Phillies Solidify Rotation

[bluehenbillk]

Jamie Moyer re-signed, 2 yr deal. And Chan Ho Park brought into be the #5 guy unless a Carrasco, Happ or Kendrick beat him out.

[whitey]

How much money did Moyer get?

[JMU DJ]

Hasn't been disclosed. Here's the ESPN article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3770432

Meh, this is what I expected out of the phillies... no flashy pickups, just the good ol' boys

[Touchdown Yosef]

I hate this move. That rotation is sub par at best. They need a solid #2 and Myers is not it. He has flashed of greatness but he is not consistent enough. The phils should be in the market for Lowe or even better Peavy.

[GannonFan]

Great job by the Phils - Moyer back in the fold means a rotation of Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton and probably Happ or Carasco, and they take a step up with Ibanez over Burrell. And they don't lose anyone else at all. So it's basically the same team that won the World Series, with Blanton for the whole year, one of the stud young pitchers for the whole year, and a better bat in left field. Can't complain about that at all, and if Utley can be back by June (or earlier) no reason why they Phils can't be right back in this thing again and go for the 3-peat in the NL East. xthumbsupx

[GannonFan]

I hate this move. That rotation is sub par at best. They need a solid #2 and Myers is not it. He has flashed of greatness but he is not consistent enough. The phils should be in the market for Lowe or even better Peavy.

Yeah, sub par and World P'n Champs. What a bummer. xlolx

Myers is good when he has to be, and Lowe isn't really all that much better. Heck, the Phils were deciding between Lowe and Moyer so it's not like they had that high of an opinion of Lowe. And Peavy wasn't coming to the East Coast anyway so thinking the Phils had a shot at him is silly. Plus what they would have to give up for Peavy (Carasco and Donald probably, if not more), would've depleted an already thin minor league system. Heck, they're counting on Donald being the 3B in 2010 and Carasco they see in the rotation this year probably.

[Touchdown Yosef]

Great job by the Phils - Moyer back in the fold means a rotation of Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton and probably Happ or Carasco, and they take a step up with Ibanez over Burrell. And they don't lose anyone else at all. So it's basically the same team that won the World Series, with Blanton for the whole year, one of the stud young pitchers for the whole year, and a better bat in left field. Can't complain about that at all, and if Utley can be back by June (or earlier) no reason why they Phils can't be right back in this thing again and go for the 3-peat in the NL East. xthumbsupx

Sure there is, a shotty starting rotation. Unless one of these young arms really steps up this rotation will not carry them back to the Series.

[Touchdown Yosef]

Yeah, sub par and World P'n Champs. What a bummer. xlolx

Myers is good when he has to be, and Lowe isn't really all that much better. Heck, the Phils were deciding between Lowe and Moyer so it's not like they had that high of an opinion of Lowe. And Peavy wasn't coming to the East Coast anyway so thinking the Phils had a shot at him is silly. Plus what they would have to give up for Peavy (Carasco and Donald probably, if not more), would've depleted an already thin minor league system. Heck, they're counting on Donald being the 3B in 2010 and Carasco they see in the rotation this year probably.

The Phils have a great line up and an awesome bullpen but I just don't think this rotation can do it again. Hammels is the man but Myers will implode at some point. (i really wanted Burnett) but there are better pitchers out there than Moyer to fill that spot with. I sincerely hope that you are right though Gannon.

[JMU DJ]

Pitching is something the phils have had to work on the past few years and in my opinion, have done very little. Yes we have a great closer and Blanton turned out to be good, but initially these pitchers were "tainted goods." With what the Mets are doing to sure up their rotation, the phils needed to do something to ensure a solid rotation, I'm not to sure they have.

[GannonFan]

Pitching is something the phils have had to work on the past few years and in my opinion, have done very little. Yes we have a great closer and Blanton turned out to be good, but initially these pitchers were "tainted goods." With what the Mets are doing to sure up their rotation, the phils needed to do something to ensure a solid rotation, I'm not to sure they have.

What do the Mets have that's so much better than what the Phils have? Starting rotation they have Santana and Maine - that's not appreciably better than Hamels and Myers. After that I'm not even sure who the starters are as Perez is a free agent (and terribly inconsistent) and I don't think they're bring Pedro back this year, although if they did that would only help the Phils as he's done. And we'll have to wait to see if their bullpen woes are solved, and there's still the issue of their lineup not being as good as the Phils and with them being far less clutch than the Phils are.

[GannonFan]

The Phils have a great line up and an awesome bullpen but I just don't think this rotation can do it again. Hammels is the man but Myers will implode at some point. (i really wanted Burnett) but there are better pitchers out there than Moyer to fill that spot with. I sincerely hope that you are right though Gannon.

Burnett's only year when he was healthy was last year, which coincidentally was his last before free agency. He's basically a .500 pitcher, he had a 4+ ERA last year, and I couldn't see him doing well in Philly, let alone staying healthy. And all that for $16M a year for 5 years to boot! I'd take Lowe over Burnett.

[whitey]

Santana + Pelfrey is probably only slightly. And let me stress slightly better than Hamels + Moyer.

But yeah the Mets don't really have anything else in the rotation beyond John Maine right now. Oliver Perez is a FA and has Scott Boras as his agent. So I don't know if the Mets will bring him back. Maybe if he brings down his asking price and years.

Maybe JMUDJ meant what the Mets are doing to sure up their bullpen (not rotation)?

The Mets will sign (or trade) two more starting pitchers. But I don't see them going after Lowe or Sheets. More like some combination of Perez/Garland/Wolf which still wouldn't be bad.

[GannonFan]

Santana + Pelfrey is probably only slightly. And let me stress slightly better than Hamels + Moyer.

But yeah the Mets don't really have anything else in the rotation beyond John Maine right now. Oliver Perez is a FA and has Scott Boras as his agent. So I don't know if the Mets will bring him back. Maybe if he brings down his asking price and years.

Maybe JMUDJ meant what the Mets are doing to sure up their bullpen (not rotation)?

The Mets will sign (or trade) two more starting pitchers. But I don't see them going after Lowe or Sheets. More like some combination of Perez/Garland/Wolf which still wouldn't be bad.

I agree, and from a starting rotation standpoint, I don't see the Mets having anything much better than the Phils, if it's better at all. And as the Phils bullpen is better and the everyday lineup is better, I like the Phils chances to end up top of the division again this year. It's baseball so things could happen to go against that, but right now the Phils look pretty good in the NL East.

[whitey]

If the Mets sign Lowe they'll have a better rotation for sure. But I don't see it happening. Rumor has it the Mets will not increase payroll in 2009 from what they spent in 2008. That means they still have about $16MM to spend on 2 starting pitchers. You can't get Lowe + Garland/Wolf for that.

Bullpens are tricky to predict. There is a lot of variance there. The Phillies bullpen was outstanding in 2008. They could just as easily regress in 2009 or they could be just as good. No one knows. That said the Mets bullpen is totally different than last years and the offseason has really only been going on for a few weeks.

Gone: Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Luis Ayala, Billy Wagner

Welcome: K-Rod, JJ Putz, Sean Green

The Mets have certainly improved their bullpen. Is it as good or better than the Phillies pen? I dunno...tough to tell. Guess we'll find out. Ha!

[JoltinJoe]

The Mets' ability to pay for free agents may be impacted by Fred Wilpon's losses in his Bernard Madoff investments. Freakin' crook apparently wiped out a few of his clients; hopefully, Wilpon's losses are manageable.

BTW, if the impeccable Mr. Madoff is a fraud, I think there's got to be a few more out there like him.

[JMU DJ]

What do the Mets have that's so much better than what the Phils have? Starting rotation they have Santana and Maine - that's not appreciably better than Hamels and Myers. After that I'm not even sure who the starters are as Perez is a free agent (and terribly inconsistent) and I don't think they're bring Pedro back this year, although if they did that would only help the Phils as he's done. And we'll have to wait to see if their bullpen woes are solved, and there's still the issue of their lineup not being as good as the Phils and with them being far less clutch than the Phils are.

They solved their closer situation by picking up K-Rod. They knew they had a problem and solved it. The main problem the Mets had this year was blowing something like 20-40 games once their bullpen came in. Definitely don't think they will be having that problem this year. I'm not comparing hitting lineups here, just pitching. Phils pitching doesn't have a problem, excellent bullpen, and the rotation is O.K. but can be scary to watch if left in past the 5th or 6th inning (except for Cole).

NOTE: I posted this prior to reading all of your discussion about the Mets bullpen. That was the main problem with their team and they fixed it.

[GannonFan]

Now all the Mets need to do is to correct the deer in headlights look that David Wright had plastered to his face in September. It wasn't just the bullpen that has caused two years of collapses by the Mets.

[ngineer]

I think the rotation is 'workable'...barring injuries. Blanton may prove to be better than we expect. I also think Feliz at third base will have an improved 2009 now that he's had a year under his belt in Philly.

[bluehenbillk]

I'd think if the Phils & Mets are within 3-5 games of each other coming into 9/1 the "choke-artists" in the Mets will come to the forefront again. Say all you want about their improved bullpen but other than Delgado their whole lineup crashed & burned last year in the stretch.

[whitey]

First of all the Mets and Phillies scored the same amount of runs last year. Both teams have excellent offenses. That addition of Ibanez is not a major improvement over Burrell offensively, if even at all. And he's actually worse in the field so at the very least it's a wash and potentially a downgrade.

You are way off on Wright. He has a career line of: .327/.395/.554/.949 in September. He's not the reason the Mets fell short last year because last year he put up practically the same numbers. He was also the best hitter on the team in September of 2007. If you want to blame the collapses on someone it's certainly shouldn't be David Wright. So point your fingers elsewhere.

If I wanted to blame someone for last year I'm blaming Omar Minaya. He put together a terrible bullpen and by the time the deadline hit the entire world knew it was terrible and he did pretty much nothing except add Luis Ayala (big freakin' whoop!). I agree with you in that it wasn't just the bullpen's fault that the team played another terrible September but most of the blame lies with them + Minaya.

[whitey]

their whole lineup crashed & burned last year in the stretch.

O RLY?

David Wright: .340/.416/.577/.993
Carlos Delgado: .340/.400/.649/1.049
Carlos Beltran: .344/.440/.645/1.086

Jose Reyes had a subpar (but not terrible) September. Daniel Murphy was also solid in September. The Mets scored 799 runs last year in 6 months. In September they scored 125 runs which is roughly 1/6 of 799. The Mets offense did in September what they did all year.

The Mets bullpen on the other hand had a 5.02 ERA in the second half of the season and were close to as bad in the September (I think the pens worse month was actually August).

[whitey]

And just for the record I'm not saying that by shedding the dead weight in the bullpen and adding K-Rod, Putz and Green the Mets September woes are over. It's impossible to tell in December. They are going to have to prove it first. But at the very least they've made a big improvement in the pen (on paper). Unfortunately it still might not be enough.

[gmoney55]

See I think the Phils fans sell their own team short somewhat when they say the Mets choked last year. The Phils came out and took that division by going something like 13-3 in the final 16 games. Mets were around 8-9 during that span, which would have won it if the Phils had just played around average. 2007 was a choke for sure.

[whitey]

I agree. I think they just like saying that the Mets choked last year. It's obviously more fun that way. But in reality the Phillies got insanely hot and the Mets bullpen was just terrible and they just couldn't overcome that no matter what they did.

[GannonFan]

First of all the Mets and Phillies scored the same amount of runs last year. Both teams have excellent offenses. That addition of Ibanez is not a major improvement over Burrell offensively, if even at all. And he's actually worse in the field so at the very least it's a wash and potentially a downgrade.

You are way off on Wright. He has a career line of: .327/.395/.554/.949 in September. He's not the reason the Mets fell short last year because last year he put up practically the same numbers. He was also the best hitter on the team in September of 2007. If you want to blame the collapses on someone it's certainly shouldn't be David Wright. So point your fingers elsewhere.

If I wanted to blame someone for last year I'm blaming Omar Minaya. He put together a terrible bullpen and by the time the deadline hit the entire world knew it was terrible and he did pretty much nothing except add Luis Ayala (big freakin' whoop!). I agree with you in that it wasn't just the bullpen's fault that the team played another terrible September but most of the blame lies with them + Minaya.


O RLY?

David Wright: .340/.416/.577/.993
Carlos Delgado: .340/.400/.649/1.049
Carlos Beltran: .344/.440/.645/1.086

Jose Reyes had a subpar (but not terrible) September. Daniel Murphy was also solid in September. The Mets scored 799 runs last year in 6 months. In September they scored 125 runs which is roughly 1/6 of 799. The Mets offense did in September what they did all year.

The Mets bullpen on the other hand had a 5.02 ERA in the second half of the season and were close to as bad in the September (I think the pens worse month was actually August).

Numbers don't always tell the whole story. Consistency for the Mets offense was a major problem as well down the stretch. Lots of runs and hits in one game followed by nothing in following games. The numbers average out well but in reality they lost several games down the stretch due to a non-clutch offense. And even with all the problems the bullpen gave them during the year, they entered the last series of the year with their fate in their hands and they score 5 runs in 3 games and were only a Santana gem away from being swept. It's like having a whole team of Bobby Abreu's - the numbers look good, but when it gets to the nitty-gritty they come up short.

[GannonFan]

I agree. I think they just like saying that the Mets choked last year. It's obviously more fun that way. But in reality the Phillies got insanely hot and the Mets bullpen was just terrible and they just couldn't overcome that no matter what they did.

That's the difference between the two teams these past two years - when it gets tight at the end of the season the Phillies flourish and find ways to win - the Mets flounder and find ways to lose.

[whitey]

That's the difference between the two teams these past two years - when it gets tight at the end of the season the Phillies flourish and find ways to win - the Mets flounder and find ways to lose.

Yep, basically. These two teams have been very evenly matched the last two seasons. And it's looking like they'll be evenly matched going into 2009 as well. The Phillies have just played ridiculously good in September and the Mets have just been average:

September Records:
2008 Phillies: 17-8
2007 Phillies: 17-11

2008 Mets: 13-12
2007 Mets: 14-14

[JMU DJ]

I have to kind of agree with the Mets fan (Whitey). Numbers may not count for much when it comes to who plays well down the stretch, but you have to consider that if the Mets hitting is consistent in every month except for September and their bullpen is no longer blowing games, how many games will the Phillies have to over come in September in order to take first place or even a wild card? 2007 was pure luck that the Mets were able to choke out those last 10 games and I think if it hadn't been for their garbage bull pen, the Mets and Phils would have been fighting longer over 1st place in the division as well as wild card position. Remember, the Mets were in first place in the NL East at one point mid season with their garbage bull pen.

[whitey]

the Mets were in first place in the NL East at one point mid season with their garbage bull pen.

The Mets were in first place until September 15th I think. The the Phillies went 10-3 to close out the season. The Mets on the other hand went 6-7 the last 13 games. And I think the bullpen blew leads in 4 (maybe 5) of those 7 losses.

[whitey]

The numbers average out well but in reality they lost several games down the stretch due to a non-clutch offense. And even with all the problems the bullpen gave them during the year, they entered the last series of the year with their fate in their hands and they score 5 runs in 3 games and were only a Santana gem away from being swept.

That's true about the last series. The Mets offense didn't do **** against the Marlins those three games. But in the 10 games before that the Mets offense showed up in every game but two and still wound up losing 5 of them:

150 NYM @WSN L 0-1
151 NYM @WSN W 9-7
152 NYM @WSN W 7-2
153 NYM @ATL W 9-5
154 NYM @ATL L 2-4
155 NYM @ATL L 6-7
156 NYM CHC L 5-9
157 NYM CHC W 6-2
158 NYM CHC L 6-9
159 NYM CHC W 7-6

[Hoyadestroya85]

I'd argue that the Metropolitans overachieved down the stretch.. they were playing around Minaya's apathy. lets see how the Phillies would have done without Lidge

[GannonFan]

That's true about the last series. The Mets offense didn't do **** against the Marlins those three games. But in the 10 games before that the Mets offense showed up in every game but two and still wound up losing 5 of them:

150 NYM @WSN L 0-1
151 NYM @WSN W 9-7
152 NYM @WSN W 7-2
153 NYM @ATL W 9-5
154 NYM @ATL L 2-4
155 NYM @ATL L 6-7
156 NYM CHC L 5-9
157 NYM CHC W 6-2
158 NYM CHC L 6-9
159 NYM CHC W 7-6

Wasn't all the bullpen's fault either. Again, outside of Santana, the Mets didn't have a honest-to-goodness reliable starter. Maine sort of fit the bill, but then the other 3 slots in the rotation were an absolute crap shoot. That will still be a problem this year for the Mets no matter who they pick up. The Phils rotation may not be stellar, but Myers, Moyer, and Blanton have at least shown the ability to bear down and pitch some quality games down the stretch and in the playoffs - heck, even Happ has done so as well.

[GannonFan]

I'd argue that the Metropolitans overachieved down the stretch.. they were playing around Minaya's apathy. lets see how the Phillies would have done without Lidge

They didn't have Lidge in '07 when they did the same thing. xthumbsupx

[whitey]

GannonFan,

If the Mets don't bring back Oliver Perez and sign a couple of average starting pitchers like Garland instead how exactly is the rotation going to be a problem for the Mets? You also keep ignoring Mike Pelfrey. Who had a breakout year last year. Also John Maine didn't even pitch in September last year. He was hurt.

[whitey]

The Mets' ability to pay for free agents may be impacted by Fred Wilpon's losses in his Bernard Madoff investments. Freakin' crook apparently wiped out a few of his clients; hopefully, Wilpon's losses are manageable.

Apparently Wilpon lost $300MM. Ouch! But he's told Omar not to change a thing because of it. The Mets are a self sufficient franchise. The NY Times thinks that the worst thing that could happen is that Wilpon is forced to sell all or part of the team. Which might not be bad anyway. :D

[GannonFan]

GannonFan,

If the Mets don't bring back Oliver Perez and sign a couple of average starting pitchers like Garland instead how exactly is the rotation going to be a problem for the Mets? You also keep ignoring Mike Pelfrey. Who had a breakout year last year. Also John Maine didn't even pitch in September last year. He was hurt.

Well, there's Santana and then basically not a lot else. I'll give you Maine, he's decent when healthy, but Garland's ERA was almost 5.00 last year and that wasn't even much above his career numbers. Maybe changing leagues could help, but will he last in New York? Wolf is by far a better pickup over Garland. And Pelfrey, eh, we'll see about him. He looked good at times last year and looked so so other times. But outside of Santana, there's no one to rely on and then you're back to hoping the offense delivers and that the bullpen can hold on and pitch that many innings.

[bluehenbillk]

O RLY?

David Wright: .340/.416/.577/.993
Carlos Delgado: .340/.400/.649/1.049
Carlos Beltran: .344/.440/.645/1.086

Jose Reyes had a subpar (but not terrible) September. Daniel Murphy was also solid in September. The Mets scored 799 runs last year in 6 months. In September they scored 125 runs which is roughly 1/6 of 799. The Mets offense did in September what they did all year.

The Mets bullpen on the other hand had a 5.02 ERA in the second half of the season and were close to as bad in the September (I think the pens worse month was actually August).

Here's some stats for you:

RISP for the year:

Beltran .286, Reyes .277, Delgado .277, Wright .243xwhistlex

Dobbs .321, Howard .320, Rollins .318, Utley .271

[whitey]

Garland, Wolf, Blanton, Myers are all about the same pitcher.

The Mets aren't just going to add one of Garland, Wolf, Perez, Garcia, Vazquez, etc. They are going to add two. Once that happens that means that both the Phillies and Mets rotations are roughly equal. If the Mets want to get ahead in this department they'll need to sign Lowe, but indications are that won't happen.

[whitey]

Here's some stats for you:

RISP for the year:

Beltran .286, Reyes .277, Delgado .277, Wright .243xwhistlex

Dobbs .321, Howard .320, Rollins .318, Utley .271

Too bad those sample sizes are statistically meaningless. Obviously they didn't perform as well as their Phillies counterparts last year. So let's look at a more meaningful sample size (their careers):

Wright: .300/.394 /.501
Reyes: .293 /.366 /.475
Beltran: .306 /.385 /.535
Delgado: .291 /.413/ .557

Dobbs: .284 /.345 /.447
Rollins: .290 /.379 /.479
Utley: .295 /.375 /.506
Howard: .282 /.427 /.582 <-- That's pretty sick.

So yeah. Looks to me like Dobbs and Rollins way over performed last year. While Wright way underperformed. These things tend to even out. Perhaps in 2009 we might see some different results.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that what some of the Phillies did last year is not sustainable. And the opposite holds true for Wright. He certainly can't be that bad with RISP again next year and maybe not ever that bad again the rest of his career.

[bluehenbillk]

Wait a minute, what we're talking about here is 2 years, 2 choke-jobs. 2 years the Phillies stepped up in September & took the division & the WS this fall.

The bottom line is, in the clutch, the Mets have folded tent as a team & the Phillies have thrived. Is there reason to believe this year will be any different??

[whitey]

Is there reason to believe this year will be any different??

Your question has two simple answers:

For Phillies fans: No, history tends to repeat itself.
For Mets fans: Yes, the Mets can't possibly do it 3 times in a row. It's practically mathematically impossible!

xlolx

[JMU DJ]

App State pulled a three peat...xwhistlex

[GannonFan]

Your question has two simple answers:

For Phillies fans: No, history tends to repeat itself.
For Mets fans: Yes, the Mets can't possibly do it 3 times in a row. It's practically mathematically impossible!

xlolx

I have faith in the Mets to beat all mathematical odds!!! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx :p

[phoenixphanatic21]

My response to the Phillies signing Chan Ho Park
xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox

[Hoyadestroya85]

Yeah.. Chan Ho Park is the only pitcher ever to give up two grand slams in one inning to the same player and that player was FERNANDO TATIS

[Ivytalk]

My response to the Phillies signing Chan Ho Park
xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox

My response is xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx

Chan Ho sucked in Texas but recovered somewhat in LA. I suspect that the TX version is correct. But he couldn't be worse than Adam Eaton. Could he?xconfusedx

[ngineer]

My response is xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx

Chan Ho sucked in Texas but recovered somewhat in LA. I suspect that the TX version is correct. But he couldn't be worse than Adam Eaton. Could he?xconfusedx

You got the that right...and BTW, what the hell are they going to do with poor Adam???xconfusedx

[Ivytalk]

[/B]

You got the that right...and BTW, what the hell are they going to do with poor Adam???xconfusedx

Pay him...but not play him!xbawlingx xbawlingx

[ngineer]

Pay him...but not play him!xbawlingx xbawlingx

He should be 'Eaton alive'....:D

[whitey]

Yeah.. Chan Ho Park is the only pitcher ever to give up two grand slams in one inning to the same player and that player was FERNANDO TATIS


LOL. Tatis is back on the Mets, btw.

[GannonFan]

Chan Ho Park is a place holder in the rotation for JA Happ or Carasco, nothing more. Once they're ready Park is a long reliever at best ala Clay Condrey.

[ngineer]

I agree. I see Happ and/or Kendrick in the mix. Happ I saw was mentioned in the failed DeRosa three-way deal. Glad to see they still have him, for now...