is a difficult game. But LC deserves to be on the same field as App. st. It should not be a blow out. Lafayette has played close games all year. I see this one being the same.

[Cocky]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH 34-17
UNI vs EWU - EWU 28-20
Montana vs Cal Poly - Montana 42-21
GSU vs Texas State - TX State 38-21
Appalachian State vs Lafayette - ASU 21-18
Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - EIU 14-10
Furman vs Nichols State - Furman 21-14
Richmond vs Hampton - Hampton 33-17

[ButlerGSU]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH 28-10
UNI vs EWU - UNI 21-17
Montana vs Cal Poly - Montana 48-17
GSU vs Texas State - GSU 48-35
Appalachian State vs Lafayette - ASU 38-21
Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - SIU 28-21
Furman vs Nichols State - Nichols State 34-28
Richmond vs Hampton - Richmond 24-14

[Black and Gold Express]

I think that Lafayette is a decent squad and if App State takes them lightly, they may well lose. App should be the favorite though.

In years past I'd completely agree with this. But maybe the biggest difference with this year's team from past years is that they have not overlooked people. Maybe the one time you could argue they did was against Chattanooga, but I personally disagree with that (UC came in and played a whale of a game) and we still won that game by 10 points.

LC should get 100% of the Apps' attention, I have no worries on that front.

[GaSouthern]

I really wanna watch the App state game on TV cause I wanna see how many people they can pack in that stadium, 25K+? The atmosphere around there has been amazing this year.

[Saint3333]

With the students gone for Thanksgiving (although I hear some will come back) I'd say only 12-15K for the first round. We typically draw ~60% of our avg. attendance for the first playoff game. Still that will be one of the biggest crowds the Pards have seen.

[FU97]

Our team is completely different than what we were at the beggining of the season. I seem to remember a 7 point thrashing of that juggernaut Division II delta state by you guys.

We beat Furman, of course, who is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country. We beat WCU 45-7, who beat Furman 41-21, gave Cincinatti all they could handle (and should have won), and we thrashed UTC 48-10, who gave both Furman and App St. decent games, and beat Jacksonville State.

As for our defense, well, we did a good job on Furman (kept them at 24 points). They got a rough start but they have gotten better and will be ready for you.

Two common opponents is not enough to make a good judgement, especially when one is the McNeese State game. Our new quarterbacks always struggle in our first couple of games. Back in '02 we lost two of the first three, but came within 3 points of going to Chattanooga.

No offense, but UTC didn't give Furman a decent game. They scored 7 points late on our backups (with their starters) and a 7 on a blocked punt (by our backup punter). Not even close to a decent game.

[bcrawf]

Would there be any way the NCAA could move the start of the Playoffs back one week. We know they love money and can sell more tickets everywhere if the students aren't at home??

[FU97]

Would there be any way the NCAA could move the start of the Playoffs back one week. We know they love money and can sell more tickets everywhere if the students aren't at home??

Then the Finals are right around Christmas. Not going to happen.

[JSU Fan]

Opening Round:

UNH 42, Colgate 20
EWU 35, NIU 31
Montana 27, Cal Poly 26
GSU 34, Texas State 31
ASU 45, Lafayette 14
EIU 14, SIU 13
Furman 56, Nicholls 49
Richmond 34, Hampton 28

Quarterfinals:

EWU 42, UNH 38
GSU 38, Montana 31
ASU 27, EIU 10
Furman 45, Richmond 42

Semifinals:

GSU 45, EWU 38
ASU 37, Furman 35

Championship:

ASU 31, GSU 27

Out.

[HensRock]

UNH over Colgate
EWU over UNI
Cal Poly over Montana
TX State over GSU

Hampton over Richmond
Nicholls over Furman (last minute FU effort falls short)
SIU over EIU
App over LC

[Pards Rule]

I have no doubts about ASU...We have got to play a Delaware game plus against these folks. Thanks 'Gate13 for your help on this board! Congrats on winning the Patriot this year!

[ButlerGSU]

Opening Round:

UNH 42, Colgate 20
EWU 35, NIU 31
Montana 27, Cal Poly 26
GSU 34, Texas State 31
ASU 45, Lafayette 14
EIU 14, SIU 13
Furman 56, Nicholls 49
Richmond 34, Hampton 28

Quarterfinals:

EWU 42, UNH 38
GSU 38, Montana 31
ASU 27, EIU 10
Furman 45, Richmond 42

Semifinals:

GSU 45, EWU 38
ASU 37, Furman 35

Championship:

ASU 31, GSU 27

Out.

Man I hope you are right, all except that last one. Never underestimate revenge. We can worry about that later though, BEAT TSU!

[McNeese72]

You might score some points on GSU but you haven't seen any team with our speed. I think it will be a 14 point GSU win. The team that lost to McNeese is long gone.

And the McNeese team that won at Georgia Southern went AWOL after Hurricane Rita screwed up our season and sent the team into exhile in Hammond. Our game with GSU was our best played game of the season. The Texas St. game was definitely our worst (our game with SLU was a close second). We didn't get off the bus in either of those games.

I definitely wouldn't read too much into those scores when comparing them.

Doc

[golionsgo]

The Texas St. game was definitely our worst (our game with SLU was a close second). We didn't get off the bus in either of those games.

I definitely wouldn't read too much into those scores when comparing them.

Doc


You didn't even have to get off the bus for our game...just a leisurely stroll across campus to get :spank: .... :nod: :nod: :nod:

[LacesOut]

UNH vs Colgate - UNH
Northern Iowa vs Eastern Washington - Eastern Washington
Montana vs Cal Poly - Cal Poly
GSU vs Texas State - Texas State
Appalachian State vs Lafayette - Appalachian State
Southern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois - Eastern Illinois
Furman vs Nicholls State - Nicholls State
Richmond vs Hampton - Richmond

[youwouldno]

Any of these people picking Nicholls up for a nice wager? I'm afraid the sportsbook might be more realistic.

[Black and Gold Express]

Any of these people picking Nicholls up for a nice wager? I'm afraid the sportsbook might be more realistic.

First round lines according to Sagarin

Colgate at #1 UNH (-17)
Lafayette at #2 ASU (-21)
Richmond at #3 Hampton (-1)
GSU at #4 Texas State (-6)
Nicholls State (-0.5) at Furman
Cal Poly at Montana (-3)
SIU (-6) at EIU
EWU (-0.5) at UNI

[youwouldno]

Vegas doesn't use Sagarin, at least not exclusively. I very seriously doubt Nicholls will be favored @ FU when the lines come out. Though if they are, plenty of easy money for me.

[rabidsaluki]

First round lines according to Sagarin

Colgate at #1 UNH (-17)
Lafayette at #2 ASU (-21)
Richmond at #3 Hampton (-1)
GSU at #4 Texas State (-6)
Nicholls State (-0.5) at Furman
Cal Poly at Montana (-3)
SIU (-6) at EIU
EWU (-0.5) at UNI


Those lines are pretty interesting. Especially the Nicholls St and the EWU game

[Screamin_Eagle174]

What's people's opinion of how EWU is going to do? I think a bunch of people assume that we're going into UNI far too confident and that it will bite us. When really, our boys are just glad to be in the playoffs. We have 16 seniors (pretty sure all starters) who are looking to finish their college careers with a national title. I don't think they're going to be too cocky, but they sure as hell are going to come in determined as hell. We have a great team, so does UNI. We'll see how it turns out; gotta love a great running game vs a superb passing game!

[Black and Gold Express]

What's people's opinion of how EWU is going to do? I think a bunch of people assume that we're going into UNI far too confident and that it will bite us. When really, our boys are just glad to be in the playoffs. We have 16 seniors (pretty sure all starters) who are looking to finish their college careers with a national title. I don't think they're going to be too cocky, but they sure as hell are going to come in determined as hell. We have a great team, so does UNI. We'll see how it turns out; gotta love a great running game vs a superb passing game!

In all seriousness, if the seeds hold up then jet lag is going to do you guys in most likely. If it holds up, your road trips will be to Iowa, then New Hampshire, then Texas. With the other possibilities for roadies being New York (Colgate 2nd round) and Georgia (GSU semifinals), that's a lot of potential travel, and the NFL has long proven that west coast teams going all the way east tend to struggle with the time shifts.

Not saying it's impossible, but if I were EWU I'd hope for Montana or Cal Poly to pull some upsets to keep a semifinal trip at least on the west coast.

[OL FU]

Those lines are pretty interesting. Especially the Nicholls St and the EWU game

I expect Nichols and Furman to be a good game, but, with regard to B&G, I would not put much in Sagarin. It has been discuss and in my opinion appropriate dissed many times on the board.

[kats89]

I think Furman better be ready for some triple option football. Nicholls St is playing out of their mind right now, especially after they beat Tx State about 3 weeks ago. The biggest difference for their success this year is their RB's and returning starter Yale Vannoy at QB. They have some good backs coming out of that backfield.

[OL FU]

I think Furman better be ready for some triple option football. Nicholls St is playing out of their mind right now, especially after they beat Tx State about 3 weeks ago. The biggest difference for their success this year is their RB's and returning starter Yale Vannoy at QB. They have some good backs coming out of that backfield.

I think we will be ready for triple option football. Two of the last three teams we played ran that. Should be an interesting game. I don't expect it to be much different than most of the ones we have played this year. Close.

PS, I hear their rush defense if good. Question, how many rush oriented teams have they played?

[FU97]

I think Furman better be ready for some triple option football. Nicholls St is playing out of their mind right now, especially after they beat Tx State about 3 weeks ago. The biggest difference for their success this year is their RB's and returning starter Yale Vannoy at QB. They have some good backs coming out of that backfield.

Seeing as we play the masters of the triple option every year in GSU, I'm sure our coaching staff won't be overly concerned about the style of offense. We also get to play Wofford who runs a similar option offense.

[Black and Gold Express]

I expect Nichols and Furman to be a good game, but, with regard to B&G, I would not put much in Sagarin. It has been discuss and in my opinion appropriate dissed many times on the board.

In terms of game lines it's also been proven week in and out to be as accurate as anything else out there. Considering the options for I-AA lines are almost nil, you gotta use it.

[colgate13]

Curious, anyone care to note the playoff performance of recent #1 seeds?

[crunifan]

New Hampshire vs Colgate - New Hampshire
UNI vs Eastern Washington- UNI

Montana vs Cal Poly - Montana
Georgia Southern vs Texas State - Georgia Southern

Appalachian State vs Lafeyette - Appalachian State
SIU vs Eastern Illinois - SIU

Furman vs Nicholls State - Furman
Richmond vs Hampton - Richmond

[HIUguy08]

Colgate 24 vs. New Hampshire 30
UNI 28 vs. EWU 27

Montana 22 vs. Cal Poly 16
GSU 28 vs. Texas State 35

ASU 21 vs. Lafeyette 7
SIU 33 vs. EIU 30

Furman 29 vs. Nicholls State 21
Richmond 17 vs. Hampton 20

[OL FU]

In terms of game lines it's also been proven week in and out to be as accurate as anything else out there. Considering the options for I-AA lines are almost nil, you gotta use it.

Hey you can use whatever you want to, but I don't have to give it alot of credit.

[Black and Gold Express]

Hey you can use whatever you want to, but I don't have to give it alot of credit.

Give me another option to create point spreads from data, and I'll do it. AFAIK, Sagarin's the only one out there.

[Live4Griz]

Curious, anyone care to note the playoff performance of recent #1 seeds?

I'll Bite!!

Eastern Washington beat # 1 Southern Illinois last year in the first round 35-31

2003- Northern Arizona knocked off # 1 McNeese State 35-3 in the 1st Round

Both EWU & NAU are members of the Big Sky!!

GO GRIZ

[OL FU]

Give me another option to create point spreads from data, and I'll do it. AFAIK, Sagarin's the only one out there.


:) :) :)

I should have quoted the other poster that started my comments.

And no I don't have one, which doesn't bother me. But you are right, there is not much out there to compare teams from different regions. But as you know and we have discussed before I am not a Sagarin fan.

Hope he is wrong this time.

[wrrolling]

UNH 38 colgate 17

EWU 35 UNI 21- EWU defense appears to be coming along and getting starters back from injury. If the D coor. gives UNI a lot of different looks they have the ability to stop good teams. Our "O" won't be stopped.

Cal Poly 31 Montana 13- Montana has no offense and as long as Cal Poly takes care of the ball they win.

GSU 28 Texas State 14

ASU 24 Lafyette 10

SIU 28 EIU 21

Nichols 21 Furman 24

Hampton 31 Richmond 24

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

UNH 38 colgate 17

EWU 35 UNI 21- EWU defense appears to be coming along and getting starters back from injury. If the D coor. gives UNI a lot of different looks they have the ability to stop good teams. Our "O" won't be stopped.

Cal Poly 31 Montana 13- Montana has no offense and as long as Cal Poly takes care of the ball they win.

GSU 28 Texas State 14

ASU 24 Lafyette 10

SIU 28 EIU 21

Nichols 21 Furman 24

Hampton 31 Richmond 24

Why isn't EWU UNI on TV instead of UNH and Colgate? Is that number 1 team privelege to get a televised game? That would be an awesome game to watch.

[rcny46]

Why isn't EWU UNI on TV instead of UNH and Colgate? Is that number 1 team privelege to get a televised game? That would be an awesome game to watch.


I don't understand ESPN's thinking on this one either.

[blackfordpu]

UNH: 45
Colgate: 10

Northern Iowa: 21
Eastern Washington: 28

Montana: 42
Cal Poly: 14

GSU: 24
Texas State: 13

Appalachian State: 31
Laugheyette: 14

Southern Illinois: 24
Eastern Illinois: 17

Furman: 24
Nichols State: 27

Richmond: 10
Hampton: 21

[nmatsen]

UNH 38 colgate 17

EWU 35 UNI 21- EWU defense appears to be coming along and getting starters back from injury. If the D coor. gives UNI a lot of different looks they have the ability to stop good teams. Our "O" won't be stopped.

Cal Poly 31 Montana 13- Montana has no offense and as long as Cal Poly takes care of the ball they win.

GSU 28 Texas State 14

ASU 24 Lafyette 10

SIU 28 EIU 21

Nichols 21 Furman 24

Hampton 31 Richmond 24

"Our "O" won't be stopped". If I had a dollar for every time I heard that on this board this year leading up to someones game against UNI (Youngstown, Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois) I would have 3 Dollars. By the way, none of them played half the offensive game they were talking, oh and we won all three games!

[McNeese75]

You didn't even have to get off the bus for our game...just a leisurely stroll across campus to get :spank: .... :nod: :nod: :nod:

That is soooooooo over :cool:

[matfu]

if texas state beats ga southern it will be because ts is very very good on offense OR gs turns the ball over. gs proved against us (furman) that the best defense is a good offense. i suspect texas state will not know what hit them.

i predict gs will win the top bracket and will play either furman or app state in the championship game.

[dirtbag]

UNH 45 Colgate 24

UNI 35, EWU 31 -- Game of the week

UM 20, CP 17

TSU 38, GSU 28

ASU 41 LU 10

SIU 28 EIU 13

Furman 34 NSU 31

Hampton 28 Richmond 24

2nd:

UNH 38 UNI 35

TSU 31 UM 13

Furman 42 Hampton 20

ASU 31 SIU 20

Semis

UNH 33 TSU 31

ASU 27 Furman 23

Final

ASU 45 UNH 28

[blackfordpu]

if texas state beats ga southern it will be because ts is very very good on offense OR gs turns the ball over. gs proved against us (furman) that the best defense is a good offense. i suspect texas state will not know what hit them.

i predict gs will win the top bracket and will play either furman or app state in the championship game.

It seems that most people are predicting a TSU-SM win over GSU.

[youwouldno]

Give me another option to create point spreads from data, and I'll do it. AFAIK, Sagarin's the only one out there.

'From data' being the key phrase. I don't think computer methods are that great a prediction tool for an individual game. Sagarin really tells us jack crap about a match-up, except to formulate previous results into a measure of "strength." Sure, teams that win more against better competition are generally better than teams that win less against weaker competition. I could have told you that.

But the reality is that, in a playoff-type game, Sagarin may as well be a random number generator.

Vegas puts out I-AA lines. I'll post when I see them, probably Wednesday or Thursday. If Nicholls is favored over Furman, I'll also be making a lot of money.

[Chi Panther]

UNH 45 Colgate 24

UNI 35, EWU 31 -- Game of the week

UM 20, CP 17

TSU 38, GSU 28

ASU 41 LU 10

SIU 28 EIU 13

Furman 34 NSU 31

Hampton 28 Richmond 24

2nd:

UNH 38 UNI 35

TSU 31 UM 13

Furman 42 Hampton 20

ASU 31 SIU 20

Semis

UNH 33 TSU 31

ASU 27 Furman 23

Final

ASU 45 UNH 28

Seems pretty well thought out to me......

[FU97]

Why isn't EWU UNI on TV instead of UNH and Colgate? Is that number 1 team privelege to get a televised game? That would be an awesome game to watch.

I'd guess due to game time. If the EWU-UNI game was on TV in the UNH time slot, it would have to start at 11 AM local time. Not an ideal situation.

[FU97]

if texas state beats ga southern it will be because ts is very very good on offense OR gs turns the ball over. gs proved against us (furman) that the best defense is a good offense. i suspect texas state will not know what hit them.

i predict gs will win the top bracket and will play either furman or app state in the championship game.

Yeah, when your offense holds the ball for 38 minutes its tough for the other team to score. When we got the ball, we moved it pretty well, including two 5 play TD drives.

Of course if we would have moved the ball when we were up 24-20, it wouldn't have mattered. Kudos to the GSU defense for rising up when their team needed it most. Mohring (LB) is a very good player.

[Kill'em]

UNH over Colgate

Eastern Washington squeaks by UNI

Ditto Montana over Cal Poly

Texas St over my Georgia Southern Eagles in a shootout.

App will crush Lafayette

Southern Ill and Eastern Ill ... I have no clue

Furman by 20 over Nicholls St ( Furman has seen this offense before )

Richmond will make believers of I-AA and Hampton will be brought back to earth

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

UNH 45 Colgate 24

UNI 35, EWU 31 -- Game of the week

UM 20, CP 17

TSU 38, GSU 28

ASU 41 LU 10

SIU 28 EIU 13

Furman 34 NSU 31

Hampton 28 Richmond 24

2nd:

UNH 38 UNI 35

TSU 31 UM 13

Furman 42 Hampton 20

ASU 31 SIU 20

Semis

UNH 33 TSU 31

ASU 27 Furman 23

Final

ASU 45 UNH 28

Not giving too much props to GSU. That's all right, come Saturday, I think we'll be the most feared team on the top side of the bracket.

[TxState_GO_CATS!]

Not giving too much props to GSU. That's all right, come Saturday, I think we'll be the most feared team on the top side of the bracket.

well, maybe it's the fact that he respects texas state... ;)

[dirtbag]

Not giving too much props to GSU. That's all right, come Saturday, I think we'll be the most feared team on the top side of the bracket.

Gosh, I am so, so, so, so, so, so sorry for this unforgivable breach of conduct. Let me revise my predictions:

First round:

GSU 86, TSU 0

Other games are irrelevant.


Second round:

GSU 143, Montana 0

Other games are irrelevant.


Semis:

GSU 212, UNH 0

Other game is irrelevant.


Championship:

GSU 2, ASU 0 (forfeit)


Special Bonus Championship game:

GSU 381, Southern Cal 0

[FU97]

Not giving too much props to GSU. That's all right, come Saturday, I think we'll be the most feared team on the top side of the bracket.

UNH will remain the most feared team on the top side of the bracket.

[LacesOut]

Gosh, I am so, so, so, so, so, so sorry for this unforgivable breach of conduct. Let me revise my predictions:

First round:

GSU 86, TSU 0

Other games are irrelevant.


Second round:

GSU 143, Montana 0

Other games are irrelevant.


Semis:

GSU 212, UNH 0

Other game is irrelevant.


Championship:

GSU 2, ASU 0 (forfeit)


Special Bonus Championship game:

GSU 381, Southern Cal 0

LMFAO!

[Black and Gold Express]

Furman by 20 over Nicholls St ( Furman has seen this offense before )


I don't get this logic. Yes, Furman has "seen" this offense this year. And they lost to it as well. By the way, they "see" this offense every year, so why didn't they beat GSU then? If the logic here is familiarity breeds an advantage, it seems the logic falls flat on it's face already this season.

It's not the system, it's the players. And from what I've heard these players run this offense a little differently that GSU does. Where GSU wants to make you miss, NSU bowls people over, and more importantly spreads the ball out a lot more than GSU does.

Furman may well win this, in fact that's who I pick. But the reasoning is going to be more whether NSU can slow down the Furman offense, which few people have been able to for a full game. On the flip side, Furman's defense has hardly been world beaters this year, and if NSU can control the clock they stand a legit chance of hangin a loss on Furman.

Just like that other triple option team did this year.

[Black and Gold Express]

Vegas puts out I-AA lines. I'll post when I see them, probably Wednesday or Thursday. If Nicholls is favored over Furman, I'll also be making a lot of money.

Since when does Vegas post I-AA lines? That hasn't been the case for years, any time I go to Vegas no I-AA lines are up. They stick to I-A games.

[nick9c]

UNH: 42
Colgate: 17

UNH pretty much dominates, as Colgate is unable to stop their offense.

Northern Iowa: 28
Eastern Washington: 31

I expect this to be a close ball game, with EWU pulling out the win in the final seconds.

Montana: 17
Cal Poly: 28

Upset of the week - Montana's offense has been suspect this year and Cal Poly has a good D. It may be cold in Montana, but Cal Poly wins by 2 scores.

GSU: 28
Texas State: 24

GSU hasn't played terribly well on the road, and some turnovers will keep this one closer than it should be.

Appalachian State: 45
Lafayette: 7

Lafayette is clearly overmatched in this one and the results are as expected.

Southern Illinois: 31
Eastern Illinois: 21

Southern Illinois takes care of business and makes sure it doesn't see an early exit this year.

Furman: 38
Nichols State: 31

Furman's D will give up points, but FU's offense is too much for Nichols.

Richmond: 17
Hampton: 14

Low scoring affair, but Richmond pulls out the victory.

[thirdgendin]

I don't get this logic. Yes, Furman has "seen" this offense this year. And they lost to it as well. By the way, they "see" this offense every year, so why didn't they beat GSU then? If the logic here is familiarity breeds an advantage, it seems the logic falls flat on it's face already this season.

It's not the system, it's the players. And from what I've heard these players run this offense a little differently that GSU does. Where GSU wants to make you miss, NSU bowls people over, and more importantly spreads the ball out a lot more than GSU does.

Furman may well win this, in fact that's who I pick. But the reasoning is going to be more whether NSU can slow down the Furman offense, which few people have been able to for a full game. On the flip side, Furman's defense has hardly been world beaters this year, and if NSU can control the clock they stand a legit chance of hangin a loss on Furman.

Just like that other triple option team did this year.

We did a lot better against Wofford. :D

[Kill'em]

I don't get this logic. Yes, Furman has "seen" this offense this year. And they lost to it as well. By the way, they "see" this offense every year, so why didn't they beat GSU then? If the logic here is familiarity breeds an advantage, it seems the logic falls flat on it's face already this season.

It's not the system, it's the players. And from what I've heard these players run this offense a little differently that GSU does. Where GSU wants to make you miss, NSU bowls people over, and more importantly spreads the ball out a lot more than GSU does.

Furman may well win this, in fact that's who I pick. But the reasoning is going to be more whether NSU can slow down the Furman offense, which few people have been able to for a full game. On the flip side, Furman's defense has hardly been world beaters this year, and if NSU can control the clock they stand a legit chance of hangin a loss on Furman.

Just like that other triple option team did this year.
Yes, Nicholls runs it differently. For one, they incorporate a tight end and we generally do not. However, my point is that Nicholls isn't Georgia Southern. Furman couldn't handle the speed because of their young defense. The fact that they have seen the triple option and are familiar with it gives them a huge advantage.

[OL FU]

Yes, Nicholls runs it differently. For one, they incorporate a tight end and we generally do not. However, my point is that Nicholls isn't Georgia Southern. Furman couldn't handle the speed because of their young defense. The fact that they have seen the triple option and are familiar with it gives them a huge advantage.


My question, and I ask it somewhere before (I need to use the subscribe feature to keep up with all of this) is Nichols' defense. Stats are good against the rush. But how many good ( I mean really good) rushing teams did they play? (Not a slam at any of their opponents, I just don't know) At this point in the season, any reasonable Furman fan understands we are going to give up points. Took a little while to sink in, but I think we now understand.

Doesn't it really come down to their defense. Yes I understand keeping FU off the field with ball control. But you still have to stop us once we get the ball. Only two teams have done that all year. WCU, and the more I consider that one the more I realize we stopped ourselves, and the Citadel, and while I hate these excuses, ie, Martin being sick, I will use it since their is no other and because a back up QB led the offense to quick scores in the fourth quarter.

So, can their defense slow down the run?

[Black and Gold Express]

Yes, Nicholls runs it differently. For one, they incorporate a tight end and we generally do not. However, my point is that Nicholls isn't Georgia Southern. Furman couldn't handle the speed because of their young defense. The fact that they have seen the triple option and are familiar with it gives them a huge advantage.

That just is a weak argument to hang a prediction on. This is football, not rocket science. There's very little that any college team does that another college coach has never seen before.

The option game is not such a gimmick offense that there are teams out there that have never seen it. Variations and twists yes, but nothing more.

It's not the scheme, it's the players. And yes I know full well defending the option requires more discipline than anything, and it takes freelancers out of their game. But you can coach a team to defend any kind of offense, and they can know exactly what they need to do. And if they do not have the athletes out there that can get in the right places and make the plays, they will get blasted, regardless if it's the first time, or the 50th time, they've seen a certain offense.

Furman's advantage, if they have one, on defense in this game will be in the quality of the 11 athletes they put on the field. Nothing more and nothing less. The only advantage they might have in these playoff scenario s is maybe already having the basics of a gameplan in place. But again, NSU does things differently from GSU, and just enough that it may not apply, and you can throw out that supposed advantage based on that alone.

This is a myth, one that's way overused.

[Lafayette71]

With the students gone for Thanksgiving (although I hear some will come back) I'd say only 12-15K for the first round. We typically draw ~60% of our avg. attendance for the first playoff game. Still that will be one of the biggest crowds the Pards have seen.


The Pards beat Lehigh on the road in front of 16,017 in attendance at Goodman Stadium last week. 26,000 would be an impressive spectacle, but since it sounds like they don't expect that kind of turnout I don't expect the atmosphere to be any more intense than you get for that game, with the exception of App St.'s impressive play at home over the last 3+ years. 12-15K would be the biggest crowd the Pards see most years with the exception of Lehigh though. Mostly due to the state of Fisher Field, and the enrollment at Lafayette.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

UNH: 45
Colgate: 27

UNH is too good for Colgate.

Northern Iowa: 21
Eastern Washington: 34

A lot of people don't like EWU. I do for no real good reason - how that for analysis! :D

Montana: 20
Cal Poly: 21

Never give a team a second chance in I-AA. The team that was on the losing end will make the other pay retribution! See JMU vs. W&M last year...

GSU: 21
Texas State: 34

Texas State has been well tested this year and will use the home field advantage to take this game. It could be much closer, but I don't get the sense GSU has a strong team this year.

Appalachian State: 52
Lafayette: 7

What is going to happen on these boards if Lafayette pulls out a miracle in Boone (2 weeks in a row? It can happen... but it won't!)

Southern Illinois: 31
Eastern Illinois: 10

Winning 10-6 on the road in Jacksonville St. to end the season does not suggest a deep run in the playoffs.

Furman: 35
Nichols State: 28

I heard Furman struggles with the option Offense that Nicholls St. plays... We'll see how by how much this weekend, but it will keep the game close in any event.

Richmond: 48
Hampton: 24

There's more offense between these two teams than people realize. Tutt will have a big day. The scoring D of the Spiders may make some noise in this one. Hampton will have a few big plays, but nothing to overcome this team who is peaking at the right time!

One Side Note: While we are all shocked with Lafayette, they along with Colgate pulled the #1 and #2 seeds in the tourney. I kind of think the SoCon wanted to give APp St. an easier opponent 1st round than Youngstowne, but that's just me.

[Black and Gold Express]

One Side Note: While we are all shocked with Lafayette, they along with Colgate pulled the #1 and #2 seeds in the tourney. I kind of think the SoCon wanted to give APp St. an easier opponent 1st round than Youngstowne, but that's just me.

Every year one team gets crowned as the "chosen ones" with the easy draw. I guess it's us this year. :rolleyes:

Fact: The last 15 teams that have come to Boone have ran the gambit of bad teams to decent teams to good teams to great teams.

Fact: All left town losers.

Fact: We get to play in Boone until the finals.

Do the math.

I have yet to see a team in I-AA that is heads and shoulders better than us, and the idea that we need additional help to get to the finals is simply stupid.

If people want to make excuses for YSU getting left out and Lafayette getting put in, do so. But leave us out of the equation. That's just childish.

[AZGrizFan]

One? Haha, more like FOUR! In the three games prior, Montana didn't get a single offensive TD- their defense and special teams were carrying them. Cal Poly still held their own at their last meeting at Wash-Griz.

Unless Bergquist and his offense can over-turn their capsizing, their's a pretty good chance Montana will be sunk before the semis. Defense can't be a life preserver forever...

You should check facts before you start spouting *****, Screamer. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: We got THREE offensive TD's against Portland State, and TWO more against Sac State. So much for your theory of not "a single offensive TD" in the three games prior to MSU. Our offense isn't good right now, most Griz fans will acknowledge. However, we beat multiple teams this year that you couldn't seem to, so lets let it get decided on the field...

[SouthernEagle02]

After reading this forum for the past hour I thought I would throw my two cents in. Seeing as I am no Vegas odds maker you can either chose to critique them or totally disagree with them, but I am going on a limb and saying that thier will be two overtime games this weekend with no real upsets. Enjoy.

Colgate 17
UNH 28

Eastern Wash 38
Nothern Iowa 30
(I would also like to see this on tv)

Cal Poly 23
Montana 20 OT
(As promised, one of the two overtime games)

Georgia Southern 28
Texas State 25 OT
(And this is the other OT game. Yes I'm a GSU grad and well I believe this game will be alot like our game against Furman, defensive battle with offensive scoring here and there.)

Richmond 14
Hampton 28

Nicholls St. 34
Furman 31
(This will be an excellent game to see if your in Greenville, SC area)

Southern Illinois 28
Eastern Illinois 13
(SIU will avenge last years early departure)

LaFayette 28
App. St. 33
(As much as I'd like to see ASU get the boot, RW is just to Michael Vick like and will be too much for Lafayette's D)

[AndrewFU21]

Colgate at #1 New Hampshire- the Wildcats are on a mission: UNH 45-13

Eastern Washington at Northern Iowa- this is a great matchup, UNI is tough at home: UNI 34-31

Cal Poly at Montana- The Griz have to solve their problems on offense to win this one: CP 24-17

Georgia Southern at #4 Texas State- I'm not entirely sold on Texas State, GSU is 14-1 all-time in the first round: GSU 31-24

Richmond at #3 Hampton- Richmond is the sexy pick, and have been playing awesome lately, but Hampton pulls out a tight one: HU 28-27

Nicholls State at Furman- The Colonels' option game won't fool the Paladins, since we've already faced two similar offenses already. This one may be close, but I'm confident in a Furman victory: FU 41-31

Southern Illinois at Eastern Illinois- the Salukis break their first round hex: SIU 28-13

Lafayette at #2 Appalachian State: ASU will be tough to beat, especially at home: ASU 27-10

[EWU 2001 ALUM]

Hello all! This is my first post after perusing the site for a day or so.

I'm here to bring intelligence to the fanbase of Eastern. So far I've read quite a bit of flaming, a tactic that I highly disdain. This game is going to be difficult for both teams, but in the end, EWU's senior-led team will prevail. As for the score...I have no idea!

BK

[Black and Gold Express]

May as well make my picks...

Colgate 35
UNH 52

UNH's offense seems to be for real, but they allow points as well.

EWU 24
UNI 28

At some point, the "best 7-4 team" is still 7-4 for a reason. UNI's been playing really well lately and they win at home.

CP-SLO 14
Montana 28

The Griz, at home, in the playoffs, are just simply a different team. You cannot discount this, or the fact that Poly is playing a green quarterback.

GSU 28
TSU 30

Texas State squeaks this one out at the gun. This may the game I have the least feel for.

UR 21
HU 24

Giving Hampton the benefit of the doubt. But I really do think UR will beat them soundly as HU hasn't faced anyone close being as good as UR this season.

NSU 27
FUR 35

The simple fact is Furman's offense is better than I think a lot of people want to believe. Their defense is suspect, but they'll outscore NSU at home.

SIU 31
EIU 17

I have no faith in an OVC team being good when it matters most.

LC 17
ASU 42

After a quarter-plus of testing each other, ASU turns on the jets and the backups are playing in the 4th quarter. The fans may be overlooking the Leopards, but all signs are the players are not. And that's all that matters.

[FU97]

NSU 27
FUR 35

The simple fact is Furman's offense is better than I think a lot of people want to believe. Their defense is suspect, but they'll outscore NSU at home.



When he doesn't totally implode (see 5 INTs at WCU), you'd be hard pressed to find a better QB than Martin. His performance at UTC was practically unstoppable (15-17, 300+, 2 TD). One of his incompletions was a drop of an easy pass in the end zone. If he can play like that throughout the playoffs, it will be very difficult to outscore the Paladins. You'll score on our defense, but you'll have to score 40+ to win. If we can win the turnover battle, something we struggle mightily with, we have a shot to beat any team in the country.

[OL FU]

NSU 27
FUR 35

The simple fact is Furman's offense is better than I think a lot of people want to believe. Their defense is suspect, but they'll outscore NSU at home.



Thanks B&G,

Now I don't think for a moment that it is a given that Furman is going to win, but it has surprise me through this thread how many people have picked Nichols. The AGS poll has consistently ranked Furman very high (always higher than I have) and then when the playoff starts the posters pick a team that enter the poll in the last week or so. Not saying a Furman win is certain just how many have picked did not make alot of sense.

And PS, remember we put up 34 points and beat the team most people think will win the NC this year. :D :confused:

[Kill'em]

That just is a weak argument to hang a prediction on. This is football, not rocket science. There's very little that any college team does that another college coach has never seen before.

The option game is not such a gimmick offense that there are teams out there that have never seen it. Variations and twists yes, but nothing more.

It's not the scheme, it's the players. And yes I know full well defending the option requires more discipline than anything, and it takes freelancers out of their game. But you can coach a team to defend any kind of offense, and they can know exactly what they need to do. And if they do not have the athletes out there that can get in the right places and make the plays, they will get blasted, regardless if it's the first time, or the 50th time, they've seen a certain offense.

Furman's advantage, if they have one, on defense in this game will be in the quality of the 11 athletes they put on the field. Nothing more and nothing less. The only advantage they might have in these playoff scenario s is maybe already having the basics of a gameplan in place. But again, NSU does things differently from GSU, and just enough that it may not apply, and you can throw out that supposed advantage based on that alone.

This is a myth, one that's way overused.
Shows how much you know. In '85 Northern Iowa got a high school option QB to simulate our offense and it failed, badly. Usually reams that don't see the option much struggle to stop it, especially when it is us. We have the most trouble with teams familiar with our offense and those that are discplined. This a big reason why we have trouble getting I-A games. I-A coaches do not want to dedicate that much time to defend an offense they won't see again.

So don't tell me this is lame!

[wrrolling]

"Our "O" won't be stopped". If I had a dollar for every time I heard that on this board this year leading up to someones game against UNI (Youngstown, Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois) I would have 3 Dollars. By the way, none of them played half the offensive game they were talking, oh and we won all three games!

Oh. Save this one. I'll bet in week 2 of the playoffs you don't give up any points...because you are at home.

[Chi Panther]

Oh. Save this one. I'll bet in week 2 of the playoffs you don't give up any points...because you are at home.

.....and beating the piss out of Colgate......


Just kidding Colgate13.... ;)

[kats89]

I think we will be ready for triple option football. Two of the last three teams we played ran that. Should be an interesting game. I don't expect it to be much different than most of the ones we have played this year. Close.

PS, I hear their rush defense if good. Question, how many rush oriented teams have they played?


Their run defense is good, but their pass defense is suprisingly better. When Sam Houston went down there earlier in the year, they were ranked 12th nationally in pass defense and at the top in the conference. This Nicholls St team is not the same team we have come used to seeing in years past. They are good and physical.

[UNH 1999]

Weather forcast for Durham, NH has the daytime highs at 36, partly cloudy with a 20% chance of precipitation. I am glad that snow has moved out of the forecast.

In light of the above, if UNH's offense is firing on all cylinders it should be a good day for the 'Cats. Unlike some others, I will not completely disregard the challenge Colgate presents. I think UNH will come out on top but it will be a game...

UNH: 35
Colgate: 28

[thirdgendin]

Furman: 35
Nichols State: 28

I heard Furman struggles with the option Offense that Nicholls St. plays... We'll see how by how much this weekend, but it will keep the game close in any event.

No, remember. It has nothing to do with whether or not we've seen the offense before. It's only about the 11 players we put on the field. :D

[Blue42]

Check it out fellas...

New Hampshire 44 Colgate 14...cruise control
UNI 35 EWU 28...Dome Magic
Cal Poly 28 Montana 17...the bear *****s in the woulds (coulda, woulda, shoulda)
Texas State 31 GSU 28...statement game for Texas St
Southern Illinois 38 Eastern Ill 14...SIU finally gets a taste of playoff glory
Furman 21 Nichols St 14...what the hell is a Palladin, anyway?
Richmond 24 Hampton 14...curse of the MEAC

[FU97]

Furman 21 Nichols St 14...what the hell is a Palladin, anyway?


A medevil knight.

[bluehenbillk]

UNH 52 Colgate 21 - 'Gate can't hang with Ball & Santos
UNI 31 EWU 28 - I agree with GF
CalPoly 20 Montana 13 - Early exit for the Griz
Texas St 40 GSU 34 - Texas St is my darkhorse
Richmond 17 Hampton 13 - Defensive struggle, MEAC still sucks
Furman 28 Nicholls St 14 - FU is a good home team, they'll lose when they leave Greenville.
SIU 23 EIU 20 - GF is right, the Salukis are playoff dogs, but EIU is bad.
App St 31 Lafayette 10 - Lafayette wouldn't be in if Clawson wasn't insane in September

[siugrad99]

Yep your right SIU are playoff dawgs. Noone was going to beat Deleware the year we were sent there with our # 4 ranking & 10-1 record. We laid an egg verse EWU last year yes, but to call us dogs is a bit off. Seeing that your team is sitting home for the holidays :) We may not have won, but atleast we are here again with a chance to change that.

[ButlerGSU]

No, remember. It has nothing to do with whether or not we've seen the offense before. It's only about the 11 players we put on the field. :D

I was at the GSU/Furman game and I can honestly say Furman did not struggle against our O. While we lost one Foster TD due to a bad call it was a hard fought game on both sides. Furman is a very good team this year and will give NSU fits all day. I look for Furman to throw it deep several times like they did against us and again last Saturday at UTC. Furman will pull this out by at least 10 points.

[Black and Gold Express]

Shows how much you know. In '85 Northern Iowa got a high school option QB to simulate our offense and it failed, badly. Usually reams that don't see the option much struggle to stop it, especially when it is us. We have the most trouble with teams familiar with our offense and those that are discplined. This a big reason why we have trouble getting I-A games. I-A coaches do not want to dedicate that much time to defend an offense they won't see again.

So don't tell me this is lame!

I will tell you it's lame.

If this offense is so tough to defend, and rarely seen, why is it that in the last 25 years, of the few I-A teams that have stuck with the flexbone triple option, only one (Air Force) has any real history of consistent success year after year?

Why is it that GSU can't beat any I-A teams they play? I mean you have this built in advantage here with your unusual offense, right?

Perhaps it's because the athletes do matter most. If you are faster or stronger than your opponents, you'll find success - and GSU has this advantage many times. Your scheme relies on speed, and speed you have. Without that speed, you're not winning.

But when you face teams that can match you, the tone changes a lot, doesn't it? Teams with speed on defense have traditionally played GSU a lot tougher. This goes to both teams that see you yearly, and those that do not. Coincidence? I think not.

It's the players that make the difference.

[straightshooter]

GSU doesn't beat 1A teams because of which 1A teams they play. In the past 10 years here are the 1A's that have the balls to schedule GSU:

Florida
Florida State
Miami
Georgia
Auburn
Oregon State under Dennis Erickson

How do you think everyone else in 1AA would fare against that list? Next time do your homework before making such asinine assumptions.

[Pards Rule]

App State 28
Lafayette 20

See I'm not a homer!

[blueballs]

I will tell you it's lame.

If this offense is so tough to defend, and rarely seen, why is it that in the last 25 years, of the few I-A teams that have stuck with the flexbone triple option, only one (Air Force) has any real history of consistent success year after year?

Why is it that GSU can't beat any I-A teams they play? I mean you have this built in advantage here with your unusual offense, right?

Perhaps it's because the athletes do matter most. If you are faster or stronger than your opponents, you'll find success - and GSU has this advantage many times. Your scheme relies on speed, and speed you have. Without that speed, you're not winning.

But when you face teams that can match you, the tone changes a lot, doesn't it? Teams with speed on defense have traditionally played GSU a lot tougher. This goes to both teams that see you yearly, and those that do not. Coincidence? I think not.

It's the players that make the difference.

I can answer this post in a no smack fashion. In some respects you are right, but I can add to your take.

The triple option had great success at Nebraska throughout the 1990's. They won 2 NC's and got jipped out of a 3rd running an option based attack. Since they abandoned it, they seem to have lost their identity as a program and the wins are fewer and far between.

Look at what PJ has done at Navy in 4 years with a team that is probably less talented than most of the teams they play.

Perhaps the option scheme has not been used as much at the BCS level as it is MOL an NFL minor league and the QB's are too valuable a quantity to get hit consistently. Plus many fans who aren't that saavy only want to see the ball thrown around the field and would see the FB belly play as boring- and they are the ones who donate and buy tickets. Just a thought...

What the option offense ideally should do is take the focus somewhat away from size and depth and put it on discipline and execution. You'll notice that all of GSU's QB's since Tracy Ham are red-shirts and that we're usually at a size disadvantage. The execution, speed, and uniqueness of the offense mitigate advantages to a certain extent. The option offense is hard to prepare for, hard to adjust to, and the execution and tempo can offset size and depth differences. However, huge talent differences can't be mitigated with just scheme.

Why hasn't GSU beaten a 1-A team? That's an easy one- look at who we've played. The last several 1-A's GSU played were UGA in 00 (ranked 7th) and
04 (ranked 4th), Oregon State in 99 (bowl team who won 8 games, we lost by 7 and the game ended with GSU on OSU's 20), UF (won NC) in 96, Miami (top 5 ranking) before that- I can't remember the year. We can't get games against the bottom tier of the BCS conferences like some of our 1-AA brethren do, and ironically the option offense is given as an excuse more often than not.

[Black and Gold Express]

I can answer this post in a no smack fashion. In some respects you are right, but I can add to your take.

I didn't include Nebraska because they ran the I-formation triple option, which to me is different in that the put more beef on the front lines with at least one TE, and is much more conducive to the power game. The flexbone option uses those smaller slotbacks and is built more on speed. Which is why I believe it's used in the service academies, since it's easier for them to find speed with some than size with a lot of speed. It also leaves a lot of the decision making with the quarterbacks, and there's no lack of brainpower at the academies.

I honestly believe the I-A schools that use the "option" excuse for not playing GSU are using that as a nice way to cover up the real fact, one GSU shares with any and all good I-AA teams - they don't want to risk being beaten by a lower-division team.

If GSU falls on hard times, I don't think mid-level I-A schools would be nearly as weary of playing you guys. But again, this is a testament to your athletes moreso than your scheme.

The best scheme will fail if the players aren't there. And the best scheme can be stopped if the defense puts out players that match up with the offense well. If the scheme was the difference maker, you'd see option teams winning titles left and right. But it's the teams with the best talent that win way more often than not.

Put the best talent with a scheme that fits them, that's when you've got something.

[blueballs]

Put the best talent with a scheme that fits them, that's when you've got something.

Yep... :nod:

[GreatAppSt]

@ New Hampshire
....Colgate.......................@UNH
........................................NIU
@ Northern Iowa
....Eastern [email protected]
.................................................. .UM
@ Montana
....Cal Poly.........................UM
.................................... @TSSM
@ Texas State
....Georgia Southern
.................................................. .....................@ NOOGA UNH :mad: :(



@ Hampton
....Richmond....................UR
....................................@FU
@ Furman
....Nicholls State.............................FU............ ASU
...............................................@ ASU
@ Southern Illinois
....Eastern Illinois..............SIU
..................................@ASU
@ Appalachian State
....Lafayette

[Spider]

Spidahs over HU.....

[bcrawf]

WE ARE U-N-I :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

[JohnStOnge]

Holy Crap! I can't believe my eyes. Thanks for the very tough to come by PL Props. I would be curious to have seen the predictions if it was Lehigh that was playing App. State. Probably would have been considered a closer match. Yet, Lafayette beats Lehigh and still we can't hang...whatever, we'll see.


I've always had more faith in power ratings than most others have. Many times in the past power ratings have given top Patriot League teams more respect than many fans have.

The way I look at it, the only thing you can really do to try to assess the relative strengths of what various teams is look at how they did while considering how strong their opponents were. Power ratings do that, and they do it while considering the outcomes of all games (except D2 games, if it's Sagarin) comprehensively in a way no human thought process can.

Having said all that, I must admit that I do look at Lafayette beating Appalachian State as the most unlikely outcome of any in the playoffs. In Sagarin App is at #1 and Lafayette is at #50. In Massey it's #1 vs. #43.

In the GPI it's #1 vs. #41. Whatever system you use it's the highest rated I-AA team in the playoffs vs. the lowest rated one.

For what it's worth Sagarin's system makes App a 21 point favorite. From studying these things I know that Sagarin's system, year in and year out, is about as good as it's going to get in anticipating point spreads (even though it doesn't consider D2 games Ralph and Massey's system doesn't provide predctions in an easy format). Also, from studying it over the years I'd say that teams favored by 21 points by Sagarin's system should win about 93 percent of the time.

To put it in perspective: Using Sagarin I'd say the odds of Lafayette beating Appalchian State at Boone are about the same as the odds of Appalachian State beating Iowa of the Big 10 at the Hawkeyes' place.

Plus, though I haven't seen Lafayette play I have seen App State on TV vs. LSU. The Mountaineers appear to be very good.

It's a long shot. Then again, long shots do hit at times.

[JohnStOnge]

But the reality is that, in a playoff-type game, Sagarin may as well be a random number generator.

Vegas puts out I-AA lines. I'll post when I see them, probably Wednesday or Thursday. If Nicholls is favored over Furman, I'll also be making a lot of money.

Th closer the spread the higher the likelyhood that the favorite will lose. That's true whether you're talking about Sagarin, another good power rating system, or the Vegas line.

Sagarin's system has been historically been very close to the Vegas Line in terms of picking winners. Typically, both are between 70 and 75 percent. Over the past 6 complete years (1999-2004), the line has achieved a slightly higher percent correct 4 times while Sagarin has 2 times (considering only games for which lines were established). Obviously, that's well within what could occur with two systems of equal effectiveness by chance.

The same is true with each individual year. The percent correct difference between the two each time is well within what can be accounted for by chance.

That kind of thing is, in fact, one of the things that generated a lot of respect on my part for power ratings. Lines are adjusted as people betting on football put more money on one side or the other. Those people are looking at how the teams match up, injuries, weather, whether or not the quarterback broke up with his girlfriend, etc.

Yet the better power rating models do just as well...or so close to as well that the difference is almost imperceptible The guys that generate those models do an amazing job.

Essentially, saying someone is favored by the better models carries as much credibility, based on historical success in prediction, as the line does.

[Wellington]

UNH: 38
Colgate: 13

Eastern Washington: 41
Northern Iowa: 35

Montana: 24
Cal Poly: 17

GSU: 45
Texas State: 35

Appalachian State: 48
Laffeyette: 10

Southern Illinois: 14
Eastern Illinois: 6

Furman: 17
Nichols State: 10

Richmond: 17
Hampton: 27

[hapapp]

I think many people are selling Lafayette short. I think the combination of their good defense and the elements will make for a low scoring game. I would think something in the 21-17 realm would be a likely outcome in favor of the Apps.

[JohnStOnge]

If this offense is so tough to defend, and rarely seen, why is it that in the last 25 years, of the few I-A teams that have stuck with the flexbone triple option, only one (Air Force) has any real history of consistent success year after year?

Why is it that GSU can't beat any I-A teams they play? I mean you have this built in advantage here with your unusual offense, right?

Perhaps it's because the athletes do matter most. If you are faster or stronger than your opponents, you'll find success - and GSU has this advantage many times. Your scheme relies on speed, and speed you have. Without that speed, you're not winning.

But when you face teams that can match you, the tone changes a lot, doesn't it? Teams with speed on defense have traditionally played GSU a lot tougher. This goes to both teams that see you yearly, and those that do not. Coincidence? I think not.

It's the players that make the difference.

What I've been told is that major I-A teams are reluctant to adopt a pure option style offense because they're afraid it will hurt their recruiting. Big time recruits are thinking NFL.

Georgia Southern hasn't beaten any I-A teams because, in general, it has played very strong I-A teams like Georgia and Florida State. However, in general, its offense has done well in such games. Last year, for example, Georgia Southern rushed for 294 yards against Georgia and scored more points against the Bulldog defense (28) than any other Bulldog opponent. They lost because their defense couldn't handle a solid SEC caliber offense.

Same thing in 1999 when GSU rushed for well over 300 yards on a bowl bound Oregon State team but lost 48-41.

When Florida won its only national championship, a GSU squad that didn't even make the playoffs rushed for over 300 yards on the Gators.

The offense works. One thing about those teams that HAVE used it in I-A is that they've been able to move the ball against teams with far more talent than they have. It's an equalizer.

I think the idea that speed stops it is a myth. Of course good defensive speed helps against any offense. If you've got great speed on defense and "lock down" corners you'll snuff a pass-oriented spread offense.

But Georgia Southern's offense makes a team restrain its speed. It has to stay disciplined and, as they say, play "assignment football." If the opponent is too aggressive and runs to quickly with the flow of the play it just makes it easier to influence them in one direction and let the quarterback read to take advantage of it.

I think Nebraska missed a big opportunity. If it was going to change coaches it should've hired Paul Johnson. The Huskers already had option personel.

If a major program would commit to that offense and recruit the kind of players it takes to make it work, it'd work. They'd have their pick of the best option quarterback, the best option style offensive linement, etc.

And if the concern is not having NFL type players, so what? You don't NEED NFL type players to run option offense. You need players suited to run the option.

Georgia Southern is by no means the top I-AA producer of NFL talent over the years. If you just looked at the numbers of players who've gone to the NFL you'd never suspect it's the most successful I-AA program in terms of winning titles. But it is. And it's not because they've have more speed or talent than anybody else. It's because they've run that offense and they've run it well.

[GreatAppSt]

I think many people are selling Lafayette short. I think the combination of their good defense and the elements will make for a low scoring game. I would think something in the 21-17 realm would be a likely outcome in favor of the Apps.

My thoughts as well, I do think App will win but the margin will not be huge as so many have predicted. The Leopards are a better squad than that.

[JohnStOnge]

This discussion of Georgia Southern reminds me of an example of the fact that it's not just having superior talent. That example is the 1989 National Championship game between GSU and Stephen F. Austin. Five players off that Stephen F. Austin team, includiing Larry Centers and a guy that was an all pro caliber safety for the 49ers (his name escapes me now) for many years during San Fransico's glory years, went in the NFL draft. That's incredible for a I-AA team even back in the days when there were more rounds.

You could watch the game and see that SFA had more impressive athletes. But Georgia Southern won. It was close and came down to the wire but they won.

And they darned sure didn't win because they had more speed or more talent.

[GrizSweeper]

Montana 17
Cal Poly 13

One touchdown coming from the D/special teams will propell the Griz to a first round victory in Missoula. We definitely need Hilliard to have another huge day against Poly and Cole just needs to be smart. We saw that he has the ability to make the throws in the Idaho State game, but since then he's been in a funk. Cal Poly has a frosh QB as well and I think we need to take advantage of that. Stack the box against there running back Noble (145 ypg) and make this unproven QB beat us on his own. Hope the Griz pull this one out.

[SeattleGriz]

UNH v Colgate W:UNH
I think UNH is suspect to a strong defensive front four, but Colgate doesn't have that being 77th in the nation in sacks.

UNI vs EWU W:EWU
Although I respect UNI's dome, I just think the Eagles are used to playing in front of rabid crowds and will play inspired since they were given a 2nd chance.

UM vs Cal W:UM
I have been worried about the Griz before entering the playoffs and they have always made me look like an ass. Griz step it up to win.

Texas St vs GSU W:Texas
Even though I want GSU to win so we can play them in Missoula, I still feel that they are suspect to good teams. Plus Texas St has seen a very similar version of the triple option.

Hampton vs Richmond W:Richmond
Only thing I could go on here was the combined records of opponents for each team (HU:43-56 Rich: 56-50); and the fact Richmond is more balanced.

Furman vs Nicholls W:Furman
Furman has zero defense with a great balanced offense which is too much for Nicholls since they are even worse at passing than GSU.

Eastern vs Southern Illinois W:SIU
Have you seen EIU's second half of the season? I could have beaten almost all those teams by myself, thus not enough quality play this late in the season. SIU has way too much going to lose.

App State vs Lafayette W:App
App has way too much balance and firepower for Lafayette to hang.

[Kill'em]

What I've been told is that major I-A teams are reluctant to adopt a pure option style offense because they're afraid it will hurt their recruiting. Big time recruits are thinking NFL.

Georgia Southern hasn't beaten any I-A teams because, in general, it has played very strong I-A teams like Georgia and Florida State. However, in general, its offense has done well in such games. Last year, for example, Georgia Southern rushed for 294 yards against Georgia and scored more points against the Bulldog defense (28) than any other Bulldog opponent. They lost because their defense couldn't handle a solid SEC caliber offense.

Same thing in 1999 when GSU rushed for well over 300 yards on a bowl bound Oregon State team but lost 48-41.

When Florida won its only national championship, a GSU squad that didn't even make the playoffs rushed for over 300 yards on the Gators.

The offense works. One thing about those teams that HAVE used it in I-A is that they've been able to move the ball against teams with far more talent than they have. It's an equalizer.

I think the idea that speed stops it is a myth. Of course good defensive speed helps against any offense. If you've got great speed on defense and "lock down" corners you'll snuff a pass-oriented spread offense.

But Georgia Southern's offense makes a team restrain its speed. It has to stay disciplined and, as they say, play "assignment football." If the opponent is too aggressive and runs to quickly with the flow of the play it just makes it easier to influence them in one direction and let the quarterback read to take advantage of it.

I think Nebraska missed a big opportunity. If it was going to change coaches it should've hired Paul Johnson. The Huskers already had option personel.

If a major program would commit to that offense and recruit the kind of players it takes to make it work, it'd work. They'd have their pick of the best option quarterback, the best option style offensive linement, etc.

And if the concern is not having NFL type players, so what? You don't NEED NFL type players to run option offense. You need players suited to run the option.

Georgia Southern is by no means the top I-AA producer of NFL talent over the years. If you just looked at the numbers of players who've gone to the NFL you'd never suspect it's the most successful I-AA program in terms of winning titles. But it is. And it's not because they've have more speed or talent than anybody else. It's because they've run that offense and they've run it well.
Damn, I couldn't have put it better. B&G X misses my point entirely and I don't know why he's being such a "Richard" about it. The point is that Furman just saw the triple option and sees it at least once a year so it's not going to be a surprise to them. The reason our games are close are
1) Furman has a quick and talented defense and
2) They know what is coming. They are very disciplined and make very few mistakes.

Most GSU fans will agree, our games with them are usually defensive games. Yards are tough to get because Furman defenses our offense well. It's the same with App St..

[JohnStOnge]

You might score some points on GSU but you haven't seen any team with our speed. I think it will be a 14 point GSU win. The team that lost to McNeese is long gone.

They played Texas A&M. A&M does not have one of its better teams. But it's very likely that the Aggies have more overall team speed than anybody in I-AA.

I also think Georgia Southern fans as well as some media people tend to overestimate the Eagles' speed relative to other I-AA teams. I don't mean to say that Georgia Southern teams aren't on the fast end of the spectrum in I-AA, but there are teams out there every year in the Southland and elsewhere with comparable speed. It's running their system and running it well that's made Georgia Southern the dominant program it is.

Georgia Southern is not the program it is because it's had the best overall talent. Right now it's got three players in the NFL and that's an unusually high amount for that program. It is a great program. It is unarguably the most successful program on the field in the Division.

But it's in that position more because it runs a system and runs it well than because it has some overwhelming speed advantage over everybody it plays. It's not a level of speed beyond what Southland conference teams are accustomed to seeing in their league. In fact, Northwestern State is one that leaps to mind as a program that has probably had more overall team speed year in and year out than Georgia Southern has had.

[JohnStOnge]

Question: Does anybody out there think Georgia Southern was able to rush for 298 yards against Georgia last season because it had an overall team speed advantage?

[Cincy App]

Back to predictions...

UNH 34 Colgate 26
I expect Colgate to give UNH quite a scare but still fall a little short.

EWU 35 UNI 27
EWU is indebted to Montana St - don't be surprised if they take full advantage of it.

GSU 30 Texas St 28
Should be a great game. GSU's experience in big games will pull them through. I plan to tape the 2nd half and watch it Sat night when back from Boone.

Montana 26 Cal Poly 17
Cal Poly - welcome to the arctic! It's a different game in Missoula come playoff time!

ASU 31 Lafayette 14
Lafayette is a solid hard-nosed football team but ASU should pull away in the 2nd half.

Southern Ill. 28 Eastern Ill. 27
Home field advantage will inspire EIU but SIU has too many weapons.

Richmond 27 Hampton 24
Will be interesting how Hampton matches up outside the MEAC. Will it be a typical MEAC loss or is this team special like FAMU a few years ago?

Furman 30 Nicholls St 24
Nicholls will try to grind it out while Furman will mix it up on offense. Should be another good matchup but I like the SoCon to sweep the Southland on Saturday.

[APPST '93]

ASU wins easy. I would be surprised if Lafayette even scores. Although our second team will play the whole 4th quarter. There's hope you may score then? Lafayette only scored 7 at home to beat URI. It's going to be harder to score in Boone!

ASU 35

Laf 0

[ChickenMan]

Lafayette only scored 7 at home to beat URI. It's going to be harder to score in Boone!

ASU 35

Laf 0


That 7-0 win was vs Richmond... not URI (Rhode Island)

[Saint3333]

Does anyone see a correlation between ASU predictions and the number of posts?

I'm sure the players are taking LC more seriously than a lot of our fans. I think we will win, but not by 3-4 TDs like some here. This is the playoffs, not Elon, Citadel, or CCU.

[APPST '93]

You're right, it is the playoffs. As for CC, I think they could beat Lafayette and they only scored 3 on our "D". Oh, GSU could only scored 7 in Boone (and GSU has a lot of fire power). Our boys are focused and will be ready.

[Kill'em]

They played Texas A&M. A&M does not have one of its better teams. But it's very likely that the Aggies have more overall team speed than anybody in I-AA.

I also think Georgia Southern fans as well as some media people tend to overestimate the Eagles' speed relative to other I-AA teams. I don't mean to say that Georgia Southern teams aren't on the fast end of the spectrum in I-AA, but there are teams out there every year in the Southland and elsewhere with comparable speed. It's running their system and running it well that's made Georgia Southern the dominant program it is.

Georgia Southern is not the program it is because it's had the best overall talent. Right now it's got three players in the NFL and that's an unusually high amount for that program. It is a great program. It is unarguably the most successful program on the field in the Division.

But it's in that position more because it runs a system and runs it well than because it has some overwhelming speed advantage over everybody it plays. It's not a level of speed beyond what Southland conference teams are accustomed to seeing in their league. In fact, Northwestern State is one that leaps to mind as a program that has probably had more overall team speed year in and year out than Georgia Southern has had.
Too many people think Georgia Southern relies totally on speed and a good system rather than talent, which is far from the truth. Our team speed is comparable to anyone in the nation. What differentiates us is size. Our team is smaller than many. This has the most to do with why so few GSU players make it in the NFL. The talent is there but it is often overshadowed because of the speed. It is one of the top factors in recruiting. Not only do the "skill positions" need speed, but both lines and linebackers need speed as well. Why do you think we have so much success with a 270-280 pound offensive line and a 250 pound defensive line? Answer... they are good players!
To answer your question about getting 298 yards on uga, it was a combination of speed and a blocking scheme and style uga was not familiar with.

[colgate13]

Does anyone see a correlation between ASU predictions and the number of posts?


Very good point. I will try to keep that in mind when I form opinions about schools and fans. :beerchug:

[B&G]

The number of posts doesn't mean jack. I'm not going to elaborate. Here are my picks:

UNH over Colgate... 41-13, just a big disparity in talent

EWU over UNI... 36-34, could go either way. I know UNI are great in the dome but I always felt a passing team like EWU was suited for dome play.

Montana over Cal Poly... 27-24, even though the revenge factor scares me, it's just too hard to pick against UM at home.

TX St over GSU... 33-28, I know it's a faulty logic but I can't shake the gut feeling I have that one SoCon team is going down this weekend.

Richmond over Hampton... 20-14, I can't shake the fact that the MEAC doesn't fare well in the playoffs. Prove me wrong Hampton.

Furman over NSU... 38-28, will be close most of the game with FU pulling away at the end. Bobby Lamb does not impress me as a coach. Furman should've beaten App State by 14 points this year but Lamb went into the fetal position and let App back in the game. Otherwise, I'd say FU by 17 or 20.

SIU over EIU... 31-19, I have no explanation other than I feel SIU is better.

App over Laf... 37-20, I think App comes out pumped and builds an early lead. Laf will settle down and play tough but it will already be too late.

[slostang]

Too many people think Georgia Southern relies totally on speed and a good system rather than talent, which is far from the truth. Our team speed is comparable to anyone in the nation. What differentiates us is size. Our team is smaller than many. This has the most to do with why so few GSU players make it in the NFL. The talent is there but it is often overshadowed because of the speed. It is one of the top factors in recruiting. Not only do the "skill positions" need speed, but both lines and linebackers need speed as well. Why do you think we have so much success with a 270-280 pound offensive line and a 250 pound defensive line? Answer... they are good players!
To answer your question about getting 298 yards on uga, it was a combination of speed and a blocking scheme and style uga was not familiar with.

Kill'em, Cal Poly is similar to Georgia Southern in that we recruit speed and athleticism over size.

We have one of the smaller offensive lines in I-AA. Even our center pulls. We run spread option not the tripple option and we pass a little more than GSU. We start two O-linemen that are only 250 pounds but they can get out in front of a RB on a sweep to the outside. Our biggest D-lineman is only 270 pounds.

Now if we could only take home six National Championships like GSU. Good luck this week and may be I'll see you next week in Georgia.

[Kill'em]

Is your spread option game similar to the one Urban Meyer runs?

[slostang]

Is your spread option game similar to the one Urban Meyer runs?

Our offense is similiar to it in some ways but our QB is under the center more. To tell the truth it takes a little from from a few offenses. We run three WRs a hybred fullback (1/2 fullback 1/2 tight end, and he sifts and motions a lot) and a tailback.

Good luck Saturday and if we both win you will get to see it up close. I would love to make a trip to Georgia.

[MR. CHICKEN]

AN' DUH WINNERS ARE:

NEW HAMPSHIRE :asswhip:
EASTERN WASHINGTON :hurray:
GEORGIA SOUTHERN :eyebrow:
MONTANA :boring:

RICHMOND xsmoochx
NICHOLLS STATE :xmas:
APPALACHIAN STATE xprost2x
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS :nod:

BUK...BUK...BUK...BRRAAAWWWWKKKKK! :rotateh:

[footballer23]

UNH over Colgate
E. Washington over N. Iowa
Cal Poly over Montana
Georgia Southern over Texas St.
Hampton over Richmond
Furman over Nicholls St.
S. Illinois over E. Illinois
Appalachian St. over Lafayette

[Kill'em]

Amen! I hope we make it that far. If we both meet next week, send me a P.M. and I'll let you know where you can stay.

[GrizSweeper]

NH over Colgate
EWU over NIU
Montana over CP
GSU over Texas State
Richmond over Hampton
Furman over Nicholls State
SIU over EIU
App St over Lafayette

[leatherneck177]

UNH: 35
Colgate: 13

Northern Iowa: 35
Eastern Washington: 33

Montana: 28
Cal Poly: 7

GSU: 38
Texas State: 23

Appalachian State: 26
Lafayette: 9

Southern Illinois: 44
Eastern Illinois: 26

Furman: 29
Nichols State: 13

Richmond: 17
Hampton: 26

[NYSigma]

Richmond: 17
Hampton: 26

I like this Leatherneck177 guy!!

[spdram]

I just took him off of my Christmas card list:

Ridhmond 28
Hampton 17 :hurray:

[ngineer]

If Lafayette is anything like the team I saw in last year's 1st round vs UD... I expect that the game may be closer than many here expect. Lafayette was well coached and played hard... they didn't make mistakes and gave UD all they wanted. I know that was then and this is now... but the Leopards may be able to keep it closer than expected. Some here apparently have very short memories... as it's been proven before... the top of the Patriot League is tougher than most I-AA fans think.
And 10 of 11 starters on defense are the same. Appy better score early, the longer the Leopards hang around the more dangerous they become...I speak from experience. :(

[colgate13]

And 10 of 11 starters on defense are the same. Appy better score early, the longer the Leopards hang around the more dangerous they become...I speak from experience. :(

And FWIW the Lafayette defense was the best Colgate saw all year... better than UMass in week 2 when they were 'all everything'.

LC still has to prove they can score, but this should be a ball game folks.